Country Forecast Mexico May 2019 Updater

Información de publicación: Country Forecast. Mexico ; New York , (May 2019).

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RESUMEN (ENGLISH)
Fact sheet Annual data 2018a Historical averages (%) 2014-18 Population (m) 130.8 Population growth 1.3 GDP
(US$ bn; market exchange rate) 1,223.9b Real GDP growth 2.6 GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) 2,521.0b
Real domestic demand growth 2.4 GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) 9,360 Inflation 4.1 GDP per head
(US$; purchasing power parity) 19,280 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -2.0 Exchange rate (av) Ps:US$ 19.2b
FDI inflows (% of GDP) 2.9 a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Actual. 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018a
2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b 2023b Monetary indicators Exchange rate Ps:US$ (av) 13.3 15.8 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.2
19.9 20.2 20.1 20.3 Exchange rate Ps:US$ (year-end) 14.7 17.2 20.7 19.8 19.7 19.5 20.3 19.9 20.7 21.3 Real
effective exchange rate (av) 109.2c 100.1c 86.8c 88.8c 88.5c 91.8 89.7 88.9 90.0 90.1 Real effective exchange rate
(av), PPI-based 86.7c 79.3c 70.3c 72.7c 73.4c 75.0 73.2 72.8 73.9 74.3 Purchasing power parity Ps:US$ (av) 8.05
8.33 8.68 9.04 9.34 9.64 9.76 10.05 10.36 10.78 Money supply (M2) growth (%) 8.2 6.5 13.3 9.4 5.4 17.0 3.8 9.0 8.9
10.5 Domestic credit growth (%) 6.0 12.9 18.9 4.6 5.2 -0.6 4.4 7.4 7.4 9.1 Commercial banks' prime rate (av; %) 3.6
3.4 4.7 7.3 8.1 8.3 7.5 6.8 5.7 5.7 Deposit rate (av; %) 0.8 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.3 3.4 2.5 1.8 0.8 0.8 Money market rate (av;
%) 3.5 3.3 4.5 7.1 8.0 8.1 7.3 6.6 5.5 5.5 Long-term bond yield (av; %) 3.3 3.5 4.6 7.1 8.1 7.7 6.3 5.8 6.3 6.5 a
Actual.b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a
2018a 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b 2023b The labour market (av) Labour force (m) 51.9 52.9 53.7 54.2 55.6 56.4
57.1 57.9 58.6 59.2 Labour force (% change) 0.3 1.9 1.5 1.0 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 Unemployment rate (%) 4.8 4.4
3.9 3.4 3.3c 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 Wage and price inflation (% except labour costs per hour) Consumer prices (av) 4.0
2.7 2.8 6.0 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 Consumer prices (year-end) 4.1 2.1 3.4 6.8 4.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 Producer prices
(av) 1.9 0.4 5.4 7.7 6.6 3.1 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 GDP deflator (av) 4.4 2.8 5.2 7.0 5.3 4.9 3.4 4.7 4.2 5.1 Private
consumption deflator (av) 4.2 2.9 4.2 5.6 4.0 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.2 5.4 Government consumption deflator (av) 4.7 5.3 3.0
5.4 4.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 Fixed investment deflator (av) 2.9 8.4 9.3 6.9 6.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 Average nominal
wages (av) 4.0 4.2 3.9c 4.7c 5.0c 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 Average real wages (av) 0.0 1.4 1.1c -1.3c 0.1c 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.4
1.0 Unit labour costs (Ps-based; av) -1.3 1.6 3.7 0.3c 1.0c 4.8 3.7 3.5 2.7 3.3 Unit labour costs (US$-based) -5.1 -
14.8 -11.9 -1.1c -0.6c 5.0 0.1 1.9 3.2 2.1 Labour costs per hour (Ps) 31.3 32.4 33.5c 35.0c 36.8c 38.7 40.4 42.2 43.9
45.9 Labour costs per hour (US$) 2.4 2.0 1.8c 1.9c 1.9c 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 a Actual.b Economist Intelligence Unit
forecasts.c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. The source for all forecast data, unless otherwise stated, is The
Economist Intelligence Unit Global data US GDP growth: OECD World trade growth: UN US consumer price
inflation: OECD Manufactures prices: UN Non-oil commodity prices: IMF Oil prices: dated Brent US$ 3-month
commercial paper rate: IFS US$ effective exchange rate: IFS; nominal weighted index, 1990=100 Domestic data
GDP per head: US$ GDP divided by population Public-sector balance:

TEXTO COMPLETO
Country forecast overview: Highlights
The president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the left-wing Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) has
enjoyed broad popularity in his first months in office. Morena and its allies have comfortable majorities in
Congress, the first time since the late 1990s that the executive will be able to count on the legislature to implement
its agenda. Governability will be strong, at least until the mid-term elections in 2021. Constitutional amendments
will be trickier, however, taming more radical changes.
Mr López Obrador has promised to boost public investment and social programmes while maintaining fiscal
discipline, which could prove difficult to achieve. Despite riding high in the polls, he will struggle to meet

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expectations that he will combat social ills, including crime, corruption and poverty.
A deal last September to revamp the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA, now rebranded as the US-
Mexico-Canada Agreement) reduces uncertainty over trade relations with the US. However, concerns about the
economic policies of the López Obrador administration will weigh on business confidence. Assuming that
pragmatism prevails, GDP growth should hold up relatively well, albeit easing as the US economy slows in 2020.
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects growth to accelerate to 2.5% on average in 2021-23 as domestic and
external conditions improve.
The success of structural reforms of recent years will be hampered by weak institutional effectiveness and Mr
López Obrador's resistance to many measures, particularly education reform. However, the president has
moderated his previous opposition to an energy reform from 2014 and is unlikely to rescind contracts with oil
companies that have won exploration tenders since then.
Mexico is undergoing a demographic boom, but the benefits from this will be limited by poor levels of education
and the fact that a high proportion of the labour force (almost 60%) is employed in informal, low-productivity jobs.
The consumer market boasts an expanding middle class and fairly high income levels compared with regional
peers. High levels of inequality and poverty stymie consumer demand, but the next government will boost social
spending.
Mexico will seek to diversify export markets, but its fortunes will stay tied to the US. Foreign direct investment
(FDI) will grow as energy and telecommunications reforms become established. Despite US efforts to reduce the
outsourcing of jobs to Mexico, the country will remain attractive, owing to low wages, a large internal market,
privileged access to the US market and a network of free-trade agreements.

