12 Risks With Infinite Impact Full Report 1 PDF

Artificial Extreme Future Bad
Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance
Global Artificial
Intelligence
Extreme
Climate Change
Challenges Ecological
Catastrophe
Nanotechnology Nuclear War
12
Artificial
Risks that threaten Ecological

Catastrophe
Nanotechnology
Intelligence
human civilisation
Artificial
Intelligence
Extreme
Climate Change
Future Bad
Global Governance
Global
Pandemic
Ecological
Catastrophe
Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano

Catastrophe
Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System

Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse
Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global

Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic
Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid

Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact
Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System

Ecological
Intelligence Nanotechnology
Climate Change Nuclear War
Global Governance Super-volcano
Pandemic Synthetic
Collapse
Catastrophe Biology
Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano

Catastrophe
Artificial Extreme
Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic
Intelligence Unknown
Climate Change
Catastrophe Biology Consequences
The case for a new risk category

Ecological
Catastrophe
Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic
Biology
Ecological Nanotechnology
Catastrophe

Artificial
Intelligence
Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown

Catastrophe Biology Consequences
Ecological
Catastrophe

Published February 2015 by Global Challenges Foundation.
The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect those of Global Challenges Foundation.
Any inaccuracies in the report remain the responsibility of the authors.
The material and the geographical designations in this report do
not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of
Global Challenges Foundation concerning the legal status of any country,
territory, or area, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
For comments and/or queries on this report, please contact the co-authors:
Dennis Pamlin
Executive Project Manager Global Risks
Global Challenges Foundation
dennis@globalchallenges.org
globalchallenges.org
or
Stuart Armstrong
James Martin Research Fellow
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
University of Oxford
stuart.armstrong@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
fhi.ox.ac.uk
The main authors of this report are Dennis collaborative approach where many people important role. Patrick McSharry,
Pamlin, Executive Project Manager, Global have provided invaluable contributions. Head of Smith School’s Catastrophe
Challenges Foundation and Dr Stuart Risk Financing research area, provided
Armstrong, James Martin Research Fellow, The authors would therefore like to thank invaluable input regarding complex
Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin a few people in particular. First and systems and ways that the economic
School & Faculty of Philosophy, University foremost László Szombatfalvy, Chairman system can respond to infinite impacts.
of Oxford. Dr Stuart Armstrong wrote of the Global Challenges Foundation, Alex Kirby also played a key part as
the chapter covering the twelve global whose work is the basis for this report he did so much more than proofread
challenges, under the direction of Dennis and whose guidance on all levels has the text; the report would hardly be
Pamlin who served as project manager been invaluable. The rest of the board possible to read without his help. Various
and himself wrote and edited the rest of of the Global Challenges Foundation additional edits and changes were made
the report. Seth Baum, Executive Director have also contributed in many different by Peter Brietbart.
of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute ways, in particular, Johan Rockström has
and affiliate researcher at the Center for provided important input regarding the Others that must be mentioned, including
Research on Environmental Decisions, structure and methodology. Outside the those who participated in the workshop
Columbia University, also played an foundation Prof Nick Bostrom, Professor on 14 January 2014, at the Future of
important role as he helped develop & Director of the Future of Humanity Humanity Institute (FHI), University of
the methodology chapter regarding the Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty Oxford and the workshop at the Munich
selection of the global challenges with of Philosophy, University of Oxford, who RE office in London on 15 January 2014,
potentially infinite impacts as well as initiated the possibility of working with and helped provide input regarding the
providing helpful input throughout the the Future of Humanity Institute at the economic and finance aspects, include
process. The report is the result of a University of Oxford, played a particularly (in alphabetical order):
Dr Nick Beckstead, Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Kennette Benedict, Executive Director and Publisher of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Oliver Bettis, Pricing Actuary, Munich RE and Fellow of the Chartered Insurance Institute and the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries
Dr Eric Drexler, Academic Visitor, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Madeleine Enarsson, Transformative Catalyst, 21st Century Frontiers
Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Senior Academic Manager, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford and Executive Director,
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge
Martin Hellman, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University
Pan Jiahua, Director of the Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS);
Professor of economics at CASS; Vice-President Chinese Society for Ecological Economics;
Member of the National Expert Panel on Climate Change and National Foreign Policy Advisory Committee, China
Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) at Anglia Ruskin University
Nick Mabey, Chief Executive and Founding Director of E3G (Third Generation Environmentalism)
Jennifer Morgan, Founder & Co-Convener, The Finance Lab
Prof Vincent Müller, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Robert de Neufville, Professional Associate, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
Prof Toby Ord, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Jules Peck, Founding Partner, Jericho Chambers; Trustee, New Economics Foundation
Dr Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
Nick Silver, Director of Callund Consulting and founder and director of the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI)
Andrew Simms, Author, Fellow at the New Economics Foundation and Chief Analyst at Global Witness
Andrew Snyder-Beattie, Academic Project Manager, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
James Taplan, Principal Sustainability Advisor, Forum for the Future
Raj Thamotheram, CEO, Preventable Surprises
Nathan Wolfe, Director of Global Viral and the Lorry I. Lokey Visiting Professor in Human Biology at Stanford University
Liang Yin, Investment Consultant at Towers Watson
Global Challenges – Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation – The case for a new category of risks 1
Contents
Contents
Executive Summary 4
Preface 26
1. Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation 28
2. Risks with infinite impact: A new category of risks 30
2.1 Report structure .............................................................................................................37

2.2 Goals ...............................................................................................................................38
2.3 Global challenges and infinite impact .........................................................................40
2.3.1 Definition of infinite impact .......................................................................................40
2.4 Methodology...................................................................................................................49
2.4.1 A scientific review of key literature ...........................................................................50
2.4.2 A review of organisations working on global challenges.......................................52
2.4.3 Workshops ..................................................................................................................55
2.5 The list of global risks....................................................................................................55
2.5.1 Risks not included .......................................................................................................56
2.6 Relationship between impact levels beyond the infinite threshold ...........................58
3. Twelve Global Challenges 60
3.1 Current risks / 3.1.1 Extreme Climate Change ............................................................62

3.1.2 Nuclear War ................................................................................................................70
3.1.3 Ecological Catastrophe ..............................................................................................78
3.1.4 Global Pandemic ........................................................................................................ 84
3.1.5 Global System Collapse ..............................................................................................90
3.2 Exogenic risk / 3.2.1 Major Asteroid Impact .............................................................96
3.2.2 Super-volcano.............................................................................................................102
3.3 Emerging risk / 3.3.1 Synthetic Biology .....................................................................108
3.3.2 Nanotechnology .........................................................................................................114
3.3.3 Artificial Intelligence ................................................................................................. 120
3.3.4 Unknown Consequences ...........................................................................................126
3.4 Global policy risk / 3.4.1 Future Bad Global Governance .........................................132
2 Global Challenges – Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation – The case for a new category of risks
Contents
4. Relations between global risks 138
4.1 General relations between global risks and their potential impacts ....................... 139
4.2 Specific relations between global risks ........................................................................141
5. Probabilities and uncertainties – an initial overview 142
6. Underlying trends of key importance 170
6.1 Poverty ............................................................................................................................171

6.2 Population growth ........................................................................................................ 173
6.3 Technological development...........................................................................................174
6.4 Demographic changes...................................................................................................175
7. Possible ways forward ................................................................................................ 176
Endnotes 184
Appendix 1 – Global Challenges Bibliography 198

Appendix 2 – Workshops 206
Notes 208
Executive Summary
Executive
Summary
This is the executive summary

of a report about a limited number
of global risks that pose a threat
to human civilisation, or even
possibly to all human life.
Executive Summary
With such a focus it may surprise some readers to find that

the report’s essential aim is to inspire action and dialogue as
well as an increased use of the methodologies used for risk
assessment. The real focus is not on the almost unimaginable
impacts of the risks the report outlines. Its fundamental
purpose is to encourage global collaboration and to use this
new category of risk as a driver for innovation.
The idea that we face a number of global challenges

threatening the very basis of our civilisation at the beginning
of the 21st century is well accepted in the scientific community,
and is studied at a number of leading universities.I However,
there is still no coordinated approach to address this group of
challenges and turn them into opportunities.
I http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk
History: It is only 70 years ago that

Edward Teller, one of the
Robert Oppenheimer, who
led the Manhattan Project to
the LA-602 greatest physicists of his time,
with his back-of-the-envelope
develop the nuclear bomb,
halted the project to see
document calculations, produced results whether Teller’s calculations
that differed drastically from were correct. The resulting
all that had gone before. His document, LA-602: Ignition of
calculations showed that the the Atmosphere with Nuclear
explosion of a nuclear bomb – a Bombs, concluded that Teller
creation of some of the brightest was wrong. But the sheer
minds on the planet, including complexity drove the assessors
Teller himself – could result in to end their study by writing
a chain reaction so powerful that “further work on the
that it would ignite the world’s subject [is] highly desirable”.
atmosphere, thereby ending The LA-602 document can
human life on Earth. be seen as the first global
challenge report addressing
a category of risks where the
worst possible impact in all
practical senses is infinite.
Executive Summary
This report has, to the best of the authors’ knowledge,

12 Global created the first list of global risks with impacts that
risks for all practical purposes can be called infinite. It is
also the first structured overview of key events related
to such challenges and has tried to provide initial rough
quantifications for the probabilities of these impacts.
In the next phase of the project, these placeholder
estimates will be improved and refined by a variety of
methods (expert elicitation, fault trees, simulations, etc.)
appropriate to each specific risk.
The report conducts its exploration It is worth noting that complex

within carefully defined bounds, systems are often stable only within
resulting in a list of twelve risks with certain boundaries outside which
potentially infinite outcomes. the system can collapse and rapidly
change to a new stable state. Such a
There were many challenges which collapse can trigger a process where
might have been included on the change continues for a long time until
list because of their ability to pose a new stable state is found. None of
severe damage to humanity. They the risks in this report are likely to
were excluded for one or more of result directly in an infinite impact,
three reasons: and some cannot do so physically.
All the risks however are big enough to
1. Limited impact – tsunamis, for reach a threshold where the social and
example, and chemical pollution. ecological systems become so unstable
that an infinite impact could ensue.
2. No effective countermeasures –
the report focuses on promoting This is a report about two extremes,
effective interventions and so not one. It is about how a better
ignores challenges where nothing understanding of the magnitude of
useful can be done to prevent or the challenges can help the world
mitigate the impact, as with to address the risks it faces, and
nearby gamma-ray bursts. can help to create a path towards
more sustainable development. It
3. Included in other challenges – is a scientific assessment about
many challenges are already the possibility of oblivion, certainly,
covered by others, or are very but more than that it is a call for
similar to them. Population growth, action based on the assumption that
for one, is significant for climate humanity is able to rise to challenges
change and ecosystem and turn them into opportunities.
catastrophe, but without direct We are confronted with possibly
large-scale impacts of its own. the greatest challenge ever and
our response needs to match this
through global collaboration in new
and innovative ways.
Extreme Future Bad Global
Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic
Executive Summary

Extreme
Nanotechnology
Extreme Future Bad
Nuclear
Future War
Bad Global
Super-volcano
Global
Climate
Climate Change
Change Global Governance
Global Governance Pandemic
Pandemic
Global
Global Global
Global System
System
Artificial Major
Major Asteroid
Asteroid
Extreme
ance
nce Pandemic
Pandemic Collapse
Collapse
Intelligence Impact
Impact
Climate Change
Ecological
Global
Global GlobalSystem
Global System
Nanotechnology MajorAsteroid
Major
Nuclear Asteroid
War
ance
ance Catastrophe
Pandemic
Pandemic Collapse
Collapse Impact
Impact
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology Nuclear
Nuclear War
War Super-volcano
Super-volcano
Global System Major Asteroid

Collapse Impact
Super-volcano
Super-volcano Ecological
Synthetic
Synthetic Unknown
Nanotechnology
Unknown
Catastrophe
Biology
Biology Consequences
Consequences
Super-volcano
Super-volcano Synthetic
Synthetic Unknown
Unknown
Biology
Consequences
Synthetic
Artificial
Artificial Unknown
Extreme
Extreme Future
FutureBad
Bad
Biology
Intelligence
Intelligence Consequences
Climate
ClimateChange
Change Global
GlobalGovernance
Governance
Executive Summary
The four main goals of this report are to acknowledge,

The goals inspire, connect and deliver.
of the report
The first of the report’s goals – The third goal is to connect
acknowledging the existence of different groups at every level,
risks with potentially infinite impact – so that leaders in different sectors
seeks to help key stakeholders to connect with each other to
acknowledge the existence of the encourage collaboration. This will
category of risks that could result need a specific focus on financial
in infinite impact, and to show them and security policy, where significant
that we can reduce or even eliminate risks combine to demand action
most of them. beyond the incremental.
The second goal is to inspire by The fourth goal is to deliver actual

showing the practical action that strategies and initiatives that
is taking place today. This report produce actual results. The report
seeks to show that helping to meet is a first step and its success will
these global challenges is perhaps ultimately be measured only on how
the most important contribution it contributes to concrete results.
anyone can make today, and
highlights concrete examples to The report will have achieved its
inspire a new generation of leaders. goals when key decision-makers
recognise the magnitude of the
possible risks and our ability to
reduce or even eliminate most
of them.
The goals
1. to acknowledge the existence of
risks with potentially infinite impact.
2. to inspire by showing the practical
action that is taking place today.
3. to connect different groups at every level.
4. to deliver actual strategies and initiatives
that produce actual results.
Executive Summary
The first part of the report introduces and defines the

Report global challenges and includes the methodology for
structure selecting them.
The third part of the report discusses
The second part is an overview of the relationship between the different
the twelve challenges and key challenges, as action to address
events that illustrate strategic work one can increase the risk of
to address them. It also lists for each another. Many solutions can also
challenge five important factors that address multiple challenges, so
influence its probability or impact. there are significant benefits from
The challenges are divided into four understanding how they are linked.
different categories:
The fourth part is an overview, the first
– current challenges includes those ever to the authors’ knowledge, of the
which currently threaten humanity probabilities of global challenges with
because of its economic and potentially infinite impacts.
technological development;
The fifth part presents some of the
– exogenic challenges are those most important underlying trends
where the basic probability of an that influence the challenges, which
event is beyond human control, but often build up slowly to a threshold
where the probability and magnitude where very rapid changes can
of the impact can be influenced; ensue.
– emerging challenges could both
help reduce the risks associated The sixth part presents an overview
with current challenges and also of possible ways forward.
result in infinite impacts;
– the last of the twelve challenges are

global policy challenges, threats
arising from future global governance
as it resorts to destructive policies
in response to the categories of
challenge listed above.
Executive Summary
The idea that there may be risks where the impact can be
A new category described as infinite, defined as the end of human civilisation
of global risk or even human life, is not new. However, it excites relatively
little political or academic interest, and the way it is treated
in popular culture makes a serious discussion more difficult.
For several reasons the potentially The review of literature indicates

infinite impacts of the challenges in that, under a business as usual
this report are not as well known as scenario, new risks with potential
they should be. One reason is the infinite impact are probably
way that extreme impacts are often inseparable from the rapid
masked by most of the theories and technological development in
models used by governments and areas like synthetic biology,
business today. nanotechnology and AI.
Climate change is a good example, Most risks are linked to increased

where almost all of the focus is on knowledge, economic and technical
the most likely scenarios, and there development that has brought many
are few public studies that include benefits. E.g. climate change is a
the low-probability high-impact result from the industrial revolution
scenarios. In most reports about and fossil fuel based development.
climate impacts, those caused by The increased potential for global
warming beyond five or six degrees pandemics is one consequence of
Celsius are omitted from tables an integrated global economy where
and graphs. Other aspects that goods and services move quickly
contribute to this relative invisibility internationally. Similar challenges can
include the fact that extreme be expected for synthetic biology,
impacts are difficult to translate nanotechnology and AI.
into monetary terms, as they have
a global scope and often require a There are remedies, including
time-horizon of a century or more. technological and institutional,
They cannot be understood simply by for all risks. But they will require
linear extrapolation of current trends, collaboration of a sort humanity has
and they lack historical precedents. not achieved before, and the creation
There is also the fact that the of systems which can deal with
measures required to significantly problems pre-emptively. It is important
reduce the probability of infinite to understand that much of the
impacts will be radical compared to knowledge and many tools that we
a business-as-usual scenario. have, and will develop, can be
both a risk and a solution to risks
A scientific approach requires us depending on context.
to base our decisions on the whole
probability distribution.
Risk = Probability x Impact
Executive Summary
There is a clear ethical dimension to the concept of infinite

Infinite impacts impact, because a very small group alive today can take
and thresholds decisions that will fundamentally affect all future generations.
Using traditional economic tools events that could result first in a

is problematic and can generate
Risk = Probability x Impact civilisation collapse, and then later
disagreement over issues such result in an infinite impact. Such
as discounting, which the report thresholds are especially important
examines in some detail, considering to recognise in a complex and
for example the role of tipping points. interconnected society where
resilience is decreasing.
The report distinguishes between the
concepts of infinite impact – where A collapse of civilisation is defined
civilisation collapses to a state of as a drastic decrease in human
great suffering and does not recover, population size and political/
or a situation where all human life economic/social complexity, globally
ends – and infinite impact threshold – and for an extended time.
an impact that can trigger a chain of
Normal Risks New Category

Traditional measures Requires new measures and tools
and tools applicable
Threshold
probability
0 impact
Executive Summary
In order to establish a list of global challenges with

Methodology potentially infinite impact, a methodological triangulation
was used, consisting of:
– A quantitative assessment of Two workshops were arranged

relevant literature. where the selection of challenges
was discussed, one with risk experts
– A strategic selection of relevant
in Oxford at the Future of Humanity
organisations and their priorities.
Institute and the other in London
– A qualitative assessment with the with experts from the financial sector.
help of expert workshops. No challenge was excluded at the
workshops, but one was added: the
participants agreed to include Global
System Collapse as a category.
Relevant literature
Identification of credible sources: search relevant literature
in academic literature included in World of Knowledge and Google Scholar.
1
Estimations of impact
Only literature where there is some estimation of impact that
indicates the possibility of an infinite impact is included.
Leading organisations’ priorities

2
In order to increase the probability of covering all relevant risks an overview
of leading organisations' work was conducted. This list was then compared with the initial list
and subjected to the same filter regarding the possibility to affect the probability or impact.
3
Possibility of addressing the risk
From the risks gathered from literature and organisations, only those where the
probability or impact can be affected by human actions are included.
4
Expert review
Qualitative assessment: Expert review in order to increase the
probability of covering all relevant global risks.
5
List of risks
Result: List of risks with potentially infinite impacts.
Executive Summary
Quick overview
of each risk
Current Current Current

risk risk risk

ificial Extreme Future Bad

Ecological Global
Nanotechnology Global
Artificial
Nuclear System
War ExtremeMajor Asteroid
Super-volcano Future Bad
Synthetic Global
Unknown Global System Major Asteroid
elligence Climate Change Global Governance
Catastrophe Pandemic Collapse
Intelligence ClimateImpact
Biology Pandemic
Consequences Collapse Impact
Current Current Exogenic

risk risk risk
ological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Ecological

Synthetic Unknown
Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown
tastrophe Artificial Extreme Future Bad Catastrophe
Biology
Global Consequences
Global System Major Asteroid Biology Consequences
al Extreme
Ecological Future
Artificial Bad
ExtremeNuclear War Global
Future Bad System
Super-volcano Major
Global Asteroid
Synthetic Global System
Unknown Major Asteroid
ence Climate Change
Catastrophe Global Governance
Intelligence Pandemic
Climate Change Collapse
Global Governance Impact
Pandemic
Biology CollapseConsequences Impact
Exogenic Emerging Emerging

risk risk risk
gical Nanotechnology Nuclear War

Ecological Super-volcano
Nanotechnology Synthetic
Nuclear War Unknown
Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown
trophe Catastrophe Biology Consequences Biology Consequences
al Bad
ture Global
Extreme Global
Future BadSystem Major Asteroid
Global Global System Major Asteroid Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global
gence
obal Governance Pandemic
Pandemic Collapse Impact Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic
gical
clear War Super-volcano
Nuclear War Super-volcano
Unknown Synthetic Unknown Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano
trophe Biology Consequences Biology Consequences Catastrophe
Emerging Emerging Global Policy

risk risk risk
me Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid

te Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact
technology Nuclear War

Artificial Super-volcano
Extreme Synthetic
Future Bad Unknown
Global ArtificialGlobal System ExtremeMajor Asteroid Future Bad Global Global System
Intelligence Climate Change Biology
Global Governance Consequences
Pandemic Collapse
Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse
Ecological Unknown
Catastrophe
Executive Summary
Current risk
Extreme
5 key Climate Change
factors:
Extreme
1 The uncertainties in As for all risks there are uncertainties Mass deaths and famines, social
Climate Change
climate sensitivity models, in the estimates, and warming could collapse and mass migration are
including the tail. be much more extreme than the certainly possible in this scenario.
2 The likelihood - or not - of middle estimates suggest. Feedback Combined with shocks to the
global coordination on loops could mean global average agriculture and biosphere-dependent
controlling emissions. temperatures increase by 4°C or industries of the more developed
even 6°C over pre-industrial levels. countries, this could lead to global
3 The future uptake of
Feedbacks could be the release conflict and possibly civilisation
low carbon economies,
of methane from permafrost or the collapse. Further evidence of the
including energy, mobility
dieback of the Amazon rainforest. risk comes from signs that past
and food systems.
The impact of global warming would civilisation collapses have been
4 Whether technological be strongest in poorer countries, driven by climate change.
innovations will improve which could become completely
or worsen the situation, uninhabitable for the highest range
and by how much. of warming.
5 The long-term climate
impact caused by
global warming.
Current risk
5 key Nuclear War

factors:
Nuclear War
1 How relations between The likelihood of a full-scale nuclear plunge temperatures below freezing
current and future war between the USA and Russia around the globe and possibly also
nuclear powers develop. has probably decreased. Still, the destroy most of the ozone layer.
2 The probability of potential for deliberate or accidental The detonations would need to
accidental war. nuclear conflict has not been start firestorms in the targeted
removed, with some estimates cities, which could lift the soot up
3 Whether disarmament
putting the risk in the next century into the stratosphere. The risks are
efforts will succeed in
or so at around 10%. A larger impact severe and recent models have
reducing the number of
would depend on whether or not the confirmed the earlier analysis. The
nuclear warheads.
war triggered what is often called a disintegration of the global food
4 The likelihood of a nuclear winter or something similar – supply would make mass starvation
nuclear winter. the creation of a pall of smoke high and state collapse likely.
5 The long-term effects in the stratosphere that would
of a nuclear war on
climate, infrastructure
and technology. A new
category of global risk.
Executive Summary
Current risk
Global
5 key Pandemic
factors:
Global
1 What the true probability An epidemic of infectious disease (and influenza has demonstrated
Pandemic
distribution for pandemics that has spread through human antigenic shift, the ability to combine
is, especially at the tail. populations across a large region or features from different viruses), its
2 The capacity of international even worldwide. There are grounds death toll would be extreme.
health systems to deal for suspecting that such a high- The world has changed considerably,
with an extreme pandemic. impact epidemic is more probable making comparisons with the past
than usually assumed. All the problematic.Today it has better
3 How fast medical research
features of an extremely devastating sanitation and medical research, as
can proceed in an
disease already exist in nature: well as national and supra-national
emergency.
essentially incurable (Ebola), nearly institutions dedicated to combating
4 How mobility of goods and always fatal (rabies), extremely diseases. But modern transport
people, as well as population infectious (common cold), and and dense human population allow
density, will affect pandemic long incubation periods (HIV). If infections to spread much more
transmission. a pathogen were to emerge that rapidly, and slums can be breeding
5 Whether humans can somehow combined these features grounds for disease.
develop novel and effective
anti-pandemic solutions.
Current risk
Ecological
5 key Collapse
factors:
Ecological
1 The
Collapse
extent to which This is where an ecosystem suffers the damage and (unlike previous,
humans are dependent on a drastic, possibly permanent, localised collapses) the whole world
the ecosystem. reduction in carrying capacity for is potentially at risk.
2 Whether there will be all organisms, often resulting in It seems plausible that some human
effective political measures mass extinction. Humans are part lifestyles could be sustained in a
taken to protect the of the global ecosystem and so relatively ecosystem independent
ecosystem on a large scale. fundamentally depend on it. Species way, at relatively low costs. Whether
extinction is now far faster than the this can be achieved on a large
3 The likelihood of the
historic rate, and attempts to scale in practice, especially during
emergence of sustainable
quantify a safe ecological operating a collapse, will be a technological
economies.
space place humanity well outside it. challenge and whether it is something
4 The positive and negative Many of the problems of ecological we want is an ethical question.
impacts on the ecosystems degradation interact to multiply
of both wealth and poverty.
5 The long-term effects of
an ecological collapse
on ecosystems.
Executive Summary
Current risk
Global System
5 key Collapse
factors:
GlobalWhether
System global system An economic or societal collapse structure of the network – even if
1
Collapse
collapse will trigger on the global scale. The term has each component of the network is
subsequent collapses or been used to describe a broad reliable. This gives rise to systemic
fragility in other areas. range of conditions. Often economic risk, when parts that individually may
2 What the true trade-off is collapse is accompanied by social function well become vulnerable
between efficiency chaos, civil unrest and sometimes a when connected as a system to a
and resilience. breakdown of law and order. Societal self-reinforcing joint risk that can
collapse usually refers to the fall or spread from part to part, potentially
3 Whether effective
disintegration of human societies, affecting the entire system and
regulation and resilience
often along with their life support possibly spilling over to related
can be developed.
systems. The world economic and outside systems. Such effects have
4 Whether an external political system is made up of been observed in ecology, finance
disruption will trigger many actors with many objectives and critical infrastructure such
a collapse. and many links between them. as power grids. The possibility of
5 Whether an internal event Such intricate, interconnected collapse becomes more acute when
will trigger a collapse. systems are subject to unexpected several independent networks
system-wide failures caused by the depend on each other.
Exogenic risk
Major Asteroid
5 key Impact
factors:
Major Asteroid
1 Whether
Impact
detection and Large asteroid collisions – with There has been some discussion
tracking of asteroids and objects 5 km or more in size – about possible methods for
other dangerous space happen about once every twenty deflecting asteroids found on a
objects is sufficiently million years and would have an collision course with the planet.
exhaustive. energy a hundred thousand times Should an impact occur the main
2 How feasible it is to deflect greater than the largest bomb ever destruction will not be from the
an asteroid. detonated. A land impact would initial impact, but from the clouds
destroy an area the size of a nation of dust projected into the upper
3 Whether measures such as
like Holland. Larger asteroids could atmosphere. The damage from such
evacuation could reduce
be extinction-level events. Asteroid an “impact winter” could affect
the damage of an impact.
impacts are probably one of the best the climate, damage the biosphere,
4 The short- and long-term understood of all risks in this report. affect food supplies, and create
climate consequences of a political instability.
collision.
5 Whether our current
civilisation could adapt to a
post-impact world.
Executive Summary
Exogenic risk
5 key Super-volcano
factors:
Super-volcano
Whether countries will Any volcano capable of producing while the Toba eruption around
1
coordinate globally an eruption with an ejecta volume 70,000 years ago is thought by some
against super-volcano risk greater than 1,000 km3. This is to have cooled global temperatures
and damage. thousands of times larger than for over two centuries.
2 The predictability of super- normal eruptions. The danger from The effect of these eruptions could
volcanic eruptions. super-volcanoes is the amount of be best compared with that of a
aerosols and dust projected into the nuclear war. The eruption would
3 How directly destructive
upper atmosphere. This dust would be more violent than the nuclear
an eruption would be.
absorb the Sun’s rays and cause explosions, but would be less likely
4 The effectiveness of a global volcanic winter. The Mt to ignite firestorms and other
general mitigation efforts. Pinatubo eruption of 1991 caused secondary effects.
5 How severe the long-term an average global cooling of surface
climate effects would be. temperatures by 0.5°C over three years,
Emerging risk
Synthetic
5 key Biology
factors:
Synthetic
1 The true destructive potential
Biology
The design and construction of This could emerge through military
of synthetic biology, especially biological devices and systems or commercial bio-warfare, bio-
the tail risk. for useful purposes, but adding terrorism (possibly using dual-use
2 Whether the field will be human intentionality to traditional products developed by legitimate
successfully regulated, or pandemic risks. Attempts at researchers, and currently
successfully manage to regulation or self-regulation are unprotected by international legal
regulate itself. currently in their infancy, and may regimes), or dangerous pathogens
not develop as fast as research leaked from a lab. Of relevance is
3 Whether the field will usher
does. One of the most damaging whether synthetic biology products
in a new era of bio-warfare.
impacts from synthetic biology become integrated into the global
4 Whether the tools of synthetic would come from an engineered economy or biosphere. This could
biology can be used pathogen targeting humans or a lead to additional vulnerabilities (a
defensively to create effective crucial component of the ecosystem. benign but widespread synthetic
counter measures. biology product could be specifically
5 The dangers of relying targeted as an entry point through
on synthetic biologists to which to cause damage).
estimate the danger of
synthetic biology.
Executive Summary
Emerging risk
5 key Nanotechnology
factors:
Nanotechnology
The timelinefor nanotech Atomically precise manufacturing, Of particular relevance is whether
1
development. the creation of effective, high- nanotechnology allows the
2 Which aspects of throughput manufacturing processes construction of nuclear bombs.
nanotech research will that operate at the atomic or But many of the world’s current
progress in what order. molecular level. It could create problems may be solvable with the
new products – such as smart or manufacturing possibilities that
3 Whether small groups can
extremely resilient materials – and nanotechnology would offer, such
assemble a weapons
would allow many different groups as depletion of natural resources,
arsenal quickly.
or even individuals to manufacture a pollution, climate change, clean
4 Whether nanotech tools wide range of things. This could lead water and even poverty. Some have
can be used defensively to the easy construction of large conjectured special self-replicating
or for surveillance. arsenals of conventional or more nanomachines which would be
5 Whether nanotech tools or novel weapons made possible by engineered to consume the entire
weaponry are made to be atomically precise manufacturing. environment. The misuse of medical
outside human control. nanotechnology is another risk scenario.
Emerging risk
Artificial And if these motivations do not
5 key Intelligence
detail the survival and value of
humanity, the intelligence will be
factors: driven to construct a world without
humans. This makes extremely
Artificial
1 The reliability of AI
Intelligence
AI is the intelligence exhibited by intelligent AIs a unique risk, in that
predictions. machines or software, and the extinction is more likely than lesser
2 Whether there will be a branch of computer science that impacts. On a more positive note,
single dominant AI or a develops machines and software an intelligence of such power could
plethora of entities. with human-level intelligence. easily combat most other risks
3 How intelligent AIs will The field is often defined as “the in this report, making extremely
become. study and design of intelligent intelligent AI into a tool of great
4 Whether extremely agents”, systems that perceive their potential. There is also the possibility
intelligent AIs can be environment and act to maximise of AI-enabled warfare and all the
controlled, and if so, how. their chances of success. Such risks of the technologies that AIs
5 Whether whole brain extreme intelligences could not would make possible. An interesting
emulations (human minds easily be controlled (either by the version of this scenario is the
in computer form) will groups creating them, or by some possible creation of “whole brain
arrive before true AIs. international regulatory regime), emulations”: human brains scanned
and would probably act to boost and physically represented in a
their own intelligence and acquire machine. This would make the AIs
maximal resources for almost all into properly human minds, possibly
initial AI motivations. alleviating a lot of problems.
Executive Summary
Emerging risk
Unknown
5 key Consequences
factors:
Unknown
1 Whether there will be These represent the unknown generic probability of intelligent life
Consequences
extensive research into unknowns in the family of global (self-)destruction, which includes
unknown risks and their catastrophic challenges. They uncertain risks. Anthropic reasoning
probabilities. constitute an amalgamation of all the can also bound the total risk of human
2 The capacity to develop risks that can appear extremely extinction, and hence estimate the
methods for limiting unlikely in isolation, but can combine unknown component. Non risk-
the combined probability to represent a not insignificant specific resilience and post-disaster
of all uncertain risks. proportion of the risk exposure. One rebuilding efforts will also reduce
3 The capacity for estimating resolution to the Fermi paradox – the damage from uncertain risks,
“out of-model” risks. the apparent absence of alien life as would appropriate national and
4 The culture of risk. in the galaxy – is that intelligent life international regulatory regimes.
assessment in potentially destroys itself before beginning to Most of these methods would also
risky areas. expand into the galaxy. Results that help with the more conventional,
5 Whether general, non- increase or decrease the probability known risks, which badly need
risk-specific mitigation or of this explanation modify the more investment.
resilience measures are
implemented.
Global Policy risk
Future Bad
5 key Global Governance
factors:
Future Bad
1 How the severity
Global Governance
of non- There are two main divisions in Two issues with governance
deadly policy failures governance disasters: failing to disasters are first, the difficulty
can be compared with solve major solvable problems, and of estimating their probability,
potential casualties. actively causing worse outcomes. and second, the dependence of
2 Whether poor governance An example of the first would be the impact of these disasters on
will result in a collapse failing to alleviate absolute poverty; subjective comparative evaluations:
of the world system. of the second, constructing a it is not impartially obvious how to
global totalitarian state. Technology, rank continued poverty and global
3 How mass surveillance
political and social change may totalitarianism against billions of
and other technological
enable the construction of new casualties or civilisation collapse.
innovations will affect
forms of governance, which may be
governance.
either much better or much worse.
4 Whether there will be new
systems of governance in
the future.
5 Whether a world
dictatorship may end up
being constructed.
Executive Summary
Two things make the understanding of the relation

Relations between between the global risks particularly important.
global risks
1. Impacts: The risks are 2. Specific measures to address a
interconnected in different ways. risk: Global risks often require
Often the situation resembles a significant changes, which will
set of dominoes: if one falls, many result in situations where measures to
follow. Even small impacts can reduce the risk in one area affect
start a process where different the probability and/or the impact in
risks interact. other areas, for better or worse.
ALL
RISKS
first risk worsens second risk
solving first risk improves second risk
both of the above
Executive Summary
In order to better understand the relations between

The technical different global risks, work could start to analyse
difficulty of similarities and differences.
reducing the risk Below is an example of an overview
and the difficulty of how different global risks can be

plotted depending on the technical
of collaboration difficulty of reducing the risk and the

difficulty of collaborating to reduce it.
technical difficulty of reducing risk
collaboration difficulty of reducing risk
Executive Summary
As the different challenges are very different and the

Uncertainties status of probability estimates varies significantly, the
initial probability numbers are provided together with
estimates regarding:
1. Understanding
1. Understanding 2. Data
2. Data 3. Existing probability
1. Understanding
of1.sequence
Understanding
of sequence 2. availability
Data 2. Data
availability 3. estimation
Existing probability
of sequence
of sequence availability
availability estimation
parts
all parts
data
uncertainty
allparts
with
small uncertainty
all data
all data
with with
calculations
calculations
all dataall
all parts
all parts
all
small uncertainty
all data
calculations
small
most parts
parts
datadata
most data
parts
with withwith
uncertainty
most
most
uncertainty
most parts
most parts
most
most
calculations
most data
most data
calculations
large uncertainty
largelarge
best guesses calculations
some parts
some parts
some data
some data
by experts
partsparts
data data
best guesses
some parts
by experts
some data
somesome
somesome
best guesses
by experts
no estimates
none at all
at allat all none at all
no data
no data
no estimates
no estimates
no data
none at all
nonenone
no data
no data
degree of events
degree from today’s
of events actions
from today’s actions amount of data
amount ofto make
data probability
to make probability kind of estimation and uncertainty
to infinite impact
to infinite impact assessment on all on
assessment relevant stepssteps
all relevant
of theof
sequence
the sequence
degree of events from today’s actions amount of data to make probability kind of estimation and uncertainty
to infinite impact assessment on all relevant steps
degree of events
degreefromof events
today’s
from
actions
today’s actions of the sequence
amount of data
amount
to make
of data
probability
to make probabilitykind of estimation and uncertainty
to infinite impact
to infinite impact assessment assessment
on all relevant
on all
steps
relevant steps
of the sequence
of the sequence
Executive Summary
These estimates are an attempt to assemble existing

Probability estimates in order to encourage efforts to improve
the numbers. They express estimates of probabilities over
100 years, except in the case of extreme climate change,
where the time frame is 200 years.
Global challenges need to be seen in Population growth – the UN’s estimates
the light of trends which help to shape range from 6.8 billion people by 2100
the wider society. These include: to a high-variant projection of 16.6 bn
(which would require the resources of
Poverty – although it has fallen, 10 Earth-like planets to provide everyone
it could increase again. This is with a modern Western lifestyle).
especially relevant to climate change Other trends include technological
and pandemics. development and demographic changes.
n/a
n/a
0.00003%
n/a 0.0001% 0.00013% 0.005% 0.01% 0.1% 0-10%
Probability of infinite impact (%)
n/a
n/a 0.002% 0.01% 0.5% 0.8% 1% 5% 0-10%
Probability of reaching or exceeding the infinite threshold (%)
0.0000001% 0.00001% 0.0001% 0.001% 0.01% 0.1% 1% 10% 100%

one in a one one one in a one in one one one one
hundred in ten in a hundred ten in a in a in ten in one
million million million thousand thousand thousand hundred
Executive Summary
There are ten areas that could help mitigate immediate

Possible threats while also contributing to a future global
ways forward governance system capable of addressing global
risks with a potential infinite impact:
1. Global challenges
leadership networks
2. Better quality risk

assessment for
global challenges
3. Development of
early warning systems
4. Encouraging
visualisation of
complex systems
5. Highlighting
early movers
6. Including the whole

probability distribution
7. Increasing
the focus on
the probability
of extreme events
8. Encouraging
appropriate language
to describe extreme risks
9. Establishing
a Global Risk and
Opportunity Indicator
to guide governance
10. Explore the possibility

of establishing a
Global Risk Organisation (GRO)
Executive Summary
Preface
Preface
Over the last century the world has changed in ways that humanity
has never experienced within our history. The changes are being caused
by the extremely rapid development of science and technology, by the
population explosion that has quadrupled the number of people on Earth,
and by a greatly improved but very resource-demanding standard of
living in developed countries.
The consequences of these changes are very diverse:
– Less poverty, better health and longer life in many countries.

– Globalisation, the most important effect of which is the emergence
of a shattered global community where all people’s behaviour
affects each other’s vital interests.
– New global risks of previously unseen scope.
This means that we are now forced to live with the risk of various kinds of
extreme disaster with the potential of severely affecting billions of people.
Preface
In this Yearbook from the Global of global catastrophes are we decision-making system be
Challenges Foundation, “risk” is prepared to accept? This question created - with or without a global
defined as the potential damage has not yet appeared on the legal system?
that can be caused by an extreme political agenda. The reason is that
disaster multiplied by the probability both scientific reports and the media We are also convinced that
that it will occur. choose to focus on the most likely knowledge of these risks is not only
outcome of these risks. a prerequisite for reducing them, but
For the risk of exceptional damage, also a responsibility which we owe
the probability of occurrence In the absence of risk analysis both to our children, grandchildren and to
is usually small, or very small, decision-makers and the public remain all future generations. It is up to us
compared with other risks in society, blissfully unaware that the probabilities to decide whether these threats can
but the effects can be absolutely of certain global catastrophes are possibly be reduced or not! These
dire, meaning they must be taken significantly higher than we would efforts do not only demand sacrifices
very seriously. accept in our everyday lives, where on our part. They also create
incomparably smaller values are at stake. opportunities for everyone to make a
We do not know what the exact Another, very important reason for significant contribution to improving
nature of what these risks are or how not acting against acknowledged the future of humanity:
they may strike. Some are obvious, global risks is that they require global
others may sound like pure science responses and therefore global – For world leaders this means
fiction, but they have led many decisions. assuming their responsibility and
scientists to regard them as real starting to work towards common,
threats - and therefore it is best to Regrettably there is no global global decision-making.
include them in the calculations. decision-making body capable of – Scientists need to focus their
that, no globally functioning legal research on areas that will help us take
With few exceptions, humans have system, and so there is a lack of effective measures against the risks.
created these risks. There are only effective tools for dealing with these – Companies should make
a few risks where we are not the challenges. The result: the risks are sustainability a business model.
cause, for example natural disasters increased in the absence of effective – And there is a special opportunity
such as an asteroid impact. measures to counter them. for all of us - that when choosing
our politicians and suppliers (of
We could eliminate some of these This report wants, on a strictly goods and services), we should
risks (e.g. nuclear war). In other scientific basis, to identify and consider their ambition to eliminate
cases, all we can do is minimise the describe the global risks of extreme or at least minimise global risks
likelihood of damage, since we have disasters, and also to report the latest and to create an efficient decision-
already crossed the threshold that developments affecting these risks making system that can manage
can lead to serious consequences and measures to face up to them. these risks.
(with climate change, for example,
where we have already emitted such The Global Challenges Foundation’s Finally, I would on behalf of the
high levels of greenhouse gases that goal in this report is to accelerate Global Challenges Foundation extend
there are small but not insignificant effective counter-actions against my sincere gratitude to both Dennis
likelihoods of significant damage). global events with the potential for Pamlin, editor of the report, and to all
For other risks we cannot affect large-scale unwanted effects by the scientists and other experts who
the likelihood of them occurring, deepening both decision makers’ and have contributed their research and /
only minimise damage (with super- the public’s insights into the risks, and or valuable comments.
volcanic eruptions, for instance). also to inspire both debate and well-
However, here we can build social judged decisions on these questions:
and ecological resilience so as to
reduce the damage. – What probabilities of extreme
disasters are acceptable?
For decisions concerning – Which are the optimal Laszlo Szombatfalvy
countermeasures the first important countermeasures? Founder and Chairman,
question is: What level of probability – How can an effective global The Global Challenges Foundation
1. Twelve risks threaten human civilisation
1. Twelve risks that

threaten human civilisation
“Tell me, and I’ll forget.

