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Table 1: Population Projection
Parliament Questions

Power Sector
Year Av.Gr. Rate *(%/yr) Population**(Billion)
Research and Development Sector
1991 1.99 0.843
Industries and Mineral Sector
2001 1.50 1.027
Public Sector Units
2011 1.02 1.19
Service Organizations
2021 0.70 1.32
Aided Institutions and Other
Organizations of DAE 2031 0.40 1.41

DAE Schemes 2041 0.20 1.47

Other Links 2051 0.00 1.50

Patent
* Average growth rate figures are applicable for the next decade. The figure for 1991 is calculated, the rest are projected.
Photo Gallery ** The population figures for 1991 & 2001 are from Census of India 2001, the rest are projected.
Nuclear Energy
Table 2: Contribution of Different Fuel Resources to Primary & Electrical Energy
Important Agreements

DAE Corner
Primary Energy, Year 2002-03 (Estimated)
Contributory Health Service Scheme
Coal+Lig Crude NG Hydro Nuc Non-conv
(CHSS)
Contribution in EJ 6.40 4.83 1.18 0.79 0.23 0.03 13.46
DAE Vigilance
% of total 47.53 35.92 8.79 5.85 1.72 0.19 100.00
Forms for Licensing
Import (EJ) 0.51 3.42 ~0.0 ~0.0 0.03 0.00 3.96

% of above 7.97 70.81 ~0.0 ~0.0 13.0 0.00 29.42

Source: Annual Reports of the year 2002-03 of Ministries of Power, Coal, Petroleum & Natural Gas, Non-Conventional Energy
Sources, Department of Atomic Energy and communication from Central Electricity Authority.

Electricity, Year 2002-03

Thermal Hydro Nuclear Non-conv Total
Contribution in TWh 550.82 65.66 19.24 2.66 638.38

% of total 86.3 10.3 3.0 0.4 100.0

1. Power from Utilities: Thermal, Hydro and Nuclear: 531.61 TWh (Source assessed on 23.4.03),
2. Wind: 2.13 TWh (Source Annual Report 2002-03 Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources)
3. Captive Power: Capacity factor of 41% for the year 2000-01 is calculated from the data given in “Energy” published by the
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, April 2002. Generation of 104 billion kWh in 2002-03 has been calculated
assuming a capacity factor of 41% on an estimated base of 29 GWe.

Table 3 : A Survey of Energy Growth Rate Projections for India [1]

Investigator Period of Primary Commercial Energy Growth Electrical Energy Growth Rate
Projection Rate (%/y) (%/y)
1 SCE-India [2] 2002-2012 4.3

2 TERI-India [3] 1997-2019 4.5 5.7

2020-2047 3.7 3.9

3 IEO-USA [4] 1997-2020 4.5 4.5

4 EAGJ-Japan 1990-2025 3.9 ….

[5]
2026- 2050 2.4 ….

2051-2100 1.8 ….

5 IEEJ-Japan [6] 1999-2020 5.2 5.4

6 RS&RAE-UK until 2026 …. 4.0

[7]
until 2050 …. 3.0
 2051-2100 …. 2.0

7 CEA-India [8] 1997-2012 …. 6.5

8 Present Study 2002- 2022 4.6 6.3

2022-2032 4.5 4.9

2032-2042 4.5 4.5

2042- 2052 3.9 3.9

Table 4: India's Energy Resource Base

Amount Thermal Energy Electricity Potential

EJ TWh GW-yr GWe-yr
Fossil
Coal [9] 38-BT 667 185,279 21,151 7,614

Hydrocarbon [10] 12-BT 511 141,946 16,204 5,833

Non-Fossil
Nuclear [11]
Uranium-Metal 61,000-T

In PHWR 28.9 7,992 913 328

In Fast Breeders 3,699 1,027,616 117,308 42,231

Thorium-Metal 2,25,000-T

In Breeders 13,622 3,783,886 431,950 155,502

Renewable
Hydro [12] 150-GWe 6.0 1,679 192 69

Non-conv. Ren. [13] 100-GWe 2.9 803 92 33

Assumptions for Potential Calculations

Fossil:
1. Complete source is used for calculating electricity potential with thermal efficiency of 0.36
2. Capacity factor of 0.33 has been assumed for potential calculation.

Non-Fossil:

Thermal energy is the equivalent fossil energy required to produce electricity at 0.36 efficiency.

