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INVESTOR OUTLOOK:
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
H1 2018
Private Equity ■ Venture Capital ■ Hedge Funds ■ Real Estate
Infrastructure ■ Private Debt ■ Natural Resources
CONTENTS
Foreword 2 5: REAL ESTATE
Introduction 40
1: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS Satisfaction with Real Estate 41
Participation in Alternative Assets 4 Investor Activity in 2018 42
Perception and Expectations 5 Key Issues in 2018 43
Fund Selection and Marketing 6 Expectations and Opportunities 45
Fund Terms and Alignment of Interests 7 Fund Terms and Alignment of Interests 46
How Investors Source and Select Real Estate Funds 47
2: PRIVATE EQUITY Sample Real Estate Investors to Watch 48
Introduction 10
Satisfaction with Private Equity 11 6: INFRASTRUCTURE
Investor Activity in 2018 12 Introduction 50
Key Issues in 2018 13 Satisfaction with Infrastructure 51
Expectations and Opportunities 15 Investor Activity in 2018 52
Fund Terms and Alignment of Interests 16 Key Issues in 2018 53
How Investors Source and Select Private Equity Funds 17 Strategies and Geographies Targeted 55
Sample Private Equity Investors to Watch 18 Fund Terms and Alignment of Interests 56
How Investors Source and Select Infrastructure Funds 57
Introduction 20
Satisfaction with Venture Capital 21 7: PRIVATE DEBT
How Investors Source and Select Hedge Funds 37 Key Issues in 2018 71
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1
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
FOREWORD
T he alternative assets industry has gone from strength to strength in recent years as institutional investors have allocated heavily to
alternatives, driven by their search for diversification and improved returns in a low-yield environment. As investors become more
sophisticated in their understanding of these investments, the industry continues to evolve and new challenges and opportunities
emerge.
In this report, we present the results of our survey of over 550 investors, carried out in December 2017, in which investors were asked
for their views on the state of the industry and outlook for the future. As investors go into 2018, sentiment with respect to alternatives
remains noticeably positive, with the majority of respondents reporting that their return expectations had been met or exceeded over
the past year. Even hedge funds, which have faced negative sentiment in recent years from investors concerned about performance and
high fees, saw a notable improvement in both returns and investor sentiment over the course of 2017.
Nevertheless, investors have a number of concerns about alternative assets, particularly in relation to asset valuations and fund
performance. With large amounts of dry powder now held by private capital fund managers and high multiples being paid for assets,
there is less margin for error and many investors reported concerns that performance could fall across private capital funds in future.
Similarly, while the performance of hedge funds as an asset class was much improved in 2017, performance and fees remain investors’
top priorities for the asset class.
Looking ahead, the prospect of future interest rate rises and the unwinding of central bank stimulus policies pose new challenges for the
alternatives industry, as the low-yield environment which has helped to encourage investment in alternative assets may begin to change.
However, the institutional investors Preqin surveyed remain committed to alternatives as part of their portfolios, with the majority
planning to maintain or increase their allocation over the longer term across all alternative asset classes.
Preqin’s online platform is an indispensable fundraising and investor relations tool for any firm managing or looking to manage
institutional capital. Thousands of professionals use Preqin every day to source new investors, access exclusive information on new RFPs
and fund searches, monitor the market and track competing firms.
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York, London, Singapore, Hong Kong or San Francisco offices.
NORTH AMERICA
19% PUBLIC PENSION FUND
51%
9% INSURANCE COMPANY
FOUNDATION
7%
REST OF WORLD ENDOWMENT PLAN
4% BANK
4%
6%
16% OTHER
PARTICIPATION IN
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS BY NUMBER OF ALTERNATIVE ASSET CLASSES INVESTED IN
Private Equity Hedge Funds Real Estate Infrastructure Private Debt Natural Resources
Private Equity
Less than 5%
Hedge Funds
5-9.9%
Real Estate
10-14.9%
Infrastructure
15-19.9%
Private Debt
20% or More
Natural Resources
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Proportion of Investors
Source: Preqin Online Products
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and data request support through our Preqin Avail service.
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PERCEPTION AND
EXPECTATIONS
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS’ GENERAL PERCEPTION OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR VIEWS ON ALTERNATIVE
ALTERNATIVE ASSET CLASSES ASSETS PERFORMANCE
Exceeded
Private Equity
Previous 12 Months
Met
Hedge Funds
Real Estate
5
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Private Equity Venture Capital Hedge Funds Real Estate Infrastructure Private Debt Natural Resources
Private Equity Venture Capital Hedge Funds Real Estate Infrastructure Private Debt Natural Resources
18 20
15 15
12 12
8
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS VIEWS ON THE FREQUENCY WITH WHICH MARKETING DOCUMENTS MEET THEIR NEEDS
Private Equity
Always Meet
Venture Capital Needs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Proportion of Respondents
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
Natural
Private Equity Venture Capital Hedge Funds Real Estate Infrastructure Private Debt
Resources
74 %
62
%
40
%
78 %
81 %
82 %
71 %
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR VIEWS ON CHANGES IN PREVAILING FUND TERMS OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS
FREQUENCY WITH WHICH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INVEST IN A FUND DUE TO THE PROPOSED
TERMS AND CONDITIONS
Private Equity
Venture Capital
Frequently
Hedge Funds
Natural Resources
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Proportion of Respondents
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
7
ALTERNATIVES ARE
EVOLVING AND SO ARE WE.
A BRAND-NEW PREQIN PLATFORM IS LANDING IN
2018.
Lightning-fast tools
info@preqin.com
SECTION TWO:
PRIVATE EQUITY
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
88%
of investors consider valuations to be
63%
of investors have a positive perception
37%
of investors plan to commit more capital
one of the key issues facing the private of private equity, down from 84% in to private equity funds over the next 12
equity industry in 2018. December 2016. months than the past 12 months.
50%
of investors believe it is currently
38%
of investors reported that their private
53%
of investors plan to increase their
harder to find attractive investment equity investments over the past three allocation to private equity over the long
opportunities than 12 months ago. years had exceeded expectations. term.
SATISFACTION WITH
PRIVATE EQUITY
A mong investors interviewed by Preqin
in December 2017, 63% reported
a positive view of the asset class, a
Despite this, the majority (69%) of
investors felt that their fund investments
had met their expectations over the past
Current high valuations and the potential
impact on private equity performance
appears to have lowered investors’ return
substantial decrease from 84% of those 12 months, with a further 26% stating expectations: the proportion of LPs with
surveyed in December 2016 and the that their expectations were exceeded, up return expectations of 4.1% or more above
smallest proportion in three years (Fig. from 24% of those surveyed at the end of public markets has decreased by nine
2.1). This is perhaps unsurprising given 2016 (Fig. 2.2). The same trend is apparent percentage points from 2016 (Fig. 2.4). At
that the survey results also showed that over a three-year timeframe but with an the same time, there has been an increase
40% of LPs feel portfolio companies are even larger proportion (38%) of investors in the proportion of investors expecting
currently overpriced and that a market reporting that their expectations had been returns to either be the same as public
correction is imminent or likely in the next exceeded (Fig. 2.3). markets or only +2% more.
12 months.
Proportion of Respondents
Exceeded
70% 63% Positive 70%
65% Expectations
60% 60%
84% Neutral
74% Met
50% 50% 77%
75% Expectations
Negative
40% 40% 71% 69%
64%
Fallen Short of
30% 30%
Expectations
20% 29% 30% 20%
Fig. 2.3: Extent to Which Investors Feel Their Private Equity Fig. 2.4: Investor Return Expectations for Their Private Equity
Investments Have Lived up to Expectations over the Past Three Portfolios in the Next 12 Months Compared to the Previous 12
Years Months, 2012 - 2017
100%
90%
5%
80% 37% 40% 40% Public Market
43%
Proportion of Respondents
11
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
90% 90%
37% 33% 36%
80% 43% 40% 80% 39%
48%
Proportion of Respondents
Proportion of Respondents
52% 53%
70% More Capital 70% Increase
Allocation
60% 60%
Same Amount Maintain
50% of Capital 50%
Allocation
48%
40% Less Capital 40% 49%
45% 49% 55% 53% Decrease
30% 30% 46%
43% 43% Allocation
20% 20%
7% 11%
1%
Q1 2018
12% More Fund
35% Managers
Q2 2018
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
Valuations 88%
identified by 88% of respondents (Fig. Exit Environment 40%
2.9) – up 18 percentage points compared Fees 39%
to the prior year’s survey. Investors’
Deal Flow 30%
pricing concerns combined with record
dry powder levels are making it more Volatility/Uncertainty in Global Markets 18%
difficult for GPs to deploy capital and Performance 16%
a significant proportion (30%) of LPs
Availability/Pricing of Debt Financing 10%
are concerned over future deal flow;
Governance 10%
half of respondents believe it is now
harder to identify attractive investment Transparency 9%
opportunities compared to 12 months Regulation 9%
ago – up five percentage points from 2016
(Fig. 2.10). The exit environment and fees 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Investors’ Top Five Issues for Private Equity in 2018 by Investor Location:
EUROPE
Valuations
13
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
in 2018, as cited by 60% and 64% of Fig. 2.10: Investor Views on the Difficulty of Identifying Attractive Investment
respondents respectively (Fig. 2.13). Low Opportunities Compared to 12 Months Ago, 2016 vs. 2017
interest rates have also had a significant 100% 3%
5%
impact on LPs’ portfolios in 2017, as cited
90%
by nearly half (47%) of respondents.
However, with the Federal Reserve raising 80%
Proportion of Respondents
48%
interest rates three times by the end of 70% 50%
2017, and the UK following suit, there is a Easier
60%
significant proportion (34%) of investors
50% No Change
that feel the possibility of interest rate
rises will have a significant impact on 40%
More Difficult
portfolios in the coming year.
30%
50%
20% 45%
10%
0%
Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 - 2017
80% 30%
25%
Proportion of Respondents
70% 20%
Higher Returns 14%
15% 11%
60%
10%
41% Similar Returns 3% 3%
50% 45% 5%
0%
40%
Correction Imminent
Lower Returns
Assets Overvalued,
Assets Undervalued,
Assets Undervalued,
Assets Overvalued,
Further Price Rises
Assets Overvalued,
Next 12 Months
30%
Months Away
Price Rises
20%
34%
28%
10%
0%
Next 12 Months Longer Term
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
Fig. 2.13: Investor Views on the Macroeconomic Factors that Had the Biggest Impact on Their Private Equity Portfolios in 2017 vs.
