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Janet Ceglowski
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BUSINESS REVIEW MARCH/APRIL 1998
wage differential between foreign workers the American economy with trade restrictions,
and U.S. workers in the same industry. That it is better to ease the burden on the minority
way competition would be confined to who of Americans who are adversely affected.
makes the best product, not who works for
the least amount of money. MAGNITUDE OF INTERNATIONAL
"Thus, if Calvin Klein wants to make DIFFERENCES IN WAGES AND BENEFITS
sweatshirts in Pakistan, his company would Labor costs in the industrialized countries
be charged a tariff or tax equal to the differ- are much higher than those in the developing
ence between the earnings of a Pakistani countries, although labor costs vary greatly
worker and a U.S. apparel worker.... within each group, too (Table 1; Figure 1). U.S.
"If this or some similar action is not taken, manufacturing wages are well below those of
the future is clear. Wages of
American workers will con-
tinue to slip, as well as their TABLE 1
standard of living." Indicators of Hourly Labor Costs
These arguments ignore a fun-
For Production Workers in
damental point: differences in Manufacturing
wage rates between countries Selected Countries, 1996a
largely reflect differences in labor
productivity (output per hour Labor Costs Labor Costs
worked). For example, wages (in $U.S.) (As a Percent
are low in India because produc- of U.S.
tivity is low. Thus, the costs of Labor Cost)
producing goods are not as dif-
ferent across countries as wage United States 17.74 100
rates suggest. Indeed, the United Canada 16.66 94
States as a whole benefits from France 19.34 109
international trade, irrespective Germany 31.87 180
of the wage levels of its trading Italy 18.08 102
partners, by specializing in what Japan 21.04 119
we do well and importing goods United Kingdom 14.19 80
that are most efficiently pro-
duced elsewhere. By increasing
efficiency, international trade, Hong Kong 5.14 29
like technological change, in- Korea 8.23 46
creases the size of the economic Mexico 1.50 8
pie available to the nation. Singapore 8.32 47
Granted, international trade Sri Lankab 0.48 3
does adversely affect some in-
dustries and individuals, espe- a
Labor costs in other countries are converted to U.S. dollars at the
cially in the short run, but there market exchange rate. Labor costs include wages and fringe benefits.
b
are more than offsetting benefits 1995
to the rest of the economy. Rather
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
than hobbling the efficiency of
Germany but above those of the United King- tage) and are therefore not an independent
dom. For medium-income countries like Ko- source of international competitiveness. Trade
rea, labor compensation levels in manufactur- patterns depend on comparative advantage:
ing have reached nearly half of those in the industry-by-industry differences in productiv-
United States, while low-income countries such ity across countries. We will first consider these
as Sri Lanka, India, and China have labor costs basic principles before turning to the evidence.
that are less than 5 percent of U.S. levels.1 The important distinction between compara-
tive and absolute advantage, first put forth by
THE PRINCIPLES OF COMPARATIVE David Ricardo in 1817, is best explained with a
AND ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGE simple example (Table 2). With no international
Popular discussions confuse the relation- trade, the United States demonstrates higher
ships between international trade, wages, and productivity than Mexico in both industries in
labor productivity. Wages are determined by the this example, but the productivity ratio is
overall productivity of labor (absolute advan- greater in computer chips (10 to 1) than in shirts
(2 to 1).
To produce more shirts, a country must sac-
1
Labor costs in manufacturing differ by industry; how-
rifice chip output and vice versa, given a lim-
ever, these industry variations are swamped by the overall ited supply of workers. The number of chips
differences in wages between countries. Therefore, it is not that must be given up to produce, say, one more
misleading to focus on manufacturing averages. shirt is what economists call the “opportunity
FIGURE 1
Hourly Labor Compensation
Of Production Workers in Manufacturing*
Selected Countries
*Labor costs in other countries are converted to U.S. dollars at the market exchange rate. Labor costs include
wages and fringe benefits.