Show me, and I may remember.
Involve me, and I’ll understand.”
Xunzi
1. Twelve risks threaten human civilisation
Current Current Current

risk risk risk

ificial Extreme Future Bad

Ecological Global
Artificial
Nuclear System
War ExtremeMajor Asteroid
Super-volcano Future Bad
Synthetic Global
Unknown Global System Major Asteroid
elligence Climate Change Global Governance
Catastrophe Pandemic Collapse
Biology Pandemic
Consequences Collapse Impact
Current Current Exogenic

risk risk risk
ological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Ecological
Synthetic Unknown
Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown
tastrophe Catastrophe
Biology Consequences Biology Consequences

al Extreme
Ecological Future
Artificial Bad
ExtremeNuclear War Global
Future Bad System
Super-volcano Major
Global Asteroid
Synthetic Global System
Unknown Major Asteroid
ence Climate Change
Catastrophe Global Governance
Intelligence Pandemic
Pandemic
Biology CollapseConsequences Impact
Exogenic Emerging Emerging

gical risk
Nanotechnology Nuclear War
Ecological Super-volcano
Nanotechnology
risk
Synthetic
Nuclear War Unknown
Super-volcano Synthetic
risk
Unknown
trophe Catastrophe Biology Consequences Biology Consequences
al Bad
ture Global
Extreme Global
Future BadSystem Major Asteroid
Global Global System Major Asteroid Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global
gence
obal Governance Pandemic
Pandemic Collapse Impact Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic
gical
clear War Super-volcano
Nuclear War Super-volcano
Unknown Synthetic Unknown Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano
trophe Biology Consequences Biology Consequences Catastrophe
Emerging Emerging Global Policy

risk risk risk
me Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid

te Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact
technology Nuclear War

Artificial Super-volcano
Extreme Synthetic
Future Bad Unknown
Global ArtificialGlobal System ExtremeMajor Asteroid Future Bad Global Global System
Intelligence Climate Change Biology
Global Governance Consequences
Pandemic Collapse
Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse
Ecological Unknown
2. Risks with infinite impact: A new category of risks
2. Risks with infinite impact:

A new category of risks
“Most risk management is really just

advanced contingency planning and
disciplining yourself to realise that,
given enough time, very low
probability events not only can happen,
but they absolutely will happen.”
Lloyd Blankfein,
Goldman Sachs CEO,
July 2013 1
A new group of global risks What is risk?

This is a report about a limited Risk is the potential of losing something Risk = Probability × Impact
number of global risks – that can of value, weighed against the potential
be identified through a scientific to gain something of value. Every Impacts where civilisation
and transparent process – with day we make different kinds of risk collapses to a state of great
impacts of a magnitude that pose assessments, in more or less rational suffering and do not recover,
a threat to human civilisation, or ways, when we weigh different options or a situation where all human
even possibly to all human life. against each other. life end, are defined as infinite
as the result is irreversible and
With such a focus it may surprise The basic idea of risk is that lasts forever.
some readers to find that the report’s an uncertainty exists regarding
essential aim is to inspire action and the outcome and that we must
dialogue as well as an increased find a way to take the best The slightly tilted bell curve is a
use of the methodologies used for possible decision based on our common probability distribution,
risk assessment. understanding of this uncertainty.3 but the shape differs and in reality is
seldom as smooth as the example.
The real focus is not on the almost To calculate risk the probability of an
unimaginable impacts of the risks outcome is often multiplied by the The total area under the curve
the report outlines. Its fundamental impact. The impact is in most cases always represents 100 percent, i.e.
purpose is to encourage global measured in economic terms, but it all the possible outcomes fit under
collaboration and to use this new can also be measured in anything the curve. In this case (A) represents
category of risk as a driver we want to avoid, such as suffering. the most probable impact. With a
for innovation. much lower probability it will be a
At the heart of a risk assessment close to zero impact, illustrated by
The idea that we face a number is a probability distribution, often (B). In the same way as in case B
of global challenges threatening described by a probability density there is also a low probability that
the very basis of our civilisation at function4; see figure X for a the situation will be very significant,
the beginning of the 21st century graphic illustration. illustrated by (C).
is well accepted in the scientific
community, and is studied at a
number of leading universities.2
But there is still no coordinated

approach to address this group
of challenges and turn them into
opportunities for a new generation
of global cooperation and the
creation of a global governance
system capable of addressing the
greatest challenges of our time. A
This report has, to the best of our
knowledge, created the first science-
based list of global risks with a
potentially infinite impact and has
made the first attempt to provide an
initial overview of the uncertainties C
related to these risks as well
probability
as rough quantifications for the D

probabilities of these impacts. B
0 impact
Figure 1:Probability density function
The impacts (A), (B) and (C) all On a probability curve the impacts in Not only could a better
belong to the same category, normal this report are usually at the very far understanding of the unique
impacts: the impacts may be more right with a relatively low probability magnitude of these risks help
or less serious, but they can be dealt compared with other impacts, address the risks we face, it could
with within the current system. illustrated by (D) in Figure 2. also help to create a path towards
more sustainable development.
The impacts in this report are Often they are so far out on the tail
however of a special kind. These of the curve that they are not even The group of global risks discussed
are impacts where everything will included in studies. in this report are so different from
be lost and the situation will not most of the challenges we face that
be reversible, i.e challenges with For each risk in this report the they are hard to comprehend.
potentially infinite impact. probability of an infinite impact is
very low compared to the most But that is also why they can help us
In insurance and finance this kind of likely outcome. Some studies even to build the collaboration we need
risk is called “risk of ruin”, an impact indicate that not all risks in this report and drive the development of further
where all capital is lost.5 This impact can result in an infinite impact. But a solutions that benefit both people
is however only infinite for the significant number of peer-reviewed and the planet.
company that is losing the money. reports indicate that those impacts
From society’s perspective, that is not only can happen, but that their As noted above, none of the risks in
not a special category of risk. probability is increasing due to this report is likely to result directly
unsustainable trends. in an infinite impact, and some are
In this report the focus is on the “risk probably even physically incapable
of ruin” on a global scale and on a The assumption for this report is that of doing so. But all are so significant
human level, in the worst case this by creating a better understanding that they could reach a threshold
is when we risk the extinction of our of our scientific knowledge regarding impact able to create social and
own species. risks with a potentially infinite impact, ecological instability that could
we can inspire initiatives that can turn trigger a process which could lead to
these risks into drivers for innovation. an infinite impact.
For several reasons the potentially

infinite impacts of the risks in this
Figure 2: Probability density function with tail highlighted
report are not as well known as
they should be. One reason is the
way that extreme impacts are often
masked by most of the theories and
models used by governments and
business today.
For example, the probability of

A extreme impacts is often below what
is included in studies and strategies.
The tendency to exclude impacts

below a probability of five percent
is one reason for the relative
“invisibility” of infinite impacts.
C The almost standard use of a 95%
confidence interval is one reason
probability
D why low-probability high-impact

B events are often ignored.6
0 impact
Climate change is a good example, There is also the fact that the It should also be stressed that
where almost all of the focus is on measures required to significantly uncertainty is not a weakness in
the most likely scenarios and there reduce the probability of infinite science; it always exists in scientific
are few studies that include the low- impacts will be radical compared to work. It is a systematic way of
probability high-impact scenarios. In a business-as-usual scenario with a understanding the limitations of the
most reports about climate impacts, focus on incremental changes. methodology, data, etc.9 Uncertainty
the impacts caused by warming is not a reason to wait to take action
beyond five or six degrees Celsius The exact probability of a specific if the impacts are serious. Increased
are even omitted from tables and impact is difficult or impossible to uncertainty is something that risk
graphs even though the IPCC’s estimate.8 However, the important experts, e.g. insurance experts and
own research indicates that the thing is to establish the current security policy experts, interpret as a
probability of these impacts are magnitude of the probabilities and signal for action.
often between one and five percent, compare them with the probabilities
and sometimes even higher.7 for such impacts we cannot accept. A contrasting challenge is that our
A failure to provide any estimate for cultural references to the threat of
Other aspects that contribute to this these riks often results in strategies infinite impacts have been dominated
relative invisibility include the fact and priorities defined as though the throughout history by religious groups
that extreme impacts are difficult to probability of a totally unacceptable seeking to scare society without any
translate into monetary terms, they outcome is zero. An approximate scientific backing, often as a way
have a global scope, and they often number for a best estimate also to discipline people and implement
require a time-horizon of a century makes it easier to understand that unpopular measures. It should not
or more. They cannot be understood a great uncertainty means the have to be said, but this report is
simply by linear extrapolation actual probability can be both obviously fundamentally different as
of current trends, and they lack much higher and much lower than it focuses on scientific evidence from
historical precedents. the best estimate. peer-reviewed sources.
Infinite impact
The concept infinite impact refers to two aspects in particular; the terminology is not meant to imply a literally infinite impact
(with all the mathematical subtleties that would imply) but to serve as a reminder that these risks are of a different nature.
Ethical
These are impacts that threaten the very survival of humanity and life on Earth – and therefore can be seen as being
infinitely negative from an ethical perspective. No positive gain can outweigh even a small probability for an infinite
negative impact. Such risks require society to ensure that we eliminate these risks by reducing the impact below an
infinite impact as a top priority, or at least do everything we can to reduce the probability of these risks. As some
of these risks are impossible to eliminate today it is also important to discuss what probability can right now be
accepted for risks with a possible infinite impact.
Economic
Infinite impacts are beyond what most traditional economic models today are able to cope with. The impacts
are irreversible in the most fundamental way, so tools like cost-benefit assessment seldom make sense. To use
discounting that makes infinite impacts (which could take place 100 years or more from now and affect all future
generations) close to invisible in economic assessments, is another example of a challenge with current tools. So
while tools like cost-benefit models and discounting can help us in some areas, they are seldom applicable in the
context of infinite impacts. New tools are needed to guide the global economy in an age of potential infinite impacts.
See chapter 2.2.2 for a more detailed iscussion.
An additional challenge in This report emphasises the need for in most cases, but it is unscientific
acknowledging the risks outlined an open and democratic process in and dangerous if different levels of
in this report is that many of the addressing global challenges with probability are presented as equal.
traditional risks including wars and potentially infinite impact. Hence,
violence have decreased, even though this is a scientifically based invitation The tendency to compare the
it might not always looks that way in to discuss how we as a global most probable climate impact
media.10 So a significant number of community can address what could with the possibility of a low or no
experts today spend a substantial be considered the greatest challenges impact also results in a situation
amount of time trying to explain of our time. where low-probability high-impact
that much of what is discussed as outcomes are often totally ignored.
dangerous trends might not be as The difficulty for individual scientists An honest and scientific approach
dangerous as we think. For policy to communicate a scientific risk is to, whenever possible, present
makers listening only to experts in approach should however not be the whole probability distribution
traditional risk areas it is therefore underestimated. Scientists who and pay special attention to
easy to get the impression that global today talk about low-probability unacceptable outcomes.
risks are becoming less of a problem. impacts, that are serious but still
far from infinite, are often accused The fact that we have challenges
The chain of events that could of pessimism and scaremongering, that with some probability might be
result in infinite impacts in this even if they do nothing but highlight infinite and therefore fundamentally
report also differ from most of the scientific findings.11 To highlight infinite irreversible is difficult to comprehend,
traditional risks, as most of them impacts with even lower probability and physiologically they are
are not triggered by wilful acts, can therefore be something that a something our brains are poorly
but accidents/mistakes. Even the scientist who cares about his/her equipped to respond to, according to
probabilities related to nuclear war reputation would want to avoid. evolutionary psychologists.12
in this report are to a large degree It is hard for us as individuals to
related to inadvertent escalation. In the media it is still common grasp that humanity for the first
As many of the tools to analyse and to contrast the most probable time in its history now has the
address risks have been developed climate impact with the probability capacity to create such catastrophic
to protect nations and states from that nothing, or almost nothing, outcomes. Professor Marianne
attacks, risks involving accidents will happen. The fact that almost Frankenhaeuser, former head of
tend to get less attention. nothing could happen is not wrong the psychology division, Karolinska
Roulette and Russian roulette

When probability and normal risks are discussed the example of a casino and roulette is often used. You bet
something, then spin the wheel and with a certain probability you win or lose. You can use different odds to discuss
different kinds of risk taking. These kinds of thought experiment can be very useful, but when it comes to infinite
risks these gaming analogies become problematic.
For infinite impact a more appropriate analogy is probably Russian roulette. But instead of “normal” Russian
roulette where you only bet your own life you are now also betting everyone you know and everyone you don’t
know. Everyone alive will die if you lose. There will be no second chance for anyone as there will be no future
generations; humanity will end with your loss. What probability would you accept for different sums of money if you
played this version of Russian roulette?
Most people would say that it is stupid and – no matter how low the probability is and no matter how big the
potential win is – this kind of game should not be played, as it is unethical. Many would also say that no person
should be allowed to make such a judgment, as those who are affected do not have a say. You could add that most
of those who will lose from it cannot say anything as they are not born and will never exist if you lose.
The difference between ordinary roulette and “allhumanity Russian roulette” is one way of illustrating the difference
in nature between a “normal” risk that is reversible, and a risk with an infinite impact.
Institute, Stockholm, put it this way: curve exists. With climate change The LA-602 document can be seen
“Part of the answer is to be found in this includes discussions about how as the first scientific global risk
psychological defence mechanisms. sensitive the climate is, how much report addressing a category of risks
The nuclear threat is collectively greenhouse gas will be emitted, and where the worst possible impact in
denied, because to face it would what impacts that different warmings all practical senses is infinite.19 Since
force us to face some aspects of the will result in. the atomic bomb more challenges
world’s situation which we do not have emerged with potentially
want to recognise.” 13 Just as it is important not to ignore infinite impact. Allmost all of these
challenges with potentially infinite new challenges are linked to the
This psychological denial may be impacts, it is also important not to increased knowledge, economic
one reason why there is a tendency use them to scare people. Dramatic and technical development that
among some stakeholders to images and strong language are best has brought so many benefits. For
confuse “being optimistic” with avoided whenever possible, as this example, climate change is the
denying what science is telling us, group of risks require sophisticated result of the industrial revolution and
and ignoring parts of the probability strategies that benefit from rational development that was, and still is,
curve.14 Ignoring the fact that there is arguments. Throughout history based heavily on fossil fuel.
strong scientific evidence for serious we have seen too many examples
impacts in different areas, and when threats of danger have been The increased potential for global
focusing only on selected sources damagingly used to undermine pandemics is the result of an
which suggest that the problem may important values. integrated global economy where
not be so serious, is not optimistic. It goods and services move quickly
is both unscientific and dangerous.15 around the world, combined
The history of infinite impacts: with rapid urbanisation and high
A scientific approach requires us The LA-602 document population density.
to base our decisions on the whole The understanding of infinite impacts
probability distribution. Whether it is is very recent compared with most In parallel with the increased number
possible to address the challenge or of our institutions and laws. It is only of risks with possible infinite impact,
not is the area where optimism and 70 years ago that Edward Teller, our capacity to analyse and solve
pessimism can make people look at one of the greatest physicists of his them has greatly increased too.
the same set of data and come to time, with his back-of-the-envelope Science and technology today
different conclusions. calculations, produced results that provides us with knowledge and
differed drastically from all that tools that can radically reduce the
Two things are important to keep had gone before. His calculations risks that historically have been
in mind: first, that there is always a indicated that the explosion of a behind major extinctions, such as
probability distribution when it comes nuclear bomb – a creation of some pandemics and asteroids.
to risk; second, that there are two of the brightest minds on the planet,
different kinds of impacts that are of including Teller himself – could result Recent challenges like climate
interest for this report. The probability in a chain reaction so powerful that it change, and emerging challenges
distribution can have different shapes would ignite the world’s atmosphere, like synthetic biology and
but in simplified cases the shape thereby ending human life on Earth.16 nanotechnology, can to a large
tends to look like a slightly modified degree be addressed by smart use
clock (remember figure 1). Robert Oppenheimer, who led the of new technologies, new lifestyles
Manhattan Project to develop the and institutional structures. It will be
In the media it can sound as though nuclear bomb, halted the project to hard as it will require collaboration
experts argue whether an impact, see whether Teller’s calculations were of a kind that we have not seen
for example a climate impact or a correct.17 The resulting document, LA- before. It will also require us to
pandemic, will be dangerous or not. 602: Ignition of the Atmosphere with create systems that can deal with
But what serious experts discuss is Nuclear Bombs, concluded that Teller the problems before they occur. The
the probability of different oucomes. was wrong, But the sheer complexity fact that the same knowledge and
They can disagree on the shape of drove them to end their assessment tools can be both a problem and a
the curve or what curves should be by writing that “further work on the solution is important to understand
studied, but not that a probability subject [is] highly desirable”.18 in order to avoid polarisation.
Within a few decades, or even sooner, The point of departure of this report Creating innovative and resilient
many of the tools that can help us is the fact that we now have the systems rather than simply
solve the global challenges of today knowledge, economic resources and managing risk would let us focus
will come from fields likely to provide technological ability to reduce most more on opportunities. But the
us with the most powerful instruments of the greatest risks of our time. resilience needed require moving
we have ever had – resulting in their away from legacy systems is likely
own sets ofRisk
challenges. Conversely, the infinite impacts
= Probability x Impact to be disruptive, so an open and
we face are almost all unintended transparent discussion is needed
Synthetic biology, nanotechnology results of human ingenuity. The regarding the transformative
and artificial intelligence (AI) are all reason we are in this situation is solutions required.
rapidly evolving fields with great that we have made progress in
potential. They may help solve many many areas without addressing
of today’s main challenges or, if not unintended low-probability high-
guided in a benign direction, may impact consequences.
result in catastrophic outcomes.
Figure 3: Probability density function with tail and threshold highlighted
Normal Risks New Category

Traditional measures Requires new measures and tools
and tools applicable
Threshold
probability
0 impact
2.1 Report structure
2.1 Report structure “Current challenges” is the first The third part of the report
category and includes the risks that discusses the relationship
currently threaten humanity due to between the different risks. Action
The first part of the report is an our economic and technological to reduce one risk can increase
introduction where the global risks development - extreme climate another, unless their possible links
with potential infinite impact are change, for example, which depends are understood. Many solutions
introduced and defined. This part on how much greenhouse gas we emit. are also able to address multiple
also includes the methodology for risks, so there are significant
selecting these risks, and presents “Exogenic challenges” includes benefits from understanding how
the twelve risks that meet this risks where the basic probability one relates to others. Investigating
definition. Four goals of the report of an event is beyond human these correlations could be a start,
are also presented, under the control, but where the probability but correlation is a linear measure
headings “acknowledge”, “inspire”, and magnitude of the impact can and non-linear techniques may
“connect” and “deliver”. be influenced - asteroid impacts, be more helpful for assessing the
for example, where the asteroids’ aggregate risk.
The second part is an overview of paths are beyond human control
the twelve global risks and key but an impact can be moderated by The fourth part is an overview, the
events that illustrate some of the either changing the direction of the first ever to our knowledge, of the
work around the world to address asteroid or preparing for an impact. uncertainties and probabilities of
them. For each challenge five global risks with potentially infinite
important factors that influence the “Emerging challenges” includes impacts. The numbers are only
probability or impact are also listed. areas where technological rough estimates and are meant to
development and scientific be a first step in a dialogue where
The risks are divided into four assessment indicate that they methodologies are developed and
different categories depending on could both be a very important estimates refined.
their characteristics. contribution to human welfare and
help reduce the risks associated The fifth part presents some of
with current challenges, but could the most important underlying
also result in new infinite impacts.20 trends that influence the global
AI, nanotechnology and synthetic challenges, which often build up
biology are examples. slowly until they reach a threshold
and very rapid changes ensue.
“Global policy challenge” is
a different kind of risk. It is a The sixth and final part presents an
probable threat arising from future overview of possible ways forward.
global governance as it resorts to
destructive policies, possibly in
response to the other challenges
listed above.
2.2 Goals
2.2 Goals But we now face the possibility that

Goal 1: Acknowledge
even tools created with the best of
intentions can have a darker side
Establish a category of risks with too, a side that may threaten human That key stakeholders,
potentially infinite impact. civilisation, and conceivably the influencing global challenges,
Before anything significant can continuation of human life. acknowledge the existence of
happen regarding global risks with the category of risks that could
potentially infinite impacts, their result in infinite impact. They
existence must be acknowledged. This is what all decision-makers need should also recognice that the
to recognise. Rather than succumbing list of risks that belong to this
Rapid technological development to terror, we need to acknowledge that category should be revised as
and economic growth have delivered we can let the prospect inspire and new technologies are developed
unprecedented material welfare to drive us forward. and our knowledge increases.
billions of people in a veritable tide Regardless of the risks included,
of utopias.21 the category should be given
special attention in all processes
and decisions of relevance. The
report also seeks to demonstrate
to all key stakeholders that we
have the capacity to reduce, or
even eliminate, most of the risks
in this category.
Show concrete action that is It does so by combining information

taking place today. about the risks with information about Goal 2: Inspire
This report seeks to show that it is individuals and groups who has
not only possible to contribute to made a significant contribution by That policy makers inspire
reducing these risks, but that it is turning challenges into opportunities. action by explaining how the
perhaps the most important thing probabilities and impacts
anyone can spend their time on. By highlighting concrete examples can be reduced and turned
the report hopes to inspire a new into opportunities. Concrete
generation of leaders. examples of initiatives should
be communicated in different
networks in order to create
ripple effects, with the long-term
goal that all key stakeholders
should be inspired to turn these
risks into opportunities for
positive action.
2.2 Goals
Support new meetings between Even with those risks where many
interested stakeholders. groups are involved, such as climate Goal 3: Connect
The nature of these risks spans change and pandemics, very few
countries and continents; they today address the possibility of That leaders in different sectors
require action by governments and infinite impact aspects. connect with each other to
politicians, but also by companies, encourage collaboration. A
academics, NGOs, and many other Even fewer groups address the links specific focus on financial and
groups. The magnitude of the between the different risks. security policy where significant
possible impacts requires not only risks combine to demand
leaders to act but above all new There is also a need to connect action beyond the incremental
models for global cooperation and different levels of work, so that local, is required.
decision-making to ensure delivery. regional, national and international
The need for political leadership is efforts can support each other when
therefore crucial. it comes to risks with potentially
infinite impacts.
Identify and implement strategies In order to deliver results it is

and initiatives. important to remember that global Goal 4: Deliver
Reports can acknowledge, inspire governance to tackle these risks is
and connect, but only people can the way we organise society in order That concrete strategies are
deliver actual results. The main to address our greatest challenges. developed that allow key
focus of the report is to show that It is not a question of establishing a stakeholders to identify, quantify
actual initiatives need to be taken “world government”, it is about the and address global challenges
that deliver actual results. way we organise ourselves on all as well as gather support for
levels, from the local to the global. concrete steps towards a well-
Only when the probability of an functioning global governance
infinite impact becomes acceptably The report is a first step and should system. This would include
low, very close to zero, and/or when be seen as an invitation to all tools and initiatives that can
the maximum impact is significantly responsible parties that can affect help identify, quantify and
reduced, should we talk about the probability and impact of risks reduce risks with potentially
real progress. with potentially infinite impacts. infinite impacts.
But its success will ultimately be
measured only on how it contributes
to concrete results.
2.3 Global challenges and infinite impact
2.3 Global challenges can be affected, for example with Over the last few years a greater
nuclear war, where the number/size of understanding of low probability
and infinite impact weapons influences the impact and or unknown probability events has
tensions between countries affects helped more people to understand
This chapter first introduces the the probability. the importance of looking beyond the
concept of infinite impact. It then most probable scenarios. Concepts
describes the methodology used to Other risks, such as a supervolcano, like “black swans” and “perfect
identify challenges with an infinite are included as it is possible to affect storms” are now part of mainstream
impact. It then presents risks with the impact through various mitigation policy and business language.27
potentially infinite impact that the methods, even if we currently cannot
methodology results in. affect the probability. Risks that are Greater understanding of the
susceptible to human influence are technology and science of complex
indirectly linked, because efforts to systems has also resulted in a new
2.3.1 Definition of address one of them may increase or understanding of potentially disruptive
infinite impact decrease the likelihood of another. events. Humans now have such an
impact on the planet that the term
The specific criterion for including a “the anthropocene” is being used,
risk in this report is that well-sourced
2.3.2 Why use “infinite even by mainstream media like The
science shows the challenge can have impact” as a concept? Economist.28 The term was introduced
the following consequences: 22 in the 90s by the Nobel Prize winner
The concept of infinity was chosen Paul Crutzen to describe how humans
1. Infinite impact: When civilisation as it reflects many of the challenges, are now the dominant force changing
collapses to a state of great especially in economic theory, to the Earth’s ecosystems.29
suffering and does not recover, or a addressing these risks as well as the
situation where all human life ends. need to question much of our current The idea to establish a well defined
The existence of such threats is way of thinking. category of risks that focus on risks
well attested by science.23 with a potentially infinite impact
2. Infinite impact threshold – an The concept of a category of risks that can be used as a practical tool
impact that can trigger a chain of based on their extreme impact is by policy makers is partly inspired
events that could result first in a meant to provide a tool to distinguish by Nick Bostrom’s philosophical
civilisation collapse, and then later one particular kind of risk from others. work and his introduction of a risk
result in an infinite impact. Such The benefit of this new concept taxonomy that includes an academic
thresholds are especially important should be assessed based on two category called “existential risks”.30
to recognise in a complex and things. First, does the category exist,
interconnected society where and second, is the concept helpful in Introducing a category with risks
resilience is decreasing.24 addressing these risks? that have a potentially infinite
impact is not meant to be a
A collapse of civilisation is defined as a The report has found ample evidence mathematical definition; infinity is a
drastic decrease in human population that there are risks with an impact thorny mathematical concept and
size and political/economic/social that can end human civilisation and nothing in reality can be infinite.31 It
complexity, globally for an extended even all human life. The report further is meant to illustrate a singularity,
time.25 The above definition means the concludes that a new category of when humanity is threatened, when
list of challenges is not static. When risk is not only meaningful but also many of the tools used to approach
new challenges emerge, or current timely. We live in a society where most challenges today become
ones fade away, the list will change. global risks with potentially infinite problematic, meaningless, or even
impacts increase in both number counterproductive.
An additional criterion for including and probability according to multiple
risks in this report is “human studies. Looking ahead, many The concept of an infinite impact
influence”. Only risks where humans emerging technologies which will highlights a unique situation where
can influence either the probability, certainly provide beneficial results, humanity itself is threatened and the
the impact, or both, are included. For might also result in an increased very idea of value and price collapses
most risks both impact and probability probability of infinite impacts.26 from a human perspective, as the
price of the last humans also can be Ethical aspects of infinite impact represents 1/4200, or 0.024%, of our
seen to be infinite. This is not to say The basic ethical aspect of infinite potential history. So our generation
that those traditional tools cannot still impact is this: a very small group has the option of risking everything
be useful, but with infinite impacts alive today can take decisions and annulling 99.976% of our
we need to add an additional set of that will fundamentally affect all potential history. Comparing 0.024%
analytical tools. future generations. with the days of a person living to 100
years from the day of conception,
Some of the risks, including nuclear “All future generations” is not a this would equal less than nine
war, climate change and pandemics, concept that is often discussed, and days and is the first stage of human
are often included in current risk for good reason. All through human embryogenesis, the germinal stage.35
overviews, but in many cases history we have had no tools with a Two additional arguments to treat
their possible infinite impacts are measurable global impact for more potentially infinite impacts as a
excluded. The impacts which are than a few generations. Only in the separate category are: 36
included are in most cases still very last few decades has our potential
serious, but only the more probable impact reached a level where all 1. An approach to infinite impacts
parts of the probability distributions future generations can be affected, cannot be one of trial-and-error,
are included, and the last part of the for the simple reason that we now because there is no opportunity
long tail – where the infinite impact have the technological capacity to to learn from errors. The reactive
is found – is excluded.32 end human civilisation. approach – see what happens,
limit damage, and learn from
Most risk reports do not differentiate If we count human history from the experience – is unworkable. Instead
between challenges with a limited time when we began to practice society must be proactive. This
impact and those with a potential for settled agriculture, that gives us requires foresight to foresee new
infinite impact. This is dangerous, as it about 12,000 years.33 If we make a types of threat and willingness to
can mean resources are spent in ways moderate assumption that humanity take decisive preventative action
that increase the probability of an will live for at least 50 million more and to bear the costs (moral and
infinite impact. years34 our 12,000-year history so far economic) of such actions.
Life Value
The following estimates have been applied to the value of life in the US. The estimates are either for one year of
additional life or for the statistical value of a single life.
– $50,000 per year of quality life (international standard most private and government-run health insurance plans
worldwide use to determine whether to cover a new medical procedure)
– $129,000 per year of quality life (based on analysis of kidney dialysis procedures by Stefanos Zenios and
colleagues at Stanford Graduate School of Business)
– $7.4 million (Environmental Protection Agency)
– $7.9 million (Food and Drug Administration)
– $6 million (Transportation Department)
– $28 million (Richard Posner based on the willingness to pay for avoiding a plane crash)
Source: Wikipedia: Value of life http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life

US EPA: Frequently Asked Questions on Mortality Risk Valuation
http://yosemite.epa.gov/EE%5Cepa%5Ceed.nsf/webpages/MortalityRiskValuation.html
Posner, Richard A. Catastrophe: risk and response. Oxford University Press, 2004
2. We cannot necessarily rely on economic perspective it makes no In cases that do not include infinite
the institutions, morality, social sense. Money helps us to prioritise, impacts, discounting “reflects the
attitudes or national security but with no humans there would be no fact that there are many high-yield
policies that developed from our economy and no need for priorities. investments that would improve the
experience of other sorts of risk. quality of life for future generations.
Infinite impacts are in a different Ignoring, or discounting, future The discount rate should be set so
category. Institutions and individuals generations is actually the only way that our investable funds are devoted
may find it hard to take these risks to avoid astronomical numbers to the most productive uses.” 44 When
seriously simply because they lie for impacts that may seriously there is a potentially infinite impact, the
outside our experience. Our collective affect every generation to come. In focus is no longer on what investments
fear-response will probably be ill- Catastrophe: Risk and Response, have the best rate of return, it is about
calibrated to the magnitude of threat. Richard Posner provides a cost avoiding the ultimate end.
estimate, based on the assumption
Economic aspects of infinite that a human life is worth $50,000, While many economists shy away
impact and discounting resulting in a $300 tn cost for the from infinite impacts, those exploring
In today’s society a monetary value whole of humanity, assuming a the potentially extreme impacts of
is sometimes ascribed to human life. population of six billion. He then global challenges often assume
Some experts use this method to doubles the population number infinite numbers to make their point.
estimate risk by assigning a monetary to include the value of all future Nordhaus for example writes that “the
value to human extinction.37 generations, ending up with $600 tn, sum of undiscounted anxieties would
while acknowledging that “without be infinite (i.e. equal to 1 + 1 +1 + … =
We have to remember that the discounting, the present value of the ∞). In this situation, most of us would
monetary values placed on a human benefits of risk-avoidance measures dissolve in a sea of anxiety about all
life in most cases are not meant would often approach infinity for the the things that could go wrong for
to suggest that we have actually type of catastrophic risk with which distant generations from asteroids,
assigned a specific value to a life. this book is concerned.” 40 wars, out-of-control robots, fat tails,
Assigning a value to a human life is smart dust and other disasters.” 45
a tool used in a society with a limited Discounting for risks that include
supply of resources or infrastructure the possibility of an infinite impact It is interesting that Nordhaus
(ambulances, perhaps) or skills. In differs from risk discounting for less himself provides very good graphs
such a society it is impossible to save serious impacts. For example the that show why the most important
every life, so some trade-off must Stern Review41 prompted a discussion factor when determining actions
be made.38 The US Environmental between its chief author, Nicholas is a possible threshold (see below
Protection Agency explains its use like Stern, and William Nordhaus,42 each Figure 4 and 5). Nordhaus was
this: “The EPA does not place a dollar of whom argued for different discount discussing climate change, but the
value on individual lives. Rather, when levels using different arguments. But role of thresholds is similar for most
conducting a benefit-cost analysis neither discussed a possible infinite infinite impacts. The first figure
of new environmental policies, the climate impact. An overview of the is based on traditional economic
Agency uses estimates of how much discussion by David Evans of Oxford approaches which assume that
people are willing to pay for small Brookes University highlighted some Nature has no thresholds; the second
reductions in their risks of dying from of the differing assumptions.43 graph illustrates what happens with
adverse health conditions that may be the curve when a threshold exists.
caused by environmental pollution.” 39 Two things make infinite impacts special As Nordhaus also notes, it is hard
from a discounting perspective. First, to establish thresholds, but if they
The fact that monetary values for there is no way that future generations are significant all other assumptions
human lives can help to define can compensate for the impact, as they become secondary. The challenge
priorities when it comes to smaller will not exist. Second, the impact is that Nordhaus does not address, and
risks does not mean that they are something that is beyond an individual which is important especially with
suitable for quite different uses. preference, as society will no longer exist. climate change, is that thresholds
Applying a monetary value to the become invisible in economic
whole human race makes little Discounting is undertaken to allocate calculations if they occur far into the
sense to most people, and from an resources in the most productive way. future, even if it is current actions that
unbalance the system and eventually

total discounted
push it over the threshold.46
6 discounted damages
abatement (limited part.)
Note that these dramatic
illustrations rest on assumptions
that the thresholds are still relatively 5
benign, not moving us beyond
tipping points which result in an
4
accelerated release of methane
Share of global income (%)

that could result in a temperature
increase of more than 8 °C, possibly 3
producing infinite impacts.47
Calculating illustrative numbers 2

By including the welfare of future
generations, something that
is important when their very 1
existence is threatened, economic
discounting becomes difficult.
In this chapter, some illustrative
numbers are provided to indicate 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
the order of magnitude of the Global temperature limit (°C)
values that calculations provide
Figure 4: Nordhaus, The Climate Casino: Total cost of different targets assuming limited participation and
when traditional calculations also discounting of future incomes.
include future generations. These
illustrative calculations are only
illustrative as the timespans that
must be used make all traditional total discounted
assumptions questionable to say 20 damages with ripping costs
the least. Still, as an indicator for abatement (limited part.)
why infinite impact might be a good
approximation they might help.
16
As a species that can manipulate
our environment it could be
Share of global income (%)
argued that the time the human 12

race will be around, if we do not
kill ourselves, can be estimated
to be between 1-10 million years
– the typical time period for the 8
biological evolution of a successful
species48 – and one billion years,
the inhabitable time of Earth.49 4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Global temperature limit (°C)
Figure 5: Nordhaus, The Climate Casino: Climate policy with a sharp tipping point at 3.5°C. This shows that the
optimal temperature increase is very close to the threshold. It is constrained on the low side by abatement costs
and on the high side by the sharp increase in damages.
If we assume These numbers can be multiplied For those that are reluctant or unable
many times if a more philosophical to use infinity in calculations and
– 50 million years for the future of and technology-optimistic scenario is are in need of a number for their
humanity as our reference, assumed for how many lives we should formulas, $86 sextillion could be a
– an average life expectancy of 100 include in future generations. The good initial start for the cost of infinite
years50, and following quote is from an article by impacts. But it is important to note
– a global population of 6 billion Nick Bostrom in Global Policy Journal: that this number might be orders of
people51 magnitude smaller than an estimate
– all conservative estimate – , we “However, the relevant figure is not which actually took into account a
have half a million generations how many people could live on more correct estimation of the number
ahead of us with a total of 3 Earth but how many descendants of people that should be included in
quadrillion individuals. we could have in total. One lower future generations as well as the price
bound of the number of biological that should be assigned to the loss of
Assuming a value of $50,000 per life, human life-years in the future the last humans.
the cost of losing them would then be accessible universe (based on
$1.5 ×1020, or $150 quintillion. current cosmological estimates) 2.3.3 Infinite impact
is 1034 years. Another estimate,
threshold (IIT)
This is a very low estimate, and which assumes that future minds
Posner suggests that maybe the will be mainly implemented in
cost of a life should be “written up computational hardware instead As we address very complex systems,
$28 million” for catastrophic risks52. of biological neuronal wetware, such as human civilisation and global
Posner’s calculations where only one produces a lower bound of 1054 ecosystems, a concept as important
future generation is included result in a human-brain-emulation subjective as infinite impact in this report is that
cost of $336 quadrillion. If we include life-years.” 54 of infinity impact threshold. This is the
all future generations with the same impact level that can trigger a chain
value, $28 million, the result is a total Likewise the value of a life, $28 of events that results in the end of
cost of $86 sextillion, or $86 × 1021. million, a value that is based on human civilisation.
an assessment of how individuals
This $86 sextillion is obviously a chose when it comes to flying, can The infinite impact threshold (IIT)
very rough number (using one billion be seen as much too small. This concept represents the idea that
years instead of 50 million would value is based on how much we long before an actual infinite impact
for example require us to multiply value our own lives on the margin, is reached there is a tipping point
the results by 20), but again it is the and it is reasonable to assume that where it (with some probability) is no
magnitude that is interesting. As a the value would be higher than only longer possible to reverse events.
reference there are about 1011 to a multiplication of our own value So instead of focusing only on the
1012 stars in our galaxy, and perhaps if we also considered the risk of ultimate impact it is important to
something like the same number of losing our family, everyone we know, estimate what level of impact the
galaxies. With this simple calculation as well as everyone else on the infinity threshold entails.
you get 1022 to 1024, or 10 to 1,000 planet. In the same way as the cost
sextillion, stars in the universe to increases when a certain product is The IIT is defined as an impact that
put the cost of infinite impacts in short supply, the cost of the last can trigger a chain of events that
when including future generations in humans could be assumed to be could result first in a civilisation
perspective.53 very high, if not infinite. collapse, and then later result in an
infinite impact. Such thresholds are
Obviously, the very idea to put a especially important to recognise in a
price on the survival of humanity complex and interconnected society
can be questioned for good where resilience is decreasing.
reasons, but if we still want to
use a number, $28 million per life
should at least be considered as a
significant underestimation.
Social and ecological systems are Orrell and McSharry also noted The exact level for an infinite impact
complex, and in most complex that “in orthodox economics, the threshold should not be the focus, but
systems there are thresholds where reductionist approach means that rather the fact that such thresholds
positive feedback loops become the economy is seen as consisting exists and that an order of magnitude
self-reinforcing. In a system where of individual, independent agents should be estimated.57 During the
resilience is too low, feedback loops who act to maximise their own process of writing the report, experts
can result in a total system collapse. utility. It assumes that prices are suggested that a relatively quick death
These thresholds are very difficult driven to a state of near-equilibrium of two billion people could be used as
to estimate and in most cases it is by the ‘invisible hand’ of the a tentative number until more research
possible only to estimate their order economy. Deviations from this state is available.58 With current trends
of magnitude. are assumed to be random and undermining ecological and social
independent, so the price fluctuations resilience it should be noted that the
As David Orrell and Patrick McSharry are often modelled using the normal threshold level is likely to become
wrote in A Systems Approach to distribution or other distributions with lower as time progress.
Forecasting: “Complex systems have thin tails and finite variance.”
emergent properties, qualities that
cannot be predicted in advance from The drawbacks of an approach using
knowledge of systems components the normal distribution, or other
2.3.4 Global F-N curves
alone”. According to complexity distributions with thin tails and finite and ALARP
scientist Stephen Wolfram’s principle variance, become obvious when the In the context of global risks with
of computational irreducibility, the only unexpected happens as in the recent potentially infinite impact, the
way to predict the evolution of such credit crunch, when existing models possibility of establishing global F-N
a system is to run the system itself: totally failed to capture the true risks curves is worth exploring. One
“There is no simple set of equations of the economy. As an employee of of the most common and flexible
that can look into its future.” 55 Lehman Brothers put it on August 11, frameworks used for risk criteria
2007: “Events that models predicted divides risks into three bands: 59
would happen only once in 10,000 years
happened every day for three days.” 56 1. Upper: an unacceptable/
intolerable region, where risks are
intolerable except in extraordinary
circumstances and risk reduction
Figure 6: Normal risks and risks with potentially infinite impact.
measures are essential.
Threshold
2. Middle: an ALARP (“as low as
reasonably practicable”) region,
where risk reduction measures
are desirable but may not be
implemented if their cost is
disproportionate to the benefit
achieved.
3. Lower: a broadly acceptable/
Risks with
Normal risks infinite impact
negligible region, where no further
Situation that requires
risk reduction measures are needed.
Traditional measures new measures and tools
and tools applicable The bands are expressed by F-N

curves. When the frequency of events
which cause at least N fatalities is
plotted against the number N on
probability
log–log scales, the result is called an