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Agrande esta imagen.
Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Key indicators 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Real GDP growth (%) 2.0 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.6

Consumer price inflation (%) 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5

NFPS balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -2.3 -2.5 -2.4 -2.0 -2.0

Current-account balance (% of GDP) -1.8 -1.7 -2.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.7

Lending rate (%) 8.1 8.3 7.5 6.8 5.7 5.7

Money market rate (av; %) 8.0 8.1 7.3 6.6 5.5 5.5

Exchange rate Ps:US$ (av) 19.2 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.1 20.3

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

               

Value of indexa     Global rankb     Regional rankc  

2014-18 2019-23   2014-18 2019-23   2014-18 2019-23

6.56 6.66   39 41   2 2

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a
Out of 10.bOut of 82 countries. c Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Mexico falls in the global rankings for 2019-23, owing to faster progress by other countries. Nonetheless, advances
are expected in tackling constraints to competitiveness, such as an unwieldy tax system, poor infrastructure and
powerful monopolies. Integration into North American supply chains, a network of free-trade agreements and a
sizeable population are key advantages.
Country forecast overview: Mexico's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
2019-20: Enforcement of competition policy continues to face stumbling blocks, despite improvements to
legislation. The administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador will court business, but confidence will be weak.
2021-23: Efforts to improve competition will continue to face challenges.
Policy towards foreign investment
2019-20: Better terms offered to public-private partnerships, but hiatus in oil bloc auctions slows investment in
energy.
2021-23: Focus on promoting automotive, aerospace and other high-value-added sectors. Stronger investment
links with Asia and Latin America encourage diversification of foreign direct investment (FDI) sources.
Foreign trade and exchange controls
2019-20: US continues to dominate trade flows, despite steps to diversify trade partners. The rebranded US-
Mexico-Canada Agreement replaces the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), with moderately adverse
outcomes for Mexico.
2021-23: Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership in force, but little progress made on other free-
trade agreements (FTAs). Greater investment by China facilitates continued export growth.
Taxes
2019-20: Limitations of fiscal reform and still-low oil revenue compared with pre-2014 levels could lead federal
government to consider further fiscal measures.
2021-23: Possible cuts in personal income-tax rates and corporate taxes for small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs).
Financing
2019-20Access to financing for SMEs improves as banking sector reform expands financing and bank
competition.
2021-23: Market for debt and equity issues grows more strongly, owing to expansion of investment portfolios and
as private pension funds exploit greater investment flexibility. Development bank sector expands, owing to banking
reform.
The labour market
2019-20: Efforts to reduce labour informality continue, but progress will be slow. New labour reform increases
collective bargaining and strengthens unions.
2021-23: Labour market continues to struggle as a result of low wages and poor worker protection.
Infrastructure
2019-20: New government seeks infrastructure upgrades, but fiscal limits create hurdles.
2021-23: Private participation in energy sector shows benefits. Government seeks financing for infrastructure
investment.
Technological readiness
2019-20: Advanced 4G and 5G mobile connectivity expands rapidly, from rate for 4G of 50% of mobile connections
in 2017.
2021-23: Number of internet users exceeds 100m, increasing opportunities.
Fact sheet

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 Annual data 2018a Historical averages (%) 2014-18

Population (m) 130.8 Population growth 1.3

GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) 1,223.9b Real GDP growth 2.6

GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) 2,521.0b Real domestic demand growth 2.4

GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) 9,360 Inflation 4.1

GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) 19,280 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -2.0

Exchange rate (av) Ps:US$ 19.2b FDI inflows (% of GDP) 2.9

a
Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. bActual.
Background: From 1929 to 2000 Mexico was governed by the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), which
shifted from its nationalist, interventionist origins towards free-market policies and economic liberalisation. The
presidential victory in 2000 of the centre-right Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) marked a transition to democratic
pluralism, but political effectiveness was hindered by a divided legislature and slow progress on structural reform.
Sluggish growth and soaring violent crime contributed to the PRI returning to power in December 2012. But
ongoing domestic discontent delivered a landmark victory for the left-wing Andrés Manuel López Obrador at
presidential and legislative elections in 2018.
Political structure: The political system is presidential, bicameral and federal (there are 31 states plus a federal
entity covering the capital, Mexico City). Presidential terms are six years, without the possibility of re-election.
Under the transition to democratic pluralism, the centre of political power has shifted away from the executive
towards the legislature and local governments. A recent political reform lifted a ban on re-election for legislators
and mayors, and created a single electoral institute that is expected to improve political effectiveness and reduce
the irregularities that mar state and local elections. Independent presidential candidates were allowed to run for
the first time in the 2018 elections, but they made little impact. Mr López Obrador intends to use public
consultations for some proposals.
Policy issues: Conservative fiscal and monetary policies underpin macroeconomic stability, but a weak non-oil
fiscal revenue base and shallow credit markets leave policymakers with few tools to boost demand. The previous
government implemented structural reforms in 2013-14, including in energy, education and telecoms. Mr López
Obrador plans to reverse the education reform (eliminating teacher evaluations) but keep the others, albeit
prioritising oil self-sufficiency and building a refinery. Growth constraints include lack of internal competition, a
deficient education system, institutional flaws resulting in corruption across all levels of government and high
crime levels.
Taxation: The corporate tax rate stands at 30%, and the top rate of personal income tax is 35%. The royalties tax
rate ranges from 15% to 34%. Depreciation allowances stretch from 5% to 25%, but can be up to 50% on pollution-
control equipment. The value-added tax (VAT) rate is 16%; food products and medicines are exempt, although a
junk food tax exists for products with high calorific content. Additional changes to various tax regimes, which
affect conglomerates and maquila (domestic assembly for re-export) firms, have come into effect since 2014.
Foreign trade: Import duties range from zero to 35%, with the trade-weighted average tariff at 2.9%. VAT is levied at
16% on imports. Exports totalled US$450.9bn in 2018, and imports came to US$464.8bn, yielding a trade deficit of
US$13.9bn.The current-account deficit is estimated at 1.7% of GDP.

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 Major exports 2018 % of total Major imports 2018 % of total

Manufactured goods 88.2 Intermediate goods 76.5

Oil 6.8 Capital goods 9.9

Agricultural products 3.6 Consumer goods 13.6

Mining products 1.4    

       

