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  • Decision Tree Final

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    Muhammad Apriandito
    63 vizualizări6 pagini
    The document presents two exercises analyzing decision making using decision trees. Exercise 1 analyzes three alternatives under maximax and maximin criteria. It determines that alternative A1 is best under maximax and A3 under maximin. Exercise 2 analyzes two alternatives under maximax, maximin, maximum likelihood, and Bayes decision rule criteria. It determines that alternative A2 is best under all criteria. It also presents a decision tree for the exercise. Exercise 3 presents a production decision problem and analyzes the outcomes and probabilities of doing a market research with a contingency table. It determines the decision maker should do the market research and produce if the outcome is favorable, otherwise not produce.

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    The document presents two exercises analyzing decision making using decision trees. Exercise 1 analyzes three alternatives under maximax and maximin criteria. It determines that alternative A1 is best under maximax and A3 under maximin. Exercise 2 analyzes two alternatives under maximax, maximin, maximum likelihood, and Bayes decision rule criteria. It determines that alternative A2 is best under all criteria. It also presents a decision tree for the exercise. Exercise 3 presents a production decision problem and analyzes the outcomes and probabilities of doing a market research with a contingency table. It determines the decision maker should do the market research and produce if the outcome is favorable, otherwise not produce.

    Drepturi de autor:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Descărcați ca PDF, TXT sau citiți online pe Scribd
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    63 vizualizări6 pagini

    Decision Tree Final

    Încărcat de

    Muhammad Apriandito
    The document presents two exercises analyzing decision making using decision trees. Exercise 1 analyzes three alternatives under maximax and maximin criteria. It determines that alternative A1 is best under maximax and A3 under maximin. Exercise 2 analyzes two alternatives under maximax, maximin, maximum likelihood, and Bayes decision rule criteria. It determines that alternative A2 is best under all criteria. It also presents a decision tree for the exercise. Exercise 3 presents a production decision problem and analyzes the outcomes and probabilities of doing a market research with a contingency table. It determines the decision maker should do the market research and produce if the outcome is favorable, otherwise not produce.

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    din 6

    Syndicate 9: Decision Tree Case

    - Muhammad Apriandito (29119004)


    - Ghina Athaya (29119159)
    - Yegi Esarianita (29119139)
    - Siti Nuur Fatinah M (29119073)
    - Surrendra Singh (Exchange student)

    Exercise 1

    Alternative State of Nature Maximax Maximin

    State 1 State 2 State 3

    A1 4 2 8 8 2

    A2 3 1 3 3 1

    A3 4 6 5 6 4

    A. Under Maximax : Select A1


    B. Under Maximin: Select A3

    Exercise 2

    Alternative State of Nature Maximax Maximin

    State 1 State 2 State 3

    A1 150 110 170 170 110

    A2 180 200 220 220 180

    Prior Probability 0,1 0,3 0,6


    A. The alternative that should be chosen under the maximax criterion = A2 (220)
    B. The alternative that should be chosen under the maximin criterion = A2 (180)
    C. The alternative that should be chosen under maximum likelihood criterion
    Probability maximum = State 3 (0,6)
    Alternatif maximum = A2 (220)
    So under maximum likelihood criterion = A2 (220)
    D. The alternative that should be chosen under Bayes decision rule
    𝐸𝑉(𝐴1) = (0,1 𝑥 150) + (0,3 𝑥 110) + (0,6 𝑥 170) = 150
    𝐸𝑉(𝐴2) = (0,1 𝑥 180) + (0,3 𝑥 200) + (0,6 𝑥 220) =210
    So, The alternative that should be chosen under bayes decision rule = A2
    E. Decision tree
    Exercise 3

    Production cost = USD 90,000


    Revenue = USD 500,000, if he didn’t decide to produce then the company would loss nothing.
    P(Accept) = 0.2 ; P(Reject) = 0.8
    Market Research cost = USD 10,000

    P (FSS | Accept) = 0.6 ; P(USS | Accept) = 0.4


    P(FSS | Reject) = 0.1 ; P(USS | Reject) = 0.9

    How if Budi decided to do marketing research?

    Answer:

    Based on the analysis, Budi should go for market research and if the outcome is favorable then
    Budi should do the production, otherwise he shouldn’t produce. If Budi decide not to do the
    market research, he should do the production. Here the detail:

    𝑃(𝐹𝑆𝑆 ∩ 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡)
    - P (FSS | Accept) = 𝑃 (𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡)
    P (FSS ∩ Accept) = P (FSS | Accept) x P (Accept) = 0.6 x 0.2 = 0.12
    𝑃(𝐹𝑆𝑆 ∩ 𝑅𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡)
    - P (FSS | Reject) = 𝑃 (𝑅𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡)
    P (FSS ∩ Reject) = P (FSS | Reject) x P (Reject) = 0.1 x 0.8 = 0.08
    - P (FSS) = P (FSS ∩ Accept) + P (FSS ∩ Reject) = 0.12 + 0.08 = 0.2
    𝑃(𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 ∩ 𝐹𝑆𝑆) 0.12
    - P (Accept | FSS) = = = 0.6
    𝑃 (𝐹𝑆𝑆) 0.2
    - P (Reject | FSS) = 1 - P (Accept | FSS) = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4

    𝑃(𝑈𝑆𝑆 ∩ 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡)
    - P (USS) | Accept) =
    𝑃 (𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡)
    P (USS ∩ Accept) = P (USS | Accept) x P (Accept) = 0.4 x 0.2 = 0.08
    𝑃(𝑈𝑆𝑆 ∩ 𝑅𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡)
    - P (USS | Reject) = 𝑃 (𝑅𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡)
    P (USS ∩ Reject) = P (USS | Reject) x P (Reject) = 0.9 x 0.8 = 0.72
    - P (USS) = P (USS ∩ Accept) + P (USS ∩ Reject) = 0.08 + 0.72 = 0.8
    𝑃(𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 ∩ 𝑈𝑆𝑆) 0.08
    - P (Accept | USS) = = = 0.1
    𝑃 (𝑈𝑆𝑆) 0.8
    - P (Reject | USS) = 1 - P (Accept | USS) = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9
    Contingency Table:

    FSS USS p

    Accept 0.12 0.08 0.2

    Reject 0.08 0.72 0.8

    0.2 0.8 1

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