Predictions for 2018
70% 64%
Proportion of Respondents
60%
60%
50% 47% Biggest Impact
in 2017
40% 34%
30% 23%
21% 20% 20% Predictions for
20% 18% 14%
12% 12% 2018
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 7%
10% 4% 3% 3% 4% 1% 3%
0%
Possibility of Interest
Geopolitical Landscape
Equity Market
Commodity Price
MiFID II
US Regulatory Reform
Unwinding of Central
US Trade Policy
Currency Market
US Domestic Policy
Low Interest Rates
UK-EU Brexit
Negotiations
Movements
Movements
Rate Rises
Proposals
EXPECTATIONS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
N early two-thirds (65%) of investors
are expecting the same level of
returns from their private equity portfolios
percentage points from just 18% in 2016 to
28% in 2017.
in terms of allocations, emerging markets
are proving to be of increasing interest to
investors: 30% of LPs plan to increase their
in the coming year as in 2017 (Fig. 2.14). Investors still believe that North America allocation to these regions in the next 12
However, 20% of respondents believe presents the best opportunities in private months. This is a significant increase from
their portfolios will deliver lower returns equity, as cited by 69% of those surveyed, 20% of investors surveyed in December
compared to 15% of investors expecting compared with 61% in 2016 (Fig. 2.16). 2016.
higher returns over the coming year. Over half (51%) of LPs believe Europe
presents the best opportunities, while Within emerging markets, over half
Small to mid-market buyout funds significantly more investors view Asia (51%) of investors surveyed believe
continue to present the best opportunities, favourably than did so the previous year China specifically is presenting the best
according to 49% of LPs surveyed; (32% vs. 20% respectively). opportunities at present; however, there
however, this is a significantly smaller has also been a notable increase in the
proportion than in previous years (Fig. Although the same proportion of LPs proportion of LPs with a preference for
2.15). The proportion of LPs favouring believe emerging markets present the Central & Eastern Europe in the past year
growth fund investments has risen by 10 best opportunities as at the end of 2016, (Fig. 2.17).
Fig. 2.16: Regions that Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 2.17: Countries and Regions within Emerging Markets that
Opportunities, 2016 vs. 2017 Investors View as Presenting the Best Opportunities, 2015 - 2017
80%
Emerging Asia
69%
70% China
61%
Proportion of Respondents
15
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Fig. 2.18: Extent to Which Investors Believe that Fund Manager Fig. 2.19: Proportion of Investors that Have Seen a Change in
and Investor Interests Are Properly Aligned, 2013 - 2017 Prevailing Fund Terms and Conditions over the Past 12 Months
100%
Agree that
70% 24% Slight Change in Favour
66% Interests Are 25%
71% 70% 74% of Investor
60% 76% Properly Aligned
50% No Change
63%
60% Have Seen
50% 45% Changes in Past 10%
40% 12 Months
32% 32% 25% Frequently Decided
29% 26% 26%
30% 25% 21% Believe Not to Invest
20% 17%
11% 12% 11% Alignment Can
10% 6% 8%
3% Be Improved Occasionally Decided
0% Not to Invest
Increased Transparency
Lock-up Period
Performance Fees
Performance Fees - How
GP Commitment to Fund
Hurdle Rate
to Invest
64%
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
88
Lack of team track record (62%)
88
Unfavourable fund terms (56%)
88
Below-average team track record (52%) Investors Screen
145
MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS INVESTORS ASSESS
WHEN SELECTING NEW FUNDS:
Private Equity
Funds Each Year
15
of These Funds
99
Successful team track record (80%) Reach Second-
99
Experienced team (78%) Round
99
Successful firm track record (58%) Screening
Investors
Commit to
4
Funds Each
Year
Insufficient information on
investment strategy 54%
17
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
3 5
4
1
2
7/8
1 2 3
LOS ANGELES COUNTY EMPLOYEES’ EMPLOYEES’ RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF STATE FARM
RETIREMENT ASSOCIATION TEXAS Type: Insurance Company
Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Public Pension Fund Location: Bloomington, IL, US
Location: Pasadena, CA, US Location: Austin, TX, US Total Assets: $250bn
Total Assets: $55bn Total Assets: $28bn Target PE Allocation: 4.0%
Current/Target PE Allocation: 9.4%/10.0% Current/Target PE Allocation: 12.5%/13.0% Plans to commit between $650mn and
Intends to commit between $1.2bn and Will commit between $600mn and $1.45bn $850mn across 10-12 funds, targeting
$1.8bn to buyout, special situations and across 17-29 funds, focusing on buyout, North America-focused middle-market
venture capital vehicles. growth and venture capital. buyout funds.
4 5 6
UMR COREM TALANX ASSET MANAGEMENT AALTO UNIVERSITY ENDOWMENT
Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Asset Manager Type: Endowment Plan
Location: Nantes, France Location: Cologne, Germany Location: Espoo, Finland
Total Assets: €10bn Total Assets: €130bn Total Assets: €1.1bn
Current/Target PE Allocation: 2.5%/3.0% Current PE Allocation: 2.3% Target PE Allocation: 10.0%
Will invest in three or four funds, Will seek to make new commitments Plans to commit €38mn across three funds,
committing €20mn to each fund, targeting over the next 12 months, focusing on targeting Europe- and North America-
buyout, fund of funds, turnaround and Europe, North America and Asia. Is looking focused buyout funds.
early stage investments. to commit to 10-15 funds, investing
approximately €400mn.
7 8 9
ENSPIRE CAPITAL LEONIE HILL CAPITAL MLC
Type: Family Office Type: Family Office Type: Asset Manager
Location: Singapore Location: Singapore Location: Sydney, Australia
Total Assets: $150mn Total Assets: $2.3bn Total Assets: AUD 100bn
Current PE Allocation: 50.0% Current PE Allocation: 70.0% Current PE Allocation: 5.0%
Will invest between $3mn and $5mn in one Plans to target 10 funds with an average Intends to commit between AUD 400mn
fund, focusing on investments in Southeast commitment size of $90-100mn per fund and AUD 500mn across 10-15 funds on a
Asia. with a focus on buyout, venture capital and global basis.
growth vehicles on a global basis.
40%
of respondents are finding it more
41%
of investors target venture capital
26%
of investors plan to increase their
difficult to identify attractive returns in excess of +4.1% versus public venture capital allocations in the long
opportunities than 12 months ago. markets. term.
71%
of investors stated their venture capital
$52bn
Amount of capital raised by North
63%
of investors plan to maintain or increase
investments have met or exceeded America-focused venture capital funds their venture capital allocation over the
expectations in the past 12 months. closed in 2017. long term.
62%
of respondents agree that fund manager
70%
of investors believe valuations are a key
35%
of investors plan to make seven or more
and investor interests are aligned. issue facing venture capital in 2018. commitments in the next 12 months.
SATISFACTION WITH
VENTURE CAPITAL
T he results of our December 2017
survey suggest that the general
opinion of venture capital has slightly
portfolios exceeded expectations dropped
from 17% to 8% in comparison to six
months prior, and a marginally greater
investors’ perception of portfolio
performance in both the past 12 months
and past three years is more negative in
improved among institutional investors proportion of investors were disappointed comparison to June 2017.
interviewed in comparison to the previous by the performance of their venture capital
year, as seen in Fig. 3.1. Nevertheless, the investments than in June 2017 (29% vs. Seventy-eight percent of respondents
proportion of investors with a negative 24% respectively). are equally as confident in the ability
perception of the industry remains at of venture capital to achieve portfolio
nearly a quarter (23%). Investors appear to be more satisfied objectives as they were when surveyed in
with venture capital performance over June 2017. Only 3% of investors now feel
The majority (71%) of investors reported the longer term. Almost 3x as many more confident in the asset class, while
that their venture capital portfolios investors stated that their investments had 19% are less confident (Fig. 3.4), likely
performed as expected or better over exceeded their expectations over the past a result of the growing concerns over
the past 12 months (Fig. 3.2). However, three years versus the past 12 months valuations and volatility in the market.
the proportion of investors that felt their (22% vs. 8% respectively). Nevertheless,
Proportion of Respondents
0% 0%
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017
Fig. 3.3: Extent to Which Investors Feel Their Venture Capital Fig. 3.4: Investors’ Change in Confidence in the Ability of Venture
Investments Have Lived up to Expectations over the Past Three Capital to Achieve Portfolio Objectives over the Past 12 Months,
Years, June vs. December 2017 June vs. December 2017
100% 100% 3%
4%
90% 22% 90%
32%
80% 80%
Proportion of Respondents
Proportion of Respondents
Exceeded
70% 70% Increased
Expectations
Confidence
60% 60% 74% 78%
49% Met
No Change
50% Expectations 50%
45%
40% 40%
Fallen Short of Reduced
30% Expectations 30% Confidence
20% 20%
29%
10% 23% 10% 21% 19%
0% 0%
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017
21
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Increase
70% More Capital 70%
Allocation
60% 47% 60%
51% Same Amount Maintain
50% 50%
of Capital Allocation
56% 59%
40% 40%
Less Capital
Decrease
30% 30% Allocation
20% 37% 20%
26%
10% 10%
15% 16%
0% 0%
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017
Fig. 3.7: Number of Venture Capital Fund Commitments Fig. 3.8: Amount of Fresh Capital Investors Plan to Invest in
Investors Plan to Make over the Next 12 Months Venture Capital Funds over the Next 12 Months
23%
1-2
35% 19% 21% 15% 36% 4% 5%
3-4
5-6
7 or More
21%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Proportion of Respondents
21%
$1-19mn $20-49mn $50-99mn
$100-499mn $500-999mn $1bn or More
Source: Preqin Venture Capital Online Source: Preqin Venture Capital Online
Valuations
Exit Environment
investment opportunities over the past
Fees
year, an improvement from 58% in June
Deal Flow
2017. Most investors (60%) reported no Performance
change in the level of difficulty involved in Volatility/Uncertainty in Global Markets
identifying attractive opportunities. Governance
Transparency
Portfolio company valuations remains the Regulation
key issue facing venture capital for the Perception of Industry by Public
majority (70%) of investors interviewed, Availability/Pricing of Debt Financing
although this proportion has declined Interest Rates
slightly from June 2017 (Fig. 3.9). The
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
state of the exit environment remains the
second most prominent issue, cited by Proportion of Respondents
Investors’ views on transparency and fees a key issue in December 2017 compared
in the industry have remained relatively with 45% in June 2017. Despite this, only INVESTOR VIEWS ON THE ALIGNMENT
unchanged over the past six months, 9% of respondents expect better returns in OF FUND MANAGER AND INVESTOR
INTERESTS
representing consistent issues in the the next year, compared with 16% in June
industry. Nearly 40% of investors do not 2017 (Fig. 3.11). Two-thirds of investors
feel that interests are aligned between believe returns will remain about the
fund managers and investors, and when same, while a quarter believe that returns 38%
asked in what areas the alignment could will be worse in 2018 compared to the past
be improved, 63% cited fees and 46% cited 12 months.