Leading markets 2018 % of total Leading suppliers 2018 % of total

US 79.5 US 49.3

Canada 3.1 China 19.1

China 1.6 Japan 4.2

Germany 1.6 Germany 4.1

Outlook for 2019-23: Political stability

Since taking office in December 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the leftist Movimiento Regeneración
Nacional (Morena) has focused on delivering on campaign promises to be a "transformational" president, vowing
to institute a more responsive style of governance and to eradicate many of Mexico's long-standing ills, such as
corruption, inequality and high levels of violence. To that end, he has instituted popular steps such as combating
fuel theft (known locally as huachicol); introduced a 16% hike to the minimum wage; instituted a reduction in
government salaries (including his own); and overseen the creation of a national guard to combat drug-trafficking.
Voters have so far been impressed: in an April poll by a local newspaper, El Financiero, 78% of respondents
expressed approval. This is in contrast to business confidence, which is suffering from concerns over a weaker
environment for private enterprise.
Mr López Obrador is supported by majorities in both houses of Congress held by the Juntos Haremos Historia
coalition (which includes Morena and a number of smaller, ideologically diverse parties). The coalition's numbers
are bolstered by the unofficial support of other small parties. This gives Juntos Haremos Historia a simple majority
in Congress, the first enjoyed by a single movement in both houses since 1997. Nevertheless, the coalition is short
of the two-thirds majority needed to pass constitutional reform, which will limit the ability of Mr López Obrador to
pass more controversial aspects of his platform, including overturning some of the structural reforms
implemented by the previous Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) government. Mr López Obrador's agenda
will also face resistance from powerful state governors (Morena and allied parties hold the governorships of just
five of Mexico's 32 federal entities).
In his drive to introduce a more participatory style of governance, Mr López Obrador has submitted several of his
campaign pledges to public consultation, a tactic that he used to gauge the public pulse during his time as mayor
of the capital, Mexico City (2000-05). These have proven controversial, particularly with the private sector, none
more so than his decision to cancel a US$13bn airport project outside Mexico City after voters (totalling only
around 1% of the electoral roll) rejected the project in a Morena-sponsored, unofficial popular consultation. The

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president has since held two consultations (one 10-point referendum that included building a new oil refinery in the
state of Tabasco, and a tourist train in Yucatán, and the other on the construction of a thermoelectric project in
Morelos). Mr López Obrador said that he will continue to use such consultations, raising concerns of more erratic
policymaking than in the past.
Despite some early successes in delivering campaign promises, Mr López Obrador will struggle to address voters'
high expectations for change: the El Financiero poll showed that, of those who support the president, 52% do so for
what he has done, and 47% for what they hope he will do. Even with his strong mandate and congressional
majority, Mr López Obrador will struggle to address the country's intractable problems, and governability will be
complicated by tepid economic growth, widespread poverty and income inequality, as well as fiscal constraints
due to still-weak oil income. Mr López Obrador's security strategy seeks to address the social causes of violent
crime-including poverty, unemployment and prison conditions-in addition to continuing the fight against organised
crime groups, but The Economist Intelligence Unit does not anticipate a significant reduction in violence in the
forecast period.
Outlook for 2019-23: Election watch
The next elections-congressional, provincial and municipal polls-will take place in 2021. The outcome of these will
largely depend on the success of Mr López Obrador's first three years in office, and whether traditional parties
such as the PRI and centre-right Partido Acción Nacional (PAN)-which both suffered heavy losses in last year's
election-are able to rehabilitate their image, or if anti-incumbency sentiment leads to further breakdown of the
traditional party structure.
Outlook for 2019-23: International relations
Foreign policy has taken a back seat to domestic policy under Mr López Obrador, who has put less emphasis on
Mexico's global role. The administration will seek to remain on cordial terms with the US, Mexico's dominant trade
and investment partner, and home to more than 33m people of Mexican descent. The renegotiation of the North
American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) last year, resulting in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA),
yielded some concessions to US demands (including stricter rules of origin in the automotive industry), while
retaining the spirit of the original agreement. The agreement was signed by the presidents of the three countries in
November 2018, and must now be approved by the three countries' respective Congresses (we assume that they
will). Notwithstanding the deal and initial favourable overtures to each other from the US and Mexican presidents,
the nationalist impulses of both Mr López Obrador and Donald Trump will sustain the risk of sporadic spats over
sensitive issues, such as Mr Trump's determination to build a border wall and tighten restrictions on immigration.
This is bound to feature prominently in the run-up to Mr Trump's probable re-election bid.
Recent events have shown that Mr López Obrador will commit Mexico to its historical policy of non-intervention in
foreign affairs; Mexico has refused to join efforts to repudiate the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela, in marked
contrast to most other governments in the hemisphere; the government instead encourages dialogue. Mr López
Obrador will maintain ties with the Pacific Alliance, comprising Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico, and with
Mercosur, the Southern Cone customs union. In March Mexico, along with ten other countries, signed the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a follow-up agreement to the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), from which the US withdrew in 2017. Mexico ratified the deal in April 2018, and
the agreement officially came into force at end-2018.
Outlook for 2019-23: Policy trends
The López Obrador government will continue to focus on expanding social spending and fighting corruption, in line
with its campaign promises. Mr López Obrador has launched a scholarship for young people, income support for
the disabled and an expansion of the pension programme for the elderly. He has also sought to address Mexico's
historically low wages (among the lowest in Latin America in dollar terms) by strengthening collective bargaining
in a recent labour reform (to comply with the requirements of the USMCA) and mandating a 16% nominal increase
in the minimum wage, and a doubling of the wage in companies operating at the US-Mexico border. Although most
workers are paid above the minimum wage (and are therefore not affected) the steep increase has set off an

