GLACIERS BEHAVIOR UNDER CLIMATE

CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE

IN PAKISTAN

Seminar proceedings held on June 4, 2008

Auditorium, P Block, Planning Commission

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE SECTION

PLANNING COMMISSION ISLAMABAD

i
ii
 Message from Deputy Chairman
Pakistan has been facing food shortages in the recent years, for which water scarcity is
one of the core reasons. The projected rising temperature and changing patterns of
rainfall by the Climate Change experts may lead to further reduction in fresh water
supply from the glaciers. This alarming situation demands immediate actions from all the
concerned organizations in an integrated fashion. At this moment, the step taken by the
Planning Commission to bring together all the major stakeholders on the subject of
glaciers’ behavior under climate change and its impacts on agriculture is timely. It is
expected that the stakeholders will strengthen their mutual coordination to devise a joint
strategy in order to estimate the impacts of climate change on glaciers, fresh water supply
and agriculture, and plan research-based adaptive and mitigation actions. The Planning
Commission will extend all possible support and facilitation in policy formulation and
investment interventions in this regard.

M. Salman Faruqui
Deputy Chairman
Planning Commission of Pakistan/Federal Minister

iii
iv
 Foreword
The issue of glaciers’ melting under climate change is emerging as one of the biggest
challenge for planners and managers of water resources and agriculture around the world.
Pakistan, being highly dependant for its irrigated agriculture on melt water originating
from large scale blue gold glaciers’ reserves, may be one of most climate change-affected
countries. Therefore, any changes in glaciers’ behavior will have direct impacts on
agriculture and food security in Pakistan. In the face of food crises, water scarcity and
environmental concerns, the subject of glaciers response to changing climate necessitates
immediate attention from all the concerned organizations. This background prompted the
need for bringing all major stakeholders together so that the knowledge and experiences
may be shared and coordinated for an integrated effort in future.

For this purpose, a seminar on glaciers’ behavior under climate change and its impacts on
agriculture in Pakistan was organized by the planning Commission Islamabad, which
provided an excellent opportunity to key stakeholders to present their on-going activities
and offer suggestions for future coarse of actions. Surprisingly, large scale activities were
found to be underway by different organizations but without any formal coordination.
Similarly, the data is not shared properly which may lead to duplication, contradiction
and waste of time on one hand and failure to formulate unified strategy on the other. That
is why the glaciers water budget (the difference between snow/ice accumulation and
melting) could not be determined so far.

This seminar is expected to provide a solid base for an integrated approach for the policy
makers, planners, managers, researchers and students. Although, the surface of glaciers
myth has been scratched by the Planning Commission by coordinating the major
stakeholders, more concerted efforts will be needed to understand, estimate, plan and
utilize glaciers water for irrigated agriculture to ensure sustainable food security in
Pakistan.

Dr. Kauser A. Malik

Member (F&A Section),
Planning Commission Islamabad

v
vi
 Editor’s note
Climate change is the most debated global issue, both politically and scientifically. The
Nobel peace prize 2007 award to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al
Gore (former US vice president) highlighted the importance and urgency of climate
change. In fact if every thing around us is changing so shall the climate. However, there
is a limit to climate change, beyond which the world may not be able to sustain further
economic growth. Before the closed end is reached, there is a need on all levels of society
to understand climate, the scale of change, the factors behind change and the impacts on
our environment and water resources. Pakistan’s dependence on glaciers to feed the Indus
river system, the lifeline of irrigated agriculture, demands immediate attention on climate
change and its possible impacts from all concerned quarters.

Nothing could be more appropriate than the right issue picked up at the right time by the
right person. Dr. Kauser A. Malik, Member (F&A) Planning Commission Islamabad,
discussed glaciers’ behavior under climate change with his friend Dr. Pervaiz Amir,
senior Economist Asianics Agro. Dev-Pakistan. Realizing the importance and urgency of
the subject, he decided to organize a one day seminar and bring together all the
stakeholders working on climate change, glaciers and agriculture.

The Planning Commission team under the leadership of Dr. Kauser A. Malik made this
seminar a successful event to coordinate the major stakeholders involved in large scale
activities on glaciers, climate change and irrigated agriculture. However, the contribution
from Mr. Mohammad Nawaz Khan, Senior Research Associate, needs special
acknowledgment for organizing the whole event and writing the draft report. Similarly
Mr. M. Bashir Khetran, Mr. Faisal Jameel, Mr. Faisal Anwar, Mr. Shafique-ur-Rehman
and officers from Food & Agriculture and Water Resources Section also shared their
valuable time to support this initiative. This report is likely to provide a foundation for an
integrated effort on glaciers’ study under climate change.

Naseer A. Gillani
Chief (Water Resource Section)

vii
 Acronyms
APN Asia Pacific Network
CUSEC Cubic Feet per Second
DCP Data Collection Platform
F&A Food and Agriculture
GCISC Global Change Impact Study Center
GCM Global Circulation Model
GLOF Glacial Lake Out-burst Flood
HKH Hindukush Karakuram Himalaya
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IPCC International Panel on Climate Change
IRS Indus River System
IRSA Indus River System Authority
MAF Million Acre Foot
m.a.s.l Meter Above Sea Level
NARC National Agriculture Research Institute
NIO National Institute of Oceanography
PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department
S&T Science and Technology
Sq.km Square Kilometer
SRA Senior Research Associate
SUPARCO Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission
TP Tibetan Plateau
UIB Upper Indus Basin
WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority
WMO World Meteorological Organization

viii
 Table of contents
Message from Deputy Chairman.................................................................................... iii
Foreword............................................................................................................................ v
Editor’s note .................................................................................................................... vii
Acronyms ........................................................................................................................ viii
Table of contents .............................................................................................................. ix
1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Aim ..................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Objectives ........................................................................................................... 2
1.4 Report outline...................................................................................................... 2
2 GLIMPSES OF PRESENTATIONS....................................................................... 3
2.1 Presentation by the Planning Commission ......................................................... 3
2.1.1 Main points ................................................................................................. 3
2.1.2 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 4
2.2 Presentation by Pakistan Meteorological Department........................................ 7
2.2.1 Main points ................................................................................................. 7
2.2.2 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 7
2.3 Presentation by SUPARCO .............................................................................. 10
2.3.1 Main points ............................................................................................... 10
2.3.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 11
2.4 Presentation by Asianics Agro Dev- Pakistan .................................................. 14
2.4.1 Main points ............................................................................................... 14
2.4.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 14
2.5 Presentation by GCISC (1) ............................................................................... 17
2.5.1 Main points ............................................................................................... 17
2.5.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 17
2.6 Presentation by GCISC (2) ............................................................................... 20
2.6.1 Main points ............................................................................................... 20
2.6.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 20
2.7 Presentation by WAPDA .................................................................................. 23
2.7.1 Main Points ............................................................................................... 23
2.7.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 24
2.8 Presentation by PAEC....................................................................................... 27
2.8.1 Main Points ............................................................................................... 27
2.8.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 27
2.9 Presentation by NARC...................................................................................... 30
2.9.1 Main Points ............................................................................................... 30
2.9.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 30
2.10 Presentation by NIO.......................................................................................... 33
2.10.1 Main Points ............................................................................................... 33
2.10.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 33
3 DISCUSSION .......................................................................................................... 36
3.1 Synopsis ............................................................................................................ 36
3.2 The way forward ............................................................................................... 37

ix
4 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 38
Annexure 1: List of presentations ................................................................................. 39
Annexure 2: List of participants.................................................................................... 40
Annexure 3: Map of the Indus Basin Irrigation System ............................................. 46
Annexure 4: Compact Disc of all presentations ........................................................... 47

x
1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background
Pakistan has one of the world’s largest glaciers reserves in the Karakuram-Hidukush-
Himalaya ranges. More than 65 % of the fresh water resources originate in these ranges
during summer and supply water to the Indus River System, the world’s largest irrigation
system. The irrigated land accounts for 84 % of the total 23.39 Million Hectares (Mha) of
cropped area (2006-07). Currently, the available water fell short of the existing irrigation,
leaving no scope for bringing further 3.8 Mha rain-fed and 8.33 Mha waste lands under
irrigation. This water scarce situation can turn into catastrophe if the melting of glaciers
reserves exceeds snowfall accumulation due to climate change. Thus any change, either
positive or negative, on glaciers water budget under climate change needs careful
estimation and future projection so that adaptation and mitigation strategies could be
formulated for sustainable use of water resources. At the moment large scale efforts are
underway on glaciers, climate change and its impacts on agriculture and environment by
different organizations. However, these efforts have not been properly linked together so
far, due to which an integrated framework for glaciers study and mitigation strategy could
not be established.

