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Online Damping Ratio Prediction Using Locally Weighted Linear Regression

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1954
Online Damping Ratio Prediction Using Locally
Weighted Linear Regression
Junbo Zhang, Member, IEEE, C. Y. Chung, Senior Member, IEEE, and Yingduo Han, Senior Member, IEEE
Abstract—In this study, a locally weighted linear regression
(LWLR) method is proposed to predict damping ratio of a dom-
inant mode online. The LWLR method, which is nonparametric
and data-oriented, is essentially proposed for nonlinear data
fitting; therefore, it can track the nonlinear power system oper-
ations and help damping ratio prediction in real power systems,
which is hardly achieved by the conventional linear regression.
To successfully implement this method, the measurement of
weighting value and the choice of weighting function as well as its
parameter setting, related to prediction accuracy and numerical
conditions, are extensively discussed. Simulations are carried out
in a two-area four-machine system and a large complex system,
China Southern Grid. Both results validate the effectiveness of the
proposed method.
Index Terms—Locally weighted linear regression (LWLR), mode
estimation, online damping ratio prediction, wide-area measure-
ment system (WAMS).
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE damping ratio of a dominant and consistently shifting
mode is extremely important to online redispatching, op-
erations planning, stability warning, and damping control-re-
lated issues [1]–[6]. Conventionally, the mode information is
calculated with the linear model of a power system [7], [8].
However, this method is not practical in online applications be-
cause the system model changes on different operating points
and, therefore, with the same dynamic model, the mode results
are with large biases [9].
To alleviate the needs of the power system's offline model,
many research works have been presented to estimate damping
ratio of a domain mode by using data acquired from wide-area
measurement system (WAMS) [10]–[15]. These works focus
on damping ratio estimation under current operating conditions
of power systems. However, the damping ratio prediction
issue (focused on estimation of damping ratio of the operating
scenarios in the future, which may be quite different from
Manuscript received October 08, 2014; revised May 08, 2015; accepted June
09, 2015. Date of publication July 13, 2015; date of current version April 15,
2016. This work was supported in part by the China Postdoctoral Science Foun-
dation(2014M550064) and the University of Saskatchewan. Paper no. TPWRS-
01383-2014.
J. Zhang is with the School of Electric Power, South China University
of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China, and also with the Department
of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China (e-mail:
zhangjb04@gmail.com).
C. Y. Chung is with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A9 Canada. (e-mail: c.y.
chung@usask.ca).
Y. Han is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua Univer-
sity, Beijing 100084, China. (e-mail: hanyd@mail.thu.edu.cn).
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2448104
0885-8950 © 2015 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 31, NO. 3, MAY 2016
the present operating condition), which is quite critical to
online re-dispatching and operations planning issues, is rarely
discussed.
With the development of digital data bases in power systems,
huge amounts of WAMS data have been collected. Among such
big data, the operating power flow (collected by WAMS) and the
respective damping ratio of a domain mode (estimated) have the
potential for damping ratio prediction, because they are related
to each other through the dynamic model of the respective op-
erational points [1].
A linear regression method was first proposed in [16] to pre-
dict the damping ratio of system modes with modal sensitivity
identification as an intermediate step. After that, intelligent
learning methods and modified linear regression methods were
used to identify the intermediate modal sensitivity [17], [18].
These works triggered the possibility of damping ratio pre-
diction through data analysis only, although they assumed the
modal sensitivity to be constant, which was inconsistent with
real power systems. In fact, the damping ratio of a dominant
mode is decided by the specific nonlinear power system model.
Therefore, the modal sensitivity to different system operating
conditions are nonlinear also, which renders the linear regres-
sion based methods inapplicable for prediction.
To realize online damping ratio prediction in actual power
systems, this study reformulates the issue into a data analysis
problem. Consequently, a machine learning algorithm, called
locally weighted linear regression (LWLR) [19]–[21], is em-
ployed. In this algorithm, the local modal sensitivity (LMS) of
the system on a specified operating point is identified using a
space distant weighting to the training data, which fits the non-
linear property of modal sensitivity and results in more accu-
rate damping ratio prediction. Further, practical issues such as
choice of weighting functions as well as the parameters' tuning
are extensively discussed.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows.
Section II reviews the online damping ratio prediction with
linear regression. Section III reformulates the damping ratio
prediction into a data analysis issue. Section IV introduces
LWLR and its parameter setting. Section V is a case study
in a two-area four-machine system. Section VI validates the
proposed method in a large complex system, China Southern
Grid. Section VII concludes the paper.
II. ONLINE DAMPING RATIO PREDICTION WITH LINEAR
REGRESSION
The linear regression-based online damping ratio prediction
consists of two parts: the sensitivity theory and the online pre-
diction algorithm. They are reviewed as follows.
ZHANG et al.: ONLINE DAMPING RATIO PREDICTION USING LOCALLY WEIGHTED LINEAR REGRESSION 1955

