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day load by using artificial neural network by clustering the individual loads, has two components: Base component and
training patterns with respect to the testing pattern. The paper Random component. These components vary in the load curve
is organized as follows: Section – II discusses the basics of due to the following factors:
ANN and past literature on ANN for STLF. Section – III • Economical or Environmental
explains the proposed architecture and its description. The • Time
solution methodology and the results are presented in Section • Weather and
– IV and Section – V respectively. Section – VI contain the • Random disturbances
conclusions & the future work. The economical/environmental factors include change in
Service area demographics (rural, residential), Industrial
II. BASICS OF ANN AND LITERATURE ON ANN FOR STLF growth, Emergence of new industry, Change of farming,
Among the Artificial Intelligence techniques available, Penetration or saturation of appliance usage, Economical
ANN is widely used for forecasting the electric load. ANN trends (Expansion or Recession), Change of the price of
can be defined as highly connected array of elementary electricity and Demand side load management. The time
processors called neurons and is capable to perform non- constraints of economical/environmental factors are slow,
linear modeling and adaptation. Neural networks attempt to measured in years. The time factors affecting the load are
learn by themselves the functional relationship between seasonal variation of load (Summer, Winter etc.), start of
system inputs and outputs. school year etc. This also include weekly cyclic variation like
In case of load forecasting, it uses previous load patterns as significant reduction in load on weekends like Saturday &
in the cases of Time series and Regression approaches and Sunday, slight reduction in load on Monday & Friday, similar
weather information as in the case of Regression approach; pattern of load on the other days of the week and different
thus ANN has advantages of both of Time series and pattern of load on holidays like Christmas, New Year,
Regression methods. The feed forward back propagation Vacation etc. The various weather factors that affect the load
algorithm, which updates the weights in such a way that the are air temperature, dew temperature, wet bulb temperature,
error is minimized, is used to train the neural networks. The relative humidity, thunderstorms, wind speed, rain, fog, snow,
detailed explanation of back propagation algorithm is cloud cover/sunshine. Not all weather factors are similar in
available in any standard neural network textbook. importance and among them temperature is the most
Park et al. [29] presented an ANN approach to electric load important as it has direct influence on many kind of electrical
forecasting in which the ANN is trained with the back consumption. The random disturbances include start or stop
propagation algorithm. Peng et al [30] proposed a procedure of large loads (steel mill, factory or furnace), widespread
for choosing the training cases, which are most similar to the strikes, sporting events (football games, cricket matches etc.),
forecasted inputs. Khotanzad et al [31] presented a load popular television shows and shut-down of industrial facility.
forecasting system known as ANNSTLF, which predicts the The proposed architecture is shown is Fig. 1. The objective
next 24 hours load. It includes two ANN forecasters. One of of the proposed architecture is to recognize the above factors
them predicts the base load and the other forecasts the change from the training data and predict the load accordingly. Thus
in load. The final forecast is computed by an adaptive a suitable architecture along with appropriate inputs is
combination of these two forecasts. The effect of humidity needed. There are no general rules to follow in the selection
and wind speed is considered through a linear transformation of input variables. It depends largely on experience,
of temperature. Till date, several researchers dealt with the professional judgment and preliminary experimentation. The
application of various neural networks to Short Term Load demand for electricity is known to vary by the time of the day,
Forecasting with varying success [32-41]. Although neural week, month, temperature and usage habits of the consumers.
networks are capable of handling nonlinearity between the Though usage habit is not directly observable, it may be
electric load and the weather factors that affect the load, they implied in the patterns of usage that have occurred in the past.
somehow lack to fully handle unusual changes that occur in For solving a STLF problem all of these inputs are not needed
the environment. The topology of a neural network at the same time. Depending on the forecast to be made,
determines the degrees of freedom available to model the whether daily or hourly; the choice of input variables will
data. If the neural network is too simple then the network will change.
not be able to learn the function relating the input to the
output and an over-complex network will learn the noise in
the data and will not be able to generalize.
