Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Greseli
de Evitat
la Bursa
3 martie 2006
“In care situatie este riscul mai ridicat: pe termen scurt sau pe termen
lung? De ce?”
Raspunsul care este acceptat atat in lumea financiara, cat si la o privire “la
rece” este termenul lung. (1) in cea mai mare parte din cazuri dobanzile pe
termen lung sunt mai mari decat pe cele scurt si dobanda este o expresie a
gradului de risc (2) factorii de nesiguranta, implicit de riscu, sunt mult mai
mari cu cat durata din momentul initial pana la obiectivul termenului lung
A…x……B………………………………………………………………………………………………………….C
Daca intre A si B (t.scurt) avem UN RISC ‘x’, pentru a avea un risc mai redus
acesta este unul dintre motivele pentru care raspusurile fie difera
Pentru cei care s-au referit la bursa si au indicat ca riscul scurt nu poate fi
“Sunt pietele eficiente? Adica reflecta pretul unei actiuni bursiere tot ce se
realitateabursiera@realitatea.tv
Da, atat la bursa de valori Bucuresti cat si la Sibiu, unde (nu uitati) ca se poate
Reactiile la numarul 5/10 bonus au fost mai numeroase, dar totusi departe de
numarul care reflecta volumul audientei care primeste aceste documente. Are
materialul lacune? Daca da, care sunt acelea? Este prea greoi? Sau prea simplu?
ambele adrese indicate si mai sus si mai jos, ne va face mare placere.
a devenit realitate in primele 3 zile, dupa care piata a inregistrat noi scaderi.
piata devine mai sensibila la stimuli externi care se vor inmulti, lumea se va
Bursa este simpla. Noi o facem dificila de inteles, dar nici altii nu ne ajuta...
Nu uitati ca mai exista sute de alte greseli care se pot evita prin educatie si
ghicitului in bobi.
In ultimele 2 zile am urmarit cu mare atentie cateva opinii care merita puse
fata in fata cu chart-ul indicelui SIF-urilor, BET-FI. Aceste opinii sugerau ca SIF-
fiecare moment exista ordine de cumparare!) Si arbitrii sunteti dvs; miza este
castigul sau pierderea in sif-uri daca intrati in acest moment. Dupa ce priviti
Dan Valcu
gresit cu ambitia sau cu castigul, dar fatal pentru trading si investitii daca nu
afacerea ta vinde inghetata oamenilor topiti de caldura. Dar dintr-o data, vine
Este valabil in special pentru cei care nu au facut inca marele pas in piata.
economia, finantele. Ok, este de dorit sa cunosti cat mai mult, dar castigul la
aceste domenii. La bursa se cumpara si se vinde. Masele sunt cele care prin
finante-banci nu sunt nici activi, nici mari castigatori la bursa. Este un fapt
este necesar dar acest minim nu are de-a face cu rapoarte financiare sau
[temeinic] arhitectura franceza sau baroca. Este bine daca ar stii pentru a se
inspira estetic, dar clientul din Pipera are nevoie de un alt set de valori pe care
este gata sa-l plateasca bine. La fel si pentru trader-ul nostru: el vrea si
ajuta sa devenim mai confortabil cu ele. De exemplu, TLV este diferit de RRC si
diferit de OLT. La fel BRD este diferit de SIF5. Un prieten ia timp sa-l cunosti,
care va devin “dusmani de moarte” (ex RRC pentru cei care inca se
Daca bvb-ul vi se pare anost, cercetati posibilitatile oferite de bursa din Sibiu.