F-N curve.60 If the frequency scale is
replaced by annual probability, then
0 impact the resultant curve is called an f-N curve.
1.00E-01
Figure 7: Example of F-n curve showing different
levels of risk 61
1.00E-02 Intollerable
1.00E-03
Frequency (Events > N per Yr)
1.00E-04
ALARP
1.00E-05
1.00E-06
1.00E-07
Negligible
1.00E-08
1 10 100 1000 10000
Fatalities (N)
Negligible Intolerable Detailed Analysis
The concept for the middle band

when using F-N curves is ALARP. It Pros Cons
is a term often used in the area of
safety-critical and safety-involved
systems.62 The ALARP principle is that – Clearly shows relationship – Cumulative expression makes
the residual risk should be as low as between frequency and size it difficult to interpret, especially
reasonably practicable. of accident by non-risk specialists
The upper band, the unacceptable/ – Allows judgement on relative – Can be awkard to derive
intolerable region, is usually the area importance of different sizes
above the ALARP area (see figure 8) of accident
By using F-N curves it is also – Slope steeper than -1 – May be difficult to use if criterion
possible to establish absolute impact provides explicit consideration is exceeded in one area but
levels that are never acceptable, of multiple fatality aversion otherwise is well below
regardless of probability (Figure 7. and favours concepts with
Based on an actual F-n Curve lower potential for large
showing an absolute impact level that fatality events
is defined as unacceptable). This has
been done in some cases for local – Allows company to manage – Much debate about criterion lines
projects. The infinite threshold could overall risk exposure from
be used to create an impact limit on portfolio of all existing and
global F-N curves used for global future facilities
challenges in the future. Such an
approach would help governments,
companies and researchers when
they develop new technical solutions
and when investing in resilience.
Instead of reducing risk, such an
approach encourages the building of
systems which cannot have negative
impacts above a certain level.
Figure 9: Pros and cons of F-N curves 63
10 -2
macroeconomics and its challenges in discussed. In one way the name is
10 -3
relation to the kind of impacts that the not very important so long as people
risks in this report focus on. understand the impacts and risks
Further, the name clearly highlights associated with it. Still, a name is
Frequency (F) of Accidents with N or More Fatalities (Per Year)
Unacceptable
10 -4
the unique nature without any symbolic and can either help or make
normative judgements. it more difficult to get support to
10 -5 establish the new category.
ALARP
Still, infinity is an abstract concept
region and it might not be best communicate The work to establish a list of risks
10 -6
the unique group of risks that it covers with infinite impact evolved from
to all stakeholders. In the same way “existential risk”, the philosophical
10 -7 as it can be hard to use singularity to concept that inspired much of the
describe a black hole, it can be difficult work to establish a clearly defined
10 -8 to use infinity to describe a certain risk. group of risks. The reason for not
If people can accept that it is only from using the concept “existential risk
Acceptable
a specific perspective that the infinity and impact” for this category, beside
10 -9
10 100 1000 10000
concept is relevant it could be used the fact that existential impact is
Number of Fatalities (N)
beyond the areas of macroeconomics. also used in academic contexts to
refer to a personal impact, is that the
Figure 8: Example of F-n curve showing an absolute Two other concepts that also have infinite category is a smaller subset
impact level that is defined as unacceptable/
infinite. i.e no level of probability is acceptable been considered during the process of “existential risk” and this new
above a certain level of impact, in this case
1000 dead 64
of writing this report are “xrisks” and category is meant to be used as a
“human risk of ruin”. Xrisk has the tool, not a scientific concept. Not only
advantage, and disadvantage, of not should the impacts in the category
really saying anything at all about the potentially result in the end of all
2.3.5 A name for a clearly risk. The positive aspect is that the human life, it should be possible to
defined group of risks name can be associated with the affect the probability and/or impact
general concept of extinction and the of that risk. There must also exist an
that can provide
philosophical concept of existential risk agreed methodology, such as the one
practical guidance as both have the letter x in them. The suggested in this report, that decides
disadvantage is the x often represents what risks belong and not belong on
Today no established methodology the unknown and can therefore relate the list.
exists that provides a constantly to any risk. There is nothing in the
updated list of risks that threaten human name that directly relates to the kind of Another concept that the category
civilisation, or even all human life. Given impacts that the category covers, so relates to is “global catastrophic risk” as it
that such a category can help society to it is easy to interpret the term as just is one of the most used concepts among
better understand and act to avoid such unknown risks. academics interested in infinite impacts.
risks, and better understand the relation However it is vague enough to be used
between these risks, it can be argued Human risk of ruin has the advantage to refer to impacts from a few thousand
that a name for this category would of having a direct link to a concept, deaths to the end of human civilisation.
be helpful.65 risk of ruin, that relates to a very Already in use but not clearly defined,
specific state where all is lost. Risk of it includes both the academic concept
To name something that refers to the ruin is a concept in use in gambling, existential risks and the category of risks
end of humanity is in itself a challenge, insurance, and finance that can all with infinite impacts.
as the very idea is so far from our give very important contributions to
usual references and to many the the work with this new category of
intuitive feeling will be to dismiss any risk. The resemblance to an existing
such thing. concept that is well established could
be both a strength and a liability.
The concept used in this report is
“infinity”. The reson for this is that Below is an overview of the
many of the challenges relate to process when different names were
The three concepts are very different. 1. Risk of ruin – is a concept in 9. Unacceptable risks in different
Global catastrophic risk is possibly gambling, insurance and finance combinations, e.g. unacceptable
the most used concept in contexts relating to the likelihood of losing global risks – This is probably
where infinite impacts are included, all one’s capital or affecting one’s not appropriate for two main
but it is without any clear definition. bankroll beyond the point of reasons. First, it is a normative
Existential risk is an academic recovery. It is used to describe statement and the category aims
concept used by a much smaller individual companies rather to be scientific; whether these
group and with particular focus on than systems.66 risks are unacceptable or not is
future technologies. The category in 2. Extinction risk – is used in up to the citizens of the world
this report is a tool to help decision biology for any species that to decide. Second, the idea of
makers develop strategies that help is threatened. The concept is risk is that it is a combination of
reduce the probability that humanity also used in memory/cognition probability times impact. If a risk
will end when it can be avoided. The research. It is a very dramatic term, is unacceptable is therefore also
relation between the three concepts to be used with care. These factors usually related to how easy it is
can be illustrated with three circles. make it probably unsuitable for use to avoid. Even if a risk is small,
The large circle (1) represents global by stakeholders accustomed to due to relatively low probability
catastrophic risks, the middle one (2) traditional risk assessment. and relatively low impact, but
existential risks and the small circle 3. Astronomical risk – is seldom is very easy to address, it can
(3) the list of twelve risks in this used scientifically, but when it is be seen as unacceptable, in the
report, i.e. risks where there are peer used it is often used for asteroids same way a large risk can be seen
reviewed academic studies that and is probably best reserved as acceptable if it would require
estimate the probability of an infinite for them.67 significant resources to reduce.
impact and where there are known 4. Apocalyptic risk – could have
ways to reduce the risk. A list that been suitable, as the original There will not be a perfect concept
could be called infinite risks, xrisks, or meaning is apocálypsis, from the and the question is what concept
human risk of ruin. Greek ἀπό and καλύπτω meaning can find the best balance between
‘un-covering’. It is sometime used, being easy to understand, acceptable
but in a more general sense, to where policy decisions needs to be
mean significant risks.68 But through made and also acceptable for all key
history and today it is mainly used groups that are relevant for work in
for a religious end of time scenario. these area. During the process to find
Its strong links to unscientific a name for this category inspiration
doom-mongers make it probably has been found in the process when
unsuitable for a scientific concept. new concepts have been introduced;
5. End-of-the-world risk - belongs to from irrational numbers and genocide
3. 2. 1. the irrational doomsday narratives to sustainable development and
and so is probably unsuitable for the Human Development Index. So
scientific risk assessments. far “infinite risk” can be seen as the
6. Extreme risk – is vague enough least bad concept in some areas and
to describe anything beyond the “xrisks” and “human risk of ruin” the
normal, so it is probably unsuitable least bad in others.
for risk assessments of this
magnitude. The purpose of this report is to
7. Unique risk – is even vaguer, establish a methodology to identify
Other concepts that are related to as every risk is unique in some a very specific group of risks as
infinite impacts that could potentially way. Probably best avoided in well as continue to a process where
be used to describe the same risk assessments. these risks will be addressed in a
category if the above suggestions 8. Collapse risk – is based on systematic and appropriate way.
are not seen as acceptable concepts Jared Diamond’s thinking.69 The issue of naming this group
are presented below, together with There are many different kinds of of risks will be left to others. The
the main reason why these concepts collapse and only a few result in important is that the category gets
were not chosen for this report. infinite impact. the attention it deserves.
2.4 Methodology
2.4 Methodology 70
This chapter presents the methodology used to identify global risks with potentially infinite impact.
Methodology overview
In order to establish a list of global risks with potentially infinite impact a methodological triangulation was used,
consisting of:
– A quantitative assessment of relevant literature.

– A strategic selection of relevant organisations and their priorities.
– A qualitative assessment with the help of expert workshops.
Relevant literature
Identification of credible sources: search relevant literature
in academic literature included in World of Knowledge and Google Scholar.
1
Estimations of impact
Only literature where there is some estimation of impact that
indicates the possibility of an infinite impact is included.
2
Leading organisations’ priorities
In order to increase the probability of covering all relevant risks an overview
of leading organisations' work was conducted. This list was then compared with the initial list
and subjected to the same filter regarding the possibility to affect the probability or impact.
3
Possibility of addressing the risk
Possibility of addressing the risk: From the risks gathered
from literature and organisations, only those where the probability
4
or impact can be affected by human actions are included.
Expert review
Qualitative assessment: Expert review in order to increase the
probability of covering all relevant global risks.
5
List of risks
Result: List of risks with potentially infinite impacts.
2.4 Methodology
2.4.1 A scientific A list of 178 relevant books and reports – Covers multiple global
was established based on what other challenges (at least two).
review of key literature 71 studies have referred to, and/or which Publications that discuss a
are seen as landmark studies by variety of global challenges are of
The scientific review of literature was groups interviewed during the process. particular importance because they
led by Seth Baum, Executive Director They were selected for a closer aid in identifying and comparing the
of the Global Catastrophic Risk examination regarding the challenges various challenges. This process
Institute72 and research scientist at the they include.76 is essential for research on global
Center for Research on Environmental risks to identify boundaries and
Decisions, Columbia University.73 The full bibliography, even with its focus research priorities.
on publications of general interest, is
The methodology for including global still rather long. So it is helpful to have a In order to identify which global
risks with a potentially infinite impact shorter list focused on the highlights; the challenges are most commonly
is based on a scientific review of key most important publications based on discussed, key surveys were identified
literature, with focus on peer-reviewed how often they are quoted, how well- and coded. First, a list of publications
academic journals, using keyword spread the content (methodology, lists, that survey at least three global
search of both World of Knowledge74 etc.) is and how often key organisations challenges was compiled, and they
and Google Scholar75 combined with use them. The publications included must were then scanned to find which
existing literature overviews in the meet at least one of the following criteria: challenges they discussed.
area of global challenges. This also
included a snowball methodology – Historical significance. This The publications that survey many
where references in the leading studies includes being the first publication global challenges were identified from
and books were used to identify other to introduce certain key concepts, the full bibliography. Publications
scientific studies and books. or other early discussions of global from both the academic and popular
challenges. Publications of historical literature were considered. Emphasis
In order to select words for a literature significance are important for showing was placed on publications of repute
search to identify infinite impacts, a the intellectual history of global or other significance.78 To qualify
process was established to identify challenges. Understanding how the as a survey of global challenges,
words in the scientific literature state of the art research got to where it the publication had to provide an
connected to global challenges with is today can also help us understand explicit list of challenges or to be of
potentially infinite impacts. Some where it might go in the future. sufficient length and breadth for it
words generate a lot of misses, i.e. to discuss a variety of challenges.
publications that use the term but – Influential in developing the field. Many of the publications are books
are not the focus of this report. For This includes publications that are or book-length collections of articles
example “existential risk” is used in highly cited77 and those that have published in book form or as special
business; “human extinction” is used motivated significant additional issues of scholarly journals. Some
in memory/cognition. Some search research. They are not necessarily individual articles were also included
terms produced relatively few hits. the first publications to introduce because they discussed a significant
the concepts they discuss, but for breadth of challenges.
For example “global catastrophic whatever reason they will have proved
risk” is not used much. Other words important in advancing research. A total of 40 global challenge survey
are only used by people within a publications were identified. For
specific research community: few use – State of the art. This includes authors with multiple entries (Bostrom
“existential risk” in our sense unless publications developing new concepts with three and WEF with ten) each
they are using Nick Bostrom’s work. at the forefront of global challenges challenge was counted only once to
The term “global catastrophe” was research as well as those providing avoid bias.
identified as a phrase that referred the best discussions of important
almost exclusively to extremely established concepts. Reading these
negative impacts on humans, by publications would bring a researcher
a diversity of researchers, not just up to speed with current research
people in one research community. on global challenges. So they are
important for the quality of their ideas.
2.4 Methodology
In terms of authorship and audience, was necessary because many of the The coding presented here erred on the
there are 17 academic publications, publications did not contain explicit side of greater inclusivity: if a portion
9 popular publications, 1 government lists of global challenges, and the ones of text was in the vicinity of a global
report, 3 publications written by that did often mentioned additional challenge, then it was coded as one.
academics for popular audiences. challenges separately from their lists. For example, some publications
In terms of format, there are 15 So it was not required that a global discussed risks associated with
books, 5 edited collections, 7 articles, challenge be mentioned in a list nuclear weapons in a general sense
3 of miscellaneous format. Of the for it to be counted – it only had to without specifically mentioning the
40 publications identified, 22 were be mentioned somewhere in the possibility of large-scale nuclear war.
available at the time of coding. In publication as a challenge. These discussions were coded as
addition, 10 Global Risks Reports mentions of nuclear war, even though
from the World Economic Forum were Assessing whether a particular they could also refer to single usages
coded and then gathered under one portion of text counts as a global of nuclear weapons that would not
heading: “WEF Global Risk Report challenge and which category it rate as a global challenge.
2005-2014”. fits in sometimes requires some
interpretation. This is inevitable This more inclusive approach is
A list of 34 global challenges was for most types of textual analysis, warranted because many of the
developed based on the challenges or, more generally, for the coding publications were not focused
mentioned in the publications. A of qualitative data. The need for exclusively on global challenges. If
spreadsheet containing the challenges interpretation in this coding was they were focused on them, it is likely
and the publications was created to heightened by the fact that the that they would have included these
record mentions of specific challenges publications often were not written risks in their global challenge form
in each publication to be coded. with the purpose of surveying the (e.g., nuclear war), given that they
breadth of global challenges, and even were already discussing something
Then each publication was scanned the publications that were intended related (e.g., nuclear weapons).
in its entirety for mentions of global as surveys did not use consistent Below are the results from the
challenges. Scanning by this method definitions of global challenges. overview of the surveys.
25
21
20
18
17
15
15
14 14
13 13 13 13
11 11 11
10
8 8 8 8
7 7
5 5 5 5
5
4 4 4 4
3 3
2
1 1 1 1
0
Asteroid / Comet / Meteor
Ecological Catastrophe
Astronomic Explosion
Atmosphere Aerosols
High Energy Physics
Genetic Engineering
Biological Weapons
Artificial Intelligence
Resource Depletion
Government Failure
Chemical Weapons
Ocean Acidification
Chemical Pollution
Reject Procreation
Computer Failure
Interstellar Cloud
Ozone Depletion
New Technology
Phase Transition
Biodiversity loss
Climate Change
System Failure
Extraterrestrial
Biogeochem
Nuclear War
Simulation
Dysgenics
Pandemic
Nanotech
Unknown
EM Pulse
Volcano
Poverty
LULCC
Figure 9: Number of times global challenges are included in surveys of global challenges
2.4 Methodology
25
21
20
18
17
15
15 14 14
13 13 13 13
11 11 11
10
0
Ecological Catastrophe
High Energy Physics
Genetic Engineering
Resource Depletion
Chemical Pollution
Biodiversity loss
Climate Change
Nuclear War
Pandemic
Nanotech
Volcano
Figure 10: The global challenges included ten times or more in surveys of global challenges
It should be noted that the literature dramatic rhetoric to illustrate how 2.4.2 A review of
that includes multiple global little research is being done on them organisations working
challenges with potentially infinite compared with other areas. on global challenges 81
impact is very small, given the fact
that it is about the survival of the However, it is important to note that many The list of risks found in the scientific
human race. more studies exist that focus on individual literature was checked against
global risks, but often without including a review of what challenges key
Experts in the field of global low-probability high-impact outcomes.80 organisations working on global
challenges, like Nick Bostrom, have challenges include in their material
urged policymakers and donors to How much work actually exists on and on their webpages. This was
focus more on the global challenges human extinction infinite impact is done to ensure that no important risk
with infinite impacts and have used therefore difficult to assess. was excluded from the list.
The coding of key organisations

paralleled the coding of key survey
1000 publications. Organisations were
identified via the global catastrophic
800 risk organisation directory published by
the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.82
600 They were selected from the directory
if they worked on a variety of global
400 challenges – at least three, and ideally
more. The reason for focusing on
200 those that work on multiple challenges
is to understand which challenges
0 they consider important and why. In
dung beetle star trek zinc oxalate human contrast, organisations that focus on
extinction only one or two challenges may not
Figure 11: Number of academic papers on various topics (listed in Scopus, August 2012)
From the paper “Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority” 79
2.4 Methodology
be able to adjust their focus according Organisations working with global Then those working with multiple
to which challenges they consider the challenges were initially selected on challenges were selected, resulting in
most important. the basis of the literature overview. A a list of 19 organisations.83
snowball sampling was conducted
The organisation coding used the based on the list of organisations Below is the overview of the
same coding scheme developed identified, according to whether they results from the overview of key
for coding survey publications. claimed to work on global challenges organisations working with multiple
References to specific global and/or their web page contained global challenges.
challenges were obtained from information about “existential risk”,
organisations’ websites. Many have “global catastrophic risk”,“human The organisations working on global
web pages which list the topics they extinction” or “greatest global challenges vary widely in:
work on. Where possible, references challenges”. Cross-references
to global challenges were pulled from between organisations and input 1. What they count as a global
these pages. Additional references to during the workshops were also challenge
these challenges were identified by used to identify organisations. 2. How systematically they identify
browsing other web pages, including global challenges; and
recent publications. While it is possible An initial list of 180 organisations 3. Their emphasis on the most
that some of these organisations which work with global challenges important global challenges
have worked on global challenges was established. Based on the
not mentioned on the web pages production of relevant literature, For most organisations working
that were examined, overall the main which other organisations referred with global challenges there are no
challenges that they have worked on to the organisation, and/or are seen explanations for the methodology used
have probably been identified and as influential by groups interviewed to select the challenges. Only a few
coded. So the results should give a during the process, a short-list of thought leaders, like Tower Watson and
reasonably accurate picture of what organisations were selected for a closer their Extreme Risk Report 2013, have
global challenges these organisations examination regarding the challenges a framework for the challenges and
are working on. they work with. estimates of possible impacts.
14
13 13
12
12
10
9
8
8
7 7 7
6
6
5
4 4
4
2 2 2 2
2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
Atmospheric Aerosols
Astronomic Explosion
High Energy Physics

Genetic Engineering
Biological Weapons
Resource Depletion
Government Failure
Chemical Weapons
Ocean Acidification
Chemical Pollution
Reject Procreation
Ecological Failure
Computer Failure
Interstellar Cloud
Ozone Depletion
New Technology
Phase Transition
Biodiversity loss
Climate Change
System Failure
Extraterrestrial
Biogeochem
Nuclear War
Simulation
Dysgenics
Pandemic
Nanotech
Unknown
EM Pulse
Volcano
Poverty
LULCC
Figure 12: Global challenges that key organisations work with
2.4 Methodology
In most cases there is neither The respondents are then asked to On the other hand, challenges which
a definition of the impact, nor a provide a number on two scales from have very big impacts but lower
definition of the probability. The report 1-4, one for impact and another for probability, like extreme climate
that focuses on global risk which is likelihood (within 10 years).87 change, nanotechnology, major
probably best known is the WEF Global volcanoes, AI, and asteroids, tend to
Risk Report. The WEF’s risk work, with It is then up to the respondent to get less, or no, attention.
many other groups’, is probably best define what 1-4 means, so the major
described as belonging to the category value of the report is to track the An important question to explore is
of risk perception rather than risk changes in perception over the years. whether a focus on the smaller but still
assessment, where experts are asked Such perception approaches are serious impacts of global challenges
to estimate risks, but without any clear obviously very interesting and, as can result in an increased probability
definition of probability or impact. The the WEF states, can influence actual of infinite impacts. For example, there
more serious organisations, like the probability as the readers’ decisions are reasons to believe that a focus
WEF, also clearly define what they do will be influenced by how different on incremental adaptation instead
as discussing perception of risk, not a challenges are perceived. Still, it is of significant mitigation could be a
scientific assessment of the actual risk. important to remember that the report problem for climate change as it could
does not provide an assessment of result in high-carbon lock-in.88
The WEF describes its perception the actual probability (0-100%) or
methodology as follows: “This an assessment of the impact (and Other research indicates that focus
approach can highlight areas that not the impact on human suffering, on commercially relevant smaller
are of most concern to different as many respondents likely define pandemics could result in actions that
stakeholders, and potentially galvanise risk in monetary terms for their own make a major pandemic more likely. It
shared efforts to address them.” 85 company or country). is argued that this could happen, for
example, by encouraging increased
The question which people are asked An overview of WEF reports from trade of goods while investing in
to answer is: “What occurrence the last ten years indicates that equipment that scans for the type of
causes significant negative impact for the challenges that likely could pandemics that are known. Such a
several countries and industries?” 86 happen when applying a five year system can reduce the probability for
horizon, like the first signs of climate known pandemics while at the same
change, governmental failure and time resulting in an increased probability
traditional pandemic, are identified. for new and more serious pandemics.89
14
13 13
12
12
10
9
8
8
7 7 7
6
6
5
4 4
4
0
Atmospheric Aerosols
Genetic Engeneering
Biological Weapons
Resource Depletion
Government Failure
Chemical Weapons
Computer Failure
Climate Change
System Failure
Nuclear War
Pandemic
Nanotech
Figure 13: The top 12 global challenges that key organisations work with
2.4 Methodology / 2.5 The rseulting list of global risks using this methodology
2.4.3 Workshops 2.5 The list of The technologies included in emerging

challenges, including synthetic
Two workshops were arranged
global risks biology, nanotechnology and artificial
where the selection of challenges intelligence (AI), will be critical to
was discussed, one with risk experts Based on the risks identified in the finding solutions to infinite impacts.
in Oxford at the Future of Humanity literature review and in the review of Including these technologies should
Institute and the other in London organisations and applying the criteria not be seen as an attempt to arrest
with experts from the financial for potentially infinite impact, these them. If anything, the development
sector. See Appendix 2 for agenda risks were identified: of sustainable solutions should be
and participants. accelerated. But it is equally important
1. Extreme Climate Change to create guidelines and frameworks
In both workshops the list of global 2. Nuclear War to avoid their misuse, whether
challenges was discussed to see if 3. Global Pandemic intentional or accidental.
any additional challenges should be 4. Ecological Catastrophe
included, or if there were reasons to 5. Global System Collapse The fourth category, future global
exclude some from the list. 6. Major Asteroid Impact policy challenges, is of a different kind.
7. Supervolcano It includes challenges related to the
No challenge was excluded at the 8. Synthetic Biology consequences of an inferior or destructive
workshops, but one was added. 9. Nanotechnology global governance system. This is
Although little research exists yet that 10. Artificial Intelligence (AI) especially important as well-intended
is able to verify the potential impacts, 11. Unknown Consequences actions to reduce global challenges
the participants agreed to include 12. Future Bad Global Governance could lead to future global governance
Global System Collapse as a risk systems with destructive impact.
with possible infinite impact. There This is an initial list. Additional risks
was agreement that further research will be added as new scientific studies The first category, current
is needed to clarify exactly what become available, and some will be challenges, includes:
parts of the economic and political removed if steps are taken to reduce
system could collapse and result in their probability90 and/or impact so 1. Extreme Climate Change
a potentially infinite outcome. The that they no longer meet the criteria. 2. Nuclear War
conclusion was that enough research 3. Global Pandemic
exists to include such a collapse on Four categories of global challenges 4. Ecological Catastrophe
the list. The challenges included in this report 5. Global System Collapse
belong to four categories. The first,
current challenges, includes those The second category, exogenous
where decisions today can result challenges, covers:
directly in infinite impacts. They are
included even if the time between 6. Major Asteroid Impact
action and impact might be decades, 7. Supervolcano
as with climate change.
Those in the third category, emerging
The second category is exogenous challenges, are:
challenges, those where decisions do
not – currently – influence probability, 8. Synthetic Biology
but can influence impact. 9. Nanotechnology
10. Artificial Intelligence (AI)
The third category is emerging 11. Unknown Consequences
challenges, those where technology
and science are not advanced enough The fourth category, global policy
to pose a severe threat today, but challenges, is:
where the challenges will probably
soon be able to have an infinite impact. 12. Future Bad Global Governance
2.5 The rseulting list of global risks using this methodology
2.5.1 Risks The challenges mentioned in the 3. Chemical pollution.

reviewed literature and organisations Increasingly, there is particular
not included which are not included in this report concern about three types of
often refer to economic damage such chemicals: those that persist in
Many risks could severely damage as “fiscal crises” or “unemployment”. the environment and accumulate
humanity but have not been included While such impacts could have in the bodies of wildlife and
in this report. They were excluded for far-reaching consequences they are people, endocrine disruptors that
one or more of three reasons: obviously of another magnitude than can interfere with hormones, and
those included here. chemicals that cause cancer or
1. Limited impact. Many challenges damage DNA.
can have significant local negative Some of the risks that were suggested ͢ Not included due to:
effects, without approaching the “2 and/or which exist in books and Limited impact
billion negatively affected” criterion reports about global risks were
- tsunamis, for example, and rejected according to the criteria
chemical pollution. above. They include: 91 4. Dangerous physics experiments
creating black holes/strangelets
2. No effective countermeasures. 1. Astronomical explosion/nearby including high energy physics.
The report focuses on promoting gamma-ray burst or supernova.92 These risks are of low probability94
effective interventions and so These seem to be events of and have been subsumed under
ignores challenges where nothing extremely low probability and which “Uncertain Risks”.
useful can be done to prevent or are unlikely to be survivable. Milder ͢ Not included due to:
mitigate the impact, as with nearby versions of them (where the source Included in other challenges
gamma-ray bursts. is sufficiently far away) may be
considered in a subsequent report.
3. Included in other challenges. ͢ Not included due to: 5. Destructive solar flares.
Many challenges are already No effective countermeasures Though solar flares or coronal
covered by others, or have a mass ejections could cause
damage profile so similar that great economic damage to our
there seemed no need to have 2. False vacuum collapse. technological civilisation,95 they
a separate category. Population If our universe is in a false would not lead directly to mass
growth, for one, is an underlying vacuum and it collapses at any casualties unless the system lacks
driver significant for climate change point, the collapse would expand basic resilience. They have been
and eco-system catastrophe, but at the speed of light destroying subsumed in the Global System
without direct large-scale impacts. all organised structures in the Collapse category.
universe.93 This would not ͢ Not included due to:
be survivable. Limited impact/included in
͢ Not included due to: other challenges
No effective countermeasures
2.5 The rseulting list of global risks using this methodology
6. Moral collapse of humanity. 8. New technological 11. Computer failure/Cyber-

Humanity may develop along experimental risks. warfare. Though an area of great
a path that we would currently It is possible and plausible that interest and research, cyber-
find morally repellent. The new unexpected technological warfare has never caused mass
consequences of this are not risks will emerge due to casualties and would be unlikely
clear-cut, and depend on value experiments. However, until we to do so directly. It may be the
judgements that would be know what such risks may be, they subject of a future report, but in
contentious and unshared.96 Some are subsumed in the “Uncertain this report it is considered to be
of these risks (such as global Risks” category. a subset of warfare and general
totalitarianism or enduring poverty) ͢ Not included due to: destabilising risks.
were included in the Governance included in other challenges ͢ Not included due to:
Disasters category. Limited impact/Submersed in
͢ Not included due to: other challenges
included in other challenges 9. Genocides.
Though immense tragedies within 12. Underlying trends, e.g.
specific areas, past genocides overpopulation. Though increased
7. Resource depletion/LULCC/ have remained contained in space population will put strains on
Biodiversity loss. and time and haven’t spread resources and can contribute to
It has often been argued that across the globe.98 increased probability for other
declining resources will cause ͢ Not included due to: challenges included in this report
increased conflict.97 Nevertheless Limited impact (such as climate change and
such conflicts would not be ecosystem catastrophe), plausible
sufficient in themselves to threaten population levels will not cause
humanity on a large scale, 10. Natural disasters. any direct harm to humanity.101
without a “ System Collapse” or Most natural disasters, like Population growth is however an
“Governance Disasters”. tsunamis and hurricanes, have important trend that is significantly
͢ Not included due to: no likelihood of causing the affecting several risks.
included in other challenges extent of casualties100 needed ͢ Not included due to:
for consideration on this list, as Limited impact/Submersed in
they are geographically limited other challenges
and follow relatively mild impact
probability curves. Note: Important underlying trends are
͢ Not included due to: discussed in chapter 5.
Limited impact
2.6 Relations between impact levels beyond the infinite threshold
2.6 Relationship between What makes things difficult is that None of the risks in this report is likely
once a system is unstable, a small to result directly in an infinite impact,
impact levels beyond disaster can have knock-on effects – and some cannot do so physically.
the infinite threshold the death of one Austrian nobleman All the risks however are big enough
can result in an ultimatum which to reach a threshold where the social
Complex systems are often stable draws in neighbours until Australians and ecological systems become so
only within certain boundaries. end up fighting Turks and the First unstable that an infinite impact could
Outside these boundaries the World War is well under way, to be ensue, as the graph below shows.
system can collapse and rapidly followed by communism, the Second
change to a new stable state, or it World War and the Cold War. This graph and its accompanying text
can trigger a process where change explain, how an event that reaches
continues for a long time until a new The challenge of understanding a threshold level could cascade into
stable state is found. complex systems includes the fact even worse situations, via civilisation
that many of them have multiple collapse105 to human extinction.
Sometimes it can take a very long attractors, including what are called
time for a system to stabilise again. “strange attractors”.103 Changes are The graph also seeks to illustrate the
Looking at all the biotic crises over close to linear as long as the system importance of ensuring ecological
the past 530 million years, a research does not change very much, but once and social resilience, the two major
team from Berkeley found an it is pushed out of balance it will get insurance policies we have against a
average of 10 million years between closer to other attractors, and when negative spiral after a major impact that
an extinction and a subsequent those become strong enough the takes us beyond the infinite threshold.
flourishing of life.102 system will tend to move towards
chaos until a new balance is achieved
around the new attractor.104
Pre-risk rebuilding enablers (tech stores...)
Post-collapse
Long term impact external
threats and risks
Social and ecosystem resilience
Extinction
Post-risk Post-risk Post-collapse

collapse politics politics
countermeasures
General Total Maintaining

mitigation short term Civilisation
collapse technology base
and resilience casualties
General pre-risk Long-term

collapse countermeasures reconstruction Anthropic effect
probability
2.6 Relations between impact levels beyond the infinite threshold
1. Social and ecosystem resilience. 5. Long-term impact. Some risks 10. Post-collapse external threats
Resilient systems are naturally (such as climate change) have and risks. Simply because a
resistant to collapse, though strong long-term impacts after years risk has triggered the collapse of
this often comes at the cost of or even decades. Others (such human civilisation, that does not
efficiency.106 The more resilient as pandemics) are more likely to mean that other risks are no longer
the system, the more likely it is have only a short-term impact. This present. Humanity will have much
to be able to adapt to even large category includes only direct long- less resilience to deal with further
disasters. Improving resilience term impacts. damage, so the probability of these
ahead of time can improve risks is important to determine the
outcomes, even if the nature of the 6. Post-risk politics. The political ultimate fate of humanity.
disaster isn’t known. structures of the post-risk world
(governmental systems, conflicts 11. Anthropic effects. We cannot
2. General pre-risk collapse between and within political observe a world incapable of
countermeasures. This category groupings, economic and political supporting life, because we
consists of all those measures put links between groups) will be could not be alive to observe it.
into place ahead of time to prevent important in determining if a large When estimating the likelihood
civilisation collapse. It could include, impact leads ultimately to civilisation of disasters and recovery it is
for instance, measures to ensure collapse or if recovery is possible. very important to take this effect
continuity of government or prevent into consideration and to adjust
breakup of countries (or to allow 7. Post-risk collapse probability estimates accordingly.110
these breakups to happen with the countermeasures. These are the
minimum of disruption). At the same countermeasures that the post- 12. Long-term reconstruction
time it should be noted that these risk political structures are likely to probability. A post-collapse world
kinds of measures could also trigger implement to prevent a complete will differ significantly from a pre-
the breakdown. civilisation collapse. industrial revolution world. Easy
access to coal and oil will no longer
3. General mitigation and resilience. 8. Maintaining a technology base. be possible. In contrast, much
This category consists of all Current society is complex, usable aluminium will have been
measures that can reduce the with part of the world’s excess extracted and processed and will
impact of risks and prevent them production diverted into maintaining be left lying on the surface for easy
getting out of hand (excluding social a population of scientists, use. Thus it will be important to
and ecosystem measures, which engineers and other experts, establish how technically possible it
are important and general enough to capable of preserving knowledge may be to have a second industrial
deserve their own category). of technological innovations and revolution and further reconstruction
developing new ones. In the simpler up to current capabilities without
4. Pre-risk rebuilding enablers. post-collapse societies, with creating the problems that the first
On top of attempting to prevent possibly much lower populations, industrial revolution resulted in.
collapses, measures can also it will be a challenge to maintain
be taken to enable rebuilding current technology and prevent
after a collapse.107 This could crucial skills from being lost.109
involve building stores of food, of
technology, or crucial reconstruction 9. Post-collapse politics. Just as
tools.108 Alternatively, it could post-risk politics are important for
involve training of key individuals preventing a collapse, post-collapse
or institutions (such as the crews of politics will be important in allowing
nuclear submarines) to give them a recovery. The ultimate fate of
useful post-collapse skills. humanity may be tied up with the
preservation of such concepts as
human rights, the scientific method
and technological progress.
3. Twelve Global Challenges
3. Twelve Global
Challenges
“You may choose to look the other way

but you can never say again that you
did not know.”
William Wilberforce
3. Twelve Global Challengesof risks
For the selection of events The list of events was then ranked Four categories were used to classify
information from specialised based on their risk relevance, i.e. their the different events:
bodies and scientific journals in the effect on the probability and/or the
area of global risk was gathered.111 impact of the challenge. 1. Policy: Global or national policy
Using keywords related to the initiatives that affect probability
various risks, a global selection To finalise the list, a group of experts and/or impact
of events was sought, along with was consulted by email and a draft 2. Event: The challenge is made
original sourcing in academic or overview of the challenges was real in some way that is relevant for
official sources. presented at a workshop at the Future probability and/or impact
of Humanity Institute (FHI) in Oxford, 3. Research: New knowledge about
where additional input was provided probability and/or impact
on selection and content. Issue experts 4. Initiative: A stakeholder/group
were then consulted before the final list addressing the challenge in concrete
of events was established. 112 ways to reduce probability
Global System and impact
Extreme Future Bad Global Artificial
Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse
Intelligence
Extreme
Extreme Future
Future Bad
Bad Global
Global Global
Global System
System
Ecological
Global System
Global System
Extreme
Nanotechnology
Extreme Future Bad
Nuclear
Future War
Bad Global
Super-volcano
Global Synthetic
Climate
Climate Change
Change Global
Global Governance
Governance Pandemic
Pandemic Collapse
Collapse
Catastrophe
Collapse
Collapse
Climate
ClimateChange
Global Governance Pandemic
Pandemic Biology
Extreme
Global
Global
Global System
System
Nanotechnology
Future
Nuclear
Nuclear
Major
Major System
Bad War
War
Asteroid
Asteroid Global
Major Asteroid
Super-volcano
Super-volcano Global System
Synthetic
Synthetic
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology
Climate Nuclear
NuclearWar
Collapse
Global War
Governance Super-volcano
Super-volcano
Pandemic
Impact Synthetic
Synthetic
Collapse
ce CollapseChange
Pandemic
Collapse Impact
Impact Biology
Biology
Biology
Biology
Nanotechnology
Super-volcano
Synthetic
Synthetic Nuclear War
Synthetic
Artificial
Artificial
Unknown
Unknown Super-volcano
Unknown
Extreme
Extreme Synthetic
Future
FutureBad
Bad
Biology
Biology Biology
Intelligence
Intelligence
Consequences
Consequences Consequences
Climate
ClimateChange
Change Biology
Global
GlobalGovernance
Governance
3.1 Current risks
3.1 Current risks
3.1.1 Extreme
Climate Change
Extreme Future Bad Global

Climate Change Global Governance Pande
Climate change is a significant and lasting change

in the statistical distribution of weather patterns
over periods ranging from decades to millions of years.
Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-
It may be a change in average weather conditions,
or in the distribution of weather around the average
conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events).
Extreme climate change is used to distinguish

from the impacts beyond the dangerous climate
that a 2° C temperature rise is expected to result in. 113
3.1 Current risks
3.1.1.1 Expected impact Combined with shocks to the If for any reason it stopped (such as a
agriculture and biosphere-dependent civilisation collapse), warming would
industries of the more developed resume at a significantly higher pace,
Many of the expected impacts of countries, this could lead to global reaching the point where it would
climate change are well known, conflict and possibly civilisation have been without geo-engineering.
including a warming climate, more collapse – to the extent that many The speed of this rebound would
severe storms and droughts, rising experts see climate change as a put extra pressure on the ecosystem
sea levels, ocean acidification, and national security risk126. Further and the world’s political system. So
damage to vulnerable ecosystems.114 evidence of the risk comes from the biggest challenge is that geo-
As for all risks there are uncertainties indications that past civilisation engineering may backfire and simply
in the estimates, and warming could collapses have been driven by make matters worse.134
be much more extreme than the climate change.127
middle estimates suggest. Models
tend to underestimate uncertainty115 Extinction risk could develop from this 3.1.1.2 Probability
(especially where impact on humanity if the remaining human groups were disaggregation
is concerned,116 where the effect also vulnerable to other shocks, such as
depends on modellers’ choices such pandemics, possibly exacerbated
as the discount rate117), so there is by the changed climate.128 There is Five important factors in estimating
a probability118 that humanity could some evidence of 6°C climate change the probabilities and impacts of the
be looking at a 4°C119 or even 6°C120 causing mass extinction in the past,129 challenge:
warming in the coming decades. This but a technological species such as
could arise from positive feedback ourselves might be more resilient to 1. The uncertainties in climate
loops, such as the release of methane such a shock. sensitivity models, including the tail.
from permafrost121 or the dieback 2. The likelihood - or not - of
of the Amazon rainforests,122 that A unique feature of the climate global coordination on controlling
strengthen the warming effect. So far, change challenge is what is called emissions.
efforts at curbing emissions have been geo-engineering.130 Though this could 3. The future uptake of low-carbon
only moderately successful and are - if it works - reduce many impacts economies, including energy,
still very far from what is needed.123 at a relatively low cost, it would mobility and food systems.
not do so evenly. Geo-engineering 4. Whether technological
The impact of global warming, would possibly reduce the impacts innovations will improve or worsen
whether mild or severe, would of climate change in some countries, the situation, and by how much.
be felt most strongly in poorer benefitting them while leaving others 5. The long-term climate impact
countries. Adaptation that can to suffer.131 This could lead to greater caused by global warming.
address significant warming is political instability. One of the most
often very expensive,124 and many popular geo-engineering ideas –
of the poorest countries are in the stratospheric sulphate aerosols
tropics and sub-tropics that would – suffers from the weakness that it
be hardest hit (they could become must be continuous. 132
completely uninhabitable for the
highest range of warming125). Mass
deaths and famines, social collapse
and mass migration are certainly
possible in this scenario.
3.1 Current risks CLIMATE CHANGE
GOVERNANCE DISASTERS
Research in Easily visible
Technological Economic effects of
Climate research Climate warfare innovations emmision-reducing transformations
technologies climate change
Deliberate
Collapse of New,Global
polluting, Technological attempts toResearch in
Global povety Global instability Low-carbon Global
Geoengineering geoengineering usescoordination
for carbon innovations mitigation and
construct world
economies coordination
projects products adaptation
dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
between e.g. New system Smart sensors
poverty, survival, of governance
freedom
Extreme Carbon Moderate Climate change

climate change emissions climate change Feedback loops Global poverty mitigation and
adaptation
Failing to solve Improvements to Making

important problems global governance things worse
Ecosystem Disruption to Political Increased storms,