A. Sensitivity Theory
The behavior of a power system around an equilibrium point
can be described by the following state equations:

(1)
(2)

where is the state vector, is the output vector, is the input

vector, represents the system operating condition (generation,
load, transmission power flow, etc.), and through are state
matrices with respect to . Damping ratio of a dominant mode Fig. 1. Explication of damping ratio prediction.
in this system can be calculated by

(3) Then, with linear regression, the least square solution of

in (7) can be easily calculated as
where is the th eigenvalue of and
are the damping ratio, real part, and imaginary part of ,
respectively. (9)
Since is related to through and , it fits the following
incremental equation: As long as has full row rank, can be easily esti-
mated and, hence, (5) is realized.
(4)
C. Discussion
where is the sensitivity vector with respect to damping The linear regression sensitivity identification method cannot
ratio of mode at the operating condition represents the in- accurately track the system operating point because all of the
cremental value from the operating condition and represents training data from different system operating points is equally
the error. treated while the corresponding power system linear models
B. Online Damping Ratio Prediction Algorithm may be quite different.
In the theory of machine learning, (7) and (9) are, in fact,
Assume damping ratio of mode under an original operating
a special kind of data fitting algorithm [21]. Also, on the large
point is , then under an adjacent operating point , it
canvas of regression algorithms, the LWLR, which is essentially
can be estimated as
proposed for nonlinear data fitting, seems more appropriate to
(5) damping ratio prediction. To motivate this thought, in the fol-
lowing sections, the damping ratio prediction is first reformu-
where “” represents the estimation value, is calculated in lated into a data analysis problem which fits the application of
(4), and is identified from ambient signals [16]. Therefore, LWLR; then, LWLR is applied to solve this problem.
to realize (5) in practice, the key is to find the sensitivity vector
on the operating point . III. REFORMULATION OF DAMPING RATIO PREDICTION
Assume there are different operating points According to (1)–(3), the damping ratio of a dominant mode
and their corresponding mode damping is determined by the th eigenvalue of the state matrix . In real
ratio . Then, according to (4), the following power systems, is formulated by physical laws. As long as the
equation holds: grid topology is steady, the value of is determined by physical
parameters and system operating conditions [1]. Therefore, in
the case of a developed power grid whose grid topology and
.. .. .. physical parameters are rarely changed, it is reasonable that the
. . . (6)
following link holds approximately:

(10)
Equation (6) can be rewritten in matrices form as
In other words, given a value of , one can calculate the cor-
responding uniquely. Therefore, the link in (10) can be refor-
(7) mulated as
with (11)

where is a nonlinear function with input and output .