For this purpose, the Planning Commission organized a seminar on June 4, 2008 on
“Glaciers’ Behavior under Climate Change and its Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan”.
Overall 64 participants from 13 national and 9 international organizations participated in
the seminar. Ten presentations were made by key stakeholders on climate change,
glaciers melting, water resources, agriculture, sea level rise and impacts on coastal areas,
application of isotope hydrology, and other related aspects. The presentations were
followed by lengthy discussion. All the participants agreed that lack of data sharing, lack
of coordination among the stakeholders and the absence of a unified structure on glaciers
have been the major reasons for slow pace of work and contradictory statements on
glaciers water budget. The Planning Commission decided to compile all the presentations
in the form of a report so that to provide an integrated bench mark for further research

1
and action plan on glaciers’ response under climate change and its impacts on agriculture
in Pakistan

1.2 Aim
The aim of this report is to compile the proceedings of the seminar and present an
integrated picture of the knowledge and experience related to climate change, glaciers’
behavior and its impacts on agriculture in order to provide a bench mark for relevant
researchers, planners, managers and decision makers in Pakistan.

1.3 Objectives
The stated aim will be achieved through the following objectives:
• Highlighting the main points of each presentation
• Identifying the central theme of each presentation
• Highlighting the main points of discussion held during the seminar
• Presenting the way forward

1.4 Report outline

Section 2 highlights glimpses, main points and conclusion of all the presentations
delivered during the seminar. The major points of discussion and way forward are given
in Section 3. The conclusions are presented in Section 4. The original presentations are
compiled in the CD which is attached at the inner side of the last cover page.

2
2 GLIMPSES OF PRESENTATIONS
Overall ten presentations were made by the key stakeholders/organizations on various
aspects of glaciers, climate change, water resources and agriculture in Pakistan. The main
points, conclusion and key slides of each presentation are given in sections below.

2.1 Presentation by the Planning Commission

The presentation by the Planning Commission was delivered by Mr. Naseer Ahmad
Gillani (Chief Water Section) on “Glaciers’ behavior under climate change and its
impacts on agriculture in Pakistan”. The main points and conclusion are given in the
sections below.

2.1.1 Main points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• The Planning Commission has already included the assessment, monitoring,
modeling and devising an action plan on climate change impacts on glaciers in its
Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) 2005-10
• There is a need for identifying the cycle of climate change, variations in glaciers’
water budget, variations in water supply and demand and impacts on agriculture
and livestock
• The Planning Commission is interested to know; the total number of glaciers,
volume, boundaries, snow accumulation and melting and overall growth trend,
both temporally and spatially and the influence of all variables under different
scenarios; the relationship of monsoon rainfall in glaciated area, snow fall,
glaciers’ melt and river flow at selected gauge stations; the number of
organizations involved, experts, equipments, funds, objectives and achievements
made so far; and model based scenarios, analysis and action plan to utilize the
glaciers-melt water on sustainable basis for crop and livestock production and
other uses

3
2.1.2 Conclusion
The Planning Commission looks forward to know the on-going efforts in quantifiable
terms and facilitate research-based glacier water budgeting mechanism and integrated
action plans to sustain and improve water resources and food security in Pakistan.

P la n n ing C om m issio n
(M T D F )
•• AAsse
ssessm
ssmeenntt &&mmoonnitorin
itoringg of
of cclim
limaate
te ccha
hannggee
im p a c ts o n w ate r res o u rces
im p a c ts o n w ate r res o u rces

•• D
Deeve
velo
loppm
meenntt ooff M
Maath
theem
maatica
ticall m
mooddeelin
lingg

•• A
Actio
ctionn ppla
lann fo
forr ggla
laccie
iers
rs m
mon
onito
itorin
ringg

•• AActio
ctionn ppla
lann to
to eeva
valu
luaate
te ec
ecoonnoom
mic
ic im
imppacts
acts ooff
cclim
limaate
te cchhaannggee

33

4
 C lim a te C h a ng e , G la ciers &
A g ricu ltu re
•• P
Pooss
ssib
ible
le sce
scennaarios
rios fo
forr ch
chaannggee in
in clim
climaate
te

•• VVaaria
riatio
tionnss in
in W
W ate
aterr B
Baannkk B
Buuddggeett (T
(Thhee bbaala
lannce
ce
bbeetw
tweeeenn sn
snooww in
inccoom
mee &&m meeltin
ltingg eexp
xpeenndditu
iture
re))

•• CCoorre
rressppoonnddiningg va
varia
riatio
tionnss in
in w
wate
aterr ssuupp
pply
ly aanndd
nneett irrig a tio n w a te r d e m a n
irrig a tio n w a te r d e m a n d d

•• Im
Imppaacctt oonn A
Aggricu
ricultura
lturall &
& LLive
ivessto
tock
ck pprod
roduucctio
tionn

44

R ese a rch A ge n d a

•• SSnnoow w& & ice

ice co
coveverr oonn 2222000000 sq. sq. km
km bbeetw tweeeenn
33000000 & & 66000000 mm eeleva
levationtion
•• TThhee bboouunnddaarie
riess aanndd aaltitu
ltituddeess ooff inte
internrnaall ggla
laccie
iers
rs
•• TToota
tall nnuum
mbbeer,r, aare
reaa aanndd vo volulummee ooff gglacie
laciers rs
•• CClim
limaate te &
& ssnnoowwfafallll ddaata
ta inin ggla
laciate
ciatedd aarereaa
•• GGlalaccie
iers
rs tre
trenndd (incre
(increaassing ing oorr rece
receddin ingg))
•• RReelalatio
tionnsshhip
ip of
of ra
rainfa
infall,ll, ssnnooww/g/glac
lacie
iers
rs && aaltitu
ltituddee
•• MMoonnito
itorin
ringg sta
statio
tions,
ns, eeqquuip ipm
meennts,ts, eexp
xpeerts
rts

55

5
 R e se a rch A g e n d a (co n t..)
•• MMeeltin
ltingg ra
ratete ooff ggla
laccie
iers
rs (sp
(spaatia
tiallylly aanndd te
temmppoorarally)
lly)
•• AAnnnnuuaall ssnnoow w/g
/gla
laciers
ciers ccoonntrib
tributio
utionn to to
stre
streaam ms/rivers
s/rivers
•• AAnnnnuuaall ra
rain
infall
fall in
in the
the U Uppppeerr In
Inddus us gglacie
laciersrs
•• TTim
iminingg aanndd qquuaanntity
tity ooff RRuunnooffff in
in stre
streaam mss,, rive
rivers,
rs,
la
lakkees,
s, aaqquuife
ifers
rs atat vavario
riouuss sstatio
tationnss
•• OOvera
verallll im
imppaacts
cts oonn In Indduuss rive
riversrs ssyste
ystem m
•• PPooss
ssibible
le sce
scennaariosrios fo forr cclim
limaate
te cchhaannggee

66

R esearch A genda
•• W
W ate
aterr aava
vaila
ilabbility
ility sce
scennaario
rioss (tim
(timee && spa
space)
ce)
•• C
Changes
hanges in in tem
tempp and and Precip
Precipitation
itation pa
patterns
tterns
•• N
Neett Irriga
Irrigatio
tionn wwaaterter re
requ
quire
iremmeennts
ts in
in Ag
Agro-
ro-
clim
climatic
atic zones
zones
•• Im
Impa
pactscts on
on crop
crop ggro rowwing
ing peperio
riodd
•• Im
Impacts
pacts on on E Evapotranspira
vapotranspiration tion
•• Th
Thee yie
yield
ld re
respspononsese scen
scenaariorioss of
of cro
cropsps
•• Im
Impa
pactscts on
on w weett anandd aarid
rid aare
reas
as

77

6
2.2 Presentation by Pakistan Meteorological Department
This section outlines the presentation on “Melting Glaciers in Changing Climate” by Dr.
Qamar-uz-Zaman (Director General PMD), delivered by Dr. Ghulam Rasul (Chief
Meteorologist PMD). The main points and conclusion are given below.