62%
transparency at fund level.
Fig. 3.10: Investor Views on the Difficulty of Identifying Fig. 3.11: Investor Return Expectations for Their Venture Capital
Attractive Venture Capital Investment Opportunities Compared Investments in the Next 12 Months Compared to the Past 12
to 12 Months Ago, June vs. December 2017 Months, June vs. December 2017
100% 100%
9%
90% 90% 16%
Will Perform
70% 60% 70%
Easier Better
60% 60% 47%
66%
Will Perform
50% No Change 50%
About the Same
40% More Difficult 40%
Will Perform
30% 58% 30% Worse
0% 0%
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, June - December 2017
23
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
STRATEGIES AND
GEOGRAPHIES TARGETED
E arly stage strategies remain the most
attractive to venture capital investors
moving into 2018, as reported by 32%
as seen in Fig. 3.13. North America-focused
funds remain the most likely recipients of
commitments from abroad: 75% and 47%
and Europe-focused ($16bn) venture
capital, fundraising activity in 2017 dipped
slightly for both regions: 280 North
of those interviewed (Fig. 3.12). General of allocators based in Europe and Asia America-focused funds closed on an
venture capital and growth funds follow respectively are seeking North American aggregate $52bn and 86 Europe-focused
closely behind, as targeted by 25% and exposure. Venture capital vehicles funds collectively secured $13bn (Fig. 3.14).
30% of investors respectively. As expected, primarily focused on investments in Asia However, 80% of investors surveyed by
the niche strategy of venture debt is are sought by the smallest proportions of Preqin view North America as presenting
targeted by the smallest proportion (5%) of investors based in both Europe (18%) and the best venture capital opportunities
respondents. North America (22%). in the coming year, while 52% favour
European opportunities (Fig. 3.15).
Investors across the globe typically commit Following 2016’s record fundraising year
to funds targeting their domestic regions, for both North America-focused ($56bn)
Fig. 3.12: Fund Types that Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 3.13: Regions Targeted by Venture Capital Investors by
Opportunities Investor Location
35% 100%
30% 90%
30%
Proportion of Respondents
82%
25% 80% 79%
75%
Proportion of Respondents
25%
20% 70% North America-
65%
20% Focused Funds
16% 60%
15%
12% 50% 47% Europe-Focused
10% 40% Funds
40%
5%
5% Asia-Focused
30%
22% Funds
0% 20% 18% 18%
Venture Capital
Venture Debt
Growth
Expansion/
Early Stage
Early Stage:
Late Stage
10%
(All Stages)
Seed
0%
North America Europe Asia
Investor Location
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Venture Capital Online
Fig. 3.14: North America- vs. Europe-Focused Venture Capital Fig. 3.15: Regions that Investors View as Presenting the Best
Fundraising, 2014 - 2017 Opportunities
400 90%
351 80%
350 80%
305 300
300 280 2014 70%
Proportion of Respondents
250
2015 60%
200 52%
2016 50%
150
102 90 92 2017 40%
100 86 34%
51 53 56 52 30%
50
11 10 16 13
0 20%
No. of Funds Aggregate No. of Funds Aggregate
Closed Capital Raised Closed Capital Raised 10%
($bn) ($bn)
0%
North America Europe North America Europe Asia
Source: Preqin Venture Capital Online Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
IN FOCUS: INVESTING IN
VENTURE CAPITAL
W hile Preqin includes venture capital
strategies within the context of
private equity, we also join a growing
Fig. 3.16: Venture Capital Investors’ Targeted Returns: Venture Capital vs. Private
Equity Investments
50%
population of investors in acknowledging 45% 43%
41%
the unique characteristics of the space that
Proportion of Respondents
40% 37%
allow it to exist as a standalone asset class. 35%
31%
Nearly a fifth (17%) of investors surveyed Venture Capital
30%
at the end of 2017 maintain a separate
25%
allocation for venture capital within their Private Equity
20% 17%
portfolio. 14%
15%
10% 8% 9%
PROPORTION OF INVESTORS THAT
MAINTAIN A SEPARATE VENTURE CAPITAL 5%
ALLOCATION 0%
Same as Public Public Market Public Market Public Market
17% Market +2% +2.1% to 4% +4.1% and
Above
Targeted Returns
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
83% Fig. 3.17: Venture Capital Investor Views on How Current Valuations for Portfolio
Companies Will Impact Returns in the Next 12 Months and Longer Term: Venture
Capital vs. Private Equity
Maintain Separate Allocation
100%
Do Not Have Separate Allocation
90%
33% 35% 32% 34%
Proportion of Respondents
25
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SECTION FOUR:
HEDGE FUNDS
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
INVESTORS WARM TO
HEDGE FUNDS IN 2018
O ur latest survey reveals a reversal
of the trends we have seen since
the middle of the decade in regard to
with a turbulent start to 2018, market
volatility looks on the rise, and this
could lead to a better environment for
portfolios of hedge funds, perhaps, in
regard to the twin issues of performance
and fees, it is a case of plus ça change, plus
institutional sentiment surrounding hedge hedge fund performance, as well as c’est la même chose. Performance and fees
funds. In a time when the performance of more capital flowing into hedge funds, have topped investor concerns since the
hedge funds is much improved – hedge particularly those strategies with less start of 2014, and for 2018, this remains
fund returns hit a four-year high in 2017 correlation to equity markets. Although unchanged. Investors are still looking for
– investor sentiment has turned more large proportions of investors surveyed hedge funds to show what they are worth,
positive. In 2017 there was a return to net have indicated that they may reduce their which means successfully navigating
inflows, following fundraising difficulties exposure to the asset class in 2018, we see the choppy waters of 2018’s markets, as
in the latter half of 2015 and 2016, and similarly high levels with plans to put more well as continuing to work to better align
the value of the capital invested by capital to work – in fact, the highest levels interests.
institutional investors has reached record we have recorded since 2013. And there
highs of $2.06tn, as at December 2017. is more positive news in terms of the size Although we may see little change, in
and number of mandates open in 2018. respect to the challenges investors see in
In 2018, there are further signs that The number of open fund searches we the hedge fund sector, we have witnessed
fortunes for hedge funds may continue track has grown 25% since 2017, and the continued evolution in the industry today.
to improve. Our survey results show average size of each mandate has grown Our special feature, ‘Emerging Trends’
that the largest proportion of investors by 40% over the same timeframe. So it on page 36, shows investors’ outlook
believe that equity markets are hitting looks likely more money will fall into the on some of the hot topics in the hedge
the peak of the cycle and as a result are hands of more managers in 2018. fund world today: alternative risk premia,
positioning themselves more defensively cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence/
going forwards. Whether this turns out However, despite the improved outlook machine learning.
to be true or not, only time will tell, but among investors for their individual
72%
of investors reported that their hedge
70% / 65%
of investors have cited performance and
27%
of investors are planning to increase
fund investments met or exceeded fees respectively as key issues for the their allocation to hedge funds in 2018,
expectations in 2017, a significant hedge fund industry in 2018. up from 20% the previous year.
improvement from 34% in 2016.
85%
of investors saw an improvement in
55%
of investors surveyed issued a
27%
of investors are looking to scale back
hedge fund management fees in 2017; redemption request in 2017, with their allocation to hedge funds in 2018,
however, 64% want to see further performance over the past three years down from 38% the previous year.
improvement in 2018. cited by 39% as the reason behind this.
Performance 70%
53%
25% 48% 45%
25% 50%
41%
20% 40% 38% 35% 35% 33%
15% 15%
15% 30% 24% 24% 22%
10% 20% 20%
10% 9% 20% 18% 15%
7% 7% 7%
5% 11%
10% 8% 7%
5%
0% 0%
US Domestic Policy (e.g.
Tax Reform, Healthcare
Unwinding of Central
Commodity Price
US Trade Policy
Currency Market
Equity Market
Geopolitical Landscape
Possibility of Interest
Infrastructure Plan)
Bank Balance Sheets
Fund Underperformance
Reducing Size of HF
Fees and Low Returns
Change of Strategy
Lack of Transparency
Movements
Reducing Relationships
Areas of Wider Portfolio
within HF Portfolio
Combination of High
Relative to Benchmark
Movements
Movements
Underperformance
with HF Managers
Alternative Assets
Rate Rises
Portfolio
29
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
INVESTOR OUTLOOK ON
PERFORMANCE
A s 2016 drew to a close, the hedge
fund industry witnessed widespread
levels of investor dissatisfaction:
Fig. 4.4: Extent to Which Investors Feel Their Hedge Fund Investments Have Lived up to
Expectations in the Past 12 Months, 2013 - 2017
100% 3%
two-thirds of investors surveyed in 8% 9% 12%
90% 21%
December 2016 reported that their hedge
fund investments had not met their 80% 31%
Proportion of Respondents Exceeded
performance expectations over the course 70% Expectations
of the year, and nearly half (47%) had 57%
60% 58%
issued redemption requests in 2016. 2017, 60%
Met
however, has seen a resurgence in the 50% Expectations
63%
hedge fund industry: annual returns sit at 40%
a four-year high and investors allocated a 66% Fell Short of
30% Expectations
net $45bn to the industry over the course
of the year. 20%
35% 33% 29%
10%
HEDGE FUND PERFORMANCE IN 2017 16%
30%
greatest proportion since 2013 (84%),
when the Preqin All-Strategies Hedge 25%
Fund benchmark last generated an annual
return in the double digits. Indeed, two- 20% 19%
17%
thirds of investors reported that returns
15% 13%
from at least half of their hedge fund 11%
investments met their expectations in 10%
6%
2017, with 13% seeing all returns in line
5%
with expectations (Fig. 4.5).