.. .. The above characteristic is shown in Fig. 1: given different
.. (8)
. . . , representing different operating points,
one can calculate the corresponding with function .
1956 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 31, NO. 3, MAY 2016

The damping ratio prediction problem is then reformulated

as: given a specific , how to estimate the corresponding
using .
A direct solution to the above problem is: estimate (the
yellow solid curve in Fig. 1) with training samples (the round
dot in Fig. 1), then calculate (the star point in Fig. 1) by
putting into the estimated . Clearly, the function is very
high order, and the above solution is not practical.
An alternate method is using a linear straight line (the blue
dotted line) to represent the characteristics of around the equi-
librium point . Then is estimated as the value of the
straight line at . Clearly, the straight line represents the linear
relationship between and ; to estimate with minimum
bias, the straight line should get as close as possible to the tan- Fig. 2. Properties of different weighting functions with and
.
gent line of at . A regression method can be applied to
solve the above issue, and it is more appropriate that the samples
that are closer to are more important than others and there- The cost function is defined as:
fore, they should be assigned higher weights. So far, the problem
becomes how to measure the distance between the training sam-
ples and and how to calculate the weights in the regression
algorithm. Both issues can be solved by the following LWLR (14)
algorithm.
Differentiate with respect to ; the value of should
IV. LWLR AND ONLINE LMS IDENTIFICATION minimize to guarantee
Here, the theory of LWLR is introduced; then the distance
(15)
and the weighting functions of different training samples are
discussed. Therefore, the solution to LWLR is
A. Locally Weighted Linear Regression (16)
In order to simplify the description, we redefine the following
notations. B. Distance Between Observations
: number of training samples (which in practice repre-
sents the number of different operating points); For LWLR, the weight age given to an observation to
: input vector with variables (with predict the value of another observation should be inversely
and to the system operating conditions in ); proportional to the distance between and , which guar-
: output variable ; antees that samples that are closer to are given more weight
The value of corresponds to the th training than the others. Theoretically, many kinds of distances can be
sample (the th dot in Fig. 1). used. For the power system function defined in the Hilbert
The predicted output for a given input vector using a hypoth- space, it is more appropriate to use the “Euler Distance,” i.e.,
esis is defined as follows: 2-Norm of defined in the following equation:

(17)
(12)

