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D2 Capital Partners
Creation ∙ Deployment ∙ Structuring
Onshore Access • Global Platform D2 Capital Partners
Very little FDI in domestic consumption (i.e. education, healthcare, and retailing
at less than 4% combined); down from last year (8% of FDI) but represents
significant opportunity for growth capital.
Whilst the subsidy may help alleviate stress in the corporate sector and banking
system, loan growth (36% YTD) will likely pare back demanding greater need for
offshore funding and opportunities for strategic entry.
Softening of the VND is a concern but the crawling peg is manageable whilst
foreign debt still low.
Vietnam’s nascence still offers substantial Despite investment slowdown globally, FDI growth outlook
investment opportunity is positive
Growth factors driven by: 14
12% 9.9%
10% 8.9%
2009 CAGR (%)
8% 6.4% 6.6%
5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
6% 4.1% 4.1% 4.3%
4%
2%
0%
40%
Meanwhile, ODA commitments of $8bn 20%
for 2010 will help dampen bottlenecks to 0%
infrastructure development
% FDI [Disbursed] / GDP % FDI [Disbursed] / FDI [Announced]
SOURCE: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Global Financial Statistics, D2C Research
Imports reflect strong consumption Leakage concerns but below early 2008 near-crisis levels…
2000
1000
Vietnam’s domestic consumption a
USD millions
0
powerful driver to Vietnam’s 5.5% GDP -1000
-2000
growth guidance for 2009 -3000
-4000
The currency slide has been buffeted by O/N vs. 3M VNIBOR Spread (20DMA) 1M VNIBOR (%)
international aid (i.e WB, ADB, Japan) with
ODA disbursement of $2bn thus far. …As rates move upward, more support for the VND as the
Backlog FDI dollars providing VN extra cushion NDF spot / weak-side ceiling spread closing
whilst YTD disbursements only -12% YoY in Oct
20,500
Anecdotal discussions with the banks also 19,500
indicate speculation from corporates hoarding 18,500
dollars which has been short-term in the past… 17,500
Second worst to second best performing in the world Net FII flows positive on dips as confidence driving
Indications of strong liquidity with average daily opportunities for arbitrage…
150 700
trading volumes in October reaching an astounding
100 600
~USD315m for HOSE & HASTC
USD millions
50
500
Retail volumes ~95% driving the improved liquidity -
400
10 companies with market caps above USD1b with (50)
300
(100)
new additions: Vietcombank, Vietinbank, Eximbank
(150) 200
and Masan
Lagging equitization offering opportunity for private
companies to capitalize on domestic investor demand
MTD Net FII (LHS) VNINDEX (RHS)
Retail speculation driving volumes offering attractive Cumulative Net FII ripe for a new wave of capital
exits for listings… whilst portfolio excess has tapered off…
60% 250 3,000 120%
100%
2,500
200 80%
USD millions
USD millions
40% 2,000 60%
150 40%
1,500
20%
100
20% 1,000 0%
50 -20%
500
-40%
0% - - -60%
FII Buying as % Total Volumes(20DMA) Daily Turnover (20DMA) Cumulative Net FII (Feb. 6th, 2006)
Residential Office
Government stimulus providing indirect support Average asking rents showing signs of flooring in
to prices HCMC
Capital gains taxes may ultimately benefit Average occupancies up overall with overall
development as land speculation falls vacancy at 17.5%, down from 18.1% in Q2 ’09
Pick-up in supply of new developments indicating Major leasing agents experiencing increasing
confidence office space inquiries
Signs of recovery as average asking prices in Landlords offering more flexible rental contracts
residential flooring and incentivized packages
Mid-end and affordable residential segment
leading growth
Retail Hospitality
