Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Agile
o m Ba s i c s to
Fr
rs
Brainstumpe
Mike Cohn
n tain go a t s o ftware.com
mike@mou 010
9 August 2
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
1
Mike Cohn
Founding member and
director of Agile Alliance
and Scrum Alliance
Founder of Mountain
Goat Software
Doing Scrum since 1995
Started my career as a
programmer; worked as
VP Engineering in 4
companies
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
® 3
Encourages change
Estimating
ical velocity
How do I best use histor
data?
ity for a
How do I estimate veloc
new team?
locity if
How do do I estimate ve
team size changes?
How do I reliab
ly c
a fixed scope or ommit to
fixe
How do I create d date?
a plan when
there is a trem
endous
amount of unce
rtain
what we’re buil ty in
ding ?
When should I
re-estimate?
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software®
® 6
How long will it take...
...to read the latest
Harry Potter book?
...to drive to Denver?
Traditional Agile
measures measures
of size of size
Lines of Code Story points
Function Points Ideal days
8 1
38 11 2
an exact number.
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
® 13
Story Points
Code… 12 Code… 8
Design… 8 As a frequent
3 Test…
31 6
flyer, I want to…
Document… 8 Design… 12
As a visitor, I
48…
Decide 8
can…
5 Test… 5
Analyze… 4
As a vacation
Automate… 8 5 …48 48
planner, I can…
As a frequent
22
… 22
flyer, I want to…
2
TeammA Tea
am A
Sprint Velocity
1 20 Standard
Mean
Deviation
2 28
3 24 22 3.8
4 16
5 18
6 23
7 26
8 21
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software®
® 20
Standard Relative Std.
Mean
Deviation Dev.
Team A 22 3.8 17%
Team B 28 6.2 22%
Team C 45 9.3 20% Total of
estimates on
... ... ... ...
product backlog
Average 19%
How do do I estimate
velocity if team size
will change during the
project?
Initial New
Sprint +1 Sprint +2 Sprint +3
Team Size Team Size
6 7 –20% –4% +12%
6 7 0% –6% +15%
7 5 –12% –8% –8%
8 6 –20% –20% –16%
7 8 –15%
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
® 27
How do I reliably
commit to a fixed scope
or fixed date?
Will have
6×15
Might have
6×20
Won’t have
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
® 30
Fixed-date contracting
If you write a contract for
just the will-haves:
Will have • You won’t likely win the contract
• But you’ll probably make money if you do
6×15
If you write a contract that
Might have includes the might haves:
• You will likely win the contract
6×20 • But probably not make money on it
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
® 31
120÷20=
120÷15=
Fixed-scope contracting
If you write a contract for
the short duration:
• You’ll likely win the contract
• But may not make any money
50% Time=1:05
estimate
Buffer to Time=1:45
90%
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software®
® 40
Probability of Completion
Time
50% estimates
Remove all local safety: no “padding”
An estimate you should / will
miss more than half the time
90% estimates
Not really a worst case
No lightning strikes or busses running over people
Keep in mind that you’ll even exceed this
estimate occasionally
+ 90%
50% Time=1:05
1 estimate
45 Buffer to Time=1:45
5 90%
7
7
53
Simple rule
Use 50% of the unbuffered (50%) schedule
More sophisticated, usually better
Schedule = 16 + 111 = 16 + 11 = 27
© Copyright Mountain Goat Software®
® 50
When should I
re-estimate?
Re-estimating
We expect But we finish
velocity = 12 half that much
3 3
3 3
3
3
3
3
3 3
3 3
3 3
3 3
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
® 52
But a velocity of 6 But if all stories are the
doesn’t seem right; so same size, we need to
we double those stories double all of them
6 6
6 6
3 6
3 6
3 6
3 6
3 6
3 6
© Copyright
© 2009Mountain
MountainGoat Software®
GoatSoftware
® 53
No re-estimating
• What is the team’s velocity?
• Will they be able to maintain that velocity?
A Guiding Tip:
The sum of all items on
the product backlog
should always represent
the full size of the entire
project.
My upcoming classes