where is a coefficient vector (with the C. Weighting Function

intercept of the straight line in Fig. 1 and to equal to the With (17), many weighting functions can be used. To save
modal sensitivity ). space, only three popularly employed weighting functions are
In the LWLR, should minimize the square of the weighted investigated in this study (Fig. 2). Readers are referred to [20]
error between the predicted value and the actual output and [21] for more reviews.
for all of the values in a training process. Let be the 1) Uniform weighting function:
weight age given to the th training set, then the goal becomes The uniform weighting function in
if
(13) (18)
otherwise
indicates any observation within the limit distance
where is a diagonal matrix, is the is given equal importance, while observations outside of
input matrix, is the output vector. are given no weight age [20].
ZHANG et al.: ONLINE DAMPING RATIO PREDICTION USING LOCALLY WEIGHTED LINEAR REGRESSION
Fig. 3. Two-area four-machine system.
TABLE I
ELECTROMECHANICAL MODES IN THE ORIGINAL SYSTEM
2) Tri-cube function:
The Tri-cube function in
if (19)
otherwise
has the maximum value at zero and decays smoothly as
the distance increases [20]. Compared with the uniform
weighting function, it has a continuous first and second
derivative and provides different weight ages to the obser-
vations within . B. Testing With Case 1
3) Gaussian function:
The Gaussian function in
(20)
is a smooth function with maximum value at zero and de-
cays smoothly as the distance increases [20]. Compared
with the Tri-cube function, the Gaussian function has an
infinite extent. in (20) controls the width of the function.
A higher value of leads to a wider function.
The weighting function should be chosen carefully. On the
one hand, it should reveal the local property of the training sam-
ples; on the other hand, it should prevent the solution of (16)
from rank deficiency problem.
V. CASE STUDY IN A TWO-AREA FOUR-MACHINE SYSTEM
Here, a two-area four-machine system in Fig. 3 is used to val-
idate the proposed approach. Due to space limitations, readers
are referred to [10]–[15] for mode estimation algorithms and
[22] for more system settings.
A. Simulation Background
Three electromechanical modes of the system are shown in
Table I. The first is the inter-area mode, with Generators 1 and
2 of Area 1 swinging against Generators 3 and 4 of Area 2.
The other two are local modes. Local mode 1 is the oscillation
between Generators 1 and 2 in Area 1 and local mode 2 is the
oscillation between Generators 3 and 4 in Area 2.
1957
Then we investigate damping ratio prediction of the interarea
mode under different system operating conditions. To illustrate
properties of LWLR clearly, two kinds of data are generated in
the following. Because of space constraints, only a brief descrip-
tion is provided.
Case 1: 121 different operating modes are generated, with
nominal power of Generator 1 varied from 300 MW to 300
MW (compared with the defaulted one) in steps of 5 MW. Since
loads are maintained, nominal power of Generator 4 is modi-
fied to keep the total generation balanced. For each operating
condition, the interarea mode is estimated with ambient signal
analysis and then the training set is formulated. The regression
model is established with one input variable (nominal power of
Generator 1), one output variable (damping ratio of the interarea
mode) and 121 training sets.
Case 2: 500 different operating modes are generated, with ac-
tive power of Generators 1 to 3 and two loads varying within
300 MW compared with the initial operating point, which is
about % of capacity. For each operating condition, Gener-
ator 4 is modified to keep the total generation almost unchanged.
The interarea mode is estimated with ambient signal analysis.
The power flow is calculated and the training set is formulated.
The regression model is established with five independent input
variables (active power of Generators 1 to 3 and two loads), one
output variable (damping ratio of the interarea mode), and 500
training sets.
In the following parts, we use Case 1 for a simple testing and
Case 2 for a complex damping ratio prediction.
LWLR is employed to train data in Case 1. Three weighting
functions in (18)–(20) are tested with 10 (MW) and
5 (MW). The corresponding LMS, i.e., local damping ratio
sensitivity of the interarea mode with respect to active power of
Generator 1, is identified as and compared with the model
based damping ratio sensitivity in Fig. 4. Then, to illustrate the
advantages of LWLR, the linear regression method is used as
a comparison. The linear regression model in (7) is established
and the damping ratio sensitivity of the interarea mode with re-
spect to active power of Generator 1 is identified using (9). The
result is also shown in Fig. 4.
Fig. 4 illustrates the following.
1) The LMS varies significantly as the nominal power of Gen-
erator 1 increases from 300 MW to 300 MW. Its sign
even changes from negative to positive. Since LMS reflects
the second derivative of power systems' characteristic, it
shows strong nonlinear quality of this system.
2) With linear regression method, all of the training samples
from different system operating points are equally treated
while the result cannot track the system operating point.
3) With LWLR, three identified LMSs are exactly the same
as the model based one. It shows LWLR has the ability to
track LMS in nonlinear power systems.
The regressed damping ratio of interarea mode is compared
with the true value in Fig. 5. Damping ratio residues calculated
in
(21)
1958 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 31, NO. 3, MAY 2016

Fig. 6. Regression residues with LR and LWLR ( and ).

Fig. 4. Damping ratio sensitivity identification with LR and LWLR
and .

Fig. 7. Enlarged from Fig. 6.

Fig. 5. Damping ratio regressions with LR and LWLR ( and
).

