A STUDY ON THE PROS AND CONS TOWARDS 10 CLIMATE MIGRANTS

ASPECTS CONCERNED BY UNITED NATIONS

(This research is used as a graduation requirement at School of Human

High School. 2019/2020)

BY:
NAJAQISTHI RASYAHAQ

SMA SCHOOL OF HUMAN

WEST JAVA
2020

1
 DRAFT LIST
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
DRAFT LIST 2
CHAPTER I PREMILINARY 3
Background 5
Formulation of problems 6
Purposes of research
Benefit of research 6
CHAPTER II THEORITICAL REVIEW 1
CHAPTER III RESEARCH METHODS 4
Research methodology 5
Data analysis technique 6
CHAPTER IV ANALYSIS 1
Research result 2
CHAPTER V CONCLUSION 3
Conclusion 5
Suggestion

2
 VALIDITY SHEET

this scientific report is prepared as a final project and one of the

requirements for graduation.
Bekasi, 4 February 2020

Approve of

Tutor Curriculum
Advisor

Tri Maryanti,S.Pd Irsan

Qodriansyah, S.Pd.I

Headmaster

Nurmansyah Abdul Ghani, S.Pd

3
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted

that the greatest single impact of climate change could be on human
migration—with millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal
flooding and agricultural disruption. Since then various analysis have tried to
put numbers on future flows of climate migrants (sometimes called “climate
refugees”)—the most widely repeated prediction being 200 million by 2050.
But repetition does not make the figure any more accurate. While the
scientific argument for climate change is increasingly confident, the
consequences of climate change for human population distribution are
unclear and unpredictable. With so many other social, economic and
environmental factors at work establishing a linear, causative relationship
between anthropogenic climate change and migration has, to date, been
difficult.
This may change in future. The available science, summarized in the latest
assessment report of the IPCC, translates into a simple fact; on current
predictions the “carrying capacity” of large parts of the world will be
compromised by climate change.
The meteorological impact of climate change can be divided into two
distinct drivers of migration; climate processes such as sea-level rise,
salinization of agricultural land, desertification and growing water scarcity,
and climate events such as flooding, storms and glacial lake outburst floods.
But non-climate drivers, such as government policy, population growth and
community-level resilience to natural disaster, are also important. All
contribute to the degree of vulnerability people experience.
The problem is one of time (the speed of change) and scale (the number
of people it will affect). But the simplistic image of a coastal farmer being
forced to pack up and move to a rich country is not typical. On the contrary, as
is already the case with political refugees, it is likely that the burden of

4
providing for climate migrants will be borne by the poorest countries—those
least responsible for emissions of greenhouse gases.
Temporary migration as an adaptive response to climate stress is already
apparent in many areas. But the picture is nuanced; the ability to migrate is a
function of mobility and resources (both financial and social). In other words,
the people most vulnerable to climate change are not necessarily the ones
most likely to migrate.
Forced migration hinders development in at least four ways; by increasing
pressure on urban infrastructure and services, by undermining economic
growth, by increasing the risk of conflict and by leading to worse health,
educational and social indicators among migrants themselves.
However, there has been a collective, and rather successful, attempt to
ignore the scale of the problem. Forced climate migrants fall through the
cracks of international refugee and immigration policy—and there is
considerable resistance to the idea of expanding the definition of political
refugees to incorporate climate “refugees”. Meanwhile, large-scale migration
is not taken into account in national adaptation strategies which tend to see
migration as a “failure of adaptation”. So far there is no “home” for climate
migrants in the international community, both literally and figuratively.
Predicting future flows of climate migrants is complex by a lack of
baseline data, distorted by population growth and reliant on the evolution of
climate change as well as the quantity of future emissions.

