Are We Prepared Enough to Handle the Next “Big One”?

The Scope of Performance-based Design in Pakistan

International Seminar and Hands-on Training Workshop on

SEISMIC PERFORMANCE AND HEALTH ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURES
18th September 2018, NUST, Islamabad

Fawad A. Najam, PhD

Department of Structural Engineering
NUST Institute of Civil Engineering (NICE)
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE)
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)
H-12, Islamabad, Pakistan
Email: fawad@nice.nust.edu.pk, fawad.najam@gmail.com
Why This
Question?
Ground Shaking Hazard: Kashmir Earthquake (2005), Balakot,
Pakistan (Magnitude = 7.6 ~ 7.8)
 Structure
The Earthquake Problem
Linear/Nonlinear
Analysis Model

Characterization of
Future ground Seismic Ground
Motions
shaking

Epicenter
Epicenter
Estimation of Linear/Nonlinear
Site
Site
Fault
Fault Seismic Demands
Soil
Soil Site
SiteResponse
Response
Ground
Ground motioncan
motion can
bebe amplifiedby
amplified bysoil
soil
• Global-level Responses
Attenuation • Inter-story Responses
Seismic waves lengthen and diminish in strength
as they travel away from the ruptured fault. • Component-level
Hypocenter Responses
Hypocenter
(Focus) Seismic
SeismicWaves
Waves
(Focus)

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 4

 Simplifying the Problem

Simplified
Structural ………
Models
Triangular

Simplified
Seismic Simplified Estimation of Simplified
……… Analysis Seismic Demands Loading
………
Procedures

Modal Expansion
Any combination
of simplified
approaches

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 5

 Evolution in Structural Design Philosophy

V V
Lack of Knowledge on Elastic Forces
Earthquake Demand reduced for
and Building Capacity
Design by R

Vdes Vdes Inelastic

Linear Elastic Building
Response
Response

Yield
Max

Historical Approach:
Historical Approach: Traditional Codes:
Traditional Codes:
Earthquakeforces
Earthquake forces proportional to to
proportional Elastic earthquake
Elastic earthquake forcesforces
reduced reduced
for for
buildingmass
building mass (V(V
des = 5=
- 10% of Wt),of W)
5 - 10% linear design
design(V
des linear des==
(Vdes Vmax
Vmax/R) /R)

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 6

 Evolution in Structural Design Philosophy

Sa
Demand Reduced Based on
Inelastic Capacity of
Building
Current Trend:
a) Inelastic earthquake demand based on
inelastic capacity of building
b) Resolution of demand vs. capacity
Performance Point generates Performance Point
c) Design based on displacement, ∆des

des
SSdd

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 7

 The Big Question

Where We
Stand?
The Roadmap to Achieve Earthquake Resilience in Pakistan

Disaster

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 8

 The Roadmap to Achieve Earthquake Resilience in Pakistan

Education to
Research and Building Code General
Academics of Pakistan Public/Role of
Media

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 9

 Research and Academics – Challenges and Opportunities

Accurate Characterization of
Site/Soil Characteristics
Seismic Hazard

Structural Modeling Seismic Analysis Procedures

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 10

 Research and Academics – Challenges and Opportunities

Seismic Hazard

• Accurate Characterization of Seismic

Sources
• Ground Motion Prediction Equations
(GMPEs)/ Attenuation Models
• Ground Motion Characteristics
• Ground Motion Parameters
• PSHA and Deaggregation

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 11

Historical Seismicity of
Pakistan (<30Km Deep)
Historical Seismicity of
Pakistan (>150Km Deep)
The Building Code of
Pakistan (BCP 2007)

16
 How Safe are Our Buildings Against Earthquakes?

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 17

 Peak Ground
Acceleration (g)
 Design Response Spectrum (UBC 1997, p 2-38)

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 22

 Regional tectonic setting of
Pakistan

(Modified from Sarwar et al., 1979)

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment and Site-Amplification Mapping for Pakistan
 Peak Ground Peak Ground
Acceleration Acceleration
10% PE in 50-years 2% PE in 50-years

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and Site-Amplification Mapping for Pakistan
Spectral Acceleration Spectral Acceleration
at 0.2 sec at 0.2 sec
10% PE in 50-years 2% PE in 50-years

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and Site-Amplification Mapping for Pakistan
Spectral Acceleration Spectral Acceleration
at 1 sec at 1 sec
10% PE in 50-years 2% PE in 50-years

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and Site-Amplification Mapping for Pakistan
Spectral Acceleration Spectral Acceleration
at 2 sec at 2 sec
10% PE in 50-years 2% PE in 50-years

Source: Zaman S. (2016) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and Site-Amplification Mapping for Pakistan
 Research and Academics – Challenges and Opportunities

Site/Soil Characteristics

• Shear wave velocity (𝑽𝟑𝟎

𝒔 ) profile of the

country

• Dynamic characteristics of soil deposits

• Seismic amplification effects of local

sites

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 28

 Abbottabad, 8th October 2005

Source: Durrani et al., (2005) Kashmir earthquake

of 8th October 2005 – A quick look report
 How much we understand?

