So what is flood? Flood is an overflow of water on land which is usually dry.

We all know what causes flood,

heavy rain for a period of time is one reason. When there is too much water, it may overflow beyond its normal
limits. This water then spreads over land. But we are interested on the occurrence of flood. Or the frequency of
flood. So what is frequency, frequency is the number of time that a given magnitude flood may occur in a given
time.

Floods in hydrology are any peak discharges, regardless of whether or not

the valley floor (if present) is inundated. The time-discharge or time-stage
characteristics of a given flood peak are graphed in the hydrograph, which tends to
assume a set form for a given station in response to a given input of water. The
peak flow produced by a single storm is superimposed on the base flow, the water
already in the channel and being supplied from the groundwater reservoir. Rise to
peak discharge is relatively swift and is absolutely swift in small basins and on
torrents where the duration of the momentary peak is also short. On very large
streams, by contrast, peak discharge can be sustained for lengths of days.
Recession from peak discharge is usually exponential.
Flood frequency analysis is the means by which flood discharge magnitude (Q) is related to the
probability of its being equaled or exceeded in any year or to its frequency of recurrence or
return period (T). The return period and recurrence interval (terms which are used
interchangeably) are used to indicate the long-term average interval between floods of a given
magnitude. The return period and exceedence probability are reciprocals.

For example, a 10-year return period corresponds to a flood that an exceedance

probability of 0.10 or a 10% chance that the flow will exceed in one year. The most
common misconception about return periods, for example, the 100-year return period
is that the flood of this magnitude will only occur once in 100 years. It is essential to
understand that if a flood with a 100-year return period occurs now, it does not mean
that another flood of this magnitude will not occur in the next 100 years. Return
period simply provides an estimate of the probability of exceedance of a given flow.
For example, if the 100-year return period flow value for the Mississippi River is 5000
m3/s, it means that there is a 1 in a 100 or 1% chance that this flow will be exceeded in
the river in a given year.

So by flood frequency analysis we can predict flow values corresponding to specific

return periods or probabilities along a river. In this way we can be prepared for the
next flooding.