Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
FIRST GLOBAL
www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Table of Contents
The Story… 3-4
Key Ratios 16
The Company 18
Business Highlights 19
1
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Financial Highlights 20
• Revenues record CAGR of 29.2% over four year period 20
• Balance sheet restructuring 20
• EBIDTA margin 20
• Debt 20
Key Ratios 26
The Company 28
Financial Highlights 31
• Segmental revenues 31
• Order book provides good earnings visibility 31
Key Ratios 37
The Company 39
Business Highlights 40
Financial Highlights 41
• Margins 41
• Increase in debt level due to higher working capital 41
2
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
The Story…
Over the last six years, the power transmission towers sector has been delivering pretty good returns
and strong growth, driven primarily by inter-regional capacity additions, distribution reforms, rural
electrification and a robust growth in power generation. The
We believe that companies Government of India’s (GoI) Eleventh Plan has envisaged a
possessing financial strength capital expenditure of over Rs.6,665 bn for the country’s power
and project execution skills sector in order to ensure “Power for All”. The GoI’s Common
will enjoy an edge over their Minimum Program is focusing on achieving 100% village
competitors and will be better electrification by the year 2009 and 100% household
positioned to capitalize on the electrification by 2012. It plans to add 78,700 MW of power
opportunities arising in the
generation capacity in the XIth Five Year Plan, which, coupled
power transmission sector
with, its decision to set up transmission lines with generation
capacity for effective power evacuation, has opened ample
business opportunities for transmission lines companies. The planning commission has allocated a
budget of Rs.3,773 bn towards power generation, Rs.1,404 bn for power transmission and Rs.1,487
bn for sub-transmission and power distribution system, in order to tackle the power deficit situation
prevailing in the country. We believe that companies possessing financial strength and project
execution skills will enjoy an edge over their competitors and will be better positioned to capitalize
on the opportunities arising in the power transmission sector.
3
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Comparative Valuation
Annual Annual
EPS P/E P/S P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EBITDA ROE ROCE EPS Sales
Company Year
(Rs.) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) Growth Growth
(%) (%)
End FY10E FY11E FY10E FY11E FY10E FY11E FY10E FY11E FY10E FY11E FY10E FY11E FY10E FY10E FY10E 11E/10E 11E/10E
KEC International Ltd. Mar 31.6 46.8 18.0 12.1 0.7 0.5 4.1 3.3 0.8 0.6 8.7 6.4 8.9% 24.5% 17.0% 47.9% 21.6%
Kalptaru Power Ltd. Mar 55.7 70.7 15.0 11.8 0.5 0.4 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.6 7.1 6.2 10.8% 15.7% 13.4% 27.1% 25.0%
Jyoti Structures Ltd. Mar 13.0 16.9 11.7 9.0 0.6 0.4 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.5 6.4 5.3 11.1% 22.6% 19.2% 30.2% 32.4%
PTC India Ltd. Mar 4.88 5.28 18.0 16.7 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 30.5 24.2 0.5% 6.9% 7.3% 8.1% 8.5%
NTPC Mar 11.1 15.5 19.0 13.7 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.5 4.3 3.6 15.6 11.2 27.4% 14.7% 10.3% 40.3% 22.7%
Tata Power Co. Ltd. Mar 62.2 71.8 20.9 18.1 1.4 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.7 11.4 9.6 18.0% 14.5% 7.4% 15.4% 24.7%
Power Grid Mar 6.03 7.37 18.7 15.3 6.2 4.7 2.9 2.6 10.3 9.0 12.6 11.1 81.8% 15.7% 8.2% 22.1% 24.9%
Source: Company, FG Estimates
As per the CEA, India’s annual power shortage stands at 11% and the country has a peak shortage at
12.4%. The country’s estimated power requirements at the end of the XI Five Year Plan is 1,038 bn
units, with a peak demand of 151,000 MW. The power ministry
is focusing on increasing the power generation capacity and We expect the margin pressure
evacuation of power from these power stations, which provides to ease, due to lower interest
huge opportunities for transmission companies. Also, India’s rates in FY10 in comparison to
telecom and railway sectors are growing at a very fast pace and FY09 and a decline in
the planning commission has allotted a capex of Rs.2,584 bn commodity prices. The margins
and Rs.2,618 bn for both the sectors respectively. The of companies with a higher
development of the telecom and railways sectors will provide a proportion of fixed price
contracts in their order books
boost to the order book of transmission sector companies.
will witness an improvement
Considering the investments in transmission and distribution
sector, we expect the growth of order book for the transmission
EPC players in tandem with industry growth in the coming years. Further orders from other
developing countries will add to the growth of integrated transmission line EPC companies. In
H2FY08 and HIFY09, higher raw material prices and rising interest rates were the key concerns for
power transmission companies. We expect the margin pressure to ease, due to lower interest rates in
FY10 in comparison to FY09 and a decline in commodity prices. The margins of companies with a
higher proportion of fixed price contracts in their order books will witness an improvement.
4
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
22%
57%
21%
5
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
plans to add 3,253,773 ckt km of line length and 214,000 MVA of substation capacity to the
country’s distribution system, for which it plans to invest Rs.1,404 bn in the transmission sector and
Rs.1,487 bn in the sub-transmission & power distribution system in the XI Five Year Plan. This will
keep the order books of the players in the transmission sector robust for the next few years.
6
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
The dynamics of the power market is changing with a shift towards national transmission of power,
as compared to the earlier region centric generation and consumption pattern. Earlier, the surplus
available in one region was not being fully utilized in other deficit regions, as the previous plans
were not for bulk inter-regional transfer. In line with the shift, new power generating capacities will
be set up in locations based on their proximity to raw material sources and will distribute power to
regions depending on their requirements.
Overseas market
The players in the transmission tower sector are also set to benefit from the emerging export markets,
such as the Middle East and Africa, where transmission tower infrastructure is being ramped up.
Africa and the Middle East continue to offer immense
opportunities, on account of their need for a better power
The players in the transmission
transmission network, funding support from multilateral tower sector are also set to benefit
agencies, huge power generation plans, and increased from the emerging export markets,
spending by oil producing countries. For instance, KEC such as the Middle East and Africa,
International derives about 60% of its revenues from where transmission tower
exports, mainly from the Middle East and Gulf region, infrastructure is being ramped up
while Africa is in the development stage and the availability
of electricity in some parts of the region is in the range of 4-
5%.
7
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Africa has and always had massive investment potential and vast resources. Only 24% of the
population in the sub-Saharan Africa has access to electricity and South Africa accounts for over half
of the region’s electricity production. The region’s electrification programme is growing, which is
creating opportunities for Indian and Chinese companies.
8
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Execution delays
A delay in the execution of transmission projects due to a
A delay in the execution of
delay in the corresponding generation project or delay in
transmission projects due to a delay in
the corresponding generation project rural electrification on account of lack of political will to
or delay in rural electrification on control theft and shift from providing free energy to the
account of lack of political will to agriculture activity will have a direct impact on the
control theft and shift from providing business of transmission companies.
free energy to the agriculture activity
will have a direct impact on the
business of transmission companies
Interest rates
The transmission line industry is working capital intensive in We expect an increase in the
nature. We expect an increase in the interest rates in the near interest rates in the near
future, which could adversely impact the performance of the future, which could adversely
players in the transmission companies. Due to high interest rates, impact the performance of
the players in this space could find it difficult to meet their the players in the
working capital requirements. transmission companies
Competition
The entry of power generation and construction companies into the T&D business could result in an
increase in competition in the industry. In the last two years,
In the last two years, several several strong competitors, such as Reliance Infrastructure and
strong competitors, such as IVRCL, have entered the T&D space, thus resulting in
Reliance Infrastructure and intensifying competition and consequently, margin pressure. The
IVRCL, have entered the T&D new players have adopted aggressive pricing strategies to
space, thus resulting in acquire pre-qualification and/or market share, which may keep
intensifying competition and
the margins of the players in the sector under pressure for some
consequently, margin pressure
more time.