0%
Investors reported the highest levels 0% 1-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-99% 100%
of satisfaction with the performance of Proportion of Hedge Fund Portfolio
emerging markets-focused and equity Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
strategies (Fig. 4.6), with these benchmarks
returning 15.86% and 15.01% respectively challenging for CTA managers throughout
ANNUAL NET RETURNS OF in 2017. Respondents had mixed views 2017 with these vehicles delivering an
HEDGE FUNDS (%), 2013 - 2017 on activist trading styles: nearly half (43%) annual return of 3.24%, eight percentage
reported that activist strategies fell short points lower than the 11.41% return of
of expectations, but a significant 24% felt hedge funds.
12.72
11.41 they performed better than expected.
7.67 While many investors reported that
5.16 Large levels of investors reported their hedge fund investments had met
2.17 dissatisfaction with the performance expectations in 2017, a not insignificant
of CTAs and macro strategies. Macro 29% of investors reported that hedge
strategies generated the second funds had failed to impress. With
lowest return (+5.57%) of any top-level regards to the main driver of this
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 strategy, while market conditions proved underperformance, investors were largely
divided: performance relative to their Fig. 4.6: Investor Views on Hedge Fund Portfolio Performance in 2017 Relative to
internal benchmark was cited by 40% Expectations by Strategy
of respondents, as was performance 100% 3%
Proportion of Respondents
11% 9% 8% 7% 4% 4%
90% Exceeded
relative to fees (29%) and returns in light 27% 26% 24% 20%
80% Expectations
of the extended and continued strong 70% 46% 49% 54%
performance of equity markets (24%), as 60% 33% 63%
67% 68% 69% Met
50% 50% 50% 59%
seen below. Expectations
40%
30%
TOP THREE REASONS WHY HEDGE 43% 50% 47% 43%
20% Fell Short of
FUNDS FAILED TO MEET INVESTORS’ 23% 24% 30%
10% 21% 22% 23% 22% Expectations
EXPECTATIONS IN 2017 0%
Equity Strategies
Credit Strategies
Multi-Strategy
Discretionary CTA
Emerging Markets
Macro Strategies
Fund of Hedge Funds
Systematic CTA
40%
29%
24%
Did Not Meet Returns Failed to Fig. 4.7: Length of Time for Which Investors Will Tolerate Hedge Fund
Internal Were Too Meet or Underperformance before Redemption
Benchmark Low in Light Beat Equity 30%
of Fees Paid Market 26%
Returns
Proportion of Respondents
25%
7-11 Months
On a Case-by-
a fund not meeting their expectations.
Less than
12 Months
18 Months
12-18 Months
3 Months
3-5 Months
More than
Case Basis
Twenty-six percent of respondents
will remain invested in a fund that
underperforms for more than 18 months
before considering a redemption (Fig. 4.7), Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
highlighting the long-term nature of many
investors’ allocations to the asset class and
the tolerance they may have for short- Fig. 4.8: Investor Return Expectations for Their Hedge Fund Investments in the Next 12
Months Compared to the Past 12 Months
term performance issues.
PERFORMANCE IN 2018
In 2017, hedge funds delivered their
highest annual return since 12.72% in
28%
2013, with the Preqin All-Strategies Hedge 32%
Will Perform Better
Fund benchmark reaching 11.41%. Among
investors interviewed at the end of 2017,
views were mixed as to whether hedge Will Perform About the Same
31
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
INVESTOR OUTLOOK ON
FEES
F ees remain a key issue at the forefront
of the hedge fund industry. Investors
have put pressure on the fee structure
The improvement in investor sentiment
stems from a range of factors surrounding
hedge fund terms and conditions –
INVESTORS PLANNING TO SEEK CHANGES
TO FEES CHARGED BY HEDGE FUNDS IN
THEIR PORTFOLIO IN 2018
of hedge funds in recent years, with decreasing fees and providing new
many high-profile investors citing fees provisions to protect investor capital are
as a driving factor behind hedge fund just some of the ways managers have
redemptions. This pressure is leading to looked to better align interests.
41%
an evolution both in what fee is charged
and also how it is levied. While the average CHANGES IN 2017 vs. AREAS TO IMPROVE
levels of management and performance IN 2018 59%
fees have been declining in recent years, The vast majority (85%) of investors
managers have also looked to add more interviewed in December 2017 have seen
provisions as a way of aligning their an improvement in the management fees
interests with those of their investors. charged by hedge funds over the course
of the past 12 months (Fig. 4.11). However,
Seeking Changes
INVESTOR SENTIMENT nearly two-thirds (64%) want to see further Not Seeking Changes
Investor sentiment with regards to the improvement in 2018, and while the
alignment of interests with their fund majority of investors seeking changes to
managers has improved over the course fees in 2018 will look for reductions in both with a wider range of options following
of 2017: two in five investors interviewed the management and performance fee, this demand for change, highlighted by the
feel their goals are aligned with those of 31% are looking for improvement solely in 34% of investors seeking improvements to
their hedge fund managers, an increase the management fee. the hurdle rate provision in 2018.
of nine percentage points from 2016
(Fig. 4.9). This stems from the favourable While investor concerns with management Hurdle rates and high-water marks are
changes investors have seen to hedge fees centre on the amount, the attitude the most sought-after provisions among
fund terms and conditions over the course of investors towards performance fees is the hedge fund investor community, with
of the year: the majority (55%) of investors different: 32% of respondents are looking 55% and 48% of respondents seeking
interviewed in December 2017 reported for improvements to how performance these provisions on their hedge fund
seeing changes to hedge fund terms and fees are charged, compared to 20% investments respectively (Fig. 4.12).
conditions in their favour in 2017, with no that want a reduction in the level of Provisions more commonly associated
respondents seeing changes favourable to performance fee. As such, the hedge with private equity funds, such as
hedge fund managers (Fig. 4.10). fund performance fee is not so much clawbacks, are sought by fewer investors.
decreasing as evolving to provide investors
Fig. 4.9: Extent to Which Investors Believe Investor and Fund Fig. 4.10: Proportion of Investors that Have Seen a Change in
Manager Interests Are Properly Aligned, 2015 - 2017 Prevailing Fund Terms and Conditions over the Past 12 Months
100%
90%
31%
80% 40%
Proportion of Respondents
Agree that
70%
69% Interests Are Change in Favour of
60% Aligned Investor
45%
50% No Change
Disagree that
40% Interests Are 55%
69% Aligned
30% 60% Change in Favour of
Fund Manager
20%
31%
10%
0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
Manager Commitment
Hurdle Rate
Performance Fees -
More Transparency
Amount
to Fund
Clawback 29%
Fig. 4.13: Frequency with Which Investors Have Decided Not to Fig. 4.14: Investor and Fund Manager Views on the Most
Invest in a Fund Due to the Proposed Terms and Conditions Effective Way for Hedge Fund Managers to Align Interests
41%
Skin in the Game
49%
15%
23%
Greater Transparency
14%
Frequently Decided
35%
Not to Invest Differing Fee Terms Available 8%
to Investors 4%
Occasionally Decided
Not to Invest Offering Customized Solutions 3%
and Separate Accounts 6%
Never Decided Not
24%
to Invest Offering All of the above
27%
50%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Proportion of Respondents
Investors Fund Managers
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017 Source: Preqin Fund Manager Survey and Investor Interviews,
November and December 2017
33
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
PEAK
45%
seen since our December 2014 survey; for
the first time in this period, the proportion
of investors that plan to reduce their RECOVERY/
exposure to hedge funds over the next 12 EXPANSION PHASE
months does not outweigh the proportion 29%
planning to increase their exposure. In
RECESSION PHASE
fact, the greatest level of investors since
5%
December 2013 are looking to increase
UNSURE
the amount of capital dedicated to hedge
17%
funds in 2018. Given that both retaining
capital and raising fresh capital has been
TROUGH
challenging for the past few years, this is
4%
welcome news for hedge fund managers.
Fig. 4.16: Investors’ Intentions for Their Hedge Fund Allocations Fig. 4.17: Amount of Fresh Capital Institutional Investors Expect
in the Next 12 Months, 2013 - 2017 to Invest in Hedge Funds over the Next 12 Months, 2013 - 2017
100% 100% 4%
8% 6% 2% 7%
13% 2%
90% 20% 90% 7% 11% 8%
26% 25% 27% 3% 11%
32%
80% 80% 9% 10%
$500mn or More
Proportion of Fund Searches
Increase 18%
Proportion of Respondents
24% 15% 6%
70% Allocation 70%
$250-499mn
60% 43% 60% 12%
44% Maintain 11%
50% 46% Allocation 50% $100-249mn
58%
40% 40%
60% 74% $50-99mn
Decrease 65% 69%
30% Allocation 30%
54%
49% Less than $50mn
20% 38% 20%
32%
27%
10% 10%
16%
8%
0% 0%
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2013 - 2017 Source: Preqin Hedge Fund Online
decrease than increase their allocation Fig. 4.18: Number of Hedge Funds Institutional Investors Expect to Add to Their
to equity strategies in 2018 (16% vs. 14% Portfolios over the Next 12 Months, 2013 - 2017
respectively). 100% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%
4% 4% 5%
9% 8%
90% 13%
STRUCTURES SOUGHT IN 2018 16%
80% 20% 22%
Although fewer investors use UCITS within 21% More than 20 Funds
0%
A significant proportion (27%) of investors
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
in emerging managers are planning to
Source: Preqin Hedge Fund Online
further increase their exposure to this
group. In a period when performance
and fees are at the forefront of investors’
minds, emerging managers have become Fig. 4.19: Investor Allocation Plans for 2018 by Strategy
more attractive for their potential to Proportion of Respondents with Exposure to Strategy:
increase the former and reduce the latter. Systematic CTA 23% 63% 13% 31%
Emerging Markets 22% 64% 14% 28%
MORE CAPITAL DUE TO FLOW INTO Credit Strategies 22% 63% 15% 23%
HANDS OF MORE MANAGERS Macro Strategies 21% 71% 8% 83%
After a period of improved performance, Event Driven Strategies 18% 73% 9% 57%
investors are planning to increase Multi-Strategy 17% 70% 13% 55%
their hedge fund allocations in 2018 in Relative Value Strategies 17% 77% 7% 68%
terms of both the number and size of Equity Strategies 14% 70% 16% 65%
the mandates. Using data taken from Discretionary CTA 14% 73% 14% 62%
Preqin’s Fund Searches and Mandates Activist 11% 63% 26% 23%
feature, which details the planned fund Fund of Hedge Funds 10% 63% 27% 31%
investments for the 12 months ahead,
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figs 4.17 and 4.18 show a breakdown
Proportion of Respondents
of investor searches by the number of
Increase Exposure Maintain Exposure Decrease Exposure
new funds they plan to invest in over the
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
next 12 months and the amount of fresh
capital they aim to deploy. The proportion
(25%) of investors that are planning to put
Fig. 4.20: Investor Allocation Plans for 2018 by Structure
$100mn or more of fresh capital to work in
Proportion of Respondents with Exposure to Structure:
hedge funds over the year ahead is at its
highest level since December 2014 (33%). UCITS 48% 52% 25%
Similarly, this capital is expected to go into Co-Investment Opportunities 18%
44% 50% 6%
the hands of more managers compared to
Emerging Managers 27% 68% 5% 22%
recent years: 29% of investors searching
for new hedge funds in 2018 are looking Listed Funds 23% 61% 16% 29%
to invest in six or more funds; again, this is
Separately Managed Accounts 21% 70% 9% 32%
the highest level since December 2014.