2.2.1 Main points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• 14 Met. stations in Northern Pakistan
• Kabul river melt flow (during 15th to 30th June) has been increased from 30,000
cusecs in 2001 to 160,000 cusecs in 2005
• Indus river melt flow (during 15th to 30th June) has been increased from 150,000
cusecs in 2001 to 375,000 cusecs in 2005
• Total Himalaya glaciers are 5024 in 10 river basins of Pakistan
• There are 2419 glacial lakes, with 25 potentially dangerous for GLOF
• Gangotri glacier is retreating 3 times more at the end 20th century than the
previous average
• Liligo glacier is surged 2114 meters in last 24 years
• Sichen glacier retreated about 1.8 km in last 17 years
• The snow cover in Pakistan increases from Jan to March, decrease from March to
September and again increase from September to March (2007-08)
• Average snow cover in 2007 is 60,000 sq. km.

2.2.2 Conclusion
Most of the glaciers in Northern Pakistan are retreating which has been causing increased
flood in Indus and Kabul during the month of June (2001-2005).

7
 SSN
NOOW
WMMEELLTT FFLLO
OOOD
D IN
IN K
KAAB
BUULL R
RIV
IVEER
RDDU
URRIN G 1155TTHH –– 30
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UNNEE 2200
0055
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IN KKAB
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G 1155TTHH JJUUNNEE TTO
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180000
180000
200
20055
160000
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(inCusecs)

140000
140000
120000
120000
DISCHARGE(in
WATERDISCHARGE

100000
100000 2003
2003
80000
80000
60000 22002
002
60000
WATER

2004
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SSNNO TH TH
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MEELLTT FFLLO
OOODD IN
IN IN
INDDUUSS RRIV
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(AT TTAR
ARBBEELLA)
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FlO
FlOOODD IN
IN IN
INDDUUSS RRIVE
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(AT TTAR
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G 15T
15THH JU
JUNNEE TTO
O 30T
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40000
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2005
2005
Cusecs)
(inCusecs)

35000
3500000

30000
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22003
DISCHARGE(in

003
WATERDISCHARGE

25000
2500000
22002
002
20000
2000000
22001
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15000
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WATER

22004
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10000
1000000

5000
500000
In
Indduuss-2
-2000011
00
115- In
Indduuss-2
-2000022
5- 16
16-- 17-
17- 18-
18- 19-
19- 20-
20- 21-
21- 222-
2- 23
23-- 24-
24- 25-
25- 26-
26- 27-
27- 28-
28- 229-
9- 30
30--
0066 06
06 0606 06
06 06
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06 06
06 0066 06
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06 06
06 06
06 06
06 0066 06 In
06 Indduuss-2
-2000033
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Indduuss-2
-2000044
DDAT
ATEESS In
Indduuss-2
-2000055

8
P a kista n S n o w co ve r in 2 0 0 7 -0 8
Snow
Snow Cover
Cover of
of Norther
Norther Areas
Areas of
of Pakistan
Pakistan 2007-08
2007-08
160
160
140
140
120
120
Km2
x000Km2

100
100
80
80
Areax000

60
60
Area

40
40
20
20
00
JUN-07

DEC-07
OCT-07
JUL-07

FEB-08
FEB-07

SEP-07
JAN-07

JAN-08
APR-07
MAR-07

AUG-07

NOV-07

MAR-08
JUN-07

DEC-07
OCT-07
JUL-07

FEB-08
FEB-07

SEP-07
MAY-07
JAN-07

JAN-08
APR-07
MAR-07

AUG-07

NOV-07

MAR-08
MAY-07

Area
Area x000
x000 Km2
Km2 Months
Months

9
2.3 Presentation by SUPARCO
Mr. Imran Iqbal (Director SPARCENT) from Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere
Research Commission (SUPARCO) delivered presentation on “Glaciers Depletion in
Tibetan Plateau: Climate Change Perspective”. The main points of the presentation and
conclusion are given in the sections below.

2.3.1 Main points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• Tibetan Plateau (TP) is comprised of Himalaya, Karakuram, Mount Everest and
K2
• Tibetan Plateau has glacier area of 104, 850 sq.km
• Pakistan’s share in TP glaciers area is 16933 sq.km
• TP glaciers contribute 303.6 million cubic feet (0.007 MAF) 1 of annual water to
Yangtze, Yellow, Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and Irrawaddy rivers in Asia
• Glaciers in our region are retreating faster than any other in the world and may
disappear during the next century
• SUPARCO studied Batura, Biofo, Yazghil and Jutmau glaciers
• Batura glacier is 7500 m.a.s.l, feeding Hunza River, which flows from west to
East and fall into Indus. Snow / ice and ice free areas were observed as 98 and 25
sq.km in 1992 while in 2000 it accounted for 81 and 42 sq.km respectively
• Biofo glacier lies in Karakuram range in Baltistan. It feeds Barldu river which
falls in to Shigar River and ultimately in to the Indus river. Snow/ ice and ice free
areas were observed as 93.137 and 21.959 sq.km in 1992 while in 2000 it
accounted for 84.622 and 30.474 sq.km respectively.
• Yazghil glacier lies in Hipar Muztagh Karakuram range at 7324 m.a.s.l. Temporal
analysis indicate 1.18 sq.km decrease in area during 1992 and 2007
• Jutmau glacier lies in north of Hispar glacier in Karakuram range. It lost 6 sq.km
area during the period 1992-2007
• Snow covered area in Northern Pakistan on 10th May 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007
was observed as 57066, 68420, 59731 and 34820 sq.km respectively.

1
The figure seems to be too small. It may be 303.6 MAF rather than 303.6 MCF (comments by SRA)

10
2.3.2 Conclusion
The study conduced by SUPARCO on four glaciers (mentioned above) indicates a 9-17
% reduction in snow/ice area during the period 1992-2000. Also the snow cover in the
Northern areas decreased 49 % during the period 2005-2007 (May).

G
Glo
lobbal
al TTeem
mppeeratu
rature
re RRise
ise

99

11
 AAeerial
rial VVie
iew
w ooff PPart
art ooff G
Glacie
lacierr RReegio
gionn ooff Pakistan
Pakistan oonn
1155 MMay
ay 220006
06

2244

Im
Imag
agee ooff 2200 N
Noovem
vembbeerr 2200
0011 SShhow
owss BBhu
hhutan
tan G
hutan
utan Glacie
laciers
rs
turn
tu rneedd in
turn
turn into
to G
Glacial
lacial Lake
Lakess

CCourtesy:
ourtesy: AAm
merican
erican G
Geo
eoph
physica
ysicall U
Union
nion 2211

12
 SSnnoow
wccoovveerr CCoom
mppaaririso
sonn FFoorr 1100th
th M
Maayy 22000044,, 22000055,, 22000066 && 22000077

8800000000 6688442200
5577006666 5599773311

6600000000
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3344882200
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4400000000

2200000000

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22000044 22000055 22000066 22000077
Ye
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rs

3399

R
Recom
ecom m
m endations
endations
TTracking
racking and
and com
comparing
paring recent
recent and
and historical
historical changes
changes in
in the
the glaciers
glaciers
should
should be
be carried
carried out
out for:
for:

„
„ AAssessm
ssessment
ent of
of short
short // long-term
long-term trends
trends in in glacier
glacier activity
activity to
to
assess
assess wwater
ater supplies
supplies or
or causes
causes of
of glacial
glacial hazards
hazards
„
„ TTaking
aking appropriate
appropriate m measures
easures to
to control
control thethe em
emissions
issions of
of GGHHG G
gasses
gasses to
to mminim
inimize
ize the
the effect
effect of
of global
global wwarm
arming
ing
„
„ PPrevention
revention ofof deforestation
deforestation andand increase
increase plantations
plantations for
for CCO O22
sink
sink
„
„ TTaking
aking m
measures
easures to
to recycle
recycle dom
domestic
estic and
and industrial
industrial w waste
aste w
water
ater
„
„ E
Enforcem
nforcement
ent of
of w
water
ater conservation
conservation plan
plan

4477

13
2.4 Presentation by Asianics Agro Dev- Pakistan
Dr. Pervaiz Amir (Economist Asianics) delivered his presentation on “Glaciers Melt and
Agriculture: Are We Running against Time? Need for a Science-based Response”. The
sections below highlight main points of the presentation and conclusion.

