India Midcaps

RESULT UPDATE

VA TECH WABAG
Execution deferment; working capital management key
deferment
India Equity Research| Engineering and Capital Goods

Va Tech Wabag (VATW) undershot Q3FY19 PAT by ~60% owing to delays EDELWEISS RATINGS

in order finalisation that led to deferment of revenue. Key highlights: a) Absolute Rating BUY

23/13% YoY slide in revenue in Q3/YTD19 spurred a cut in revenue Investment Characteristics Growth
guidance to INR35–37bn from INR40-42bn. b) Healthy order pipeline
(Namami Gange – Patna, Howrah and Kanpur, and USD50–55bn orders
MARKET DATA (R: VATE.BO, B: VATW IN)
from Saudi) lend comfort on order intake guidance (INR17bn ask in Q4 to
CMP : INR 273
meet lower end of guidance). c) APGENCO receivables remain elevated at
Target Price : INR 320
INR5.5bn, which management expects to prune to INR4bn by March 2019
52-week range (INR) : 580 / 243
and to INR1.5bn by March 2020. We are trimming FY19/20E EPS by
Share in issue (mn) : 54.7
22/9% factoring in delays in finalisation of orders. However, we maintain
M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 15 / 210
‘BUY’ while rolling forward to June 2020E with an unchanged TP of
Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (‘000) : 218.9
INR320 (maintaining 8x P/E) given comforting valuations and RoE
expansion of 430bps YoY to 17.8% over FY18–21E.
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
Current Q2FY19 Q1FY19
Key projects in completion stage; execution to gather momentum Promoters * 24.7 24.7 24.7
With large international projects AMAS (Bahrain) and RAPID (Malaysia) nearing
MF's, FI's & BKs 9.1 12.8 20.1
completion (INR1.6bn revenue in Q3FY18) and new projects yet to gather steam,
FII's 20.6 20.8 21.4
overall revenue slid 23% YoY. Adjusted for forex loss of INR46mn, EBITDA margin
Others 45.7 41.6 33.8
declined 70bps YoY in the wake of additional provisioning for doubtful debts. * Promoters pledged shares : NIL
Management expects execution to pick up substantially with projects gathering (% of share in issue)
momentum (order book ex-framework contract at INR84bn).
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
Watch out for collection of receivables BSE Midcap
Stock
Stock over
Index Index
Management expects to receive INR1.5bn worth of receivables from AP and TS Genco
(INR5.5bn currently); half of this pertains to retention money. Management expects 1 month (5.7) 15.2 20.9
receivables to reduce to 100 days (from 130) as collections improve. We continue to 3 months (0.4) 19.0 19.4
monitor this since receivables are likely to pile up as execution picks up. 12 months (16.1) (51.1) (34.9)

Outlook and valuation: Reasonable valuation; maintain ‘BUY’

We believe VATW is on track to post an EPS CAGR of 27% over FY18–21E with
execution ramping up for orders in hand. That said, finalisation of contracts is key to
revenue visibility over the medium term. Control over working capital and recovery of
AP Genco are the other key variables. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a TP of INR320. The stock is
trading at 8x/6x FY20/21E EPS.
Amit Mahawar
Financials (INR mn) +91 22 4040 7451
amit.mahawar@edelweissfin.com
Year to March Q3FY19 Q3FY18 % Chg Q2FY19 % Chg FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net revenues 6,619 8,647 (23.5) 7,520 (12.0) 34,573 34,351 41,834 Ashutosh Mehta
+91 22 6141 2748
EBITDA 493 777 (36.5) 628 (21.5) 2,918 2,926 3,868 ashutosh.mehta@edelweissfin.com
Adjusted Profit 154 301 (48.7) 358 (57.0) 1,315 1,364 1,992
Darshika Khemka
Adjusted Diluted EPS 2.8 5.5 (48.7) 6.6 (57.0) 24.1 25.0 36.5 +91 22 4063 5544
Diluted P/E (x) 11.3 10.9 7.5 darshika.khemka@edelweissfin.com
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 6.3 4.9
ROAE (%) 13.5 12.1 15.5 February 11, 2019

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com,

Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited
Engineering and Capital Goods

Q3FY19 conference call: Key highlights

Guidance
• Revenue guidance – INR35–37bn (INR40-42bn earlier). Delay in finalisation of contract
resulted in deferment of revenue.
 Order inflow guidance maintained at INR53–57bn.

