NE 130th St Infill Station

System Expansion Committee

February 13, 2020
 Goals for today

• Brief recap of January 9, 2020 SEC presentation

• Respond to Board questions
• Describe Committee options and actions
• Depending on the option recommended by the SEC,
proceed to ST Board action on Feb. 27th

2
 Overview and recap
• Timing in ST3 Plan - start 2024, open 2031.
Estimated 3400 daily boardings.

• Described challenges with building as infill

• Results of Preliminary Engineering -

integrated design is preferred

• Financial analysis of scenarios

• Options for Committee and Board

consideration
3
 Project cost estimate has increased (2018$)
Original ST3 estimate: $72M
Updated ST3 estimate: ~$174M (incl. $30M difficulty factor)
Updated estimate (early delivery ~2025): ~$144M
• Several factors contribute to higher estimates:
• ST3 estimate based on early LLE estimate, then available
• Market conditions
• Updated Design Criteria Manual requirements
• Better understanding of site constraints

4
 Financial impact (2017-2041 in 2018$)

Additional costs compared to ST3 Plan timing

Factor Early partial build Early full build
Capital Cost ($7M) ($30M)
O&M Cost $3M $8M
SOGR - $4M
Debt Service $11M $51M
Net Additional Costs ~$7M ~$33M

5
 Options for consideration
1. No further work, return to original ST3 Plan schedule
2. Advance incrementally
• Complete final design of entire project
• Complete construction of foundation/guideway and
platform/canopy packages
• Determine timing for final construction package
3. Advance fully, open ~2025
• Complete final design of entire project
• Complete construction of all packages
• Open ~2025

6
Option 1 – Original ST3 Plan
Return to ST3 Plan schedule
Re-start project in 2024
Complete and open by 2031

Effects
• Separate station structures
• Results in service disruption &
neighborhood impacts

7
Option 2 – Advance incrementally
• Feb 2020: Authorize final design and
Construction Packages
construction of & Estimates
Foundation & guideway: ~$XXM
Foundation/Guideway. Platform & canopy: ~$XXM
• Q2 2021: Authorize construction ofPlaza & finishes: ~$115M
Platform/Canopy. Consider
TOTAL: ~ $143M
schedule for Plaza/Finishes.
Effects
• Minimizes service &
neighborhood disruptions
• Integrated design
• Choices for timing of
plaza/finishes and
opening
8
Option 3 – Advance fully
• Feb 2020: Authorize final design, authorize construction of
Foundation/Guideway. Provide direction to complete the station
early and open in ~2025.
• Q2 2021: Authorize construction of Platform/Canopy and
Plaza/Finishes packages.
Effects
• Avoids most service &
neighborhood disruptions
2025
• Integrated design
• Open station early

9
 Summary
Comparison of options 1, 2 and 3
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Issue ST3 Plan Advance Advance fully
schedule incrementally
Integrated design No Yes Yes
Service disruption No Minimized Mostly avoided
addressed
Neighborhood No Minimized Mostly avoided
impact addressed
Open for service 2031 TBD ~2025

10
Service disruption and
neighborhood impacts
 Impacts of infill construction (ST3 plan timing)
Over 60k daily riders affected, nearly 90% from
Snohomish and North King subareas
• Potential system-wide delays could
affect many more riders
• Service delays due to single-tracking
• Restricted construction window –
nighttime construction and higher cost
• Repeated neighborhood impacts
• Mitigation expenses

12
 Choices and trade-offs
Assess impacts to riders, the local neighborhood and
to the project to inform approach
• Truncate one line at Northgate to set headways and minimize delays
• Single-tracking service
• Modify construction hours – evening/overnight/weekends
• Coordinate additional service with transit partners
Issue Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Service disruption addressed No Minimized Mostly
avoided
Neighborhood impact No Minimized Mostly
addressed avoided
13
Financial effects
 Early Full Build Impact on Debt Capacity
Change in Debt Capacity
$25 "Pinch point" -
Principal Balance - 130th ST3 Timing $6M or 0.2%
Principal Balance - 130th Early Full Build decrease in
Total Debt Capacity debt capacity
$20
Billions of YOE$

$15

$10

$5

$-
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

15
 Key Takeaways
• Change in debt capacity in pinch year is relatively small
• 0.2% ($6M) decrease in 2032 (pinch year)
• However, any decrease to capacity lessens agency’s
ability to respond to risks (recession, capital cost
increase, etc.)
• Many economic and other factors could have significant
impact on the financial capacity at any given time.
• Example: a small recession could consume the remaining capacity
which could lead to potential program adjustments within in a few
years.
16
 Near term recession scenario
Debt Capacity - Fall 2019 vs Scenario with Near Term Recession
$30
Principal Balance, Fall 2019 Forecast Fall 2019 Forecast
With Near Term
Principal Balance Forecast with Near Term Recession Recession
$25
Debt Capacity, Fall 2019 Forecast
Debt Capacity Forecast with Near Term Recession
$20
Billions of YOE$

$15

$10

$5

$-
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

17
Committee options and
actions
 Options for consideration

1. No further work now, return to original ST3 schedule

2. Advance incrementally
3. Advance fully, open ~2025

 Depending on the option recommended by the SEC, proceed

to ST Board action on Feb. 27th

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 Committee actions

Action 1: Choose Option 1, 2 or 3

• If Option 1 is chosen, no further actions

• If Option 2 or 3 is chosen, then proceed to actions 2 and 3

Action 2: Amend 2020 budget, authorize final design

Action 3: Approve limited funding authorization

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 Limited funding authorization
Allows 130th project to stay in sync with LLE
construction schedule

• Authorizes a total not-to-exceed amount of $20M

• Requires staff to report expenditures to CEO
• Final design for entire station
• Construction of first package (columns and guideway)
• Systems, construction services, 3rd party costs

21
Thank you.

soundtransit.org
 Summary
Comparison of options 1, 2 and 3
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Issue ST3 Plan Advance Advance fully
schedule incrementally
Integrated design No Yes Yes
Service disruption No Minimized Mostly avoided
addressed
Neighborhood No Minimized Mostly avoided
impact addressed
Open for service 2031 TBD ~2025

23
NE 130th Street Infill Station
Resolution No. R2020-01 and Motion No. M2020-14

2/13/2020
 Illustrative - Not to Scale
NE 130th STREET INFILL STATION: Authorized Project Allocation $6.8M
ALLOCATION
F/D & Construction $ COMMITMENTS
$6.8M

Dvt.
Pjt

25 Approved Today’s Action Future Action

 Illustrative - Not to Scale
NE 130th STREET INFILL STATION: Board Approves $22.1M Increase to
ALLOCATION $ COMMITMENTS
Construction Authorized Project Allocation (R2020-01)
Const.
F/D &
28.9M

Dvt.
Pjt

26 Approved Today’s Action Future Action

 Illustrative - Not to Scale
NE 130th STREET INFILL STATION: Board Approves $20M Increase to Contracts
ALLOCATION $ COMMITMENTS
Construction and Agreements (M2020-14)
Const.
F/D &
$28.9M

Dvt.
Pjt

27 Approved Today’s Action Future Action

Thank you.

soundtransit.org