Currency fluctuations
The companies in the transmission line industry are also benefiting from opportunities in the
overseas markets, such as Africa and the Middle East, where the
transmission infrastructure is being ramped up. However, the The appreciation of the Indian
appreciation of the Indian Rupee could have an adverse impact Rupee could have an adverse
on the margins of these companies, as well as on their revenues impact on the margins of these
companies, as well as on their
from the International business in Rupee terms.
revenues from the International
business in Rupee terms
9
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Peer Comparison
Order book
Jyoti: As on August 2009, the company’s order book stood at around Rs.40 bn, out of which 85%
was contributed by the domestic market. In terms of segmental performance, 72% of the company’s
order book comprised of transmission lines, with the balance being equally divided between
substations and rural electrification (RE) orders.
KEC: In Q2 FY10, the company’s order book stood at Rs.55 bn, with 43% coming from the
international market and 57% contributed by South Asia. In Q1 FY10, the company bagged orders
worth Rs.7.2 bn, down 35% Y-o-Y, mainly due to lack of orders from Power Grid, as well as a delay
in orders for telecom towers and related infrastructure from BSNL on account of litigation. Out of
KEC’s total orders, 79% was for transmission, 21% for distribution and substations, and the balance
came from the railway and telecom sectors. KEC’s order book is executable within 18 months. In Q2
FY10, the company bagged orders worth Rs.12.5 bn in the domestic and international market.
Kalpa-taru: In Q1 FY10, the company secured orders worth Rs.2.7 bn and its current order book
stands at Rs.60 bn, including overseas orders worth Rs.20 bn (33% of total order book). In Q2 FY10,
the company received orders worth Rs.14 bn from Maharashtra Electricity Transmission Company
Ltd. (MSETCL) and North East Transmission Company Ltd. for transmission projects. The order
book of JMC Projects, a subsidiary company of KPTL, stood at around Rs.22 bn at the end of the
quarter.
Peer comparison
Market cap/Order book Sales/order book Debt/equity
Jyoti Structures 0.32 0.43 0.73
KEC International 0.48 0.62 1.11
Kalpataru Power 0.36 0.54 1.09
Margin Analysis
Over the period FY06-09, JSL and KEC recorded a CAGR of 35% and 25.7% respectively in
revenues. In FY09, the margins of all the three players declined due to high raw material prices and
forex losses. KPTL’s margins declined from 17% in FY07, which was the highest among the three
companies, to 10% in FY09. For FY10E, we expect JSL’s margins to decline, though we estimate
the margins of KEC and KPTL to improve to 8.9% and 10.8% respectively.
10
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
30,000
16.0%
24,000
12.0%
18,000
8.0%
12,000
4.0%
6,000
0.0% 0
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: FG estimates
Capacity expansion
In view of the continuous In view of the continuous increase in the order book and in order
increase in the order book and to capitalise on opportunities arising in the transmission sector,
in order to capitalise on all the companies are expanding their manufacturing capacities.
opportunities arising in the Jyoti increased its manufacturing capacity from 95,800 MTPA in
transmission sector, all the FY08 to 110,000 MTPA in FY09. The manufacturing capacity of
companies are expanding their KEC and Kalaptaru currently stands at 151,000 MTPA and
manufacturing capacities 108,000 MTPA respectively.
11
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Since most of JSL’s working The working capital cycle for both, KEC and KPTL, increased in
capital requirement is to be FY09. Since most of JSL’s working capital requirement is to be
funded by debt, the company is funded by debt, the company is more vulnerable to an increase in
more vulnerable to an increase working capital than KEC, which will have a direct impact on its
in working capital than KEC, interest costs.
which will have a direct impact
on its interest costs
Return on Equity
The RoE of the three companies has been on a declining trend on account of an increase in raw
material prices. In FY09, JSL’s RoE declined 240 bps to 20.9%, while that of KEC and KPTL fell
sharply from 44.6% and 22.8% to 21.7% and 13.3% respectively. We expect the RoE of KEC,
KPTIL and JSL to improve by around 2% in FY10E.
RoE
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
R oE
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007 2008 2009
Jyoti Structures KEC Kalpataru
Note: We have not considered FY07 financials of Kalpataru Power
Interest cost
We expect JSL to fund a large part of its working capital requirement through debt. As a result,
higher debt and high borrowing costs could pull down JSL’s PBT margin, on account of the increase
in the company’s interest cost.
12
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
13
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
DuPont Model
(YE Mar 31st) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
EBIDTA/Sales (%) 12.3% 12.6% 8.8% 8.9% 9.9%
Sales/Operating Assets (x) 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
EBIDTA/Operating Assets (%) 22.5% 25.3% 17.0% 17.6% 20.2%
Operating Assets/ Net Assets(x) 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6
Net Earnings/ EBIDTA (%) 41.5% 48.6% 38.7% 41.8% 45.8%
Net Assets/ Equity (x) 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9
Return on Equity (%) 46.2% 44.6% 21.7% 24.5% 29.1%
Common Sized Profit & Loss Account
(YE Mar 31st) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
Total Revenues 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Raw Material Consumed 45.5% 50.3% 57.6% 51.6% 53.2%
Erection and Subcontracting expenses 25.8% 22.0% 16.8% 21.5% 17.9%
Personnel expenses 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.4%
Other expenses 11.6% 10.9% 12.7% 14.4% 15.6%
EBITDA 12.3% 12.6% 8.8% 8.9% 9.9%
Depreciation and Amortization 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Interest 2.9% 2.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2%
PBT 7.8% 9.3% 5.2% 5.7% 7.0%
Tax 2.7% 3.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4%
PAT 5.1% 6.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.5%
PAT(Excl.Extra-ordinaries) 5.1% 6.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.5%
Source: Company Reports, FG Estimates.