Ongoing project status

• Petronas, Malaysia – Nearing completion. Achieved 99% progress. Received ‘Ready for
start’ certificate for Phase I. For Phase II, pre-commissioning activity is underway and
the ‘Ready for start’ certificate should be received in the next quarter.
• Polghawela, Sri Lanka – 80% of pipe-laying has been shifted. Procurement is on track
and civil contracts have been awarded.
• AP Genco – Subsystems handover underway. Trial runs will start this quarter.
 Telangana – Cabinet expected to be sworn in soon. In the next board meeting, the
payment should be approved. Management expects to receive the funds in Q4FY19

Financial performance
• Revenue lower owing to projects, namely AMAS (Bahrain- Sewage Treatment Plant)
and RAPID (Effluent Treatment plant in Malaysia), both of which are in completion
stage. INR1.6bn contribution from these two projects in Q3FY18.
• Exchange loss of INR120mn recorded in other expenses. Adjusted for the same, margin
stood at 8.1%.
• APGENCO receivables – At the start of the year, the balance was INR6–5.5bn. This will
reduce to INR4bn by March 2019 and INR1.5bn by March 2020.
• APGENCO retention money – INR1.5–1.6bn.
• Total receivables – INR14.85bn (versus INR14.63bn QoQ).
• Non-current receivables – INR3bn (same as last quarter).

Other comments
• Orders in the pipeline - Kanpur (Namani Gange), Patna (Namami Gange), Howrah
(Namami Gange), Patna (drinking water system) and an international order from Saudi
Arabia (USD50–55mn).
• All projects from government have provided advances. These advances are non-interest
bearing.
• Mumbai water treatment (INR4bn), out of which INR2.5–3bn pertains to EPC and INR1–
1.5bn will be O&M for 15 years.
• Receivable days at 130 currently. Target to end FY19 around 100 days.

Project awarding status

 Patna (Namami Gange) – Technical evaluation underway. Price bids should open by this
month and awarding by March 2019. This is a HAM project. INR10bn: ~INR4bn is HAM
and the balance INR6bn is EPC.
 Howrah (Namami Gange) – Declared L1 bidding. Files have gone to the World Bank for
approval. INR5.5–6bn contract size. This is a HAM project. EPC is less than INR4bn.
 Kanpur – INR5.5bn contract – VA Tech Wabag is L1.

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 VA Tech Wabag

Financial snapshot (INR mn)

Year to March Q3FY19 Q3FY18 % change Q2FY19 % change YTD18 FY19E FY20E
Net revenues 6,619 8,647 (23.5) 7,520 (12.0) 21,017 34,351 41,834
Raw material 5,073 6,851 (26.0) 5,963 (14.9) 16,187 26,799 32,595
Staff costs 710 669 6.2 636 11.7 2,003 2,786 3,122
Other operating expenses 343 351 (2.3) 293 17.1 1,295 1,839 2,248
Total expenditure 6,126 7,870 (22.2) 6,892 (11.1) 19,484 31,424 37,965
EBITDA 493 777 (36.5) 628 (21.5) 1,533 2,926 3,868
Depreciation 41 43 (4.8) 42 (1.4) 126 186 197
EBIT 452 733 (38.4) 586 (22.9) 1,407 2,740 3,671
Interest 188 142 32.0 177 6.3 513 702 728
Other income 5 8 (36.9) 5 17.8 16 115 137
Add: Exceptional items
Profit before tax 269 599 (55.1) 414 (35.0) 910 2,154 3,080
Tax 149 248 (40.1) 141 5.3 391 713 1,022
Minority interest (33) 58 NA (73) NA (95) 115 123
Associate profit share - 7 (94.4) 12 (96.7) 29 38 58
Reported net profit 154 301 (48.7) 358 (57.0) 643 1,364 1,992
Adjusted Profit 154 301 (48.7) 358 (57.0) 643 1,364 1,992
Equity capital(FV INR 2) 109 109 109 109 109 109
Diluted shares (mn) 55 55 55 55 55 55
Adjusted Diluted EPS 2.8 5.5 (48.7) 6.6 (57.0) 11.8 25.0 36.5
As % of revenues
Direct costs 76.6 79.2 79.3 77.0 78.0 77.9
Employee cost 10.7 7.7 8.5 9.5 8.1 7.5
Other expenses 5.2 4.1 3.9 6.2 5.4 5.4
EBITDA 7.4 9.0 8.4 7.3 8.5 9.2
Depreciation 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Interest expenditure 2.8 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.7
Tax rate 55.3 41.4 34.1 43.0 33.1 33.2