2.4.1 Main points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• Rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1 CO in arid coastal, arid mountains and hyper
arid plains.
• 30 to 40 % decline is projected in precipitation with rising intensity in monsoon
• 0.5 -0.7 % increase in solar radiation over southern half of the country
• 5 % increase in Net Irrigation Water Requirements
• The time frame for glaciers melt is 45 years
• 40 to 50 % less water was available this year
• 62 % (74) districts are food deficit in terms of net availability
• The fate of glaciers can not be altered too much instead develop rain harvesting,
sea water utilization, ground water management, water conservation. Israel, Egypt
and Australia do not have glaciers but trendsetter in water management
• Invest in glacier monitoring in collaboration with international research agencies
• Science based response be given top priority, establish institution at Federal and
provincial levels.
• Strengthen capacity in water resource modeling
• Establishment of National Agriculture Commission

2.4.2 Conclusion
The projected decline of 40 % in precipitation and 5 % increase in net irrigation water
requirements will make Pakistan extremely food insecure, especially if glaciers reserves
diminish in next 45 years. To offset future existing and future shortages, water resources
shall be managed properly through modern irrigation techniques based on scientific
research and institutional collaboration at federal, provincial and international levels.

14
D
Dis
istrib
tribuutio
tionn ooff W
W aater
ter in
in M
Maain
in R
Rive
ivers
rs ooff P
Paakkista
istann
%
% SSeason
easonal
al D
Dom
omininan
antt
%
% of
of IR
IRSS D
Distribu
istribution
tion D
Dom
omin
inan
antt SSou
ource
rce in
in SSou
ou rce in
rce in
In
Inflow
flowss SSuum
mmmeerr W
Win inte
terr SSummm
uum
um mer
er W
Wininter
ter
(A
(Apprr--SSeepp)(O
)(Oct-
ct--M
ct
ct- Maar)
r)
W
Wininter
ter
Indus
Indus 4444 8866 1144 SSnnow
ow/G
/Glacial
lacial m
melt
elt RRain
ainfall
fall ++
BBaseflow
aseflow
W
Wininter
ter
SSnnow
ow/G
/Glacial
lacial m
melt
elt ++
CChenab
henab 1199 8833 1177
M
RRain
ainfall
fall ++
Mon
on soon
onsoon
soon
onsoon BBaseflow
aseflow
W
Wininter
ter
M
Main
ainly
ly SSnnow
ow m
melt
elt ++
Jhelum
Jhelum 1166 7788 2222 RRain
ainfall
fall ++
M on soon
onsoon
M on soon
onsoon BBaseflow
aseflow
W
Wininter
ter
K
Kabul
abul 1166 8822 1188 SSnnow
ow/G
/Glacial
lacial m
melt
elt RRain
ainfall
fall ++
BBaseflow
aseflow
O
Others
thers 55

33

So
Souurce:
rce: in
intern
ternet
et
C
C

15
 F e e d in g   u n d e r c lim a te   c h a n g e   a n d  
h ig h   fu e l  a n d  in p u t  c o s ts

AAggric
ricuultu
lture
re  aat t CC ro
rossss  ro
roaaddss

P o lic y   O p tio n s
•• In
Invveesst t inin  ggla
laccie ier r mmoonnitoitorinringg  aanndd  aallo lloccaate te  fufunnddss  aanndd  sseeeekk  
in
intetern
rnaatiotionnaal l ccoolla llabbooraratiotionn  ss uucchh  reresseeaarc rchh  isis  ccoosstlytly‐th
‐thin inkk  oouut‐st‐soouurc
rcin
ingg  
aass  aa  ta
tacctictic  wwith
ith  PP aakkisistatanni i ccoolla
llabboora ratio
tionn
•• PP la
lann  aaddaappta tatio
tionn  m meeaassuure ress  fofor r oovveera rall 
ll cclim
limaate te  cchhaannggee  aat t ggra rassss  rorooot t 
le
levveel l in
in  kkeeyy  hhoots tsppoots ts  wwithith  ss ccie
iennccee  bbaasseedd  re ressppoonnssee‐‐ ddisis aasste ter r ppla
lannnniningg  
bbee  ggiviveenn  totopp  pprioriority
rity, , eesstatabblislishh  aa  ininsstitu
titutiotionn  aat t FF eeddeeraral l aanndd  ppro rovvin
inccia
ial l 
le
levveelsls..
•• SS tre
trennggth theenn  ccaappaaccity ity  in
in  w waateter r reressoouurc rcee m  mooddeelin lingg  aat t sseevveera ral l 
in
insstitu
titutio
tionnss  aanndd  aalslsoo  ddeevveelo lopp  ccaappaaccity ity  fofor r in
inte
terprpreretatatiotionn  aanndd  
uunnddeers rsta tannddin ingg  aat t ppoolic
licyy  m maakkin ingg  le
levveell
•• RR ee‐‐ FF rara m e   a g ric u ltu re   th ro u g h   a n  EE m
m e   a g ric u ltu re   th ro u g h   a n meerg rgeennccyy  ““ NNaatio tionnaal l AA ggricricuultu
lture
re  
CC oom mm misisssio ionn””
•• MMaannyy  cclim limaate te  cchhaannggee  im im ppaaccts ts  w will 
ill hhaavvee  re reggioionnaal l im
im ppliclicaatio
tionnss  
sstre
trennggth theenn  th thee  re
resseeaarc rchh, , ppooliclicyy  aanndd  ddisisaasste ter r re
ressppoonnssee  lin linkkaaggeess
•• WW ithithoouut t ccrereaatintingg  CC hhaaooss! ! CC re reaate te  mmaassss  aaw waarerenneessss  in in  aa  pplalannnneedd  aanndd  
eeffe
ffecctiv
tivee  m maannnneerr

16
2.5 Presentation by GCISC (1)
Dr. Arshad Mohammad Khan, Executive Director of Global Changes Impact Study
Center (GCISC), delivered presentation on “Global Climate Change and its Implications
for Pakistan”. This section highlights the main points and conclusion of the presentation.

2.5.1 Main points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• 0.6 CO increase in average global temperature during the last century; (2005
warmest year followed by 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 etc.). Increase by 1.8 –
4.0 CO projected for the 21st Century
• Pakistan will face increased variability of Monsoon, more rapid recession of HKH
Glaciers threatening IRS Flows, reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to
frequent floods as a result of fast snow melting followed by increased risks of
droughts
• Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions
• Food insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity
• Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral
reefs and breeding grounds of fish
• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern
Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan
• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter
than in summer

2.5.2 Conclusion
The models, both global and regional, used for simulating future scenarios indicate
various degrees of rise in temperature and percentage change in precipitation at the end of
this century. Such projections will cause increase glaciers melting, floods during
monsoon followed by drought conditions in arid and semi-arid parts of the country.

17
 W
Waarm
rmes
estt 1122 yyea
ears:
rs:
22000055,, 220007
07,, 11999988,, 22000022,, 2200
0033,,
22000066,, 220004
04,, 22000011,, 11999977,, 1199
9955,,
22000000,, 119999
99

RRate o AAvera
veraggee G
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mpe
pera
ratu
ture
re OCC
O
ate of
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ange
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adee))
119999 99 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1144.38
.38
118850
50 –– 20
200055 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 00.0
.045
45 220000 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1144.40
00 .40
119995 95 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1144.48
.48
119905
05 –– 20
200055 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 00.0
.074
74 .. .
. ..
119955
55 –– 20
200055 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 00.1
.128
28 119998 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1144.57
98 .57
220007
07 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1144.60
.60
119980
80 –– 20
200055 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 00.1
.177
77 220005
05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1144.63
.63 33

G
GCCIS
ISCCA
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ctivitiess at
at aa G
G lan
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C
Capapacity
acity BBuilding/
uilding/ R
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ater RResou
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ata

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ssessment
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gricultu
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ater sector
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DDissem
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PProject
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1122

18
 PPro
roje
jeccte
tedd C
Cha
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in A
Ave
vera
raggee TTeem
mppeera
ratu
ture
re ooff N
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rn aanndd SSoouuthe
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FFor
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cenario,
ario, bas
based
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nsem
embble
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(G
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.0 °C
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in 210
21000))

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ased
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nseem
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GCCM Mss

(G
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2.8 °C
°C in
in 2100
2100))

2211

PPro
roje
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tedd C
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in A
Ave
vera
raggee PPre
reccipita
ipitatio
tionn ooff N
Noorth
rtheern
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thern
rn PPaakis
kista
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16
16
N eorie
S rt hse1rn P a k is t a n S eSrie
o su 2
t h ern P ak is t an
SN eorie
rt hse1rn P a k is t a n S eSrieou s t2h ern P ak is t an

12
12
(%
chnage(%

(C
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8
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Mss
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0
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-4
-4

-8
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199 0 s 20 20 s 2 0 50s 2080s
199 0 s 20 20 s 2 0 50s 2080s
PPeer rioioddss

(C
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BBased
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of 1177 G
GCCMMss

2233

19
2.6 Presentation by GCISC (2)
Mr. Ghazanfer Ali, Head Water Resource Section GCISC, delivered presentation on
“Glaciers’ Response to Climate Change and its Implications on Indus River Flows”. The
main points and conclusion are given below.