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unprecedented wave of strike action in the border region as workers have demanded wage increases. Although
this has upset traditionally calm labour relations, the overall effect on competitiveness should be slight, given that
wages are still comparatively low.
Energy policy will remain a particular bugbear for Mr López Obrador. Even though he has dialled down his
opposition to a 2014 reform that opened up the sector to private-sector participation, he has nevertheless
suspended new oil auctions for three years and sought to increase the role of the state oil company, Pemex, which
already faces capacity constraints and is the most indebted oil company in the world (and which suffered a credit
downgrade in January). Mr López Obrador has increased Pemex's budget for new exploration and has lofty
ambitions to boost crude output from 1.8m barrels/day (b/d) currently to 2.5m b/d by 2023 (above our current
forecasts of 2.1m b/d). He has also proposed construction of an US$8bn refinery (refinery cost overruns are
notorious). However, the government's financial rescue plans for Pemex have so far been judged insufficient, and
concerns over Pemex's debt sustainability (with impacts for sovereign risk as the state will back it) will continue to
linger.
The biggest risk for policymaking remains uncertainty regarding the rules of the game (such as the government's
increased use of popular referendums or other consultations to galvanise public support for its programme), which
is likely to spook investors for some time. Longer-term challenges for policymakers include poor education
outcomes, low levels of banking penetration, weak competition in some domestic sectors and high levels of
informal employment. Recent reforms to address some of these problems will be slow to bear fruit given
institutional weaknesses, and Mr López Obrador's policy proposals to address these issues have been nebulous.
Outlook for 2019-23: Fiscal policy
The public finances will remain under some strain amid softer oil prices in 2019-21 than in 2018-although prices
will rise in 2022-23. We forecast that the fiscal deficit will widen slightly, from 2% of GDP in 2018 to 2.3% of GDP in
2019, based on the budget released by the government in December, which we believe is credible. The budget
funds Mr López Obrador's policy proposals through severe cuts to several ministries. The budget also increases
the primary surplus from 0.7% to 1% of GDP to stabilise the public debt burden, although this may be harder to
achieve, and we assume that there will be some slippage. We envisage a gradual rise in the public debt/GDP ratio
to 51.3% by 2023.
We have revised our 2020 deficit forecast to 2.5% of GDP, on the assumption of stronger real GDP growth that year
than previously forecast. The deficit will gradually narrow thereafter as real GDP growth improves, averaging 2.2%
of GDP in 2021-23. However, if the slight acceleration in real GDP growth that we forecast does not materialise and
remains disappointing, there is a risk that Mr López Obrador will be less committed to fiscal discipline, allowing a
wider fiscal deficit and lifting the debt stock.
The debt stock increased sharply during the previous administration (2012-18). This partly resulted from a weaker
peso, which has raised the local currency value of external debt. The use of part of a transfer by the central bank
for debt repayment in 2017 provided some relief, as did some renewed peso appreciation last year. On the above
assumption of fiscal orthodoxy, we expect Mexico to have little trouble meeting its financing requirement, given its
firm creditworthiness (five-year credit default swap rates were roughly back to their traditional lows at 113 basis
points in late April, from a recent high of 158 in late November-shortly before Mr López Obrador took office). The
sovereign has twice tapped international bond markets at reasonable rates so far this year. The IMF renewed an
US$88bn flexible credit line in November 2017 for two years. We expect this to be renewed later in 2019, but we do
not expect Mexico to need to tap it.
Outlook for 2019-23: Monetary policy
Banxico will continue to focus on curbing peso volatility and bringing inflation back into the 2-4% target range.
Monetary policy will therefore remain tight in the short term, but as the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank)
has recently turned more dovish (we no longer expect any interest rate hikes this year) and as Mexico's inflation
eases later in the year, and real output remains weak, we expect Banxico's next move to be a 50-basis-point cut
later in 2019. However, if volatile policymaking under the López Obrador administration prompts further bouts of

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currency depreciation, driving a rise in inflation, a loosening could be delayed. Rate normalisation will continue to
bring real lending rates down to around 2%. Amid disinflation in January and February, Banxico kept the policy rate
on hold, at 8.25%, at its March meeting, but in its statement cited heightened sovereign risk (several ratings
agencies have put Mexico's investment grade rating on negative watch), as well as an increase in medium- and
long-term Treasury bond yields associated with investors concerns over the policies of the new administration.
Outlook for 2019-23: Economic growth
The USMCA removes uncertainty (we expect approval by the respective national Congresses) on the outlook for
regional trade, and firm US demand will support export growth. However, concerns over economic policy under the
López Obrador administration will dampen domestic and international business confidence, leading investors to
delay outlays. Preliminary real GDP data from the first quarter show a contraction of 0.2% in seasonally adjusted
quarter-on-quarter terms. Given this weak outturn, we have reduced our forecast for 2019 to 1.4%. However, we
have also adjusted upwards our forecast for 2020, to 1.7%, given a lower base effect and a recent upgrade to our
forecast for US real GDP growth that year. We expect growth to pick up thereafter, but our medium-term forecasts
assume that structural reforms implemented in recent years will not achieve their full potential, owing to
institutional deficiencies and Mr López Obrador's policy priorities. Weak public investment and high levels of
poverty will also impede faster growth. On this basis, growth is likely to reach only 2.5% on average in 2021-23. On
the supply side, export-oriented manufacturing is threatened by possible protectionist measures from the US
(although the USMCA removes some uncertainty), but its longer-term prospects remain good, given low wages, a
relatively skilled workforce and deep integration into US value chains. The energy sector will be boosted by reforms
and increased output as concessions to private firms come on-stream. Lower electricity prices and greater inter-
connection with the North American energy grid will reduce input costs for businesses. Tourism will perform well,
but other services sectors will be sluggish, owing to weak competition and regulation.
Outlook for 2019-23: Inflation
We expect inflation to moderate to 3.8% this year, bringing year-end inflation back into the 2-4% target band for the
first time in two years. However, disinflation will not be rapid, leading to an annual average rate of 4.2%. The
decline in 2019 will be due to lower oil prices, although a rise in the price of most foodstuffs will prevent a more
rapid decline. Currency volatility resulting from more erratic policymaking than we currently assume would raise
risks to this forecast. Restrained increases in nominal wages and ample spare capacity will prevent domestic
demand growth from exerting substantial pressure on prices. We expect average annual inflation of 3.7% in 2019-
23.
Outlook for 2019-23: Exchange rates
Currency volatility is likely to persist for some time, given global headwinds (and the peso's position as the most
traded emerging-market currency) and concerns over economic policies under the new administration. However,
against the background of a more dovish US Fed, the peso has regained much of the losses it sustained following
the policy uncertainty of the early months of the new administration, and stood at Ps18.73:US$1 on May 3rd. Our
forecasts assume steady but gradual depreciation. However, in real trade-weighted terms the peso will appreciate,
but remain undervalued against its ten-year average. Should Mr López Obrador unexpectedly pursue expansionary
policies, the peso would be vulnerable to further weakening. We expect Banxico to use dollar purchases and
currency hedging when necessary to curb volatility.
Outlook for 2019-23: External sector
After a current-account deficit of 1.8% of GDP in 2018, we forecast slightly higher, but manageable average deficits
in 2019-20. Although the trade and services deficits will narrow slightly as a percentage of GDP, this will be offset
by a growing primary income deficit, and declining secondary income (transfers) surplus. The current-account
deficit will peak at 2.2% of GDP in 2020, owing to the US slowdown, which will reduce demand for Mexican goods
and services and trigger lower remittances inflows. Better US conditions will allow the deficit to narrow to an
average of 1.8% of GDP in 2021-23. The opening up of the telecommunications and energy sectors will support
foreign direct investment (FDI), which will also be supported by inflows in manufacturing through the USMCA. The

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current-account deficit will be covered by FDI and portfolio investment. Mexico has an extensive cushion of foreign
reserves, which will provide around four months of import cover in 2019-23.
Data summary: Global outlook

Global outlook   2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018b 2019c 2020c 2021c 2022c

Intern
ationa World
l GDP
2023c 2.8 2.8 2.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8
assu growt
mptio h
ns (%)

US
GDP
2.9 2.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.7
growt
h

EU28
GDP
2.0 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.8
growt
h

Latin
Ameri
1.9 1.8 ca 1.0 -0.3 -1.2 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.7
growt
h

