Towards “Democratic Stability”: Facts, Factors, and Future Prospects

In Pakistan democracy and democratic institutions will be stable and successful after three to five
consecutive, fair elections

TAUSEEF AHMAD PARRAY*

Friday, 20 June 2014
http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2014/Jun/20/towards-democratic-stability-facts-factors-and-
future-prospects-24.asp
Having struggled with constitutions, governments, and the structure of the state,
Pakistan throughout its history—from its inception in 1947 to 2014 (a period of 67
years)—has swung between the poles of dictatorship and democracy, and between
civilian and military rule. Thus the political structure of Pakistan has oscillated and
fluctuated like a pendulum, between two “D’s”: Democracy and Dictatorship.

Although its founders intended it to be a “democratic state”, but the political evolution
of Pakistan, as is well known, has taken a complex and multifaceted path. In the course
of its history, up to the present times, Pakistan has experienced many vicissitudes,
including three wars with India, repeated coup d’état, and political instability. The
several efforts to establish democratic systems in Pakistan since its inception were “short-
lived”, except that of “Zardari-Gilani era” (2008-2013) and never really operational and
functional enough to test their suitability, stability, and solidity. These democratic
experiments were replaced by authoritarian regimes, usually dominated by the military
that were invariably identified as a “transitional stage” to a reformed and revised
democratic system. Zardari completed his term successfully—which was for the first
time in Pakistani history that a democratically elected government completed its full
term of five years. Despite many hurdles and an unstable path, it was indeed a landmark
achievement for a civilian government. Never in the history of Pakistan, till 2008, had
any democratically elected completed its full term of five years.

The political trajectory of Pakistan gives an impression of an eternal return in a rhythmic

succession of cycles of about ten years—e.g., Gen Ayub Khan in 1960s, Zulfikar Ali
Bhutto in 1970s, Gen Zia ul Haq in 1980s, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in 1990s,
Gen Parvez Musharraf in 2000s—in the course of which democratic phases and military
governments alternate. Many scholars—including various political scientists and
academicians, analysts, Pakistan studies experts—have, over these decades, put forth
their views on this. For example: Safdar Mahmood, a historian and leading political
analyst, in his Pakistan: Political Roots & Development: 1947-1999 (Oxford, 2000, p. 365) is
of the opinion that looking at its political balance sheet from 1947 to 197, it becomes
clear that “democracy in the real sense of the word was never introduced or practiced in
Pakistan” because for most of this period, “the country was under ‘bureaucratic-cum-
parliamentary’ rule or under a military rule” and thus the “Democratic institutions were
never allowed to grow freely”. Such views are shared by many writers on political
history of Pakistan, both Pakistanis and westerners equally.

What becomes clear from the historical facts and political trajectory of Pakistan is that
Pakistan – and its governing structure, which has been oscillating and fluctuating
between two “D’s”: Democracy and Dictatorship—has faced, over the decades, a host of
difficulties which did not let the democratic principles, institutions and processes develop
firm roots in the polity. And the legacy of institutional imbalance and authoritarianism,
problems encountered in the setting up of the new state, the external security pressures,
the fear of the collapse of the state, and many other such factors and issues, adversely
affected the prospects of democracy. Other factors that caused the problems for
democracy included the crisis of leadership in the aftermath of the demise of Jinnah,
failure of the Muslim League to transform itself from a nationalist movement to a
national party, fragmentation and degeneration of the political forces and the rise of the
bureaucratic-military elite. In the words of Dr Safdar Mahmood “Pakistan’s political
history is marked with unnecessary delay in constitution-making, breakdowns of
constitutional order, political instability, military rule, and extra-parliamentary pressure,
and agitation for political change”.

On the basis of this political trajectory of Pakistan, many have called it a country that is,
among others, on the “Eye of a Storm” (Owen Bennet Jones); politically “a failure” state
(Louis D. Hayes); a “Country in Crisis” with a “Fruitless Search for Democracy”
(Christopher Jaffrelot) or with a “poor track record of democracy” (Safdar Mahmood). It
has been labelled as a country that has always depended on the clichés of three “A’s”:
“Allah, Army and America” and is now “Waiting for Allah” (Christina Lamb) because
it is at a “critical juncture” (Stephen Cohen).

Pakistan on the Path of “Democratic Stability” and its Future Prospects

In 2008 Asif Ali Zardari was elected as the new President of Pakistan and completed his
term successfully—and it was for the first time in the history of Pakistan that a
democratically elected government completed its full term of five years. Despite many
hurdles and an unstable path, it was indeed a “landmark achievement” for a civilian
government. And as Prof. Ian Talbot (in his Pakistan: A New History, London, 2012) has
put forth very insightfully: post-2008 period in Pakistan, i.e., the Zardari’s era (2008-12),
who came to power through 2008 elections—the “fairest [elections] since those of 1971”
(p.201)—was much in common with that of 1990s (which is as such called the ‘decade of
democracy’ in Pakistan), as far as issues and problems faced by Pakistan (such as the
spectre of economic crisis and a continuing decline in governance) are concerned, but
the challenges of “democratic consolidation” were different and more “acute” than in
the 1990s (p.203).