Ld-1
III. PROPOSED ARCHITECTURE
Td-1
A model is proposed here to forecast the electric load one Neural Network Ld
day in advance. The aim is to prepare the model for real-time Td
forecasts by clustering the available past data. DOW
The system’s electric load, which is the sum of the
Fig. 1 Proposed architecture for STLF
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A. Data Analysis
The data considered for the proposed architecture include
electricity load and temperature. The load data set contains
the load per half hour of each day for two consecutive years Fig. 2 Training patterns for Sunday
while the temperature data set provides the average daily
temperature for the same two consecutive years. The 2 years
data contains 104 daily load curves for each day of a week.
The data is divided into 2 sets with 91 patterns for training
and 13 patterns for testing for each day of the week.
Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 represent the daily load curves of the
training set for Sunday and Wednesday, representing a
weekend day and a weekday, respectively. They clearly show
that the load is changing with season and furthermore the load
pattern of weekdays is different from that of the weekend.
--- Training
patterns
*-- Testing
pattern
Fig. 4 Clustering of training patterns for different testing patterns for Tuesday
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The patterns are also clustered by considering 80MW respectively. The predicted loads obtained by using clustering
threshold. The no. of patterns matched for each day for the 5th approach are more accurate than the loads obtained without
testing pattern is shown in TABLE III. From this table, we can clustering.
observe that the more the threshold, the more the number of
patterns matched.
TABLE IV
COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM & AVERAGE % ERRORS OF ANN (WITH
CLUSTERING FOR 30MW & 80MW) FOR 5TH TESTING PATTERN
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[22] A. D. Papalexopoulos and T. C. Hesterberg, “A regression based approach Amit Jain graduated from KNIT, India in Electrical
to short-term system load forecasting”, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol.5, Engineering. He completed his masters and Ph.D.
no.4, pp.1535–1547,1990. from Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi,
[23] R. Ramanathan, R. Engle, C. W. J. Granger, F. Vahid-Araghi and C. India.
Brace, “Short-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks”, Int. J. Forec., He was working in Alstom on the power SCADA
vol.13, pp.161–174,1997. systems. He was working in Korea in 2002 as a
[24] S. A. Soliman, S. Persaud, K. El-Nagar and M. E. El-Hawary, Post-doctoral researcher in the Brain Korea 21
“Application of least absolute value parameter estimation based on linear project team of Chungbuk National University. He
programming to short-term load forecasting”, Elect. Power & Energy was Post Doctoral Fellow of the Japan Society for
Syst., vol.19, no.3, pp.209–216, 1997. the Promotion of Science (JSPS) at Tohoku
[25] K. L. Ho, Y. Y. Hsu, C. F. Chen, T. E. Lee, C. C. Liang, T. S. Lai and K. University, Sendai, Japan. He also worked as a Post Doctoral Research
K. Chen, “Short term load forecasting of Taiwan power system using a Associate at Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan. Currently he is an Assistant
knowledge-based expert system”, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol.5, no.4, Professor in IIIT, Hyderabad, India. His fields of research interest are power
pp.1214–1221,1990. system real time monitoring and control, artificial intelligence applications,
[26] S. Rahman and O. Hazim, “A generalized knowledge-based short-term power system economics and electricity markets, renewable energy, reliability
load-forecasting technique”, IEEE T. Power Syst, vol.8, no.2, pp.508– analysis, GIS applications, parallel processing and nanotechnology.
514,1993.
[27] H. Mori and H. Kobayashi, “Optimal fuzzy inference for short-term load
B. Satish is a Ph. D. candidate in Power Systems
forecasting”, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol.11, no.1, pp.390–396,1996.
Research Center, International Institute of Information
[28] S. E. Papadakis, J. B. Theocharis, S. J. Kiartzis and A. G. Bakirtzis, “A
Technology, Hyderabad, India. He received his B. Tech
novel approach to short-term load forecasting using fuzzy neural
degree from Koneru Lakshmaiah College of Engineering,
networks”, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol.13, no.2, pp.480–492,1998.
Vijaywada, India and M. Tech degree form IIT Madras,
[29] Park D.C., El-Sharkawi M.A., Marks II R.J., Atlas L.E. and Damborg
India. He worked for three and half years as a faculty in
M.J. , “Electric load forecasting using an artificial neural network”, IEEE
Department of EEE, Vellore Institute of Technology,
Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, No.2, May 1991, pp. 442 – 449.
Vellore and published 12 papers at International and
national levels including IEEE and ELSEVIER. His areas of interest include
Applications of Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logic to power systems,
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