Theory: How To Beat The Micro’s (2NL - 50NL)

by MonkE
December 19, 2008

Abstract
I wanted to make a very basic guide for beating microstakes poker
(originally posted this as a sort of 1k post on another forum). I would
have benefitted greatly from a strictly ABC guide to poker, concentrating
on postflop play. I never found it, and it took me a long time to figure
this stuff out, possibly because I’m somewhat dimwitted. I hope some of
you will benefit from my stupidity. I present this guide in all modesty: I
might be wrong about a lot of things, but I think if you think about the
concepts here, you should be well on your way to beating NL.
Please PM me with any remarks or examples. Maybe I can make a
second edition or so after a while. I’m sure I make some fundamental
mistakes, and that my examples aren’t always great. There’s spots where
I have doubts myself. I’m just trying to offer a framework for thinking
about when you should bet, and when you should check.
The advice here is pretty categoric sometimes. This is because I feel
that at the micro’s there’s no need to be fancy or to bet thin. Just try to
get your check/bet/fold decisions optimized, and don’t worry about being
“exploitable”, or “vanilla” or “weaktight”. Just try to make money to
move beyond 50NL. Also, please don’t tell me that all this advice sucks
at 100nl and above. I know this already.

1 What’s a valuebet? What isn’t?

You have heard a lot about valuebets (usually with the word “thin” in front of
it). You should be valuebetting a lot and very “thin”. But what is a valuebet?

Definition:
A valuebet is a bet that will be called by enough
worse hands to make it a profitable (+EV) move.
Example 1
You raise in MP with A♠Q♦, you get a call from the CO. Flop comes Q♠7♣3♥

Here, you will and should probably bet your entire PFR range (let’s say
AK-AT, all PP’s, all suited broadways and KQo+). But this is not a valuebet,

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because although you will be called by worse hands (this is the micro’s, they’ll
call with ATC, right?), there won’t be enough of them in villain’s range. There’s
hardly any draws that will peel here, there’s a lot of pocket pairs in villain’s
range that he will call with (and that beat us), and there’s even a lot of Ax
hands that beat us (AK,AQ, A7, A3).

Turn comes J♣.

Should you bet? Probably not at the micro’s (not sure myself tbh, but I’m
inclined to think not). At this point, there is no value whatsoever left in betting.
Again: there might be villains who will call here with TT-88, and even bottom
pair, and it’s easy to think: “I have second pair top kicker kicker, no way he has
a Q, I bet.” If that is what you regularly do, you have just found the reason
why you are not beating microstakes.

This is not a valuebet, because it will never be called by any hand that is
worse than yours. In fact, you are folding out every hand that is worse (because
they see the Q and the J on board, and they think: “no way my 77 is good
here”). A common expression is that at the microstakes, “you can just take
villains to valuetown”.

I used to think that this meant that I should just keep firing with any piece
of the board. It doesn’t. It just means that you should hardly ever bluff (which
is the opposite of a valuebet). It means that, as long as villain’s range can
reasonably have enough worse hands in it, you can usually keep betting without
being afraid that you will be outplayed. It means that, usually, you can go for
three streets of value with AT on a T hi board, as long as villain has a reason to
believe that his worse hand is good. Also because mostly, villains will announce
when they beat TPTK by raising the turn.

Ok, so we check the turn, and villain checks behind. River comes 5♥.

Can we valuebet? Yes.

By calling the flop but checking behind on the turn, villain let us know that
he has showdown value, but he’s not strong enough to valuebet himself. He
probably has some middle pocket pair, or A7 or something, or random air. By
not betting the turn ourselves, we have announced pretty clearly that we don’t
have a Q. Since we should bluff here fairly often, villain should call here with a
very wide range. KJ,JT,TT-88, maybe A7. Yes, he will sometimes have a set,
2P, AQ, or the gutshot straight with 64. Yes, he will fold his club draws and
all the backdoor draws like A5. But all in all, I think we can bet here for value,
because villain can and probably should call with enough worse hands to make
this a profitable bet.

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 Do we have to valuebet here? No. If you are not entirely sure of your han-
dreading skills, there is no need to valuebet here at the micro’s. This is a “thin”
valuebet, but there is enough profit to be made by making “fat” valuebets at
the micro’s.

Example 3
You raise in CO with Q♦T♦ , BTN calls. Flop comes 6♣T♠9♣

When we bet, villain can and should call with at least AT,KT,QT,JT,T9,T8,
club draws, open ended straight draws and maybe some gutshots with overcards
like KQ or so. Plus sets, two pairs, and made straights. Is this a valuebet? Yes.
I think it’s not even thin, although there’s obviously more hands that beat us
here than in example 1. You bet, villain calls.

Turn comes 8♥, so the board now looks 6♣T♠9♣8♥.