2.6.1 Main points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• 82 % flow in the Indus River occurs during Kharif season (April-September)
• Snow & glacier melt contributes more than 80% to IRS Flows
• Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to
three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers
recede (IPCC AR4 2007)
• Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of
Indus River lows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in reduction
in river flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years (World Bank
2006)
• Widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central
Karakuram in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers (Hewitt 2005)
• Annual Discharge of Indus River at Tarbela (1961-2005) decreased about 2.2
MAF
• Two projects, i.e., Pak-US S&T Cooperative Project and APN Project are in
progress under GCISC

2.6.2 Conclusion
Although, the projections indicate glaciers retreat in next 5 years, the Indus River flow
trend (1961-2005) indicates reduction in flow. However, the Indus River dependence on
glaciers melt necessitates scientific estimation of climate change impacts on seasonal and
annual flows.

20
 O n g o in g R e se a rc h in G C IS C
W a te r S e c tio n
¾ Im p le m e n ta tio n & Te s tin g o f D iffe re n t W ate rsh e d
M o d e ls fo r A p p lica tio n to IR S

¾ U se o f S e le cte d W a te rsh e d M o d e ls for

A ss e ssm e n t o f C lim a te C h a n g e (C C ) Im p a cts o n
IR S a n d its C o m p o n e n ts

¾ M o n ito rin g o f T e m p o ra l C h a n g e s in D im e n s io n o f
K a ra ko ra m G lacie rs U sin g G IS & R em o te
S e n s in g fo r A ss essing Im p a cts of C C o n W ate r
R e s o u rce s o f P a k ista n
7

O n g o in g R e s e a rch P ro je c ts o n G lac ier

M o n ito rin g

ƒ P a k-U S S & T C o o p e rative P ro je ct: C a p acity B uildin g a nd

C o lla bo ra tive R e se a rch fo r A sse ssing Im p act of C lim a te C h an g e on G lacie rs of
th e K a ra k o ra m H im ala ya (K a ra ko ram -Ic e P roject): 20 0 8 – 20 1 1

ƒ C o llab o ra tin g Ins titu tio ns :

• G C IS C (P a kista n )
• G L IM S (G lo b a l L a nd a nd Ic e M e a su re m e nt from S pa ce ) P ro je ct,
N e b ra ska U nive rsity & N A S A (U S A )

ƒ A P N P ro je ct: Im p acts o f G lo b a l C h a ng e on the D yn a m ic s of S n o w ,

G la cie rs an d R un o ff o ve r the H im a la ya n M o u n ta in s a n d th eir C o n s eq u en ce s fo r
H ig h lan d a n d D o w n s tre am R eg io ns: 20 0 8 – 20 1 0

ƒ P rinc ip a l In ve stig ator: D r. K e d a r L a l S h re sth a (N ep a l)

ƒ C o llab o ra tin g C o un tries :

ƒ C h in a , In dia , N ep a l, P akista n (G C IS C )

21

21
 T re n d in An n u a l in flow s o f In d u s a t K a la b a g h
y = 0.0395x + 88.285
Indus at Kalabagh Annual Inflows (1922-2001)
t : (0.677) (32.5)
140
120
Annual Inflows (MAF)

100
80
60
40
20
0
1922

1926

1930

1934

1938

1942

1946

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998
Ye ars

Change in Flows pe r de cade : (0.44 ± 0.65)%

˜ (0.395 ± 0.584) M AF

D a ta S o u rc e: Ind u s R iver S ys te m A u tho rity (IR S A )

31
31

T re n d in An n u a l in flo w s o f K a b u l a t N o w s h e ra
y = - 0 .1 1 7 6 x + 2 4 . 1 3 2
K a b u l a t N o w s h e ra A n n u a l In flo w s (1 9 6 1 -2 0 0 4 ) t : ( - 1 .9 6 ) ( 1 5 .5 )

40
35
A n n u al In flo w s (M A

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Y e ars

C h a n g e in F lo w s p e r d e c a d e : ( -5 .5 0 ± 2 .8 0 ) %
˜ ( - 1 .1 7 6 ± 0 .6 0 ) M A F

D a ta S o u rc e: In du s R ive r S ys te m A u th orit y (IR S A )

32
32

22
2.7 Presentation by WAPDA
Mr. Danyal Hashmi (Senior Engineer WAPDA) delivered presentation on “Glaciers and
Water Resources”. Main points and conclusion are given below.

2.7.1 Main Points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• Total 5000 glaciers in Indus River catchment
• Total ice reserve volume is 850 km3 (688 MAF)
• Active melting zone is between 3500 and 4800 m.a.s.l
• Snow and Glacier melt provides 70% water from UIB
• Eleven Important glaciers in the UIB
• Pakistan Snow & Ice Hydrology Project Phase-I (1985–1989) mainly focused on
Glaciers Accumulation , Movement, Ablation, Mass Balance and Snow-melt
Runoff
• Pakistan Snow & Ice Hydrology Project Phase-II (1991–1997) focused on
collection of hydro-meteorological data within an elevation range of 2500-5500
m.a.s.l in the mountain ranges of the HKH through 20 Automated Data Collection
Platforms (DCPs), installed in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB)
• The Meteor Burst Communication System (MBCS) was acquired and being used
for transmission of near real-time data from UIB DCPs to Forecasting Centre
Lahore. A Seasonal and 10-Daily flow forecasting system for River Indus at
Tarbela, River Jhelum at Mangla and River Kabul at Nowshera was developed
and forecasts are being issued regularly since 2004
• The main forecast recipients of this data include IRSA, PMD, Tarbela, Mangla
and Chasma Barrage Projects and WAPDA water wing
• Another study on Climate Change (1991), financed by US Environment
Protection Agency, carried out to assess social and environmental impacts of
CO2-induced climate change in the Indus River basin of Pakistan
• The Climate Change cannot be estimated in UIB region as the meteorological
stations network measuring these parameters is sparse and located in valley
bottom, and therefore influenced by local thermal effects.

23
 • Rising trend in summer flows of Indus (main) at Kachura in the Eastern
Karakoram
• Rising trend in River Chitral at Chitral in the Hindukush Region
• Falling Trend in the summer flows of River Hunza at Dainyour and River Gilgit
at Alam Bridge in the Western Karakoram

2.7.2 Conclusion
The summer flows in Indus and Chitral rivers presents a rising trend which indicate rising
glacier melting rate in the Eastern Karakuram and Hindukush regions, while the Hunza
and Gilgit rivers originating from Western Karakoram show a decline trend in summer
flows.

F acts ab ou t U IB G laciers
„ T here are m ore than 5000 glaciers in R iver
Indus catchm ent
„ T otal Ice R eserve E stim ate 850 K m 3 ( Q in , 2000 )
„ K arakoram G laciers w ith in P akistan covers an
area about 13000 K m 2 (M ercer, 1975)

„ T he largest 23 glaciers account for abo ut 60% of

the glacier area. (H ew
e w itt, 1985 )

„ T he glaciers are born w ithin an elevatio n zon e

of 5000 – 7000 m eters abo ve sea level.