Key Statistics
Industry: Share holding Pattern as on 30-06-2009
52 Week Hi:Lo: Rs.571.7/110
Non
CMP: Rs. 567.9 Promote r
(NonInstitut Indian
ion) (Promoter &
Avg Daily Vol (20 days): 0.03 mn 13.9% Group)
41.9%
Avg Daily Val (20 days): Rs.18.07 mn Non
Promote r
(Institution)
Performance over 52 weeks: 44.2%
KEC : Up 93.6%
Nifty: Up 40.7 %
14
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
130
790
9-May-08
7-Aug-07
MP
110 OP 690
90 590
(INR)
12-Apr-07 30-Apr-07 490
70 OP OP
9-Oct-09
OP 390
50
290
7-Jan-09
30
MP 190
10 90
10- 17- 17- 18- 21- 24- 2- 6- 7- 10- 11- 13- 22- 25- 27- 3- 9- 18- 27- 28- 30-
Mar-May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug-Nov- Jan- Mar-May- Jul- Sep-
06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09
Relative to NIFTY (LHS) OP FG Reco KEC INTERNATIO Share Price (RHS)
Represents an Upgrade
Represents a Downgrade
Details of First Global’s Rating System given at the end of the report
15
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Key Ratios
(YE Mar 31st) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
Raw Material / Sales (%) 45.5% 50.3% 57.6% 51.6% 53.2%
Other Income/EBT (%) 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.3% 12.6% 8.8% 8.9% 9.9%
Tax / PBT (%) 34.5% 34.3% 34.6% 34.8% 35.0%
Net Profit Margin (%) 5.1% 6.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.5%
RoE (%) 46.2% 44.6% 21.7% 24.5% 29.1%
RoCE (%) 22.9% 23.7% 15.5% 17.0% 19.7%
Sales/Operating Assets (x) 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
Optg. Assets/Total Assets (x) 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6
Return on Optg. Assets (%) 12.8% 15.4% 10.3% 10.6% 12.3%
Total Loans / Equity (%) 142.1% 119.5% 111.3% 102.0% 89.1%
Interest Coverage (times) 4.3 5.2 3.0 3.6 4.4
Interest / Debt (%) 16.5% 13.8% 16.5% 15.9% 15.8%
Growth in Gross Block (%) 3.9% 11.5% 20.0% 12.8% 11.3%
Sales Growth (%) 18.1% 37.9% 21.8% 22.3% 21.6%
Operating (EBITDA) Profit Growth (%) 55.2% 40.7% -15.2% 24.4% 34.9%
Net Profit Growth (%) 112.3% 64.5% -32.5% 34.2% 47.9%
Debtors (Days of net sales) 159 183 194 190 190
Creditors (Days of Raw Materials) 77 112 112 108 106
Inventory (Days of Optg. Costs) 31 30 26 26 26
Current Ratio 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3
Net Current Assets/Capital Employed (%) 37.1% 59.3% 54.0% 55.2% 58.0%
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) (mn) 37.7 49.3 49.3 49.3 49.3
Fully diluted EPS (Rs.) (Reported) 27.8 34.9 23.6 31.6 46.8
Fully diluted EPS (Rs.) Proforma) 27.8 34.9 23.6 31.6 46.8
EPS Growth (%) (Proforma) 112.3% 25.7% -32.5% 34.2% 47.9%
Dividend Payout (%) 19.0% 16.8% 24.8% 23.4% 23.4%
Fully diluted Cash EPS (Rs.) 36.6 40.0 28.2 37.7 53.8
Book Value per share (Rs.) 68.7 98.3 113.2 137.4 173.3
16
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
EBIDTA
Rs 3,003 mn (8.8%) Pricing
Domestic contracts have
price escalation clauses
Other Non-operating Income
: Rs.3 mn (0.01%) International contracts are
Interest: Rs 1,000 mn (2.9%) either fixed price contracts or
Depreciation: Rs 227 mn (0.7%) have price escalation clauses.
Taxes:
Rs.615 mn (1.8%)
Net Profit:
Rs. 1,163mn (3.4%)
Fixed Assets: Rs 5,032 mn (16.3%) Debt & Minority Inte: Rs 6,218 mn (20.1%)
Capital WIP: Rs.504 mn (1.6%) Reserves: Rs 5,092 mn (16.4%)
Investments: Rs 18mn (0.1%) Current Liabilities & Provisions: Rs 18,860 mn
Others: Rs 10 mn (0.03%), (60.9%)
Loans &Advances: Rs 3,266 mn (10.5%), Equity cap incl pref cap: Rs 493 mn (1.6%)
Debtors: Rs 18,510 mn (59.8%), Deferred Tax Liab: Rs.298 mn (1.0%)
Inventory: Rs 2,258 mn (7.3%)
Cash: Rs 1,365 mn (4.4%)
17
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
The Company
KEC International Ltd. (KEC) was established as Kamani Engineering Corp. Ltd. in 1945 and was
taken over by R.P. Goenka (RPG) Enterprises in 1982 and renamed as KEC International Ltd in
1984. KEC is mainly into the business of design, manufacture and erection of transmission towers
and power transmission lines on an EPC basis. The company has now broadened its activities by
diversifying into the distribution sector (through rural electrification projects), railway electrification
projects, as well as providing services, such as optical fibre installations, satellite/GPRS surveys, and
turnkey telecom infrastructure services. KEC is one of the largest power transmission EPC
companies in the world and has operations in around 40 countries, with a strong presence in India,
Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia. With the merger with RPG Transmission Ltd. with KEC in
place from October 1, 2007 onwards, KEC now has three manufacturing plants at Jaipur, Nagpur and
Jabalpur, with a cumulative capacity of 151,000 tonnes per annum, for transmission towers capable
of carrying power ranging from 33 kV to 800 kV.
18
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Business Highlights
KEC’s strong presence in the international market will enable it to capitalise on the growth
opportunities in the US, Middle East and South Asian markets.
The huge investments being made in the railway sector will KEC’s strong presence in the
also provide growth opportunities for the company. KEC’s international market will enable
manufacturing plants are located in Jabalpur, Jaipur and Nagpur it to capitalise on the growth
for producing transmission and telecom towers. The company’s opportunities in the US, Middle
total manufacturing capacity currently stands at 151,000MT. East and South Asian markets.
KEC is experienced in supplying towers to countries such as The huge investments being
the US and Canada and has the capability of testing towers of made in the railway sector will
also provide growth
up to 1,200 kv. The company has tower testing stations at
opportunities for the company
Jabalpur, Jaipur and Vashi and has tested 2,214 tower tests till
date. KEC has also presence in telecom towers and railway
electrification segments.
19
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Financial Highlights
Revenues record CAGR of 29.2% over four year period
Over the period FY05-09, KEC’s revenues recorded a CAGR of 29.2%. The company’s order book
currently stands at Rs.55 bn or 1.6 x its FY09 revenues. We expect the huge investments in the
transmission and distribution segment to drive an improvement in KEC’s order book as well as
project execution, which will result in the company’s revenues recording a CAGR of 21% over the
period FY09 to FY11E.
EBIDTA margin
In FY09, KEC’s EBIDTA margin declined from 12.6% in FY08 to 8.8%, due to higher raw material
prices and forex losses. We expect the company’s EBIDTA
The easing of commodity prices margin to improve to 8.9% in FY10E, on account of falling
and the depreciated Rupee will raw material prices. The easing of commodity prices and the
help the company improve its depreciated Rupee will help the company improve its EBIDTA
EBIDTA margin, as a major margin, as a major portion of its order book comes from the
portion of its order book comes international markets in terms of fixed priced contracts. KEC
from the international markets in
has been able to maintain its margins at a healthy level due to
terms of fixed priced contracts
its operational leverage and execution of high margin orders.
Debt
In FY09, KEC’s total debt increased by 5% Y-o-Y to Rs.6.2 bn, while its interest expense grew 48%
Y-o-Y to Rs.1, 000 mn. The company’s operations are exposed to currency risks arising from a large
share of exports in its total revenues, as well as on account of counter party credit risks. Funding
support from multi-lateral agencies for overseas projects, particularly in the developing countries,
provides some comfort to KEC. The company incurred a capex of Rs.1.3 bn in FY09, which was
funded through internal accruals.
KEC’s debt/equity
2.0
1.8 1.8
1.6
1.4 1.4
1.2 1.2
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2006 2007 2008 2009
Debt/Equity
20
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
• In Q1 FY10, net sales increased marginally by 21.1% Y-o-Y to Rs.7.2 bn, out of which, 65%
came from international sales, while 35% was contributed by the South Asian market.
• The company’s volume sales for the quarter came in at 32,000 MT.