are shown in Figs. 6 and 7. These results lead to the following

conclusions.
1) The regressed damping ratio using linear regression
method is hardly satisfied. The residues are significantly
larger than the LWLR method.
2) The regressed damping ratio using LWLR is perfect. The
damping ratio residue is very small except the ones on
the edge (the details are shown in Fig. 7, and they are
much smaller than the ones with linear regression method
in Fig. 6), which demonstrates excellent performance of Fig. 8. Predicted damping ratio residues with LR and LWLR ( and
), outliers are bad results caused by rank deficiency.
LWLR.
3) Comparing the three weighting functions in Fig. 7 (which
is enlarged from Fig. 6), the best is the Gaussian function, These results lead us to the following conclusions.
while the inferior one is Tri-cube function. 1) The linear regression method will lead to large bias in
4) Since the true damping ratio values changes consistently damping ratio prediction and is not able to track nonlinear
and smoothly, no rank deficiency problem occurs even with property of different power system operating conditions.
very small and values. Therefore, to save space and focus on the LWLR method,
we do not provide further investigation of linear regression
A damping ratio prediction test is then carried out. Sev-
method in the following study.
enty-seven of the 121 training sets are randomly removed.
2) The LWLR method in general has smaller predicted
Damping ratio at these missing operating points are predicted damping ratio residues compared to the linear regression
with linear regression method and LWLR trained by the re- method; while with different weighting functions, LWLR
maining 44 points. The predicted damping ratio residues are could perform differently.
shown in Figs. 8 and 9 ( and ). Then, with 3) A small value of uniform weighting function and
and , the predicted damping ratio residues Tri-cube function is prone to bad numerical conditions
using LWLR are as shown in Fig. 10. [such as rank deficiency in solving (16)] due to the limited
ZHANG et al.: ONLINE DAMPING RATIO PREDICTION USING LOCALLY WEIGHTED LINEAR REGRESSION
Fig. 9. Enlarged from Fig. 8.
Fig. 10. Predicted residues with LWLR ( and ).
weighting extent, and this may lead to failures in damping
ratio prediction (outliers in Figs. 8 and 9). With larger
, the problem is relieved significantly (Fig. 10).
4) For the Gaussian function with infinite weighting extent,
it usually works well and is not affected by the numer-
ical condition problem. Therefore, its performance is more
stable, and it should provide better sensitivities.
5) With increased and , the prediction accuracy de-
creases. This is the price of prediction accuracy (local prop-
erty) to a good numerical condition.
C. Damping Ratio Prediction in Case 2
In this part, LWLR is further investigated with data in Case 2.
With five inputs, the distance between two different operating
modes calculated by (17) is scaled by compared to the one
with single input (Norm-2 distance). Hence, values of and
are further investigated.
First, with and , the damping ratio re-
gression is as shown in Fig. 11.
Thus, with increased inputs, numerical conditions of uniform
weighting function and Tri-cube function decrease significantly:
many observations do not get regressed. On the other hand, the
Gaussian function still gets good results.
Then, and are increased, and the same test is carried
out. The success rates of the three weighting functions are sum-
marized in Table II.
1959
Fig. 11. Damping ratio regressions with LWLR ( and ).
TABLE II
REGRESSION WITH DIFFERENT WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS
Fig. 12. Regressed residues with LWLR ( and ).
Clearly, with increased, the success rate of uniform
weighting function and Tri-cube function increased (numerical
condition is improved).
With numerical conditions satisfied, damping ratio regression
residues of three weighting functions are compared in Fig. 12.
This demonstrates that the Gaussian function has very small
residues compared to the other two functions. It indicates a huge
price has been paid by the uniform weighting function and Tri-
cube function for improved numerical conditions.
Finally, the damping ratio prediction test is carried out. Two
hundred fifty out of the 500 training sets are randomly removed.
The damping ratio at these missing operating points are pre-
dicted with LWLR trained by the remaining 250 points. Dif-
ferent and are tested for improved numerical conditions.
The success rate of the three weighting functions are summa-
rized in Table III. The predicted damping ratio residues with
satisfied numerical conditions are compared in Fig. 13.
These results lead us to the following conclusions.
1) The same as the former test, the Gaussian function over-
comes the numerical problems easily, compared with the
other two weighting functions.
1960
Fig. 13. Predicted residues with different weighting windows.
TABLE III
PREDICTION WITH DIFFERENT WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS
2) Without paying a local property price for a satisfied nu-
merical condition, Gaussian function leads to the smallest