World
trade
2.7 2.8 2.9 2.0 2.1 5.4 4.4 3.3 2.9 3.8
growt
h

US
3.9 4.0 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.4 2.2
CPI

EU28
2.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.9
CPI

Manu
factur
2.0 1.9 es -0.1 -4.5 -2.2 1.9 4.9 2.4 3.3 3.4
expor
t price

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 10 of 38

 Oil
price
(Brent
3.2 3.0 98.9 52.4 44.0 54.4 71.1 66.5 60.5 69.8
;
US$/b
)

US$
3-
mont
h
75.6 75.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.1
comm
ercial
paper
rate

¥:US$
2.5 2.9 105.9 121.0 108.8 112.1 110.4 110.2 108.9 104.9
(av)

¥:[eur
100.5 96.1 140.7 134.3 120.4 126.6 130.5 125.6 129.6 126.6
o] (av)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.cEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Gross domestic product, current market 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
  a a a a a b b b b
prices

Expe
nditu
re on
GDP
(Ps
bn at 17,47 18,56 20,09 21,93 23,55 25,06 26,35 28,18
2023b GDP
curre 9 3 5 6 2 2 0 9
nt
mark
et
price
s)

Priva
te
32,50 11,51 12,16 13,15 14,31 15,21 16,36 17,53 18,88
30,143 cons
7 5 7 1 6 9 1 9 9
umpt
ion

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 11 of 38

 Gove
rnme
21,95 nt
20,325 2,133 2,288 2,418 2,573 2,732 2,911 3,140 3,378
1 cons
umpt
ion

Gros
s
fixed
3,645 3,944 3,671 4,179 4,613 4,854 5,206 5,441 5,703 6,025
inves
tmen
t

Expo
rts of
good
6,429 6,879 5,571 6,410 7,456 8,249 9,228 9,400 9,679 9,876
s
&ser
vices

Impo
rts of
11,12 good 10,23 10,31
10,542 5,782 6,791 7,857 8,648 9,669 9,820
2 s 6 9
&ser
vices

Stoc
11,46
10,878 kbuil 158 143 171 184 211 170 175 190
9
ding

Dom
estic 17,47 18,77 20,35 21,92 23,36 24,88 26,55 28,48
180 180
dem 7 8 4 6 8 2 7 2
and

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 12 of 38

 Expe
nditu
re on
GDP
(US$
32,95 bn at
30,579 GDP 1,315 1,171 1,077 1,159 1,224 1,304 1,324
4 curre
nt
mark
et
price
s)

Priva
te
1,395 1,499 1,599 cons 866 768 705 756 791 852 881
umpt
ion

Gove
rnme
nt
935 1,011 1,079 160 144 130 136 142 151 158
cons
umpt
ion

Gros
s
fixed
167 181 194 276 264 247 256 271 283 287
inves
tmen
t

Expo
rts of
good
298 320 338 419 404 399 436 480 489 486
s
&ser
vices

Impo
rts of
good
489 524 547 435 429 421 457 502 511 514
s
&ser
vices

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 13 of 38

 Stoc
511 541 564 kbuil 12 9 9 10 11 9 9
ding

Dom
estic
9 9 9 1,315 1,185 1,091 1,158 1,214 1,295 1,334
dem
and

Econ
omic
struc
ture
(% of Priva
GDP te
1,409 1,521 1,621 at cons 65.9 65.5 65.4 65.3 64.6 65.3
curre umpt
nt ion
mark
et
price
s)

Gove
rnme
nt
66.6 67.0 67.4 67.5 12.2 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.6
cons
umpt
ion

Gros
s
fixed
11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 21.0 22.5 23.0 22.1 22.1 21.7
inves
tmen
t

Stoc
21.6 21.4 21.3 21.2 kbuil 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7
ding

Expo
rts of
good
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 31.9 34.5 37.1 37.6 39.2 37.5
s
&ser
vices

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 14 of 38

 Impo
rts of
good
36.7 35.0 35.0 34.2 33.1 36.6 39.1 39.4 41.1 39.2
s
&ser
vices

Oil
Mem
prod
oran
uctio
38.8 36.6 36.1 35.3 dum 2,429 2,267 2,154 1,949 1,813
c
n
item
('000
s
b/d)

Natio
nal
savin
1,904 1,999 2,029 2,070 2,111 20.0 20.7 21.6 21.3 21.2
gs
ratio
(%)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.cEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Gross domestic product, at constant prices   2014

a
2015
a
2016
a
2017
a
2018
a
2019
b
2020
b
2021
b
2022
b

Real
expe
nditu
re on
GDP
(Ps 16,7 17,2 17,7 18,1 18,5 18,7 19,0 19,5
2023b GDP
bn at 34 84 89 57 19 78 98 18
cons
tant
2008
price
s)

Priva
te
20,5 11,0 11,3 11,7 12,1 12,4 12,7 12,9 13,2
20,038 cons
59 46 46 75 42 12 17 67 21
umpt
ion

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 15 of 38

 Gove
rnme
13,8 nt 2,03 2,07 2,12 2,15 2,17 2,19 2,24 2,28
13,529
58 cons 6 5 9 0 9 7 3 5
umpt
ion

Gros
s
2,39 fixed 3,56 3,74 3,78 3,72 3,74 3,75 3,77 3,81
2,336
6 inves 5 4 2 3 4 6 1 6
tmen
t

Expo
rts of
3,99 good 5,45 5,91 6,12 6,37 6,73 6,96 7,18 7,50
3,900
7 s 1 0 9 0 6 7 5 2
&ser
vices

Impo
rts of
8,16 good 5,59 5,92 6,10 6,47 6,88 7,17 7,43 7,74
7,835
4 s 6 7 0 8 0 3 9 3
&ser
vices

Stoc
8,42
8,112 kbuil 160 142 156 150 164 115 110 85
8
ding

Dom
estic 16,8 17,3 17,8 18,1 18,4 18,7 19,0 19,4
130 140
dem 08 07 42 64 99 84 91 08
and

Real
expe
nditu
20,3 re on
19,894 GDP 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.7
92 GDP
(%
chan
ge)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 16 of 38

 Priva
te
2.2 2.7 2.6 cons 2.1 2.7 3.8 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.0
umpt
ion

Gove
rnme
nt
2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.6 1.0 1.4 0.8 2.1
cons
umpt
ion

Gros
s
fixed
1.9 2.2 2.6 3.1 5.0 1.0 -1.6 0.6 0.3 0.4
inves
tmen
t

Expo
rts of
good
1.2 2.2 2.5 7.0 8.4 3.7 3.9 5.7 3.4 3.1
s
&ser
vices

Impo
rts of
good
4.4 4.4 4.2 5.9 5.9 2.9 6.2 6.2 4.3 3.7
s
&ser
vices

Dom
estic
4.1 4.8 3.9 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6
dem
and

Real
contr
Priva
ibuti
te
on to
1.7 2.5 2.5 cons 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.6
GDP
umpt
grow
ion
th
(%)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 17 of 38