Agriculture damage Direct casualties world politics instability in flooding and
disruption (e.g. ocean and economy vulnerable nations natural disaters
acidification)
Not achieving Global Lack of human

Enduring poverty important Climate change pollution flourishing
ethical goals
Long-term
climate effects
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Disruption to Collapse of Long-term Pre-warming

Post warming Post-disaster Forced migration collapse
world politics world system negative effects
politics politics countermeasures
and economy
Pre-warming Total short-term casualties Civilization

mitigation efforts collapse Extinction
Total short-term General mitigation Civilisation

Extinction
casualties effort collapse
Meta-uncertainty on how to predict the international Meta-uncertainty on the true uncertainty in climate
political process change models
Key
KeyUncertain events Current

Meta-uncertainties Risk events Direct impacts Indirect impacts intervention areas Bad decisions Accidents Severe impacts
Current
Uncertain events Meta-uncertainties Risk events Direct impacts Indirect impacts intervention areas Bad decisions Accidents Severe impacts
3.1 Current risks
1. Research which further refines our temperatures and climates. The indirect determining whether carbon emissions
understanding of climate change and effect can however be significant, e.g. are self-damping or self-forcing (i.e.
geo-engineering ideas will be essential in migration, starvation, extreme weather. whether an extra ton of CO2 emissions
predicting change, preparing for it, and is likely to result in more or less than a
potentially reversing it. On the negative 11. Climate change is likely to cause ton in the atmosphere).
side, climate science research may allow extensive ecosystem damage, such
the possibility of climate change tools as ocean acidification and pressure 21. Transitioning to low carbon
being used for warfare. on many sensitive species that cannot economies will be crucial for reducing
easily adapt to temperature changes. emissions without disrupting the world’s
2. Global poverty will affect both the political or economic systems.
vulnerability of many nations to the 12. Agriculture will be disrupted by
effects of climate change, and the increased temperature. 22. Geo-engineering offers the possibility
likelihood of achieving global co- of decreasing carbon concentration in
ordination earlier rather than later. 13. The direct and indirect effects of the atmosphere alongside, or instead of,
climate change will have a great impact emission reductions. But it may make
3. Pre-extreme warming mitigation on the world’s political and economic climate warfare a possibility.
efforts will affect the level of impact from systems, which will in turn determine the
climate change. severity of the changes. 23. If geo-engineering projects collapse
in the middle of implementation, this
4. Pre-warming collapse 14. Many nations will be made could lead to strong warming over a
countermeasures will affect the politically vulnerable to the direct and dangerously short period of time.
likelihood of civilisation collapse. indirect impacts of climate change,
putting great pressure on their political 24. Technological innovations will be
5. Research into mitigation and systems and institutions. crucial for transitioning to low carbon
adaptation is necessary for effective economies or allowing geo-engineering.
implementation of either approach. 15. Climate change will cause an But they may also result in new,
increase in storms, floods, and other carbon-intensive innovations, which,
6. Research into emission-reducing natural disasters. If political stability is if sufficiently profitable, could push
technologies (such as alternative maintained, most of the casualties are emissions up.
energies) will be important for likely to result from these factors.
transitioning to a low carbon economy. 25. Some level of changes to the
16. Forced migration from unstable or standard economic system may
7. Global coordination and cooperation disrupted areas will put further pressure be needed to transition to low
will be key to funding mitigation/ on more stable areas. carbon economies.
adaptation research and development,
and for the global control of carbon 17. The long-term impact of 26. Easily visible impacts of climate
emissions or transitioning to a global low climate change (including further change may be instrumental in pushing
carbon economy. carbon emissions and warming) better global coordination on the issue.
will be important for determining
8. Climate warfare is possible if geo- the risk of collapse and 27. The political systems in place as
engineering and climate modification subsequent rebuilding possibilities. warming increases will determine how
methods can be harnessed by nations well the world copes with a hotter planet.
to harm others. 18. Attempts to mitigate and adapt
to climate change will be important 28. Climate models are extremely
9. New, more polluting uses of carbon for reducing the severity of climate detailed and inevitably uncertain.
would, if they had a strong economic change’s impact. But the real level of uncertainty
rationale, put upwards pressure on includes uncertainties about the
carbon emissions. 19. The level of carbon emissions is the models themselves.
driver of climate change, and will be
10. The direct casualties of limited crucial in determining its ultimate impact. 29. The course of international
global warming are likely to be few, as politics is extremely hard to predict,
humans can adapt to many different 20. Feedback loops will be important in even for political scientists.135
3.1 Current risks
3.1.1.3 Main events Prior to the Industrial Revolution, 21-May-13: China agrees
natural climate variations caused to impose carbon targets by 2016141
during 2013 atmospheric CO2 to vary between – Policy
about 200 ppm during ice ages
19-Apr-13: Launch of the report and 300 ppm during the warmer Since China is the world’s greatest
“Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted inter-glacial periods. The last time emitter of CO2,142 any reduction
capital and stranded assets” 136 concentrations were as high as steps it takes can have a substantial
– Research they are now seems to have been impact. It has announced a “National
during the Mid-Pliocene, about 3 Low Carbon Day“,143 a “series of
To constrain the rise in global average million years before the present when major promotional events to improve
temperature to less than 2°C above temperatures were 2-3°C warmer, awareness and get the whole society
pre-industrial levels, a maximum of and in which geological evidence and to address climate change.” More
around 565 – 886 billion tonnes (Gt) isotopes agree that sea level was at practically, the Chinese government
of carbon dioxide could be emitted least 15 to 25 m above today’s levels has agreed to impose carbon targets
before 2050.137 The world’s proven with correspondingly smaller ice by 2016 - a ceiling on greenhouse
fossil fuel reserves amount to 2,860 Gt sheets and lower continental aridity.140 gas emissions.144
of CO2, however, and are viewed as
assets by companies and countries.
Since it is likely that these assets
Figure 14-15, Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, via http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/
cannot be realised, these entities observations/2013/05/09/400-ppm-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere-reaches-prehistoric-levels
are over-valued at current prices –
arguably, a “carbon bubble.”
The report provides evidence that

serious risks are growing for high-
carbon assets, and aims to help
investors and regulators manage
these risks more effectively and
prepare for a global agreement on
emissions reductions. It indirectly
highlights part of the challenge of
emissions reductions: they will mean
the loss of highly valuable assets to
corporations and governments.
02-May-13: CO2 at 400 PPM

for the first time in > 800,000 years138
– Event
The Mauna Loa carbon dioxide

record, also known as the “Keeling
Curve,” is the world’s longest
unbroken record of atmospheric CO2
concentrations. It recently reached
400 ppm (parts per million) of CO2.
Such concentrations have not been
reached for at least 800,000 years,139
placing humanity in a historically
unprecedented situation.
3.1 Current risks
22-May-13: Private Sector Initiative 27-Sep-13: IPCC report: “Climate Change – The rate of sea level rise since
- database of actions on adaptation145 2013: The Physical Science Basis” 147 the mid-19th century has been
– Initiative – Research larger than the mean rate during
the previous two millennia (high
Global warming is an externality146 – a The 5th IPCC report “considers new confidence). Over the period 1901 to
consequence of business decisions evidence of climate change based 2010, global mean sea level rose by
made by entities that do not bear the on many independent scientific 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m.
full cost of what they decide – so the analyses from observations of the
drive to mitigate its effects is more climate system, palaeoclimate – The atmospheric concentrations
likely to come from governmental or archives, theoretical studies of climate of carbon dioxide, methane, and
supra-governmental organisations. processes and simulations using nitrous oxide have increased to
Nevertheless, the private sector has climate models.” It concludes that: levels unprecedented in at least the
been involved in mitigation attempts for last 800,000 years. Carbon dioxide
a variety of reasons, from investment – Warming of the climate system is concentrations have increased by
opportunities to public relations. The unequivocal, and since the 1950s 40% since pre-industrial times,
United Nations Framework Convention many of the observed changes primarily from fossil fuel emissions
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are unprecedented over decades and secondarily from net land use
maintains a database of some of these to millennia. The atmosphere and change emissions.
attempts, ranging from Ericsson’s oceans have warmed, the amounts
enabling access to climate services in of snow and ice have diminished, The report further predicted, amongst
Uganda, through BASF’s development sea level has risen, and the other points, that:
of new technologies for food security, concentrations of greenhouse gases
Allianz insurers rewarding sustainable have increased. – Continued emissions of greenhouse
business practices, all the way to gases will cause further warming
Chiles de Nicaragua’s attempts to – Human influence on the climate and changes in all components of
enable small agro-exporters to adapt to system is clear. This is evident from the climate system. Limiting climate
climate change – and many more. the increasing greenhouse gas change will require substantial and
concentrations in the atmosphere, sustained reductions of greenhouse
The potential opportunities for private positive radiative forcing, observed gas emissions.
companies are listed as: warming, and understanding of the
climate system. It is extremely likely – The oceans will continue to warm
– New market opportunities and that human influence has been the during the 21st century. Heat will
expansion; dominant cause of the observed penetrate from the surface to the deep
– Development of climate-friendly warming since the mid-20th century. ocean and affect ocean circulation.
goods and services; Further uptake of carbon by the oceans
– Potential cost savings; – Each of the last three decades has will increase ocean acidification.
– Risk reduction measures, including been successively warmer at the Global mean sea level will continue
physical operations; Earth’s surface than any preceding to rise during the 21st century.
– Climate proofing the supply chain; decade since 1850.
– Enhanced corporate social – It is very likely that Arctic sea ice
responsibility. – Over the last two decades, the cover will continue to shrink and
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets become thinner. Global glacier
have been losing mass, glaciers volume will further decrease.
have continued to shrink almost
worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and – Most aspects of climate change
Northern Hemisphere spring snow will persist for many centuries even
cover have continued to decrease if emissions of CO2 are stopped.
in extent.
3.1 Current risks
27-Sep-13: Launch of the Global Risk 23-Nov-13: Limited progress at Warsaw 03-Dec-13 Abrupt Impacts of Climate
and Opportunity Indicator (GROI) 148 COP 19 climate negotiations 149 Change: Anticipating Surprises155
– Research – Policy – Research
Launched by the Global Challenge The global environment can be Climate change has been developing
Foundation, this Indicator is a web tool considered a global public good (i.e. gradually, at least on the human
for illustrating quantified risks, with non-excludable and non-rivalrous).150 scale156 (though very rapidly on a
the objective of increasing awareness Economic theory claims that such geological timescale157). This may
about global risks and opportunities goods will be undersupplied by the not continue, however: this paper
and helping guide the changes required market.151 Hence the importance of looks at the potential for abrupt
in the global governance system. The trans-national negotiations to address changes in physical, biological, and
site is still under construction; the climate change. human systems, in response to
Foundation’s aims are to achieve, by steady climate change. It highlights
the end of 2014: Despite the importance of the subject, two abrupt changes that are already
the main achievement of the Warsaw under way: the rapid decline in sea
1. An interactive Global Risk & negotiations was to keep talks on ice158 and the extinction pressure on
Opportunity Indicator that allows track for more negotiations in 2015.152 species.159 On the other hand, some
users to calculate the probability Though there was general agreement widely discussed abrupt changes –
for any global warming, between on the necessity of cutting carbon the rapid shutdown of the Atlantic
one and ten degrees Celsius, emissions, the dispute was over Meridional Overturning Circulation160
at different greenhouse gas how to share the burden of doing and the rapid release of methane
concentrations. The indicator so. In this instance, the debate was from either thawing permafrost161 or
will then be further developed to between more- and less-developed methane hydrates162 – are shown to
illustrate interdependencies with countries, with the latter demanding be unlikely to occur this century.
other global risks and highlight compensation from the former to
opportunities for minimising the help them cope with the burden of The report argues that large
risks. Subsequent development reducing emissions. That particular uncertainties about the likelihood of
will allow users to change different dispute was papered over,153 but some potential abrupt changes163
underlying assumptions and see similar ones will be likely in future due highlight the need for expanded
the corresponding change in risk. to the range of different actors and research and monitoring, and propose
their divergent agendas.154 an abrupt change early warning
2. Methodology and data to system. The aim would be to foresee
estimate probabilities for a number abrupt change before it occurs, and
of climate impacts at different reduce the potential consequences.
temperature levels, e.g., sea level
rise, droughts, flooding and heat
waves, as well as to explore the risk
of runaway global warming.
3. Methodology and data to

estimate the probability of
existential climate threats, i.e., to
estimate the risk that climate change
impacts pose a significant threat
to human civilisation – defined as a
serious negative impact on at least
two billion people.
3.1 Current risks
Global Governance Pandemic Collap
3.1 Current risks
3.1 Current risks
3.1.2 Nuclear War
Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthe

Biolog
After their use in Hiroshima and Nagasaki

nuclear weapons have never been used in
a conflict, but because they are extremely
powerful and could cause destruction
throughout the world, the possibility of
nuclear war has had a great effect on
international politics. 164
3.1 Current risks
3.1.2.1 Expected impact There are some uncertainties about society to the point where recovery
both the climate models and the becomes impossible178 before
likelihood of devastating firestorms,174 humanity succumbs179 to other risks,
The likelihood of a full-scale nuclear but the risks are severe and recent such as pandemics.180
war between the USA and Russia has models175 have confirmed the earlier176
probably decreased in recent decades analysis. Even a smaller nuclear
3.1.2.2 Probability
due to some improvements in relations conflict (between India and Pakistan,
between these two countries and for instance) could trigger a smaller disaggregation
reductions in the size of their arsenals. nuclear winter which would place
Still, the potential for deliberate or billions in danger.177 Five important factors in
accidental165 nuclear conflict has not estimating the probabilities and
been removed, with some estimates The disintegration of the global impacts of the challenge:
putting the risk of nuclear war in the food supply would make mass
next century or so at around 10%166 – it starvation and state collapse likely. 1. How relations between current
may have been mostly down to luck As the world balance of power and future nuclear powers develop.
that such a war did not happen in the would be dramatically shifted and 2. The probability of accidental war.
last half century167. previous ideological positions 3. Whether disarmament efforts will
called into question, large-scale war succeed in reducing the number of
A nuclear war could have a range of would be likely. This could lead to a nuclear warheads.
different impacts. At the lowest end civilisation collapse. 4. The likelihood of a nuclear winter.
is the most obvious and immediate 5. The long-term effects of a nuclear
impact: destruction and death in Extinction risk is only possible if war on climate, infrastructure
major cities across the world, due to the aftermath of the nuclear war and technology.
the explosions themselves and the fragments and diminishes human
radioactive fallout. But even if the
entire populations of Europe, Russia
and the USA were directly wiped
out in a nuclear war – an outcome
that some studies have shown to
be physically impossible168, given
population dispersal and the number
of missiles in existence169 – that
would not raise the war to the first
level of impact, which requires > 2
billion affected.170
A larger impact would depend on

whether or not the war triggered what
is often called a nuclear winter or
something similar.171 The term refers
to the creation of a pall of smoke high
in the stratosphere that would plunge
temperatures below freezing around
the globe and possibly also destroy
most of the ozone layer.172
The detonations would need to

start firestorms in the targeted
cities, which could lift the soot up
into the stratosphere.173
3.1 Current risks NUCLEAR WAR
US-Russia
relations
Number of Relations between Full-scale

Disarmament future major future major Nuclear attack Deliberate
efforts Nuclear War
nuclear powers Global
nuclear powers Technological attempts to
Global povety Global instability coordination innovations construct world
dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty
Number of Proliferation:
onfuture
tradeoffs
small desire for Nuclear terrorism Nuclear security
between New system
nuclear e.g.
powers nuclear
of weapons
governance
Smart sensors
poverty, survival,
freedom
Relations Proliferation: Nuclear

between future building nuclear accidents or
nuclear powers weapons misunderstandings

Relations Meta-certainty Meta-certainty

between current of political of changes in the Small-scale
nuclear powers predictions military technology Nuclear War
Not achieving Disruption to

Global Lack of human
Nuclear poverty
Enduring attack Firestorm risks
important world politics
Climate change Firestorm risks
pollution flourishing
ethical goals and economy
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
War casualties Small Post-war politics Nuclear Winter War casualties

Nuclear Winter
Disruption to Collapse of Long-term
Post-disaster
politics
and economy
Total Long-term
short term impact
casualties
Extinction
Pre-war casualty
Extinction countermeasures Civisation
(bunkers, food...) collapse
Key
KeyUncertain events Current

Meta-uncertainties Risk events Direct impacts Indirect impacts intervention areas Bad decisions Accidents Severe impacts
Current
3.1 Current risks
1. The success or failure of 11. A small-scale nuclear war could 21. Since a major nuclear power
disarmament will determine the start with an attack by one or more must be one of the parties to a major
number of nuclear warheads available nuclear powers. nuclear war, the number of the former
for a future nuclear conflict. affects the probability of the latter.
12. A full-scale nuclear war could start
2. The first step of proliferation with an attack by one or more major 22. Post-war politics will be
is countries desiring to possess nuclear powers. determined by the war, the disruption
nuclear weapons. Various political it caused, and the number of
interventions may reduce or increase 13. Aside from attacks, the other casualties it inflicted.
this desire. way a nuclear war could start would
be through accidental firings or 23. Unlike other risks, nuclear
3. The second step of proliferation is misinterpretations of other incidents. weapons are targeted by humans,
countries building nuclear weapons. so may take out important parts
Various mechanisms, agreements and 14. Firestorms caused by burning of the world’s infrastructure (and
inspections may be relevant cities are one of the main ways conventional weapons used in a
a nuclear conflict could cause conflict may have the same effect).
4. Nuclear terrorism may be the trigger major climate disruption, and
of a larger nuclear conflict, especially hence high casualties. 24. Unlike other risks, nuclear
if the detonation is misinterpreted as a weapons are targeted by humans, so
traditional attack. 15. The direct war casualties from may take out important parts of the
a nuclear conflict are likely to be world’s technology and research base
5. The security of nuclear weapons small compared with the potential (and conventional weapons used in a
and materials affects both the climate effects. conflict may have the same effect).
probability of nuclear terrorism and the
control likelihood of nuclear accidents. 16. A nuclear winter is the way 25. Maintaining a technology base
in which a nuclear conflict could will be complicated by the possible
6. The relations between future have the most damaging effects targeting of infrastructure and the
nuclear powers will be the major on the world. technology base during a conflict.
determinant of whether a nuclear war
breaks out. 17. Even a smaller nuclear conflict 26. The further development of military
could trigger a smaller nuclear technology is hard to predict. The
7. The relations between current winter that could have major current balance of power under MAD
nuclear powers will be a major disruptive effects on agriculture (mutually assured destruction) is
determinant of the relations between and hence human survival. based on certain assumptions about
future nuclear powers. the effectiveness of nuclear weapons,
18. Any war will have a disruptive such as second strike capability. If this
8. The relations between future major impact on the world’s politics and were removed (such as by effective
nuclear powers will be the major economy. A nuclear conflict – possibly submarine detection, or anti-ballistic
component of determining whether a accompanied by a nuclear winter – missile shields), the effect on the
major nuclear war breaks out. even more so. balance of power is hard to predict.
9. Relations between the USA and 19. The long term impact of nuclear 27. The course of international politics
Russia (the only current major nuclear winter, infrastructure disruption, and is extremely hard to predict, even for
powers) will be a major determinant possibly radiation, will determine the political scientists.181
of the relations between future major likelihood of collapse and rebuilding.
nuclear powers.
20. Since a nuclear power must be
10. Pre-war countermeasures (such one of the parties to a nuclear war,
as nuclear bunkers and food stores) the number of the former affects the
can help mitigate the casualties of a probability of the latter.
smaller nuclear conflict.
3.1 Current risks
3.1.2.3 Main events Though the situation remains a – It is unlikely that any state or
potential flashpoint for conventional international body could address the
during 2013 and nuclear conflict, and its collapse immediate humanitarian emergency
could have disastrous consequences191 caused by a nuclear weapon
12-Feb-13: North Korea carries out (including the possibility of “loose detonation in an adequate manner
third, largest nuclear test 182 nukes” becoming available to various and provide sufficient assistance to
– Event groups), it should be noted that the those affected. Moreover, it might
“North Korean problem” has existed not be possible to establish such
On 12 February 2013, North Korea carried in one form or another since the end capacities at all.
out its third nuclear test. The test was of the Korean War in 1953, without – The historical experience from the
condemned across the world, 183 erupting into open conflict.192 use and testing of nuclear weapons
and led to increased sanctions184 has demonstrated their devastating
against the already isolated nation.185 immediate and long-term effects.
North Korea is the only nation to have 04-Mar-13: Conference: Humanitarian While political circumstances have
withdrawn from the Nuclear Non- Impact of Nuclear Weapons 193 changed, the destructive potential of
Proliferation Treaty,186 and is the only – Policy nuclear weapons remains.
country to have conducted nuclear – The effects of a nuclear weapon
tests in the 21st century, starting On 4 and 5 March 2013, the detonation, irrespective of cause,
in 2006, 187 as well as developing a Norwegian Minister of Foreign will not be limited by national
ballistic missile capability.188 It has also Affairs, Espen Barth Eide, hosted borders, and will affect states and
been involved in the export of weapons an international conference on the people to significant degrees,
technology, undermining the Treaty.189 humanitarian impact of nuclear regionally as well as globally.
Diplomatic attempts to deal with North weapons. The conference heard
Korea (especially on the part of the presentations on the effects of A number of states wished to explore
United States) have generally been nuclear weapons detonations. these issues further, and Mexico said it
inconsistent and unsuccessful.190 Three key points emerged: would host a follow-up conference.194
Worldwide nuclear testing, 1945-2013
Figure 16, Source: Wikimedia Commons, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

File:Worldwide_nuclear_testing.svg CC-BY-SA license.
3.1 Current risks
16-May-13: Revealed: The USSR 24-Jun-13: Report: “Analysing and Then it combined the fault tree-based
and US Came Closer to Nuclear War Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent risk models with parameter estimates
Than Was Thought 195 Nuclear War Between the United sourced from the academic literature,
– Research States and Russia” 204 characterising uncertainties in the
– Research form of probability distributions,
Documents recently released under a with propagation of uncertainties
FOIA (US Freedom Of Information Act) Though the end of the Cold War has in the fault tree using Monte Carlo
request show that the risk of nuclear reduced the likelihood of deliberate simulation methods. Finally, it also
conflict between the superpowers nuclear war, its impact on the risk performed sensitivity analyses to
was higher than realised at the time. of accidental nuclear war is much identify dominant risks under various
The large-scale 1983 NATO nuclear smaller. The arsenals remain on assumptions. This kind of highly
exercises Able Archer 83” spurred “a “launch on warning”,205 meaning that disaggregated analysis is most likely
high level of Soviet military activity, there is a possibility for a “retaliatory” to elicit the best performance and
with new deployments of weapons strike before an attack is confirmed. estimates from experts.209
and strike forces.” This unprecedented The most likely cause of such an
Soviet reaction in turn created a accident is either a false warning Their conclusion was that (under the
series of introspective US intelligence (of which there have been many, more pessimistic assumption), there
analyses and counter-analyses, with causes ranging from weather was a mean 2% risk of accidental
debating whether US intelligence phenomena to a faulty computer nuclear war a year (a high risk when
had actually understood Soviet chip, wild animal activity, and control- compounded over several decades),
actions, perceptions, and fears – and room training tapes loaded at the with the risk from false alarm being
acknowledging the danger of nuclear wrong time)206 or a misinterpreted orders of magnitude higher than that
“miscalculation” if it had not.196 terrorist attack.207 from terrorist attacks. The analysis
suggests that the most important
This is but one of the many nuclear The report attempted a rigorous inadvertent nuclear war risk factor is the
accidents197 and incidents that estimate of the numerical probability short launch decision times,210 inherent
peppered the Cold War and its of nuclear war. Such numerical rigour in the “launch on warning” posture.
aftermath, and which have been is rare, with the exception of Hellman’s Some ways of improving this were
revealed only subsequently. We know estimates.208 This report applied risk suggested, for instance by moving each
now that there were at least three analysis methods using fault trees and country’s strategic submarines away
occasions – the Cuban missile crisis in mathematical modelling to assess the from the other’s coasts.
1962,198 the Petrov incident in 1983199 relative risks of multiple inadvertent
and the Norwegian rocket incident in nuclear war scenarios previously
1995200 – where a full-scale nuclear identified in the literature.
war was only narrowly averted.201
Further information on these incidents,
and on how they were interpreted
and misinterpreted202 by the great
powers, will be important to estimate
the probability of nuclear conflict
in the coming decades. On a more
positive note, efforts are being made
to reduce the probability of inadvertent
or accidental nuclear conflicts.203
3.1 Current risks
03-Sep-13: Report of the UN 15-Nov-13: International Physicians 24-Nov-13: Nuclear deal with Iran
General Assembly working group on for the Prevention of Nuclear War may reduce risk of proliferation 224
“Taking Forward Multilateral Nuclear report: “Nuclear Famine: Two Billion – Policy
Disarmament Negotiations” 211 People at Risk?” 218
– Policy – Research In November, Iran struck a deal
with the so called “P5+1” (the five
The working group had extensive This report is one of a series of permanent members of the security
exchanges of view from different reports and publications in recent council, plus Germany). The deal, if
participants, and reviewed existing years about the potential impacts of it holds, would allow Iran to continue
disarmament commitments and nuclear conflicts.219 It looked at the some uranium enrichment, but it
proposals, including international law. likely consequences of a “limited” would have to submit to inspections
The issues surrounding disarmament nuclear war, such as between India to ensure it wasn’t developing a
and treaties were analysed in depth, and Pakistan. nuclear weapons programme (the deal
and several proposals were put would also result in eased sanctions
forward, with an eye to the complete While previous papers had estimated in return). There have been long-
elimination of nuclear weapons. that up to a billion people might running fears than Iran may have been
be at risk in such a conflict,220 this attempting to construct a nuclear
A key recognition was, however, that report increased the estimate to weapon225, resulting in sanctions
“participants recognised the absence two billion. The main source of this being imposed on it.226
of concrete outcomes of multilateral increase is decreased agricultural
nuclear disarmament negotiations production in the United States221 This event illustrates the surprising
within the United Nations framework and in China.222 A key component success of the Non-Proliferation
for more than a decade”. Indeed, of these estimates was the severe Treaty,227 which came into force in
though the Nuclear Non-Proliferation agricultural impact of the relatively 1970. At the time it was proposed
Treaty212 (NPT) is a multilateral treaty mild temperature reduction in 1816, there were fears of very rapid
closely connected with the United the “year without a summer” 223, proliferation of nuclear weapons.228
Nations, and though it committed due mainly to the “volcanic winter” And though 40 countries or more
the nuclear powers to reduce their caused by the eruption of Mount currently have the knowhow to
arsenals, all the major nuclear arms Tambora. The report highlights some build nuclear weapons,229 only nine
reduction deals have been bilateral significant areas of uncertainty, countries are currently known to
treaties between the US and the such as whether a small nuclear possess them: the five security council
USSR/Russia. These include the INF conflict and its consequences would members, India, Pakistan, and North
treaty213, START I214, SORT215, and New lead to further conflicts across the Korea, plus Israel.230
START216, which have significantly world, and doubts whether markets,
reduced the world’s stock of nuclear governments and other organisations
weapons. It has also been argued could mitigate the negative impacts.
that the NPT has been undermined The report is a reminder that even
by a number of bilateral deals made small-scale nuclear conflict could
by NPT signatories, most notably have severe consequences.
the United States.217 This further
serves to emphasise the weakness of
international institutions where nuclear
arms control is concerned.
3.1 Current risks
Intelligence Climate Change Global
3.1 Current risks
3.1 Current risks
3.1.3 Ecological
Catastrophe
Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclea

Catastrophe
Ecological collapse refers to a situation

where an ecosystem suffers a drastic,
possibly permanent, reduction in carrying
capacity for all organisms, often resulting
in mass extinction.
Usually an ecological collapse

is precipitated by a disastrous event
occurring on a short time scale. 231
3.1 Current risks
3.1.3.1 Expected impact There is currently more than enough 3.1.3.2 Probability
food for everyone on the planet to
ensure the nutrition needed, 240 but
disaggregation
Humans are part of the global its distribution is extremely uneven
ecosystem and so fundamentally and malnutrition persists. Thus Five important factors in
depend on it for our welfare. ecological collapse need not have estimating the probabilities and
a strong absolute effect in order to impacts of the challenge:
Species extinction is proceeding at result in strong localised, or global,
a greatly increased rate compared effects. Even a partial collapse could 1. The extent to which humans are
with historic data232, and attempts to lead to wars, mass migrations, and dependent on the ecosystem.
quantify a safe ecological operating social instability. It is conceivable that 2. Whether there will be effective
space place humanity well outside such a scenario, if drawn out and political measures taken to protect
it.233 Furthermore, there may be signs exacerbated by poor decision-making, the ecosystem on a large scale.
of a “sudden” biosphere collapse, could eventually lead to mass deaths 3. The likelihood of the emergence
possibly within a few generations.234 and even the collapse of civilisation. of sustainable economies.
Many of the problems of ecological 4. The positive and negative
degradation interact to multiply Extinction risk is possible only if the impacts on the eco systems of
the damage and (unlike previous, aftermath of collapse fragments both wealth and poverty.
localised collapses) the whole world and diminishes human society 5. The long-term effects of an
is potentially at risk, 235 with severe so far that recovery becomes ecological collapse on ecosystems.
challenges to countering this risk impossible241 before humanity
through global policy.236 succumbs to other risks (such as
climate change or pandemics).
If animals are seen to have intrinsic
value, 237 or if human quality of After a post-civilisation collapse,
life is dependent on a functioning human society could still be suffering
ecosystem, 238 the current situation from the effects of ecological
already represents a large loss. collapse, and depending on what
form it took, this could make the
Whether such a loss will extend to recovery of human civilisation more
human lives depends on technological challenging than in some of the other
and political factors - technological, scenarios presented here.
because it seems plausible that some
human lifestyles could be sustained
in a relatively ecosystem-independent
way, at relatively low costs.239 Whether
this can be implemented on a large
scale in practice, especially during a
collapse, will be a political challenge
and whether it is something we want
is an ethical question.
ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHE
3.1 Current risks
Post-eco-collapse Global Sustainability
climate change Global poverty coordination research
Long-term
ecological effects Deliberate
Global Technological attempts to
dictatorship
Quality of life Ecological Preservation

Meta-uncertainty loss from collapse efforts
on tradeoffs ecosystem loss
freedom
Threat to Moral tragedy from Pollution

food supply ecosystem loss

Loss of Pre-eco-collapse
Economic costs
biodiversity climate change
Disruption to
Rebuilding politics and Post-eco-collapse
the ecosystem economy politics

ethical goals
Vulnerabilities Sustainable or New,

to flood and non-sustainable environmentally
other disasters economies damaging industries
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Pre-eco-collapse Technological
mitigation efforts innovations
Post-disaster
politics
and economy
Human survivability Meta-uncertainty on the true dependence of

in “closed” systems humanity on the ecosystem

Extinction
Total short-term Civilisation Extinction

casualties collapse
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.1 Current risks
1. Global coordination and 9. New, profitable, but environmentally 19. Technological innovations
cooperation will be important to any damaging industries could put extra may result in more sustainable
attempt to control ecological damage strain on the ecosystem. economies, or in more
on a large scale and prevent “races to environmentally damaging products.
the bottom”. 10. According to some systems of
value, the loss of certain animals 20. It may be possible to
2. Poverty is often seen as and ecosystems constitutes a moral ensure human survival in semi-
exacerbating ecological damage tragedy in and of itself. “closed” systems (solar power,
through unsustainable practices, hydroponic food, distilled water),
while richer countries introduce 11. Humans derive much pleasure and with minimal dependency on the
environmental regulations – but richer many benefits from various parts of external ecosystem.
nations exploit many resources (such the ecosystem, and losing this would
as fossil fuels) in non-sustainable and result in a loss to human quality of life. 21. Over the long term, it may become
damaging ways. possible and necessary to go about
12. Ongoing and continuous rebuilding the ecosystem and healing
3. Transitioning to sustainable biodiversity loss is a clear its damage.
economies, or sustainable consequence of ecological collapse.
economic trajectories, could control 22. Political decisions will be the most
ecological damage. 13. Ecological damage can put likely factors to exacerbate or mitigate
the human food system in danger, an ecological disaster.
4. Research into sustainability could triggering famines.
allow the construction of sustainable 23. It is unclear how dependent
economies or environments at costs 14. Ecological damage increases humans truly are on the
that people are willing to bear. vulnerability to floods and other ecosystem, and how much
natural disasters. damage they could inflict without
5. Climate change exacerbates the threatening their own survival.
pressure on the ecological system 15. Disruptions to the world’s political
by changing weather patterns and and economic systems could trigger
increasing natural disasters in ways further conflicts or instabilities,
ecosystems find hard to adapt to. causing more casualties and impairing
effective response.
6. Global pollution is a visible source
of ecological damage, one that global 16. Since a lot of the world’s carbon is
agreements have had moderate locked up in trees, ecological collapse
success at tackling. could exacerbate climate change.
7. Truly global preservation efforts 17. The ecosystem is of great

may be needed for some threatened economic benefit to humanity,
ecosystems that stretch beyond so its loss would have large
natural boundaries (e.g. in the seas economic costs.
and oceans).
18. Ecological damage is likely to
8. Beyond general all-purpose be long-term: the effects will last for
mitigation efforts, addressing many generations.
this threat could include the
preservation of ecosystems,
species or genetic codes, to allow a
subsequent rebuilding.
3.1 Current risks
3.1.3.3 Main events 05-Apr-13: Ocean data added to 30-May-13: Improvement in

Microsoft Eye on Earth project managed fisheries in Europe 252
during 2013 – Initiative – Research
22-Jan-13: Current extinctions In order to safeguard ecological Human action has been shown to
probably the result of past actions; resources, it is important to be able to mitigate some ecosystem
many future extinctions to come 242 track and quantify them. This damage. Overfishing is expected by
– Research has traditionally been the role of standard economic theory: the sea’s
governments or non-governmental resources are a (global) common,
An estimated 40% of world trade organisations.248 Recently, where the rational behaviour of
is based on biological products however, private organisations individual fishermen must lead to
or processes such as agriculture, have started developing tools to dilapidation of the resource.253 Unlike
forestry, fisheries and plant-derived enable companies and individuals on land, where nature reserves or
pharmaceuticals, and biodiversity to track ecological damage and parks can be established, there
comprises an invaluable pool make decisions in consequence. are no easy ways of establishing
for innovations.243 And yet this One such tool was Eye on Earth, property rights in the sea254 (thus
biodiversity is being lost at an developed by Microsoft in alliance privatising that “common”). A
alarming rate – the rate of extinctions with the European Environment typical example of this behaviour
for plants and animals is 100 to 1,000 Agency and Esri.249 It was launched is the collapse of the Grand Banks
times higher than their pre-human with three services – WaterWatch, fisheries off Canada’s Atlantic coast
levels.244 A variety of methods have AirWatch and NoiseWatch – keeping in the 1990s, where cod biomass fell
been suggested to halt or slow track of the levels of different by over 95% from its peak and has
this loss, ranging from putting an pollutants, using official sources currently not recovered.255
explicit value245 on biodiversity and and inputs from citizens.250 This was
ecosystem services (human benefits subsequently expanded to include It is therefore significant that the
from a multitude of resources and other environmentally sensitive European Union has been partly
processes that are supplied by pieces of information, such as the successful in its attempts to control
ecosystems), 246 to performing triage states of coral reefs and invasive over-fishing through legislation.
on the most valuable species.247 This alien species. For instance, despite the fact that
research paper suggests, however, North Sea cod remains vulnerable,
that there is a lag of several decades It was primarily land-based, so there has been a recent increase
between human pressure on the the oceans were missing from in stock size and a decrease in
ecosystem and ultimate species this visualisation tool. This lack fish mortality. This may point to
extinction. This suggests that many has been partially overcome the potential for further ecological
extinctions will continue in decades with the inclusion of data from improvements through well-chosen
to come, irrespective of current the MyOcean 2 project251 policy interventions.
conservation efforts. (partly funded by the European
Commission). The data cover sea
surface temperature, salinity and
currents for the Mediterranean Sea
and the Black Sea.
3.1 Current risks
02-Jul-13: About 21,000 Species Face

Extinction, says International Union
for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 256
– Event
In 2013 the IUCN added an additional

4,807 species to its Red List of
Threatened Species. This brings
the total to about 21,000. Some
have argued that we are entering
a new geological era in Earth’s
history: the Anthropocene257, when
human actions are one of the major
impactors on the planet’s biosphere.
The graph shows a fairly steady

growth in the (estimated) number of
threatened species. This steadiness
may be illusory, as the biosphere
shows signs that it may be
Figure 17: Collapse of Atlantic cod stocks (East Coast of Newfoundland), 1992 approaching a planetary-scale tipping
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Surexploitation_morue_surp%C3%AAcheEn.jpg)
point, where it may shift abruptly
and irreversibly from one state to
another. As a result, the biological
resources humans presently take
for granted may be subject to rapid
and unpredictable transformations
within a few human generations.258
This could be seen as a great tragedy
beyond purely human concerns, if
animals (and animal welfare) are seen
to have intrinsic value.259
Figure 18: Increase in the number of species assessed for the IUCN Red List of Threatened SpeciesTM (2000–2013.2).
Source: http://www.iucnredlist.org/about/summary-statistics
3.1 Current risks
3.1 Current risks
3.1.4 Global
Pandemic
Global Global System Major

Pandemic Collapse Impac
A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan,

“all”, and δῆμος demos, “people”)
is an epidemic of infectious disease
that has spread through human populations
Super-volcano Synthetic Unkno
across a large region; for instance
Biology Conse
several continents, or even worldwide.
Here only worldwide events are included.