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BUSINESS REVIEW MARCH/APRIL 1998
chips will expand while shirt production con- border because Mexican factories specialize in
tracts, resulting in corresponding shifts in la- assembly, which makes intensive use of un-
bor demand. The reverse happens in Mexico. skilled labor, while border regions in the United
There are two qualifications to this charac- States specialize in high-technology tasks such
terization of the benefits of trade. First, relocat- as production of components and product de-
ing workers between the shirt and chip indus- sign.4 This international division of labor fol-
tries may be difficult in the short run, resulting lows the principle of comparative advantage.
in some unemployment of former shirt work- The United States is likely to have an absolute
ers in the United States. Second, this kind of advantage in all stages of the production pro-
trade may reduce unskilled workers’ real wages cess, because American workers are, on aver-
in the United States, even after workers are re- age, more skilled and educated than those in
located, if the chip industry employs a higher developing countries, and infrastructure in the
ratio of skilled to unskilled workers than the United States is superior. But the United States’
shirt industry. In the United States, as chip pro- advantage in terms of efficiency is likely to be
duction expands and shirt production falls, the greatest in high-technology production pro-
demand for skilled labor rises, while the de- cesses, for which a highly skilled work force is
mand for unskilled labor declines. As discussed critical. The United States gains from the in-
later, however, the proper response to these dis- crease in efficiency resulting from the global
tribution effects is not to restrict trade but to division of labor, just as in the simple chip/shirt
ease the transition by retraining displaced example.5
workers. In fact, the chip/shirt example illustrates a
These days, international trade, which is of- key point: low wages most likely reflect low
ten conducted by multinational corporations, productivity. Furthermore, if low wages were
increasingly takes the form of trade in interme- all that mattered in international trade, coun-
diate products, but the basic gains from trade tries with rock-bottom labor costs, such as
are unaffected. American companies locate the Bangladesh, Bolivia, and Burundi, would be
simpler parts of their production processes in major exporters. Yet, popular concern often fo-
developing countries, while the more sophisti- cuses on countries such as Mexico and South
cated components are produced at home. For Korea—countries with wages well above those
example, 21 months after the North American in Africa and South Asia. Clearly, labor produc-
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) went into ef- tivity matters, too.
fect, the Key Tronic company, a large manufac- Some people worry that as low-wage coun-
turer of computer keyboards, laid off 277 work-
ers in Spokane, Washington, as it relocated
some of its assembly jobs to a plant in Cuidad 3
“NAFTA Tradeoff: Some Jobs Lost, Others Gained,”
Juarez, Mexico. But Key Tronic’s chief financial New York Times, October 7, 1995.
officer reported that employment in its Spokane 4
See the article by Gordon Hanson.
plants actually increased overall because many
of the components used in the keyboards are 5
Robert Feenstra and Gordon Hanson provide a theo-
made in Washington, and the lower costs of retical analysis of this form of comparative advantage. One
assembly in Mexico enabled the company to difference between their results and the textbook analysis
lower prices and increase sales.3 is that skilled labor reaps the gains from trade in both the
United States and the low-wage country. This result is con-
Other studies show that economic integra- sistent with some evidence that the gap between the wages
tion with Mexico has entailed a boom in manu- of skilled and unskilled workers is widening in develop-
facturing production in U.S. cities along the ing countries, just as it is in developed countries.
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BUSINESS REVIEW MARCH/APRIL 1998
FIGURE 2
Labor Productivity, Wages, and Unit Labor Costs
in Developing Countries, Relative to the United States
First, differences in wages sometimes reflect measures of labor costs and productivity are not
temporary exchange-rate movements, which always fully reliable and comparable, especially
may have little effect on long-term business for developing countries. Despite these quali-
decisions about the location of production. For fications, a fairly close correlation between la-
example, the appreciation of the dollar against
the mark and the yen in the early 1980s sharply
lowered German and Japanese wages measured 8
German unit labor costs in the mid-1990s reached lev-
in U.S. dollars (see Figure 1). The depreciation els nearly double those of the United States, as German
of the dollar in the late 1980s and early 1990s, labor compensation rose well above U.S. wages and Ger-
however, led to a large increase in German and man productivity remained at about 80 percent of the U.S.