 Gove
rnme
nt
1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
cons
umpt
ion

Gros
s
fixed
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.1
inves
tmen
t

Exter
nal
0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3
bala
nce

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Gross domestic product by sector of

  2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018a 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b
origin

Origi
n of
GDP
(Ps GDP
bn at at 16,06 16,57 17,02 17,36 17,70 17,95 18,25 18,65
2023b
const facto 1 1 4 4 3 1 6 8
ant r cost
2008
price
s)

19,65 Agric
19,155 530 541 560 578 592 615 637 661
3 ulture

Indus
684 708 5,319 5,385 5,407 5,389 5,398 5,393 5,441 5,550
try

Servi 10,21 10,64 11,05 11,39 11,71 11,94 12,17 12,44

5,661 5,774
ces 1 5 7 6 3 3 8 7

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 18 of 38

 Origi
n of
GDP
13,17 Agric
12,810 (real 3.8 2.1 3.5 3.2 2.4 3.9 3.5
1 ulture
%
chan
ge)

Indus
3.8 3.5 3.5 2.6 1.2 0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.9
try

Servi
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 4.3 3.9 3.1 2.8 2.0 2.0
ces

Origi
n of
GDP
Agric
2.2 2.9 2.8 (% of 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6
ulture
facto
r cost
GDP)

Indus
3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 33.2 31.9 31.5 32.5 32.9 32.4
try

Servi
32.1 32.1 31.9 31.7 63.5 64.8 64.9 63.9 63.6 64.0
ces

Indus
trial
Mem
produ
orand
64.2 64.2 64.4 64.5 ction 2.6 1.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1c
um
(%
item
chan
ge)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.cEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.
Data summary: Growth and productivity

Growth and productivity   2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018a 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b

Labou
Growt
r
h and
produ
2023b produ 2.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 -0.7 0.2 0.8 1.0
ctivity
ctivity
growt
(%)
h

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 19 of 38

 Total
factor
produ
1.2 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.6 0.9
ctivity
growt
h

Growt
h of
1.2 1.1 capita 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8
l
stock

Growt
h of
1.8 1.9 poten 2.8 3.0 2.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.4
tial
GDP

Growt
h of
2.6 2.5 2.8c 3.3c 2.9c 2.1c 2.0c 1.4 1.7 2.2
real
GDP

Growt
h of
real
2.7 2.6 1.4c 1.9c 1.6c 0.8c 0.7 0.2 0.5 1.1
GDP
per
head

a
Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts. cActual.
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Economic structure, income and

  2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018b 2019c 2020c 2021c 2022c
market size

Popul
ation,
inco
Popul
me
2023c ation 124.2 125.9 127.5 129.2 130.8 132.3 133.9 135.4
and
(m)
mark
et
size

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 20 of 38

 GDP
(US$
bn at
mark 1,315 1,171 1,076. 1,159 1,223 1,304 1,323 1,394
136.9 138.3
et .0 .3 6 .0 .9a .4 .8 .7
excha
nge
rates)

GDP
per
head
(US$
1,598 at 10,59 10,30
1,499.1 9,300 8,440 8,970 9,360 9,860 9,890
.7 mark 0 0
et
excha
nge
rates)

Privat
e
cons
11,56
10,950 umpti 866.3 767.7 704.6 756.4 790.8
a 851.5 881.2 934.5
0
on
(US$
bn)

Privat
e
cons
1,079 umpti
1,010.8 6,970 6,100 5,520 5,860 6,050 6,430 6,580 6,900
.5 on
per
head
(US$)

GDP
(US$ 2,172 2,229 2,313. 2,426 2,521 2,599 2,699 2,805
7,380 7,800
bn at .6 .5 9 .3 .0a .7 .5 .8
PPP)

GDP
per
3,014 head 17,49 17,71 18,79 19,28 19,65 20,16 20,72
2,909.3 18,140
.8 (US$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
at
PPP)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 21 of 38

 Perso
nal
dispo
21,80 sable 12,79 13,65 14,549 15,53 16,19 17,07 18,30 19,71
21,260 b
0 inco 5b 4b 6b 3 5 5 4
me
(Ps
bn)

Perso
nal
dispo
22,90 sable
21,212 963b 862b 780b 821b 841 889 920 975
9 inco
me
(US$
bn)

Growt
h of
real
dispo
1,055 1,127 2.1b 3.7b 2.3b 1.2b 0.2 0.5 2.0 2.0
sable
inco
me
(%)

Share
Mem of
orand world
2.3 2.4 1.71 1.71 1.72 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.74
um popul
items ation
(%)

Share
of
world
GDP
(% at
1.75 1.75 1.77 1.68 1.58 1.43 1.45 1.45a 1.51 1.45
mark
et
excha
nge
rates)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 22 of 38

 Share
of
world
1.45 1.49 1.51 1.98 1.95 1.94 1.92 1.90a 1.86 1.83
GDP
(% at
PPP)

Share
of
world
1.85 1.83 1.81 expor 2.15 2.36 2.39 2.37 2.37a 2.36 2.26
ts of
good
s (%)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.cEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Fiscal indicators   2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018a 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b

Budg
etary
Fiscal
public
indica
-
2023b tors 22.8 23.0 24.1 22.6 21.7 22.5 23.4 23.7
secto
(% of
r
GDP)
reven
ue

Budg
etary
public
-
24.0 24.1 25.9 26.4 26.6 23.6 23.7 24.8 25.9 26.1
secto
r
expen
diture

Budg
etary
public
-
26.0 26.1 -3.1 -3.4 -2.5 -1.1 -2.0 -2.3 -2.5 -2.4
secto
r
balan
ce

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 23 of 38

 Publi
c-
secto
r
-2.0 -2.0 borro -4.5 -4.0 -2.8 -1.1 -2.0 -2.3 -2.5 -2.4
wing
requir
emen
t

Prima
ry
-2.0 -2.0 -1.1 -1.2 -0.1 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2
balan
ce

Gover
0.6 0.8 nmen 41.3 45.4 49.4 46.9 46.8 46.6 49.2 50.5
t debt

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Data summary: Monetary indicators

Monetary indicators   2014a 2015

a
2016
a
2017
a
2018
a
2019
b
2020
b
2021
b
2022
b

Excha
Monet
nge
ary
2023b rate 13.3 15.8 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.2 19.9 20.2
indica
Ps:US
tors
$ (av)

Excha
nge
rate
20.1 20.3 Ps:US 14.7 17.2 20.7 19.8 19.7 19.5 20.3 19.9
$
(year-
end)

Real
effecti
ve
109. 100.
20.7 21.3 excha c 86.8c 88.8c 88.5c 91.8 89.7 88.9
2 1c
nge
rate
(av)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 24 of 38

