Weekly Notes Philstocks Research

Date: January 20 –24, 2020 JUSTINO B. CALAYCAY, JR

Ref: Japhet O. Tantiangco, 8588-1927 AVP-Head, Research & Engagement
+63 (2) 8588-1962
TECHNICAL VIEW JAPHET LOUIS O. TANTIANGCO
Sr. Research Analyst
Take positions as we expect the local +63 (2) 8588-1927
bourse to respect the 7,700 support level
this week while waiting for Thursday’s PIPER CHAUCER E. TAN
Engagement Officer/Research Associate
GDP figures. Trading range is set
+63 (2) 8588-1928
between the 7,700 level and the 200-day
exponential moving average with a CLAIRE T. ALVIAR
possible testing of the 200-day EMA on Research Associate
the latter days of the trading week. The +63 (2) 8588-1925
pick up in OBV shows building accumulation. Ground Floor, East Tower
PSE Center, Tektite Towers
Ortigas Center, Pasig City
PHILIPPINES
OUR VIEW
DISCLAIMER
Buy shares as we see a faster 4Q 2019 GDP figure to send the local market higher w/w. The opinion, views and
Philstocks Forecasts 4Q 2019 GDP growth at 6.4% y/y backed by the season driven recommendations contained in this
consumption, government spending, and a narrower trade deficit. The local bourse will material were prepared by the
also take cues from abroad particularly from Wall Street’s corporate earnings season. Philstocks Research Team, individually
BUY: JFC raised $600 million Reg S guaranteed senior perpetual securities with an and separately, based on their specific
initial distribution rate of 3.9%, non-callable for 5 years and payable semi-annually. Pro- sector assignments, contextual
ceeds to be used primarily for the short term debts from the acquisition of Coffee Bean framework, personal judgments, biases
and Tea Leaf. and prejudices, time horizons, methods
and other factors. The reader is
Philippine Savings Bank declared cash dividends at P0.75 per share, ex-dividend date enjoined to take this into account when
at January 28, 2020 (Tuesday). perusing and considering the contents
of the report as a basis for their stock
investment or trading decisions.
MARKET WRAP Furthermore, projection made and
presented in this report may change or
be updated in between the periods of
Worries on economic damages brought by Taal’s volcanic activities, and remaining tariffs
between the US and China pulled the local market lower by 0.70% w/w. Foreign fund release. Ergo, the validity of the
exodus continued with net selling posting P1.40 billion for the week. Decliners edged projections and/or estimates
advancers 122 to 95 while 25 were unchanged. mentioned are good as of the date
indicated and may be changed without
Industrials, climbing 1.21%, bounced back from being the main laggards to top gainers. immediate notification.
Conglomerates were at the tail end shedding 2.09%. This report is primarily intended for
information purposes only and should
For index members, positive consumption outlook for 2020 gave Universal Robina
not be considered as an exclusive basis
Corporation [PSE:URC] the widest w/w margin of 9.41% at P153.50. Meanwhile, tirades
for making investment decision. The
from the government plunged DMCI Holdings, Inc. [PSE:DMC] to the bottom of the index
recommendations contained in this
list by 10.04% at P6.36.
report is not tailored-fit any particular
Overall, BDO Leasing and Finance, Inc. [PSE:BLFI] was the weekly top gainer, adding investor type, situation, or objective
32.70% at P2.80. and must not be taken as such.
Determining the suitability of an
investment remains within the province
of the investor. Our estimates are
based on information we believe to be
reliable. Nevertheless, nothing in this
report shall be construed as an offer of
a guarantee of a return of any kind and
at any time.

Philstocks Research 2019 1 |Page

 WEEKLY MARKET STATS
LOCAL NEWS
INDEX VALUE PTS PCT YTD

Damage from Taal’s volcanic activities reached P3.06 billion. So far, the damage remains PSEI 7,722.58 (54.19) -0.70% -1.19%

limited compared to the CALABARZON region’s agricultural production which has been ALL 4,551.19 (53.98) -1.17% -2.12%

averaging P74.6 billion from 2016 to 2018. This in turn is just 5.1% of the region’s average FIN 1,846.91 (19.39) 1.06% -0.90%

real GDP in the same period. Thus, for now, we see, Taal’s volcanic activities to have IND 9,477.42 (112.94) 1.21% -1.64%
minimal impact on the overall economy. HDG 7,475.59 (159.86) -2.09% -1.53%

PRO 4,035.78 (76.56) -1.86% -2.86%

SVC 1,564.02 8.36 0.54% 2.15%

M&O 8,143.53 35.89 0.44% 0.64%

GLOBAL NEWS ASIAN MARKETS

INDEX VALUE PTS PCT YTD
China’s 2019 GDP grew by 6.1%. Though in line with expectations, the figure was slower Nikkei 225 24,041.26 190.69 0.80% 1.63%
than 2018’s 6.6% and was the slowest since 1990. A further slowdown which is possible
Hang Seng 29,056.42 418.22 1.46% 3.07%
amid the tariffs and the phase one deal obligations that weighs on China, could spill over to
Shanghai 3,075.50 (16.79) -0.54% 0.83%
the Philippines since the country is one of our top trading partners. From January to
KOSPI 2,250.57 44.18 2.00% 2.41%
November 2019, 13.6% or $8.8 billion of our exports went to China. In terms of investment,
HCM 978.96 10.42 1.08% 1.87%
in the 1st 10 months of 2019, 2nd biggest net inflow of FDI’s came from China at $103.4
million. SET 1,602.66 22.03 1.39% 1.44%

STI 3,281.03 25.08 0.77% 1.81%

KLCI 1,595.81 4.35 0.27% 0.44%

COMPANY NEWS
JCI 6,291.66 16.72 0.27% -0.13%

Chelsea Logistics and Infrastructure Holdings Corp. [PSE:C] INTERNALS

TOTAL VAL 29,624,064,892.88 ADV 95
Chelsea Group’s new RoRo passenger ferry vessel, M/V Starlight Venus is expected to AVE VAL 7,406,016,223.22 DEC 122
arrive in the Philippines on April 2020. The vessel will have a capacity of 740 passengers, 22
BLOCK 4,815,584,097.14 UNCH 25
buses, and 6 trucks. With the new ship, Chelsea Group now has a total of 74 vessels.
COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES
Trade C as it recovers from its downtrend which troughed in the middle of December 2019. A Brent Crude 65.10 0.05%
good entry point will be its support at P5.20. Its 50 - day exponential moving average WTI Crude 58.78 -0.58%
meanwhile serves as a dynamic resistance. If it breaks above its 50 - day EMA, it could take
Gold 1,557.35 -0.37%
its next resistance at P6.00. MACD line is still above the signal line but has been losing
Silver 18.03 -0.54%
momentum lately. OBV is still showing a distribution bias. Set a cut loss point 5% below your
Copper 2.85 1.28%
entry price.
US$:Php 50.95 0.75%
Target price: P6.00 TOP 5 GAINERS TOP 5 LOSERS
URC 9.41% DMC –10.04%

GLO 5.96% JGS –6.55%

AEV 3.85% MPI –6.42%

JFC 3.39% FGEN –5.82%

BDO 2.94% MER –5.52%

Rating Definitions:
BUY - More than 15% upside base on the target price
in the next 9-12 months

HOLD - 15% or less upside or downside in the next

9-12 months

SELL - More than 15% downside base on the target

price in the next 9-12 months
TRADE - A potential 10% and above short-term upside
base on entry price and selling price.
Source: Tradingview

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TABLES

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