Change in Estimates
FY19E FY20E
New Old % change New Old % change Comments
Net Revenue 34,350 38,824 (11.5) 41,834 43,920 (4.8) Building in deferment of revenues
given delays in order finalisation
EBITDA 2,926 3,526 (17.0) 3,868 4,184 (7.6)
EBITDA Margin 8.5 9.1 9.2 9.5
Adjusted Profit 1,364 1,749 (22.0) 1,992 2,181 (8.6)
After Tax
Net Profit Margin 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.3
Capex 450 450 0.0 350 350 0.0

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Engineering and Capital Goods

Company Description
VATW is a multinational player in the water treatment industry with a presence in India, the
Middle East, North Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, China and southeast Asia through
principal offices in India, Austria, the Czech Republic, China, Switzerland, Algeria, Romania,
Tunisia, the UAE, Libya and Macau. It offers complete life cycle solutions including
conceptualisation, design, engineering, procurement, supply, installation, construction and
operational & maintenance (O&M) services. The company provides a range of EPC and O&M
solutions for sewage treatment, processed & drinking water treatment, effluents treatment,
sludge treatment, desalination and reuse for institutional clients like municipal corporations
and companies in the infrastructure sector such as power, steel and oil & gas companies. Till
date, VATW has executed 2,250 projects and is currently executing 72 projects. It is a
technology-focused player with R&D centers in Chennai, India, Vienna in Austria and
Winterthur in Switzerland respectively. Wabag Austria and Wabag Wassertechnik own 157
patents, which include both process and product patents. VATW has approximately 1,469
employees including 757 qualified engineers. In India, it has around 754 employees
including 588 qualified engineers. The company benefits from association with the Wabag
brand. In 2007, it acquired Wabag Austria, thereby taking over the Wabag Group (founded
in 1924). It has a project reference list of more than 2,250 over the past three decades.

Investment Theme
Unmatched capability in water and waste-water projects: VATW has the strongest portfolio
of water treatment/waste water/desalination, etc. in India and unlike most EPC peers has
in-house technology, which we believe is the key to its pole position. Its strong technological
competence coupled with a large talent pool impart it the resources to successfully execute
complex water projects.

India, emerging markets hold humungous growth potential: India, with low per capita water
supply of 146lts/day versus developed nations’ 500lts/day, has huge potential. Besides, in
light of the increasingly stringent norms for waste-water treatment, the scope for VATW is
enormous, in our view, especially given that more than 30% of industrial waste-water is not
treated before release. The company has made significant inroads in China, Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Spain and Turkey—key emerging markets—clocking high growth in water and waste-
water treatment.

Asset-light business model drives RoCE and cash flow: VATW has an asset-light business
model, which imparts it the capability to take on larger volume of projects and generate
higher RoCE. The company has identified critical areas which are mostly retained in-house,
while non-critical, low-value add work is outsourced.

Key Risks
Execution risk: The company outsources construction and depends on the sub contractors
for timely completion of projects. Any delays by the latter could negatively impact margin.

Delays in revival of international operations: The company is reducing costs in its

international operations by cutting workforce in high-cost locations and is instead focusing
on domestic units. Any delays in revival of international business could affect margin
improvement.

