Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

ASEAN Ministerial Retreat Post
Mortem
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 19, 2020

The ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat has just ended. We would like to ask you the
following questions:
Q1. Compared to the requirements set out was the conference successful or not? If
not successful, what are the issues?
ANSWER: The ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat was the first such meeting to be
convened by Vietnam as ASEAN Chair for 2020. The main purpose of this meeting was
to prepare for the annual ASEAN Ministerial Meeting and 36th ASEAN Summit to be
held from 6-9 April.
The Retreat can be judged a success because all the important issues were touched
on and the foreign minister essentially agreed on continuity in policy. Notably the
ministers “expressed support for Viet Nam’s main priorities and proposed deliverables
under the theme ‘Cohesive and Responsive ASEAN’ in 2020.”
The Press Statement issued after the Retreat mirrored past statements in its summary
of discussions. This was evident in paragraphs 14 and 15 on the South China Sea that
closely reiterated the wording of the Press Statement issued after the 2019 ASEAN
Foreign Ministers’ Retreat.
However, the Press Statement reflected a slightly firmer declaratory policy on the
South China Sea. For example, the Press Statement added two new sentences that
were not in the Joint Communique of the 52nd AASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in
Bangkok on 31 July 2019: “We reaffirmed that international law, including the 1982
UNCLOS is the basis for determining sovereignty, sovereign rights and legitimate
interests over maritime areas. We further reaffirmed that the 1982 UNCLOS is the
overarching framework of legal order for the seas that must be respected by all
countries [emphasis added].”
Q2. Have the issues raised by ASEAN member countries been met? Is there any issue
that Vietnam needs to pay attention to?
ANSWER: ASEAN Foreign Minister discussed, among other issues, four major issues,
at their Retreat that need to be resolved. As ASEAN Chair Vietnam now has
responsibility to advance progress on these issues: (1) achieving progress and greater
ASEAN involvement in “providing humanitarian assistance, facilitating the repatriation
process, and promoting sustainable development in Rakhine State” in Myanmar, (2)
 2

securing the support for external partners for the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific,
(3) securing a final decision by ASEAN leaders on whether or not to attend a Special
Summit in the United States at the invitation of President Donald Trump, and (4)
further consideration of Timor-Leste’s membership in ASEAN after two ASEAN fact
finding missions report back on their findings.
Q3. What lessons need to be learned after this conference?
ANSWER: Vietnam, as ASEAN Chair, is faced with a mountain of tasks that need to be
addressed in 2020 that include (1) legacy issues that Vietnam inherited from Thailand
when it became ASEAN Chair, (2) Vietnam’s main priorities under its theme of
Cohesive and Responsive ASEAN and (3) “unfolding opportunities and challenges from
the fast-changing regional and global landscapes as well as the swift development of
technology” (from ASEAN Foreign Minister’s Retreat Press Statement).
In order to be successful Vietnam needs to balance its priorities, demonstrate
proactive leadership, and continuously monitor progress across the three-pillars of
ASEAN Community building, integrating ASEAN’s external relations, and reinforcing
ASEAN-centered regional architecture.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “ASEAN Ministerial Retreat Post Mortem,”

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 19, 2020. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.