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Cobalt Market Update: Q1 2019 in Review ................................................................................................... 2
Cobalt Market Update: Q2 2019 in Review ................................................................................................... 8
Cobalt Market Update: Q3 2019 in Review .................................................................................................13
Eight Capital's 4 Battery Metals Stocks to Watch........................................................................................18
Read on to learn what happened in the cobalt market in Q1 2019, including the main
supply and demand dynamics and what market participants are expecting for the rest of
the year.
Aside from the uptick in prices seen in the first quarter of 2018, cobalt has been under
pressure since last year due to increased supply from the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC) and market volatility.
As a result of prices dropping from week to week, buyers have stayed on the sidelines,
with the number and size of spot deals surging, Roskill Director Jack Bedder told the
Investing News Network (INN).
“While the outlook for demand, especially from the battery sector, remains very positive,
sentiment remains depressed compared to one year ago,” he added.
Speaking about demand during Q1, CRU Group Senior Analyst George Heppel told INN
that the main surprise in the first quarter was on the end-use side.
According to the expert, Europe is key for setting the cobalt price, and much of the
demand in the region comes from chemical companies buying cobalt metal for
processing into cobalt salts for chemical applications.
“What we’ve seen in the first quarter has been an increasing trend of these companies
choosing to buy cheap cobalt salts from China as opposed to buying European metal,
which has exacerbated the downward trend,” Heppel said.
Also impacting demand during the first three months of the year was the announcement
of changes to China’s new energy vehicle subsidy policy, with incentives cut in average
by 50 percent. The Asian country accounts for more than half of all electric car sales in
the world.
“We may see a run on production by Chinese automakers until [the transition period
ends] to achieve the higher [subsidy] rate, and then will follow the market closely to see
the impact the lower subsidy rate has on Chinese EV demand,” Benchmark Mineral
Intelligence Senior Analyst Caspar Rawles explained.
On the supply side, during the first three months of the year, the sector saw a lot of
news about potential output disruptions.
In January, the DRC mines minister formally requested that top cobalt producer
Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) suspend construction of the ion exchange
plant at its Katanga mine.
The company was set to build the US$25 million ion exchange system to remove
uranium found in its product, which exceeded the acceptable levels for export through
the main African ports.
“The industry was expecting a wave of DRC cobalt hydroxide supply in 2019, which
hasn’t materialized so far, with the two key projects in focus being Katanga and ERG’s
RTR,” Rawles said. Cobalt hydroxide is the main raw material feed for the battery
industry.
In February, ERG suspended production at its Boss mine in the DRC and at its
Chambishi refinery in Zambia after the African country approved a new 5 percent duty
on cobalt concentrates imported into the country this year.
“[These announcements] highlight how flexible supply can be dependent on prices and
market conditions,” Rawles said.
In March, the DRC reported that it was banning cobalt concentrate exports — then
overturned the ban a day later.
“Thankfully, cobalt concentrates only make up a tiny portion of DRC cobalt exports so
this would not have a major impact on intermediate availability if permanent, but it is at
the very least symptomatic of the high political and legislative risk associated with
operating in the DRC,” Heppel said.
For now, the intermediates market is sufficiently well stocked and oversupplied, so
these announcements have not had a major effect on prices.
“But should disruption continue to be the theme of cobalt mining in Africa, this could
impact prices further down the line,” Heppel added.
Looking ahead, Roskill expects the market to roughly double in size over the next
decade, reaching approximately 260,000 tonnes in 2028, which is going to require lots
of new mine supply.
After the ramp up of the big projects in the DRC — Glencore’s Katanga, ERG’s RTR,
Chemaf’s Mutoshi, as well as the various Chinese projects — there’s uncertainty as to
where new supply will come from.
“We are tracking over 100 cobalt mine projects at the moment but outside Congo there
are not many that are too big nor many at advanced stages … The cobalt market will be
dominated by the DRC (mine) and China (refined) for the foreseeable,” Bedder added.
Bedder pointed out that this time last year, cobalt prices were above US$40 per pound.