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Financial Statements
Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Macro Income from operations 34,573 34,351 41,834 50,863
GDP(Y-o-Y %) 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.3 Direct costs 27,336 26,799 32,595 39,576
Inflation (Avg) 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.5 Employee costs 2,637 2,786 3,122 3,601
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.0 6.3 5.8 5.8 Other Expenses 1,682 1,839 2,248 2,726
USD/INR (Avg) 64.5 70.0 72.0 72.0 Total operating expenses 31,655 31,424 37,965 45,903
Company EBITDA 2,918 2,926 3,868 4,960
Revenue growth (%) Depreciation 178 186 197 216
A) EPC municipal bus. 13.1 6.2 48.9 34.2 EBIT 2,739 2,740 3,671 4,744
B) EPC industrial bus. 10.7 (6.9) (3.3) 4.6 Less: Interest Expense 577 702 728 738
C) O&M municipal bus. (21.0) (3.5) 6.9 14.0 Add: Other income 57 115 137 140
D) O&M industrial bus. (14.5) 28.4 16.7 7.3 Profit Before Tax 2,219 2,154 3,080 4,146
Order inflow growth (%) Less: Provision for Tax 774 713 1,022 1,382
A) EPC municipal bus 18.3 82.5 11.5 11.7 Less: Minority Interest 155 115 123 138
B) EPC industrial bus (45.8) 31.9 13.3 14.1 Associate profit share 26 38 58 86
C) O&M municipal bus 13.2 (3.0) 8.2 8.3 Reported Profit 1,315 1,364 1,992 2,712
D) O&M industrial bus (19.8) 20.6 7.1 7.2 Adjusted Profit 1,315 1,364 1,992 2,712
Dep (% of Avg GFA) 7.6 6.5 6.0 6.0 Shares o /s (mn) 55 55 55 55
Tax rate (%) 34.9 33.1 33.2 33.3 Adjusted Basic EPS 24.1 25.0 36.5 49.6
Diluted shares o/s (mn) 55 55 55 55
Adjusted Diluted EPS 24.1 25.0 36.5 49.6
Adjusted Cash EPS 26.5 28.4 40.1 53.6
Dividend per share (DPS) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 24.9 24.0 16.4 12.1

Common size metrics

Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Operating expenses 91.6 91.5 90.8 90.2
EBITDA margins 8.4 8.5 9.2 9.8
EBIT margins 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.3
Net Profit margins 4.3 4.3 5.1 5.6

Growth ratios (%)

Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenues 7.8 (0.6) 21.8 21.6
EBITDA (1.6) 0.3 32.2 28.2
Adjusted Profit 28.4 3.7 46.1 36.1

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Balance sheet (INR mn) Cash flow metrics

As on 31st March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Share capital 109 109 109 109 Operating cash flow (2,158) 1,218 976 1,259
Reserves & Surplus 11,177 12,213 13,878 16,262 Financing cash flow 1,061 (1,029) (556) (1,066)
Shareholders' funds 11,287 12,323 13,987 16,371 Investing cash flow (108) (450) (350) (350)
Minority Interest 338 453 576 714 Net cash Flow (1,205) (261) 70 (157)
Long term borrowings 499 499 999 999 Capex (36) (450) (350) (350)
Short term borrowings 4,274 4,274 4,274 4,274 Dividend paid (267) (328) (328) (328)
Total Borrowings 4,773 4,773 5,273 5,273
Long Term Liabilities 827 827 827 827 Profitability and efficiency ratios
Sources of funds 16,973 18,124 20,412 22,934 Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Gross Block 1,307 1,657 1,907 2,157 ROAE (%) 13.5 12.1 15.5 18.0
Net Block 992 1,234 1,370 1,491 ROACE (%) 18.9 16.8 20.4 23.1
Capital work in progress - 50 100 150 Inventory Days 5 13 13 9
Intangible Assets 732 704 671 635 Debtors Days 284 298 264 264
Total Fixed Assets 1,724 1,988 2,141 2,275 Payable Days 201 215 191 191
Non current investments 45 45 45 45 Cash Conversion Cycle 88 95 86 82
Cash and Equivalents 1,902 1,641 1,711 1,553 Current Ratio 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
Inventories 382 1,468 893 1,084 Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1
Sundry Debtors 28,732 27,292 33,238 40,411 Fixed asset turnover (x) 19.9 18.8 21.0 24.4
Other Current Assets 4,138 4,965 5,710 6,852 Debt/Equity (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Current Assets (ex cash) 33,252 33,726 39,841 48,348 Adjusted Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Sundry creditors 16,176 15,418 18,753 22,770 Interest Coverage Ratio 4.7 3.9 5.0 6.4
Provisions 3,774 3,857 4,572 6,517
Total Current Liab 19,950 19,276 23,325 29,287 Operating ratios
Net Curr Assets-ex cash 13,301 14,450 16,515 19,061 Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Deferred tax (251) (251) (251) (251) Total Asset Turnover 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.3
Uses of funds 16,973 18,124 20,412 22,934 Fixed Asset Turnover 19.9 18.8 21.0 24.4
BVPS (INR) 206.5 225.5 255.9 299.6 Equity Turnover 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.2