A widespread endemic disease
that is stable in terms of how many people
become sick from it is not a pandemic.
260
3.1 Current risks
3.1.4.1 Expected impact Many relevant features of the world Extinction risk is only possible if the
have changed considerably, making aftermath of the epidemic fragments
past comparisons problematic. and diminishes human society to
Infectious diseases have been one The modern world has better the extent that recovery becomes
of the greatest causes of mortality sanitation and medical research, as impossible277 before humanity
in history. Unlike many other well as national and supra-national succumbs to other risks (such as
global challenges pandemics have institutions dedicated to combating climate change or further pandemics).
happened recently, as we can see diseases. Private insurers are also
where reasonably good data exist. interested in modelling pandemic
Plotting historic epidemic fatalities risks.273 Set against this is the fact
3.1.4.2 Probability
on a log scale reveals that these that modern transport and dense disaggregation
tend to follow a power law with a human population allow infections
small exponent: many plagues have to spread much more rapidly274, Five important factors in
been found to follow a power law and there is the potential for urban estimating the probabilities and
with exponent 0.26.261 slums to serve as breeding grounds impacts of the challenge:
for disease.275
These kinds of power laws are 1. What the true probability
heavy-tailed262 to a significant Unlike events such as nuclear wars, distribution for pandemics is,
degree.263 In consequence most of pandemics would not damage the especially at the tail.
the fatalities are accounted for by the world’s infrastructure, and initial 2. The capacity of modern
top few events.264 If this law holds for survivors would likely be resistant international health systems to
future pandemics as well,265 then the to the infection. And there would deal with an extreme pandemic.
majority of people who will die from probably be survivors, if only in 3. How fast medical research can
epidemics will likely die from the isolated locations. Hence the risk proceed in an emergency.
single largest pandemic. of a civilisation collapse would 4. How mobility of goods and
come from the ripple effect of the people, as well as population
Most epidemic fatalities follow a fatalities and the policy responses. density, will affect pandemic
power law, with some extreme These would include political and transmission.
events – such as the Black Death agricultural disruption as well as 5. Whether humans can develop
and Spanish Flu – being even economic dislocation and damage novel and effective anti-pandemic
more deadly.267 to the world’s trade network solutions.
(including the food trade).
There are other grounds for
suspecting that such a high-
impact epidemic will have a greater
probability than usually assumed.
All the features of an extremely
devastating disease already exist
in nature: essentially incurable
(Ebola268), nearly always fatal
(rabies269), extremely infectious
(common cold270), and long
incubation periods (HIV271). If a
pathogen were to emerge that
somehow combined these features
(and influenza has demonstrated
antigenic shift, the ability to combine
features from different viruses272),
its death toll would be extreme.
Influenza subtypes266
3.1 Current risks
GLOBAL PANDEMIC
Contact with Small pandemic
reservoir species Global poverty scares
Impact ofDeliberate
Global
Density of Technological
Global increasedattempts to
Global povety
Medical research GlobalBio-terrorism
instability coordination innovations construct world
population coordination movement of
goods anddictatorship
people
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
Impact of Healthcare in Pandemic
freedom Accidental release Antibiotics
sanitation or individual combining
from lab resistance different deadly
lack thereof countries
features
Impact of FailingPandemic
to solve Improvements to Making
Deadlygovernance
global things worse Post-pandemic
monoculture leaping
important the
problems pandemic Smart sensors politics
food supply species barrier
Impact on meat Disruption to Effectiveness of

Pandemic production and world politics Direct casualties
transmission countermeasures
food supply
Not achieving and economy Global Lack of human
ethical goals
Undesirable
Long-term fate world system
of pandemic virus/ (e.g. global
bacteria/parasite dictatorship)

Post-disaster
politics
and economy
Pre-pandemic
medical Total short-term
contingency plans casualties
Meta-uncertainty of how the changed world Civilisation

Extinction
has affected pandemic probabilities collapse
Extinction
Meta-uncertainty of what probability

distributions pandemics follow
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.1 Current risks
1. Extensive medical research 9. Mass casualties and finger-pointing 20. The improvements to surveillance
will be key to preventing and could destabilise the world political and sensing technologies (including
combatting large scale pandemics. and economic systems. indirect detection via web queries or
The drawbacks are the possibility social media) open the possibility of
of accidental release of dangerous 10. If the pathogen is transmissible smarter interventions (such as micro-
pathogens from laboratories and to farm animals, this could affect the quarantines) and faster understanding
of bioterrorism. world food supply. of the pathogen’s transmissibility.
2. As so much is known about 11. It is unlikely the pathogen would 21. Post-pandemic politics will be
pandemic risks compared with be a recurrent, long-term risk, but important for preventing a civilisation
other risks, there are more variants of it could continue to affect collapse or enabling reconstruction.
possibilities for specific pre- people and animals for many years,
pandemic contingency plans. dependent on its transmissibility and 22. Many pathogens incubate in
life cycle. species close to humans, before
3. The effectiveness of healthcare leaping the species barrier.
systems will be important, especially 12. Small pandemic scares could
in less developed nations where improve global coordination on 23. Monoculture food systems make
the pandemic may overwhelm the the issue. it easier to transmit any pathogen
system, and then transmit from there infecting human food animals.
to other nations. 13. Increased population density
causes increased transmissibility 24. The mode of transmission of the
4. Global coordination in detection, of the pathogen, especially in pathogen will be critical to its ultimate
analysis and treatment are vital urban slums. reach and impact.
for stopping a pandemic in its
early stages, and for implementing 14. Some pathogens, such as bird flu, 25. Various countermeasures are
measures such as quarantines and depend on regular contact between available in terms of detection,
more advanced countermeasures. humans and “reservoir species” virus analysis, treatment, and
in order to evolve into periodically quarantining. Future research,
5. Poverty will affect the quality dangerous strains. technological and political
of national healthcare systems, developments may open
population density and sanitation 15. If antibiotic resistance develops, up new methods of fighting
quality, the movement of local goods humanity could see the resurgence of the pathogen.
and people, and the effectiveness of bacteria-based pandemics.
the political response. 26. Many of the current factors
16. The increased movement of determining pathogen transmission
6. Bioterrorists may unleash a people and products increases are unprecedented, such as
pathogen held in storage, such the speed and spread of movements of goods and people, the
as smallpox. pandemic transmission. quality of healthcare systems, and
the existence of a centralised political
7. Laboratory security at the top labs 17. Sanitation or its lack will strongly response. This means that data from
is insufficient for the danger at hand, affect the spread of certain pathogens past pandemics will not be as reliable
and accidental release is a non- in key areas. for computing probability distributions.
negligible possibility.
18. The efficiency of global reaction 27. The pandemic risk lies in the
8. Pandemics are one of the risks to a new pandemic will be strongly “tails” – the extreme events – and
where there is a possibility for a determined by the speed of research these tails must be estimated from
very large number of direct on the pathogen during the pandemic. few data points, making them tricky
casualties, depending on the and uncertain.
severity of the pathogen. 19. A great risk will arise if a pathogen
combines the different dangerous
features of current viruses or bacteria.
3.1 Current risks
3.1.4.3 Main events The guidance paper indicates 09-Aug-13: Epihack: Digital disease
simultaneously the weaknesses surveillance hack-a-thon 292
during 2013 of pandemic preparations, – Initiative
the improvements in these
10-Jun-13: Pandemic Influenza preparations, and the continued Beyond the formal, top-down
Risk Management: WHO Interim role of the WHO as global directing initiatives to deal with pandemics,
Guidance 278 and coordinating authority. there are openings for bottom-up,
– Policy innovative ideas. Epihack attempted
to generate just such ideas, through
This is an updated document 24-Jul-13: Bacteria become three days of designing and hacking
that replaces the 2009 Pandemic resistant to some of the last in Cambodia. Descriptions of the
Influenza Preparedness and remaining antibiotics 285 winning projects were given:
Response: a WHO guidance – Event
document.279 It updates its – CoPanFlu: This project included
recommendations based on lessons Bacterial infections, such as the Black home visits to collect blood
from the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 Death, 286 syphilis, 287 and tuberculosis, samples from 807 homes and
pandemic (swine flu),280 the adoption 288 have been responsible for millions weekly follow-up phone calls
by the Sixty-fourth World Health of deaths, over the thousands of years to document the occurrence of
Assembly of the Pandemic Influenza they have co-existed with humanity. infectious respiratory symptoms.
Preparedness Framework281 (for Though these diseases have not These visits and phone calls
the sharing of influenza viruses been eradicated – overall, a third of caused disturbance to the
and access to vaccines and other the world is currently infected with the participants. The new system uses
benefits), and the States Parties’ tuberculosis bacillus289 – they have SMS for users to report symptoms.
obligations on capacity strengthening been controlled since the introduction Chart and map visualisation of
contained in the International Health of antibiotics, and prognostics have the data (with full case details)
Regulations of 2005.282 improved tremendously. But recently and a fieldwork tracking tool were
a rising number of bacteria have developed to help the research
Of significance was the Report developed antibiotic resistance, due team analyse and monitor data.
of the Review Committee on the mainly to antibiotic over-prescription290
Functioning of the International and use in livestock feed.291 This – DoctorMe: In addition to all of the
Health Regulations (2005) on the Nature report highlights the worrying popular features of DoctorMe (free
A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic,283 which way in which Enterobacteriaceae health information for the general
concluded: “We were lucky this time, (bacteria with a 50% mortality public), the tool now features a
but as the report concludes, the world rate) have become resistant to weekly survey for users. The survey
is ill-prepared to respond to a severe carbapenems, one of the last will ask participants to select
influenza pandemic or to any similarly remaining antibiotics that had been whether they are experiencing any
global, sustained and threatening effective against them. symptoms from a list.
public-health emergency.” This is
reinforced by the fact that the 2009
pandemic is alleged to have infected
24% of the population.284
The main lesson the WHO drew from

that epidemic was that member states
generally had communication issues
(between ministries of health and
decision,makers, and with the public),
and were prepared for a pandemic of
high severity and appeared unable to
adapt their national and subnational
responses adequately to a more
moderate event.
3.1 Current risks
– ILI Surveillance, Bureau of 22-Sep-13: Research hints at This report uses an agent-based model
Epidemiology Thailand: The old possibility for universal flu vaccine 293 to analyse whether the accidental
system was web-based and had – Research laboratory release of pandemic flu
no visual element. The new mobile viruses could be contained, and
application and website provides a The Spanish flu outbreak was the concludes that controllability of escape
map visualisation for the reported deadliest short pandemic in history, events is not guaranteed.
cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) in infecting about a third of the world
Thailand. The map shows hospital population (≈ 500 million people)
ILI cases with colour-coded pins to and killing 50-100 million people.294 3-Dec-13: Global pandemic tops poll
indicate the level of ILI and allows There have been numerous flu of insurance industry risks 306
for simple analysis of the situation. pandemics in the last few centuries, – Initiative
with three others having around a
– Mae Tao Clinic: The electronic million casualties (the 1889-1890 Academics and governmental307/
records for this healthcare clinic were Russian Flu,295 the 1957-1958 supra-governmental308 organisations
very basic. During EpiHack, the data Asian Flu, and the 1968-1969 have long worried about the risks of
was moved to the cloud and is now Hong Kong Flu296 outbreaks). The pandemics. But such organisations
open-source. A data visualisation most recent pandemic was that in attract certain types of people with
dashboard was created to allow for 2009, which killed 150,000-500,000 specific outlooks, who can be subject
map visualisation of diagnoses. The people.297 Thus any move towards to further biases because of their
staff at Mae Tao Clinic can now easily a universal flu vaccine would be profession and the social milieu
view and analyse the data to spot of great importance to combating surrounding it.309 Insurers come from
trends and send alerts. They plan to such recurring pandemics. This a different background, focusing on
pilot this programme at their clinic paper, analysing the role of T cells in practical profitability in the business
and, if successful, to replicate it with combating influenza, suggests a way world. It is therefore instructive that
other clinics. that such a vaccine could be feasible. they too see pandemics as among
the major threats in the world today.
– Verboice: The technology platform of This also implies that combating
Verboice is so user-friendly 28-Nov-13: Difficulties in containing pandemics is of use not only from
it doesn’t require technical the accidental laboratory escape of a humanitarian but also from an
developers to develop the systems. potential pandemic influenza viruses 298 economic standpoint.
At EpiHack, project managers were – Research
able to design and create systems
to address needs in their work Biosafety laboratories experiment
completely on their own. In just with some of the deadliest of the
eight hours, four project managers world’s pathogens, and occasionally
each completed their own voice- create new ones.299 Their number
based participatory surveillance is increasing globally, and their
systems to monitor One Health safety record is far from perfect,
in Kenya and Tanzania; early with several pathogen leaks
warning generation in South Sudan; reported300 and others suspected301
animal health in Laos; unexploded (the last smallpox fatality was due
ordnance in Laos; child trafficking to a virus that escaped a lab302,
in Cambodia. The project owners after eradication of the virus in the
of these new systems will now wild). The rate of pathogen escape
take them back to their countries has been estimated at 0.3% per
and develop implementation and laboratory, per year303 – a very high
sustainability plans. probability, given the 44 BSL-4304
labs and several thousands of BSL-3
labs. There have already been three
known escapes from BSL-4 labs
since 1990.305
3.1 Current risks
3.1 Current risks
3.1.5 Global
System Collapse
Global System Major Asteroid

Collapse Impact
Global system collapse is defined here as either

an economic or societal collapse on the global scale.
There is no precise definition of a system collapse.
Synthetic Unknown
The term has been used to describe a broad range
of bad economic conditions, ranging from a severe,
prolonged depression with high bankruptcy rates
and high unemployment, to a breakdown in normal
commerce caused by hyperinflation, or even an
economically-caused sharp increase in the death rate
and perhaps even a decline in population.
310
3.1 Current risks
Often economic collapse is This trend is likely to be intensified reasons.327 And institutional collapses
accompanied by social chaos, civil by continuing globalisation,320 while can create knock-on effects, such as
unrest and sometimes a breakdown of global governance and regulatory the descent of formerly prosperous
law and order. Societal collapse usually mechanisms seem inadequate to states to much more impoverished
refers to the fall or disintegration of address the issue.321 This is possibly and destabilising entities.328 Such
human societies, often along with their because the tension between processes could trigger damage on
life support systems. It broadly includes resilience and efficiency322 can even a large scale if they weaken global
both quite abrupt societal failures typified exacerbate the problem.323 political and economic systems to such
by collapses, and more extended an extent that secondary effects (such
gradual declines of superpowers. Here Many triggers could start such a failure as conflict or starvation) could cause
only the former is included. cascade, such as the infrastructure great death and suffering.
damage wrought by a coronal mass
3.1.5.1 Expected impact ejection,324 an ongoing cyber conflict, 3.1.5.2 Probability
or a milder form of some of the risks
presented in the rest of the paper.
disaggregation
The world economic and political Indeed the main risk factor with global
system is made up of many actors systems collapse is as something Five important factors in estimating
with many objectives and many which may exacerbate some of the probabilities of various impacts:
links between them. Such intricate, the other risks in this paper, or as a
interconnected systems are subject trigger. But a simple global systems 1. Whether global system collapse
to unexpected system-wide failures collapse still poses risks on its own. will trigger subsequent collapses
due to the structure of the network311 The productivity of modern societies or fragility in other areas.
– even if each component of the is largely dependent on the careful 2. What the true trade-off is
network is reliable. This gives rise to matching of different types of capital325 between efficiency and resilience.
systemic risk: systemic risk occurs (social, technological, natural...) 3. Whether effective regulation and
when parts that individually may with each other. If this matching is resilience can be developed.
function well become vulnerable disrupted, this could trigger a “social 4. Whether an external disruption
when connected as a system to a collapse” far out of proportion to will trigger a collapse.
self-reinforcing joint risk that can the initial disruption.326 States and 5. Whether an internal event will
spread from part to part (contagion), institutions have collapsed in the past trigger a collapse.
potentially affecting the entire system for seemingly minor systemic
and possibly spilling over to related
outside systems.312 Such effects
have been observed in such diverse
areas as ecology,313 finance314 and
critical infrastructure315 (such as
power grids). They are characterised
by the possibility that a small internal
or external disruption could cause a
highly non-linear effect,316 including
a cascading failure that infects the
whole system,317 as in the 2008-2009
financial crisis.
The possibility of collapse becomes

more acute when several independent
networks depend on each other, as
is increasingly the case (water supply,
transport, fuel and power stations
are strongly coupled, for instance).318
This dependence links social and
technological systems as well.319
Example of an interconnected network: the Internet. Each line is drawn between two nodes, representing two
IP addresses. This is a small look at the backbone of the Internet.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_map_1024.jpg
3.1 Current risks
Deliberate
dictatorship
Deliberate
dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
Meta-uncertainty
freedom
on tradeoffs
freedom



ethical goals
ethical goals
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Post-disaster
politics
and economy
Post-disaster
politics
and economy

Extinction

Extinction
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.1 Current risks
1. Increased global coordination 8. The system collapse may lead to 18. The world’s political and legal
and cooperation may allow effective increased fragility in areas that it does systems are becoming more closely
regulatory responses, but it also not directly damage, making them integrated as well. Any risk has not
causes the integration of many vulnerable to subsequent shocks. been extensively researched yet, and
different aspects of today’s world, there remain strong obstacles (mainly
likely increasing systemic risk. 9. A collapse that spread to at the nation state level) slowing down
government institutions would this form of integration.
2. Systemic risk is only gradually undermine the possibilities of
becoming understood, and further combating the collapse. 19. The politics of the post-system
research is needed, especially collapse world will be important in
when it comes to actually reducing 10. A natural ecosystem collapse formulating an effective response
systemic risk. could be a cause or consequence of a instead of an indifferent or counter-
collapse in humanity’s institutions. productive one.
3. Since systemic risk is risk in the
entire system, rather than in any 11. Economic collapse is an obvious 20. System collapses can be triggered
individual component of it, only and visible way in which system internally by very small events, without
institutions with overall views and collapse could cause a lot of damage. an apparent cause.
effects can tackle it. But regulating
systemic risk is a new and 12. In order to cause mass casualties, 21. External disruptions can trigger the
uncertain task. a system collapse would need to collapse of an already fragile system.
cause major disruptions to the world’s
4. Building resilience – the ability of political and economic system. 22. The trade-off between efficiency
system components to survive shocks and resilience is a key source of
– should reduce systemic risk. 13. If the current world system fragility in a world economy built
collapses, there is a risk of casualties around maximising efficiency.
5. Fragile systems are often built through loss of trade, poverty, wars
because they are more efficient and increased fragility. 23. Climate change, mass
than robust systems, and hence movements of animals and
more profitable. 14. It is not obvious that the world’s agricultural mono-cultures are
institutions and systems can be put interlinking ecosystems with each
6. General mitigation efforts should together again after a collapse; they may other and with human institutions.
involve features that are disconnected be stuck in a suboptimal equilibrium.
from the standard system, and thus 24. There is a lot of uncertainty
should remain able to continue being 15. Power grids are often analysed about systemic risk, especially in
of use if the main system collapses as possible candidates for system the interactions between different
collapse, and they are becoming fragilities that would not be sufficient
7. A system collapse could spread more integrated. to cause a collapse on their own.
to other areas, infecting previously
untouched systems (as the sub- 16. The world’s financial systems
prime mortgage crisis affected the have already caused a system
world financial system, economy, and collapse, and they are still growing
ultimately its political system). more integrated.
17. The world’s economies are

also getting integrated, spreading
recessions across national boundaries.
3.1 Current risks
3.1.5.3 Main events It will bring together experts from 14-Mar-13: Systemic sovereign credit
finance, economics, computer risk has “deep roots in the flows and
during 2013 science, political science, law and the liquidity of financial markets.” 330
natural and mathematical sciences. – Research
16-Jan-13: Systemic Risk Centre This will allow researchers affiliated to
founded at the LSE 329 the Centre to investigate how risk is It is important to estimate the source
– Event created through feedback loops within of systemic risk. Different mitigation
and between the financial, economic, policies should be implemented
Effective interventions into systemic legal and political systems. Political if sovereign systemic risks spring
risks depend on high quality research, decisions, for example, can directly from financial markets rather than
which may be why the London affect people’s behaviour in the macroeconomic fundamentals. This
School of Economics (LSE) founded financial markets, which in turn affects paper argues that systemic sovereign
a £5 million research centre to study political decision-making and so on – risks spring from financial markets
systemic financial risk. A press with the outcomes being unexpected (through capital flows, funding
release said: and complex.” availability, risk premiums, and
liquidity shocks331) rather than from
“The Centre will undertake an Besides the research results produced fundamentals.332 It further estimates
economic analysis of the fundamental by the centre, its very existence shows that systemic risks are three times
risks to the financial system, based on that systemic risk is being taken larger in eurozone countries than in
an interdisciplinary approach. seriously in academic quarters. US states.
Figure 19: Network Diagram of connections between, banks, brokers/dealers, insurers and hedge funds. Jan 1994-Dec 1996
Source: https://app.box.com/shared/oesro8zzco0mtvuymh3f
3.1 Current risks
17-Jul-13 IMF launches “Systemic – Fundamentals-based models 335 rely The paper concludes, however, that
Risk Monitoring (“SysMo”) Toolkit—A on macroeconomic or balance sheet the systemic risk monitoring toolkit
User Guide” 333 data to help assess macro-financial is incomplete and that “tools exist
– Policy linkages (e.g., macro stress testing to assess most sectors and levels of
or network models). By providing aggregation, but they provide only
In order to mitigate or prevent vulnerability measures based on partial coverage of potential risks and
systemic risk, it needs to be actual interconnectedness and only tentative signals on the likelihood
monitored. In this paper, the exposures, these models may help and impact of systemic risk events. As
authors set out to clarify the nature build a realistic “story”. However, such, they may not provide sufficient
and use of the systemic risk they often require long-term data comfort to policymakers.”
monitoring tools that are currently series, assume that parameters
available, providing guidance on and relationships are stable under
how to select the best set of tools stressed conditions, and produce 23-Dec-13: Citigroup analysis reports
depending on the circumstances. only low-frequency risk estimates. reduced systemic political and
The paper breaks down the tools financial risks in 2013 and 2014 338
into four categories, each with their – Market-based models. 336 These – Initiative
strengths and weaknesses: models uncover information
about risks from high-frequency Tracking the ebb and flow of
– Single risk/soundness indicators. 334 market data and are thus suitable the likelihood of various risks is
Indicators based on balance sheet for tracking rapidly-changing important for estimating where best
data, such as financial soundness conditions of a firm or sector. to direct energy and resources. Even
indicators (FSIs), are widely These approaches are more approximate, order of magnitude
available and cover many risk dynamic, but their capacity to estimates are sufficient if they
dimensions. However, they tend to reliably predict financial stress has establish that some risks are much
be backward-looking and do not yet to be firmly established. more dangerous than others (order
account for probabilities of default of magnitude estimates correspond
or correlation structures. Moreover, – Hybrid, structural models. 337 These to the “Class 5 cost estimate”, 339
only some of these indicators models estimate the impact undertaken at the very beginning of
can be used as early-warning of shocks on key financial and the project, between 0% and 2% of
tools (e.g., indicators of funding real variables (e.g., default its completion). In 2013, Citigroup
structures). Market data can be probabilities, or credit growth) by analysts predicted that (with caveats)
used to construct complementary integrating balance sheet data and systemic risks would recede in
indicators for higher-frequency market prices. Examples include Europe during the year, a prediction
risk monitoring. the CCA and distance-to-default which seems to have been vindicated
measures, which compare the by events. As for the future, Tina
market value of an entity‘s assets Fordham, chief global political analyst
to its debt obligations. at Citigroup Global Markets, predicted
that “systemic political risks will
decline in 2014, but country-level and
geopolitical risks remain significant.”
It seems positive both that market
analysts are tracking systemic risks
and that they see them as decreasing
(though their focus is mainly on
political and financial systemic risks).
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2.1 Major
Asteroid Impact
Major Asteroid
Impact
When large objects strike terrestrial planets

like the Earth, there can be significant physical
and biospheric consequences, though
Unknown
atmospheres mitigate many surface impacts
Consequences
by slowing an object’s entry.
Impact structures are dominant landforms

on many of the solar system’s solid objects
and present the strongest empirical evidence
for their frequency and scale. 340
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2.1.1 Expected impact Should an impact occur, though, 3.2.1.2 Probability

asteroid impact risks are similar to
those of super-volcanoes, in that the
disaggregation
Asteroids have caused significant main destruction will not be wrought
extinction events throughout the by the initial impact, but by the clouds Five important factors in
Earth’s history. The most famous is the of dust projected into the upper estimating the probabilities and
Chicxulub impactor, which probably atmosphere. The damage from such impacts of the challenge:
helped cause the extinction of the an “impact winter” could affect the
non-avian dinosaurs and more than climate, damage the biosphere, affect 1. Whether detection and tracking of
75% of all species.341 Large asteroid food supplies, and create political asteroids and other dangerous
collisions – objects 5 km or more in instability. Though humanity currently space objects is sufficiently
size – happen approximately once produces enough food to feed all exhaustive.
every twenty million years and would humans,352 this supply is distributed 2. How feasible it is to deflect
have an energy a hundred thousand extremely unevenly, and starvation still an asteroid.
times greater342 than the largest bomb exists. Therefore a disruption that is 3. Whether measures such as
ever detonated.343 A land impact small in an absolute sense could still evacuation could reduce the
would destroy an area the size of a cause mass starvation in the future. damage of an impact.
nation like Holland.344 Larger asteroids Mass starvation, mass migration, 4. The short- and long-term climate
could be extinction level events. political instability and wars could consequences of a collision.
be triggered, possibly leading to a 5. Whether our current civilisation
Asteroid impacts are probably one civilisation collapse. Unless the impact could adapt to a post-impact world.
of the best understood of all risks is at the extreme end of the damage
in this report. Their mechanisms scale and makes the planet unviable,
and frequencies are reasonably well human extinction is possible only as
estimated.345 Recent ground- and a consequence of civilisation collapse
space-based346 tracking projects and subsequent shocks.353
have been cataloguing and tracking
the largest asteroids,347 and have
discovered that the risks were lower
than was previously feared.348 The
projects are now cataloguing asteroids
of smaller size and damage potential.
There has been some speculation

about possible methods for deflecting
asteroids350, should they be found on a
collision course with the planet. Such
means remain speculative, currently,
but may become more feasible given
technological progress and potentially
more affordable access to space.351
Figure 20: How the Spaceguard Survey has reduced the short-term risk of impacts from near-Earth objects349
MAJOR ASTEROID IMPACT
3.2 Exogenic risks
Meta-uncertainty of
Private space Easier access anthropic effects
programs to space upon the true
risk probability
National space
programs Deliberate
dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty Making the risk Asteroid deflection

on tradeoffs a priority technologies
freedom
Small asteroid Asteroid dection Asteroid impact

impacts and tracking

important problems global governance
Disruption to things worse
Global Preemptive Long-term
coordination evacuation world politics Climate impacts
and economy climate impact
Post-impact
politics
ethical goals
Direct destruction Civilisation Extinction Total short-term

collapse casuaities
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)

Post-disaster General mitigation
politics efforts
and economy

Extinction
Key
Key Current
Current
3.2 Exogenic risks
1. Competition between private 6. General mitigation efforts may 12. There are currently no asteroid
space programmes could be a help reduce the direct and indirect deflection abilities, but there are
determining factor in reducing the negative outcomes of an impact by, many plans that could conceivably be
cost of space flight. for instance, equipping people to deal implemented in due course.
with the changed climate.
2. National space programmes have 13. Small asteroid impacts could motivate
always provided the impetus for space 7. Unlike many risks, there is no upper increased anti-asteroid precautions.
flight projects, especially the more bound on how destructive an asteroid
speculative and cutting-edge ones. impact could be, though the largest 14. With enough warning, it could be
impacts are the rarest. possible to preemptively evacuate the
3. Protecting against asteroid impacts impact area.
is already accepted as a project worth 8. The aftermath of an impact could
funding, but increased focus on the greatly disrupt the world economic 15. Post-impact politics will be
problem could increase the ability to and political system. important for reconstruction,
predict and prevent such impacts. adapting to the changed climate, and
9. Climate changes would be the most prevention of further harm.
4. Asteroid detection and tracking destructive consequences of medium-
continues to progress well currently, scale meteor impacts, with the world 16. Estimating the likelihood of
and is key to preventing such plunged into an “impact winter”. asteroid impacts suffers from
collisions in future. “anthropic shadow” effects: 355 we
10. The effects of an impact winter may be underestimating the danger
5. Better global coordination is not could last for a long time. because if there had been many more
strongly needed to track or deflect impacts in recent times, humans
asteroids, but would be important if a 11. Easier access to space would be would not currently be around to
large-scale evacuation was needed. important for any plans to actually observe their effects and take them
deflect an asteroid. into account.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chelyabinsk_meteor_trace_15-02-2013.jpg
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2.1.3 Main events 17-Oct-13: The probability for 14-Nov-13: Risk of medium asteroid
“Asteroid 2013 TV135” to impact strike may be ten times larger than
during 2013 Earth in 2032 is one in 63,000 363 previously thought 367
– Event – Research
15-Feb-13: Chelyabinsk meteor
causes large fireball 356 NASA reports that a 400-metre This paper analyses in detail the
– Event asteroid has one chance in 63,000 Chelyabinsk impact, estimated to have
of impacting the Earth. An asteroid had an energy of 500 kilotonnes of
The Chelyabinsk meteor was a this size would produce ocean- TNT. It demonstrates problems with
near-Earth asteroid that entered wide tsunamis or destroy land areas the standard methods for estimating
Earth’s atmosphere over Russia, with the size of a small state (Delaware, the energy of collisions – derived from
an estimated speed of 18.6 km/s, Estonia).364 For comparison, the odds nuclear weapons results 368 – and
almost 60 times the speed of sound. of dying from lightning strike are 1 from that deduces that the number of
It exploded into a very visible air burst in 83,930, of a snake, bee or other impactors with diameters of tens of
over Chelyabinsk Oblast, which was venomous bite or sting is 1 in 100,000, metres may be an order of magnitude
recorded by numerous video sources. of an earthquake 1 in 131,890, and of higher than estimated. It argues that this
The meteor was undetected before it a dog attack 1 in 147,717.365 So the demonstrates a deviation from a simple
entered the Earth’s atmosphere, and risk of asteroid death, though low, is power law, and thus that there is a non-
caused numerous injuries, extensive comparable to more common risks. equilibrium in the near-Earth asteroid
damage, but no deaths. It was the population for objects 10 to 50 metres
largest to crash to Earth since 1908, 28-Oct-13: United Nations to Adopt in diameter. This shifts more of the
357 when an object hit Tunguska in Asteroid Defence Plan 366 impact risk to asteroids of these sizes.
Siberia.358 The meteor seemed ideal – Policy
from the risk reduction perspective: 3-Dec-13: SpaceX launches into
a large, visible impact that attracted The UN plans to set up an geostationary orbit 369
great attention, and a renewed International Asteroid Warning – Initiative
commitment to asteroid precautions, 359 Group for member nations to
but no actual fatalities. share information about potentially Easy access to space is important for all
hazardous space rocks. If asteroid deflection proposals.370 Since
19-Jun-13: Space Research astronomers detect an asteroid that America retired the Space Shuttle, 371
Institute of Russian Academy of poses a threat to Earth, the UN’s it has been putting its hope in private
Science presents a strategy to Committee on the Peaceful Uses of space companies.372 The success
use small asteroids to deflect Outer Space will help coordinate a of SpaceX opens the possibility of
hazardous objects from the mission to launch a spacecraft to slam eventual cheaper access to space.
trajectory of collision with Earth 360 into the object and deflect it from its
– Research collision course.
Though the analysis and tracking of This marks the first time an
asteroids has progressed rapidly, 361 international body has assigned
methods for deflecting a dangerous responsibility for tracking and
asteroid, should it be detected, remain intercepting dangerous asteroids.
speculative.362 The Space Research
Institute of the Russian Academy of
Science introduces another approach:
selecting small (10-15m) near-Earth
asteroids and causing them to strike
a larger dangerous one, altering its
trajectory. The more suggestions and
ideas there are for such deflections,
the more likely it is that one of them
will yield an implementable approach.
3.2 Exogenic risks
NEO Yield Crater Average Consequences

diameter Megatonnes diameter interval b/w
(MT*) (km) impact (years)
<10 Upper atmosphere detonation of “stones” (stony

asteroids) and comets; only “irons” (iron asteroids)
<3% penetrate to surface.
75m 10 to 100 1.5 1,000 Irons make craters (Barringer Crater); Stones produce
air-bursts (Tunguska). Land impacts could destroy
areas the size of a city (Washington, London, Moscow).
160m 100 to 1,000 3 4,000 Irons and stones produce ground-bursts; comets
produce air-bursts. Ocean impacts produce signifi-
cant tsunamis. Land impacts destroy areas the size
of a large urban area (New York, Tokyo).
350m 1,000 6 16,000 Impacts on land produce craters; ocean-wide tsunamis

to are produced by ocean impacts. Land impacts destroy
10,000 areas the size of a small state (Delaware, Estonia).
700m 10,000 12 63,000 Tsunamis reach hemispheric scales, exceed damage

to from land impacts. Land impacts destroy areas the
100,000 size of a moderate state (Virginia, Taiwan).
1.7km 100,000 30 250,000 Both land and ocean impacts raise enough dust to
to affect climate, freeze crops. Ocean impacts generate
1 million global scale tsunamis. Global destruction of ozone.
Land impacts destroy areas the size of a large state
(California, France, Japan). A 30 kilometre crater pen-
etrates through all but the deepest ocean depths.
3km 1 million 60 1 million Both land and ocean impacts raise dust, change
to climate. Impact ejecta are global, triggering wide-
10 million spread fires. Land impacts destroy areas the size of
a large nation (Mexico, India).
7km 10 million 125 10 million Prolonged climate effects, global conflagration,

to probable mass extinction. Direct destruction ap-
100 million proaches continental scale (Australia, Europe, Usa).
16km 100 million 250 100 million Large mass extinction (for example K/T or Creta-
to ceous-Tertiary geological boundary).
1 billion
>1 billion Threatens survival of all advanced life forms.
Figure 15: Impact effects by size of Near Earth Object354
Pandemic Collapse Impac
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2.2 Super-volcano
Super-volcano Synthetic Unkno

Biology Conse
A super-volcano is any volcano capable

of producing an eruption with an ejecta volume
greater than 1,000 km3. This is thousands of times
larger than normal eruptions.
Super-volcanoes can occur when magma in the

mantle rises into the crust from a hotspot but is
unable to break through it, so that pressure builds
in a large and growing magma pool until the crust
is unable to contain the pressure. 373
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2.2.1 Expected impact The extent of the impact would Unless the eruption is at the extreme end
thus depend on the severity of the of the damage scale and makes the planet
eruption - which might or might not be unviable, human extinction is possible only
The eruption which formed the foreseen, depending on improvements as a consequence of civilisation collapse
Siberian Traps was one of the largest in volcanic predictions384 - and the and subsequent shocks.387
in history. It was immediately followed subsequent policy response. Another
by the most severe wave of extinction Siberian Trap-like eruption is extremely Prof. Michael Rampino, New York
in the planet’s history, 374 the Permian– unlikely on human timescales, but the University, has estimated that a large
Triassic extinction event, 375 where damage from even a smaller eruption (1,000 cubic kilometres of magma)
96% of all marine species and 70% of could affect the climate, damage the super-eruption would have global
terrestrial vertebrate species died out. biosphere, affect food supplies and effects comparable to an object 1.5km
Recent research has provided evidence create political instability. in diameter striking the Earth.388
of a causal link: that the eruption
caused the mass extinction.376 There A report by a Geological Society 3.2.2.2 Probability
have been many other super-volcanic of London working group notes:
eruptions throughout history.377 The “Although at present there is no
disaggregation
return period for the largest super- technical ﬁx for averting super-
volcanoes (those with a Volcanic eruptions, improved monitoring, Five important factors in
Explosivity Index378 of 8 or above) has awareness-raising and research-based estimating the probabilities and
been estimated from 30,000 years379 planning would reduce the suffering of impacts of the challenge:
at the low end, to 45,000 or even many millions of people.” 385
700,000 years380 at the high end. 1. Whether countries will coordinate
Though humanity currently produces globally against super-volcano risk
Many aspects of super-volcanic activity enough food to feed everyone,386 and damage.
are not well understood as there have this supply is distributed extremely 2. The predictability of super-
been no historical precedents, and unevenly, and starvation still exists. volcanic eruptions.
such eruptions must be reconstructed Therefore a disruption that is small in 3. How directly destructive an
from their deposits.381 an absolute sense could still cause eruption would be.
mass starvation. Mass starvation, mass 4. The effectiveness of general
The danger from super-volcanoes migration, political instability and wars mitigation efforts.
is the amount of aerosols and dust could be triggered, possibly leading to 5. How severe the long-term
projected into the upper atmosphere. a civilisation collapse. climate effects would be.
This dust would absorb the Sun’s rays
and cause a global volcanic winter.
The Mt Pinatubo eruption of 1991
caused an average global cooling of
surface temperatures by 0.5°C over
three years, while the Toba eruption
around 70,000 years ago is thought
by some to have cooled global
temperatures for over two centuries.382
The effect of these eruptions could be
best compared with that of a nuclear
war. The eruption would be more
violent than the nuclear explosions,383
but would be less likely to ignite
firestorms and other secondary
effects. Unlike nuclear weapons,
a super-volcano would not be
targeted, leaving most of the world’s
infrastructure intact.
Satellite image of Lake Toba

Source: NASA, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Toba_overview.jpg
3.2 Exogenic risks
SUPER VOLCANO
Medium Making the risk
volcanic eruptions a priority
Predictability Supervolcano
of eruptions research Deliberate
dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
Better monitoring ofSupervolcano
governance
poverty, survival, and prediction eruption
freedom
Preemptive Global Direct destruction Climate impacts Long-term

evacuation coordination climate impact

Disruption to
world politics
and economy

Enduring poverty important Climate change Meta-uncertainty
flourishing
Post-eruption pollution
ethical goals of anthropic effects
politics upon the true
risk probability
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Civilisation
Disruption to General Total short-term
Collapse of Post-disaster Long-term Extinction
world collapse
politics mitigation
world system efforts
casualties
negative effects
politics
and economy

Extinction
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.2 Exogenic risks
1. Whether super-volcano risk is made 6. A super-volcano’s main 10. Better volcano monitoring
a priority will have a large impact on destructive impact is through its and prediction (if possible) will
research and volcano monitoring. effect on the climate, akin to a allow such interventions as pre-
nuclear winter cooling effect. This emptive evacuations.
2. Further super-volcano research will will strongly affect all impact levels,
be important in any mitigation and and the disruption to the world’s 11. Evacuations are likely to be the
monitoring efforts. political and economic system. only effective response to an imminent
eruption, as super-volcanoes are
3. Global coordination and 7. The level of this disruption will unlikely to be controllable or divertible.
cooperation between nations will determine how well countries cope
determine research levels, the with the aftermath of the eruption and 12. Post-eruption politics will be a
chances of evacuations, and post- subsequent climate changes, and consequence of the number of short-
eruption disruption to the world whether subsequent conflicts or trade term casualties, and the disruption to
political and economic system. wars will occur, adding to the damage. the world system.
4. General mitigation efforts may help 8. The long-term climate impact will 13. Medium scale volcanic eruptions
reduce the direct and indirect negative determine in what state the post- may persuade leaders to make the
impact of an eruption, by, for instance, eruption world will find itself, relevant risk more of a priority.
equipping people to deal with the both for reconstruction after a collapse
changed climate. and for preventing such a collapse. 14. Estimating the likelihood of
super-volcanic eruptions suffers from
5. The direct destructive effect 9. Whether eruptions are “anthropic shadow” effects: 390 we
of a super-volcano can be fundamentally predictable or may be underestimating the danger
extensive, especially in the area not, and how far in advance, because if there had been many more
around the eruption. will be very important for many eruptions in recent times, humans
mitigation strategies. would not currently be around to
observe their effects and take them
into account.
VEI Ejecta volume Classification Description Plume Frequency
0 < 10,000 m3 Hawaiian Effusive < 100 m constant
1 > 10,000 m3 Hawaiian / Strombolian Gentle 100-1000 m daily
2 > 1,000,000 m3 Strombolian / Vulcanian Explosive 1-5 km weekly
3 > 10,000,000 m3 Vulcanian / Peléan Catastrophic 3-15 km few months
4 > 0.1 km3 Peléan / Plinian Cataclysmic 10-25 km ≥ 1 yr
5 > 1 km3 Plinian Paroxysmic 20-35 km ≥ 10 yrs
6 > 10 km3 Plinian / Ultra-Plinian Colossal > 30 km ≥ 100 yrs
7 > 100 km3 Ultra-Plinian Mega-colossal > 40 km ≥ 1,000 yrs
8 > 1,000 km3 Supervolcanic Apocalyptic > 50 km ≥ 10,000 yrs
Figure 21: Volcanic Explosivity Index 389
3.2 Exogenic risks
3.2.2.3 Main events They put the risk of super-volcanic This is due to the normalcy bias,
eruptions in the context of standard “the tendency to minimise the
during 2013 volcanic eruptions, just on a larger probability of potential threats or
scale (noting that super-volcanic their dangerous implications,”. 396
15-Mar-13: Climate impact of eruptions have affected Japan in
super-volcanoes may be less than the past). Japan has been a very
previously thought 391 seismically active country for its entire 27-Oct-13: Yellowstone super-
– Research history,394 so it might be hoped that volcano larger than previously
adequate volcanic mitigation measures thought 397
The Toba eruption around 70,000 would have been implemented. – Research
years ago was one of the world’s
largest super-volcanic eruptions. In But the report notes that “remarkably Another continuing development in
contrast with some theories that claim few [of Japan’s local governments] the science of super-volcanoes, this
it caused a volcanic winter that may have drafted volcanic disaster paper demonstrates that the crustal
have lasted over two centuries, 392 countermeasure[s]”, 395 adding that magma reservoir under Yellowstone
this paper claims that analysis of ash “Local governments that have actually was 50% larger than was previously
from the Toba super-eruption in Lake experienced a volcanic disaster focus thought. However, despite this
Malawi shows no evidence of volcanic attention on volcanic disaster-related increase, integrated probabilistic
winter in East Africa. This further discussion, but most have not drafted hazard assessment shows that the
illustrates the difficulty of establishing specific procedures for volcanic biggest Yellowstone Plateau threat
the exact impact of large-scale disasters and seem to think that the is from large M7+ earthquakes -
disasters when the evidence record is general disaster countermeasure significantly damaging398, but very
poor. volume is adequate.” This provokes unlikely to threaten billions - not from
some pessimism about the likelihood volcanic or super-volcanic eruptions.
of effective planetary super-volcano
17-Jul-13: The Volcanological mitigation measures being implemented,
Society of Japan looks at volcano especially in those areas with no
and super-volcano mitigation 393 direct experience of volcanic risk.
– Policy
Prevention of super-volcano eruptions

is impossible with current technology, Figure 22: Location of Yellowstone hotspot over time (numbers indicate millions of years before the present).
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HotspotsSRP.jpg
but there may be some possibility
of mitigating their effects. The
Volcanological Society of Japan is
one of the few organisations that have
looked at such potential mitigation.
3.2 Exogenic risks
15-Nov-13: Insurance executives 20-Dec-13: Super-volcano confirmed

rank super-volcanoes low on the list as responsible for one of the largest
of extreme risks 399 extinctions in history 401
– Initiative – Research
Academics have long worried about The maximal destructive potential

the probability of super-volcanic of super-volcanoes is uncertain.
eruptions. But academia attracts There have been large super-
certain types of people with specific volcanic eruptions throughout
outlooks, who can be subject to history, 402 and many extinction
further biases because of their events, but uncertainties in the
profession and the social milieu geological record mean that it was
surrounding it.400 Insurers come from hard to establish whether they
a different background, focusing on were causally linked. One eloquent
practical profitability in the business example was the eruption which
world and using a relatively short formed the Siberian Traps403 (one
time horizon. So it is instructive that of the largest in history), and the
they do not see super-volcanoes as Permian–Triassic extinction, 404
a major threat in the world today: “Of where 96% of all marine species
interest to us is the very low ranking and 70% of terrestrial vertebrates
of the user-submitted idea of super- died out. The two events were
volcanoes in the US”. close on the geological timeline,
and this paper, using recent dating
techniques, confirmed that the
super-volcano erupted shortly
before the extinction, making it
the likely culprit. The risk of large
impacts from super-volcanoes has
thus gained in plausibility.
Collapse Impact
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.1 Synthetic
Biology
Synthetic Unknown
Synthetic biology is the design and construction

of biological devices and systems for useful
purposes. It is an area of biological research
and technology that combines biology and
engineering, and so often overlaps with
bioengineering and biomedical engineering.
It encompasses a variety of different approaches,

methodologies, and disciplines with a focus
on engineering biology and biotechnology. 405
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.1.1 Expected impact This could emerge through military Extinction risk is unlikely, 423 but
bio-warfare, 415 commercial bio-warfare, possible if the aftermath of the
416 bio-terrorism417 (possibly using epidemic fragments and diminishes
Pandemics are one of the dual-use products418 developed by human society to the extent that
worst killers in human history. legitimate researchers, and currently recovery becomes impossible424 before
Synthetic biology is the design unprotected by international legal humanity succumbs to other risks.425
and construction of biological regimes419), or dangerous pathogens
devices and systems to leaked from a lab420. Of relevance is
accomplish the specific goal of whether synthetic biology products 3.3.1.2 Probability
the synthetic biologist,406 adding become integrated into the global
disaggregation
human intentionality to traditional economy or biosphere. This could
pandemic risks. lead to additional vulnerabilities (a
benign but widespread synthetic Five important factors in
The positive and negative potentials biology product could be specifically estimating the probabilities and
of synthetic biology are unclear407 targeted as an entry point through impacts of the challenge:
– much of the information currently which to cause damage). But such a
comes from synthetic biologists, 408 development would lead to greater 1. The true destructive potential
who may not be able to provide an industry and academic research, of synthetic biology, especially
impartial overview (the problem is which could allow the creation of the tail risk.
exacerbated by the decentralised reactive or pre-emptive cures.421 2. Whether the field will be
nature of the field409). Attempts at successfully regulated, or
regulation410 or self-regulation411 are The impact is very similar to that of successfully manage to
currently in their infancy, and may not pandemics: mass casualties and regulate itself.
develop as fast as research does.412 subsequent economic and political 3. Whether the field will usher in a
instabilities leading to possible new era of bio-warfare.
One of the most damaging impacts civilisation collapse. A bio-war would 4. Whether the tools of synthetic
from synthetic biology would come contribute greatly to the resulting biology can be used defensively to
from an engineered pathogen,413 instability. Even for the most perfectly create effective counter measures.
targeting humans or a crucial engineered pathogen, survivors are 5. The dangers of relying on
component of the ecosystem (such likely, if only in isolated or mainly synthetic biologists to estimate the
as rice, which accounts for 20% of all isolated locations.422 danger of synthetic biology.
calories consumed by humans).414
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
3.3 Emerging risks
Global Knowledge
coordination Military research control Smart sensors
Deliberate
dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty
Effective regulatory Continuing Knowledge Dual use of reying on
framework synthetic biology leak research synthetic biologists
research for risk estimates
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
freedom
Commercially Meta-uncertainty
Small Pathogen targeted damaging of true potential
security scares research Bio-terrorism
synthetic biology of synthetic biology