24
 IM P O R T A N T G L A C IE R S O F U IB
S u rfa ce A re a L en g th
N am e
(K m 2 ) (K m )
S iac h e n 1 18 1 75
B alto ro 7 56 62
B iafo 6 27 68
B atu ra 2 90 60
H isp ar 6 22 53
C h o go Lu n ga m a 3 32 47
R im o 5 10 45
P an m a h 4 10 44
K h u rd o p in 2 80 41
B arp u 1 36 34
R ak h io t 32 14

25
 SW
SW E
E confirm
confirm atio
ation
atio
ationnn at
at SH
SH O
OGGR
RAAN
N

R
Recom
ecom m
men
enddation
ationss
ƒƒ TThere
here is
is aa nneed
eed for
for establishing
establishing an an institution
institution
wwhere
here aa research
research cancan bbee carried
carried out
out inin aa
scientific
scientific m m ann
anner
er to
to investigate
investigate in in to
to the
the w water
ater
resources
resources of of th
thee co
country
untry espespecially
ecially lyin
lyingg inin th
thee
co
cold
ld regions
regions of of PPakistan
akistan
ƒƒ WW ork
ork of
of WWA APPDDAA in
in Snow
Snow andand IceIce H
Hydrology
ydrology
should
should bbee expand
expanded ed
ƒƒ CCentre
entre ooff EExcellen
xcellencece fo
forr C
Coold
ld R
Region
egionss cancan bbee
established
established w within
ithin WWA APPDDA A..

26
2.8 Presentation by PAEC
Dr. Manzoor Ahmad Choudhry (Head Isotope Application Division PINSTECH)
delivered his presentation on “Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology and
Environmental Change Studies”. The main points and conclusion are given in sections
below.

2.8.1 Main Points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• Isotope are atoms of same atomic number but different atomic mass
• Isotopes can be used as tracer of finger prints of source, movement, recharge &
discharge rates, age, quality and transmissivity of aquifers and surface water
• Direct use of water isotopes to infer recent global change and groundwater dating
• Historical sea temperatures can be determined to an accuracy of about 0.4°C
• Measures of Paleo-climate Oxygen Isotopes and Ice Cores
• This technique facilitate quick monitoring of water bodies
• IAEA/WMO survey of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in precipitation since 1961
with 508 stations, over 250,000 meteorological and isotope data sets

2.8.2 Conclusion
Isotopes hydrology techniques can be very helpful to investigate effect of climate change
on glacier melt by using ice fingerprints. The technique can also be used to determine
source, age, movements, quality and dating of water resources by using water
fingerprints.

27
A
APPPPL
LIC
ICA
ATTIO
IONNSS O
OFF IS
ISOOT
TOOPPE
ETTE
ECCH
HNNIQ
IQ U
UEESS
•• RRech
echarge
arge m mech
echan
anism
ism of of grou
grounnddw water
ater (sou
(sources,
rces, area,
area,
rech arge ra te, altitu d e
rech arge ra te, altitu d e etc.)etc.)
•• GGrou
rounnddw water
ater DDatin
atingg
•• GGrou
rounnddw water
ater ppollu
ollution
tion anandd salin
salinization
ization
•• SSuurface
rface w water/grou
ater/grounndw dwater
ater relation
relationshship
ip an
andd
in
intercon
terconnnection
ection bbetw
etweeneen aqaquuifers:
ifers:
•• In
Investigation
vestigation of of geoth
geothermermal al resou
resources
rces
•• AAqquuifer
ifer PPara
arammeters
eters (v(velocity,
elocity, hhydydrau
raulic
lic con
condd.,.,
tran
transmsmissivity
issivity,, pporosity
orosity etc.)
etc.)
•• EEstim
stimation
ation ofof seep
seepage
age losses
losses from
from irrigation
irrigation chchan annnels
els
•• AAgricu
gricultu
lturere
•• CClim
limate
ate ch
chan
ange
ge stu
studdies
ies

28
 S tab le Isotop e T ech n iq u es for
D eterm in ing P ast C lim ates
•• to
to help
help determ
determin inee an
ancien
cientt tem
temperatu
peratures res an
andd
volu
volum meses of
of the
the icecap
icecapss
•• an
ancien
cientt sea
sea tem
tempperatu
eratures
res can
can bbee determ
determin ined
ed toto
an 18
an accu
accuracy
racy of of abou
aboutt 0.4°C
0.4°C (( O 18 O ofof Seashells)
Seashells)
•• aass sshheells
lls are
are pprerecip
cipita
itate
tedd,, th
thee 1188OOw will
ill bbee
eennric
richheedd in
in CCaaCCO O33 relativ
relativee to to wwaateterr th
thee
hhig
ighheerr th
thee te
tem
m ppera
eratuture
re,, th
thee lelessss th
thee
eennric
richhmm en
entt

C on clu sion s
ŠŠ Isotop
Isotopes es can
can hhelp
elp
in
investigate
vestigate effect
effect of
of
clim
climate
ate ch
change
ange (glacier
(glacier
m
melt)
elt) on
on wwater
ater resou
resources
rces
an
andd agricultu
agriculture re
ŠŠ B
Better
etter results
results can
can bbee
ob
obtain
tained
ed in
integrating
tegrating w with
ith
conven
conventional
tional tech
techniqu
niqueses

29
2.9 Presentation by NARC
Dr. Rakhshan Roohi (Principal Research Officer NARC) made a presentation on
“Glaciers Behavior under Climate Change”. The main points and conclusion are given in
sections below.

2.9.1 Main Points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• Inventory for glaciers river basins, glacial lakes has been designed
• The ice reserves for ten river basins is estimated as 2738 km3 (2218 MAF) tapped
in 5218 number of glaciers spread over glaciated area of 15040 sq.km
• There are 52 (out of 2420) potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Pakistan
• An average of 60 % reduction in the glaciated area of five selected glaciers is
estimated during the period 1964-2005 at the rate of 5.2 hectare per year
• However, the glacial lake area increased 64 % on an average during 1993-2005
for the same five selected glaciers
• Himalaya glaciated area is receding
• Karakuram glaciers are increasing
• Institutional collaboration and centralized data ware house is needed

2.9.2 Conclusion
The NARC has also developed glaciers’ inventory which will be the most valuable asset
for researchers and planners to understand, estimate and manage glaciers resources of
Pakistan. The main finding of the presentation was the overall retreating of glaciers in
Pakistan, except an increase in Karakuram glaciated area.

30
 Su
Summm
mary
ary of
of glacier
glacier in
inventory
ventory
BBasin
asinss BBaasin
sin A
Area
rea GGla
laciated
ciated N
No.o. of
of TTota
otall LLen
ength
gth Ice
Ice RReserv
eserves
es
(K m22))
(K m aarea
rea (K
(Kmm22)) G laciers
G laciers (K
(K m))
m (K
(Kmm33))
SSw
wat
at 1146
4656
56 2223
23.55
.55 2233
33 3330
30 112.2
2.222
C
Chhitra
itrall 1153
5322
22 19
1903
03.6
.677 5542
42 14
1416
16 2258
58.82
.82
G
Gilg
ilgitit 1140
4082
82 9968
68.10
.10 5585
85 11
1185
85 883.3
3.355
H
Huunza
nza 1163
6389
89 46
4677
77.3
.344 10
1050
50 29
2915
15 8808
08.79
.79
SShhiga
igarr 7738
3822 22
2240
40.0
.088 1194
94 8829
29 5581
81.27
.27
SShhyo
yokk 1102
0235
35 35
3547
47.8
.844 3372
72 10
1093
93 8891
91.80
.80
In
Indduuss 3325
2571
71 6688
88.00
.00 10
1098
98 10
1042
42 446.3
6.388
SShhin
ingo
go 4468
6800 36
36.9
.911 1172
72 1100
00 1.0
1.011
A
Astor
stor 4421
2144 6607
07.03
.03 5588
88 5549
49 447.9
7.933
JJhelu
helumm 9919
1988 1148
48.18
.18 3384
84 2258
58 6.9
6.944
TTota ll
otaJune 1128
28730
730.8
.8 15
15040
040.7
.700 52
5218
18 97
9718
18 227738
38.5
.511
4 th, 2 008
June 4 th, 2 008 R oohi
R oohi 8
8
112.94
2.94%% 883.35
3.35%% 1.6
1.69%
9% 2.04
2.04%%

LLooca
catio
tionn ooff SSeele
leccte
tedd G
Gla
lacie
ciers
rs aanndd LLaakkeess

A
Assto
torr R
River
iver bbaassin
in

LLaakkee_5
_5 LLaakkee_4
_4
LLaakkee_3
_3
LLaakkee_2 LLaakkee_1
_1
G
Gr_5
r_5 _2
G
Gr_4
r_4

G
Gr_3
r_3

G
Gr_2
r_2

JJhhelu
elummR
Rive
iverr bbasin
asin G
Gr_1
r_1
(K
(Kuunnhhar)
ar)
FFoolvi
lvi ggla
laccie
ierr

June
June 44th,
th, 22008
008 RRoohi
oohi 20
20
SP
SPOOTT XXSS im
imaaggee (1
(1stst Se
Sepp.. 20
2005)
05)

31
 T
Tren
rendd A
Analy
nalysis
sis of
of G
G lacier
lacier Ice
Ice R
Reserves
eserves

22.0
.0

km)
(cub. km) 11.5
.5
Reserves (cub.