• Out of the company’s total revenues, the transmission segment contributed 87%, distribution
segment 9% and the railway & telecom segment 4%.
• Erection and fabrication/sub contracting charges rose 94.7% Y-o-Y to Rs.2.2 bn.
• The EBIDTA increased by 39.2% Y-o-Y to Rs.856 mn, while the EBIDTA margin improved
by 153 bps Y-o-Y to 11.8%, on account of a forex gain of Rs.199 mn.
• In Q1 FY10, the company’s PAT increased by 49.9% Y-o-Y to Rs.382 mn, due to low
interest costs and forex gain.
• The company’s total order inflow declined 35% Y-o-Y to Rs.8 bn in Q1 FY10. KEC received
orders from a JV between the Tripura government and IL&FS, the West Bengal State
Electricity Board, and Chhattisgarh State Electricity Board. The company also received
orders from South Africa, Peru, Australia, Middle East and Africa.
21
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
22
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
DuPont Model
(YE Mar 31st) FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
EBIDTA/Sales (%) 12.3% 10.2% 10.8% 10.5%
Sales/Operating Assets (x) 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.2
EBIDTA/Operating Assets (%) 31.1% 20.8% 21.7% 23.4%
Operating Assets/ Net Assets(x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Net Earnings/ EBIDTA (%) 50.1% 33.6% 33.7% 35.2%
Net Assets/ Equity (x) 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.1
Return on Equity (%) 22.8% 13.3% 15.7% 17.3%
Common Sized Profit & Loss Account
(YE Mar 31st) FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
Total Revenues 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Raw Material Consumed 48.6% 50.7% 49.0% 49.0%
Employees Emoluments 5.7% 6.1% 6.1% 5.5%
Manufacturing & Operating expenses 26.1% 27.1% 26.5% 27.0%
Administrative, Selling & Other expenses 7.3% 5.9% 7.6% 8.0%
EBITDA 87.7% 89.8% 89.2% 89.5%
Depreciation and Amortization 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4%
Interest 2.5% 4.2% 3.4% 3.2%
Non-Operating Income 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
PBT 9.3% 5.2% 5.8% 5.9%
Tax 2.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%
PAT 6.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7%
PAT(Excl.Extra-ordinaries) 6.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7%
23
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Key Statistics
Industry: Share Holding Pattern as on 30-06-2009
52 Week Hi:Lo: Rs.852.8/227.5 Non
Prom oter
CMP: Rs. 833.5 (Institution)
26.5%
Avg Daily Vol (20 days): 0.04 mn
Nifty: Up 40.7 %
24
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
775
03-Jan-2005 =100 (LHS) 2170
675
1870
575
1570
1-Nov-07
OP
475 1270
9-Oct-09
(INR)
375 OP
970
9-Jun-06
275 UP
670
7-Jan-09
OP
175 370
75 70
3- 4- 29- 28- 28- 30- 28- 25- 22- 28- 27- 24- 20- 24- 24- 22- 26- 31- 3- 1-
Jan- Apr- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jul- Oct-
05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09
Relative to NIFTY (LHS) FG Reco KALPATARU POWER Share Price (RHS)
Represents an Upgrade
Represents a Downgrade
25
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Key Ratios
(YE Mar 31st) FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
Raw Material / Sales (%) 48.6% 50.7% 49.0% 49.0%
Other Income/EBT (%) 10.1% 20.4% 0.1% 0.0%
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.3% 10.2% 10.8% 10.5%
Tax / PBT (%) 27.7% 24.5% 27.6% 27.6%
Net Profit Margin (%) 6.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7%
RoE (%) 22.8% 13.3% 15.7% 17.3%
RoCE (%) 18.5% 14.1% 13.4% 14.8%
Sales/Operating Assets (x) 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.2
Optg. Assets/Total Assets (x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Return on Optg. Assets (%) 19.9% 12.9% 13.5% 14.7%
Total Loans / Equity (%) 57.3% 108.9% 101.7% 96.6%
Interest Coverage (times) 4.9 2.4 3.2 3.3
Interest / Debt (%) 15.9% 19.7% 14.2% 15.1%
Growth in Gross Block (%) 39.8% 29.0% 23.0% 17.6%
Sales Growth (%) 67.4% 21.4% 25.0% 25.0%
Operating (EBITDA) Profit Growth (%) 21.2% 0.1% 32.9% 21.5%
Net Profit Growth (%) 2.3% -32.7% 32.9% 27.2%
Debtors (Days of net sales) 126 159 149 149
Creditors (Days of Raw Materials) 56 65 59 59
Inventory (Days of Optg. Costs) 42 41 41 42
Current Ratio 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7
Net Current Assets/Capital Employed (%) 42.2% 47.6% 50.9% 53.1%
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) (mn) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5
Fully diluted EPS (Rs.) (Reported) 62.2 41.9 55.7 70.7
Fully diluted EPS (Rs.) Proforma) 62.2 41.9 55.7 70.7
EPS Growth (%) (Proforma) 2.3% -32.7% 32.9% 27.1%
Dividend Payout (%) 14.5% 21.3% 14.0% 14.1%
Fully diluted Cash EPS (Rs.) 62.2 41.9 55.7 70.7
Book Value per share (Rs.) 294.2 327.4 374.1 434.9
26
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Taxes:
Rs.417 mn (1.3%)
Minority Interest:
Rs.173 mn (0.5%)
Net Profit:
Rs.1, 109mn (3.4%)
Fixed Assets: Rs 5,331 mn (16.9%) Debt & Minority Inte: Rs 10,398 mn (32.9%)
Capital WIP: Rs.1,133 mn (3.6%) Reserves: Rs 8,433 mn (26.7%)
Investments: Rs 5mn (0.02%) Current Liabilities & Provisions: Rs 12,256 mn
Others: Rs 3,636 mn (11.5%), (38.8%)
Loans &Advances: Rs 3,424 mn (10.8%), Equity cap incl pref cap: Rs 265 mn (0.8%)
Debtors: Rs 14,160 mn (44.9%), Deferred Tax Liab: Rs.206 mn (0.7%)
Inventory: Rs 3,270 mn (10.4)
Cash: Rs 583 mn (1.8%)
Miscellaneous Assets: Rs 17 mn (0.1%)
27
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
The Company
Kalpataru Power Transmission Limited (KPTL) is a part of the diversified Kalpataru Group and was
incorporated in 1981 as HT Power Structures Pvt. Ltd. KPTL is in the business of design, testing,
fabrication, erection and construction of transmission lines and substation structures on a turnkey
basis across India as well as overseas. It is one of the leading companies in the field of turnkey
projects for EHV transmission lines of up to 800 kv. The company also provides EPC services for
distribution projects of 11/33 kv and constructs cross country pipelines, besides telecom towers.
The company manufactured 98,484 MT of towers in FY09, as against 79,531 MT in FY08. KPTL’s
production capacity currently stands at 108,000 MT of towers and the company has an average
capacity utilization rate of 96%.
28
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Business Highlights
Within four years of entering the infrastructure business in the oil & gas sector, KPTL completed
over 1,200 kms of crosscountry pipelines in India. The company has invested Rs.1 bn in specialized
construction equipment to enable the division to build crosscountry pipelines of any size from 12
inch to 48 inch and in the toughest of terrains.
KPTL has a diversified business model and has a presence in T&D, real estate, infrastructure and
biomass energy. The company has made a successful foray into international rural distribution
projects in Kenya by securing orders from Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Ltd. KPTL expects to bag
more rural distribution and transmission jobs from the African market.