If we bet here, are there still worse hands in villains range that he will call
us with? This is already a lot thinner. He will probably still call with all his
TP hands (AT to T7, let’s say). Let’s assume his range was evenly distributed
between TP hands and draws (FD and SD’s). OESD’s now came in, he proba-
bly won’t continue with his gutshots with overs (KQ). But the chance is higher
that he had a FD than a SD, because there’s more club draw combinations than
combinations of QJ, and villain is somewhat less likely to call a bet with a mere
7x gutshot.

There’s only one TP hand we beat anymore (assuming he didn’t call with
T5 and under), and we beat only the FD’s. Nevertheless, a bet here could still
be a valuebet, but it will be thin. We bet to get value from FD’s and to prevent
FD’s from getting a free card (“bet for protection”). We will be forced to fold
if villain raises.

River comes Q♥ so the board now looks 6♣T♠9♣8♥Q♥.

We made two pair. What hands will still call us that we beat? The flush
draws will fold anyway to a bet. AT and KT will probably fold to any bet,
because it is so likely that we have either a J or a 7, based on our betting
pattern. It is also very likely that villain has a J or a 7 based on his play. He
would probably have raised a 2P like T9 on the flop, and T8 or 98 on the turn,
because microstakes players horribly overplay their 2P (it’s strong against TP,
but it gets outdrawn frequently, so they want to get the money in fast).

In short, there is NO value in a bet here, imo. This is the mistake most
micro players make: they will bet here, because 2P is a “strong hand”. It might
be, but not on this board, and not after how the play went. After they bet,
the donk will call with 75o or something, and they will say: “how is it possible
that this retard doesn’t put me on KJ or something?” Well, because he can’t

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handread.

Mind you: it’s not that he will not or can not call with worse hands. He
might call with AQ. But: is AQ still in his range often enough? It shouldn’t,
and you shouldn’t assume it still is. He might still call with T9/T8/98/T6o,
in fact it’s perfectly possible that he’s a retard that will call with T6. But not
often enough to make a bet here profitable.
I think this is probably the mistake I made when starting out. I was always
thinking: well, he could still call with (fill in theoretical hand that could indeed
call). This is not enough to make your bet a valuebet. Until you can narrow
ranges down accurately, it’s probably not a good idea to valuebet very thin. It’s
very macho to say “I valuebet thin here”. But if you’re not sure that you’re
actually valuebetting, you’re not valuebetting thin. You’re just giving money
away to the donks.

2 What’s a bluff ?
Definition:
A bluff is a bet that will get enough better hands to fold, or a bet
that will fold out a better hand often enough to make it a profitable
(+EV) move.

You should not be bluffing “thin” when you play microstakes NL. By this I
mean: talking yourself into a bluff because “he’s a complete donk if he doesn’t
fold TPTK here”. Most people cannot find the fold button if their life depended
on it in NL. Also, most people don’t handread well enough at NL to realise that
you are representing a strong hand. They think: I have a pair, so I will see a
showdown. Generally, good spots to bluff (let’s call them “fat bluffs”) will be
instantly recognisable.

Say you have 89o on a KT7ss board, and you are in position. Villain c-
bets and you call. Turn brings another flushcard, and villain shuts down. This
might be a good opportunity to bluff. Villain might have TP, 2P, second pair
or a better draw than you (QJ) that he’s willing to fold here. He might even
be weaktight enough to fold a set (NL players don’t like monotone boards).
Mind, he could also have complete air. But in general, a bluff here will fold
out *enough better* hands (especially if it’s backed up with a read that he has
weaktight tendencies) to make it profitable.

Before you bet, you should ask yourself: am I valuebetting, or bluffing? A

lot of the time if you’re a struggling NL player, you will have to admit that
you don’t really know. You just feel that you should keep betting, because not
betting is “weak”, and “this donk could have any piece of the board and he will
call with it”. This is why you’re not beating the micro’s. As a beginning player,
you should know exactly if you’re bluffing (and you shouldn’t do that often) or

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valuebetting (this is where your profit is).

So, when can you bluff? Only when villain has a range with hands that are
better than your hand. This is necessary to call your bet a bluff. Before you
bluff, then, you should

1. Know that villain actually has a better hand than you a lot of the time.
2. Know that the board and the action will convince him that your range ≥
his hand.
3. Know which better hands in his range you want to fold out.

If you are a beginning player and your handreading sucks, this is only pos-
sible when villain shows obvious weakness, and you have absolute air. In most
other case, when villain shows “a little bit of weakness” or is sending mixed
signals (checkraising the flop big but checking the turn for instance) and you
have a hand that’s “quite a lot better than air but quite a bit worse than the
nuts”, it’s probably better to check to see a cheap showdown. This is called
showdown value. Showdown value is your friend (see chapter 3).