 Real
effecti
ve
excha
90.0 90.1 nge 86.7c 79.3c 70.3c 72.7c 73.4c 75.0 73.2 72.8
rate
(av),
PPI-
based

Purch
asing
power 10.0
73.9 74.3 8.05 8.33 8.68 9.04 9.34 9.64 9.76
parity 5
Ps:US
$ (av)

Mone
y
suppl
10.36 10.78 8.2 6.5 13.3 9.4 5.4 17.0 3.8 9.0
y (M2)
growt
h (%)

Dome
stic
8.9 10.5 credit 6.0 12.9 18.9 4.6 5.2 -0.6 4.4 7.4
growt
h (%)

Com
merci
al
banks
7.4 9.1 ' 3.6 3.4 4.7 7.3 8.1 8.3 7.5 6.8
prime
rate
(av;
%)

Depos
it rate
5.7 5.7 0.8 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.3 3.4 2.5 1.8
(av;
%)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 25 of 38

 Mone
y
marke
0.8 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.5 7.1 8.0 8.1 7.3 6.6
t rate
(av;
%)

Long-
term
bond
5.5 5.5 3.3 3.5 4.6 7.1 8.1 7.7 6.3 5.8
yield
(av;
%)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.cEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

201 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202

Employment, wages and prices  
4a 5a 6a 7a 8a 9b 0b 1b 2b

The
Labo
labo
ur
ur
2023b forc 51.9 52.9 53.7 54.2 55.6 56.4 57.1 57.9
mar
e
ket
(m)
(av)

Labo
ur
forc
58.6 59.2 0.3 1.9 1.5 1.0 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.3
e (%
chan
ge)

Une
mpl
oym
1.2 1.1 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.3c 2.5 3.2 2.9
ent
rate
(%)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 26 of 38

 Wag
e
and
price
infla
Con
tion
sum
(%
er
2.9 2.6 exce 4.0 2.7 2.8 6.0 4.9 4.2 3.8
price
pt
s
labo
(av)
ur
cost
s per
hour
)

Con
sum
er
price
3.7 3.6 3.5 4.1 2.1 3.4 6.8 4.8 3.8 3.6
s
(yea
r-
end)

Prod
ucer
3.6 3.5 3.6 price 1.9 0.4 5.4 7.7 6.6 3.1 4.5
s
(av)

GDP
defla
4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 2.8 5.2 7.0 5.3 4.9 3.4
tor
(av)

Priv
ate
cons
ump
4.7 4.2 5.1 4.2 2.9 4.2 5.6 4.0 4.9 5.1
tion
defla
tor
(av)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 27 of 38

 Gov
ern
men
t
cons
5.6 5.2 5.4 4.7 5.3 3.0 5.4 4.7 5.7 5.7
ump
tion
defla
tor
(av)

Fixe
d
inve
stm
5.6 5.6 5.5 2.9 8.4 9.3 6.9 6.6 4.2 4.4
ent
defla
tor
(av)

Aver
age
nom
4.4 4.4 4.4 inal 4.0 4.2 3.9c 4.7c 5.0c 5.0 4.5
wag
es
(av)

Aver
age
real
4.5 4.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 1.1c -1.3c 0.1c 0.8 0.7
wag
es
(av)

Unit
labo
ur
cost
0.8 0.4 1.0 s -1.3 1.6 3.7 0.3c 1.0c 4.8 3.7
(Ps-
base
d;
av)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 28 of 38

 Unit
labo
ur
cost
3.5 2.7 3.3 s -5.1 -14.8 -11.9 -1.1c -0.6c 5.0 0.1
(US$
-
base
d)

Labo
ur
cost
1.9 3.2 2.1 31.3 32.4 33.5
c
35.0
c
36.8
c 38.7 40.4
s per
hour
(Ps)

Labo
ur
cost
42.2 43.9 45.9 s per 2.4 2.0 1.8c 1.9c 1.9c 2.0 2.0
hour
(US$
)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.cEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Current account and terms of trade   2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018a 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b

Curre Curre
nt nt-
accou accou
2023b -24.8 -30.5 -24.3 -19.4 -22.2 -22.3 -29.4 -27.6
nt nt
(US$ balan
bn) ce

Curre
nt-
accou
nt
-24.2 -27.3 -1.9 -2.6 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -2.2 -2.0
balan
ce (%
of
GDP)

PDF GENERADO POR SEARCH.PROQUEST.COM Page 29 of 38

 Good
s:
-1.6 -1.7 397.6 381.0 374.3 409.8 450.9 458.2 456.3 454.8
expor
ts fob

Good
s: - - - - - - - -
487.4 507.6
impor 400.4 395.6 387.4 420.8 464.8 472.6 475.0 469.8
ts fob

Trade
-
-497.6 balan -2.8 -14.6 -13.1 -11.0 -13.9 -14.4 -18.7 -15.0
518.5
ce

Servic
-10.2 -10.9 es: 21.2 22.9 24.2 27.6 29.0 30.2 29.5 32.0
credit

Servic
34.7 36.8 es: -34.5 -32.6 -33.1 -37.5 -37.7 -38.5 -39.2 -41.0
debit

Servic
es
-42.8 -44.9 -13.3 -9.7 -8.9 -9.8 -8.7 -8.2 -9.6 -9.0
balan
ce

Prima
ry
-8.1 -8.0 inco 10.6 7.4 8.1 10.7 11.7 11.7 10.9 11.1
me:
credit

Prima
ry
10.1 10.8 inco -42.1 -37.7 -36.9 -39.0 -44.0 -44.9 -44.7 -47.7
me:
debit

Prima
ry
inco
-51.4 -55.5 -31.6 -30.3 -28.8 -28.3 -32.3 -33.2 -33.8 -36.6
me
balan
ce

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 Seco
ndary
-41.4 -44.6 inco 23.9 25.0 27.3 30.6 33.8 34.7 33.9 34.3
me:
credit

Seco
ndary
36.9 37.7 inco -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2
me:
debit

Seco
ndary
inco
-1.3 -1.4 22.8 24.1 26.5 29.7 32.7 33.5 32.7 33.1
me
balan
ce

Expor
t
price
Term index
35.5 36.3 s of (US$- 106.3 88.7 82.6 88.6 93.9c 92.0 88.3
trade based
;
2010
=100)

Expor
t
prices
84.4 86.6 86.6 -4.4 -16.5 -6.9 7.2 6.0c -2.0 -4.0
(%
chang
e)

Impor
t
price
index
-4.4 2.6 -0.1 (US$- 108.9 105.2 104.3 107.0 110.7
c 107.3 103.8
based
;
2010
=100)

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 Impor
t
prices
98.4 99.3 99.5 0.7 -3.4 -0.9 2.6 3.5c -3.1 -3.3
(%
chang
e)