Segments
Transmission & Distribution
The transmission tower sector is KPTL’s core business and is witnessing a phenomenal growth. The
thrust on building transmission infrastructure and rural electrification augurs well for the segment.
The company is also witnessing a number of growth opportunities in the international market in
countries such as the Middle East, North Africa, Algeria, Nigeria,
Ethiopia, Libya and others, which are planning to make huge
investments in the transmission sector. KPTL is likely to benefit The transmission tower
sector is KPTL’s core
from the same due to its international presence. On the distribution
business and is witnessing a
front, the company is focused on rural electrification projects, phenomenal growth. The
where the scope of work includes supplies of various items thrust on building
required for these projects. In the last five years, the company has transmission infrastructure
commissioned 4,000 kms of lines and has additional orders to and rural electrification
commission lines in excess of 2,500 kms over the next 18-24 augurs well for the segment
months.
29
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Infrastructure Division
KPTL has recently entered the Infrastructure business and in order to overcome pre-qualification
problems and execution risks, it has entered into consortium/cooperation agreements with overseas
pipeline contractors. The pipeline network available in India today
KPTL has recently entered is grossly inadequate to transport the products to demand centres
the Infrastructure business in an efficient, safe and environment friendly way. An estimated
and in order to overcome pre- 7000 kms of gas pipelines and over 4000 kms of product and
qualification problems and crude pipelines are estimated to be set up in the next 3-4 years,
execution risks, it has entered mainly by Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL), Bharat
into consortium/cooperation Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum
agreements with overseas
Corporation Ltd. (HPCL), Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation
pipeline contractors
Limited (GSPC), Reliance and GAIL. Besides, a number of four
lanes and six lanes highways/expressways are likely to be
promoted in the next 3-4 years under various National Highway Development Programmes, wherein
more private participation is sought on a BOT basis. KPTL is considering entering the road sector for
BOT projects on a selective basis, wherein JMC Projects will provide support as an EPC contractor.
30
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Financial Highlights
Segmental revenues
In FY09, KPTL’s net sales increased by 21.4% Y-o-Y to Rs.32,461 mn. Revenues of the T&D
segment grew 10.1% Y-o-Y to Rs.16,878 mn, revenues of the construction segment were up 43.1%
Y-o-Y to Rs. 13,090 mn, while the biomass energy segment recorded a growth of 30% Y-o-Y to
Rs.476 mn. We expect KPTL to record a CAGR of 24% in revenues over the period FY09 to FY11E
to Rs.50,720 mn.
31
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
• In Q1 FY10, KPTL’s revenues increased marginally by 2.4% Y-o-Y to Rs.4.8 bn, out of
which, the T&D segment contributed 78%, while the balance was contributed by the biomass
energy and infrastructure division. Revenues of the T&D segment declined 6.1% Y-o-Y to
Rs.3.8 bn, while revenues of the infrastructure division grew 62% Y-o-Y to Rs.949 mn.
Segmental Analysis
Segment Revenue(Rs. mn) % contribution
Transmission & Distribution 3,798 78%
Real Estate division 0.2 0%
Biomass energy division 125 3%
Infrastructure division 949 19%
Source: company
• Due to decline in the commodity prices, the raw material cost declined by 21.9% Y-o-Y to
Rs. 1.9 bn.
• JMC Projects, a subsidiary company of KPTL posted revenue of Rs. 2.9 bn in Q1 FY10 as
against Rs. 3.1 bn in the corresponding last quarter.
32
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
33
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
DuPont Model
(YE Mar 31st) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
EBIDTA/Sales (%) 12.9% 12.5% 11.4% 11.1% 10.2%
Sales/Operating Assets (x) 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.0
EBIDTA/Operating Assets (%) 30.1% 31.1% 27.3% 28.6% 30.6%
Operating Assets/ Net Assets(x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
Net Earnings/ EBIDTA (%) 43.9% 42.1% 40.7% 43.0% 45.9%
Net Assets/ Equity (x) 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6
Return on Equity (%) 27.5% 23.3% 20.9% 22.6% 23.9%
Common Sized Profit & Loss Account
(YE Mar 31st) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
Total Revenues 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Raw Material Consumed 60.6% 65.2% 64.2% 66.0% 66.7%
Erection and Subcontracting expenses 14.8% 12.4% 12.8% 13.1% 12.7%
Personnel expenses 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%
Other expenses 8.9% 7.3% 9.1% 7.3% 7.7%
EBITDA 12.9% 12.5% 11.4% 11.1% 10.2%
Depreciation and Amortization 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6%
Interest 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7%
Non-Operating Income 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
PBT 9.0% 8.8% 7.4% 7.2% 7.1%
Tax 3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4%
PAT 5.7% 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7%
PAT(Excl.Extra-ordinaries) 5.7% 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7%
Source: Company Reports, FG Estimates.
34
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Key Statistics
Industry:
52 Week Hi:Lo: Rs.166.9/40
Shareholding Pattern as on Jun '09
Non Non
CMP: 151.6
Promoter Promoter
(Institution) (Non-
Avg Daily Vol (20 days): 0.24 mn
44% Institution)
29%
Avg Daily Val (20 days): Rs.37.7 mn
35
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
9-Oct-09
(INR)
OP
220 150
12-Apr-07 7-Jan-09
OP MP
170 100
120 50
70 0
3- 4- 29- 28- 28- 30- 28- 25- 22- 28- 27- 24- 20- 24- 24- 22- 26- 31- 3- 1-
Jan- Apr- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jul- Oct-
05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09
Relative to NIFTY (LHS) FG Reco JYOTI STRUCTURES Share Price (RHS)
Represents an Upgrade
Represents a Downgrade
Details of First Global’s Rating System given at the end of the report
36
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Key Ratios
(YE Mar 31st) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
Raw Material / Sales (%) 60.6% 65.2% 64.2% 66.0% 66.7%
Other Income/EBT (%) 0.9% 1.3% 5.8% 1.9% 1.6%
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.9% 12.5% 11.4% 11.1% 10.2%
Tax / PBT (%) 37.1% 39.8% 36.9% 34.0% 34.0%
Net Profit Margin (%) 5.7% 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7%
RoE (%) 27.5% 23.3% 20.9% 22.6% 23.9%
RoCE (%) 20.6% 19.7% 18.8% 19.2% 19.8%
Sales/Operating Assets (x) 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.0
Optg. Assets/Total Assets (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
Return on Optg. Assets (%) 18.1% 18.0% 16.5% 17.7% 19.1%
Total Loans / Equity (%) 58.3% 66.2% 73.1% 67.6% 58.5%
Interest Coverage (times) 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.3 3.8
Interest / Debt (%) 20.5% 24.2% 25.8% 22.8% 22.0%
Growth in Gross Block (%) 9.7% 12.8% 59.8% 23.7% 11.5%
Sales Growth (%) 39.1% 41.2% 25.3% 29.5% 32.4%
Operating (EBITDA) Profit Growth (%) 67.7% 37.1% 14.0% 25.5% 22.1%
Net Profit Growth (%) 98.8% 31.6% 10.1% 32.7% 30.2%
Debtors (Days of net sales) 129 130 137 119 119
Creditors (Days of Raw Materials) 82 69 89 84 84
Inventory (Days of Optg. Costs) 33 24 35 34 28
Current Ratio 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2
Net Current Assets/Capital Employed (%) 82.6% 85.7% 79.9% 79.2% 80.9%
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) (mn) 80.7 81.2 81.7 81.7 81.7
Fully diluted EPS (Rs.) (Reported) 6.8 8.9 9.8 13.0 16.9
Fully diluted EPS (Rs.) Proforma) 6.8 8.9 9.8 13.0 16.9
EPS Growth (%) (Proforma) 77.5% 30.8% 9.5% 32.7% 30.2%
Dividend Payout (%) 10.3% 10.5% 10.8% 12.7% 12.7%
Fully diluted Cash EPS (Rs.) 7.5 9.7 10.8 14.7 18.9
Book Value per share (Rs.) 33.9 41.8 50.9 62.2 76.9
37
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Net Profit:
Rs. 797 mn (4.6%)
38
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
The Company
Jyoti Structures Ltd. (JSL), incorporated in 1974, is in the business of project execution related to
power transmission and comprising transmission line and sub-stations. The company manufactures,
deals in various components/equipments and constructs infrastructure related to power transmission.