11.0
.0
Reserves

00.5
.5

00.0
.0
11996600 11997700 11998800 11999900 22000000 22001100

Ic
Icee res ervesYe
reserves Yeaarr Trend
Trend line
line

June
June 44th,
th, 22008
008 RRoohi
oohi 28
28

W ay F orw ard
•• Institu
Institutional
tional C Collab
ollaborations
orations
•• DData
ata availab
availability
ility and
and accessib
accessibility
ility
•• CCen
entralized
tralized data
data w where
here house
house
•• DData
ata SStan
tandards
dards
•• HHig
ighh resolu
resolutio
tionn SSRRSS an
andd DDEEMM ddaatata
•• AAvailability
vailability ofof uuppddated
ated hhig
ighh resolu
resolution
tion
ddigital
igital top
topoo sh
sheets
eets
•• International
International C Collaborations…
ollaborations… … … ..
•• LLong
ong TTerm
erm CCoom mm mitm
itmen
entt

June
June 44th,
th, 22008
008 RRoohi
oohi 53
53

32
2.10 Presentation by NIO
Dr. M. M. Rabbani, Director General National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) made his
on “Sea Level Rise and its Impacts on Coastal Area”. The main points and conclusion are
given in sections below.

2.10.1 Main Points

Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation:
• The creation of Himalayas about 45 to 50 million years ago provided the
foundation for the Indus River System and Monsoon rains—the life giving source
of water for sub-continent
• The natural Hazards in the Indian ocean rim countries, including floods, cyclones,
storm surges, sea level rise, earthquakes, windstorms, and Tsunamis are mainly
caused by climatic and seismic factors
• Over the past 1,000 years and prior to the 20th century, the average global sea
level rise was of the order of 0.2 mm/yr.
• The rate of sea level rise climbed to about 1-2 mm/yr during the 20th century
This significant rate of rise in sea level is attributed to global warming
• IPCC predicted sea level rise (with current emission rate of greenhouse gases) 8-
20 cm by 2030, 21-71 cm by 2070 and 31-110 cm by 2100.
• The major impacts of sea level rise include inundation of wetlands and lowlands,
sea water intrusion and flooding of coastal population centers

2.10.2 Conclusion
Sea level rose faster in the last decade than the 20th century average. The rate and extent
of current sea level rise can only be resolved with research-based studies and longer
satellite time series techniques.

33
 115500

33.2
.2 m
mmm//yyeear
ar

110000

22.0
.0 m
mmm//yyeear
ar
5500
(mm)
ΔMSL(mm)

00.8
.8 m
mmm//yyeear
ar
ΔMSL

00

-50
-50
AAvveera
raggee R
Raate
te ~
~ 11.8
.8 m
mmm//yyeeaarr

-10
-1000
11888800 11990000 11992200 11994400 11996600 11998800 22000000
YYeeaarr
[C
[Chu
hurch
rch aanndd W
White
hite, , 2200
0066]]

34
 M
M arin
arinee D
Drive
rive,, C
Clifto
liftonn K
Kaara
racchhii

yy OObbserv
servation
ationss ooff seseaa lev
levelel ch
chananggee are
are coconnsisten
sistentt w withith
hhow
ow w wee exp
expect ect sea
sea lelevvel
el to
to resp
respon ondd inin aa w warm
armin ingg
clim
climaate.te.
yy Sea
Sea levlevel
el rose
rose faster
faster in in th
thee last
last ddecad
ecadee th thaann ththee 20th
20th
cen
centuturyry av
averaeragge.e.
yy WW hheth
etherer th
thee cucurren
rrentt rate
rate ofof rise
rise isis acce
accelera
leratin
tingg can
can on only
ly
bbee reso lv e d w ith lo n g er sate llite tim
reso lv e d w ith lo n g er sate llite tim e series. e series.
yy PPresen
resently tly,, ocean
ocean w warm
armin ingg,, m
meeltin
ltingg of
of m moouunntain
tain
gglaciers,
laciers, an andd m meeltin
ltingg ofof th
thee ppolar
olar iceice cap
capss areare
co
conntrib
tribuutin
tingg in in ro
rouugghhlyly eequ
quaall aammoouunnts ts to
to th
thee ob
observ
serveded
rise.
rise.
yy TThhee larg
largest
est uunncerta
certainintyty in
in fufutu
ture
re sea
sea lelevveell rise
rise
ppro
ro jectio n s is th e con trib u tio n o f G reenlan
jectio n s is th e con trib u tio n o f G reen landd an andd
A n tarctica.
A n tarctica.
yy MMananyy ooff th
thee rerem maain
ininingg qquuestion
estionss ab aboouutt sea
sea lelevveell rise
rise
can
can on only
ly bbee ananswswere
eredd w with
ith co
conntin
tinuueded satellite
satellite
mmeasu
easure remmen ents,ts, w
whhich
ich are
are inin seriou
seriouss je jeooppaardrdyy..

35
3 DISCUSSION
The synopsis of discussion and the way forward decided during the seminar is given in
sections to follow.

3.1 Synopsis
The major aspects highlighted during the discussion included climate change patterns as a
result of modeling different combinations of variables, boundaries, dimensions & water
budget of glaciers, Indus river flow trends, impacts on agriculture, water laws, need for
increasing storage reservoirs, capacity building of research institutions, the use of isotope
hydrology, mass awareness campaign, demand management, hydro-terrorism and climate
change impacts on microbiology, sea level, environment and economy

The scale of glacier volume, melting and growth could not be ascertained due to lack of
reasonable assessment and conflicting claims by different studies on Karakuram and
Himalaya. However, the climate change impacts appearing in the form of change in
temperature, glacial lakes formation, flooding and droughts have been recognized.

Almost all the participants unanimously agreed that lack of data accessibility, networking
and coordination among the relevant organizations are the major constraints to have an
integrated approach on the subject. Although 13 national and 9 international
organizations are currently involved in research and related activities on the subject, there
exists no significant linkage among them to accomplish this common mission. The
participants were informed that the initiative has already been taken by the Planning
Commission on assessment of data and networking system among water related
institutions which could be further strengthened by active contribution from the
stakeholders.

The participants were informed that there are international organizations including
universities working on glaciers in Nepal, China and elsewhere, which can be taken on
board to start a comprehensive study of glaciers in Pakistan. WAPDA may act as a focal
organization in this regard.

36
Water laws need to be reviewed in order to bring them in conformity with the current
water scarcity and quality issues and enlarge their capacity to accommodate future
scenarios under climate change.

The participants suggested that the Planning Commission may act as a focal organization
to facilitate structural arrangements for a unified strategy on climate change impacts on
glaciers, water resources and agriculture. The need for a common data bank was
highlighted by the participants.

3.2 The way forward

The following decisions were made at the end of the seminar:
I. The Planning Commission will convene a meeting of key stakeholders to devise
mechanism for a nationally integrated structure on the subject.
II. The establishment of a common data bank will be entrusted to a single key
organization, which will take input from all the stakeholders and will be
accessible to all of them including civil society
III. SUPARCO, WAPDA, Pakistan Meteorological Department, IUCN, ICIMOD and
FAO have voluntarily offered their services for providing researchers and other
facilities to strengthen institutional collaboration
IV. A small committee of legal experts and water professionals will be formed to
review the existing water laws in the context of current water related issues
V. WAPDA was requested to strengthen its activities on ice hydrology and
coordinate with Application of Isotope Hydrology wing of Pakistan Atomic
Energy Commission for using ice finger prints in the assessment of glaciers age,
movement and volume
VI. The Planning Commission will publish a report on the proceedings of the seminar
which would be the first integrated approach towards the subject of climate
change implications for glaciers in Pakistan

37
4 CONCLUSIONS
Although, the exact volume of ice/snow and budget (the difference between ice
accumulation and melting) of glaciers could not be ascertained due to contradictory
results presented during the seminar, the melting of glaciers in the Eastern Karakuram
and Hindukush regions have been indicating a rising trend. Similarly the Indus River
flow trend in summer shows a rising trend as well. Such results indicate clearly the
impact of rising temperature in the glaciated area of Pakistan. However, the sparse
network of data collection, lack of coordination and data sharing among the associated
organizations were found to be the major constraints in the reasonable assessment of
glaciers’ behavior and subsequent impacts on river flows and agriculture.