Nuclear
1. PHWR burn-up = 6,700 MWd/T of uranium oxide, efficiency = 0.29.
2. Fast breeders can use 60% of the uranium. This is an indicative number. Actual value will be determined as one proceeds
with the programme and gets some experience. Fast reactor thermal to electrical energy conversion efficiency is taken to
be 42%.
3. Breeders can use 60% thorium with efficiency of 42%. At this stage, the type of reactors wherein thorium will be used are
yet to be decided. The numbers are only indicative.

Hydro
1. Name plate capacity is 150 GWe.
2. Estimated hydro- potential of 600 billion kWh and name plate capacity of 150 GWe gives a capacity factor of 0.46.

Non-conventional Renewable
1. Includes: Wind 45 GWe, Small Hydro 15 GWe, Biomass Power/ Co-gen. 19.5 GWe and Waste to Energy 1.7 GWe etc.
2. Capacity factor of 0.33 has been assumed for potential calculation.

Table 5: Cost of Imported Fuel

Fuel Rs/Tonne Billion US $/EJ

Naphtha at Indian port 13,470 5.86

L.N.G. at Indian port 12,500 5.80

Coal at Indian port 2,346 1.67

Nat.-U (U3O8) at International market 11,00,000 0.04

Costs of fossil fuels are from " Draft Report of the Expert Committee on Fuels for Power Generation, Central Electricity
Authority, Government of India, April 2002". Natural uranium cost is the one prevailing for most part of the year
2002-http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_g_2yr_price.html (accessed on 23-01-2003).

Table 6: External Costs

Fuel Costs (mEcu/kWh) Equivalent lives lost (per GWe-year)

Coal 18-150 213

Lignite 35-84 138

 Oil 26-109 213

Gas 5.0-31 27

Wind 0.5-2.6 5

Hydro 0.8-7 2

Biomass 1.2-29 51

Nuclear 2.5-7.3 1

Adapted by IAEA (H-H Rogner) from European Commission ExternE Project 1998

Table 7: Capacity Factors & Thermal to Electrical Energy Conversion Efficiency

Capacity Factor Efficiency

Year Thermal Hydro Non-conv Nuclear
2002 0.7 0.38 0.14 0.80 0.30

2022 0.7 0.46 0.33 0.80 0.36

2032 0.7 0.46 0.33 0.80 0.36

2042 0.7 0.46 0.33 0.85 0.36

2052 0.7 0.46 0.33 0.85 0.38

The efficiencies quoted here have been used for calculation of Primary Energy-equivalents of hydro, nuclear and
non-conventional renewable electricity produced.

Table 8: Primary and Electrical Energy – Projected Growth

Year Population Coal + Hydro- Hydro Nuclear Non-conv-Ren Prim. Electricity Elec/
Lignite carbon Energy Primary
Billion EJ EJ EJ EJ EJ EJ EJ TWh Per %
(ET) Cap
kWh

2002 1.04 6.40 6.02 0.79 0.23 0.03 13.46 7.65 638 614 57

2022 1.33 11 13 4.6 2.1 1.6 33 22 2154 1620 66

2032 1.42 19 19 6 4.4 2.0 51 35 3485 2454 68

2042 1.47 31 30 6 9.8 2.4 80 54 5438 3699 68

2052 1.50 47 41 6 19.4 2.7 117 75 7957 5305 64

For calculating primary energy in EJ equivalent to electrical energy generated by hydro, nuclear or non-conventional
renewable sources, efficiencies given in Table 7 have been used. ET stands for equivalent thermal.

Table 9: Installed Electrical Capacities – Fuel Mix

(Including estimated captive power generation)

Year Coal Hydro- Hydro Non-conv Nuclear Total Per Cap Elec
carbon Renewable Gen
TWh % TWh % TWh % TWh % TWh % TWh kWh

2002 425.74 66.69 125.08 19.61 65.66 10.29 2.66 0.42 19.24 3.01 638.38 614

2022 957 44 369 17 460 21 162 8 206 10 2154 1620

2032 1630 47 618 18 600 17 197 6 441 13 3485 2454

2042 2673 49 950 18 600 11 237 4 978 18 5438 3699

2052 3774 47 1250 16 600 8 289 4 2044 26 7957 5305

Table 10: Electricity Generation – Fuel Mix

(Including estimated captive power generation)

Year Coal Hydro- Hydro Non-conv Nuclear Total Per Cap Elec
carbon Renewable Gen
TWh % TWh % TWh % TWh % TWh % TWh kWh