JSL has the expertise to take on turnkey projects for transmission lines from 33 kV to 800 kV and
substations of up to 400 kV, irrespective of the terrain, location and requirements of power utilities
within as well as outside India.
JSL has two plants located at Nasik and Raipur, for manufacturing transmission lines towers with a
combined capacity of 110,000MT per annum. Both the facilities are also well equipped for
microwave towers, windmill towers and railway electrification structures. The company also has in-
house tower testing facilities of up to 1,000 kv at Ghoti, Igatpuri.
39
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Business Highlights
JSL is the smallest player in our coverage universe in the transmission sector. After incurring losses
incurred in the export market in 2002, the company had been focusing on the domestic market and
reduced its high exposure to exports. JSL is now once again
looking at export opportunities, though in a planned manner, After incurring losses incurred in
and is selectively choosing international ventures. The the export market in 2002, the
company is bidding for projects in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, company had been focusing on the
Ethiopia, Australia and Ghana. It has formed a joint venture domestic market and reduced its
(JV) - Gulf Jyoti International LLC - with the Gulf high exposure to exports. JSL is
Investment Corporation, Kuwait for establishing a tower now once again looking at export
manufacturing facility in the UAE, which will provide the opportunities, though in a planned
manner, and is selectively
company with the necessary footing for catering to the
choosing international ventures
demand in the export market. JSL has supplied over 650,000
MT of transmission line towers and structures to various
utilities in India as well as abroad. The company has tested over 200 types of transmission line
towers for various clients worldwide.
The company has been on the growth trajectory since the year 2003 and is recognised for its
financial performance and strong project execution capabilities. With its core competence being
transmission project execution as well as towers, JSL is now tapping
We expect the GoI’s rural the growing demand in the transmission segment. JSL has entered
electrification programme into contracts with Damodar Valley Corporation for the evacuation
and expansion of the of power from the Durgapur Steel Plant and Raghunathpur thermal
country’s transmission power station. The company also has a contract with Reliance
network to provide huge Power Trading for setting up 400 kv transmission lines in
opportunities for JSL to Maharashtra and Gujarat. We expect the GoI’s rural electrification
generate higher revenues
programme and expansion of the country’s transmission network to
provide huge opportunities for JSL to generate higher revenues. The
company’s robust order book position is an indication of its strong growth prospects. In order to
benefit from the growth in the T&D space in Africa, where the availability of electricity in some
parts of the country is in the range of 5-6%, the company has formed a joint venture, Jyoti Structures
Africa (Pty.) Ltd. and signed a contract with the Republic of South Africa for 765 kv transmission
line worth Rands 184 mn (Rs.930 mn).
Over the period 2004-09, the company’s production capacity recorded a CAGR of 16%, while
production recorded a CAGR of 32%. The company recently increased its capacity from 95,800MT
to 110,000MT and is expected to witness a robust order flow in the next two-three years, due to
spending on the national grid by PGCIL and the government’s thrust on rural electrification
programmes. The company’s capacity utilization increased from 41% in FY04 to 77.6% in FY09 on
the increased capacity of 110,000MT and we expect the capacity utilization to be in the 80-83%
range on the back of higher order intake in the coming years. The company’s capacity expansion,
coupled with higher capacity utilization, will result in better order intake.
40
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Financial Highlights
Around 65% of JSL’s orders come from transmission projects, 15% from substations, and the rest
20% from rural electrification related distribution projects. Almost 85% of JSL’s orders are from the
domestic market. With a rich experience of over three decades, the company boasts of executing
projects across 36 countries worldwide.
Margins
JSL’s order book currently stands at Rs.40 bn, or 2.3x its FY09 revenues, and is executable in 18-24
months. We expect the company’s order book execution to drive a CAGR of 30% in its total
revenues from FY09 to FY11E. The company’s EBIDTA margin declined from 12.9% in FY07 to
11.4% in FY09, primarily on account of an increase in Other expenses (conversion expenses and
freight charges), as well as fixed price international orders.
35,000 14.0%
30,000 12.0%
EBIDTA M argin
25,000 10.0%
Rs. m n
20,000 8.0%
15,000 6.0%
10,000 4.0%
5,000 2.0%
0 0.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
41
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
• In Q1 FY10, JSL recorded net sales of Rs.4.8 bn, up 21% Y-o-Y, driven by the execution of a
strong order book. Transmission line projects contributed 68% of the company’s net sales,
while 15% was contributed by substations and 17% by rural electrification projects.
• Out of JSL’s total sales, 88% came from the domestic market and the balance from exports.
Transmission lines constituted around 68% of the company’s sales in the quarter, followed by
rural electrification at around 17% and substation at about 15%.
• In Q1 FY10, the company’s conversion cost (erection cost) increased from Rs.40 mn in Q1
FY09 to Rs.70 mn per MT, while its freight cost rose from Rs.30 mn in Q1 FY09 to Rs.50
mn.
• JSL’s outstanding secured loans increased from Rs.3 bn in Q1 FY09 to Rs.3.5 bn in Q1 FY10
at an average interest cost of around 9.5%. The company has been sanctioned around Rs.650
crore of LC by banks at an interest cost of 7.5%.
• The EBIDTA margin declined 85 bps Y-o-Y to 11.1% in Q1 FY10, due to an increase in
erection & fabrication/sub contracting costs.
• The EBIT margin declined 98 bps Y-o-Y to 10.6%, on account of an increase in depreciation.