Japanese wages expressed in U.S. dollars.8 Sec- level. Germany’s high unemployment may reflect, in part,
ond, as noted above, some differences in unit the relatively high level of German labor costs. The depre-
ciation of the mark in 1996-97 has partially restored
labor costs may be offset by nonlabor costs, so Germany’s cost competitiveness. A similar description ap-
low unit labor costs do not necessarily imply a plies to recent Japanese unit labor costs, but to a lesser ex-
competitive advantage. Third, the available tent.
9
BUSINESS REVIEW MARCH/APRIL 1998
bor costs and labor productivity is observed lar value of Mexican wages (Figure 4). Mexican
across countries. wages recovered relative to productivity after
Wages and labor productivity also move to- 1986, but fell back after 1994. This decline in
gether over time for individual countries. For Mexican wages and unit labor costs in 1994-95
example, Korea experienced both high wage and the subsequent shift of the Mexican trade
growth and high productivity growth in manu- balance from deficit to surplus are often inap-
facturing over 1970-95, compared with the propriately cited by U.S. opponents of the North
United States (Figure 3). In 1970, Korean wages American Free Trade Agreement as vindication
were 8 percent of U.S. wages, while Korean pro- of their views that NAFTA would create a “large
ductivity was 14 percent of U.S. productivity. sucking sound” of jobs being siphoned off to
By 1995, Korean productivity had reached 69 Mexico. As in the early 1980s, the drop in Mexi-
percent of the U.S. level, while Korean wages can wages after 1994 reflects the collapse of the
grew to 48 percent of American wages. Note peso and deep recession in Mexico. Indeed,
that U.S. manufacturing productivity and manufacturing employment in Mexico dropped
wages grew steadily over this period, so Fig- nearly 10 percent in 1995. As the Mexican
ure 3 indicates very strong growth in Korean economy recovers from the crisis, its wages and
wages and productivity. Korean workers have unit labor costs are likely to increase, as they
greatly benefited from Korea’s phenomenal did from 1987 to 1991.
economic growth. The volume of trade is also inconsistent with
In Mexico, wages and productivity moved fears about the competitiveness of low-wage
closely together until the outbreak of the debt countries (Table 3). Many developing countries’
crisis in 1982. This crisis led to policies of ex- exports of manufactures to the industrial coun-
treme austerity and steep depreciation of the tries have increased rapidly, but the majority
peso to enable Mexico to service its foreign debt of these developing countries continue to run
and, in turn, caused a steep decline in the dol- trade deficits in manufactures, as their imports
FIGURE 3 FIGURE 4
Wages and Labor Productivity, Wages and Labor Productivity,
Expressed as a Ratio of U.S. Expressed as a Ratio of U.S.
Wages and Productivity Wages and Productivity
KOREA MEXICO
TABLE 3
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BUSINESS REVIEW MARCH/APRIL 1998
have grown nearly as much. For many of these cials [in Louisville, Kentucky] who help former
developing countries, two-way manufacturing prisoners get jobs say companies now reject
trade with the industrial countries is now quite fewer convicted felons.”9
large in relation to their gross domestic prod- Therefore, while the U.S. trade deficits do
uct (Brazil and India are exceptions). Trade in displace some workers, any associated job
manufactures is, on the whole, much more im- losses have been more than offset by overall job
portant for the developing countries than for creation. In fact, the causation runs in the re-
the developed countries, as measured by share verse direction: the strength of the U.S.
of respective GDP. economy, which manifests itself in employment
In summary, wage differences do mostly re- growth, is an important cause of the overall U.S.
flect productivity differences. Macroeconomic trade deficit, since imports rise with incomes.
shocks and exchange-rate fluctuations, how- Recessions in Japan, Europe, and Latin
ever, can entail large discrepancies for several America, meanwhile, have held down U.S. ex-
years. ports.