5
 CHAPTER I
PREMILINARY

1.1Background
In 2018 alone, 17.2 million new disaster-related transfers were
recorded in 148 countries and regions (IDMC) and 764,000 people in
Somalia, Afghanistan, and several other countries displaced by drought
(IOM). Climate migrants have not been seen for years in the migration
and climate debate. The work of the International Organization for
migration has been focused for more than 10 years on bringing climate
and environmental factors to light and building a body of evidence that
proves that climate change affects - directly and indirectly - human
mobility.
Therefore, it may seem paradoxical in this context not to
encourage the establishment of a special climate legal status, in line with
the status of existing refugees. However, while available evidence of how
climate change and environmental degradation affect growing and
irrefutable human mobility, the focus of the current debate on
establishing climate refugee status can lead to a narrow and biased
debate and will only provide partial solutions to overcome the
complexity of human mobility and climate change.
The media is constantly pushing features for "climate refugees"
and asking for projections of how many climate refugees are in the next
twenty years. Conversely, some small island states symbol, among other
things, stated that they did not want to become climate refugees; they
want to be able to live in their homes, or move with dignity and through
regular channels without leaving everything behind.

6
 The image of “climate refugees” resonates metaphorically to all as
it mirrors the current images we see of those escaping wars and conflicts.
With the threat of climate change we imagine millions becoming refugees
in the future.
Yet reducing the issue of migration in the context of climate
change to the status of “climate refugees” fails to recognize a number of
key aspects that define human mobility in the context of climate change
and environmental degradation.

1.2Formulation of problems
Based on the issues and debates that are spreading, what is the pros and
cons on 10 aspects highlighted by the UN?

1.3Purposes of research
I. to increase awareness of the dangers of climate change and
natural disasters,
II. Recognizing that the international community is currently
facing the highest number of displaced persons in recorded
history,
III. Realizing the need for an effective and progressive response
to prevent and mitigate the threat of climate change on the
basis of the best available scientific knowledge,
IV. Reaffirming the importance of the engagements of all actors
especially the government, in accordance with the
respective national legislations of parties in addressing
climate migrants,
V. Acknowledging specific needs and special circumstances of
developing country parties and small island developing

7
 states which are particularly vulnerable to the adverse
effects of climate change,

1.4Benefits of research
I. As a graduation requirement in school of human high school.
II. As a learning medium for people , organisation ,schools.

8
9
 CHAPTER II
THEORITICAL REVIEW

1.5Defining Climate Migrants

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) proposes
the following definition, “Environmental migrants are persons or groups
of persons, who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes
in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions,
are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or chose to do so, either
temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or
abroad”
(IOM,2011:33)

1.6Defining Climate Refugee

The use of the word “refugee” to describe those fleeing from
environmental pressures is not strictly accurate under international law.
The United Nations’ 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol relating to the
status of refugees are clear that the term should be restricted to those
fleeing persecution: “a refugee is a person who owing to a well-founded
fear of being per-secuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality,
membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside
the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is
unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country”

1.7The 1951 Convention Refugee

The 1951 Refugee Convention is the key legal document that forms the
basis of our work. Ratified by 145 State parties, it defines the term
‘refugee; and outlines the rights of the displaced, as well as the legal

10
 obligations of States to protect them. The core principle in non-
refoulatement, which assert that a refugee should not be returned to a
country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. This is
now considered a rule of customary international law.
UNHCR serves as the ‘guardian’ of the 1951 Convention and its 1967
Protocol. According to the legislation, States are expected to cooperate
with us in ensuring that the rights of refugees are respected and
protected.
( https://www.unhcr.org/1951-refugee-convention.html )

1.8Defining Paris Agreement

On 12 December 2015, 196 Parties to the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, a new legally-
binding framework for an internationally coordinated effort to tackle
climate change. The Agreement represents the culmination of six years of
international climate change negotiations under the auspices of the
UNFCCC, and was reached under intense international pressure to avoid a
repeat failure of the Copenhagen conference in 2009. The Agreement
establishes a global warming goal of well below 2°C on pre-industrial
averages. It requires countries to formulate progressively more ambitious
climate targets which are consistent with this goal. To achieve this goal, all
Parties to the Paris Agreement will need to make profound changes to
their economies. The Paris Agreement defines a universal, legal
framework to ‘strengthen the global response to the threat of climate
change’ (Art. 2). It establishes the obligation of all Parties to contribute to
climate change mitigation and adaptation. For the first time, all countries
will develop plans on how to contribute to climate change mitigation, and
will communicate their ‘nationally determined contributions’ to the
Secretariat of the Convention.