Managed Accounts - Platforms 17% 74% 9% 23%
35
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
EMERGING TRENDS
ALTERNATIVE RISK PREMIA
Alternative risk premia, an actively managed strategy which aims to generate returns above the risk-free rate, is a growing area of the
hedge fund universe. Investing through risk premia styles, either as the fund’s primary strategy or as an overlay of an existing strategy,
the fund typically operates in a similar fashion to a traditional hedge fund, taking long or short positions across asset classes. Risk premia
styles include: carry, defensive, liquidity/size, mean reversion, momentum, value and volatility. One in 10 hedge fund investors currently
allocate to alternative risk premia vehicles, with almost a third of these investors planning to increase their exposure to these strategies
over the course of the coming year. The growth of the market looks set to continue with 12% of investors considering allocating to the
strategy in 2018, the greatest proportion among the three emerging trends.
11%
42% of all investors actively invest in alternative
risk premia, while a further
31%
of fund managers have seen increased of all investors active in alternative risk
appetite from institutional investors for 12% premia plan to increase their allocation to
alternative risk premia products over 2017. the strategy in 2018.
are considering investing in 2018.
Used as a trading style, AIML hedge strategies employ machine learning algorithms to make autonomous trade decisions, using mass
amounts of data to compare new and historical trends. Parameters can be put in place with regards to exposure and costs, allowing
AIML algorithms to execute trades with reduced human oversight in the expectation of identifying trends humans may miss. Over half
(55%) of all investors currently allocating to AIML strategies are looking to increase their exposure to these funds in 2018, indicating the
potential for strong growth over the coming year in the sector that some see as the future of the industry. Eleven percent of all investor
respondents currently allocate to AIML hedge funds but a further 11% are considering moving into the space over the next 12 months.
11%
60% of all investors actively invest in AIML
funds, and a further
55%
of fund managers have seen increased of all investors active in AIML funds plan
appetite from institutional investors for 11% to increase their allocation to the strategy
AIML products over 2017. in 2018.
are considering investing in 2018.
CRYPTOCURRENCY
2017 saw a number of cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds enter the market. Over the course of 2017, Bitcoin continuously hit record
highs amid significant volatility, reaching a landmark value in November 2017: one unit of the digital currency became worth over
$10,000 for the first time. With such strong returns seen in the cryptocurrency space in the past 12 months, investors have increasingly
sought exposure to these instruments and have looked to hedge fund managers to provide products active in the cryptocurrency
market. Seven percent of all hedge fund investors currently invest in cryptocurrency funds, with half of these investors looking to
increase their allocation to this market throughout 2018. Furthermore, 6% of investors are considering making their maiden investment
in the cryptocurrency market over the next 12 months.
7%
65% of all investors actively invest in
cryptocurrency funds, and a further
50%
of fund managers have seen increased of all investors active in cryptocurrency
appetite from institutional investors for 6% funds plan to increase their allocation to
cryptocurrency products over 2017. the strategy in 2018.
are considering investing in 2018.
88
Unfavourable fund terms (70%)
88
Lack of team track record (57%)
88
Poor governance (45%) Investors Screen
220
MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS INVESTORS ASSESS
WHEN SELECTING NEW FUNDS:
Funds Each Year 20
of These Funds
99
Successful team track record (69%) Reach Second-
99
Experienced team (60%) Round
99
Successful firm track record (54%) Screening
Investors
Commit to
2
Funds Each
Year
37
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
1 5
4 6
7
8 9
2 3
1 2 3
INFLECTION MANAGEMENT SAN FRANCISCO EMPLOYEES’ ALFRED I. DUPONT TESTAMENTARY TRUST
Type: Fund of Hedge Funds Manager RETIREMENT SYSTEM Type: Foundation
Location: British Columbia, Canada Type: Public Pension Fund Location: Jacksonville, FL, US
Total Assets: $10mn Location: San Francisco, CA, US Total Assets: $6bn
Looking to add 4-6 new hedge funds over Total Assets: $22.2bn Current/Target HF Allocation: 20%/20%
2018, allocating $10-15mn per investment, Current/Target HF Allocation: 2.6%/15% Although looking to maintain its allocation
and is looking at a wide variety of strategies. Plans to invest an additional $2.5bn in the to hedge funds in 2018, the foundation
next year, and expects its total exposure will be looking for new managers over
to the asset class to be $3.5bn within two the course of the year. Will consider all
years. strategies.
4 5 6
BALLENTINE PARTNERS CHURCH COMMISSIONERS FOR ENGLAND BHF-BANK
Type: Family Office Type: Endowment Plan Type: Wealth Manager
Location: Wolfeboro, NH, US Location: London, UK Location: Frankfurt, Germany
Total Assets: $11bn Total Assets: £7.9bn Total Assets: €42.7bn
Current/Target HF Allocation: 8%/10% Will consider adding 2-3 new funds in 2018. Current HF Allocation: 1%
Is currently under its target allocation to Is considering long/short equity, quant, Is looking to invest in new hedge funds over
hedge funds. Is looking to invest globally global macro or volatility overlay hedge 2018. Requires a minimum of a one-year
with new managers over 2018. Will invest funds. track record and targets single-strategy
with emerging managers, considering those funds in the event driven space. Invests in
with more than $100mn in AUM and a two- traditional hedge funds and UCITS.
year track record.
7 8 9
CIR GROUP NONGHYUP LIFE INSURANCE MITSUBISHI CORPORATION PENSION
Type: Corporate Investor Type: Insurance Company FUND
Location: Milan, Italy Location: Seoul, South Korea Type: Private Sector Pension Fund
Total Assets: €980mn Total Assets: KRW 61.03tn Location: Tokyo, Japan
Current HF Allocation: 3% Target HF Allocation: 1.2% Total Assets: JPY 580bn
Is looking for long/short equity and macro Considering investing in hedge funds for Current HF Allocation: 8%
hedge funds. Typically invests with US- the first time; will target fund of hedge Will consider investing in single- and multi-
based hedge fund managers. funds investments via a managed account manager funds in the US and European
structure. markets but will not consider investment
opportunities in its domestic market.
88%
of investors surveyed feel their real
49%
of investors believe it is more difficult to
74%
of investors predict that the prospect of
estate investments met or exceeded find attractive investment opportunities interest rate rises will be the key macro
their expectations in 2017. than 12 months ago. factor to impact upon portfolios in 2018.
66%
of respondents feel that valuations are
56%
of surveyed investors cite residential
84%
of investors expect to commit the same
the key issue affecting real estate. properties as presenting the best amount of, or more, capital to real estate
opportunities. in the next 12 months, up from 76% in
2016.
SATISFACTION WITH
REAL ESTATE
R obust performance and high
distributions have driven the largely
positive sentiment in recent years, with
The effects of this are twofold: firstly,
the vast majority of investors surveyed
found that the asset class has met their
reporting reduced confidence in real estate
over the past 12 months has increased in
comparison to one year ago (Fig. 5.3).
two in five investors interviewed at the expectations over both the one- (Fig.
end of 2017 holding a positive perception 5.2) and three-year periods (not shown). Despite this, investors remain committed
of the asset class, and the proportion of Secondly, investors – now flush with capital to the asset class over the long term, with
investors holding a negative view falling – have to work hard to reach their target 32% of institutions surveyed planning
for the third consecutive year to just 5% allocations, and as such will be continuing to increase the proportion of their total
(Fig. 5.1). The ability of closed-end funds to invest capital in 2018 – at the very least, assets allocated to real estate, and a
to deliver for investors is made even more at the same pace as in 2017 (see page 42). further 57% planning to maintain their
apparent by the scale of distributions: current levels of exposure (Fig. 5.4).
nearly $900bn has been released back However, with concerns rife (see page
to institutions from fund investments 43), institutions’ confidence in the asset
since 2013, including a record $278bn class to achieve portfolio objectives has
distributed over the whole of 2016. slightly waned: the proportion of investors
Proportion of Respondents
52% 50%
70% 70% Exceeded
Positive Expectations
60% 60%
Neutral Met
50% 50%
66% Expectations
40% Negative 40% 67%
60% 51%
63% 56% Fallen Short of
30% 36% 43% 30%
Expectations
20% 20%
10% 10%
12% 10% 12%
7% 5% 7% 7%
0% 0%
Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2014 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2014 - 2017
Proportion of Respondents
Increase
70% Increased 70% Allocation
Confidence
60% 60%
74% No Change Maintain
50% 77% 50%
71% Allocation
55%
40% 40% 57%
54%
Reduced 60% Decrease
30% 30% Allocation
Confidence
20% 20%
41
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Fig. 5.5: Investors’ Intentions for Real Estate Investment in 2018 Fig. 5.6: Investors’ Intentions for Investment in Alternative Real
Compared to 2017 by Route to Market Estate Structures in 2018 Compared to 2017
100% 100%
90% 24% 20% 90%
37% 32%
80%
Proportion of Respondents
Fig. 5.7: Investors’ Expected Capital Commitments to Real Estate Fig. 5.8: Investors’ Intentions for the Number of Fund Managers
Funds in the Next 12 Months Compared to the Previous 12 in Their Real Estate Portfolios over the Next Two Years,
Months, 2014 - 2017 2016 vs. 2017
100% 100%
43
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
INVESTOR VIEWS ON THE KEY CHALLENGES FACING THE REAL ESTATE MARKET
OUTSIDE TOP 10
ISSUES
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017
EXPECTATIONS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
W ith record numbers of funds in
market to choose from, interviewed
investors are finding it difficult to source
for Europe (Fig. 5.14). All other top-level
regional targets were cited by a minority of
the investors surveyed.