Engineered
Long-term ecosystem-
Bio-warfare
ecosystem impact affecting pathogen

Enduring poverty important
Prevalence of Climate change Engineered
pollution flourishing
syntheticethical goals
biology New human-affecting Accidental
products vulnerabilities pathogen release
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Pathogen Disruption to
Agriculture Post-pathogen Direct world politics
Extinction impact politics transmission casualties
chains and economy

Post-disaster
politics
and economy
Pre-release
Civilsation medical Total short-term
collapse contingency casualties
plans

Extinction
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.3 Emerging risks
1. Global coordination and 10. Bio-terrorism has the potential 20. It may be possible to control direct
cooperation will be important to to be the most destructive form of pathogen research through regulations
preventing biowarfare and creating an terrorism of all, with a small group – certainly more so than dual use
effective regulatory framework. causing billions of casualties. products. This kind of research is the
most likely to lead to bio-weapons, or
2. Military research in synthetic biology 11. The various products produced by to accidental release.
would be a direct risk for creating synthetic biology research could be
dangerous bio-weapons. deadly if accidentally released. 21. If synthetic biology products
are prevalent, this may introduce
3. Effective and intelligent regulatory 12. It is hard to estimate ahead of new vulnerabilities.
frameworks are the great challenge for time, but the direct casualties of an
controlling synthetic biology risks. The engineered pathogen could potentially 22. Post-pathogen politics will be
field is currently self-regulated, and it include everyone infected, which important for preventing civilisation
isn’t clear whether this is sufficient. could include almost everyone alive. collapses, and regulating further
synthetic biology experiments
4. Synthetic biology is novel enough 13. The most devastating pathogen and developments.
for some parts of the field potentially affecting the ecosystem would be one
to be shut down if they are seen to be targeting food production in one form 23. The pathogen transmission
too dangerous: continuing synthetic or another. chains are important in determining
biology research is not a given. the transmissibility of the pathogens
14. The widespread use of synthetic in the human population, and
5. Of all technological fields, synthetic biology products could introduce new whether quarantine or similar
biology could be one requiring vulnerabilities, if these products are methods will be effective.
knowledge control: where dangerous specifically targeted.
knowledge (such as how to synthesise 24. Synthetic biology research
certain pathogens) is kept out of the 15. Human- or ecosystem-targeting may enable the construction of
public domain. Other dangerous pathogens on a large scale could effective preventative measures or
technologies (e.g. nuclear weapons) disrupt the world’s political and countermeasures to an outbreak
require a large project or rare economic system, especially if one (both for a designed pathogen and a
materials, and could be regulated at party is blamed for their release. natural one).
that level instead.
16. Natural pathogens are unlikely to 25. The pathogen transmission chains
6. Mass surveillance and smart have a long-term devastating effect, are important in determining the
sensors may be needed to ensure but human-designed ones could transmissibility of the pathogens in the
dangerous synthetic biology projects – or they could be upgraded and ecosystem, and the effectiveness of
are not carried out. changed regularly. various countermeasures.
7. Most of the pre-release mitigation 17. Small security scares could 26. Of all risks, those of synthetic
efforts are similar to those for fighting provide impetus to the development biology are the most uncertain: they
a conventional pandemic. of effective regulations. could turn out to be very high, or very
low; it is currently not known.
8. Biowarfare is one major scenario 18. Knowledge leaks (such as
in which synthesised biological genomes published online) could 27. Active synthetic biologists are
agents are targeted at humans or at enable bioterrorism if the cost of the major source of information on
the ecosystem. producing pathogens is low. synthetic biology risks, which calls
the impartiality of their estimates
9. Commercial enterprises, especially 19. Much legitimate synthetic biology into question.
those exploiting natural resources, research could have dual use for
may be tempted to target their rival’s terrorists or as weapons.
products with pathogens that may get
out of control.
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.1.3 Main events 23-Jan-13: Work resumes on lethal 28-Feb-13: WHO report: Many
flu strains 430 countries and institutions lack
during 2013 – Event oversight of “dual use” biological
research, and there is a lack of global
15-Jan-13: Improved bio-safety in In 2011, scientists working in frameworks on the issue 436
iGEM synthetic biology competition 426 avian flu research performed two – Policy
– Initiative experiments431 showing how the flu
virus could be made transmissible to Dual use biological research
A significant part of synthetic ferrets (and, by extension, humans). concerns life sciences research
biology is developed by “bio- This generated protests and calls for intended for benefit, but with results
hackers“, 427 small-scale operations the papers to remain fully or partially which might easily be misapplied
with a hobbyist or competitive unpublished, 432 because of the to produce harm when used by
hacker ethos. This ethos would be potential for misuse by bio-terrorists bio-terrorists or in bio-weapon
more attracted to self-regulation428 or bio-weapons programmes. In research. Examples of these included
rather than outside governmental response, researchers in the field the experiments making avian ‘flu
regulation. But industry self- declared a voluntary moratorium in transmissible to humans.437 But there
regulations often fail in their January 2012.433 A year later, they were other examples too, including: 438
goals (especially without explicit decided to lift the moratorium.
sanctions for malfeasance),429 so it – Accidentally increasing the virulence
is currently unclear whether it can One cannot expect workers in a of mousepox as part of an
be relied upon to reduce risk. The field to be unbiased about their experiment to control mice as
International Genetically Engineered own research, 434 so it is significant pests in Australia.439
Machines (iGEM) competition is one that this decision was condemned – Variola virus immune
of the largest in synthetic biology, by many scientists, including other evasion design.440
and has attempted to promote virologists.435 This provides strong – Chemical synthesis of
bio-safety in its participants. It is evidence that ending the moratorium poliovirus cDNA.441
significant for the potential of self- was a dangerous decision. – Reconstruction of the 1918
regulation that such attempts have flu virus.442
been partially successful. – Creating and synthesising
a minimal organism.443
As life science techniques develop,

there is the potential for more such
potentially dual use research in future.
Yet, despite these dangers, the WHO
reports that many countries and
institutions lack oversight of such
research, and that there is a lack of
global frameworks on the issue.
3.3 Emerging risks
01-Jun-13: Scientists create hybrid

airborne H5N1 flu 444
– Research
The H in H5N1 stands for

“hemagglutinin”, as depicted in
this molecular model. Permission
is granted to copy, distribute and/
or modify this document under the
terms of the GNU Free Documentation
License, Version 1.2 or any later
version published by the Free
Software Foundation; with no Invariant
Sections, no Front-Cover Texts, and
no Back-Cover Texts. A copy of the
license is included in the section
entitled GNU Free Documentation
Research continues into gain of

function (GOF) for different influenza
viruses. This report detailed methods
for airborne mammal-to-mammal Hemagglutinin molecule
transmission of the H5N1 flu virus, Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
File:Hemagglutinin_molecule.png
when hybridised with a highly
transmissible (and human-infective)
H1N1 virus. There is a possibility
that such viruses (or those created
in similar GOF experiments) could
become transmissible to humans, and
potentially cause a pandemic if they
escaped from the lab.
A report from the Center for Arms

Control and Non-Proliferation445
applied likelihood-weighted-
consequence analysis to estimate
the probability and impact of such
escapes. It estimated that the risk
was considerable: even if a rapid
quarantine was instituted, each
lab-year of such research carried an
expected casualty rate of 180 to 1,100
fatalities, and $2.3 million to $390
million in economic damage.
Climate Change Global Governance Pande
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.2 Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-
Nanotechnology, here defined as atomically

446
precise manufacturing, is the creation of effective,

447
high-throughput manufacturing processes

that operate at the atomic or molecular level.
There are many suggested designs, 448
but there are no immediately available

methods to construct them. 449
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.2.1 Expected impact Some nanotechnology Extinction risk is only likely as

pathways could mitigate a long-term consequence of
these developments, however. civilisation collapse, if the survivors
It is currently unclear whether Cheap mass surveillance, 456 are unable to rebuild and succumb
nanotechnology would be a for instance, could catch such to other threats.464 The possibility
revolution in manufacturing, or merely re-armament efforts (though of nanomachines or nanoweapons
a continuation of current trends. surveillance could have its own remaining active after a civilisation
Industry represents 30% of world detrimental effects). Many of the collapse may make the rebuilding
GDP, 450 a declining fraction, so from world’s current problems may be more difficult, however, while the
a narrow economic perspective it solvable with the manufacturing availability of atomically precise
could be argued that the impact of possibilities that nanotechnology manufacturing systems, by contrast,
nanotechnology would be relatively would make possible, such as could aid rebuilding.
small. However, nanotechnology could depletion of natural resources,
create new products – such as smart pollution, climate change, clean 3.3.2.2 Probability
or extremely resilient materials451 – and water, and even poverty.457 There disaggregation
would allow many different groups are currently few applicable
or even individuals to manufacture a international legal regimes
wide range of things. governing nanotechnology.458
Five important factors in
This could lead to the easy In the media the label “grey estimating the probabilities and
construction of large arsenals of goo” 459 is sometimes applied to impacts of the challenge:
weapons by small groups.452 These nanotechnology. This is meant to
might be masses of conventional describe a hypothetical situation 1. The timeline for nanotech
weapons (such as drones or cruise where special self-replicating development.
missiles), or more novel weapons nanomachines would be engineered 2. Which aspects of nanotech
made possible by atomically precise to consume the entire environment. research will progress in what order.
manufacturing. If this is combined It is unclear how effective they could 3. Whether it will be possible
with a possible collapse in world trade be, and they play no role in atomically for small groups to assemble a
networks453 – since manufacturing precise manufacturing.460 Mass self- weapons arsenal in a short period
could now be entirely local – there replication would be detectable, and of time.
would be a likely increase in the vulnerable to human-directed counter- 4. Whether nanotech tools can be
number of conflicts throughout measures.461 However, it is possible effectively used defensively or for
the world. Of particular relevance that such replicating machines surveillance.
is whether nanotechnology allows could endure and thrive in particular 5. Whether nanotech tools
rapid uranium extraction and isotope ecological niches, where the cost or weaponry are made to be
separation454 and the construction of of removing them is too high.462 The independent of human control.
nuclear bombs, which would increase misuse of medical nanotechnology463
the severity of the consequent is another risk scenario.
conflicts. Unlike the strategic
stalemate of nuclear weapons,
nanotechnology arms races could
involve constantly evolving arsenals
and become very unstable.455 These
conflicts could lead to mass casualties
and potentially to civilisation collapse
if the world's political and social
systems were too damaged.
NANOTECHNOLOGY
3.3 Emerging risks
Meta-uncertainty: Effective Minor negative
nanotech revolution Military Continuing regulatory impacts of early
or evolution, speed nanotech research nanotech research framework nanotechnology
of implementation?
Deliberate
Meta-uncertainty Prevalence of
Global Technological attempts
Global povety Global Ultra-
instability nanotechnology Smart sensors Global to
of political coordination innovations construct world
manufacturing products coordination
predictions dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
Breakdown
New vulnerabilities of trade
freedom
International
relations

Nano-terrorism AI Nano-warfare
Loss of control
Not achieving over aggressive Global Lack of human
Enduring poverty important nanotechnology
Climate change pollution flourishing
ethical goals
Uncontrolled Post-nanotech Large-scale Undesirable

Long-term
nano-ecology politics nano-war world systemimpact
ecosystem
(e.g. global
dictatorship)

Post-disaster
politics
and economy
Damage to the Disruption to

Direct world’s ecosystem world politics Direct Effectiveness of
casualties and agriculture and economy casualties countermeasures
Civilsation Totalmitigation
General short- General Civilisation
Total short-term Extinction Extinction
casualtiescollapse effortterm casualties mitigation effort collapse
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.3 Emerging risks
1. An effective regulatory framework 9. The direct casualties of an 17. A nano-ecology becomes

could control the potential dangers uncontrolled nanotechnology are hard considerably more dangerous if
of nanotechnology, though this to estimate, as they depend critically there is an intelligence controlling it
depends very much on the nature of on the nature of the nanotechnology, (or pieces of it). Successful artificial
the problems and the design of the the countermeasures used, and the intelligence could allow this to happen.
regulations. Regulating the potentially general technological abilities of the
pollutant aspects of nanotechnology human race after nanotechnology 18. It is in its potential for extreme
– such as micro-particles – would development. The casualties from manufacturing that the promise and
be more feasible under traditional nanowarfare are similarly hard to perils of nanotechnology lie.
frameworks, but somewhat tangential determine, as it is unclear what would
to the main issues. be the most effective military use of 19. Nanoweapon proliferation could
nanoweapons, and whether this would completely destabilise international
2. Continuing research – into the involve high or low casualties (contrast relations and arms control treaties,
transformative aspects, not just mass nuclear weapons with targeted by allowing small groups to rapidly
standard materials science – is required shutdown of information networks). construct large arsenals.
for nanotechnology to become a viable
option for manufacturing. 10. Disruption of the world 20. One of the greatest threats of
political and economic system nanotechnology is the possibility
3. Military nanotechnology (exacerbated by the collapse of that it could result in a breakdown
research increases the chance that trade routes or nanowarfare) could of trade between currently
nanotechnology will be used for lead to further casualties. interdependent nations.
effective weapons production, and
may lead to an arms race. 11. A nano-ecology could disrupt and 21. International relations could break
undermine the standard biological down if trade does, leading to much
4. Global coordination allows for ecology, including food production. potential for conflict.
regulatory responses, and may
mitigate the effect of possible 12. The widespread use of 22. The effectiveness of
collapse of trade routes. nanotechnology could generate new countermeasures is extremely
vulnerabilities (just as modern cities are hard to judge, as is the balance
5. The general mitigation efforts of vulnerable to EMP (electro-magnetic between “defensive” and “offensive”
most relevance to nanotechnology are pulse) weapons that would have had nanoweaponry. Nanotechnology could
probably in surveillance and improved no effects in previous eras). allow novel approaches to controlling
international relations. the problem, such as extremely
13. Over the long term, a nano-ecology effective sensors.
6. Nanoterrorism is one way in could spread and develop in ways that
which humanity could lose control of are hard to predict or control (especially 23. Post-nanotech politics will
aggressive nanotechnology. if there are new vulnerabilities to it). determine the risk of collapse and the
potential for reconstruction.
7. Nanotechnology-empowered 14. Any problems with early
warfare could spiral out of control, nanotechnology could provide impetus 24. Much of the analysis of the impact
or could lead to the deployment for a regulatory or political response. of nanotechnology proceeds by
of uncontrolled aggressive analogy with previous discoveries
nanotechnology. The risk would be 15. The prevalence of or economic changes. It is unclear
acute if small groups were capable of nanotechnology products could whether evolution or revolution is the
effective nanowarfare on their own. introduce new vulnerabilities. better analogy, and what the speed of
implementation of nanotechnological
8. Uncontrolled aggressive 16. Smart sensors of all kinds would discoveries will be.
nanotechnology is a scenario in which be very important to either controlling
humanity unleashes weapons that it a nano-ecology or preventing small 25. The course of international politics
cannot subsequently bring under control, groups from rapidly constructing is extremely hard to predict, even for
which go on to have independent arsenals of weapons. political scientists.465
negative impacts on the world.
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.2.3 Main events 07-May-13: Publication of Eric range of products without requiring
Drexler’s book “Radical Abundance: large amounts of capital or long
during 2013 How a Revolution in Nanotechnology supply chains. The risks of social
Will Change Civilization” 473 and political disruption are then
11-Jan-13: Artificial molecular – Research examined. The disruptions that
assembly device created 466 can be anticipated include “falling
– Research Eric Drexler is one of the pioneers of demand for conventional labor,
nanotechnology, and introduced the resources, and capital in physical
A functional and practical design concepts to the general public with production, with the potential
for assembling molecules is an his book “Engines of Creation”.474 for cascading disruptive effects
essential feature for successful Twenty seven years later, he presents throughout the global economy”,
nanotechnology. There have been a history, progress report, and as well as disruptions in supply
many designs proposed, 467 and updated version of his vision, the chains, trade, dependence, and
some constructed, but not yet a central theme of which is to “imagine the revaluation of assets (mineral
fully functional molecular assembly a world where the gadgets and goods resources and large industrial
device.468 This design, based on that run our society are produced not facilities, for example, will lose much
principles from biology (it uses in far-flung supply chains of industrial of their value).
messenger RNA as its input code, facilities, but in compact, even
and synthesises peptides) represents desktop-scale, machines.” This would go together with an
another step towards that important goal. increase in surveillance capability
The revolution in manufacturing and a potential nanotechnology
would produce the “radical arms race. The book recommends
06-May-13: First weapon made with abundance” of the title, with small taking pre-emptive action at the
3D printer 469 groups and individuals capable of international level to prepare for
– Event producing an extraordinarily wide these disruptions.
It is the ability to make weapons en

masse that represents one of the
dangers of nanotechnology.470 3D
printing (or additive manufacturing)471
is not nanotechnology, but can be
considered a precursor, as it similarly
allows small groups to design and
manufacture their desired products
themselves. That one of the early
designs has been a functioning
weapon, and that such weapon
design was justified on moral
grounds,472 indicates a very high
probability that nanotechnology
will be used for weapon production.
3.3 Emerging risks
01-Jun-13: Nanostart AG: Venture 16-Dec-13: Nanotechnology: A Policy

Capital Investments in Nanotech 475 Primer, CRS report of Congress 478
– Initiative – Policy
A key sign of a developing technology Governmental and supra-

is interest from investment companies. governmental policies will be
Nanostart AG is an example of such a key to dealing with the dangers
company, with extensive investments and destabilising influences of
in various nanotechnology projects. nanotechnology, through regulation,
Interestingly, their interests are treaties, redistributive efforts or
not limited to more conventional simply through preparing their
nanotech projects, but extend to populations for the change.
such speculative endeavours as And institutions such as the US
space elevators.476 This serves as Congress are keeping an eye
a reminder of the potentially large on nanotechnology, in this case
profits available in nanotechnology. through the Congressional Research
Thus it seems likely that when the Service. This report, however,
technology matures sufficiently to does not delve into the major risks
cause increased risks, there will be of nanotechnology, but restricts
many commercial entities heavily itself to minor subjects such as
investing in the technology, which the safety of nanomaterials and
will make the process of regulation US competitiveness in that field.
more contentious, possibly leading War, trade disruption and potential
to “regulatory capture” 477 by development and misuse of nano-
these entities, with their interests replicators479 are not discussed.
represented rather than those of the This seems to reflect a certain lack
broader community. of prioritisation and perhaps even
a misplaced focus on the less
important risks.
The World's First 3D-Printed Gun

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/XP002.jpg/1279px-XP002.jpg
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.3 Artificial
Intelligence
Artificial Extreme Future

Intelligence Climate Change Global
Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclea

Catastrophe
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the
intelligence exhibited by machines
or software, and the branch of
computer science that develops
machines and software with
human-level intelligence.
3.3 Emerging risks
Major AI researchers and textbooks Such extreme intelligences could

define the field as “the study and not easily be controlled (either by the
design of intelligent agents”, where groups creating them, or by some
an intelligent agent is a system that international regulatory regime),485
perceives its environment and takes and would probably act in a way
actions that maximise its chances to boost their own intelligence and
of success.480 acquire maximal resources for
almost all initial AI motivations.486 And
if these motivations do not detail487
3.3.3.1 Expected impact the survival and value of humanity
in exhaustive detail, the intelligence
will be driven to construct a world
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the without humans or without meaningful
least understood global challenges. features of human existence.
There is considerable uncertainty on
what timescales an AI could be built, This makes extremely intelligent AIs
Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/
if at all, with expert opinion shown to a unique risk,488 in that extinction is File:Artificial.intelligence.jpg
be very unreliable in this domain.481 more likely than lesser impacts. An
This uncertainty is bi-directional: AIs AI would only turn on humans if it
could be developed much sooner or foresaw a likely chance of winning;
much later than expected. otherwise it would remain fully
integrated into society. And if an An interesting version of this scenario
Despite the uncertainty of when AI had been able to successfully is the possible creation of “whole brain
and how AI could be developed, engineer a civilisation collapse, for emulations,” human brains scanned
there are reasons to suspect that instance, then it could certainly drive and physically instantiated - physically
an AI with human-comparable the remaining humans to extinction. represented - in a machine. This
skills would be a major risk factor. would make the AIs into what could
AIs would immediately benefit On a more positive note, an be called properly human minds,
from improvements to computer intelligence of such power could easily possibly alleviating a lot of problems.
speed and any computer research. combat most other risks in this report,
They could be trained in specific making extremely intelligent AI into
professions and copied at will, thus a tool of great positive potential as 3.3.3.2 Probability
replacing most human capital in well.489 Whether such an intelligence disaggregation
the world, causing potentially great is developed safely depends on how
economic disruption. Through much effort is invested in AI safety
their advantages in speed and (“Friendly AI”)490 as opposed to simply Five important factors in
performance, and through their building an AI.491 estimating the probabilities and
better integration with standard impacts of the challenge:
computer software, they could If the returns from increased
quickly become extremely intelligence are low, intelligence 1. The reliability of AI predictions.
intelligent in one or more domains explosions and extreme intelligence 2. Whether there will be a single
(research, planning, social skills...). may not be possible. In that case, dominant AI or a plethora of entities.
If they became skilled at computer there would probably be an ecology 3. How intelligent AIs will become.
research, the recursive self- of AIs of different levels of intelligence, 4. Whether extremely intelligent AIs
improvement could generate what performing different tasks. In this can be controlled, and how.
is sometime called a “singularity”, scenario, apart from the economic 5. Whether whole brain emulations
482 but is perhaps better described dislocation already noted, there is also (human minds in computer form)
as an “intelligence explosion”, 483 the possibility of AI-enabled warfare will arrive before true AIs.
with the AI’s intelligence increasing and all the risks of the technologies
very rapidly.484 that AIs would make possible.
3.3 Emerging risks
AI
AI
AI arms race amalgamation Extinction
Global Effective Friendly Long-term

coordination regulatory AI projects impact
framework Deliberate
dictatorship
AI-warfare Military Extreme

Meta-uncertainty
AI research intelligence AI
on tradeoffs
freedom
Meta-uncertainty
of what an AI is Reduced impact AI attack Diminishing return
likely to be AI/Oracle AI contained to intelligence

Meta-uncertainty important problems global governance things worse
Uploads Partial Plethora of AIs
on the reliability of
friendliness
AI predictions
Uncontrolled Copyable
AI research human capital

ethical goals
Suffering of
artifical agents
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Economic Human
collapse redundancy
Post-disaster
politics
and economy
General mitigation Total short-term Civilisation

effort casualties Collapse
Total
AIshort-term General mitigation
Post-eruption Civilisation
Extinction
casualties
amalgamation effort
politics collapse
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.3 Emerging risks
1. The advantages of global 7. General mitigation methods will be 15. Disparate AIs may amalgamate
coordination and cooperation are of little use against intelligent AIs, but by sharing their code or negotiating to
clear if there are diminishing returns may help in the aftermath of conflict. share a common goal to pursue their
to intelligence and a plethora of AIs, objectives more effectively.
but less clear if there is a strong first 8. Copyable human capital –
mover advantage to the first group to software with the capability to 16. There may be diminishing returns
produce AI: then the decisions of that perform tasks with human-like skills to intelligence, limiting the power
first group are more relevant than the – would revolutionise the economic of any one AI, and leading to the
general international environment. and social systems. existence of many different AIs.496
2. Military AI research will result in 9. Economic collapse may follow from 17. Partial “friendliness” may
AIs built for military purposes, but mass unemployment as humans are be sufficient to control AIs in
possibly with more safeguards than replaced by copyable human capital. certain circumstances.
other designs.
10. Many economic and social 18. Containing an AI attack may be
3. Effective regulatory frameworks set-ups could inflict great suffering possible, if the AIs are of reduced
would be very difficult without on artificial agents, a great moral intelligence or are forced to attack
knowledge of what forms AIs will negative if they are capable of feeling before being ready.
ultimately take. such suffering.494
19. New political systems may emerge
4. Uncontrolled AI research (or 11. Human redundancy may follow the in the wake of AI creation, or after an
research by teams unconcerned creation of copyable human capital, as AI attack, and will profoundly influence
with security) increases the risk of software replaces human jobs. the shape of future society.
potentially dangerous AI development.
12. Once invented, AIs will 20. AI is the domain with the largest
5. “Friendly AI” projects aim to directly be integrated into the world’s uncertainties; it isn’t clear what an AI
produce AIs with goals compatible economic and social system, is likely to be like.
with human survival. barring massive resistance.
21. Predictions concerning
6. Reduced impact and Oracle AI 13. An AI arms race could result in AI are very unreliable and
are examples of projects that aim AIs being constructed with pernicious underestimate uncertainties.
to produce AIs whose abilities and goals or lack of safety precautions.
goals are restricted in some sense, to
prevent them having a strong negative 14. Uploads – human brains
impact on humanity.493 instantiated in software – are one
route to AIs. These AIs would have
safer goals, lower likelihood of
extreme intelligence, and would be
more likely to be able to suffer.495
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.3.3 Main events development.

25-Apr-13: Kurzweil plans to help 13-Sep-13: Publication: “Responses to
during 2013 Google make an AI brain 501 Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey” 507
– Initiative – Research
19-Mar-13: DARPA Sets Out
to Make Computers That Can The idea of creating a fully general Since the recognition of the potential
Teach Themselves 497 AI, an AI that is capable of all tasks risk with AGI (Artificial General
– Policy requiring intelligence, went into Intelligence),508 various proposals
abeyance during the AI winter,502 have been put forward to deal with
The amount of information stored a period of reduced interest and the problem. After arguing that
in a human brain is extremely funding in AI. The term AI itself fell into uncertainty about a timeline to AI509
large. Similarly, the amount of disfavour.503 But recent AI successes does not translate into a certainty
information needed to perform such as Watson’s triumph on that AIs will take a long time, the
adequately at complex human tasks “Jeopardy!” 504 (demonstrating a certain paper analyses why AIs could be an
is considerable – far more than is level of natural language recognition existential risk. It argues that a trend
easily programmable by hand (the and processing) and Google’s self- toward automatisation would give
Cyc project,498 for instance, started driving car505 (demonstrating spatial AIs increased influence in society,
in 1984, aiming to rapidly formally awareness and movement) have as such systems would be easier
codify all human common sense – revived interest in constructing a to control, and there could be a
and is still running). Thus the interest human-like mind in digital form. discontinuity in which they gained
in the field of machine learning, Kurzweil, hired by Google at the end power rapidly.510 This could pose a
and in algorithms that can teach of 2012, reveals in this interview his great risk to humanity if the AIs did not
themselves skills and knowledge interest in doing just that. A notable share human values (intelligence and
from raw data. With the rise of feature of Kurzweil is his optimism values are argued to be independent
“Big Data”,499 vast databases and about the consequences of creating for an AI),511 a task which seems
increased computer power, there has AIs,506 which could affect the level of difficult to achieve if human values are
been a flowering of applications of precautions his team would include in complex and fragile,512 and therefore
computer learning.500 This has caught its design. problematic to specify.
the eye of the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA), The authors then turned to analysing
a research arm of the US defense the AI safety proposals, dividing them
department responsible for the into proposals for societal action,
development of new technologies. external constraints, and internal
In this project, DARPA aims both constraints. They found that many
to “enable new applications that proposals seemed to suffer from
are impossible to conceive of using serious problems, or to be of limited
today’s technology” and to simplify effectiveness. They concluded by
machines so that non-experts reviewing the proposals they thought
can effectively use them and build most worthy of further study, including
applications for them. This most AI confinement, Oracle AI, and
recent project confirms the interest motivational weaknesses. For the long
of the military in artificial intelligence term, they thought the most promising
approaches were value learning (with
human-like architecture as a less
reliable but possibly easier alternative).
Formal verification was valued,
whenever it could be implemented.
3.3 Emerging risks
for the human race. even of their own.

01-Oct-13: Publication of “Our Final 15-Oct-13: “Racing to the precipice: 24-Oct-13: Growing researcher
Invention: Artificial Intelligence a model of artificial intelligence awareness of the threat of artificial
and the End of the Human Era” development” lays out the dangers intelligence 525
by James Barrat, warning of the of AI arms races 522 – Research
dangers of AI 519 – Research
– Research, Much more effort is devoted to
AIs may be developed by different creating AI than to ensuring that
In this book, James Barrat argues groups, each desiring to be the it is developed safely.526 Those
for the possibility of human-level AI first to produce an artificial mind. working in developing AI could be
being developed within a decade, The competitive pressure will be motivated to minimise the extent
based on the current progress in stronger the more powerful AIs are their creation represented a potential
computer intelligence and the large believed to be, thus maximising danger.527 It is therefore significant
sums invested by governments and the danger in those situations. when a researcher focused on the
corporations into AI research. Once This paper considers an AI arms danger of AI is invited to speak at
this is achieved, the AI would soon race,523 where different teams have a mainstream AI conference, as
surpass human intelligence, and the option of reducing their safety Dr. Anders Sandberg of the Future
would develop survival drives similar precautions in order to perfect of Humanity Institute was, at the
to humans (a point also made in their device first – but running the 23rd International Joint Conference
Omohundro’s “AI drives” thesis).520 risk of creating a dangerous and on Artificial Intelligence in Beijing.
The book then imagines the uncontrollable AI. In the absence of He took part in a panel discussion
competition between humanity and enforceable agreements between the entitled “The Future of AI: What if
a cunning, powerful rival, in the form teams, this dynamic pushes each to we succeed?”, along with Joanna
of the AI – a rival, moreover, that may take on more risk than they would Bryson, Henry Kautz and Sebastian
not be “evil” but simply harmful to want (similarly to the “prisoner’s Thrun. He argued that though
humanity as a side effect of its goals, dilemma”),524 potentially causing an current AI research does not appear
or simply through monopolising extremely damaging outcome. to directly lead to dangerous AIs,
scarce resources. the time to design and implement
The situation is improved if risk- safety measures is now. This is
Along with many interviews of taking makes little difference to both because of the time needed
researchers working in the forefront speed of development, if the teams to develop such safety measures,
of current AI development, the have reduced enmity between which could necessitate solving
book further claims that without them, or if there are fewer teams hard philosophical problems,528 and
extraordinarily careful planning,521 involved (those last two factors also because of the potential for sudden
powerful “thinking” machines present help with reaching agreements). increases in AI skill and intelligence.
potentially catastrophic consequences Somewhat surprisingly, information Further, security precautions would
has a negative impact: the outcome be easier to implement if they
is safer if the teams are ignorant of were integrated into the design by
each other’s rate of progress, and the designers themselves (or by
researchers intimately aware of the
properties of the design). Further
evidence of the increased awareness
of risks was Stuart Russell’s529 joining
of the board of the Cambridge
Centre for the Study of Existential
Risks (CSER).530
Impact
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.4 Unknown
Consequences
Unknown
Consequences
Uncertain risks represent the

unknown unknowns in the family
of global catastrophic challenges.
They constitute an amalgamation

of all the risks that can appear extremely
unlikely in isolation, but can combine to
represent a not insignificant proportion
of the risk exposure. 531
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.4.1 Expected impact But in these situations, the main 3.3.4.2 Probability
source of probability of the risk is
not the quoted number, but the
disaggregation
There are many different possible risks much greater probability that the
that seem individually very unlikely experts’ models and world views Five important factors in
and speculative. Could someone are wrong.537 If marginal scientific estimating the probabilities and
develop a super-pollutant that renders theories predict large risks, the impacts of the challenge:
the human race sterile? Could the probability is concentrated in the
LHC have created a black hole likelihood that the theory might 1. Whether there will be extensive
that swallowed the Earth? 532 Might be correct.538 Conversely, if many research into unknown risks and
computer games become so addictive independent models, theories, and their probabilities.
that large populations will die rather arguments all point in the direction 2. The capacity to develop
than ceasing to indulge in them? 533 of safety, then the conclusion is methods for limiting the
Could experiments on animals more reliable. combined probability of all
lift them to a level of intelligence uncertain risks.
comparable with humans? 534 Might There are methods to estimate 3. The capacity for estimating
some of the people sending signals uncertain risks without needing to be “out-of-model” risks.
to extra-terrestrial intelligences attract explicit about them. One resolution 4. The culture of risk assessment
deadly alien attention? 535 What are to the Fermi paradox – the apparent in potentially risky areas.
the risks out there that we can’t yet absence of alien life in the galaxy – is 5. Whether general, non-risk-
conceive of? that intelligent life destroys itself before specific mitigation or resilience
beginning to expand into the galaxy. measures are implemented.
These risks sound unlikely and for Results that increase539 or decrease
many possibly ridiculous. But many the probability of this explanation
of today’s risks would have sounded modify the generic probability of
ridiculous to people from the past. If intelligent life (self-)destruction, which
this trend is extrapolated, there will be includes uncertain risks. Anthropic
risks in the future that sound ridiculous reasoning540 can also bound the total
today, which means that absurdity is risk of human extinction, and hence
not a useful guide to risk intensity. estimate the unknown component.
Expert opinion provides some Non-risk-specific resilience and

information on specific speculative post-disaster rebuilding efforts541
risks. But it will tend to give them will also reduce the damage from
extremely low probabilities – after all, uncertain risks, as would appropriate
the risks are highly speculative, which national and international regulatory
also means the expert’s judgement is regimes.542 Most of these methods
less reliable.536 would also help with the more
conventional, known risks, and badly
need more investment.
ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHE
3.3 Emerging risks
Post-eco-collapse Global Sustainability
climate change Global poverty coordination research
Long-term
ecological effects
Deliberate
dictatorship
Quality of life Ecological Preservation

loss from collapse efforts
Meta-uncertainty ecosystem loss
on tradeoffs
freedom
Threat to Moral tragedy from Pollution

food supply ecosystem loss
Loss of Improvements to MakingPre-eco-collapse

biodiversity Failing toEconomic
solve costs
important problems global governance thingsclimate
worsechange
Disruption to
Rebuilding politics and Post-eco-collapse
the ecosystem economy politics

ethical goals
Vulnerabilities Sustainable or New,
to flood and non-sustainable environmentally
other disasters economies damaging industries
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
Pre-eco-collapse Technological dictatorship)
mitigation efforts innovations

Post-disaster
politics
and economy
Human survivability Meta-uncertainty on the true dependence of
in “closed” systems humanity on the ecosystem
Total short-term Total short-term General mitigation Civilisation Civilisation

Extinction
casualties Extinction
collapse
Key
Current
Key
Current
3.3 Emerging risks
1. Smart sensors and surveillance 6. Some institutions may 12. The world’s political structure,
could detect many uncertain risks deliberately pursue dangerous after an unknown risk is triggered, will
in the early stages, and allow technologies or experiments, or determine whether humanity improves
researchers to grasp what is going on. may convince themselves that their or worsens the situation.
research is not dangerous.
2. Proper risk assessment in 13. Some methods (such as
domains where uncertain risks are 7. Unforeseen accidents could be the considering the Fermi paradox)
possible could cut down on the trigger for many uncertain risks. may bound the total probability of
risk considerably. destructive uncertain risks, but these
8. The amount of direct casualties are very speculative.
3. Global coordination would aid risk varies wildly depending on the
assessment and mitigation. risk involved. 14. Trying to estimate unknown or
out of model risks is by definition very
4. Specific research into uncertain and 9. The disruptions to the world’s difficult and uncertain.
unknown risks would increase our economic and political system vary
understanding of the risks involved. wildly depending on the risk involved.
5. General mitigation efforts are mostly 10. The uncertain risk may have other
general resilience building. disruptive effects (such as loss of trust
in certain technologies).
11. The long-term impact varies wildly

depending on the risk involved.
3.3 Emerging risks
3.3.4.3 Main events 01-Aug-13: The Fermi paradox Such an explanation gives a bound
provides an estimate of total to existential risk from all sources,
during 2013 existential risk (including uncertain including uncertain risks.
risks) 548
28-Mar-13: Paper on Adaptation – Research This paper demonstrates the
to and recovery from global relative ease with which a space-
catastrophes in general 543 The Fermi paradox is the seeming faring civilisation could cross
– Research contradiction between the apparent between galaxies.
ease with which intelligent life could
One approach to dealing with arise in the galaxy, and the lack of Combined with recent evidence
uncertain risks is to build general evidence of any such life. that the majority of Earth-like
adaptation and recovery methods that planets formed before the Earth,551
would be relevant to a wide class of Many explanations have been this makes the absence of visible
potential disasters. This paper notes proposed to resolve the paradox,549 intelligent life more inexplicable,
the absence of published research one of which is relevant to and worsens the Fermi paradox,
in this area,544 and seeks to begin to existential risks: the “Late Great increasing the probability of a Late
fill the gap. It identifies methods for Filter” explanation.550 This posits Great Filter and thus of existential
increasing survivor resilience and that intelligent life is inevitably risk from all sources.
promoting successful adaptation destroyed before it can expand
and recovery, even for isolated through the galaxy.
communities. It recognises that the
process is highly complex, and needs
further research.
Figure 23: Number of galaxies that can reach us with speeds of 50%c, 80%c, 99%c and c, from different
28-Mar-13: Paper Evaluating Methods starting moments 552
for Estimating Existential Risks 545

– Research
It would be advantageous to have

a rigorous approach for estimating
severe risks, including uncertain and
unknown ones. This paper reviews
and assesses various methods for
estimating existential risks, such as
simple elicitation; whole evidence
Bayesian; evidential reasoning using
imprecise probabilities; Bayesian
networks; influence modelling based
on environmental scans; simple
elicitation using extinction scenarios
as anchors; and computationally
intensive possible-worlds modelling.546
These methods can be applied
rigorously to uncertain risks, assessing
them in the same way as more
standard risks. Influence modelling
based on environmental scans547
can even suggest some new as yet
unknown risks.
3.3 Emerging risks
01-Nov-13: Top conglomerates

spearhead creation of private sector
disaster response body 553
– Initiative
One of the most effective tools

against uncertain risks is to
adopt general disaster recovery
measures. Anything that enables
the preservation of resources
or knowledge and the rapid
reconstruction of key infrastructure
will be of use against a wide variety
of risks. Though governments and
supra-governmental organisations
play a vital role in this, it would be
beneficial to get the private sector,
with its funds and its expertise,
involved too. The private sector
has played a key role in recovery
from many disasters (such as
the Japanese 2011 earthquake/
tsunami).554 This news report shows
that the private sector aims to take
on a larger role in disaster relief in
the Philippines. More importantly,
the key players aim for the creation
of a private sector disaster
response body, so as to have a
better organised private sector
response during disasters. This is
significant as it disperses disaster
recovery expertise to a wider group
of individuals, and suggests that
private companies may be alternate
entities capable of providing
relief after a major disaster. Thus
preparations for post-disaster
recovery could include building up
private sector capacity as well as
other measures.
3.4 Global Policy risk
3.4.1 Future Bad