Since then, oversupply, especially of hydroxide, set against sluggish demand (and
limited investor stockpiling), brought about a 12 month period of price decline.
“Prices stopped their declines recently and have tracked up a little. Destocking should
push prices up a little further but how far is hard to say,” Bedder added.
Roskill expects cobalt prices to recover over the course of 2019, and to remain volatile
over the coming years.
For CRU, prices performed worse than the firm originally expected in Q1, mainly as a
result of very aggressive trader selloffs, which pushed the market price below a stable
level.
“We largely anticipated a drop in the market in early 2019, as several key western metal
producers were left with very high stocks towards the end of last year and were forced
to slash offer prices in order to compete with cheaper Chinese material,” Heppel said.
The market is now beginning to bounce back as a result ― CRU’s 99.8 percent EU
cobalt metal spread rose from US$14 per pound on April 2 to US$15.70 on April 4, with
some deals heard over US$17.
“Further price gains are expected, although the days of average prices in the US$30s
and US$40s are probably over for the time being ― barring any major unforeseen
disruptions,” Heppel added.
For his part, Rawles said prices performed as expected in Q1 but dropped a little faster
and rose a little sooner than estimated.
“Whilst we have seen a slight recovery in cobalt prices in the final week of Q1 and going
into Q2, I don’t expect this rally to be long-lived,” he said.
“[That’s because, even though] the price increase will likely trigger some restocking by
the downstream in the near term, there are overhanging stocks of raw material feed in
Africa as well as some pent up supply from a number of projects [plus] excess capacity
in the supply chain.”
According to the expert, the price increases seem to have been driven more by trading
activity than any fundamental shift in demand.
As the second quarter of the year begins, there are key factors and announcements that
could impact the cobalt market.
Heppel said investors should keep an eye on mining announcements from the DRC, as
the market relies on the timely startup of several key projects in the African country to
remain balanced into the early 2020s.
“Any delays or disruption from such projects could cause lower availability of
feedstocks,” he said.
The expert also said cobalt-focused market watchers should pay attention to the
softening of the cobalt price combined with increased political and legislative risk in the
DRC, as this could scare off investors in the long term and, in return, accelerate the
next price cycle.
According to Rawles, another factor to keep in mind is the impact that the change in
subsidy policy in China has on EV production and demand over the space of the second
quarter, as this could play a significant role in cobalt demand.
Rawles also highlighted that, during Q1, the first major deal for raw material supply was
signed by a western original equipment manufacturer (OEM) other than Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA) — in this case, a lithium supply deal between Volkswagen (OTC
Pink:VLKAF,FWB:VOW) and Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460).
“This shows the mindset of the major OEMs, and we may start to see deals of this
nature announced in the cobalt market, particularly in the current oversupplied and low
price environment,” he added.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the
accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it
conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions
of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All
readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Read on to learn what happened in the cobalt market in Q2 2019, including the main
supply and demand dynamics and what market participants are expecting for the rest of
the year.
“Ultimately prices fell to the lowest levels seen in some products for a number of years,”
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Senior Analyst Caspar Rawles told the Investing News
Network (INN). “The Benchmark Minerals cobalt sulfate price fell on average by 26.4
percent over the space of the quarter.”
In addition, after China reduced its subsidy policy, which came into full effect on June
25, the Chinese are fearing a dip in EV demand — fueling skepticism about the ramp up
in production of EVs.
“I don’t think that we will see a significant recovery in prices in 2019 without a major
supply shock as the market continues to be in oversupply with the production ramp ups
happening in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),” Rawles added.
Since the start of 2019, the development of supply chains for raw materials outside of
China has been a main topic of discussion, with more and more battery plants either in
production, under construction or being planned outside of Asia and in particular in
Europe.
“These plants will need a supply of battery raw materials to feed them ― including
cobalt,” Rawles said. “Refining capacity will need to be developed in the region in order
to make the supply chain more efficient to help drive down costs.”