Even in manufacturing, international trade
INTERNATIONAL TRADE has had a secondary role in affecting employ-
AND THE U.S. LABOR MARKET ment trends. In 1994, manufacturing accounted
U.S. Employment Performance. Critics ar- for 16 percent of all U.S. jobs, down from 26
gue that the overall U.S. trade deficit and the percent in 1970. A recent study found that the
deficits with particular developing countries U.S. trade deficit accounted for only one tenth
such as China and Mexico reduce the number of this decline; the remainder is mostly due to
of jobs in the United States. As evidence, they the difference in productivity growth between
often cite the decline of manufacturing employ- manufacturing and the service sector.10 As
ment. They claim that other countries, such as manufacturing productivity increases, fewer
Japan and those in Western Europe, have less workers are needed to produce a rising volume
open markets and consequently do not run of output, and the released workers shift to the
trade deficits like the United States. But these service sector. Much the same occurred in agri-
arguments ignore the fact that overall U.S. em- culture earlier in the century. Technological
ployment growth has been extraordinarily im- change and capital investment lowered the
pressive, far outpacing that of Europe and Ja- share of employment in agriculture from 44
pan. Indeed, there has been much discussion percent in 1900 to 3 percent today. This process
in these countries about how to emulate U.S. was undoubtedly painful for many displaced
employment performance. In 1997, the U.S. workers, but few today would consider revers-
unemployment rate fell below 5 percent, its ing the clock on the gains in standard-of-living
lowest level since the early 1970s. In recent afforded by the growth in agricultural produc-
years, the labor force and employment have tivity.
increased more rapidly than the population of Nor is it true that the overall “quality” of
working age: 4 million workers were added in jobs has declined as the quantity has increased.
1996 and the first half of 1997 alone. The New
York Times reported recently that the demand
for labor is so strong that “companies are re-
9
cruiting among those ignored in the past: moth- “Jobs Opening Faster Than They Can Be Filled,” New
York Times, July 10, 1997.
ers at home with their children, older men who
had retired or been laid off, students, immi- 10
See the article by Robert Rowthorn and Ramana
grants, people with criminal records. State offi- Ramaswamy.
Careful studies show a mixed picture. Job use of skilled labor and it imports goods cre-
growth has been strong in high-paying as well ated largely by unskilled labor. Such trade may
as low-paying occupations, as industries have cause not just a widening in the wage gap be-
shifted the occupational mix of their employ- tween skilled and unskilled labor but also an
ees. Between 1983 and 1994, jobs in manage- absolute decline in the real income of unskilled
rial, professional, and technical occupations workers. Also, the widening wage inequality
grew more rapidly than overall U.S. employ- has coincided with an increase in international
ment.11 Once again, this does not deny that trade with low-wage countries, suggesting a
some workers have suffered because of job dis- possible connection.
location and wage declines, sometimes caused Although there may be a connection between
by competition from imports. The overall per- increased trade and income inequality, many
formance of the labor market, however, is at studies conclude that international trade with
variance with the popular view that interna- low-wage countries has played, at most, a sec-
tional trade is devastating American labor. ondary role in increasing income inequality. As
Wage Inequality. Increased inequality of a recent survey of the literature concludes,
wages has been one of the most salient features “Nearly all of this research finds only a modest
of the American labor market in recent decades. effect of international trade on wages and in-
While average family income has increased, the come inequality.”13 The small effect of trade on
gap between higher-paid and lower-paid work- wage inequality in the United States is not so
ers has widened sharply.12 Much of the increase surprising when one considers the small size
in wage inequality reflects a greater demand of such trade. Although imports of manufac-
for skilled labor, as evidenced by a large increase tured goods from developing countries have
in the wages of college graduates relative to the expanded rapidly, in 1995 they still amounted
wages of workers without a college education. to only 3 to 4 percent of U.S. gross domestic
While increased wage inequality is not neces- product (GDP) and 7 percent of the value of
sarily a bad thing in itself, as it may reflect a manufacturing production. More than half of
more competitive and discerning labor market, U.S. imports of manufactured goods still come
the plight of those at the lower end of the in- from other industrialized countries, some of
come distribution is a source of concern. The which have higher wages than the United States
question here is the role international trade is (see Table 1). Most economists think that tech-
playing. nological change, which has increased demand
As suggested by the Mexico shirt/ U.S. com- for workers with higher skills, is mainly respon-
puter chip trade example, international trade sible for the rise in the demand for skilled rather
with poor countries can be expected to increase than unskilled labor and the resulting increase
the relative demand for skilled labor in the in wage inequality. Many economists believe
United States, since the United States expands that advances in information technology, such
production in industries that make intensive as computers and telecommunications, are at
the heart of the changes affecting the U.S.