11
 (https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20151228%20COP
%2021%20briefing%20FIN.pdf)
1.9The Role of IOM
Established in 1951, IOM is the leading inter-governmental
organization in the field of migration and works closely with
governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental partners.
With 173 member states, a further 8 states holding observer status
and offices in over 100 countries, IOM is dedicated to promoting humane
and orderly migration for the benefit of all. It does so by providing
services and advice to governments and migrants.
IOM works to help ensure the orderly and humane management of
migration, to promote international cooperation on migration issues, to
assist in the search for practical solutions to migration problems and to
provide humanitarian assistance to migrants in need, including refugees
and internally displaced people.
The IOM Constitution recognizes the link between migration and
economic, social and cultural development, as well as to the right of
freedom of movement.
IOM works in the four broad areas of migration management:

 Migration and development

 Facilitating migration

 Regulating migration

 Forced migration.

IOM activities that cut across these areas include the promotion of
international migration law, policy debate and guidance, protection of
migrants' rights, migration health and the gender dimension of migration.

12
1.10 Recognizing Key aspects that difine human mobility in the
context of Climate Migrants by United Nations

1. Climate migration is mainly internal: when migration is internal,

people moving are under the responsibility of their own state, they do
not cross borders and are not seeking protection from a third country
or at the international level.

2. Migration is not necessarily forced, especially for very slow onset

processes migration is still a matter of choice, even if constrained, so
countries need to think first migration management and agreements
rather than refugee protection.

3. Isolating environment/climatic reasons is difficult, in particular

from humanitarian, political, social, conflict or economic ones. It can
sometimes be an impossible task and may lead to long and unrealistic
legal procedures.

4. Creating a special refugee status for climate change related reasons

might unfortunately have the opposite effects of what is sought as a
solution: it can lead to the exclusion of categories of people who
are in need of protection, especially the poorest migrants who move
because of a mix of factors and would not be able to prove the link to
climate and environmental factors.

5. Opening the 1951 Refugee Convention might weaken the refugee

status which would be tragic given the state of our world where so
many people are in need of protection because of persecution and
ongoing conflicts.

6. Creating a new convention might be a terribly lengthy political process

and countries might not have an appetite for it. Many responses can

13
 come from migration management and policy as highlighted
already in the 2011 International Dialogue on Migration and the
recently adopted Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular
Migration. The Nansen Initiative that was launched to look at gaps in
protection for people being displaced across borders by disasters,
after undertaking thematic and regional consultations also concluded
with a document that proposes a “toolkit” of migration policies rather
than recommending the establishment of a new status for these
people.

7. Climate migration discussions should not lose their focus on

preventive measures: the key objective of our generation is to invest
in climate and environmental solutions for our planet so that people
will not have to leave their homes in a forced way in the future.
The Paris Agreement offers anchorage for climate action that
considers human mobility to avert, minimize and address
displacement in the context of climate change.

8. IOM encourages the full use of all already existing bodies of laws
and instruments, both hard and soft law in humanitarian, human
rights and refugee law, instruments on internal displacement, disaster
management, legal migration and others.

9. Human rights-based approaches are key for addressing climate

migration: states of origin bear the primary responsibility for their
citizens’ protection even if indeed their countries have not been the
main contributors to global warming; they should therefore apply
human rights-based approaches for their citizens moving because of
environmental or climatic drivers.

10. Regular migration pathways can provide relevant protection for

climate migrants and facilitate migration strategies in response to

14
 environmental factors. Many migration management solutions are
available to respond to challenges posed by climate change,
environmental degradation and disasters in terms of international
migratory movements and can provide a status for people who move
in the context of climate change impacts, such as humanitarian visas,
temporary protection, authorization to stay, regional and bilateral free
movements’ agreements, among several others.

CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHODS

1.11 Systematic Review Methods

Individual research methodologies, in principle systematic review

research begins with making a systematic review research protocol and
the next stage of carrying out systematic review research. Sequentially,
The systematic review research process is shown in the table.

Analogous to the research methodology general, where there are

quantitative methods and qualitative, then in a systematic review there is
also quantitative methods and qualitative methods. Method Quantitative
systematic review is used for Synthesize research results with approach
quantitative. A statistical approach to doing This synthesis of quantitative
research results is referred to as "Meta-analysis". By definition, meta-
analysis is technique of doing data aggregation to get statistical power in
identification causal relationship between risk factors or treatment with
an effect (outcome) (Perry & Hammond, 2002).

15
 Meanwhile, the qualitative approach insystematic review is used to
synthesize

(summarizing) research results that are of a nature descriptive

qualitative. Synthesis method (summarize) the results of this qualitative
research are referred to as "Meta-synthesis". By definition, meta-synthesis
is the technique of doing data integration to get new theories or concepts
or levels of understanding more profound and comprehensive (Perry &
Hammond, 2002).

As already stated that data retrieval of research results by the method

systematic review is through searching on the internet (PubMed,

MEDLINE, etc.). Then difficulties for researchers is a way to obtain results
data.

Systematic Review Process Research Sequence table.

(Perry & Hammond, 2002)

NO THE STAGES OF THE PROCESS PURPOSE

1. Question identification Transforming problems into

research. questions research.

2. Develop a systematic review Providing guidance in conducting

research protocol. systematic reviews.

16
3. Set the location of the Provide a limitation of the search
research database as a search area of the research results which is
area (eg MEDLINE, PubMed). relevant.

4. Selection of relevant research Gather research findings relevant to

results. the question research.

5. Choose quality research Perform exclusions and inclusion in

results. research to be entered in a
systematic review based on quality.

6. Data extraction from Perform data extraction from

individual study. individual studies to get findings
Importance.

7. Synthesis of results by method Synthesizing results with a meta-

meta-analysis (if allow), or analysis technique (forest plot) or
narrative method (if narrative technique
impossible). (metasynthesis).

8. Presentation of results. Write down the results research in

the document systematic results
report review.

17
1.12 Data Analysis Technique

Data collection techniques in this study is based on the qualitative

insystematic review with the descriptions of the pros and cons of 10
aspects of climate migrants highlighted by the United Nations.

CHAPTER IV

ANALYSIS

18
Shown below are the analysis based on 10 aspects underlined by the UN
raises the pros and cons both in terms of the community itself and also the
government.

1. Climate migration is mainly internal,

Pros :

I. Other countries are safer. For example: With the influx of

migrants it is essential to prevent illegal immigrant,

II. The government can reach out and take care of its own people,

Cons:

I. Climate migrants change their status to climate refugees,

which will carry out complicated protocols,

II. Causing an increase in population which can increase the risk

of crime and poverty,

III. disrupts economic stability.

2. Migration is not necessarily forced,

Pro :

I. Defending people’s right.

Cons:

19
 I. Increase the burden on the government and can cause other
losses.

3. Isolating environment/climatic reasons is difficult, in particular

from humanitarian, political, social, conflict or economic ones. It can
sometimes be an impossible task and may lead to long and unrealistic
legal procedures.

4. Creating a special refugee status for climate change related

reasons

Cons:

I. It can lead to the exclusion of categories of people who are in

need of protection, especially the poorest migrants who move
because of a mix of factors and would not be able to prove the
link to climate and environmental factors.

5. Opening the 1951 Refugee Convention might weaken the refugee

status which would be tragic given the state of our world where so
many people are in need of protection because of persecution and
ongoing conflicts.