Sau, de ce nu, piete externe (acolo exista alte reguli, pe care poate le vom
discuta in curand).
panica, ceilalti nu vor sa cumpere din acest motiv, asteptand pretul sa cada si
mai mult. Acest lucru s-a intamplat in perioada martie-mai 2005 in piata
bar: multi vor sa cumpere in euforie, ceilalti nu vor sa vanda, asteptand preturi
excese cu rezultate tragice – vezi piata americana, sau bune – vezi inca piata
de fiecare dintre noi daca dorim sa facem sau sa pierdem bani (privind in jur,
incep sa observ ca, inconstient, multi dintre cei in piata, doresc sa piarda prin
in piata din motivele X si Y, piata se intoarce contra noastra. Pentru cei care
au intrat recent in piata, nu suna cunoscut? Urmatorul pas? Pas teoretic sau
Au inregistrat pierderi virtuale de peste -30%. A durat mai mult de 6 luni pentru
fost puse in pericol. Ok, au fost pierderi “virtuale”, dar spre deosebire de alte
dezvoltat.
Imaginati-va un top in pretul unei actiuni. Apoi pretul scade si scade. Asteptam
nivel orizontal si isi petrece timpul acolo zile, saptamani. Dupa aceasta
“U”) sau scade (se formeaza un “4”). Rar cand dupa o cadere, pretul creste
zvacnire (posibilitatea unui “V” sau a jumatatii din stanga a “W”), cumpara,
pretul face un top, si coboara din nou (recent cu RRC, SIF-uri). Piata nu se
Am discutat mai sus despre faptul ca nu trebuie sa stii totul despre bursa. Daca
Restul depinde de fiecare dintre noi. In momentul in care citesc un ziar, un site
sfarsitul lunii trag linia si ma intreb “Au meritat cele 21 de ore? Ce am obtinut
consecinta isi petrec mai mult de 21 de ore / luna pentru informatie bursiera
In piata se observa des si fiecare dintre noi trece prin acest lucru, cel putin la
loveste fara mila (exemple recente: scaderea RRC pentri cei care detineau
piata este mult deasupra fiecaruia dintre noi este un adevar pe care oricine
important. Una din metodele obiective de a realiza cine conduce situatia este
emotii gen “actiunea X sau Y este foarte buna, pentru ca piata s-a inchis pe
plus” este o invitatie la esec. Cei care au studiat ingineria isi amintesc de
rezistenta materialelor unde daca un material este supus la efort peste limita
noi.
Graficul de mai jos indica BET-FI in trend ascendent acolo unde pretul se afla
Morala: nu putem anticipa durata unui trend, dar putem folosi analiza tehnica
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-nigerian2mar02,0,4441719,full.story?coll=la-
home-headlines
March 2, 2006
A renowned psychiatrist from UC Irvine was duped into squandering at least $1.3
million of his family's fortune on a Nigeria Internet scam, according to a lawsuit
recently filed by his son.
The son, also an Orange County doctor, said his father — Dr. Louis A. Gottschalk —
gave as much as $3 million over a 10-year period in response to an Internet plea
that promised the doctor a generous cut of a huge sum of cash trapped in African
bank accounts in exchange for money advances.
The court documents, filed last month in Orange County Superior Court, allege
Gottschalk even traveled to Africa to meet a shadowy figure known as "The General."
Gottschalk — who at 89 still works at the UCI campus medical plaza that bears his
name — said in court papers that the losses were caused by "some bad
investments."
Guy Gottschalk is asking a judge to remove his father as administrator of the $8-
million family partnership that was set up for tax purposes after the death of his
mother in 1993. A hearing is set for March 14.
The suit alleges that Louis Gottschalk destroyed bank records to cover up the
amount of his losses.
"While it seems unlikely, even ludicrous, that a highly educated doctor like
[Gottschalk] would fall prey to such an obvious con, that is exactly what happened,"
wrote Guy Gottschalk's attorney in court papers.
Louis Gottschalk and his attorney declined to comment, but they accuse Guy
Gottschalk in court documents of carrying out an unspecified "vendetta" against his
father. The son lost an earlier court effort to have a conservator oversee the family
partnership.
Fred W. Anderson, a Santa Ana lawyer who represents Guy Gottschalk, said neither
In court papers, Guy Gottschalk said his only motive was "to prevent Louis
Gottschalk from continuing to be victimized by these devious Nigerian scams."