Investors believe the best opportunities
within the market lie within the residential
sector, with 56% of surveyed investors
attractive opportunities in the market citing this property type (Fig. 5.16). Beyond
(Fig. 5.13). This highlights the challenges When asked which strategies they regard this, more traditional commercial property
facing fund managers in marketing as most attractive at present, 42% of types – industrial and office – were cited
their vehicles effectively; knowledge of investors identified core funds, although as the best targets for investment. In a
investors’ favoured targets can be of help value added, core-plus and opportunistic difficult retail environment, only 13% of
in understanding current demand. real estate were not far behind (Fig. 5.15). investors believe this is where the most
Despite the rising interest and increase in attractive opportunities are, while 17% of
Developed markets are considered the fund searches issued for real estate debt investors believe the best opportunities
most promising regions for real estate in recent times, only 21% of respondents can be found within niche real estate
investment: 63% of investors believe North felt debt strategies were presenting the (which includes senior housing and
America presents the best opportunities best opportunities. student accommodation).
at present, while 49% stated the same
Fig. 5.15: Strategies that Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 5.16: Property Types that Investors View as Presenting the
Opportunities Best Opportunities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
45
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
80% 80%
Proportion of Respondents
Proportion of Respondents
Change in Favour
70% Strongly Agree 70% of Fund Manager
62% 56% 63%
60% 75% Agree 60% 63%
74%
No Change
50% 50%
Disagree
40% 40%
Strongly Disagree Change in Favour
30% 30%
of Investor
20% 20%
29% 35%
30% 28%
10% 19% 10%
20%
0% 3% 3% 0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017
Other
Transparency at
Hurdle Rate
GP Commitment
Performance Fees -
Fund Level
Performance Fees -
to Invest
67%
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
88
Lack of team track record (56%)
88
Unfavourable fund terms (47%)
88
Below-average team track record (47%) Investors Screen
178
MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS INVESTORS ASSESS
WHEN SELECTING NEW FUNDS:
Real Estate Funds
Each Year
18
of These Funds
99
Experienced team (74%) Reach Second-
99
Successful team track record (69%) Round
99
Successful firm track record (60%) Screening
Investors
Commit to
2
Funds Each
Year
Insufficient information on
investment strategy 35%
47
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
4 6
2 5
1 3
7 9
1 2 3
TEACHERS’ RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE CANADIAN MEDICAL PROTECTIVE NIPPON LIFE GLOBAL INVESTORS
STATE OF ILLINOIS ASSOCIATION AMERICAS
Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Foundation Type: Insurance Company
Location: Springfield, US Location: Ottawa, Canada Location: New York City, US
Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Amount Investing in Next 12 Months:
$100-500mn CAD 40-50mn $180-280mn
Will commit to value added, opportunistic, Will invest in at least one new value added Will invest in 6-7 funds on an opportunistic
core-plus, debt, core and distressed real estate fund. basis across Asia, Europe and North
vehicles on a global scale, with $100mn America.
earmarked for co-investments in addition
to its direct activity.
4 5 6
SCHRODERS RETRAITES POPULAIRES TRYG
Type: Asset Manager Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Insurance Company
Location: London, UK Location: Lausanne, Switzerland Location: Ballerup, Denmark
Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Amount Investing in Next 12 Months:
£2bn CHF 100-150mn DKK 1bn
Will invest in five Europe-focused real estate Will invest in 10-15 real estate fund of funds Will commit up to DKK 1bn across three
funds on an opportunistic basis. vehicles across Asia, Europe and North Europe-focused core private real estate
America. funds.
7 8 9
STATE OIL FUND OF THE REPUBLIC OF THAILAND GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND POLICE MUTUAL AID ASSOCIATION
AZERBAIJAN Type: Private Sector Pension Fund (PMAA)
Type: Sovereign Wealth Fund Location: Bangkok, Thailand Type: Public Pension Fund
Location: Baku, Azerbaijan Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Location: Seoul, South Korea
Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: THB 4bn Amount Investing in Next 12 Months:
$500mn Will invest in Asia-Pacific-focused value KRW 100-120bn
Will invest in 3-4 value added and added, opportunistic and debt vehicles. Will invest in 3-5 value added, opportunistic,
opportunistic vehicles that provide core-plus and debt vehicles on a global
exposure to Asia-Pacific, Europe and North basis.
America.
93%
of investors surveyed felt that their
66%
of investors have less than $10bn in
4.1%
Investors’ average current allocation to
infrastructure investments met or assets under management. infrastructure, below the average target
exceeded expectations in 2017. allocation of 5.6%.
60%
of respondents identified valuations
$139bn
Total amount allocated to the asset class
67%
of investors are below their target
as they key issue for the infrastructure by the 10 largest infrastructure investors. allocation to infrastructure.
market in 2018.
39%
of investors expect to commit more
$24.8bn
Estimated current allocation to the asset
45%
of investors will not invest in first-time
capital to infrastructure funds in the next class of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, funds, the joint largest proportion in the
12 months compared to the previous the largest infrastructure investor period 2013-2018.
year. globally.
SATISFACTION WITH
INFRASTRUCTURE
T he majority (53%) of surveyed investors
have a positive perception of the
asset class – up from 44% in 2016 – and,
2015. Indicative of the level of investor
satisfaction with the asset class, the
proportion of respondents that felt their
likely a reflection of the sustained growth
within the industry, as well as the ability
of the asset class to achieve strong risk-
correspondingly, fewer investors have infrastructure investments had fallen short adjusted returns.
a negative perception of infrastructure of expectations was substantially lower at
investment (Fig. 6.1). This is likely due to 7% (vs. 23% in 2015). Fig. 6.4 shows that over the longer term,
strong performance within the asset class institutions remain committed to the asset
in recent years, with funds of vintage 2009 As at the end of 2017, 73% of investors class, with 55% of surveyed investors
onwards consistently generating median reported no change in their level of looking to increase their level of exposure
net IRRs around the 10% mark. confidence in infrastructure to achieve and a further 41% planning to maintain
portfolio objectives over the past year their allocation to infrastructure. The
As shown in Fig. 6.2, 93% of institutional – this is a greater proportion than 68% fact that only 4% are likely to reduce
investors felt that their infrastructure fund in December 2016 (Fig. 6.3). Likewise, allocations in the long term is indicative of
investments had met or exceeded their a smaller proportion (12%) reported investors’ confidence in the asset class to
expectations over the past 12 months, that their confidence in the asset class meet portfolio objectives.
an increase from 77% in December diminished over the year. Such views are
Proportion of Respondents
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017
80% 80%
Proportion of Respondents
Proportion of Respondents
10% 10%
15% 12% 9% 11%
0% 4%
0%
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017
51
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Fig. 6.8: Investor Views on the Key Issues for Infrastructure in Fig. 6.9: Investor Views on Where Infrastructure Is in the Current
2018 Market Cycle
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Proportion of Respondents Proportion of Respondents
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
60%
9% 49%
50%
39%
40%
30% 25%
19% 20% 20% 17% 15%
20% 14% 15%
10%
8% 6% 8% 8%10% 6%
More Difficult 2%
0%
Tax Reform, Healthcare,
Currency Market
US Domestic Policy (e.g.
Prospect of Rising
Geopolitical Landscape
Unwinding of Central
UK-EU Brexit
Commodity Price
Equity Market
Negotiations
Bank Balance Sheets
48%
Movements
No Change
Interest Rates
Infrastructure Plan)
Movements
Movements
43% Easier
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Infrastructure Online
53
SOURCE
investors for funds
IDENTIFY
new clients and partners
CONDUCT
competitor and market analysis
www.preqin.com/infrastructure
6. INFRASTRUCTURE
STRATEGIES AND
GEOGRAPHIES TARGETED
STRATEGIES Fig. 6.12: Strategies that Investors View as Presenting the Best Opportunities
Despite the high levels of competition for
mature assets, 47% and 36% of investors Core 47%
respectively believe core and core-plus
Opportunistic 36%
strategies currently present the most
attractive opportunities (Fig. 6.12). With
Core-Plus 36%
66% of respondents favouring brownfield
projects, the demand reflects the stable
Value Added 28%
cash flows generated from such assets.
Investors also look favourably on higher- Fund of Funds 14%
risk opportunistic (36%) and value added
(28%) strategies, which may be due to Debt 12%
heavy competition for core infrastructure
assets. Secondaries 9%
Fig. 6.13: Sectors that Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 6.14: Regions that Investors View as Presenting the Best
Opportunities Opportunities
Europe 47%
Renewable Energy 46%
Asia 29%
Transport 44%
Emerging Markets 25%
Utilities 37%
Latin America 16%
Telecommunications 28%
Australasia 10%
Waste Management 18% Africa 7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Proportion of Respondents Proportion of Respondents
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
55
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Lock-up Period
Hurdle Rate
Management Fees
More Transparency at
Performance Fees –
Manager Commitment
Amount
to a Fund
managers have continued to listen to, and
address, concerns by adopting terms that
meet investors’ needs.
88
Lack of team track record (54%)
88
Lack of firm track record (41%)
88
Unfavourable fees/fund terms (41%)
Investors Screen
Investors
Commit to
2
Funds Each
Year
Insufficient information on
45%
investment strategy
Insufficient information on fees/fund
26%
terms
57
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
SAMPLE INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTORS TO WATCH IN 2018
1 3 45
2 6
7 8
1 2 3
CANADIAN MEDICAL PROTECTIVE NIPPON LIFE GLOBAL INVESTORS UMR COREM
ASSOCIATION AMERICAS Type: Public Pension Fund
Type: Foundation Type: Insurance Company Location: Nantes, France
Location: Ontario, Canada Location: New York, US Amount Investing in Next 12 Months:
Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: €60-90mn
CAD 30mn $150-420mn Expects to invest in 2-3 funds focused on
Expects to invest in one unlisted value Expects to invest in 5-6 unlisted Europe and North America across a range
added infrastructure fund with a global infrastructure funds, targeting all industries of industries, using a mixture of new and
reach and exposure to a wide variety of (except for energy), focusing on Europe, existing managers in its portfolio.
industries. North America and Rest of World.