2002 425.74 66.69 125.08 19.61 65.66 10.29 2.66 0.42 19.24 3.01 638.38 614

2022 957 44 369 17 460 21 162 8 206 10 2154 1620

2032 1630 47 618 18 600 17 197 6 441 13 3485 2454

2042 2673 49 950 18 600 11 237 4 978 18 5438 3699

2052 3774 47 1250 16 600 8 289 4 2044 26 7957 5305

Table 11: Cumulative Nuclear Power Installed Capacity

PHWR, AHWR and FBR based on Pu LWR and FBR based on Pu Sub Total Grand
from PHWR from LWR Total
Year Thermal (GWe) Fast (GWe) Thermal Fast (GWe) Oxide Metal (GWe)
(GWe) (GWe) (GWe)
 Oxide Oxide Metal Oxide Oxide Metal

2002 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 2.72 0.00 2.72

2022 9.96 2.50 6.00 8.00 0.00 3.00 20.46 9.00 29.46

2032 9.40 2.50 33.00 8.00 0.00 10.00 19.90 43.00 62.90

2042 7.86 2.50 87.00 8.00 0.00 26.00 18.36 113.00 131.36

2052 4.06 2.50 199.00 8.00 0.00 61.00 14.56 260.00 274.56

If only the already negotiated 2 GWe LWRs are imported then the installed capacity in 2052 will be 208 GWe instead of 275
GWe.

Table 12: FBR Breeding Characteristics & Cycle Fissile Inventory

Fuel Fissile Breeding Cycle fissile inventory for one year

Type out of pile period (T)
System Doubling System Growth Oxide 18.8 3.8 4.7
Time (yr) Rate (%/yr)
Carbide 11.0 6.5 3.9

Metal 8.9 8.1 3.7

Source: INFCE Studies- see Annex 2

1. Reactor Unit Installed Capacity= 1 GWe
2. Reactor Capacity Factor = 0.75
3. Fuel Discharge Burn-up: Maximum = 100 GWd/T, Average = 67.5 GWd/T
4. Out-of-pile time period includes transportation, intermediate storage, pretreatment, reprocessing, fabrication etc. of the
fuel

[1] Historical energy growth rates for 1981 to 2000 were 6%/yr & 7.8 %/yr for primary energy & electricity from utilities
respectively.
[2] Report of the Steering Committee on Energy (SCE) Sector, 10th Five Year Plan, Government of India, Planning
Commission (Sr. No. 1/2001, March-2002).
[3] Disha- Green India 2047, TERI, 2001. Disha gives demand growth rates for coal, oil and gas. Primary energy growth rates
are derived based on the calorific values of the fossil fuels and the thermal equivalents of the electricity generated (See Table
7, page 274 and Tables 8&9. page 287). Disha gives total generation in the years 1997, 2019 & 2047. Electricity growth rates
are calculated from the given data. Conversion efficiencies from electrical energy to thermal energy are given in the Table 7.
[4] International Energy Outlook (IEO), Energy Information Administration, Appendices A, B and C, March 2002,
(www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html). The growth rates correspond to the High Economy Growth Scenario (Appendix B).
[5] A Long Term Perspective on Environment and Development in the Asia-Pacific Region (http://www.ecoasia.org/workshop
/bluebook/contents.html) by Environmental Agency of Japan (EAGJ). The growth rates pertain to the region Asia-Pacific and not
exclusively to India. Considering India’s projected GDP growth rate, high estimate is quoted.
[6] Kazuya Fujime, Managing Director, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), ( http://eneken,ieej.or.jp/en/data/pdf/115.pdf.).
[7] Nuclear Energy- The Future Climate, The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of Engineering (RS & RAE), U.K., June
1999. The growth rates pertain to developing countries and not exclusively to India.
[8] Sixteenth Electricn Power Survey of India, Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Ministry of Power, Government of India,
September 2000 (page 132). The growth rate corresponds to lower of the two scenarios. Higher growth rate is 7.3%.
[9] Report of Working Group on Coal & Lignite for The 10th Five Year Plan (2002-2007) July 2001
[10] Annual Report 2002- 2003, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Government of India and remarks in the para 3.2 of the
present report.
[11] A.B. Awati, Internal note, July 24, 2003, Department of Atomic Energy, Government of India.
[12] Annual Report 2001- 2002, Ministry of Power, Government of India.
[13] Annual Report, 2001-02, Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Resources, Government of India.
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Last Updated On: 28/11/2019

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