Global Governance
Future Bad Global Globa

Global Governance Pandemic Collap
“Global governance refers to the way

in which global affairs are managed.
As there is no global government, global
Nuclear War Super-volcano Synth
governance typically involves a range of
Biolog
actors including states, as well as regional
and international organisations.
However, a single organisation

may nominally be given the lead
role on an issue.” 485
Often global governance is confused An example of the second would 3.4.1.2 Probability
with global government, but they be constructing a global totalitarian
are two very different things. Global state.557 In general, technology,
disaggregation
governance is just a term to describe political and social change may
the way global affairs are managed, enable the construction of new forms Five important factors in estimating
or not managed. Global government of governance, which may be either the probabilities of various impacts:
is the idea that the world should be much better or much worse.
run like a country with a government. 1. How the severity of non-deadly
The global governance system These examples immediately policy failures can be compared
will inevitably have pros and cons, illustrate two issues with governance with potential casualties.
depending on the political decisions disasters. First, the task of estimating 2. Whether poor governance will result
that are made. their probability is difficult. Long- in a collapse of the world system.
term political predictions are of 3. How mass surveillance and
questionable validity and subject to other technological innovations
3.4.1.1 Expected impact strong biases,558 especially where will affect governance.
strongly-held values are concerned.559 4. Whether there will be new systems
Second, the impact of these of governance in the future.
This section looks at global governance disasters depends to a 5. Whether a world dictatorship
governance disasters. Though all the large extent on subjective comparative may end up being constructed.
risks in this report can be exacerbated evaluations. It is not impartially
by poorly chosen policy decisions, this obvious how to rank continued
classification contains those problems poverty and global totalitarianism
that arise almost exclusively from bad versus billions of casualties or
policy choices. civilisation collapse.560 The long term
impact needs also to be considered:
There are two main divisions in how will poverty and global
governance disasters: failing to solve governance change? If there are many
major solvable problems, and actively generations ahead of us, then the
causing worse outcomes. An example long term state of humanity’s policy561
of the first would be failing to alleviate becomes much more important than
absolute poverty.556 the short term one.
Deliberate
dictatorship
Deliberate
dictatorship
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
freedom
Meta-uncertainty
on tradeoffs
freedom



ethical goals

ethical goals
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Undesirable
world system
(e.g. global
dictatorship)
Post-disaster
politics
and economy

Post-disaster
politics
and economy

Extinction

Extinction
Key
Current
Key
Current
1. Global coordination between 6. Some groups may deliberately seek 14. Governance decisions taken at
nations is essential for building a good to construct a world dictatorship, the global level have a high potential
global governance system – but also either through self-interest or because to cause disruptions to the world’s
essential for building a bad one. they believe it would be the best political and economic systems.
design for global governance.
2. Global poverty is one of the 15. Bad governance at the global
important problems that are being 7. Undesirable world systems (such as level may not be susceptible to
only partially solved by current global dictatorships) could result from improvements and could cause
policies. In turn, it can contribute to a worsening of global governance. problems for a considerable amount
global instability, worsening likely of time.
governance outcomes. 8. Many value systems do not
distinguish between action and 16. Technological innovations could
3. Smart sensors and mass inaction, so a global system that allow completely new models of
surveillance can contribute to new didn’t positively encourage human government, but could also facilitate
systems of governance, but also to flourishing would be almost as surveillance dictatorships.
large-scale dictatorships. pernicious as one that blocked it.
17. Global instability could result
4. The global system of governance 9. Global pollution is a problem in more pernicious systems of
consists of the UN and a wide requiring solutions at the global governance, as well as an increased
variety of bilateral or multilateral governance level. failure to solve important problems.
agreements and norms, constructed
mainly according to national 10. Climate change is a problem 18. New systems of governance
self-interests. Thus significant requiring solutions at the global could be developed, using
improvements to global governance governance level. modern communication
are currently possible. technology for instance.
11. Various ethical systems have
5. General mitigation efforts against desirable goals that could be achieved 19. The political landscape after
governance disasters are tricky – in theory, but would not be achieved a disaster will be important in
most mitigation efforts are the results under suboptimal governance. determining whether governance
of governance decisions! However, disasters could cause civilisation
some efforts can be made – for 12. It would be a tragedy if absolute collapses or mass casualties.
instance, an increase in recognised poverty were to endure over the
human rights across the globe could generations to come, especially if this 20. How to compare enduring poverty,
militate against certain pernicious outcome were avoidable. actual casualties, and repressive
governance directions. These efforts governance is a question of values
are of a very different nature to 13. A collapse of the world system, for and not just of direct comparison of
mitigating other risks. any reason (including revolution) is the lives lost.
most direct way a governance disaster
could result in mass casualties.
3.4.1.3 Main events – Perhaps the most cost-effective This confirms other studies, by
way to reduce existential risks the World Bank564 and others:565
during 2013 today is to fund analysis of a poverty reduction is possible, and
wide range of existential risks and has been successfully implemented
15-Feb-13: Existential risk reduction potential mitigation strategies, with in many countries.
as a global priority 562 a long-term perspective.
– Research
If this paper is right, a general lack 05-Jun-13: Guardian leaks NSA
In this paper Nick Bostrom, the of focus on existential risks by spying programme 566
director of the Future of Humanity governments and other agents can – Initiative
Institute, lays out the case for making be considered a governance disaster
existential risk reduction a global in itself. A significant event was the revelation
priority. Existential risks (Xrisks) are the by Edward Snowden of the extent of
highest category of negative impact the NSA’s surveillance programme.
in this report, those that threaten the 19-Apr-13: Multidimensional poverty This included the mass recording
entire future of humanity. The policy index diminishes in 18 out of 22 and mining of data across the
implications of the paper are: analysed countries 563 United States and the interception of
– Event foreign politicians’ data.
– Existential risk is a concept that can
focus long-term global efforts and Of 22 countries for which the Oxford The revelations caused great
sustainability concerns. Poverty and Human Development controversy567 and raised questions
– The biggest existential risks Initiative analysed changes in MPI about the NSA’s surveillance
are anthropogenic and related to (Multidimensional Poverty Index) oversight.568 The episode established
potential future technologies. poverty over time, 18 reduced that discrete mass surveillance – an
– A moral case can be made that poverty significantly. important component of potential
existential risk reduction is strictly
more important than any other
global public good.
– Sustainability should be rethought Less poverty of nations
in dynamic terms, as aiming for a
100
sustainable trajectory rather than a
Gini index*
sustainable state.
– Some small existential risks can 29.1
be mitigated today directly (e.g. 80
asteroids) or indirectly (by building
resilience and reserves to increase
survivability in a range of extreme China
35.5
scenarios) but it is more important 35.1 60
to build capacity to improve
humanity’s ability to deal with the
India
larger existential risks that will arise 33.4
30.8 40
later in this century. This will require
collective wisdom, technology
foresight, and the ability when
necessary to mobilise a strong 20
global coordinated response to 57.5 41.5
expected existential risks. Brazil
59.7 57.6
1981 81 90 95 2000 05
93
Figure 24: Less poverty of nations - Population living below $1.25 a day at 2005 Purchasing-pover parity, %
* 0=absolute equality, 100=absolute inequality
Source: Economist, originally World Bank, http://www.economist.com/node/14979330
totalitarianism – was already

possible using current technology
and political organisation.
14-Jun-13: UNDP-UNEP Poverty-

Environment Initiative Launches New
Five-Year Phase to Meet Growing
Demand from Member States 569
– Policy
To reduce poverty in the future,

it is important to maintain and
extend past trends in poverty
mitigation. The United Nations’
Poverty-Environment Initiative (PEI),
launched in 2008, has had a number
of success stories from Uruguay570
to Malawi.571 Due to increased
demand from member states, the
programme has been extended
for another five years, 2013-2017,
and may add countries such as
Myanmar, Mongolia, Indonesia,
Albania, Peru and Paraguay. Such
programmes demonstrate that
the bureaucratic/policy side of
poverty reduction is supported by
an international infrastructure with a
strong emphasis on assessments.
The effect of such approaches on
overall poverty will depend on the
interplay between these policies and
the other side of poverty reduction:
economic growth572 and trade.573
4. Relations between global risk
4. Relations between
global risks
“We have some idea what might happen if,

in the face of other pressing global challenges,
we divert our focus from making systemic
improvements in public health and veterinary
services — and that prospect is frightening.”
The World Bank 574
4. Relations between global risk / 4.1 General relations between global risks and their potential impacts
Two things make the understanding 4.1 General relations Nuclear war,577 asteroid impacts578
of the relation between the global and super-volcanoes579 have direct
risks particularly important.
between global risks impacts on the climate, and, through
and their potential impacts that, on the ecosystem.580
1. Impacts: The global risks
are interconnected in different Relations between global risks is an The kinds of mitigation efforts capable
ways. Often the situation can be area where surprisingly little work is of containing the damage from a
described as a set of dominoes: if being done. Most research focuses super-volcano would most likely be
one falls, many others follow. Even on individual or closely related effective against asteroid impact
small impacts can start a process groups of challenges. Organisations damage, because of the similar
where different challenges interact. working on global challenges are nature of the impacts. The converse
Higher temperatures due to global almost always working on individual is not true, since one major method
warming can result in the spreading risks. The initial overview below is of reducing asteroid impact – space-
of pandemics which increase based on individual studies where based deflection581 – would have no
tensions between countries, and different relations are analysed, but impact on super-volcano risk.
so on. no work has been identified where
the relations between all twelve Solving climate change would help
2. Specific measures to address challenges have been analysed. reduce current ecological pressure.582
a risk: Global risks often require International agreements to reduce
significant changes in our current A risk that is natural to start with is ecological damage could be extended
society, from how we build cities future bad global governance, as all to combating climate change as
to how food is produced and other global challenges exacerbate well, by establishing structures
provided. Such significant changes governance disasters,575 and all other for international collaboration and
will result in situations where global challenges can potentially be encouraging resource-efficient
measures to reduce the risk in exacerbated by governance disasters. solutions. Climate change also creates
one area affect the probability A well functioning global governance conditions more suitable for the
and/or the impact in other areas. system is therefore a key factor to spread of pandemics.583 Measures to
Depending on the measure chosen address global catastrophic risks. combat global pandemics, such as
to reduce the risk, and other strengthened outbreak coordination
complementary measures, the Conversely, avoiding governance and statistical modelling,584 could be
effect can be positive or negative. disasters improves all risks, as used to combat synthetic pathogens
better institutions are better able to as well.
mitigate risks. Governance disasters
directly increase the problems of If a safe artificial intelligence is
climate change (through a lack of developed, this provides a great
coordination between countries), resource for improving outcomes
the risk of nuclear war (by stoking and mitigating all types of risk.585
conflict between nuclear powers) and Artificial intelligence risks worsening
global system collapse (by weakening nanotechnology risks, by allowing
global responses to systemic risks). nanomachines and weapons to be
All risks exacerbate global system designed with intelligence and without
collapse, by putting extra stress on an centralised control, overcoming the
interconnected system.576 Conversely, main potential weaknesses of these
a resilient governance system is machines586 by putting planning
better able to cope with all risks, and abilities on the other side.
a collapsed global system is more
vulnerable to all risks.
4.1 General relations between global risks and their potential impacts
Conversely, nanotechnology Nanotechnology and synthetic biology controlled and benevolent synthetic
abilities worsen artificial intelligence are sufficiently closely related590 (both creations could act to improve and
risks, by giving AI extra tools which dealing with properties on an atomic heal current ecological damage.
it could use for developing its scale) for methods developed in
power base.587 Nanotechnology one to be ported over to the other, There are many secondary effects
and synthetic biology could allow potentially worsening the other risk. that are not covered here. Increasing
the efficient creation of vaccines They are sufficiently distinct though nuclear power could for instance
and other tools to combat global (a mainly technological versus a improve the outlook for climate
pandemics.588 Nanotechnology’s mainly biological approach) for change,591 while increasing the risk of
increased industrial capacity could countermeasures in one domain not proliferation592 and thus of nuclear war.
allow the creation of large amounts necessarily to be of help in the other. There are many such effects between
of efficient solar panels to combat various strategies for addressing
climate change, or even potentially Uncontrolled or malicious synthetic different risks, but they are specific
the efficient scrubbing of CO2 from pathogens could wreak great damage enough for there to be no simple
the atmosphere.589 on the ecosystem; conversely, arguments of the type which says that
mitigating risk X worsens risk Y.
ALL
RISKS
first risk worsens second risk
solving first risk improves second risk
both of the above
4.1 Specific relations between global risks
4.2 Specific Below is an example of an overview An international initiative should start

of how different global challenges to achieve better understanding
relations between can be plotted depending on the of the relations between global
global risks technical difficulty of reducing challenges in order to ensure
the risk and the difficulty of synergies and avoid strategies that
In parallel with work to increase our collaborating to reduce it. will undermine other challenges.
understanding about the general
relations between global risks, work to
identify more specific relations should
people die / suffer
also be initiated. This is an area where
many pieces of research exist. But very
little work has been done to combine
them and assess different strategies
to address specific global risks and
people afraid
of infections
understand how these strategies will
short term
thinking
affect other global risks. It is important support use
to distinguish between two different
kinds of specific relations.
Extreme Climate Change Global Pandemic
First, there are solution strategies for
one global risk and the ways it affects
other global risks. For example, using
renewable energy
video conferences can reduce the

probability of pandemics by reducing
from nature
unnecessary travel. On the other hand,
accident
more video
attack
meetings
consumption
more
unsustainable use of bio-energy could

less meat
increase spillover opportunities when

a zoonosis (a disease transmitted
from animals to humans) increases reduce risk
the spread of pandemics due to an
increased number of contacts between increase risk
humans and infected animals in forests
around the world.593
Second, how society reacts to the very

threat of different risks can affect other
challenges. For example, if people are
afraid of pandemics they might use
more video meetings and in that way
help reduce carbon emissions.
Attempts to develop solutions for

specific global challenges should
technical difficulty of reducing risk
assess their impacts, positive and

negative, on other challenges.
In order to better understand the
relations between different global
challenges, work could start to
analyse similarities and differences.
collaboration difficulty of reducing risk
5. Probabilities and uncertainties – an initial overview
5. Probabilities and uncertainties

– an initial overview
“Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.

But certainty is an absurd one.”
Voltaire
During the process of identifying almost all steps of the assessment. These estimates are only an attempt
risks that could have an infinite Not only do great uncertainties exist to assemble existing estimates in
impact it became evident that for all the risks, but the difficulties of order to encourage a process to
the most common question estimating probabilities are also very improve these numbers.
among people interested in different. At one end of the spectrum the
global challenges is this: “How probability of a nuclear war can change These estimates range from rigorous
probable is it that this impact dramatically from one day to another calculations based on large amounts
will ever happen?” For those due to political decisions. Much of the of high-quality data (asteroids) to
with expert knowledge in one uncertainty is related to psychological guesstimates by interested experts
area the first question is often: assumptions of how different individuals (AI). The result is that some have a
“How does the probability and will react under stress. more rigorous methodology behind
magnitude of impact in this area them, and others should be taken
compare with the probability and At the other end of the spectrum with a large grain of salt, but all are
magnitude of impact in other there is AI, where there is not even a still very rough estimates. As science
areas?” Finally, those who have generally accepted understanding of progresses they will be updated.
tried to estimate probabilities for the possibility of the impacts capable It is even possible that some will
global challenges ask: “What is the of creating the risks covered in this change by orders of magnitude.
status of knowledge in other areas report. There are challenges with But instead of no estimate at all, we
compared to mine?” very much data, including asteroids, now have an initial reference that we
and other challenges with very little hope will trigger a discussion and
These are all very important questions, relevant data, such as bad future collaboration that will help improve
and this chapter is not an attempt global governance. what we have already.
to answer them. But, as there is no
organisation, process or report that Obviously the risks also share a As many of the challenges are long-
has provided an overview of quantified number of characteristics: they all term and require early action to be
assessment for global challenges with have potentially extreme outcomes avoided or mitigated, the probability
potential infinite impact, the chapter and have never been experienced is provided for the next 100 years,
does try to present the current state before. The possibility of studying instead of the annual probability that
of knowledge in order to inspire series of data, exploring how the is often provided. The reason for this
further work. outcome will change with incremental is that a 100-year perspective helps
changes in input data, and testing us understand that even relatively
It is easy to argue that it is too difficult, conclusions on similar events are just small probabilities can become
or even impossible, to assess the a few examples of things that in most significant over a century. Say that
probabilities that are at all meaningful cases cannot be done. Estimating it is a one in 100 probability (1%) for
for the risks in this report, and probabilities in traditional ways is an impact to occur. Over a century
therefore to exclude them. There are therefore very difficult.594 there is a 63.4% probability of one
many good reasons for not trying, or more such impacts.595 Further,
including significant uncertainty in However, as the current lack of structures that need to change require
interest in global risks with potentially us to look beyond the immediate
infinite impacts may in part be due to and incremental changes that most
the lack of actual numbers, the best discussions focus on today.
estimates that could be found are
presented below with explanations.
Structure of the probability estimates 2. Data availability One of the key guiding rules they
As the different challenges are very This is an estimate of the amount of follow is to ensure a capital adequacy
different and the status of probability data available to make probability at a 1-in-200 level.
estimates varies significantly, the initial assessments on all relevant steps
probability numbers are provided of the sequence. In some areas a This rule, which is included in for
together with estimates regarding: lot of hard-to-get data is needed example ICA596 and Solvency II,597
to make an assessment (e.g a provides an opportunity to discuss
1. The understanding of sequence global pandemic); in other areas risks with a possible infinite impact.
This is an estimation of how well the the data is related to secret and/
sequence from today to a possible or psychological factors (e.g. One contribution could be to discuss
infinite impact is understood. At large-scale nuclear war). In others the pros and cons with different
one extreme all the different paths relatively little data is needed definitions of the 1-in-200 level. For
from today to an infinite impact are (asteroids), or a lot has been done example, one definition is that “each
understood. At the other extreme, to gather data (e.g. climate change). company holds enough capital to
there is only a theoretical idea that withstand the events of the next one
is coherent and does not break any 3. Existing probability estimates year with a probability of 199 out of
natural laws. In the latter case there These form an estimate of the 200.” 598 This would exclude many
would be no understanding of how kind of uncertainty that exists. of the risks in this report and could
it is possible to get from where we This obviously depends on an even result in the risks increasing,
are today to an infinite impact. A understanding of sequence as the time perspective is so short.
sequence is required to calculate and data availability, but it also Investments could help reduce short-
an estimate instead of only having depends on resources and interest term risks at the same time as they
educated guesses. in communicating with the rest of increase long-term risks.
the world.
Another definition is that “a company
The estimates below are preliminary, should hold enough capital to be
but a sound risk approach requires able to withstand a ‘reasonably
stakeholders to begin to include them foreseeable’ adverse event”.599 This
in strategic assessments. highlights the challenge of determining
what “reasonably foreseeable” is.
One group in particular is of interest Hopefully all the risks in this report
and that is actuaries, the professionals could be included on such a list. Then
who deal with the financial impact of the questions would be regarding
risk and uncertainty. what we can do about it.
0.01%
0.001% one in ten 0.1%
one in a hundred thousand one in a
thousand thousand
0.0001% 1%
one in a one in a
million hundred
0.00001% 10%
one in ten one in
million ten
infinite impact %
0.0000001% infinite threshold % 100%

one in a hundred one in one
million
1. Understanding 2. Data 3. Existing probability

of sequence availability estimation
all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Extreme
Climate Change
Extreme climate change is one of The IPCC process ensures that Most models indicate that it will be
the risks where global research data is widely available and of decades before the Earth reaches
collaboration has taken place on a good quality, thanks to intensive equilibrium, and some impacts,
significant scale. peer review in the natural science like sea-level rise, will happen
area. Estimates of political and over millennia.602 This long interval 0.01%
The IPCC process is an technological development exist, but 0.001%
between action and impact meansone in ten
unprecedented scientific achievement they are more rudimentary compared oneofin
the probability a hundred
climate change isthousand
that has helped provide a unique level to the natural sciences.601 expressed onthousand
a 200-year timescale,
of understanding for such a complex compared with 100 years for the
area. Even so, the understanding of With such a high-profile area there are 0.0001% other challenges.
tipping points and collapses is still also a number of quantified estimates one in a
rudimentary. From a risk perspective it in key areas such as emissions million Based on available assessments603
is important to know that many factors trajectories, climate sensitivity, the best current estimate for
that could result in infinite impacts impacts and thresholds that allow for extreme climate change in the
are excluded from most studies, for 0.00001%
approximations of probabilities. But next 200 years is:
example the rapid release of methane only a few estimates one
exist in ten
that provide
million
clathrates.600 Similarly, significant
uncertainty exists about political
probability assessments, as there is a
tendency to use scenarios instead.
5% for infinite threshold,
0.01% for infinite impact
infinite impact %
decisions in many countries, about the
implementation of new solutions and
about what lifestyles will dominate.
0.0000001%
One aspect that makes climate
change different
infinite threshol
onefrom
in aall other risks
hundred
is that the time from
million initial action
to impact is very long. The great
uncertainty is where the threshold
lies where the planet begins to
emit greenhouse gases that start
irreversible feedbacks.
0.01%
5%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
0.01%
0.001% one in ten
one in a hundred thousand
thousand
Nuclear War 0.0001%

one in a
million
0.00001%
one in ten
million
Nuclear war is the risk that started The data availability is relatively infinite impact %
There are some estimates of key
the work with scientific assessments low as much of the probability is aspects, such as the probability of
related to infinite impact.604 decided by factors that are secret accidental initiation of a nuclear war,
0.0000001%
(e.g. the targets for nuclear weapons). infinite threshol
but few estimates of the probability of
The understanding of the sequence It depends on one in a hundred
knowledge that by a full-scale nuclear war.
is relatively well known. Still, the million
definition is unavailable (no nuclear
fact is that the impact will depend explosions, for example, have taken Based on available assessments607
significantly on how serious the place in a modern city); on human the best current estimate for nuclear
nuclear winter will be as the result of factors (e.g. stress tolerance and war in the next 100 years is:
a war (if there is any nuclear winter aggressive tendencies among those
at all). The probability of a nuclear who will have to decide whether 5% for infinite threshold,
winter will depend on when during the or not to launch nuclear weapons); 0.005% for infinite impact
year the war happens, and what the and on the effectiveness of current
weather is during this time. The result policies (e.g. how efficient current
is that the probability of an infinite deterrence policies are). The fact that
impact has an inherent uncertainty climate change research has provided
and can be estimated only once a war better scientific understanding of the
has already started. probability and nature of a nuclear
winter, thanks to better climate
modelling, is worth noting as it
shows how research programmes 0.01%
on different global challenges can be
mutually supportive.605
5%
0.005%
5%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Global
Pandemic
On a general level the sequence, or When it comes to data availability for Most of the probability estimates
rather sequences, for a pandemic pandemics the situation is different made for pandemics are for their more
are relatively well-known. The compared with nuclear war or benign versions. For the possible
challenge here is that there are climate change, where the impact pandemic that could kill two billion or
so many different scenarios that 0.01%
0.01%
depends on something that can more there are very few estimates.
0.001%
0.001%
it is very difficult to calculate all one
be removedoneininten 0.1%
0.1%
ten weapons and
(nuclear
the different possibilities evenone
onein inaahundred
hundred gases). It is notone
thousand
greenhousethousand one in
inaa
possible Based on available assessments608
if the sequence is well-known. thousand
thousand to get rid of mutating viruses thousand
thousand
and the best current estimate of a global
Compared with climate change other organisms, so the data needed pandemic in the next 100 years is:
0.0001%
0.0001%
where greenhouse gases are a is of another kind and magnitude. 1%
1%
one
onein
small group, inaa nuclear war
and There will always be new diseases one
5% forin
one in aa threshold,
infinite
where themillion
million
number of warheads emerging, because there is constant hundred
hundred
0.0001% for infinite impact
is relatively limited, the number of evolution, resulting from microbes
ways that a global pandemic can looking for ecological niches.
0.00001%
0.00001%start is almost unlimited. 10%
10%
The reason for the big difference
one
onein intenten With many of the spillover effects one
onein
between threshold in and impact is
million
million ten
ten
Making things worse too is the fact
that a global pandemic that reached
infinite
infinite impact
impact %
%
occurring in remote areas, even
basic data is still very rudimentary.
mainly that a pandemic will not
directly affect infrastructure or the
the infinite threshold would most Scientists who collect data relevant rest of the ecosystem in the way that
000001%
000001% infinite
certainly be very different from almost
all earlier pandemics, and maybe
infinite threshold
threshold %
%
for pandemics are often working with
very small resources, and there is no
100%
100%
extreme climate change or nuclear
war would. This
aahundred
hundred onemeans
one in
inone
onethat resilience
n something totally new that has never systematic way of collecting data on will be relatively better after the infinite
happened before. Understanding a global scale, although interesting threshold is crossed.
more than the most basic sequence initiatives are under way.607 While
therefore becomes a challenge. an early warning system would be
comparatively inexpensive, there are
still no resources available. 0.00
0.0
0.01%
0.01% 0.0001%
0.0001%
5%
5% 5%
5%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
0.01%
0.01%
0.001%
0.001% one
oneininten
ten 0.1%
0.1%
one
oneininaahundred
hundred thousand
thousand one
oneininaa
thousand
thousand thousand
thousand
0.0001%
Ecological
0.0001% 1%
1%
one
oneininaa one
oneininaa
Catastrophe
million
million 609 hundred
hundred
0.00001%
0.00001% 10%
10%
one
oneininten
ten one
oneinin
million
million ten
ten
This is one of the more complex infinite
infinite impact
impact
There are %%about the
many studies Regarding probability estimates, it is
risks as it can be seen more as a stability and possible collapse of only ecological collapse and global
heading than a description of a different ecosystems, but there are system collapse of the current man-
000001%
000001%specific challenge with a well-definedinfinite
infinite threshold
threshold %
%
few that look into the possibility 100%
100%
made global challenges that have no
naahundred
hundred
sequence. In other words it is not for a full ecological collapse that estimates forone
one ininone
infinite one
impact.
n one sequence, but very many still would result in at least two billion
unknown sequences. The concept people suffering. Based on available assessments611
of ecological collapse usually refers the best current estimate of an
to a situation where some part of the Data availability is good in many ecological catastrophe in the next 100
ecological web becomes so weak that areas, but the challenge is that years is:
it collapses. without an understanding of the 0.00
0.0
system dynamics, and because of its 0.5% for infinite threshold,
complexity, there are inherent limits to Not available for infinite impact
how exact the knowledge is that can
be achieved.610
0.01%
0.01% 0.0001%
0.0001%
5%
5% 5%
5%
0.005%
0.005% 0.5%
0.5%
5%
5% nn/a
/a

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Global System
Collapse
Since the financial crisis the Second, it is a recent system that The data availability of global system
possibility of a global collapse of has been so interconnected for collapse is something of a paradox.
the current political, economic and only a few years, as it depends on On the one hand the system is almost
financial system has been discussed an infrastructure that did not exist nothing but information, but at the
intensively. A rapidly evolving and before the internet, so there is little same time data about how the system
increasingly interconnected system, it experience of how it works. itself operates, what algorithms are
is subject to unexpected, system-wide used, and so on, are not well known.
failures because of the structure of the Third, the system is rapidly
network – it faces a systemic risk. changing and becoming No estimate of the probability of a
even more complex as more global system collapse that would
Possible sequences for a global connections are added and result in an impact beyond the infinite
system collapse resulting in infinite its speed increases. Better threshold has been identified during
impacts are very hard to establish, understanding of complex the project.
for three reasons. First, it is a very systems with multiple
complicated system, with many attractors and bifurcation Based on available assessments the
dynamic interactions, as there are behaviour will help improve the best current estimate of a global
many people who, together with possibility of understanding system collapse in the next 100
machines, react to each other. The the possible sequences.613 years is:
current global system shows a lot
of complex dynamic phenomena, An additional challenge for the Not available for infinite threshold,
such as business cycles, financial understanding of sequences that Not available for infinite impact
crises, irregular growth, and bullwhip can result in impacts beyond the
effects.612 Many nonlinear dynamic infinite threshold is that almost all
models of economics and finance research being done in the area of
present various complex dynamic global system collapse focuses on its
behaviours such as chaos, fractals, economic or geopolitical implications,
and bifurcation. not on a full system collapse and not
on human suffering.
0.1%
one
one in
in aa
thousand
thousand
1%
one
one in
in aa n /a n /a
hundred
hundred
10%
one
one in
in
154 ten Global Challenges – Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation – The case for a new category of risks
t% ten

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Major Asteroid
Impact
The understanding of sequence Other initiatives, like the the Based on available assessments618
when it comes to asteroid impacts Sentinel Mission by the B612 the best current estimate of a major
is relatively straightforward, and our foundation, are under way that will asteroid impact in the next 100
planet is constantly experiencing further improve availability. years is:
asteroids, so assumptions can be
tested. This, combined with the fact Compared with most other 0.01% for infinite threshold,
that there has been a number of global challenges there are many 0.00013% for infinite impact
major impacts in the Earth’s history, probability estimates with transparent
makes the sequence reasonably methodology, and the degree of
well known.614 uncertainty is relatively low compared
with other challenges. NASA even
The data availability is still far from has an overview of the probability of
perfect, but it is rapidly improving. individual objects hitting Earth.617 For
Currently NASA has a table with the most severe impacts, the size of
potential future Earth impact the asteroid will make it visible years in
events that the JPL Sentry System advance, and this will only improve as
has detected, based on currently our capacity to scan the space around
available observations.615 us increases.
0.1%
one
one in
in aa
thousand
thousand
1%
one
one in
in aa n /a n/a
hundred
hundred
10%
one
one in
in
ten
ten
t%
old % 100%
one
one in
in one
one 0.01%
0.00013%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Super-volcano
The super-volcano risk has many There is data available for different Based on available assessments619
similarities with a major asteroid risk. impacts, and knowledge of where the best current estimate of a super-
Both have happened a number of super-volcanoes might erupt is volcano in the next 100 years is:
times through our planet’s history, and increasing, but due to the lack of
both have had major consequences. understanding when it comes to the 0.002% for infinite threshold,
0.1% sequence, the probability estimations 0.00003% for infinite impact
one in a
The understanding of the sequence is are still very rudimentary.
thousand
however a lot lower than for asteroids,
as the mechanisms behind volcano A number of estimates exist where
1%
eruptions are not very well known. The the probability is assessed, but they
one in when
possibility of foreseeing a a super-
n /a
are quite rudimentary, based on the
n/a
hundred
volcano will erupt and how big the historic frequency of earlier super-
impact will be is therefore low. Compared volcano eruptions. As these are so
with a major asteroid, there will therefore infrequent, the uncertainty becomes
be much less time to prepare.10% very significant.
one in
ten
%
old % 100%
one in one 0.01%
0.00013%
0.0001% 0.002%
5% 0.00003%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
0.1%
0.1%
one in a
one in a
thousand
thousand
1%
Synthetic
1%
one in
one in aa nn/a
/a nn/a
/a
Biology
hundred
hundred
10%
10%
one in
one in
ten
%
% ten
Many experts see synthetic biology One of the challenges to Based on available assessments622
as the most serious future risk. The understanding the sequence is that the best current estimate of an
ability already exists to develop very the spreading of synthetic biology impact from synthetic biology in the
old %
old % 100%
100%
deadly viruses, and as knowledge will come either from a wilful act next 100 years is:
one in
and technology develop further,
one in one
moreone (e.g. terrorism) or an accident 0.01%
0.01%
deadly pandemics can be developed (e.g. unintentional release from a 1% for infinite threshold,
by an increasing number of people. laboratory). This also makes data 0.01% for infinite impact
hard to get. There are some numbers
The basic sequence is relatively for accidents in labs, but they are The probability numbers for synthetic
well-known, given that it would be a available in only a few countries and biology are very high and can
more deadly version of a current virus, 0.00013%
0.00013%
there are probably many more than hopefully be reduced once better
but there is also the possibility that those reported.620 With terrorist acts monitoring is in place, together with
a new virus (or other organism) may there are probability estimates that increased global collaboration.
be found where the sequence will be can be used as a basis for the use of
unknown and therefore also much synthetic biology as well.621
more dangerous.
There are some existing estimates
for synthetic biology, but these are
based on possible use in war, where
calculations depend on some specific
0.0001%
0.0001% differences from existing pathogens 0.002%
0.002%
that are assumed to be necessary for
a pandemic with an infinite impact.
5%
5% 0.00003%
0.00003%
0.5%
0.5% 0.01%
0.01%
nn/a
/a 1%
1%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is best described Compared with many other global Admiral David E. Jeremiah,
as a general capacity, rather than challenges, nanotechnology could for example, said at the 1995
a specific tool. In relation to infinite result in many different risks and Foresight Conference on Molecular
impacts this is a challenge, as there opportunities, from an accelerated Technology: “Military applications
are many ways that nanotechnology ability to manufacture (new) weapons623 of molecular manufacturing have
can be used that could result in infinite to the creation of new materials and even greater potential than nuclear
impacts, but also many others where substances. These are certainly orders weapons to radically change the
it can help reduce infinite impacts. of magnitude more likely, far likelier balance of power.” 624 A systems-
than any probability of the “grey forecasting approach could probably
Different possible sequences from goo” that has resulted in significant provide better estimates and help
today’s situation to precise atomic misunderstanding. develop complementary measures
manufacturing are well documented, that would support the positive parts
and the probability that none of The data availability is difficult to of nanotechnology while reducing
the possible paths would deliver estimate as there are very different the negative.
results is very small. What specific kinds of data, and also an obvious
sequence and with what results is lack of data, as nanotechnology is in Based on available assessments625
however very uncertain. its very early days. the best current estimate of an
impact from nanotechnology in the
There are some estimates from next 100 years is:
experts, but the uncertainty is
significant. A relative probability 0.8% for infinite threshold,
estimate is a possible first step, 0.01% for infinite impact
comparing nanotechnology solutions
with existing systems where the
probability is better known.
0.01%
0.01%
nn/a
/a n/a
n/a 0.8%
0.8%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Artificial
Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence is the global risk What is possible is to define a number Based on available assessments627
where least is known. Not even those of general factors determining the best current estimate of an
who see the possibility of developing risk. These include Capability and impact from AI in the next 100 years
an AI claim to be able to describe Compatible goals.626 For global is:
what a working AI is in detail, let alone challenges in rapidly evolving areas
provide a description of the sequence where incremental development might 0-10% for infinite threshold,
from where we are today to an AI that not happen and little is known about 0-10% for infinite impact
could result in infinite impact. the sequence, the only way to reduce
risks with possible infinite impacts The reason for 0-10% on both impact
The assumptions for an AI are based might be to ensure focus on these levels is that most experts assume
on the current rapid technological general factors. that the kind of AI capable of impacts
development, but as it is not even beyond the infinite threshold is likely
possible to simulate a simple version The only estimates of probabilities to be one that also can result in an
of AI it is hard to get any data. that exist so far have been made infinite impact. If we succeed it will
by a small group with a significant move beyond control very rapidly.
proportion of people with a passion Due to the significant impact it would
for AI. Compared with many other have if it worked, there is no difference
challenges the possibility of an AI between the two impact levels.
capable of infinite impact can almost
be described as all or nothing. This
is also why the estimates are the 0.01%
0.01%
same for the infinite threshold and the
infinite impact.
nn/a
/a nn/a
/a 0.8%
0.8%
0.01%
0.01% 0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
00013%
.00013%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
Unknown
Consequences
Uncertain risks must be included But we know from history that these Based on available assessments628
in any project addressing low- kinds of events happen over and the best current estimate of an
probability high-impact events. The over again. With rapid technological uncertain risk in the next 100 years is:
way to approach uncertain risks is, by development and increased tensions
definition, uncertain. over coming decades, the magnitude 0.01%
0.01% 5% for infinite threshold,
of the impacts can be assumed to 0.1% for infinite impact
The sequence can only be assessed increase. The probability estimates
on the basis of experience of exist only as best guesses by experts,
unexpected events, so actual data and while it is possible to make
does not exist. the assessments more formal, it is
nn/a
/a nn/a
/a currently the best existing estimates
0.8%
0.8%
that at least provide a preliminary
order of magnitude for these risks.
0.01%
0.01% 0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
00013%
.00013%
0.002%
0.002% 0.1%
0.1%
0.00003%
0.00003% 5%
5%

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
5. Probabilities and uncertainties – an initial overview 0.01%
0.01%
Future
nn/a
/a Badnn/a/a 0.8%
0.8%
Global Governance
As there is no global government, The probability of a bad global Based on available assessments the
global governance today typically governance system will increase the best current estimate of a future bad
involves a range of actors including longer it takes to implement solutions global governance with potentially
states, regional and international to address global challenges. infinite impacts in the next 100 years is:
0.01%
0.01%
organisations. A single organisation When the world experiences 0-10%
0-10%
may nominally be given the lead role significant negative impacts, the Not available for infinite threshold,
on an issue.629 time for reflection will be shorter and Not available for infinite impact
polarisation is likely to increase.
Future bad global governance is
0-10%
0-10%
an important challenge, although To establish a failed governance
00013%
.00013%
it is totally different from the other system on a global level will require
challenges. We should remember that something extraordinary, as nations
at present about two billion people tend to protect their national
live in poverty, and the risks from sovereignty at almost any cost.
global challenges are increasing. No
governance system is perfect, but it What can help in understanding
is possible to improve significantly on possible sequences is an increasing
the current system without increasing amount of data on how complex
the risks. organisations work and the
psychology of organisations that can
0.002%
0.002% create destructive patterns.630 0.1%
0.1%
0.00003%
0.00003% 5%
5%
0.01%
0.01%
1%
1% nn/a
/a nn/a
/a

all parts
all data
small uncertainty
calculations with
calculations with
large uncertainty
most parts
most data
best guesses
some parts
some data
by experts
no estimates
none at all
no data
of the sequence
6. Underlying trends of key importance
6. Underlying trends
of key importance
“Those who do not remember the past

are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santayana
6. Underlying trends of key importance / 6.1 Poverty
To address the global challenges 6.1 Poverty There are reasons to celebrate this
means recognising several development as more people than
underlying trends. These will ever live a life where they do not have
influence the challenges by Global poverty has fallen dramatically to constantly worry about their most
affecting society as a whole as over the last two centuries, and the basic needs. But there are two things
well as more directly affecting the fall has intensified in recent decades, worth remembering:
challenges. Currently most risk raising hopes that poverty, defined
assessments and other studies by the World Bank as an income 1. Poverty could increase again.
related to global challenges below US $1.25 per day, may be 2. Defining poverty is difficult.
neglect the fact that these trends eliminated within the next 50 years.
can have very different outcomes. The Economist even had a cover, in Today very few people assume that
June 2013, with the title “Towards the poverty could increase again. But
The most common mistake is that end of poverty”.631 The World Bank everything from economic crisis and
the most likely development of these has set an interim target of reducing pandemics to climate change and
underlying trends is taken for granted global extreme poverty to 9% of the wars could change that. The situation
as the only possible outcome. world’s population by 2020, which, if after the fall of the Soviet Union
Most of the trends have probability achieved, would mark the first time resulted in increased poverty.634
distributions where low-probability/ the rate has fallen to single digits.632
high-impact possibilities are often The milestone is based on a World Even conservative estimates show
ignored. In this chapter some of Bank economic analysis of global that the percentage of people in
the most important trends, where poverty trends aimed at the goal of poverty by 2030 could range from
the possible outcomes can differ ending extreme poverty by 2030. almost zero to nearly 20%.636
significantly, are described through a
global risk perspective. Reaching 9% in 2020 would mean
an estimated 690m people would
For each of the trends the simple still be living in extreme poverty by
rule based on a risk perspective is: then, 510m fewer in poverty than a
“Aim for the best, but be prepared decade earlier. That would be the
for the worst”. equivalent of half the population
of Africa, or more than double the
population of Indonesia.633
Figure 25: Russian Male Life Expectancy635

Figure 26: Prospects for Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030.637
6.1 Poverty
Even more complicated is the Understanding the relationship The conclusion is that climate
definition of poverty. The level between poverty and global strategies should prepare for
of $1.25 per day is a very rough challenges requires us to develop successful poverty reduction by
indicator and does not say very much strategies that help ensure poverty setting targets and developing
about the situation of the people reduction. Planning means it is solutions that work in a world with low
living life at that level. How desperate important to assume different levels poverty, and should not assume high
are they (important for war/terrorism)? of poverty reduction - for example: levels of poverty. At the same time
What risks do they feel they must For successful poverty reduction, our strategies for pandemics must
take (important for climate change low-carbon solutions are crucial, as assume that poverty reduction could
and ecological collapse as people it is rich people who are the main fail and develop solutions accordingly.
will engage in illegal deforestation)? emitters on the planet because of
Poverty is also important in their unsustainable lifestyles.
pandemics, as reduced income can If poverty reduction is unsuccessful,
result in increased migration and also structures to address a higher
increased hunting of wild animals. likelihood of outbreaks that can turn
into pandemics are required as poor
people tend to live in societies where
they are more likely to get infected
and where often even basic health
service is lacking.
Number of people in poverty, m 1990 2010 2030
China India Sub-Saharan Africa
$ 1.25 $ 1.25 $ 1.25