4 5 6
PROFELIA BAYERISCHE VERSORGUNGSKAMMER EQUITER
Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Investment Company
Location: Lausanne, Switzerland Location: Munich, Germany Location: Turin, Italy
Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Will invest in unlisted infrastructure funds
CHF 100mn €800mn opportunistically in the next 12 months,
Expects to make 5-10 investments both Expects to invest in 3-4 unlisted focusing on the renewable energy industry
directly and through unlisted infrastructure infrastructure funds, focused on Europe in Europe. Will primarily use existing
fund of funds vehicles, focusing on Europe. and North America, targeting a diverse managers in its portfolio, along with some
range of assets. new ones.
7 8 9
NONGHYUP BANK DAIDO LIFE INSURANCE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Type: Bank Type: Insurance Company ENDOWMENT FUNDS
Location: Seoul, South Korea Location: Tokyo, Japan Type: Endowment Plan
Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: Expects to invest in unlisted infrastructure Location: Canberra, Australia
KRW 200-300bn funds opportunistically, targeting the Amount Investing in Next 12 Months:
Expects to invest in unlisted infrastructure renewable energy, transportation and AUD 10-15mn
funds, targeting both primary and debt/ utilities sectors with a global reach, Expects to make 2-3 investments both
mezzanine strategies, focusing on the primarily focused on developed countries. directly and through unlisted infrastructure
renewable energy and utilities industries Will use both new and existing managers in funds, focusing on brownfield assets
across Asia-Pacific. its portfolio. and environmentally friendly industries
including clean technology and renewable
energy.
51%
of respondents have a positive general
46%
of investors believe portfolio companies
42%
of investors expect to invest more capital
perception of the private debt asset and assets are fairly valued at the start in private debt in the next 12 months
class. of 2018. compared with the past 12 months.
79%
of investors agree that fund manager
57%
of investors plan to make their next
98%
of investors plan to maintain or increase
and investor interests in private debt are private debt fund commitment in Q1 allocations to private debt in the long
properly aligned. 2018. term.
SATISFACTION WITH
PRIVATE DEBT
A t the end of 2017, Preqin
interviewed a sample of the investor
community to gauge their perspective
Fig. 7.1: Investors’ General Perception of the Private Debt Industry, 2015 - 2017
100%
90%
on the performance of their private
debt investments in 2017, as well as 80%
Proportion of Respondents
their attitudes towards the market 54% 51%
70% 60% Positive
moving forward. As in recent years with
60%
private debt, institutional investors have Neutral
demonstrated positive sentiment and are 50%
generally increasing allocations as the Negative
40%
market continues a trend of expansion
globally. 30% 37%
36%
31%
20%
Similar to the end of 2016, the majority
10%
of investors are confident in their private 10% 9% 12%
debt investments. More than half (51%) 0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
of investors surveyed in December 2017
have a positive perception of the asset Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017
Fig. 7.2: Extent to Which Investors Feel Their Private Debt Fig. 7.3: Extent to Which Investors Feel Their Private Debt
Investments Have Lived up to Expectations over the Past 12 Investments Have Lived up to Expectations over the Past Three
Months Years
10% 8%
25%
Exceeded Exceeded
33%
Expectations Expectations
59%
65%
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
61
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Fig. 7.4: Investors’ Expected Capital Commitments to Private Fig. 7.5: Investor Return Expectations for Their Private Debt
Debt Funds in the Next 12 Months Compared to the Previous 12 Investments in the Next 12 Months Compared to the Previous
Months, 2015 - 2017 12 Months
100%
90%
10%
13% 11% 10% 62%
0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
90%
5%
80%
Proportion of Respondents
10%
8% 8%
0% 2%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
Valuations 40%
40%
the end of 2017 remain wary of key issues 36%
Deal Flow
within the market for 2018. The proportion 29%
of investors that see the valuations of Volatility/Uncertainty 26%
in Global Markets 21%
private debt assets as a key issue has
Performance 33%
remained steady since December 2016 at 17%
40% (Fig. 7.8). However, all other issues 26%
Regulation
such as deal flow (29%), performance 16%
Availability/Pricing 22%
(17%) and regulation (16%) have declined
of Debt Financing 14%
in prominence from one year ago as
Transparency 10%
investor worries ease. 5%
compared with 65% that have seen no Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 - 2017
Preqin’s award-winning private debt data covers all aspects of the asset class, including fund managers, fund performance,
fundraising and institutional investors.
This comprehensive platform is ideal for fund marketers and investor relations professionals focused on private debt and
credit funds.
www.preqin.com/privatedebt
63
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
Proportion of Respondents
ILLIQUIDITY PREMIUM FOR Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
DIRECT LENDING
Fig. 7.11 reflects investor opinions on preference for illiquidity premia above 300
illiquidity premia specifically for direct basis points. Only 8% of respondents are
lending funds. The largest proportion (36%) accepting of compensation at or below 100
of investors expect their illiquidity premium basis points, potentially indicating less of
to fall within 201-300 basis points for a a focus on an illiquidity premium versus
direct lending fund, given general lifespans traditional assets and a greater focus on
of 3-7 years for direct lending funds. Thirty strategy-specific advantages.
percent of investors surveyed indicated a
335
METHODS USED BY INVESTORS TO SOURCE FUNDS:
■■ Through internal investment team (23%)
■■ Mainly internal or consultant
Private Debt
recommendations, some external Funds in Market
approaches (15%)
■■ Mix of internal and external
recommendations (43%)
88
Lack of team track record (53%)
88
Lack of firm track record (42%) Investors Screen
88
Unfavourable fund terms (47%)
240 Less than
15
Private Debt Funds
Each Year
MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS INVESTORS ASSESS
WHEN SELECTING NEW FUNDS: of These Funds
Reach Second-
99
Successful team track record (71%) Round
Screening
99
Experienced team (69%)
99
Successful firm track record (60%)
Investors
Commit to
1-4
Funds Each
Year
Insufficient information on
track record 46%
Insufficient information on
investment strategy 46%
Insufficient information on
fees/fund terms 29%
65
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
1 2 3
FORT WASHINGTON CAPITAL PARTNERS DUPONT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GLENDOWER CAPITAL
Type: Private Equity Fund of Funds Type: Private Equity Fund of Funds Type: Secondary Fund of Funds Manager
Manager Manager Location: London, UK
Location: Cincinnati, US Location: Wilmington, US AUM: $3bn
AUM: $4.7bn AUM: $2bn Will look to target distressed debt, special
Will target distressed debt and mezzanine Plans to make new commitments to private situations and mezzanine vehicles. Will
vehicles, focused predominantly on debt funds over the next 12 months as invest on a global scale, with a primary
North America, but will also consider part of its private equity allocation. Expects focus on North America, Europe, Asia and,
opportunities across Europe and Asia. Is to deploy $300mn to special situations to a lesser extent, emerging markets. Is
open to making new commitments with vehicles, as well as buyout and venture looking to continue working with existing
existing portfolio managers, as well forming capital funds, with a focus on opportunities managers in its portfolio and to form new
new GP relationships. across North America and Europe. GP relationships.
4 5 6
ZURICH INVEST FONDAZIONE CASSA DI RISPARMIO DI LOCALTAPIOLA GROUP
Type: Asset Manager LUCCA Type: Insurance Company
Location: Zurich, Switzerland Type: Foundation Location: Espoo, Finland
AUM: CHF 20bn Location: Lucca, Italy AUM: €8.5bn
Current PD Allocation: 7.5% AUM: €1.2bn Current PD Allocation: 5%
Will target direct lending, distressed debt, Current PD Allocation: 4% Plans to commit between €110mn and
mezzanine and special situations vehicles Plans to continue targeting private debt €120mn across 4-6 mezzanine and direct
that are mainly focused on Europe, over the next 12 months, with a preference lending funds.
the US and Asia, but will also consider for Europe-focused direct lending and
opportunities globally. mezzanine vehicles.
7 8 9
FINNISH INNOVATION FUND (SITRA) FTLIFE INSURANCE COMPANY KOREA FIRE OFFICIALS CREDIT UNION
Type: Sovereign Wealth Fund Type: Insurance Company Type: Public Pension Fund
Location: Helsinki, Finland Location: Hong Kong Location: Seoul, South Korea
AUM: €850mn AUM: $3bn AUM: KRW 772bn
Plans to invest in private debt over the next Current PD Allocation: 2% Will target direct lending and mezzanine
12 months with a mix of new and existing Mainly interested in CLOs, direct lending vehicles that are less than KRW 2.3tn ($2bn)
fund managers. Invests in mezzanine funds and mezzanine vehicles. Is sector agnostic in size and focused on opportunities in
and primarily looks to gain exposure to the and has a global outlook, with an interest in OECD countries.
Nordic region. Asia, the US and Europe; is also open to the
more developed countries within ASEAN,
but will not look at emerging markets.
IMPROVING INVESTOR
SENTIMENT CONTINUES
A fter a few years of concerns over
natural resources performance
affecting investor sentiment and therefore
managers looking to secure capital in 2018
need to be aware of and allay if they are to
have a successful fundraise. Twenty-seven
important part of investors’ alternative
assets portfolios as they continue to seek
diversifying assets that can deliver yield in
capital commitments, 2018 was a year percent and 25% of investors respectively a continued low interest rate environment.
of considerable progress. While 21% told us that the key issues in the natural
of investors interviewed at the end of resources space are commodity pricing For the asset class to continue to grow
2017 told Preqin that their investments and volatility in global markets – two it is vital that managers are able to
in natural resources had fallen short of very much linked concerns. Investors are demonstrate that they can successfully
expectations over the past year, this is looking for fund managers to generate deploy capital, as we started to see in
a significant improvement from 54% of alpha, while at the same time mitigating as H1 2017. Coupled with a considerable
those questioned at the end of 2016. much as possible the potential downside number of funds on the road in 2018
Furthermore, 18% said their natural of commodity price movements driven by and improving investor sentiment, this
resources investments had exceeded a geopolitical environment that is mostly indicates that 2018 will likely be another
expectations in 2017. both uncontrollable and unpredictable. strong year for the natural resources asset
class.