If a bluff is designed to fold out better hands, it follows that at the micro’s,
you should almost never bluff in big pots. Why? Because there is a lot of money
already in the pot. This is only possible if villain has shown to you that he has
no intention of folding, because he feels his hand is strong. This means that his
range is probably made up of more nut type hands than air or marginal hands.

Also, there is a thing called pot odds that you probably know (I remember
knowing advanced concepts like “rangemerging” before actually grasping what
valuebetting was). The bigger the pot, the less scary a big bet is for villain,
because he has great actual pot odds, and almost no reversed implied odds,
because your stack is already partly or largely in the pot. You have no weapons
left.

The pots where you should bluff are the small ones, where you can feel
villains hesitation: “Am I behind or ahead? Is it worth it to call this for this
smallish pot?” Villains will talk themselves into folding small pots a lot more
often. Why? Because your stack is a weapon, and the pot is a shield. A
bet is more threatening when there’s lots of money behind: your weapon looks
dangerous compared to the shield. When the shield is big, your weapon doesn’t
look so scary.

3 What is “showdown value”?

Example 1 You are on the BTN and raise 74o (don’t do this obviously un-
til you know you can afford to) and you get a call from the BB. Flop comes

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K♠2♦2♥ Villain checks, you make a standard c-bet and get called.

Turn comes 4♥.

Villain checks. It’s probably best not to bet here. Why? Because paired
flops are hard to hit, and villain probably realizes this. Unfortunately, this also
goes for him. He did not show a lot of strenght by c/c’ing the flop c-bet instead
checkraising or leading it. He probably feels he has showdown value, but not a
great hand. Alternatively, he’s trapping and planning a checkraise. About the
only hands that we beat here are A hi and 33. The rest of his range are PP ≥
44 and Kx, 2x hands.

There’s just no point in putting money into the pot, because he probably
won’t call with the Ax hands or 33 (he’ll now sigh and say: “ok, he has a K”),
but I don’t think he’ll fold many better hands (maybe 55-77). So what hap-
pened on the turn? Our air hand just got showdown value against A-hi hands,
which makes up a lot of his range. You can’t bet for value here because your
hand is only marginally better than air, but you can’t bluff because you won’t
fold out better hands.

Definition:
You have showdown value when there’s a chance that your hand will
hold up at the showdown.
It’s usually used when you have nothing but showdown value, meaning that
you could be ahead or behind, but you can’t valuebet because no worse hand
will call, and you can’t bluff because no better hand will fold. We have show-
down value, so we try to see a cheap showdown. We check behind.

Suppose the turn came Q♦.

Villain checks. Bet this probably. Why? Because we have no showdown

value at all, but we can fold out hands like JJ-33. If you get called/raised here,
you can be sure that your hand is worthless. How worthless? Not sure.Now say
you bet the Q turn and the river is a 7 or a 4. Villain checks to us. Here you
either check back or bet. Mind you, if you check, it’s NOT because you have
SD value. It’s because you think villain will never fold. You are just letting go
of the hand, you have air now. If you bet, it’s because you think villain has a
weakish hand that he’s willing to fold (you are bluffing).

You are not checking for showdown value here, and you are never
betting for value!!

What I want to show is that showdown value on the turn is not necessarily
SD value on the river and vice versa. And that a bet on the turn with second

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pair doesn’t necessarily mean the same thing as a bet on the river. Again, you
should think very hard about why you are betting and why you are checking.

4 Piecing The Puzzle Together

This is by far the hardest part, but I’ll try to give you a decision tree that should
serve you well at the microstakes. Whenever you are faced with a decision, aks
yourself this question first:

1. Can I valuebet? If the answer is YES, proceed to valuebet.If the answer

is NO, ask yourself.
2. Do I have showdown value? If the answer is YES, you should probably
check (especially in position). If the answer is NO, ask yourself.
3. Do I have Fold Equity (can I fold out enough better hands than mine)?If
the answer is YES, you might (I SAID MIGHT ) consider bluffing. You
should be aware that bluffing is not a very useful tactic against calling
stations.

So the decision tree looks like this:

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5 General Rules At The Micro Stakes
You noticed that I didn’t mention raising. This is because I think that you can
probably AUTOFOLD every time a villain raises if you don’t hold the nuts or
the second nuts and still make 5PTBB+ at the micro’s.
Your objective should be to valuebet/valuebet/valueshove your good hands.
If you c-bet with air and you get called, you can probably give up, esp OOP.
No use “second barreling” or “third barreling with air” at the micros. No use
trying to put villain on AK when he checkraises you all in on a scary turn and

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you have an underpair. Just fold. Wait for the next hand, and bet/bet/shove.

Article TeX-ed by Styhn.