42
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
43
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
44
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Balance Sheet
(YE Mar 31st) (Rs. mn) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
LIABILITIES
Equity Capital 377 493 493 493 493
Reserves & Surplus 2,213 4,354 5,092 6,287 8,055
Preference Share Capital 130 104 0 0 0
Net Worth 2,720 4,952 5,586 6,781 8,549
Net Deferred tax liability/(Asset) 335 200 298 298 298
Loans 3,864 5,918 6,218 6,918 7,618
Capital Employed 6,919 11,070 12,102 13,997 16,465
ASSETS
Gross Block 4,676 5,213 6,255 7,055 7,855
Less: Depreciation 600 899 1,222 1,520 1,865
Net Block 4,076 4,314 5,032 5,534 5,990
Capital WIP 18 169 504 704 904
Investments in subsidiaries 205 0 0 0 0
Investments- Others 1 5 18 18 18
Total Investment 206 5 18 18 18
Others 49 20 10 10 10
Current Assets
Inventories 1,506 2,053 2,258 2,768 3,274
Sundry Debtors 9,041 14,300 18,510 21,825 26,538
Cash and Bank Balance 214 680 1,365 2,579 3,146
Loans and Advances 1,717 2,701 3,266 3,354 4,079
Total Current Assets 12,478 19,735 25,398 30,525 37,038
45
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
LIABILITIES
Equity Capital 5.4% 4.5% 4.1% 3.5% 3.0%
Reserves & Surplus 32.0% 39.3% 42.1% 44.9% 48.9%
Preference Share Capital 1.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net Worth 39.3% 44.7% 46.2% 48.4% 51.9%
Net Deferred tax liability/(Asset) 4.8% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8%
Loans 55.8% 53.5% 51.4% 49.4% 46.3%
Capital Employed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
ASSETS
Gross Block 67.6% 47.1% 51.7% 50.4% 47.7%
Less: Depreciation 8.7% 8.1% 10.1% 10.9% 11.3%
Net Block 58.9% 39.0% 41.6% 39.5% 36.4%
Capital WIP 0.3% 1.5% 4.2% 5.0% 5.5%
Investments in subsidiaries 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Investments- Others 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Total Investment 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Others 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Current Assets
Sundry Debtors 130.7% 129.2% 152.9% 155.9% 161.2%
Inventories 21.8% 18.5% 18.7% 19.8% 19.9%
Cash and Bank Balance 3.1% 6.1% 11.3% 18.4% 19.1%
Loans and Advances 24.8% 24.4% 27.0% 24.0% 24.8%
Total Current Assets 180.3% 178.3% 209.9% 218.1% 224.9%
46
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Adjustments
Diff.in Dep. (3) 48 96 0 0
CASH OUTFLOWS
Working Capital Changes
Inc/(Dec) in Provisions 233 171 (96) 125 274
Inc/(Dec) in Current Liabilities 273 3,094 5,783 3,809 4,426
Less:
Inc/(Dec) in Inventory 257 548 204 510 506
Inc in Debtors 2,238 5,259 4,210 3,315 4,714
Inc/(Dec) in Loans & Adv. 99 984 564 89 724
Inc/(Dec) in Working Capital 2,087 3,526 (709) (20) 1,244
Capex/Investments
Inc/(Dec) in Investments 1 (201) 13 0 0
Addition to Gross Block 177 537 1,042 800 800
Inc/(Dec) in Capital WIP (33) 151 335 200 200
Inc/(Dec) in other assets 33 (29) (10) 0 0
Inc/(Dec) in Fixed assets/ Investments 178 457 1,379 1,000 1,000
47
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Adjustments
Diff.in Dep. -0.2% 1.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
CASH OUTFLOWS
Capex/Investments
Inc/(Dec) in Investments 0.1% -4.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Addition to Gross Block 9.6% 12.1% 76.8% 36.5% 28.4%
Inc/(Dec) in Capital WIP -1.8% 3.4% 24.7% 9.1% 7.1%
Inc/(Dec) in other assets 1.8% -0.7% -0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Inc/(Dec) in Fixed assets/ Investments 9.7% 10.3% 101.7% 45.6% 35.6%
48
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
49
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
50
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
51
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Balance Sheet
(YE Mar 31st) (Rs. mn) FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
LIABILITIES
Equity Capital 265 265 265 265
Reserves & Surplus 7,566 8,433 9,671 11,282
Net Worth 7,831 8,698 9,936 11,547
Minority Interest 822 947 947 947
Net Deferred tax liability/(Asset) 210 206 206 206
Loans 4,467 9,451 10,081 11,131
Capital Employed 13,330 19,302 21,170 23,831
ASSETS
Gross Block 5,474 7,062 8,688 10,213
Less: Depreciation 1,178 1,731 2,356 3,071
Net Block 4,297 5,331 6,332 7,142
Capital WIP 80 1,133 407 381
Investments in subsidiaries 351 (0) (0) (0)
Investments- Others 5 5 5 5
Total Investment 356 5 5 5
Others 2,940 3,636 3,636 3,636
Current Assets
Inventories 2,677 3,270 4,113 5,175
Sundry Debtors 9,332 14,160 16,564 20,705
Cash and Bank Balance 1,085 583 871 398
Loans and Advances 1,996 3,424 2,818 3,427
Total Current Assets 15,090 21,436 24,366 29,704
52
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
LIABILITIES
Equity Capital 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1%
Reserves & Surplus 56.8% 43.7% 45.7% 47.3%
Net Worth 58.7% 45.1% 46.9% 48.5%
Minority Interest 6.2% 4.9% 4.5% 4.0%
Net Deferred tax liability/(Asset) 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9%
Loans 33.5% 49.0% 47.6% 46.7%
Capital Employed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
ASSETS
Gross Block 41.1% 36.6% 41.0% 42.9%
Less: Depreciation 8.8% 9.0% 11.1% 12.9%
Net Block 32.2% 27.6% 29.9% 30.0%
Capital WIP 0.6% 5.9% 1.9% 1.6%
Investments in subsidiaries 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Investment 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Others 22.1% 18.8% 17.2% 15.3%
Current Assets
Sundry Debtors 70.0% 73.4% 78.2% 86.9%
Inventories 20.1% 16.9% 19.4% 21.7%
Cash and Bank Balance 8.1% 3.0% 4.1% 1.7%
Loans and Advances 15.0% 17.7% 13.3% 14.4%
Total Current Assets 113.2% 111.1% 115.1% 124.6%
53
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Adjustments
Diff.in Dep. (26) (23) 0 (0)
CASH OUTFLOWS
Capex/Investments
Inc/(Dec) in Investments (1,036) (351) 0 0
Addition to Gross Block 1,559 1,587 1,626 1,525
Inc/(Dec) in Capital WIP 29 1,053 (726) (25)
Inc/(Dec) in other assets 1,109 696 0 0
Inc. in Misc. Assets 28 (12) 0 0
Inc/(Dec) in Fixed assets/ Investments 1,690 2,973 900 1,500
54
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Adjustments
Diff.in Dep. -1.0% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
CASH OUTFLOWS
Capex/Investments
Inc/(Dec) in Investments -41.8% -5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Addition to Gross Block 62.9% 24.3% 65.2% 45.2%
Inc/(Dec) in Capital WIP 1.2% 16.1% -29.1% -0.7%
Inc/(Dec) in other assets 44.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Inc. in Misc. Assets 1.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Inc/(Dec) in Fixed assets/ Investments 68.2% 45.6% 36.1% 44.4%
55
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
56
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
57
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
58
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Balance Sheet
(YE Mar 31st) (Rs. mn) FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E
LIABILITIES
Equity Capital 161 162 164 164 164
Reserves & Surplus 2,597 3,250 4,004 4,927 6,130
Net Worth 2,758 3,412 4,168 5,091 6,294
Net Deferred tax liability/(Asset) 77 81 82 218 218
Loans 1,595 2,249 3,036 3,436 3,676
Capital Employed 4,430 5,742 7,286 8,745 10,188
ASSETS
Gross Block 936 1,056 1,688 2,088 2,328
Less: Depreciation 375 440 521 667 833
Net Block 561 616 1,167 1,421 1,495
Capital WIP 2 28 52 152 212
Investments in subsidiaries 65 65 66 66 66
Investments- Others 120 94 165 165 165
Total Investment 185 160 231 231 231
Current Assets
Inventories 763 785 1,460 1,830 2,049
Sundry Debtors 3,635 4,988 6,548 7,251 9,598
Cash and Bank Balance 92 137 297 93 23
Loans and Advances 1,970 2,317 2,695 3,294 3,709
Total Current Assets 6,461 8,228 10,999 12,469 15,380
59
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
LIABILITIES
Equity Capital 3.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6%
Reserves & Surplus 58.6% 56.6% 55.0% 56.3% 60.2%
Net Worth 62.3% 59.4% 57.2% 58.2% 61.8%
Net Deferred tax liability/(Asset) 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 2.5% 2.1%
Loans 36.0% 39.2% 41.7% 39.3% 36.1%
Capital Employed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
ASSETS
Gross Block 21.1% 18.4% 23.2% 23.9% 22.9%
Less: Depreciation 8.5% 7.7% 7.2% 7.6% 8.2%
Net Block 12.7% 10.7% 16.0% 16.2% 14.7%
Capital WIP 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 1.7% 2.1%
Investments in subsidiaries 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6%
Investments- Others 2.7% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6%
Total Investment 4.2% 2.8% 3.2% 2.6% 2.3%
Current Assets
Sundry Debtors 82.1% 86.9% 89.9% 82.9% 94.2%
Inventories 17.2% 13.7% 20.0% 20.9% 20.1%
Cash and Bank Balance 2.1% 2.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Loans and Advances 44.5% 40.3% 37.0% 37.7% 36.4%
