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The Economic Monitor Series. Free Edition.
Stock recommendations and price targets from top Wall Street rallied for a second day, as concerns about Europe's
brokerage firms sovereign debt crisis waned, giving investors the chance to add to
positions among recent winners among banks and retailers. The
DJIA was up 106.63 points, or 0.95 percent, at 11,362.41
Analysis and views on Fiscal plan draws flak, praise
The benchmark 10-year note last traded down 7/32 in price. Its
Economic Indicator Watch along with Graphs price had risen as much as 6/32 at midday after falling 18/32 in
early trading. Its yield was last 2.99 percent, up from 2.97 percent
List of companies earnings which hit and miss the analysts’ late Wednesday after touching a session low of 2.94 percent
expectations earlier.
Important Events Scheduled on December 03 The dollar was down 0.5 percent against the yen at 83.76,
weighed down earlier by a rise in the latest weekly jobless claims.
Economic Events Weaker dollar encouraged buying of riskier assets such as oil and
other commodities, while upbeat U.S. economic data added
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra support. On the NYME, crude for January delivery settled up $1.25,
Pianalto speaks on "Current Economic and Monetary or 1.44 percent, at $88 a barrel.
Policy Issues" at Oberlin College
Gold turned flat after failing to break above $1,400 an ounce, as
safe-haven buying faded after European lenders offered a liquidity
Corporate Events safety net for vulnerable banks and as U.S. data showed signs of
an improving economy. Spot gold was up less than 0.1 percent at
$1,388.60 an ounce at 2:08 p.m. EST.
Big Lots will report its quarterly results.
At least three to bid for AIG Taiwan unit: Sources Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3223 1.3137
FUTURES
LAST CHANGE
Wheat 747 0
JP Morgan
Piper Jaffray
Brean Murray
Goldman Sachs
Barclays
Stifel
Raymond James
S&P Equity
Wedbush
Nomura
UBS
Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own, and not that of IBTimes or its management. We advise users to check with certified experts before
taking any investment decisions.
The Intelligent Investor - U.S.
TOP STORIES
Sen. Judd Gregg, R-NH, stated the obvious today regarding a plan to deal with the nation's long-term fiscal well-being. He said, "There are no easy fixes here."
He may just as well have said that there are no easy ways to move forward even when you have a plan full of uneasy fixes. The National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform today unveiled its plan for cutting the nation's $13.8 trillion budget deficit down to manageable size and immediately triggered the kind of
opposition and criticism commission co-chair Alan Simpson predicted.
Simpson, former Republican senator from Idaho, said critics from both sides of the political spectrum would "rip the plan to shreds." He said the plan would be buried
"in an unmarked grave."
"But this baby ain't going away," Simpson added at today's press briefing. When lawmakers are forced to deal with the national budget this spring, the commission's
plan "will rise from the crypt."
The commissioners themselves may have begun digging the plan's grave. Of the panel's 18 members, 14 must vote to approve the plan for it to go to Congress as a
proposal. The commissioners will vote on Friday. Three commissioners - Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-IL, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-WI and Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-TX -- said
today that they would vote against it. Seven commissioners - Simpson, co-chair Erskine Bowles, Sen. Gregg, Sen. Kent Conrad, D-ND, Alice Rivlin, White House budget
director in the Clinton administration, David Cote, CEO of Honeywell International and Ann Fudge, former chief executive of Young & Rubicam - have pledged to
vote for the plan. Sen. Tom Coburn, R-OK and Rep. John Spratt, D-SC said they were leaning in favor of the plan. That leaves six commissioners on the fence -- Sen.
Max Baucus, D-MT, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-ID, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-IL, Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-CA, Rep. Dave Camp, R-MI and Andrew Stern, president of the
Service Employees International Union. Bowles has already said that if the supermajority of commissioners fails to approve the plan, it will still be a valuable document
because Congress can use it to spur debate on the issue.
The commissioners opposing the plan agreed with Bowles that the deficit is a problem that must be dealt with. Hensarling said the most significant result of the
commission's work was producing a plan, which lawmakers may now use to develop a better plan.
Schakowsky said the nation is "on an unsustainable fiscal course," but she could not support the plan because it did not share the burden, as professed, but leans too
heavily on the nation's more vulnerable populations.
"To reduce our deficit and debt by asking Medicare recipients to pay higher fees is not sharing the sacrifice," she said.
Hensarling and Ryan objected to the plan's call for ending tax breaks.