The Nigerian Internet scam — known in some circles as 419 after the Nigerian
statute that outlaws fraud — is a long-running con that preys on people with e-mail
accounts. Though there are scores of variations, the con begins with an unsolicited
message from Nigeria or other African nation — usually from an alleged government
official, banker or businessman who needs to find a way to get millions of dollars out
of his country.
If the target of the sting agrees to set up a United States bank account and pay
transfer fees and other charges, he's told that he'll get a substantial portion of the
money once it is freed up.
Though many of the alleged Nigerian e-mails originate in other countries, Nigerian
government officials said more than $700 million relating to 419 crimes had been
seized in the last two years. Twelve people have been convicted in connection with
the scam during that time, officials said.
In 2005, 290 cases involving the Nigerian scam made up only 0.3% of the total
complaints of Internet fraud lodged with the government. The median reported loss
was $5,000.
But John Kane, research manager for the National White Collar Crime Center, said
people blinded by greed continue to wire their money overseas.
"Although this scam has been around for years," he said, "you continue to see some
people who forget the adage, 'If it's too good to be true, it probably is,' and fall prey
to a get-rich-quick mentality."
Anthony Pratkanis, a UC Santa Cruz scholar and author of "Weapons of Fraud," said
his studies show that cyberspace scam artists are adept at exploiting a victim's
weakness, whether it's diminished mental capacity, greed or compassion.
"Then there's a line that gets crossed when they send in the money and then they're
caught in a rationalization trap," Pratkanis said. "One way to convince yourself the
scam is for real is to send more money, ironically enough."
In the Gottschalk case, both the amount of the alleged losses and the reputation of
the victim set it apart.
In 1997, Gottschalk gave $1.5 million to the UCI College of Medicine. In exchange,
school officials named the medical plaza after him and his late wife.
According to Guy Gottschalk's account contained in court papers, his father began
responding to the solicitations from Nigeria in 1995. A year later, Louis Gottschalk
traveled to Africa to meet "The General" and other Nigerians "to show them that he
was sincere so he would get the money." Another court document said he also
traveled to Amsterdam to meet the Nigerians.
Soon afterward, his son said Gottschalk admitted to him that he had lost $300,000
and that FBI agents concluded that he had been a victim of an Internet scam.
Several family members said that Louis Gottschalk promised to never again give
money to Internet solicitors.
But his son said his father kept clandestinely wiring money to the Nigerians at least
until last fall.
Guy Gottschalk said that when he confronted his father in October, Louis Gottschalk
said, "Don't worry, everything will be all right on Thursday because I will be getting
$20 million."
The son said his father also told him he'd get the money this time because these
were "different Nigerians."
A few days later, a judge rejected Guy Gottschalk's attempt to put a conservator
over the family partnership. His father was evaluated by a court-appointed
investigator and determined to be competent, legal documents show.
Gottschalk's attorneys argue that the lawsuit is unnecessary because the family
partnership agreement allows for him to be removed by a majority vote of the
limited partners.
In a deposition, Guy Gottschalk said the person who held the swing vote refused to
take sides. It's unclear how many voting members there are.
Daca sunteti la inceput, situatiile explicate va vor ajuta sa mai eliminati din
Si nu uitati ca puteti distribui liber acest material in forma actuala catre toate
persoanele pe care le cunosteti, sau il puteti copia la Xerox pentru a-l face
Saptamana viitoare veti primi prin e-mail, urmatorul set continand alti 10 pasi
de evitat la bursa.
P.S. – Materialul pe care il primiti este primul de acest gen in Romania, adresat
maselor largi de investitori si traderi activi sau in formare. Este gratuit, dar
singurul “pret” pe care autorii il solicita din partea dumneavoastra este o
reactie in legatura cu utilitatea lui, continut, usurinta intelegerii. Pentru
aceasta va rugam sa trimiteti la una dintre adresele de mai sus un mesaj cu
parerea dumneavoastra. Ne va ajuta enorm in munca viitoare pentru a produce
alte materiale similare in cazul in care acesta este primit cu mare interes.