Total Current Assets 145.8% 143.3% 151.0% 142.6% 151.0%
60
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Adjustments
Diff.in Dep. (6) (2) (5) (0) 0
CASH OUTFLOWS
Capex/Investments
Inc/(Dec) in Investments 19 (25) 71 0 0
Addition to Gross Block 83 120 632 400 240
Inc/(Dec) in Capital WIP (13) 26 24 100 60
Inc. in Misc. Assets 23 (7) (5) 0 0
Inc/(Dec) in Fixed assets/ Investments 112 114 721 500 300
61
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Adjustments
Diff.in Dep. -0.4% -0.1% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
CASH OUTFLOWS
Capex/Investments
Inc/(Dec) in Investments 1.2% -1.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Addition to Gross Block 5.2% 8.7% 38.9% 24.9% 14.9%
Inc/(Dec) in Capital WIP -0.8% 1.9% 1.5% 6.2% 3.7%
Inc. in Misc. Assets 1.4% -0.5% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Inc/(Dec) in Fixed assets/ Investments 7.1% 8.3% 44.4% 31.1% 18.7%
62
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
63
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Price Target
Price targets (if any) are derived from a subjective and/or quantitative analysis of financial and non-
financial data of the concerned company using a combination of P/E, P/Sales, earnings growth,
discounted cash flow (DCF) and its stock price history.
The risk factor that may impede achievement of the price target/ investment thesis
are-
¾ Any change in Government Policies having impact on the Generation, Transmission or
Distribution or any other activities related to the Power Sector may have an impact on power
trading business activities.
¾ Extreme price movements in the steel and zinc prices effecting margins in adverse manner.
¾ Any Regulatory or other developments that could affect the sector in an adverse manner.
64
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
Positive Ratings
(i) Buy (B) – This rating means that we expect the stock price to move up and achieve our specified
price target, if any, over the specified time period.
(ii) Buy at Declines (BD) – This rating means that we expect the stock to provide a better (lower)
entry price and then move up and achieve our specified price target, if any, over the specified time
period.
(iii) Outperform (OP) – This is a relative rating, which means that we expect the stock price to
outperform the specified market/sector index over the specified time period.
Neutral Ratings
(i) Hold (H) – This rating means that we expect no substantial move in the stock price over the
specified time period.
(ii) Marketperform (MP) – This is a relative rating, which means that we expect the stock price to
perform in line with the performance of the specified market/sector index over the specified time
period.
Negative Ratings
(i) Sell (S) – This rating means that we expect the stock price to go down and achieve our specified
price target, if any, over the specified time period.
(ii) Sell into Strength (SS) – This rating means that we expect the stock to provide a better (higher)
exit price in the short term, by going up. Thereafter, we expect it to move down and achieve our
specified price target, if any, over the specified time period.
(iii) Underperform (UP) – This is a relative rating, which means that we expect the stock price to
underperform the specified market/sector index over the specified time period.
(iv) Avoid (A) – This rating means that the valuation concerns and/or the risks and uncertainties
related to the stock are such that we do not recommend considering the stock for investment
purposes.
65
FIRST GLOBAL www.firstglobal.in
India Research
FG Markets, Inc.
90 John Street, Suite 703,
New York, NY 10038
Dealing Desk (US):
Tel. No.: +1-212-227 6611
Email: us@fglobal.com
FIRST GLOBAL FIRST GLOBAL (UK) Ltd.
Nirmal, 6th Floor, Nariman Point, The Cobalt Building, 19-20, Noel Street,
Mumbai - 400 021, India. London W1F 8GW, United Kingdom
Dealing Desk (India): Dealing Desk (UK & Europe):
Tel. No.: +91-22-400 12 400 Tel. No.: +44-207-959 5300
Email: fgindiasales@bloomberg.net Email: uk@fglobal.com
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by First Global Securities Ltd. Information contained herein is based on data obtained
from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not
been verified by us, and we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute
only current opinions, which are subject to change. First Global does not undertake to advise you of changes in its opinion or information.
First Global and others associated with it may make markets or specialize in, have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies
mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies.
Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the facts stated and the opinions given are fair, neither First Global (UK) Limited nor FG
Markets, Inc. nor any of their affiliates shall be in any way responsible for its contents, nor do they accept any liability for any loss or damage
(including without limitation loss of profit) which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
First Global (or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries) or their officers, directors, analysts, employees, agents, independent contractors, or consultants
may have positions in securities or commodities referred to herein and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities or commodities. An
employee, analyst, officer, agent, independent contractor, a director, or a consultant of First Global, its affiliates, or its subsidiaries may serve as a
director for companies mentioned in this report.
First Global and its affiliates may, to the extent permitted under applicable law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately
following its publication, provided that we could not reasonably expect any such action to have a material effect on the price.
This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is
not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.
The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary. Where an
investment is denominated in a currency other than the investor's currency, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value,
price of, or income derived from the investment. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in
concert.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to
which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. There are risks inherent in international
investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange
rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities.
The value of investments and the income from them may vary and you may realize less than the sum invested. Part of the capital invested may be
used to pay that income. In the case of higher volatility investments, these may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and you may realize a
large loss equal to the amount invested. Some investments are not readily realizable and investors may have difficulty in selling or realizing the
investment or obtaining reliable information on the value or risks associated with the investment. Where a security is denominated in a currency
other than sterling (for UK investors) or dollar (for US investors), changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of the security
and the income thereon. The tax treatment of some of the investments mentioned above may change with future legislation. The investment or
investment service may not be suitable for all recipients of this publication and any doubts regarding this should be addressed to your broker.
While First Global has prepared this report, First Global (UK) Ltd. and FG Markets, Inc. is distributing the report in the UK & US and accept
responsibility for its contents. Any person receiving this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only
with a representative of First Global (UK) Ltd. or FG Markets, Inc.
First Global (UK) Limited is regulated by FSA and is a Member firm of the London Stock Exchange.
FG Markets, Inc. is regulated by SEC and is a member of The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and Securities Investor Protection
Corporation (SIPC). FG Markets, Inc., its affiliates, and its subsidiaries make no representation that the companies which issue securities which are
the subject of their research reports are in compliance with certain informational reporting requirements imposed by the Securities Exchange Act of
1934. Sales of securities covered by this report may be made only in those jurisdictions where the security is qualified for sale.
Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
This report may not be resold or redistributed without the prior written consent of First Global.
66