Mergers and acquisitions also took place in Q2, with Australian miner Jervois Mining
(ASX:JRV) and Idaho-focused eCobalt Solutions (TSX:ECS,OTCQX:ECSIF)
announcing plans to combine. The merger is facing opposition from some investors,
including majority shareholder First Cobalt (TSXV:FCC,OTCQX:FTSSF), which has
urged investors to vote against the transaction.
Looking ahead, the market might see further deals over the coming years, notably from
the downstream battery supply chain investing in cobalt projects to secure output.
“With prices so low it presents a good opportunity for companies to invest in raw
materials,” Rawles said. “Chinese companies are typically more aggressive on such
strategies, so we might see deals involving Chinese entities first, but the whole supply
chain is looking at the space.”
Another main topic of discussion in the market continued to be responsible sourcing and
how to deal with artisanal mining.
In April, the London Metal Exchange (LME) launched an initiative to ban or delist brands
that are not responsibly sourced by 2022. Under the new rules, all LME brands will, by
the end of 2020, be assessed based on guidelines set by the Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development.
Near the end of June, illegal mining in the DRC made news headlines again after
Kamoto Copper Company’s KOV mine collapse left dozens of miners dead in Southeast
Congo. Kamoto Copper Company is 75 percent owned by Glencore’s (LSE:GLEN,OTC
Pink:GLCNF) Katanga Mining (TSX:KAT,OTC Pink:KATFF).
Roskill estimates that 16,500 tonnes of cobalt was produced by artisanal miners in the
DRC last year — roughly 15 percent of the country’s cobalt output.
For Rawles, the most promising path for the industry to address responsible sourcing
appears to be the development of model artisanal mines like those being worked on by
the Better Cobalt Initiative. These mines offer, among other things, safe working
conditions, fair pay and legal mining concessions.
“It would not be correct to try and get rid of artisanal mining in the region as it offers a
much-needed source of income for thousands of families,” Rawles said. “It is important
for the supply chain to work with the artisanal mines and workers to make the
production a sustainable source of cobalt.”
In terms of demand during the quarter, the conversation surrounding the potential
reduction of cobalt in batteries continued to heat up.
Despite adoption being slower than expected, the move toward NCM 811, which
requires less cobalt, is happening, with China’s CATL (SZSE:300750) beginning mass
production of high-nickel cathodes in April and SK Innovation set to start production in
Q3 of this year.
“There are still risks in applying cobalt-free battery to EVs,” Professor Hu Guorong of
Central South University in China said at a conference. “We need to develop cobalt-free
battery in accordance to technology developments.”
Speaking with INN earlier this year, Jon Hykawy of Stormcrow Capital explained that
cobalt is not really an energy booster in these batteries; it’s a safety mechanism, and
that’s necessary.
The expert is bullish on cobalt in the long term, but supply is something to watch out for.
“For the next year to 18 months, I’d say we’re still in a situation where the supply is
definitely higher than the demand that goes along with it,” he added.
In terms of prices, Rawles expects to see further falls over the summer, although prices
are already at very low levels.
“There is a chance that prices will recover slightly in late Q3 and into Q4 as this is
generally a period of peak activity for the battery industry,” Rawles said. “A key factor
will be to see how significantly the subsidy reduction impacts sales of EVs in China.”
“This will of course impact raw material demand, but also, importantly, it will have a
heavy influence on sentiment within the industry — something which probably plays as
significant a role on pricing in the cobalt market as supply and demand,” he said.
Another catalyst to keep an eye on is any major changes in supply from the DRC, but
also refining, particularly in China.
“With prices as low as they are, we are starting to see it impact the supply side of the
market in various ways with production slowing or stopping altogether in some cases,”
Rawles added.
Editorial Disclosure: First Cobalt is a client of the Investing News Network. This
article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of
the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in
these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do
not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their
own due diligence.
Read on to learn what happened in the cobalt market in Q3, including the main supply
and demand dynamics and what market participants are expecting for the rest of the
year.
Mutanda is the world’s largest cobalt mine, with cobalt production reaching more than
27,000 tonnes last year. Its output makes up a fifth of global cobalt supply.