Term
s of
-5.2 0.9 0.2 trade 97.6 84.4 79.3 82.8 84.8c 85.7 85.1
(2010
=100)

Expor
Mem t
orand mark
85.8 87.3 87.0 5.4c 5.4c 1.4c 4.7c 4.7c 3.5
um et
item growt
h (%)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.cEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.
Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Foreign direct investment   2014

a
2015
a
2016
a
2017
a
2018
b
2019
c
2020
c
2021
c
2022
c

Forei
gn Inwa
direc rd
t direc
2023c inve t 31.5 37.1 36.1 31.0 34.6 32.6 29.8 39.1
stme inve
nt stme
(US$ nt
bn)

Inwa
rd
direc
t
inve
42.0 44.8 2.4 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.8
stme
nt (%
of
GDP
)

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 Inwa
rd
direc
t
inve
stme
nt (%
2.8 2.8 11.4 14.1 14.6 12.1 12.8 11.5 10.4 13.1
of
gros
s
fixed
inve
stme
nt)

Out
ward
direc
13.1 13.2 t -7.1 -11.9 -5.9 -3.0 -9.9 -9.1 -6.6 -11.2
inve
stme
nt

Net
forei
gn
direc
-12.0 -12.8 24.4 25.2 30.2 28.0 24.7 23.5 23.2 27.9
t
inve
stme
nt

Stoc
k of
forei
gn
552. 563. 536. 546. 544. 577. 606. 645.
30.0 32.0 direc
1 7 6 2 4 0 8 8
t
inve
stme
nt

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 Stoc
k of
forei
gn
direc
t
732. 4,44 4,47 4,20 4,22 4,16 4,36 4,53 4,77
687.8 inve
6 4 7 8 8 3 0 3 0
stme
nt
per
head
(US$
)

Stoc
k of
forei
gn
direc
5,29 t
5,025 42.0 48.1 49.8 47.1 44.5 44.2 45.8 46.3
6 inve
stme
nt (%
of
GDP
)

Shar
e of
worl
d
Mem inwa
oran rd
45.9 45.8 dum direc 1.64 1.21 1.43 1.84 2.20 1.55 1.37
item t
s inve
stme
nt
flow
s (%)

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 Shar
e of
worl
d
inwa
rd
1.73 1.79 1.84 direc 2.24 2.14 1.91 1.82 1.70 1.69 1.72
t
inve
stme
nt
stoc
k (%)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.cEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Data summary: External debt

External debt   2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018b 2019c 2020c 2021c 2022c

Total
extern
Extern
al
2023c al 442.4 426.9 422.5 455.1 476.3 488.5 512.8 536.7
debt
debt
(US$
bn)

Total
extern
al
567.0 593.7 33.6 36.4 39.2 39.3 38.9 37.4 38.7 38.5
debt
(% of
GDP)

Debt/
export
37.8 37.1 97.7 97.9 97.4 95.1 90.7 91.4 96.7 100.9
s ratio
(%)

Debt-
servic
e
99.7 100.2 10.9 12.4 18.2 13.1 13.2 13.7 13.9 14.6
ratio,
paid
(%)

a
Actual.bEconomist Intelligence Unit estimates.cEconomist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Data sources and definitions
Sources for global and domestic data refer to historical data. The source for all forecast data, unless otherwise
stated, is The Economist Intelligence Unit

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Global data
US GDP growth: OECD
World trade growth: UN
US consumer price inflation: OECD
Manufactures prices: UN
Non-oil commodity prices: IMF
Oil prices: dated Brent
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate: IFS
US$ effective exchange rate: IFS; nominal weighted index, 1990=100
Domestic data
GDP per head: US$ GDP divided by population
Public-sector balance: Banxico; non-financial public sector (NFPS), excluding privatisation receipts
Exchange rate: IFS, monthly; market rates expressed as Ps:US$1
Balance of payments: IFS; Banxico; flows from maquila (offshore assembly plants) appear in trade account
Foreign direct investment: UNCTAD, World Investment Report; IFS, Banxico
Long-term external debt: World Bank, Global Development Finance; year-end medium- and long-term publicly
guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt outstanding with an original maturity in excess of one year, plus arrears, plus
year-end IMF debt outstanding
Short-term external debt: World Bank, Global Development Finance; outstanding year-end debt with an original
maturity of less than one year, net of interest arrears
IMF debt stocks, flows and interest: IFS, monthly; Yearbook, 2001; covers the general resource account, structural
adjustment facilities, enhanced structural adjustment facilities and trust-fund loans
Total external debt: sum of long- and short-term debt, plus arrears
Total debt service: World Bank, Global Development Finance; principal repayments made against long-term debt,
plus interest payments and IMF charges paid against total external debt
Abbreviations
Banxico: Banco de México (the central bank)
IFS: IMF, International Financial Statistics
IMF: International Monetary Fund
UNCTAD: UN Conference on Trade and Development

DETALLES

Materia: Political risk; Elections; International relations; Policy making; Fiscal policy;
Monetary policy; Economic growth; Inflation; Foreign exchange rates; Forecasts;
Gross Domestic Product--GDP; Productivity; Economic structure; Economic
indicators; Wages &salaries; Employment; Prices; Terms of trade; Current accounts;
Foreign investment; External debt

Lugar: Mexico Latin America

Empresa/organización: Nombre: International Bank for Reconstruction &Development--World Bank; NAICS:

928120; Nombre: Organization for Economic Cooperation &Development; NAICS:
928120

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 Identificador / palabra Mexico Latin America Political stability Election watch International relations Policy
clave: trends Fiscal policy Monetary policy Economic growth Inflation Exchange rates
External sector Global outlook Gross domestic product, current market prices Gross
domestic product, at constant prices Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Growth and productivity Economic structure, income and market size Fiscal
indicators Monetary indicators Employment, wages and prices Current account and
terms of trade Foreign direct investment External debt

Título: Country Forecast Mexico May 2019 Updater

Título de publicación: Country Forecast. Mexico; New York

Año de publicación: 2019

Fecha de publicación: May 2019

Editorial: The Economist Intelligence Unit N.A., Incorporated

Lugar de publicación: New York

País de publicación: United Kingdom, New York

Materia de publicación: Business And Economics, Political Science

ISSN: 09669469

Tipo de fuente: Reports

Idioma de la publicación: English

Tipo de documento: Statistics

ID del documento de 2225484635

ProQuest:

URL del documento: http://0-

search.proquest.com.millenium.itesm.mx/docview/2225484635?accountid=11643

Copyright: (c) 2019 The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduced with
permission of the copyright owner. No further reproduction is permitted.

Última actualización: 2019-05-24

Base de datos: Political Science Database

ENLACES
Biblioteca Digital TEC

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Copyright de la base de datos  2019 ProQuest LLC. Reservados todos los derechos.

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