Despite improving sentiment with respect Despite a number of years of struggling
to the asset class as a whole, investors performance driven by commodity
continue to express concerns that price falls, natural resources remain an
79%
of investors felt their natural resources
81%
of investors plan to commit the same
27%
of investors surveyed consider each of
investments met or exceeded amount of capital or more to natural performance and commodity pricing as
expectations in the past 12 months. resources in 2018 than in 2017. the key issues for 2018.
22%
of investors surveyed have a positive
63%
of investors are below their target
44%
of investors see each of conventional
perception of the asset class. allocations to the asset class. energy and renewable energy as
presenting the best opportunities.
SATISFACTION WITH
NATURAL RESOURCES
W hile the proportion of investors
with a negative perception of the
asset class has halved compared to our
expectations over the past 12 months (Fig.
8.2). Furthermore, alongside a short-term
improvement in how investors feel their
Although fewer respondents have
reported increased confidence in the
ability of natural resources to achieve
December 2016 investor survey, the natural resources investments have lived portfolio objectives compared to the
proportion with a positive perception up to expectations, over a longer time previous year, the proportion citing
has also decreased: 69% of investors horizon a significant 62% reported that reduced confidence in the asset class has
interviewed at the end of 2017 have a their investments have met or exceeded fallen by five percentage points to 15%
neutral attitude towards natural resources expectations over the past three years, (Fig. 8.4).
(Fig. 8.1). up 17 percentage points from the
corresponding proportion in 2016. This
In a reversal from December 2016, the shows that the improvement in investor
majority (79%) of investors found that the sentiment extends beyond just the past 12
performance of their natural resources months.
investments met or exceeded their
Proportion of Respondents
Exceeded
70% 70% 37%
Positive Expectations
60% 60%
Neutral Met
50% 50% 61%
Expectations
51% 69%
40% Negative 40%
Fallen Short of
30% 30% Expectations
54%
20% 20%
Fig. 8.3: Extent to Which Investors Feel Their Natural Resources Fig. 8.4: Investors’ Change in Confidence in the Ability of Natural
Investments Have Lived up to Expectations over the Past Three Resources to Achieve Portfolio Objectives over the Past 12
Years, 2016 vs. 2017 Months, 2016 vs. 2017
100% 2% 100%
10% 12% 10%
90% 90%
Proportion of Respondents
Exceeded Increased
70% Expectations 70%
Confidence
52%
60% 60%
Met No Change
68% 75%
50% Expectations 50%
69
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
More Capital
Proportion of Respondents
Increase
70% 70%
Allocation
60% 60%
70% Same Amount 72% Maintain
50% 50% 58%
52% of Capital Allocation
40% 40%
Less Capital Decrease
30% 30%
Allocation
20% 20%
Fig. 8.7: Amount of Fresh Capital Investors Plan to Invest in Fig. 8.8: Investors’ Intentions for Their Natural Resources
Unlisted Natural Resources Funds over the Next 12 Months Allocations in the Next 12 Months by Structure
8%
Direct Investments 48% 52%
$50-99mn
47% Listed Funds 33% 67%
$100-349mn
Open-Ended Funds 40% 60%
$350mn or More
Closed-End Funds 43% 55% 2%
25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Proportion of Respondents
Increase Allocation Maintain Allocation Decrease Allocation
Source: Preqin Natural Resources Online Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017
Performance 27%
Commodity Pricing 27%
global markets (41%), performance (41%)
and the exit environment (30%) were cited Volatility/Uncertainty in Global Markets 25%
Timberland
Water
Agriculture/
Conventional
20%
Mining
Farmland
Energy
Energy
10% 21%
6%
0%
Dec-16 Dec-17
Strategy
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 - 2017
71
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
STRATEGIES AND
GEOGRAPHIES TARGETED
A s shown in Fig. 8.12, institutional
investors still feel that primary
funds present the best opportunities for
As was the case one year ago, the
largest proportions of natural resources
investors believe that the energy sector,
Two-thirds of investors believe that
North America currently presents the
best investment opportunities in natural
investment. With debt and mezzanine both conventional (44%) and renewable resources, followed by Europe (35%, Fig.
funds rising in prominence as a strategy (44%), provides the best opportunities 8.14). Just under a quarter of investors
across real assets, it is unsurprising that in the current market (Fig. 8.13). Water believe emerging markets provide the
one-fifth of investors identified debt as and agriculture/farmland are viewed as best opportunities for investment and,
providing the best opportunities, a nine- presenting the best opportunities for as Fig. 8.15 shows, just 16% are looking
percentage-point increase from December investment by 26% and 25% of investors to increase their allocation to emerging
2016. respectively. markets in the coming year.
Fig. 8.12: Strategies that Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 8.13: Sectors that Investors View as Presenting the Best
Opportunities, 2016 vs. 2017 Opportunities, 2016 vs. 2017
80% 50%
46%
70% 45% 44% 44%
70%
Proportion of Respondents
Proportion of Respondents
0% 0%
Metals &
Renewable
Timberland
Water
Agriculture/
Conventional
Mezzanine
Primary
Fund of
Secondaries
Mining
Farmland
Funds
Energy
Energy
Debt/
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 - 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 - 2017
Fig. 8.14: Regions that Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 8.15: Investors’ Expected Change in Their Natural Resources
Opportunities Allocations to Emerging Markets over the Longer Term
AREAS OF CHANGE
Roughly one-third of investors have seen commitments. Nineteen percent of LPs occasionally deciding not to invest
positive changes in prevailing fund terms investors have seen changes over the in a fund due to the proposed terms
and conditions over the past year, likely past 12 months in terms of the amount of and conditions (Fig. 8.18). However, the
a result of the increased competition capital managers commit to a fund, while proportion of investors that have never
for investor capital. As seen in Fig. 8.17, 14% and 11% would like to see future rejected a fund proposal based on the
increased transparency at the fund level improvement in how performance fees are terms and conditions has doubled to
and management fees are the areas in charged and hurdle rates respectively. 10%. With investors rejecting funds less
which the most investors have both seen frequently based on terms and conditions,
change over the past 12 months and IMPACT ON INVESTMENT DECISIONS it is perhaps a sign that fund managers
believe alignment can still be improved. Attitudes towards fund terms and have done a better job of aligning interests
Fees remain a point of contention as conditions impact a large majority of in initial fund proposals.
they have a material impact on the net investors’ decisions as to whether to
returns investors see from their capital invest in a specific fund, with 80% of
Fig. 8.17: Areas in Which Investors Have Seen a Change in Fig. 8.18: Frequency with Which Investors Have Decided Not to
Prevailing Terms and Conditions over the Past 12 Months and Invest in a Fund Due to the Proposed Terms and Conditions,
Where They Believe Alignment Can Be Improved 2016 vs. 2017
35% 31% 100%
5%
30% 29% Have Seen 10%
90%
Changes in
Proportion of
25%
Respondents
Never Decided
15% 14% 70% Not to Invest
11% 11% Believe
10% 8% Alignment Can 60%
6% 6% 6% 6% 71%
5% 5% 6% 3% Be Improved Occasionally Decided
50% 80%
0% Not to Invest
40%
Lock-up Period
Manager Commitment
Performance Fees –
Hurdle Rate
More Transparency
Performance Fees –
Performance Fees –
at Fund Level
Not to Invest
to a Fund
20%
10% 23%
10%
0%
Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2017 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 - 2017
73
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2018
88
Lack of team track record (55%)
88
Lack of firm track record (45%)
88
Unfavourable fees/fund terms (45%) Investors Screen
99
Firm track record (55%)
Investors
Commit to
1-2
Funds Each
Year
Insufficient information on
investment strategy 41%
4
3
5
1
7 8
2
6
9
1 2 3
CITY OF PHOENIX EMPLOYEES’ AFORE PROFUTURO NORTH SKY CAPITAL
RETIREMENT SYSTEM Type: Private Sector Pension Fund Type: Private Equity Fund of Funds
Type: Public Pension Fund Location: Mexico City, Mexico Manager
Location: Phoenix, US AUM: MXN 426bn Location: Minneapolis, US
AUM: $2.3bn Plan: Plans to opportunistically approach AUM: $1.2bn
Plan: Recently established a 4% target fund managers in the asset class over the Plan: Will commit to four or five new
allocation to natural resources, and began next 12 months, with a preference for natural resources funds over the next 12
a search for managers in late 2017. The targeting the Mexican timber and energy months. Will look to deploy up to $100mn
number of managers to be hired and markets. and will continue to target North America-
the specific mandates have not been focused energy and water opportunities.
determined.
4 5 6
AEVWL PREVAER FONDO PENSIONE LIBERTY GROUP
Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Private Sector Pension Fund Type: Insurance Company
Location: Munster, Germany Location: Rome, Italy Location: Johannesburg, South Africa
AUM: €12.5bn AUM: €410mn AUM: ZAR 688bn
Plan: Will make new investments over the Plan: Will consider making further Plan: Will invest on an opportunistic basis
next 12 months, specifically in unlisted investment in European renewable energy in the renewable energy sector in the next
energy and timberland funds targeting throughout 2018, as part of its ongoing 12 months. Will consider both unlisted
Europe and North America. Typically private equity and infrastructure strategy. funds and direct investments in South
commits €30mn per fund. Invests in the region solely via unlisted Africa.
funds.
7 8 9
FTLIFE INSURANCE COMPANY CID GROUP AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Type: Insurance Company Type: Private Equity Firm ENDOWMENT FUNDS
Location: Hong Kong Location: Taipei, Taiwan Type: Endowment Plan
AUM: $3bn AUM: $1bn Location: Acton, Australia
Plan: Will invest solely via unlisted funds Plan: Seeks exposure to the asset class via AUM: AUD 1.5bn
over the next 12 months on a global basis. unlisted funds and will focus on the energy Plan: Open to direct investments and
Is interested in the energy and metals sector across Asia and Greater China over commitments through unlisted funds.
& mining industries, including the oil, 2018. Will focus on brownfield assets and
renewable energy, base and precious environmentally friendly industries
metals sectors. including renewable energy.
75
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