Up until August, the price of cobalt had declined more than 40 percent in 2019 due to a
surge in supply in the DRC, the world's largest producer. But the news from Glencore
sent cobalt on a rebound.
“I think prior to the closure many were expecting a period of depressed prices in the
cobalt market for the next 12 months or so,” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Senior
Analyst Caspar Rawles told the Investing News Network (INN). “The announcement
had a big impact on prices and producer sentiment, which has seen a reversal of
fortunes for the cobalt industry.”
Similarly, Fastmarkets Head of Base Metals and Battery Research William Adams told
INN that before the news he was expecting prices to continue to lose momentum in
2019.
“We were expecting prices to weaken as increased supply from the DRC that started in
2018 and was being ramped up this year added to the oversupply, but Glencore’s
announcement changed the outlook."
According to experts, prices for some cobalt products increased more than 30 percent
in the days after the announcement, with UBS (NYSE:UBS) forecasting that prices for
the battery metal could jump 60 percent to reach US$20 per pound in the next 18
months.
Cobalt hydroxide, the product produced at Mutanda, rose by nearly 40 percent in price
between August and September, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Cobalt
Price Assessment report.
“A rise like this was inevitable following the announcement as the mine is so large.
Mutanda accounted for about 20 percent of global cobalt production in 2018 — or
enough for about 2.5 million pure EVs in today's technology.”
However, at the current price, between 20 and 30 percent of global cobalt mine supply
is at risk of disappearing in 2020, said cobalt producer Eurasian Resources Group
(ERG) at the end of August. To regain lost supply in the short term, a sustained price of
US$15 is needed.
“In the long-term, US$20 and above is required to attract much-needed capital to the
industry,” ERG CEO Benedikt Sobotka said.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence believes that the supply deficit has been moved forward
by around 18 months from where analysts expected it to fall prior to the Glencore
announcement. That means the impact could hit the market as soon as the second half
of 2020.
“In the near term, other producers might be incentivized to increase production due to
improved pricing, but the reality is that the long-term outlook has always been very
positive for the cobalt market,” Rawles said. “Producers' plans will have been focused
on the longer-term outlook, which means they will have likely already been targeting
accelerated ramp-up strategies.”
For his part, Adams said that with Mutanda out of the equation for two years, the market
will be in a supply deficit in 2021.
“We mainly see output continuing to increase at RTR and Katanga, but also at Deziwa
and Hezong."
Other supply-side news during Q3 came from the London Metal Exchange (LME), which
earlier this year announced plans to ban metal tainted by human rights abuses in 2022,
including cobalt.
But in September, sources told Reuters that the exchange could postpone the deadline
by three years, giving producers more time to comply with guidelines and allowing the
exchange to rethink its approach.
The proposed rules would see all LME brands go through a red flag assessment, to be
based on guidance from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
“Responsible sourcing remains a key topic in the industry. Undertaking the correct due
diligence to ensure the material you source is sustainable is absolutely paramount to
automakers,” Rawles said.
In news from battery makers, Umicore (OTCP:UMICF, EBR:UMI) joined forces with LG
Chem (OTC Pink:LGCLF,KRX:003550) to supply nickel-cobalt-manganese cathode
material for battery production.
“This supply agreement will support LG Chem in meeting the growing demand for
rechargeable lithium-ion batteries as car manufacturers are expanding their offering of
longer-range electric vehicle models in several regions,” Umicore said in a press
release.
In May, Umicore signed a long-term deal with Glencore for cobalt supply from the
mining giant’s operations in the DRC, which Umicore said at the time meet its
responsible sourcing standards.
Additionally, at the very start of Q4, mining giant Glencore signed a new cobalt supply
deal with Chinese battery materials maker GEM (SZSE:002340).
Adams pointed out that there has been a pickup in supply deals in the cobalt space, and
it is interesting that they are not all with China.
“With more supply tied up in contract deals, those without supply contracts may well feel
more exposed, so may well look for deals, or decide to hold more stock,” he said.
“Given a more bullish outlook going forward and given how volatile cobalt prices can be,
now may well be the time that (original equipment manufacturers) look at hedging
cobalt.”