Occupancy high at 96% in HCMC with shortage of RevPAR in HCMC bottoming posting increases in
supply expected until 2011 Q3 ’09
Fashion and F&B key demand drivers with 30% of Access to finance difficulties delaying
inquiries coming from F&B alone developments offering opportunities
CBD rents relatively stable Vinacapital able to sell 70% stake in Hilton Opera
Retail sales grew 18.7% YoY Hanoi Hotel with 23% IRR
WTO opening of retail to foreign investors offers 2010 expectations are brighter with pick-up in
new leg of growth tourism and business trips
HCMC
Type No. Bldgs Supply (m2) Occup. Rate Avg. Rent
Grade A 12 105,275 97% $43
Grade B 30 119,305 84% $27
Grade C 32 267,995 78% $17
Total 74 492,575 84% $25
Hanoi
Type No. Bldgs Supply (m2) Occup. Rate Avg. Rent
Grade A 6 100,071 81% $63
Grade B 31 374,356 86% $30
Grade C 85 277,914 84% $22
Total 122 752,341 85% $32
mn)
USA 720.1 923.8 -22.0%
500 5
China 101.579 113.646 -10.6%
0 0
SE Asia 46.1 73.7 -37.5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Vietnam 1.1 1.1 1.9%
Total Value Average Deal Value
$113.65 $34.8
$101.58 35.0
100 YoY, -10.6% YoY, -1.5% YoY, -42.4% 50.9%
$73.67
Value 25.0 $20.1 $20.7
50
$46.05 YoY, 1.9%
15.0 $10.2
$1.14 $1.12
0 5.0
Healthcare Education
• $6.3b 2009 healthcare expenditure (9% • Annual spend per capita growing 29%
Industry YoY growth) with 69% from private Industry CAGR since 1995
Overview •HCMC Wght Avg Spend = $1,300 Overview • 45% YoY growth for university students
• Vinacap & DB invest $20m in Hoan My studying abroad during 2008-2009
• Pharmaceuticals • Primary / Secondary
Sector • Healthcare Services Sector • University
• Clinics • Vocational
Opportunities Opportunities
•Aesthetics
Despite the global slowdown, Vietnam The rise of the middle class consumer…
continues to consume ravenously at 20% 800 $702 $704
(USD)
high propensity to consume offers 400
300
attractive investment opportunities 200
With $US 65bn in 2009 retail sales (~67% 100
0
of GDP), we are convinced… 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
50 $46
45 - 49 $37 64.8% 66%
40
$30
30 - 34 30 63.5% 63.4%
64%
15 - 19 20
62%
0-4 10
0 2 4 6 8 10 - 60%
Male Female Million Persons 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, General Statistics Office, International Monetary Fund, World Bank
Creation ∙ Deployment ∙ Structuring 19
www.d2capitalpartners.com
How to Buy What You Like? D2 Capital Partners
Creation
Deployment
Structuring
CONTEXT: 4.10%
4.10%
22.40%
Target's management support
Strategic fit
FMCG distributor & retailer sought equity capital raise to 8.20%
Cash flow
expand into mass distribution. Regulatory hindrances in 10.20% Speed which value can be created
18.40%
sensitive sector to foreign participation required extensive Tax shields and investment savings
Brands / Products
professional advice. Transaction closed in <3 months 12.20%
Track record
14.30%
PREPARATION: Investor Concerns When
Investing in Vietnam
Investment Teaser
Business Plan Formulation
Detailed Forecasts & Valuation Model Key Takeaways
International caliber work and document
STRUCTURE: packs enhanced management credibility
Straight Equity
Convertible Bond (Loan) Bridge Financing
Professional sell-side advisory services
Call Option for Ownership Rights to FMCG Co.
ensured necessary provision of information
to investors for faster decision turnaround
EXECUTION: Structuring advice provided multiple
Investor Road Show solutions to potential deal killers
Term Sheet Discussions Coaching of management enhanced
negotiation techniques with investors
SOURCE: Grant Thornton Private Equity Survey 2009, D2C Research
Vietnam Office:
5th Floor, Nam Minh Long Building
61A Vo Van Tan, District 3
HCMC, Vietnam
www.d2capitalpartners.com