Abbottabad, 8th October 2005

1
0.9
0.8 Elastic Spectrum of EW
Component
0.7
0.6
SD
0.5 SC
SB
0.4 SA

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Period (sec)

Source: Durrani et al., (2005) Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005 – A quick look report

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 30

 Slope-derived 𝑽𝟑𝟎
𝒔
map for Pakistan
Color-coded circles by 𝑉𝑠30 (m/sec)
indicate the location of compared 𝑉𝑠30
measurements.

Man (Mansehra), Mar (Mardan) Pes

(Peshawar), Lah (Lahore), Que
(Quetta), Kar (Karachi).

Source: Zaman S. and Warnitchai P. (2016)

Shear-wave Velocity Measurement and Slope-
derived Shear-wave Velocity Map for Pakistan 31
Predicted 𝑉𝑠30 Map of Islamabad, Pakistan based
on remote-sensing data (Yong et al. 2008) (Left)
compared with first-order site-condition map of
Pakistan based on slope of topography and 𝑉𝑠30 in
the current study (Right)

(KC, Kalachetta; KM, Khairi Murat)

Source: Zaman S. and Warnitchai P. (2016)

Shear-wave Velocity Measurement and
Slope-derived Shear-wave Velocity Map for
Pakistan
 Circled areas are
susceptible to liquefaction

Source: Zaman S. and Warnitchai

P. (2016) Shear-wave Velocity
Measurement and Slope-derived
Shear-wave Velocity Map for
Pakistan
 Research and Academics – Challenges and Opportunities

Structural Modeling

• Nonlinear modeling of local structural

systems (bamboo/cribbage/dhajji
deewari, etc.)
• Soil-structure Interaction
• Modeling tools/Capacity building
• Modeling of historical buildings
• Modeling of poorly executed structures

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 34

 LOC

Jammu

Pakistan
India

Sialkot
 Jammu

LOC

River Tavi

Pakistan

India
Sialkot
Bridge on River Tavi
(Near Sailkot-Jammu Border)
 Poorly-executed Structures

• No approach Slab
• Visible corrosion and exposed bars from deck
• Inclined Cracks at bottom of various girders
• Open expansion joints
• Caving-in of deck form work
• Horizontal sway of bridge with observable deflections under moving traffic
• Unequal camber of various girders indicating unequal pre-stressing.

How would you model that?

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 39

Structural and Material Assessment of Baltit
Fort, Hunza, Gilgit Baltistan
 Research and Academics – Challenges and Opportunities

Seismic Analysis Procedures

• Linear Static Procedures

• Nonlinear Static Procedures
• Linear Dynamic Procedures
• Nonlinear Dynamic Procedures

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 42

 Relative Uncertainty
Structural
Models High Low

The Linear
Determination of Linear Response History
Detailed 3D Analysis (LRHA)
Seismic Demands Linear Model Procedure
The Response
Spectrum Analysis
(RSA) Procedure
Equivalent MDF
Model
The Equivalent
Analysis Procedures Static Force
Procedure

Equivalent SDF
Model

Static Single Lateral Static Multiple Lateral Ground Acceleration Seismic

Load Vector Load Vectors Records Loading

43
 Relative Uncertainty
Structural
Models High Low

The Detailed
Determination of Nonlinear NLRHA Procedure
Detailed 3D
Seismic Demands Nonlinear Model

The Multi-mode
Pushover Analysis
Procedures
Equivalent MDF
Model
The Nonlinear
Analysis Procedures Static Analysis
Procedures

Equivalent SDF
Model

Static Single Lateral Static Multiple Lateral Ground Acceleration Seismic

Load Vector Load Vectors Records Loading

44
 The Standard RSA Procedure (ASCE 7-10, IBS 2012, EC 8)

Linear Elastic Model Determine Spectral Acceleration Determine Elastic Base Shears Reduce Elastic Base Shear to account for
for each Significant Mode inelasticity

Spectral Acceleration (SA)