The seminar seems to be the beginning of a large scale coordinated efforts to understand,
estimate, plan and manage glaciers’ water budget, climate change variable, river flows
and impacts on agriculture. The long process may include proper estimation of
ice/snow/glaciers, rainfall in the lower parts of glaciated area, monsoon rainfall in the
Upper Indus Basin, the trend of climate variables like radiations, temperature,
precipitation and wind in the glaciated area and finally measurement of stream and river
flows at the end of glaciated area. After accurate field data is made available, the in-depth
analysis of whole cycle of climate variables, glaciers’ budget and river flows will result
in the identification of the existing trend of the whole cycle. Future projections with most
probable combinations of the variables (scenarios) will be simulated. Such projections
will be analyzed in the context of the net irrigation water demand for agriculture and
other uses of glacier melt water. This kind of comparisons will provide solid base for
policy formulation and strategic action plans to devise annual water budget for
agriculture and other uses to ensure effective and efficient use of the available fresh
water. Similarly mitigation and adaptation (management) strategies could also be
formulated for sustainable irrigated agriculture. Management of water resources will be
strengthened from supply as well as demand sides. The ultimate aim of glaciers water
assessment and management will be food security in Pakistan by ensuring optimum
quantity of water availability for agriculture.

38
 Annexure 1: List of presentations
S.No Name of Presenter
1 Mr. Naseer A. Gillani
2 Mr. Ghulam Rasul
3 Mr. Imran Iqbal
4 Mr. Pervaiz Amir
5 Dr. Arshad Mohammad
Khan
6 Mr. Ghazanfar Ali
7 Mr. Danyal Hashmi
8 Dr. Manzoor Ahmad
9 Dr. Rakhshan Rohi
10 Dr. M. M. Rabbani
Organization Name of presentation
Planning Glaciers’ Behavior under Climate Change and
Commission its Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan
PMD Melting Glaciers in Changing Climate
SUPARCO Glaciers Depletion in Tibetan Plateau Climate
Change Perspective
Asianics, Agro. Glaciers Melt and Agriculture: Are We Running
Dev-Pakistan Against Time? Need for a Science-based
Response
GCISC Global Climate Change and its Implications for
Pakistan
GCISC Glaciers’ Response to Climate Change and its
Implications on Indus River Flows
WAPDA Glaciers and Water Resources
PAEC Application of Isotope Techniques in
Hydrology and Environmental Change Studies
NARC Glaciers Behavior under Climate Change
NIO, Karachi Sea Level Rise and its impacts on coastal area
39
 Annexure 2: List of participants
Planning Commission

1. Dr. Kauser A. Malik

Member (Food & Agriculture Section)

2. Dr. Shaukat Hameed Khan

Member (Science & Technology Section)

3. Dr. Muhammad Jameel Khan

Advisor (Agriculture Planning)

4. Mr. Naseer A. Gillani

Chief (water Resources Section)

5. Dr. Yahya Ashraf

Chief (F&A Section)

6. Dr. Aurangzeb Khan

Chief (Environment Section)

7. Mr. Hamid Marwat

Chief (Forestry & Wildlife Section)

8. Dr. Aamir Irshad

Deputy Chief (F&A)

9. Mr. Saleem Iqbal

Assistant Chief (F&A)

10. Mr. Asif Khan

Assistant Chief (F&A)

11. Ms. Zaigham Habib

IWRM Specialist

12. Mr. Mohammad Hasim Leghari

Horticulture Specialist

13. Mr. Bashir Khethran

Senior Research Associate (NRM)

14. Mr. Mohammad Nawaz Khan

Senior Research Associate (WM/I)

40
15. Dr. Sajjad Rabbani
Livestock Specialist

16. Mr. Faisal Saeed

Bio Technology Specialist

17. Mr. Faisal Jamil

Research Associate

18. Mr. Faisal Anwar Malik

Research Associate

19. Ms. Ambreen Sultan

Research Associate

20. Mr. Shafiq-Ur-Rehman

Research Associate

21. Mr. Ali Amir Raza Bukhari

Research Associate

Min. of Water & Power

22. Mr. Zahir Shah Mohmand,

Joint Secretary (water),
Ministry of Water & Power,
Islamabad

23. Dr. M. Saddique,

General Manager,
Planning & Development, WAPDA House
Lahore

24. Mr. Danish Hashmi

Senior Engineer WAPDA
Lahore

Min. of Food, Agriculture & livestock

25. Mr. Abdul Karim Chaudry,

Director General, FWMC, MinFAL,
Islamabad

26. Mr. Abdul Rauf Chaudhry

Chief Agri. Policy
MinFAL, Islamabad

41
27. Dr. M. Aslam
CMC, MinFAL,
Islamabad

28. Dr. Rakhshan Rohi

Principal Scientific Officer, NARC,
Islamabad

29. Dr. M. Salim

Chief Scientist, PARC
Islamabad

Min. of Environment

30. Mr. Sadullah Ayaz

Head, CDM, Min. of Environment
Islamabad

31. Ms. Helga Ahmad

Environmentalist
Islamabad

Min. of Defence

32. Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry,

Director General, Pak. Met Department,
Islamabad

33. Dr. Ghulam Rasul

Chief Meteorologist, PMD
Islamabad

34. Mr. Syed Zuhair Bukhari

GM, SUPARCO
Islamabad

35. Mr. Rahmatullah Jilani

General Manager SUPARCO
Karachi

36. Mr. Imran Iqbal,

Director SPARCENT, SUPARCO
Islamabad

37. Mr. Ijaz Ahmad

SUPARCO, Islamabad

42
Min. of Science & Technology

38. Dr. M. M. Rabbani

Director General, NIO
Karachi

39. Dr. M. Ashraf

Chief Research (WM), PCRWR
Islamabad

Autonomous/Semi autonomous Organizations

40. Dr. Arshad Mohammad Khan

Executive Director, GCISC,
Islamabad

41. Mr. Ghazanfar Ali

Head Water Resources Section,
GCISC, Islamabad

42. Ms. Humera Sultan

Senior Scientific Officer
GCISC, Islamabad

43. Dr. Itrat Zehra

Director, Center of Excellence in
Marine Biology, University of Karachi,
Karachi

44. Dr. Manzoor Ahmad

Dy. Chief Engineer PAEC,
Islamabad

45. Dr. Niaz Ahmad

Principal Scientist, PAEC (PINSTECH)
Islamabad

Private Sector

46. Dr. Pervaiz Amir,

Senior Economist, Asianics Agro. Dev-Pak
Islamabad

47. Dr. Syed Mansoor Ali Shah

Advocate Supreme Court,
Lahore

43
International Organizations

48. Mr. Mahmood Akhtar Cheema

Head IUCN/AJK
Islamabad

49. Mr. Shehzad Ahmad

Program Officer, IUCN
Islamabad

50. Ms. Ambar Masud

Project Support Officer, UNDP
Islamabad

51. Dr. Ijaz Ahamad

Dy. Director General, WWF
Islamabad

52. Mr. Mahmood Ahmad

Senior UN Advisor
FAO, Islamabad

53. Mr. Abdul Hakim Khan

Director IWMI Pakistan
Lahore

54. Mr. Ali Tauqir Shaikh

Chief Executive, LEAD,
Islamabad

55. Ms. Hina Latia

General Manager
LEAD, Islamabad

56. Ms. Ayesha Shaukat

Coordinator Program Development
LEAD, Islamabad

57. Syed Arslan

Coordinator Special Project
LEAD, Islamabad

58. Ms. Dina Khan

Assistant Coordinator
LEAD, Islamabad

44
59. Ms. Sabeen Mahmood
Assistant Coordinator
LEAD, Islamabad

60. Dr. Chaudry Inayatullah

Regional coordinator ICIMOD,
Islamabad

61. Mr. Takao Kaibara

Representative, JICA
Islamabad

62. Mr. Sardar Muhammad Tariq

Chairman Pakistan Water Partnership
Islamabad

63. Mr. Karamat Ali

Program Coordinator, Pakistan Water Partnership
Islamabad

64. Sarfaraz M.
Research Officer, CGIAR
Lahore

45
Annexure 3: Map of the Indus Basin Irrigation System

46
Annexure 4: Compact Disc of all presentations

47
48