On June 5, 2013 Nawaz Sharif assumed the powers of PM, and thus, at present—being
the fifth democratic era in its history—Pakistan has headed back toward a major
“transition” from the existing semi-presidential system to parliamentary democracy rule.
Will Nawaz Sharif be able to complete his tenure successfully? Will he be able to bring
“democratic stability” in Pakistan? Will his government be able to cope up all the
challenges? These questions are in the minds of many scholars and have been debated
and discussed very much. Many political scientists/analysts, diplomats and journalists,
Pakistan studies experts, both Pakistani and Western, have put forward many
assumptions and suggestions, predictions and prophecies, for future prospects of
Pakistan’s democratic stability. Some of them are provided here:

A recent report—which was based on a countrywide opinion polls commissioned by

PILDAT and conducted by Gallup Pakistan—on the ‘Views on State of Democracy in
South Asia: 2013 (Pakistan Report)’, revealed that (i) over half of the people Pakistan are
satisfied with the functioning of democracy in Pakistan; (ii) freedom of expression,
legislation, the understanding level of people and many other positive things had
improved since the holding of the two consecutive elections; (iii) people’s trust in
democracy would further increase if the process was not derailed. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, a
prominent Social Scientist and the founder/chairman of Gallup Pakistan, on the basis of
this report said democracy had more bright future in Pakistan, keeping in view the
majority of single religion population, while Prof Hassan Askari Rizvi, Pakistani
political scientist, military/defence analyst, who was a part of this report launching
ceremony, emphasised that democracy was a lengthy process and would show its fruits
after holding of four to five consecutive elections. For him, military interventions had
not given a chance to political parties for strengthening democracy (see also, “Over half
of Pakistanis satisfied with democracy, report”, Inamullah Khattak, Dawn, Feb 14,
2014).

Prof Tahir Amin, Professor and Chairman of the National Institute of Pakistan Studies,
Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, in my personal meeting with him (dated 22 April,
2014) revealed that he believes that “democracy is not only a lengthy, but slow and
gradual process”, and he shared that he is much hopeful that “after holding three to four
consecutive elections, Pakistan will make a successful transition to ‘stable’ democracy”.
He believes that “viability of democracy” in Pakistan depends on both internal and
external factors, and the role/intervention of army, which has in post-Musharraf era
“stepped back” to a great extent, is also crucial in having an “effective democracy” in
Pakistan. Coincidently, both Prof(s) Rizvi and Amin are almost of same opinion as far as
Pakistan’s successful transition to ‘stable’ democracy is concerned.

Recently, Gen Mirza Aslam Beg, an ex-COAS of Pakistan Army, in his “Future of
democracy in Pakistan” (Pakistan Observer, Monday, March 17, 2014; & Daily Times,
March 20, 2014) pointed out his “hope for democracy”. For him, although democracy
has had a rough ride in Pakistan but the essentials, which fortify democracy (among
others, Pakistan’s democratic ethos, the agents of change, and end of dynastic politics),
are clearly discernable on the national horizon. Gen Beg further opines that Pakistanis
desire change in traditional politics, with a demand of an “equitable and just social
order”, expected to be delivered by the new political leadership. In this, he finds “the
hope for democracy” with more stability and success in Pakistan in the coming years.
On the similar lines, Dr Niaz Murtaza (a political economist at the University of
California, Berkeley) in his “Genuine democracy” (Dawn, May 20, 2014) argued that
Pakistan needs a “series of social movements to help improve its democracy.”

On the basis of these realities and veracities, to make a long story short, it is safe to argue
that democracy, a slow and gradual process, needs tolerance and patience. In Pakistan
democracy and democratic institutions, in their real spirit, will reach the level of stability
and smooth success after holding three to five consecutive fair elections and of course
with smooth functioning of governments-in-power. And as the second consecutive
democratic regime in post-Musharraf era is already in progress (with Nawaz Sharif as
PM and Mamnoon Hussian as President), Pakistan will be on the path of a successful
and “stable” democracy in next 10 to 15 years. It is hoped that if it goes on with same
smoothness and normality, then by the year(s) 2025-30 Pakistan will be, optimistically,
a successful Democratic Muslim Republican Country, with a potential to be a ‘role
model’ for all Muslim-countries of the world, whether in the Middle East, Africa, or in
Asia.

(Tauseef Ahmad Parray is presently an “Iqbal (Post Doc) Fellow” at the Iqbal International Institute for
Research and Dialogue (IRD), International Islamic University Islamabad (IIUI), Pakistan, working on
“Problems and Prospects for Democracy in Pakistan”. Feedback at tauseef.parray21@gmail.com)