Free cash flow (INR mn) Valuation parameters

Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Reported Profit 1,315 1,364 1,992 2,712 Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 24.1 25.0 36.5 49.6
Add: Depreciation 178 186 197 216 Y-o-Y growth (%) 28.4 3.7 46.1 36.1
Interest (Net of Tax) 376 469 487 492 Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) 26.5 28.4 40.1 53.6
Others 592 348 365 384 Diluted P/E (x) 11.3 10.9 7.5 5.5
Less: Changes in WC 4,618 1,148 2,065 2,546 P/B (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9
Operating cash flow (2,158) 1,218 976 1,259 EV / Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Less: Capex 36 450 350 350 EV / EBITDA (x) 6.2 6.3 4.9 3.9
Free Cash Flow (2,194) 768 626 909 FCFPS (INR) (40.1) 14.1 11.5 16.6
Y-o-Y gr. in FCFPS (%) (4,279.2) 135.0 (18.5) 45.2
FCFPE (x) (6.8) 19.4 23.8 16.4
Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

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Additional Data
Directors Data
Mr. Bhagwan Dass Narang
Mr. Sumit Chandwani
Ms. Revathi Kasturi
Parthasarathy Gopalan
Independent Chairman Mr. Rajiv Mittal Managing Director &CEO
Independent Director Mr. Malay Mukherjee Independent Director
Independent Director S. Varadarajan Director and Chief Growth Officer
Chief Financial Officer Pankaj Sachdeva CEO India

Auditors - Walker, Chandiok & Co

*as per last available data

Holding – Top10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding

No Data Available
*as per last available data

Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
03 Jan 2019 NORGES BANK ON ACCOUNT OF THE GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBA BUY 331665 259.53
21 Dec 2018 Norges Bank On Account Of The Government Pension Fund Globa Buy 900000 270.10
21 Dec 2018 Goldman Sachs India Fund Ltd Sell 867665 270.10
*as per last available data

Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded

No Data Available
*as per last available data

7 Edelweiss Securities Limited

 Engineering and Capital Goods

Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: research@edelweissfin.com

ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
Aditya Narain DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED,
ou=HEAD RESEARCH, cn=ADITYA NARAIN,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c27990f20b
f0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792c20,
Head of Research
NARAIN
postalCode=400005,
2.5.4.20=6b7d777d3c8c77e0e2c454e91543f9f4d9
b8311cf0678cd975097fc645327865,
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com st=Maharashtra
Date: 2019.02.11 21:31:59 +05'30'

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Engineering and Capital Goods

ABB India, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bharat Forge, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Engineers India Ltd, Greaves Cotton, KEC International, Cummins
India, Kalpataru Power, Larsen & Toubro, Praj Industries, Ramkrishna Forgings, Siemens, Techno Electric & Engineering, Thermax, Triveni Turbine, VA Tech
` Wabag
Recent Research
Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos
11-Feb-19 Thermax Profitability challenges; capex 1,070 Reduce
recovery key to re-rating;
Result Update
11-Feb-19 Techno Recovery on cards; 226 Buy
Electric & Result Update
Engineering
08-Feb-19 Engineer Turnkey drags P&L; order 111 Reduce
india traction awaited;
Result Update

Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap

Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Rating Interpretation

Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Expected to

Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11

One year price chart

600

500

400
(INR)

300

200

100
Dec-18
Dec-18
Aug-18

Oct-18
Apr-18
May-18
May-18

Nov-18

Jan-19
Feb-18

Sep-18

Feb-19
Sep-18
Jun-18
Mar-18
Mar-18

Jul-18
Jul-18

VA Tech Wabag

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Engineering and Capital Goods
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 VA Tech Wabag

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