Pro:

I. People is that they risk being labelled, classified and treated

with different degrees of humanity,

With the description because of the 1951 Convention relating

to the Status of Refugees extends solely to people who are
fearful of being persecuted as a result of their race, religion,

20
 nationality, membership of a particular social group or political
opinion and as a result, are unable to seek protection in their
home country.
II. Some small island states symbol, among other things, stated
that they did not want to become climate refugees; they want to
be able to live in their homes, or move with dignity and through
regular channels without leaving everything behind.

6. Creating a new convention

Cons:

I. might be a terribly lengthy political process and countries

might not have an appetite for it,

II. Many responses can come from migration management and

policy as highlighted already in the 2011 International
Dialogue on Migration and the recently adopted Global
Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. The Nansen
Initiative that was launched to look at gaps in protection for
people being displaced across borders by disasters, after
undertaking thematic and regional consultations also
concluded with a document that proposes a “toolkit” of
migration policies rather than recommending the
establishment of a new status for these people.

21
7. Climate migration discussions should not lose their focus on
preventive measures,

Pro:

I. the key objective of our generation is to invest in climate and

environmental solutions for our planet so that people will not
have to leave their homes in a forced way in the future.
The Paris Agreement offers anchorage for climate action that
considers human mobility to avert, minimize and address
displacement in the context of climate change.

8. IOM encourages the full use of all already existing bodies of laws
and instruments, both hard and soft law in humanitarian, human
rights and refugee law, instruments on internal displacement, disaster
management, legal migration and others.

Pro :

I. To maximize the efforts of holders of power to resolve cases

that are occurring or will occur.

9. Human rights-based approaches are key for addressing climate

migration: states of origin bear the primary responsibility for their
citizens’ protection even if indeed their countries have not been the
main contributors to global warming; they should therefore apply
human rights-based approaches for their citizens moving because of
environmental or climatic drivers.

22
 Pro:

I. To prevent substantive psychological conditions to the victims

Cons:

I. Could lead to human right violations.

10. Regular migration pathways

Pro:

II. To provide relevant protection for climate migrants and

facilitate migration strategies in response to environmental
factors for countries cooperating with power institutions.

23
 CHAPTER V

CONCLUSION
Based on sparked debates from the media and news from the UN as well as
NGOs, this study investigate both pros and cons with a logical explanation
taken from resources that the NGOs digitally provide, that reached to a
conclusion in the following list :

PROS:

I. Other countries are safer. For example: With the influx of

migrants it is essential to prevent illegal immigrant,

II. The government can reach out and take care of its own people,

III. Defending people’s right,

IV. People is that they risk being labelled, classified and treated
with different degrees of humanity,
V. Some small island states symbol, among other things, stated
that they did not want to become climate refugees; they want
to be able to live in their homes, or move with dignity and
through regular channels without leaving everything behind,

VI. the key objective of our generation is to invest in climate and

environmental solutions for our planet so that people will not
have to leave their homes in a forced way in the future.
The Paris Agreement offers anchorage for climate action that
considers human mobility to avert, minimize and address
displacement in the context of climate change.

24
VII. To maximize the efforts of holders of power to resolve cases
that are occurring or will occur.

VIII. To prevent substantive psychological conditions to the victims

IX. To provide relevant protection for climate migrants and

facilitate migration strategies in response to environmental
factors for countries cooperating with power institutions

CONS:

I. Climate migrants change their status to climate refugees,

which will carry out complicated protocols,

II. Causing an increase in population which can increase the risk

of crime and poverty,

III. disrupts economic stability,

IV. It can lead to the exclusion of categories of people who are in

need of protection, especially the poorest migrants who move
because of a mix of factors and would not be able to prove the
link to climate and environmental factors,

V. might be a terribly lengthy political process and countries

might not have an appetite for it,

VI. Many responses can come from migration management and

policy as highlighted already in the 2011 International
Dialogue on Migration and the recently adopted Global

25
 Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. The Nansen
Initiative that was launched to look at gaps in protection for
people being displaced across borders by disasters, after
undertaking thematic and regional consultations also
concluded with a document that proposes a “toolkit” of
migration policies rather than recommending the
establishment of a new status for these people.