N

Force
𝐹𝑒𝑙
Stories 𝑆𝐴3
For Initial … 𝑅 = Response Modification
Viscous Damping Factor, ASCE 7 (or
Behavior Factor, EC 8)
𝑆𝐴2
𝜙1 𝜙2 𝜙3 𝐹𝑖𝑛
𝑉𝑒𝑙
𝑉𝑖𝑛 =
𝑉𝑏1 𝑉𝑏2 𝑉𝑏3 𝑅
𝑆𝐴1
Eigen-value Analysis 𝑁
𝕂 − 𝜔2 𝕄 Φ = 𝕆 ∆𝑒𝑙 = ∆𝑖𝑛
𝑉𝑏𝑛 = 𝛤𝑛 . 𝑚𝑖 . 𝜙𝑖,𝑛 . 𝑆𝐴𝑛
Determine Modal Properties 𝑇3 𝑇2 𝑇1 𝑖=1
Time Period (sec) Displacement
𝑇𝑖 , 𝜙𝑖 , 𝛤𝑖 𝑉𝑒𝑙 = (𝑉𝑏1 )2 + (𝑉𝑏2 )2 + (𝑉𝑏3 )2 + …

(𝑉𝑏1 )2 + (𝑉𝑏2 )2 + (𝑉𝑏3 )2 + …

𝑉𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 =
𝑅

(𝑀𝑏1 )2 + (𝑀𝑏2 )2 + (𝑀𝑏3 )2 + …

𝑀𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 =
𝑅
𝐶𝑑 (∆𝑒𝑙1 )2 + (∆𝑒𝑙2 )2 + (∆𝑒𝑙3 )2 + …
∆=
𝑅
Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 45
 The Original Intent of R

• Basic Idea: 45
The elastic forces obtained from the
• A structure can be economically designed for a 40 standard RSA procedure

Story Level
“fraction” of the estimated elastic seismic design forces, 35
The RSA elastic forces reduced by 𝑅
30
while maintaining the basic life safety performance
The inelastic forces obtained from the
25 NLRHA procedure
objective.
20 The underestimation causing a “false
sense of safety” due to directly reducing
15 the RSA elastic forces by 𝑅 factor
The “reward” of making
• The intent of R is to simplify the structural design 10
a nonlinear model
5
forces such that only linearly elastic static analysis is
0
needed for most building design. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Story Shear (x106 N)

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 46

 What “R” to use?
US West New
Structural Type and Material Japan Europe
Coast Zealand**
Concrete Frame 8 1.8 – 3.3 9 5.85
Concrete Structural Wall 5 1.8 – 3.3 7.5 4.4
Steel Frame 8 2.0 – 4.0 9 6.3
Steel Eccentrically Braced Frame 8 2.0 – 4.0 9 6.0
Masonry Walls 3.5 - 6 3.0
Timber Structural Walls - 2.0 – 4.0 6 5.0
Pre-stressed Wall 1.5 - - -
Dual Wall/Frame 8 1.8 – 3.3 6 5.85
Bridges 3–4 3.0 6 3.5
**Sp factor of 0.67 incorporated

Source: “Direct Displacement-based Design” by Priestley MJN et al., 2007

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 47

 Modal Decomposition of Nonlinear Seismic Responses
Mode 1
Mode 2
Mode 3

Classical Modal ≅
Analysis + + +…
A Detailed 3D Elastic
Structural Model

Mode 1
Mode 2
Mode 3

≅
The Uncoupled Modal F

NL F F

Response History Analysis

D
+ D NL + D
NL +…
(UMRHA) A Detailed 3D Inelastic
Structural Model

Seismic Performance and Health Assessment of Structures – NUST 48

 What is state-of-the-art?

A 44-story Case Study Building

No Crack

Cracked

Base Shear vs. Roof Drift Ratio

Pushover Curve (Strong Direction)
3D View Elevation View
 25% of Cracking Strain
50% of Cracking Strain
80% of Cracking Strain
Already Cracked

Ground Motion Set 1 Ground Motion Set 2 Ground Motion Set 3

Media and
Earthquakes

51
Media and Disasters
Media and Disasters
Media and Disasters
Media and Disasters

?$&#@....

?$&#@....
 Role of Role of Private
Practicing
Engineers Sector and
Civil Society

Earthquake
Research
and
Resilience in Development
Pakistan A well-
researched
Building Code
Disaster
Preparedness,
Response,
and Mitigation

63
Thank you for your attention

Contact:
fawad@nice.nust.edu.pk