residues (in statistical sense).
3) Compared with Fig. 12, the residues in Fig. 13 are larger.
However, they are still satisfied compared to the real
damping ratio value in Fig. 11. To the Gaussian function,
the value (which is 50) is much smaller than the max-
imum distance between the two operating points (which is
), indicating a stable result.
D. Further Discussions
Selection of is critical for best results. In machine learning,
it is suggested to be selected by cross validation (CV) [21].
First, the data is divided into two sets, one for training and one
for testing. Then, CV is used to select the best in the testing
data in order to limit problems like over fitting. However, CV
needs large calculations and is not suitable for online application
(especially when data quantity is large); therefore, a promising
method is using a fixed trained offline with CV. Moreover, as
different data lead to different CV results, to adapt different sit-
uations, could be a little larger than the CV results.
VI. CASE STUDY IN CHINA SOUTHERN GRID
Here, an actual complex power system, China Southern Grid
(CSG), is employed to validate the proposed online damping
ratio prediction method.
A. Background
CSG is a well-known ac/dc parallel transmission system
in the world, comprising Guangdong (GD), Guangxi (GX),
Yunnan (YN), Guizhou (GZ), and Hainan (HN) provincial
networks in China (Fig. 14).
The system has two inter-area modes, the YN versus GZ
mode, which dominates oscillations of generators between YN
and GZ provinces with frequency in the range of 0.55–0.6 Hz
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 31, NO. 3, MAY 2016
Fig. 14. CSG in 2008.
TABLE IV
DOMINANT ELECTROMECHANICAL MODES IN CSG
and the (YN and GZ) versus GD mode which dominates oscil-
lation of YN and GZ provinces against GD province with fre-
quency in the range of 0.35–0.4 Hz. The (YN and GZ) versus
GD mode is well damped while the YN versus GZ mode is
poorly damped and, therefore, it needs to be monitored care-
fully.
The simulation system of CSG has been employed in [5] and
[6] for different damping controllers studies. In this case, the
simulation environment is the same as in [6], which is chosen
on the basis of operating conditions prevailing in 2008. The two
dominant electromechanical modes are shown in Table IV. Due
to space constraints, we do not repeat the system introduction;
readers are referred to [6] for more details.
B. Data Collection
Forty loads spread over the system are injected with filtered
Gaussian white noise to simulate the practical environment.
Seven hundred operating points, different from the initial
conditions, are randomly established, with within %
compared with the initial operating point. Ambient signals at
each operating point are employed to estimate the YN versus
GZ mode using the stochastic subspace method and the Monte
Carlo method; the corresponding is also collected. The final
data base including the initial operating point has 701 different
data pairs.
C. Implement LWLR to Online Damping Ratio Prediction
In the following part, damping ratio of the YN versus GZ
mode, which dominates oscillations of generators between YN
and GZ provinces with frequency in the range of 0.55–0.6 Hz,
is predicted under different operating points.
First, training samples to LWLR are generated. Seven hun-
dred different operating points with active power of 29 power
stations (which are highly participated in the YN versus GZ
mode) varying randomly (compared with the initial operating
point) are generated. For each point, the power flow is auto-
matically balanced with the reference bus of this system. The
oscillation mode is estimated by ambient signal analysis, and
ZHANG et al.: ONLINE DAMPING RATIO PREDICTION USING LOCALLY WEIGHTED LINEAR REGRESSION
Fig. 15. Damping ratio regressions in CSG.
Fig. 16. Regressed residues in CSG.
the training data is formulated consequently. The final regres-
sion model has 30 input variables (varying power of 29 power
stations plus the constant value), one output variable (damping
ratio of the YN versus GZ mode) and 700 training samples.
Then, LWLR is used to regress damping ratio of the YN
versus GZ mode. The success rate of three weighting func-
tions with different and are summarized in Table V (the
CV suggests in the Gaussian function, so is
employed.). The final results without numerical problems are
compared in Fig. 15, and the regression residues are shown in
Fig. 16.
The following results are demonstrated.
1) The uniform weighting function and Tri-cube function
need large to avoid missing observations (Table V).
And this costs regression accuracy, i.e., local property (in
Figs. 15 and 16). The Gaussian function gets good results
with even a small .
2) Gaussian function achieves very good performance with
only . Since Gaussian function is more stable
without losing the local property, it may be a prior choice
in practice.
The damping ratio prediction test is carried out where 350 out
of 700 training samples are randomly removed. The damping
ratios at these missing points are predicted with LWLR trained
by the remaining 350 sets.
The success rates of three weighting functions with different