VII. Could lead to human right violations.

In conclusion, both pros and cons are logically considered by both resources
and the writer’s for learning purposes. In order to sorting next step for
people to be more aware and knowledgeable about human rights and the
affect of climate change.

26
REFERENCES

https://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/press_fact
sh_science.pdf
https://www.who.int/environmental_health_emergencies/natural_events
/en/
https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/06/lets-talk-
about-climate migrants-not-climate-refugees/
https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php?id=5866
https://www.iom.int/about-iom
https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/mecc_outlook.pdf
https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/training-manual

27
ATTACHMENT
CASE STUDY I:

In 2018 alone, 17.2 million new displacements associated with disasters

in 148 countries and territories were recorded (IDMC) and drought
displaced 764,000 people in Somalia, Afghanistan and several other
countries.

“Many people who were displaced cannot return home. The drought in
Somalia is happening all the time. People have no way to
recover,” said Halima, a 30-year-old mother of three displaced in Somalia
because of the drought.
“When the grass is not enough, movement increases. In the spring, many
migrants moved from the south to the north. There is no other way to

28
 overcome climate change. All the people wish to survive with their
animals and come to a place where they can fatten their
livestock,” said Mr. Chinbat, a herder of Sergelen soum in Mongolia,
where the adverse effects of climate change are impacting the
migration of herders.

Rubia (40) sits on a banana raft inside her house which is waist deep in flood
water. Her husband is a farmer and they have three children. They came to
this house five years ago after they lost their own land. ‘Shifting house during
floods or river erosion is hard but losing your land is a completely different
experience, it is indescribable pain.’ Kestiar Char, Sariakandi.
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/06/lets-talk-
about-climate-migrants-not-climate-refugees/

29
CASE STUDY II :
How climate change is pushing Central American migrants to the US
Lauren Markham
The northern triangle of Central America, the largest source of asylum
seekers crossing the US border, is deeply affected by environmental
degradation

if you live in an agricultural zone, come from a long line of farmers and can’t
reliably harvest your crops any more, what else is there to do but leave?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/06/us-mexico-
immigration-climate-change-migration

30
CASE STUDY III :

1. WORLD
2. INDONESIA
3. 66 PEOPLE HAVE DIED IN INDONESIA'S DEVASTATING
FLOODS. HERE'S WHAT TO KNOW

66 People Have Died in Indonesia's Devastating Floods. Here's

What to Know

The death toll from severe flooding in and around the Indonesian
capital of Jakarta has risen to 66 as parts of the country continue to reel
from heavy rain that began on New Year’s Eve. Landslides and flash
floods have displaced more than 36,000 in Jakarta and the nearby
provinces of West Java and Banten, according to the ASEAN
Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA).

These are the worst floods Indonesia has seen since 2013, when at
least 29 people died in the aftermath of torrential rains. The disaster,
experts say, underscores the impacts of climate change in a country
with a capital city that is sinking so quickly that officials are working to
move it to another island. The floods are also threatening to exacerbate
the already severe wealth inequality that plagues the Southeast Asian
nation.

With more rainfall expected over the coming weeks, here’s what to
know about deadly floods in Jakarta.
https://time.com/5761097/jakarta-indonesia-floods/

31
https://www.google.com/url?
sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiNu8XjlornAhXUc30KHYlsBv4
QjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcoconuts.co%2Fjakarta
%2Fnews%2Fjakarta-floods-subsided-within-25-minutes-sewage-
system-capable-of-handling-heavy-rain-official
%2F&psig=AOvVaw1sgliHrk35_617lBzzV6ik&ust=1579334804015332

32
https://www.google.com/url?
sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwioyszzlornAhWTcn0KHRt3DuIQjRx
6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Felevenmyanmar.com%2Fnews%2Fdeath-
toll-from-jakarta-flooding-rises-to-21-more-rain-
expected&psig=AOvVaw1sgliHrk35_617lBzzV6ik&ust=1579334804015332

33