Looking over to demand, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts total cobalt demand
of 127,000 tonnes in 2019.
“We expect a pickup in demand in Q4 2019 and Q1 2020, and this might have a bigger
impact on cobalt prices now that the market is looking much more balanced,”
Fastmarkets’ Adams said.
For Rawles, one of the key factors to watch is the economic recovery in China and what
could happen with the trade dispute between the US and the Asian country. Any revised
EV policy incentivizing sales will also be key to pay attention to for the battery metals
sector.
Similarly, Adams said a resolution to the trade talks will be a main catalyst during Q4.
“There appears to be some slack in the supply side, given stocks have run up, so I think
the areas that could surprise on the upside revolve around demand — so either
Chinese stimulus, or a new US-China trade deal that revives demand for EVs in China,”
he said.
For the expert, more long-term contracts could also underpin a more bullish outlook for
cobalt.
“We expected a knee-jerk reaction after the Mutanda news and then for prices to settle
into a range, albeit well above the recent lows,” Adams said.
He added that, while Mutanda will cut global production significantly in 2020 and 2021, it
will be countered to a large extent by the continuing ramp ups at ERG’s RTR and at
Katanga.
“Also, considerable stocks have built up over the past two years, so we expect
producers will want to reduce those to more normal levels,” he added.
For Rawles, looking forward to the last quarter of the year there are two conflicting
forces at play. On the one hand, producers have been buoyed by the Mutanda closure
and are not willing to sell at the low prices that the market saw in Q2 2019.
“The outlook for the supply/demand balance in 2020 is looking far better than it has
previously, which has given producers a stronger hand in negations with consumers,”
he explained.
On the other hand, China, where the largest buyers and refiners of cobalt are located,
has seen floundering EV sales following the EV subsidy reduction, which came into
effect in June, as well as a weakening economy due to macroeconomic factors.
“This is likely to dampen the rising spirits in the cobalt supply chain,” Rawles added.
As a result, for Rawles, the cobalt space may still see some marginal price decreases
between now and the end of the year, but nothing like the low levels that were seen
earlier in 2019.
“Equally, as November and December are typically hot season for battery and EV
production in China — prices could rise well on rising demand,” he said. “Ultimately, I
think we are probably looking at a price of relative stability to where we are today,
assuming we have no major shock to the supply chain.”
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the
accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it
conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions
of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All
readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Despite a positive future outlook, battery metals stocks had a rough 2018. However,
there are some battery metals stocks worth watching this year for investors looking to
gain exposure to the EV boom, according to Eight Capital’s David Talbot and Joseph
Fars.
Here, the Investing News Network looks at Eight Capital’s battery metals top stocks.
Read on to learn more about each company. Stock price data was retrieved on January
29, 2019.
“An emerging diversified barometer of the entire EV sector, a portfolio of royalties and
battery metal streaming assets provide lower technical and financial risk than stand-
alone projects,” said Eight Capital.
Nemaska Lithium is engaged in the exploration and development of hard rock lithium
properties and the related processing of spodumene into lithium compounds.
The company’s wholly owned Whabouchi spodumene mine project in Quebec, Canada,
is estimated to be the second richest and largest lithium deposit in the world. The
spodumene concentrate produced at the Whabouchi mine will be processed at the
Shawinigan plant using a unique membrane electrolysis process for which the company
holds several patents.
Neo Lithium is rapidly advancing its newly discovered Tres Quebradas (3Q) project — a
high-grade lithium brine lake and salar complex in Latin America’s lithium triangle.
Speaking about the company, Eight Capital explained, “(This is a) large, high purity
brine led by veterans looking to deliver qualification samples in Q1/19.”
The company will operate its demonstration plant until 2020. During this period, it
expects the production of 2,000 tonnes of concentrated flake graphite to qualify its
products with North American and international clients.
“2019 should see Matawinie graphite project emerge from being a refractory story into
an EV developer story by incorporating value added spherical purified graphite to its
plan,” Eight Capital noted.