Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

ASEAN: China & South China
Sea and U.S. Special Summit
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 24, 2020

We are preparing a report that will analyze the situation in the region, focusing on
China-ASEAN, China-US and China-Vietnam relations in 2020.
We request your analytic input for our reference:
Q1. (a) What do you think of Vietnam-China relation in 2020? Is it getting worse before
getting better? (b) Some people say Vietnam and China will celebrate 70th of
diplomatic relations? (c) Vietnam also chairs ASEAN in this year, so China does not
want to damage the friendship atmosphere. Do you think it is true? (d) Will China
provoke other countries in the South China Sea? (e) Will China continue to send survey
ships to operate in Vietnam’s EEZ?
ANSWER: (a) China-Vietnam relations in 2020 will be “par for the course,” in other
words relations will recover from the maritime confrontation last year and develop in
a generally positive trajectory. Both sides will try to keep their maritime dispute from
dominating and souring bilateral relations. At the same time Vietnam and China will
continue to assert their own conceptions of sovereignty claims.
(b) Vietnam and China undoubtedly will make much of the seventieth anniversary of
diplomatic relations, 1950-2020. China, after all, was the first country to grant
diplomatic recognition to the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and provide material
assistance to Vietnam during its Resistance War against France. The 70th anniversary
provides a kind of circuit breaker to enable both sides to express, however
symbolically, the historical ties that they share.
(c) The fact that Vietnam is ASEAN Chair will moderate China’s behavior towards
Vietnam to a certain extent, especially now that Malaysia and Indonesia are showing.
Their displeasure over “recent developments” in the South China Sea. China, however,
also will be influenced by Vietnam’s preparations for the thirteenth national party
congress in early 2021. China will not want to stoke anti-China sentiment in Vietnam
that could affect impact on preparations for the 13th congress.
(d) China will continue to assert its so-called “indisputable sovereignty” in the South
China Sea but will do so with a long-term view. China will modulate its actions to
remind littoral states that they must take China’s interests into account. At the same
time, China will press ASEAN members to complete the second reading of the South
China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiating Text.
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(e) After India forced a Chinese survey ship to exit its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
around the Andaman Islands, Beijing instructed its agencies to seek permission before
carrying out survey work. But China entered a caveat, its survey ships would not seek
prior permission in “disputed waters.”
China is likely to send survey ships through Vietnam’s EEZ if Vietnam does not stop
foreign oil companies from operating in what China considers “disputed waters.”
For example, if Rosneft Vietnam resumes oil and gas exploration in the Red Orchard
block, China is likely to send its coast guard vessels to mount a challenge to this
activity.
Q2. ASEAN leaders will have a summit meeting with the US president Donald Trump
in March in the US; do you think Trump is really interested in boosting relation with
ASEAN?
ANSWER: ASEAN Foreign Ministers at their recent Retreat agreed to pass the decision
on whether to hold a Special Summit to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the
ASEAN-U.S. Strategic Partnership to their leaders for a final decision. No official
announcement has been made yet.
Donald Trump has an arrogant view of U.S. standing in the world and a transactional
approach to foreign policy and international security issues. He intensely dislikes
multilateral institutions such as APEC. He has shown disdain for the East Asia Summit.
In brief, Trump does not think in geo-political terms strategically. Trump only cares
about ASEAN as a platform for his promotion.
On the other hand, Trumps secretaries of State and Defense, Mike Pompeo and Mark
Esper, and other national security advisors, do care about and appreciate the
importance of ASEAN. They undoubtedly came up with the invitation for a Special
Summit as damage control for Trump’s no-show last year.
Q3. What will be China-US relations be in 2020 after the two sides signed the first
phase trade deal?
ANSWER: There is growing consensus among a wide body of analysts that the first
phase trade deal is more symbolic than real. It is viewed as a temporary truce while
both sides continue to wrestle with each other over Chinese subsidies to state-owned
enterprises, protection of intellectual property, and providing a level playing field for
U.S. businesses in China.
The “proof is in the pudding” as the saying goes. Analysts query whether China even
has the capacity to meet the goals outlined in the first phrase trade deal. There could
well be a protracted struggle between Trump and Xi Jinping over the coming years
about the terms of trade. At the moment, Xi has been given a temporary respite to
address pressing issues such as slower economic growth, political stability in Hong
Kong and the re-election of as Tsai Ing-wen as Taiwan’s president.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “ASEAN: China & South China Sea and U.S.
Special Summit,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 24, 2020. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.