and are summarized in Table VI. The final predicted
damping ratio residues without numerical problems are com-
pared in Fig. 17.
1961
TABLE V
REGRESSION WITH DIFFERENT WINDOWS AND WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS IN CSG
Fig. 17. Predicted residues in CSG.
TABLE VI
PREDICTION WITH DIFFERENT WINDOWS AND WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS IN CSG
The results lead us to the following conclusions.
1) The Gaussian function prevents numerical problems and
guarantees local properties of the prediction. The predicted
damping ratio is accurate; the residues are limited to %
of the estimated damping ratio values.
2) For the uniform weighting function and Tri-cube function,
the results are inferior but acceptable compared to the es-
timated damping ratio values.
3) By reviewing all of the tests done in this study, Gaussian
function with an appropriate value is the first choice for
online damping ratio prediction in actual power systems.
VII. CONCLUSION
In this study, the LWLR is introduced to online damping ratio
prediction, which works much better than the existing linear re-
gression method. Three popular weighting functions (the uni-
form weighting function, the Tri-cube function and the Gaussian
function), with their local property of the ability to fit a nonlinear
power system and the numerical conditions to avoid rank defi-
ciency in the regression algorithm, are extensively investigated.
With simulations carried out in a two-area four-machine system
and a large complex system, China Southern Grid, it is sug-
gested that the Gaussian function with an appropriate value is
the first choice for online damping ratio prediction, because the
Gaussian function can guarantee local properties of a strongly
1962
nonlinear power system while it prevents numerical problems
such as rank deficiency. The simulation results also indicate
with the Gaussian function, LWLR can predict damping ratio
under future operating conditions precisely; the estimation bias
can be limited to % of the estimated damping ratio values,
which validates the effectiveness of this method.
In the future, we will apply LWLR to real power system data,
investigate its robustness to bad data and integrate it with other
online application methods.
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Junbo Zhang (S'10–M'14) was born in Guizhou,
China, on March 16, 1986. He received the B.Eng.
and Ph.D. degrees from Tsinghua University, Bei-
jing, China, in 2008 and 2013, respectively,.
He was then a Postdoctoral Fellow with Tsinghua
University, Beijing, China. He studied at The Hong
Kong Polytechnic University from 2009 to 2011
under a collaborative program between Tsinghua
University and The Hong Kong Polytechnic Uni-
versity. He is now an Assistant Professor with the
School of Electric Power, South China University of
Technology, Guangzhou, China. His research areas include wide-area-based
power system analysis and control, signal processing, and system identification
in power system.
C. Y. Chung (M'01–SM'07) received the B.Eng.
degree (with First Class Honors) and Ph.D. degree
in electrical engineering from The Hong Kong
Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, in 1995
and 1999, respectively.
He was with Powertech Labs, Inc., Surrey, BC,
Canada, the University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB,
Canada, and The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,
China. He is currently a Professor and the SaskPower
Chair in Power Systems Engineering with the De-
partment of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada. His research interests
include power system stability/control, planning and operation, computational
intelligence applications, power markets and electric vehicle charging.
Dr. Chung is an editor for the IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY and an Editorial Board Member of IET Generation, Transmission
&and Distribution. He is also a Member-at-Large (Smart Grid) of the IEEE
Power Engineering Society (PES) Governing Board and the IEEE PES Region
10 North Chapter Representative.
Yingduo Han (SM'95) was born in Shenyang,
China, in 1938. H received the B.S. and M.S. degrees
from Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, in 1962
and 1965, respectively.
He is a Professor with the Electrical Engineering
Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China,
and was the Vice-Chairman and Chairman of that
department from 1986 to 1995. Since 1989, he has
been the Head of the Power Electronics Research
Center, Tsinghua University. He is a Visiting Pro-
fessor with the University of Macau, Macau, China.
He has published two books and more than 100 papers. For more than 30 years,
he has been engaged in education and research work on electric power systems
and automation. In recent years, he has engaged in FACTS and DFACTS,
intelligent control, regional stability control, new dynamic security estimation,
and GPS-based control systems.
Dr. Han is a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. He was the
recipient of four State-level prizes and six First and Second ranked Province-
level and Ministry-level prizes.