The plan intends to reduce the national debt by $4 trillion by 2020, by cutting discretionary spending and eliminating tax breaks. It would eliminate earmarks, cut farm
subsidies, freeze the defense budget and eliminate 200,000 federal jobs by attrition. The plan would also gradually raise the Social Security retirement age to 68 by
2050 and 70 by 2075. The plans also proposes cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.
According to the plan, over $1.4 trillion of the savings would come from discretionary spending, over $700 billion from mandatory spending, over $700 billion from tax
reforms, and over $600 billion from paying less interest on debt. Under this proposal, in 2020, the budget deficit is projected to be to just $382 billion, or 1.6 percent of
the projected 2020 GDP. By 2037, the budget would be balanced and then turned into surpluses in subsequent years.
The spending cuts would start gradually in 2012 in order to not disturb the fragile economic recovery, the commission said. Maya MacGuineas, president of the
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which group backs the plan as a mature way forward in dealing with the nation's fiscal problems, said that the plan will
find supporters even if it doesn't get the 14 votes on Friday.
"I think the plan is great and it will get support ," MacGuineas said. "It does a lot on every area, which unfortunately is necessary."
"No proposal on fiscal issues is serious that leaves the Bush tax cuts for the rich in place while raising taxes on the middle class and slashing Social Security and
Medicare," Trumka said. "All commission members should vote no on this misguided plan. All members of Congress should also oppose these job-killing policies if
they are raised in future legislation or budgets."
"The faux deficit hawks on the commission - and Senators who claim unemployment insurance must be paid for -- have no problem clamoring for more unpaid Bush
tax cuts for millionaires," Trumka said.
"Fifteen million people are out of work, and another eleven million have given up looking or are working part-time involuntarily," he said. "We need to invest in jobs by
rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure and green technologies and end tax breaks that send American jobs overseas."
John Irons, research and policy director for Economic Policy Institute, said "it is becoming increasingly clear that the Bowles-Simpson plan will not receive the required
14 votes to send the report to the President and Congress. The rejection of the proposal should not be seen as a failure to take deficit reduction seriously, but rather
that the policy approach adopted by the co-chairs is flawed."
Irons said the plan "fails to fully acknowledge the current economic crisis."
The plan calls for "serious belt-tightening" beginning in just 10 months, even though the nation's unemployment rate will still likely be between 9 and 10 percent, Irons
said.
"The plan includes no concrete, immediate action to create jobs or to spur economic growth in the near term," Irons said.
The Intelligent Investor - U.S.
Manufacturing Payrolls
Private Payrolls
Unemployment
FORE-
EST/GMT INDICATOR PERIOD UNIT PRIOR
CAST
Company Name Qtr Curr EPS Est EPS Act Diff EPS Rev Est Rev Act Rev Diff
ISLE OF CAPRIS CASINOS Q2 USD -0.07 -0.06 0.01 248.8 246.7 -2.1
KROGER CO Q3 USD 0.32 0.32 0 18529.7 18697.9 168.2
MET-PRO Q3 USD 0.12 0.1 -0.02 22.6 21.4 -1.2
Economic Events
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto speaks on "Current Economic and Monetary Policy Issues" at Oberlin
College - 0100 GMT
"Responding to inflationary and disinflationary pressures gets to the heart of what a central bank can and must do," Pianalto told an audience at
Case Western Reserve University.
"Ensuring price stability is our job. My belief is that by promoting price stability, the Federal Reserve is following the best course for supporting the
economic recovery," she said.
"Given the momentum toward lower inflation rates and sizable amounts of labor market slack already evident in today's pricing decisions, I expect
core inflation to remain quite subdued through 2013,"
"Although I do not expect an outright decline in the general level of prices, with demand in the economy still weak and unemployment so high,
further disinflation remains a risk to my outlook, Pianalto added. "I take this risk seriously, because in periods of significant economic slack, very low
inflation risks tipping into deflation."
Our economy is digging itself out of a deep hole and continues to perform far below its potential, Pianalto said, adding that she did not expect the
U.S. jobless rate to fall below 8 percent before 2013.
Company Events
Big Lots will release its third quarter results. Analysts expect the company to report an EPS of 24 cents, up from 27 cents in the year ago
quarter. Net sales for the second quarter increased 5.1% to $1.14 billion from $1.09 billion last year, but missed market projections of
$1.15 billion. Comparable store sales for stores open at least two years at the beginning of the fiscal year increased 3.8% for the quarter.
Gross margin for the second quarter was up by 50 basis points due mainly to lower markdowns as a percent of sales and a favorable
merchandise mix, while operating profit rate improved by 110 basis points compared to last year.