economy.
In the case of technological change, the ben-
11
See the study published by the Committee on Eco- efits to the overall standard of living outweigh
nomic Development.
12
See Peter Gottschalk’s article for a summary of the facts
13
and other articles in the same issue of the Journal of Eco- See the article by Matthew Slaughter and Phillip
nomic Perspectives for further discussion. Swagel.
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BUSINESS REVIEW MARCH/APRIL 1998
the associated dislocations to those whose skills reap the gains from trade and share them more
become obsolete. The economic effects of inter- equally.
national trade are similar: trade and new tech-
nology both raise the general standard of liv- CONCLUSIONS
ing while hurting those whose occupational Trade between the United States and low-
skills are devalued. Why accept technological wage countries benefits most people in both
change while restricting trade? Many people places, irrespective of wage differences. Differ-
recognize that new technology entails a shift in ences in wages largely reflect differences in la-
the composition of jobs rather than a net loss of bor productivity and are not a form of unfair
jobs but fail to understand that the same is true competition. Developing countries tend to spe-
for international trade. But, as discussed previ- cialize in products created mostly by unskilled
ously, by specializing according to compara- labor while the United States specializes in more
tive advantage, countries increase their produc- sophisticated goods. Some unskilled workers
tive efficiency with little net effect on job cre- in the United States are adversely affected by
ation. such trade, although factors other than trade
Although technological change is far more are more important in accounting for increases
important than international trade as a cause in wage inequality. In any event, restricting
of wage inequality, trade does adversely affect trade is an inferior solution—it is better to help
some workers. Rather than restrict trade, the displaced workers adjust rather than deny so-
United States should offer a social safety net ciety the gains from specialization according to
and retraining, which are better ways of help- comparative advantage.
ing displaced workers. That way, society can
REFERENCES
Barlett, Donald L., and James B. Steele. America: Who Stole the Dream? Kansas City: Andrews and
McNeel, 1996. Reprinted from Philadelphia Inquirer series, September 1996.
Committee on Economic Development. American Workers and Economic Change. CED: Washington,
1996.
Feenstra, Robert C., and Gordon H. Hanson. “Foreign Investment, Outsourcing and Relative Wages,”
in Robert C. Feenstra and Gene M. Grossman, eds., Political Economy of Trade Policy: Essays in
Honor of Jagdish Bhagwati. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1995.
Golub, Stephen S. “Comparative and Absolute Advantage in the Asia-Pacific Region,” Pacific Basin
Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, No. PB95-09, October 1995.
Gottschalk, Peter. “Inequality, Income Growth, and Mobility: The Basic Facts,” Journal of Economic
Perspectives 11, Spring 1997.
Hanson, Gordon H. “Economic Integration, Intraindustry Trade, and Frontier Regions,” European
Economic Review 40, April 1996.
Rowthorn, Robert, and Ramana Ramaswamy. “Deindustrialization: Causes and Implications,” IMF
Working Paper WP97/42, April 1997, forthcoming in International Monetary Fund Staff Studies for
the World Economic Outlook.
Slaughter, Matthew J., and Phillip Swagel. “The Effect of Globalization on Wages in the Advanced
Economies,” IMF Working Paper WP97/43, April 1997, forthcoming in International Monetary
Fund Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook.
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