30 30 30
25 25 25
20 20 20
15 15 15
10 10 10
5 5 5
0 0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mean daily consumption (PPP $) Mean daily consumption (PPP $) Mean daily consumption (PPP $)
Figure 27: Different kinds of poverty - Number of people in poverty638
6.2 Population growth
6.2 Population The high-variant projection depicted The fact that projections can change
in the figure below assumes an extra is clearly demonstrated by the
growth half a child per woman (on average) difference between the current (2012)
compared with the medium variant, Revision, and the 2010 Revision of
Population growth is a trend that implying a world population of 10.9 World Population Prospects. The
has been discussed intensively bn in 2050 and 16.6 bn in 2100.645 latter was published only two years
from a sustainability and risk That is equal to a 133% population earlier and projected world population
perspective since Malthus did his increase in just 86 years . reaching 9.3 bn in 2050 and 10.1 bn
famous projection.639 in 2100 (medium variant).647 This is
The difference between projections almost a 10% difference in the space
A “natural population increase” for 2100, from 10.9 bn people in of two years.
occurs when the birth rate is the medium scenario, to 16.6 bn in
higher than the death rate. While the high scenario, equals the world Current ways to provide the lifestyles
a country’s population growth rate population in 1995. There is also a enjoyed in countries like the UK
depends on this natural increase credible low scenario with 6.8 bn and US today would require 3.5-5
and on migration, global population by 2100.646 A strategic approach planets, while the global population
growth is determined exclusively by must be based on all possible is about 7 bn people.648 Under the
natural increase.640 outcomes. Planning as though the high-variant projection, more than 10
world population will be only 6.8 bn planets would be needed.
Around the world, death rates is not optimistic: it is unscientific
gradually decreased in the late 19th and dangerous. Even to plan for a With other underlying trends,
and the 20th centuries, with those world with 10.9 bn is not strategic technology breakthroughs and
in developing countries plummeting as this would ignore the significant institutional changes can result
after World War II thanks to the spread probability that the world’s population in very rapid changes. Global
of modern medicine which allowed would be much larger. There should population growth cannot change
control of infectious diseases.641 be a plan for a world with 16.6 bn as rapidly. And as it is related
people, combined with a long-term to many factors, including other
According to the 2012 Revision of strategy to ensure a sustainable underlying trends such as income
the official United Nations population population level. levels, education, access to health
estimates and projections, the world services and cultural values that
population of 7.2 billion in mid-2013 It is also important to ensure that are all assumed to be undergoing
is projected to increase by almost more attention is paid to early significant changes over coming
one billion people within twelve warning systems that allow us to decades, population growth over
years, reaching 8.1 bn in 2025, and to influence population development in long time periods is even more
further increase to 9.6 bn in 2050 and a sustainable direction. difficult to estimate.
10.9 bn by 2100.642
These results are based on the

medium-variant projection, which
assumes a decline of fertility for
countries where large families are still
prevalent as well as a slight increase
of fertility in several countries with
fewer than two children per woman
on average.643
The medium projection is still

dramatic as it assumes another four
bn people on the planet, more than a
50% increase in population, equal to
the Earth’s entire population in 1975,
in just 86 years.644
Figure 28: Population of the world, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants
Source: http://esa.un.org/wpp/documentation/pdf/WPP2012_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf, p. xv
6.3 Technological development
6.3 Technological On the other hand there are natural forever. Second, nature itself may
limits that could begin to constrain set limits. We may choose to take
development technological development in more care of the planet, or limits to
two ways. The technology itself materials like rare earths may begin
Technological development since the may hit a barrier. For example, at to slow technology.655 But regardless
industrial revolution has been faster some stage a processor may not of ultimate limits, many exponential
than most experts expected. For continue to become smaller and trends are likely to continue over the
material welfare this has been very faster, as the speed of light and coming decades and will present us
positive; average longevity and health quantum mechanics will limit its with new opportunities as well as
improvements in general have all development.654 There might be other risks in the 21st century, as these
shown dramatic positive development. ways to overcome such boundaries, trends converge in a society with
During the second half of the 20th but no exponential trend can last 20th century institutions.
century global health improved more
than in all previous human history.
Average life expectancy at birth in
low- and middle-income countries
increased from 40 years in 1950 to 65
years in 1998.649
While weapons have become more

deadly the death toll from wars has
actually decreased over time.650 How
big a part technology has played
by creating greater transparency, or
increasing the fear of using weapons
which have become too powerful (for
example nuclear bombs), is disputed.
But most experts agree that
technology has played an important
role.651 This is not the same as saying Figure 29: Moore’s forecast for PV656
that this development will continue. Figure 30: Global ICT development 2000-2013657
Estimating the future development

of technology is very difficult. On 100
the one hand there is evidence that 95.5
technology will continue to accelerate 90 mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions

individuals usign the Internet
at the pace it has achieved so far. fixed-telephone subscriptions
80
Researchers at MIT and the Santa Fe
Institute have found that some widely 70
used formulas for predicting how
rapidly technology will advance — 60
notably, Moore’s and Wright’s Laws 50

— offer superior approximations of
the pace of technological progress.652 40 40.4
Experts like Ray Kurzweil, who was

30
recently hired by Google, is one of
Per 100 inhabitants
those who think that most people 20

do not understand the implications 15.8
of exponential growth in the area 10

of technology and the results it
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
generates in price, capacity and
overall transformation of society.653 Global ITC developments, 2000-2014*
6.3 Technological development / 6.4 Demographic changes
How technological development can 6.4 Demographic In 2000 there were an estimated
be supported in order to increase 180,000 centenarians globally. By
opportunities and reduce risks will be
changes 2050 they are projected to number
increasingly important to discuss. 3.2 m, an increase of about eighteen
The world’s population is undergoing times.659
As technology in many areas is a massive demographic shift. Fertility
developing exponentially, it is rates have fallen and the number of Within the more developed regions,
important to analyse its development children has stopped growing. It is a Japan, in particular, will experience
very carefully. The potential for historic shift. a remarkable increase in the number
technology to help solve existing and of centenarians over the next half
future global challenges is almost Those who are 80 or more now make century, from fewer than 13,000
limitless. And so unfortunately is its up only slightly more than 1% of the in 2000 to almost 1 m in 2050. By
potential to accelerate existing risks total human population. This proportion then Japan is expected to have by
and create new ones. Too many is projected to increase almost fourfold far the world’s largest number and
initiatives today focus on only one over the next 50 years, to reach 4.1% proportion of centenarians, nearly
side of technology, either the positive in 2050. Currently, only one country, 1% of its population.660
or the negative. Acknowledging both Sweden, has more than 5% in this
sides is necessary in order to ensure age group. By 2050 the over-80s are The stagnating and ageing
a strategic response. projected to number almost 379 m population in many OECD countries
people globally, about 5.5 times as and China will put pressure on
many as in 2000 (69 m). In 1950, the current systems, which were not
over-80s numbered under 14 m. designed to deal with a situation
of ageing and often shrinking
Although the proportion of people who populations in many parts of the
live beyond 100 is still very small, their world, while the populations in other
number is growing rapidly. parts of the world are rapidly growing.
2050 379.0
2025 153.4
2000 69.2
1975 31.4
1950 13.8
population aged 80 or over: World, 1950-2050 millions
Figure 24: Population aged 80 or over661
7. Possible ways forward
7. Possible ways
forward
“Our very survival depends

on our ability to stay awake,
to adjust to new ideas,
to remain vigilant and to face
the challenge of change.”
Martin Luther King Jr.
1.
To better address global challenges
with a potentially infinite impact, Global challenges
both immediate action and long- leadership networks
term work are needed. Below are
2.
ten areas that could help mitigate
immediate threats while also Better quality risk
contributing to a future global assessment for
governance system capable of
addressing global challenges with
global challenges
infinite impacts. For all these areas
3. Development of
more research is needed.
4. Encouraging
visualisation of
complex systems
5. Highlighting
early movers

7. Increasing
the focus on
the probability
of extreme events
8. Encouraging
9. Establishing
a Global Risk and
to guide governance

of establishing a
leadership networks
2.
The long-term goal Better
and democratic global

needs to quality
the establishment ofassessment
be riskinfinite impacts, and could work
a transparent for on a roadmap for a future global
global challengesgovernance system that can address
governance
Four groups are of particular
importance: experts in finance,
experts in security policy, lawyers
system that can address global existing and new global challenges. with knowledge of global risks and
3. Development of
challenges with infinite impacts. To international law, and finally a group
support this leadership,
early networks
warningcan systems
The networks should be as consisting of clusters of stakeholders
be established involving interested transparent and inclusive as possible, with solutions that can reduce the
4.
governments, major companies, especially as global collaboration is risks. Leadership networks that
Encouraging
NGOs, researchers and other relevant needed. The use of new collaboration include participants from all four
stakeholders. Thesevisualisation
networks could of tools and principles, such as wiki- groups are of particular interest.
complex systemsprocesses and creative commons,
1.
develop strategies to address multiple
Global
challenges with potentially challenges should be encouraged.
5.
leadership networks
Highlighting
early movers
2. Better quality risk
6.
assessment
Including thefor
whole
global challenges
3.
7.
Development of
There is currently no
coordination when the
Increasing
global
early warning
focus
it comes
methodology development could
on systems
be accelerated and improved, as
Institutions and universities
engaged in developing new
to risk assessmentsthe probability the possibility of learning from
of global methodologies to assess global
4.
challenges. DifferentEncouraging
ofexperts
extreme
visualisation
use events different areas would increase. Such
of a process could also encourage
risks have a particular responsibility
1.
different methodologies, data for developing and refining risk
8.
and ways to present Global
complex
Encouraging challenges
systemsincreased investments in methodology
their results, assessments for global challenges.
appropriatenetworks
leadership
making it very difficult to compare language
development based on the latest
5.
the risk assessments tothat exist.
describe innovations,
extreme risks such as systems-
Highlighting
2. Better
By establishing a process quality
that
early movers riskforecasting approaches.
9.
assessment
coordinates and encourages
Establishing
risk for
6.
assessments of globalglobal challenges
challenges,
a Global Risk
Including and
the whole
Opportunitydistribution
probability Indicator
3. Development
to guide governance of
7.
early warning
Increasing systems
10.
the focusthe onpossibility
4.
Explore
Encouraging
the probability
of establishing a “big data”.662 These opportunities
The rapid technological development be assumed to increase or decrease
has many benefits,ofvisualisation
butextreme
Global of include both
also Risk events
Organisation (GRO)
new ways of collecting global risks. Such a system would
complex
challenges, as risks can rapidly systems large amounts of high-quality data, allow more time to develop strategies
8.
become very seriousEncouraging
5.
and reach infinite
Highlighting language
appropriate
thresholds. To develop early
early
systems that can gather
to
warning
andmovers
processextreme
describe
and new ways to analyse them.
Earlyrisks
warning systems should be
to mitigate risks and turn global
challenges into opportunities for
innovation and collaboration.
data transparently is therefore of the built to ensure that data is collected
6.
9.
utmost importance. Technological and analysed in ways that can be The warning system would require
progress, from smart
Including
Establishing
phones and
the whole useful for multiple global challenges. significant research into infinitey
probability
a Global
sensors to significant processing
distribution
Risk andThe warnings should not only include thresholds. Both traditional as well as
Opportunity
allows for totallyIndicator
7.
power and networks, changes in the physical world, more recent methodologies based on
Increasing
to
new ways of establishingguide governance
early warning but also indicate when decisions, understanding of complex systems
systems based on the focus on
so-called investments and legal changes can should be encouraged.
10.
the probability
Explore the possibility
of establishing
of extreme eventsa
8.
178
Encouraging
Global Challenges – Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation – The case for a new category of risks

2. assessment for
global challenges 7. Possible ways forward
3. Development of
4. Encouraging
visualisation of
complex systems
5.
leadership
Highlighting
The global challenges depend on
networks
New visualisation tools could
early movers
2.
a very complex ecosystem and help make complex systems easier
social system. Better quality riskto understand and also help the
6.
assessment
Including thefor
whole
communication of challenges
global
With a global economic challenges
and and opportunities.663
technological system, which both
3.
7.
helps and creates Development
Increasing of Visualisation tools are needed both
risks that are
early
increasingly interconnected warning
the focus and
on systems
for decision makers to highlight the
difficult to understand, there is a consequences of different strategies
the probability and for citizens to increase their basic
4.
challenge to understand
the challenges.
Encouraging
of extreme eventsunderstanding of infinite impacts.
visualisation of
1.
8.
Global
complex
Encouraging
leadership
challenges
systems
appropriatenetworkslanguage
5.
2.
to describe
Highlighting
Better
early moversquality
extreme
risk
risks
9.
assessment
Establishing for
6.
global
a Global
Including challenges
Risk andIn particular, leadership with a focus
the whole
Governments, companies,
Opportunity
probability Indicator
distribution
3.
organisations and networks working
Development
to guide of on multiple global challenges and the
governance
7.
on global challenges should relationship between them should be
early warning
Increasing
increase their efforts to reward
systems
highlighted, as very little is being done
10.
the focus
Explore onpossibility
the
4.
leadership when they find it. Major in this area.
news outlets can alsoEncouraging
the probability
of establishing a
report when
visualisation
significant positiveof extreme
Global
steps areRisk
taken of
events
Organisation (GRO)
complex systems
to reduce global risks with potential
8.
infinite impacts. Encouraging
5. Highlightinglanguage
appropriate
early
to movers
describe extreme risks
6.
Establishing
aprobability
Global Risk distribution
and
7.
Governments, major to
the
guide governance
Increasing
companies,
focus
NGOs, researchers and other on
Current lack of data and of scientific
studies regarding low-probability
Tables, graphs and key conclusions
in reports related to global challenges
10.
relevant stakeholderstheshould
probability
Explore the possibility
address high-impact outcomes in many areas should, when possible, include the
of extreme events
of establishing a should not be used as an excuse to
the whole probability distribution, whole probability distribution.664
Globalhigh-
including low-probability Risk Organisation
ignore the(GRO)
probability distribution. This
8.
or obscured.
Encouraging
impact scenarios. This would ensure
that serious risks are not disregarded
to describe extreme
is especially important when many of
the global challenges have a very long
risks
and fat “tail”.
9. Establishing
a Global Risk and
to guide governance

of establishing a
Global
Global Challenges – Twelve Risk
risks that Organisation
threaten (GRO)
human civilisation – The case for a new category of risks 179
1.
5. leadership networks
Highlighting
early movers
2.
6.
Better quality risk
assessment
Including thefor
global
whole
challenges
3.
7. Increasing of
Development
the focus
early warning
the probability
on systems
4. of extreme events
Encouraging
visualisation of
8. Encouraging
When the impact iscomplex
appropriate
enough only to reveal the whole
systemsStakeholders should include the most
infinite it is not
language
extreme impacts in all relevant work.
The use of methodologies and
approaches from security policy
5.
to describe
Highlighting
probability distribution. It is important extreme
If therisks
probability of infinite impacts and the financial sector that focus
early
also to avoid confusing movers
uncertain risk increases instead of decreasing on extreme events could be used to
9.
with low risk. Establishing because of new scientific findings or develop strategies for rapid action
6. a Global Risk and

Including the whole lack of action, strategies should be beyond the incremental approaches
Opportunity
Infinite impacts render many
probability of the Indicator
prepared to allow more decisive action.
distribution that dominate today.
traditional models fortorisk
guide governance
management
7.
almost meaningless. Monetary
Increasing
10.
calculations are often useless, and
the focus
Explore
discounting is not always onpossibility
the
advisable.
the probability a
of establishing
of extreme
Global Riskevents
Organisation (GRO)
8. Encouraging
9.
The IPCC uses specific and defined Average: 2-9 dead and/or 10-49
Establishing
Often words like “unlikely”, “negligible” language in its reports to describe seriously injured
a Global
and “insignificant” are Risk anddifferent probabilities and thus ensure
used to describe
Opportunity
a risk when the probability Indicator
is considered clarity, but taken out of context and Large: 10-49 dead and/or 50-100
to guide
low. What is low is however relative; governancewithout supporting definitions this seriously injured
a low probability in one area can be language can be misleading.

extremely high in another. If I attend one Very large: >50 dead and/or >100
of ten lectures - 10%of- people might say a For example, the term “very unlikely”
establishing seriously injured
there is a low probability that I will be is used by the IPCC to describe a
there. But if someone says that a new probability of between 0-10%,665 but The use of terms that can be
aircraft crashes once in every ten flights, out of context its use could easily be interpreted as having normative
most people will say that is an extremely understood as a normative judgement values to explain probability is
high probability and will be likely to suggesting that we do not need to problematic and in future all bodies,
assume it is an early prototype that is engage with the risk. including the IPCC, should explore
nowhere close to commercial success. the possibility of using only numbers
The language of the IPCC can be in external communications, at least
A major problem is that probabilities compared with that used in the in the summary for policy makers, to
that ought to be seen as very high for Swedish National Risk Assessment help everyone understand the reality
risks with potentially infinite impact are (SNRA).666 The scale of impact is of the situation.
described in a way that makes them not defined for the IPCC, but for the
sound less urgent than they are - by the Swedish Assessment it is: Stakeholders should explore
media, business, politicians and even ways to use language that better
by scientists. Very small: no deaths or communicates how serious extreme
serious injuries risks are in the case of climate
One example is how probabilities are change, and where possible compare
described by the Intergovernmental Small: One dead and/or 1-9 this with other risk areas to help
Panel on Climate Change. seriously injured illustrate the situation.
IPCC Term SNRA Term Likelihood of the Likelihood of the

Outcome: IPCC Outcome: SNRA
Very certainly Very high 99-100% probability > 20% [more than once
every 5 years]
Very likely 90-100% probability
Likely 66-100% probability
About as likely as not 33-66% probability
Unlikely
High 20%-2% [Between once

every 5 years and once
every 50 years]
Very unlikely Average 0-10% probability 2%-0.02% [Between once

every 50 years and once
every 500 years]
Exceptionally unlikely 0-1% probability
Low 0.02%-0.002% [Between

once every 500 years and
once every 5000 years]
Very low < 0.002% [Less than once

every 5000 years]
Figure 31: Comparing the probability scale in the Swedish National Risk Assessment667 and the Likelihood Scale used by the IPCC668
3. early warning systems
of extreme events
4. Encouraging
8. Encouragingof
visualisation
appropriate
complex language
systems
5.
9.
Highlighting
Establishing
early movers
a Global Risk and
to guide governance
10.
7.
provide updated and
Explore
Increasing
No mechanisms currently
of
existthe
to possibility
establishing
comprehensive
the focus on
Global
global risk assessments
a
companies, influence the probability
of different impacts and outcomes.
for Risk Organisation (GRO)
has responsibility for increasing and
decreasing the risk; who will suffer its
consequences, and who will benefit.
the probability
phenomena capable of threatening
of extreme eventsEstablishing a global risk indicator,
human civilisation. with sub-indicators for different areas, Stakeholders should explore the
8.
as part of the UN system would help establishment of a global risk
Encouraging
With many unsustainable trends create a better understanding of indicator that will help guide priorities
appropriate
converging, it is crucial that leaderslanguage
extreme global risks individually and and inform society about different
to describe
are able to act before it is too late extreme risks
of their interconnection, and it should risks, and about the relationship
and to assess how actions, such as track both. An important feature between them.
9. Establishing
political decisions or investments by
a Global Risk and
would be its ability to illustrate who
to guide governance

of establishing a
There is currently no international or In addition, and probably equally

global body that is coordinating work important, is the fact that a body set up
on global risks with a potentially infinite to deal with such challenges could also
impact. The following areas would ensure that the links between them
benefit from global coordination: could be better understood.
– Probability estimations A first step could be to establish

– Early warning systems, a centre for global risks and
– Global coordination of solutions opportunities,669 focusing initially
– Legal development only on knowledge-gathering and
development of proposals, and with no
mandate to implement any solutions.
Endnotes
Endnotes
1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100915696 Ridley cherrypicks data and tends to avoid the 27
E.g. HBR blog about “black swans”: http://blogs.
2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risks probability that we will see significant warming. hbr.org/2010/09/the-competing-black-swans-of-s/
3
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/risk http://www.mattridley.co.uk/blog/the-probable-net- and The Guardian about “perfect storms” http://www.
benefits-of-climate-change-till-2080.aspxhttp://www. theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/
4
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_density_
rationaloptimist.com/ apr/03/ipcc-un-climate-change-perfect-storm-zombie-
function
15
Climate Impacts: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ oil
5
Dickson, David CM. Insurance risk and ruin.
Pandemics: http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/
28
http://www.economist.com/node/18744401
Cambridge University Press 2005.
fischhoff/AF-GPH.pdf 29
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/living_in_the_
http://books.google.se/
Nuclear war: http://www.ippnw.org/nuclear-famine.html anthropocene_toward_a_new_global_ethos/2363/
books?id=9zPOMMqJXcUC&printsec
16
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2003/september24/
30
http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html
=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&redir_
esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false tellerobit-924.html 31
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjZyOTES6iQ
6
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/ http://www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/doe/lanl/
17 32
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_tail
section3/eda352.htm docs1/00329010.pdf 33
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human
7
A recent example is IPCC WGII Summary for policy
18
While the LA-602 document is relatively well-known, 34
Mammals have an average species lifespan from
makers. In this report http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/ IPCC its final paragraph is often forgotten. The scientists origin to extinction of about 1 million years, but that
acknowledges the need to include low-probability high- say: “However, the complexity of the argument and the will not necessarily apply to humans today because of
impact scenarios: “assessment of the widest possible absence of satisfactory experimental foundations makes factors like local climate change or new species in the
range of potential impacts, including low-probability further work on the subject highly desirable.” same ecological niche. The dinosaurs were around for
outcomes with large consequences, is central to
19
Since Teller’s calculations the science has developed 135 million years and if we are intelligent, there are good
understanding the benefits and trade-offs of alternative and is now clear that the main nuclear threat that chances that we could live for much longer.
risk management actions.” Yet nothing is included in the potentially could threaten human civilisation is a full 35
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_embryogenesis
report about impacts above 4 degrees. nuclar war and the consequenses that this could result in 36
These four points are slightly rewritten versions of a
8
As an infinite impact by definition can’t have from effects like a nuclear winter. list of Nick Bostrom’s in the text “Existential Risks:
happened before, models are needed.
20
For an overview of positive and negative aspects Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related
9
Making Sense of Uncertainty: Why uncertainty is part of nanotechnology see for example Drexler, Eric and Hazards” http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.
of science http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Media/SAS012- Pamlin, Dennis (2013): “Nano-solutions for the 21st html. Note that these four points were originally
MakingSenseofUncertainty.pdf century. Unleashing the fourth technological revolution”
developed for “existential risks”, those that threaten the
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/
Pinker, Steven. The better angels of our nature: The
10
extinction of intelligent life originating on Earth or the
academic/201310Nano_Solutions.pdf
decline of violence in history and its causes. Penguin UK, permanent destruction of its potential for desirable future
2011.
21
This is true for utopias ranging from Plato’s Republic, development.
via Thomas More’s book Utopia, to Edward Bellamy’s
Giddens, Anthony. “Risk and responsibility.” The
11 37
Posner, Richard A. Catastrophe: Risk and Response.
Looking Backward and William Morris’ News from
modern law review 62.1 (1999): 1-10. Oxford University Press, 2004,
Nowhere.
12
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/01/09/evolutionary- 38
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life
22
See next chapter for the methodology.
psychology-of-climate-change/ http://yosemite.epa.gov/EE%5Cepa%5Ceed.nsf/
39
23
A list of organisations and studies that discuss
http://www-ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/ webpages/MortalityRiskValuation.html
challenges that threaten human civilisation can be found
book/chapters/frankenhaeuser.html 40
Posner, Richard A. Catastrophe: risk and response.
here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_
“The challenge now is to help people extend their Oxford University Press, 2004. Loc 2363
risks
attachments, their loyalties, and their engagement, to 41
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/
24
The number two billion was established during the
include people outside their own narrow circle, their www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm
workshop in Oxford and is not an exact number. Further
own country, their own imminent future. This global 42
William Nordhaus , The Stern Review on the
research is needed to establish a better understanding
reorientation is a prerequisite for changing the present Economics of Climate Change http://www.econ.yale.
of thresholds that can result in an infinite impact,
fatal course of development.” edu/~nordhaus/homepage/stern_050307.pdf
depending on what challenge resulted in the two billion
13
http://www-ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/ 43
http://www.res.org.uk/view/art3Apr08Features.html
impact and how the estimate for an infinite impact was
book/chapters/frankenhaeuser.html
assumed to be between 0.01% and 10%. Nordhaus, William D. The Climate Casino: Risk,
44
14
Two of the most famous “optimists”, who tend to Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World. Yale
25
The definition is based on the definition used by
look at only the parts of the probability distribution University Press, 2013. Loc 2895
Jared Diamond: http://www.jareddiamond.org/Jared_
that support their opinion, are the Danish writer Bjorn
Diamond/Collapse.html 45
Nordhaus, William D. The Climate Casino: Risk,
Lomborg and the British journalist Matt Ridley. While 26
For examples see the recently established Centre Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World. Yale
scientists in the areas he writes about constantly refute
for Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge. It is an University Press, 2013. Loc 2895
Lomborg, his message of optimism is well received by
interdisciplinary research centre focused on the study 46
Nordhaus, William D. The Climate Casino: Risk,
many policy makers and business leaders. https://www.
of human extinction-level risks that may emerge from Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World. Yale
ma.utexas.edu/users/davis/375/reading/sciam.pdf
technological advance University Press, 2013. Loc 3176
Endnotes
47
Timothy M. Lenton, Juan-Carlos Ciscar: Integrating criteria%20-%20when%20is%20low%20enough%20 http://gcrinstitute.org/research/
tipping points into climate impact assessments. Springer good%20enough%20-%20saudi.pdf Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Netherlands 2013-04-01 http://link.springer.com/ 64
SO 16732-1, Fire Safety Engineering – Guidance http://www.idsa.in/topics
article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0572-8 on Fire Risk Assessment, International Organization for International Risk Governance Council
48
Carl Sagan use 10 million years in: Sagan, Carl Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2012.
http://www.irgc.org/issues/
(1983). “Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some 65
An example of a concept that helped increase the
Lifeboat Foundation
policy implications”. Foreign Affairs 62: 275, and The focus on an important category is Genocide, which was
Blackwell’s Concise Encyclopedia of Ecology and other http://lifeboat.com/ex/programs
introduced by Raphael Lemkin. http://en.wikipedia.org/
sources provide an estimate of about 1 million years wiki/Genocide Nuclear Threat Initiative
for mammals. http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/ 66
E.g. Vinso, Joseph D. “A Determination of the Risk http://www.nti.org/
productCd-0632048727.html of Ruin.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Saving Humanity from Homo Sapiens
49
One billion years is used by Bruce E. Tonn in the 14.01 (1979): 77-100. http://shfhs.org/whatarexrisks.html
paper Obligations to future generations and acceptable E.g. Reed, Christina. Earth Science: Decade by
67
Skoll Global Threats Fund
risks of human extinction: “ Futures 41.7 (2009): 427- Decade. Infobase Publishing, 2009. http://www.skollglobalthreats.org/
435. 68
Culpitt, Ian. Social policy and risk. Sage, 1999. Stimson Center
50
In Japan in Japan the life expectancy at age zero, that 69
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond http://www.stimson.org/programs/
is, at birth (LEB), is 83 years. In 2010 the world LEB was 70
The methodology applied in this study has been Risk Response Network
67.2.
developed by Dennis Pamlin from Global Challenges http://forumblog.org/communities/risk-response-
51
This is based on a low estimate for the planet’s
Foundation and Stuart Armstrong, James Martin network/
population as far out as current projections are made,
Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute at the
2100. http://esa.un.org/wpp/ Looking further into the World Economic Forum
University of Oxford together with Seth Baum, Executive
far future, beyond 500 years, it is likely that humanity http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2014-
Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and
will have expanded into space and have a much larger report
affiliate researcher at the Center for Research on
population. Tower Watson
Environmental Decisions, Columbia University.
Posner, Richard A. Catastrophe: Risk and Response.
52
http://www.towerswatson.com/en/Insights/IC-Types/
71
The literature overview is included as Appendix 1.
Oxford University Press, 2004, Loc 2378 Survey-Research-Results/2013/10/Extreme-risks-2013
72
http://gcrinstitute.org/people/
53
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/ 84
http://www.towerswatson.com/en/Insights/IC-Types/
73
http://cred.columbia.edu/about-cred/people/
Herschel/How_many_stars_are_there_in_the_Universe? Survey-Research-Results/2013/10/Extreme-risks-2013
affiliated-researchers/sethbaum/
54
http://www.existential-risk.org/concept.pdf 85
Page 50 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_
74
http://wokinfo.com/
55
McSharry, Patrick E., and David Orrell (2009). A GlobalRisks_Report_2014.pdf
75
http://scholar.google.com
Systems Approach to Forecasting. FORESIGHT: 86
Page 50 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_
The International Journal of Applied Forecasting,
76
See Appendix 1 for the full overview.
GlobalRisks_Report_2014.pdf
referring to Wolfram, Stephen (2002):A new kind 77
http://highlycited.com/ 87
http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2014-
of science, V Wolfram media. http://www.irgc. 78
Specifically, publications selected met one or more report
org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/McSharry- of the following criteria, and were more likely to be 88
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/
OrrellMcSharry2009foresight.pdf selected if they met multiple criteria: (1) published in a
pressreleases/2011/november/name,20318,en.html
56
From A Systems Approach to Forecasting” by peer-reviewed journal or academic press; (2) authored
by scholars of established distinction; (3) published in http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-
David Orrell and Patrick McSharry, http://www.
an authoritative popular media outlet; (4) authored by wg3-chapter12.pdf
irgc.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/McSharry-
OrrellMcSharry2009foresight.pdf journalists or other non-academic writers of established
89
Wolfe, Nathan. The viral storm: the dawn of a new
distinction; (5) highly cited by other scholars; (6) thorough pandemic age. Macmillan, 2011.
referring to Wolfram, S. (2002). A New Kind of Science.
https://www.wolframscience.com/ in presentation and analysis. 90
This includes any research that indicates the
79
http://www.existential-risk.org/concept.pdf probabilities are much lower than first believed.
57
A possible infinite threshold could be compared with
the two events that are often cited as the world’s worst 80
Climate change is a good example. Very little is done
91
For a list of other overviews please see Annex 1
wars and anthropogenic disasters: the second world on the infinite impacts where global warming would 92
See Podsiadlowski, Ph, et al. “The rates of
war, with 40-71 million dead (1.7-3.1% of the world’s result in an average temperature rise of 6°C or more. hypernovae and gamma-ray bursts: implications for their
population) and the Mongol Conquests, 1206-1368, with 81
The list of organisations is included as Appendix 2. progenitors.” The Astrophysical Journal Letters 607.1
30 million dead (7.5% of the global total). See: http:// 82
http://gcrinstitute.org/organization-directory/ (2004).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_ 83
The 19 organisations are:
93
See Coleman, Sidney, and Frank De Luccia.
disasters_by_death_toll “Gravitational effects on and of vacuum decay.” Physical
Brookings
58
The number two billion was established during Review D 21.12 (1980): 3305-3315.
http://www.brookings.edu/research#topics/
workshops arranged during the process and is not an 94
See Iliopoulos, John, et al. “Study of potentially
exact number. Further research is needed to establish a Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists dangerous events during heavy-ion collisions at the LHC:
better understanding of thresholds that can result in an http://thebulletin.org/ report of the LHC safety study group.” Vol. 1. CERN
infinite impact. The number of people dead is only one CSER (2003). http://194.109.159.7/cern/20101116222315/
factor and different global risks are likley to have very http://cser.org/emerging-risks-from-technology/ cdsweb.cern.ch/record/613175/files/p1.pdf
different thresholds. Center for International Security and Cooperation 95
See for instance “Solar storm Risk to the North
HSE 2001. Reducing Risks, Protecting People –
59
http://cisac.stanford.edu/ American electric grid“, Lloyds (2013).
HSE’s Decision-Making Process, 2001. 96
See Bennett, Oliver. “Cultural pessimism: Narratives
Club of Rome
http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/r2p2.pdf of decline in the postmodern world.” Edinburgh
http://www.clubofrome.org/
60
Bedford, Paul, Millard, Stephen and Jing Yang, University Press (2001).
Council on Foreign Relations
Assessing operational risk in CHAPS Sterling: a 97
See Klare, Michael T. “Resource wars: The new
http://www.cfr.org/issue/
simulation approach (2004). landscape of global conflict.” Macmillan (2001).
Federation of American Scientists
61
SO 16732-1, Fire Safety Engineering – Guidance 98
See for instance the genocides listed in White,
on Fire Risk Assessment, International Organization for http://www.fas.org/programs Matthew “Atrocitology: Humanity’s 100 Deadliest
Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2012. Future of Humanity Institute Achievements.” Canongate Books (2011).
62
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALARP http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/research/research-areas/ 99
See for instance the exponents on different power
63
http://www.risktec.co.uk/media/43520/risk%20 Global Catastrophic Risk Institute laws of natural and other disasters in Hanson, Robin.
Endnotes
“Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction.” Nick Bostrom & Milan Cirkovic Eds.(Oxford University event.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18.7 (2003): 358-
Global Catastrophic Risks 1 (2008). Press, 2008) Global Catastrophic Risks. 365.
100
See the damage and impacts listed in Carr, Jeffrey. Martin Rees, “Our final century”, Random House, 2003. 130
See Shepherd, J. G.: “Geoengineering the climate:
“Inside cyber warfare: Mapping the cyber underworld.” Martin, James, 2007. The Meaning of the 21st Century. science, governance and uncertainty.” Royal Society,
O’Reilly Media, Inc. (2011). http://www.amazon. New York: Riverhead Penguin. (2009).
co.uk/Inside-Cyber-Warfare-Mapping-Underworld/ Posner, Richard, 2004. Catastrophe: Risk and Response. 131
See Robock, Alan, et al: “Benefits, risks, and costs of
dp/1449310044 Oxford: Oxford University Press. stratospheric geoengineering.” Geophysical Research
101
See the medium estimate in United Nations. Dept. 112
See appendix 2 for participants at workshops Letters 36.19 (2009).
of Economic and Social Affairs. “World Population 113
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change
132
See Brovkin, Victor, et al.: “Geoengineering climate by
to 2300.” New York: United Nations, Department of stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability
114
See the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.
Economic and Social Affairs, (2004). https://www. to technological failure.” Climatic Change 92.3-4 (2009):
See Chateld, Chris. “Model uncertainty, data mining
115
un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/ 243-259.
and statistical inference.” JR Statist. Soc. A 158 (1995):
WorldPop2300final.pdf 133
See Baum, Seth D., Timothy M. Maher Jr, and
419-466, and for climate change models specifically,
See the article “Delayed biological recovery from
102
Jacob Haqq-Misra.: “Double catastrophe: intermittent
see Pindyck, Robert S. “Climate Change Policy: What
extinctions throughout the fossil record” by James W. stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal
do the models tell us?“ No. w19244. National Bureau of
Kirchner & Anne Weil in Nature: http://seismo.berkeley. collapse.” Environment Systems & Decisions (2013):
Economic Research (2013).
edu/~kirchner/reprints/2000_34_delayed_recovery.pdf 1-13.
116
See Stern, Nicholas. “The structure of economic
Attractor: a set of physical properties towards which a
103 134
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140225/
modeling of the potential impacts of climate change:
system tends to evolve. Strange attractor: a complicated ncomms4304/full/ncomms4304.html
grafting gross underestimation of risk onto already
set with a fractal structure. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ http://www.geomar.de/en/news/article/climate-
narrow science models.” Journal of Economic Literature
Attractor engineering-geringes-potential-grosse-nebenwirkungen/
51.3 (2013): 838-859.
http://www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/attractors.html 135
See Tetlock, Philip E.: “Expert political judgment: How
117
See Weitzman, Martin L. “Tail-Hedge Discounting
104
Folke, C., S. R. Carpenter, B. Walker, M. Scheffer, and the Social Cost of Carbon.” Journal of Economic good is it? How can we know?” Princeton University
T. Chapin, and J. Rockström. 2010. Resilience Literature 51.3 (2013): 873-882. Press (2005).
thinking: integrating resilience, adaptability and 136
See the Carbon Tracker Initiative report: “Unburnable
See Bodman, Roger W., Peter J. Rayner, and David J.
118
transformability. Ecology and Society 15(4): 20. [online] carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets.”
Karoly. “Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced
URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss4/
using carbon cycle and climate observations.” Nature 137
These figures are broadly in line with those of
art20/
Climate Change (2013). Meinshausen, Malte, et al.: “Greenhouse-gas emission
105
We define use Jared Diamond's definition of targets for limiting global warming to 2°C.” Nature
119
Some of the severe consequences of this are
collapse for ”end of civilisation”, but focus only on 458.7242 (2009): 1158-1162.
explored in the World Bank report “Turn Down The Heat:
global impacts, so the definiton is ”A drastic decrease in
why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided“ (2012). 138
See for instance the Scientific American report: “400
human population size and/or political/economic/social 120
See Lynas, Mark. “Six degrees: Our future on a hotter PPM: Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere Reaches
complexity, globally for an extended time.” http://www.
planet.” HarperCollins UK (2008), also summarised by Prehistoric Levels.”
jareddiamond.org/Jared_Diamond/Collapse.html
its author in a Guardian article “Six steps to hell,” and 139
See Lüthi, Dieter, et al.: “High-resolution carbon
See Korhonen, Jouni, and Thomas P. Seager.
106
Schneider, Stephen. “The worst-case scenario.” Nature dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years
“Beyond eco‐efficiency: a resilience perspective.”
458.7242 (2009): 1104-1105. before present.” Nature 453.7193 (2008): 379-382.
Business Strategy and the Environment 17.7 (2008): 411- 121
See Zimov, Sergey A., Edward AG Schuur, and F. 140
See the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report.
419.
Stuart Chapin III. “Permafrost and the global carbon See the Independent report “China agrees to impose
141
Maher, Timothy M., and Seth D. Baum. “Adaptation
107
budget.” Science 312.5780 (2006): 1612-1613. carbon targets by 2016.”
to and recovery from global catastrophe.” Sustainability 122
See Malhi, Yadvinder, et al. “Exploring the likelihood 142
See the UN Millennium Development Goal database
5.4 (2013): 1461-1479.
and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback “Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), thousand metric tons
108
Such as the Svalbard Global Seed Vault.
of the Amazon rainforest.” Proceedings of the National of CO2 (CDIAC).”
109
The fall of the Roman Empire, for instance, resulted Academy of Sciences 106.49 (2009): 20610-20615. 143
See the announcement by the Chinese Bureau of
in the loss of many technologies and techniques:
There are arguments that climate change is
123
Meteorology: “National Low Carbon Day logo and
Aiyar, Shekhar, Carl-Johan Dalgaard, and Omer Moav.
structurally unsuited to treaty-based emissions curbs; slogan officially announced.”
“Technological progress and regress in pre-industrial
see Barrett, Scott. “Climate treaties and approaching 144
See the Warsaw Climate Change Conference Press
times.” Journal of Economic Growth 13.2 (2008): 125-
catastrophes.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Release “UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw
144.
Management (2013). keeps governments on a track towards 2015 climate
110
See Ćirković, Milan M., Anders Sandberg, and Nick 124
The World Bank has estimated that the cost of agreement.”
Bostrom. “Anthropic shadow: Observation selection
adapting to 2°C climate change would be of the order of 145
See the UNFCCC’s “Private Sector Initiative -
effects and human extinction risks.” Risk analysis 30.10
$70-100 billion a year (source: Economics of Adaptation database of actions on adaptation.”
(2010): 1495-1506.
to Climate Change, World Bank).
111
Organisations working with global challenges
146
See Buchanan, James M.: “Externality.” Economica
See Lynas, Mark. “Six degrees: Our future on a hotter
125
29.116 (1962): 371-384.
included in the process where challenges were selected.
planet.” HarperCollins UK (2008), also summarised by its
Below: example of organisations where information was 147
See the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.
author in a Guardian article “Six steps to hell.”
gathered from, in alphabetical order: See the Global Challenge Foundation’s explanation
148
126
See for instance the open letter from the Partnership
http://cass.cssn.cn/ “About the Global Risk and Opportunity Indicator.”
for a Secure America: “Thirty-Eight Leading U.S. National
http://www.cfr.org 149
Security Experts Urge Action on International Climate
http://cser.org Release “UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw
Change Initiatives“ (2013).
keeps governments on a track towards 2015 climate
http://www.thebulletin.org 127
See Weiss, Harvey, and Raymond Bradley; “What
agreement.”
http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk drives societal collapse?“ The Anthropology of Climate 150
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_good
http://www.sipri.org Change: An Historical Reader (2013): 151-154.
See Feldman, Allan M., and A. M. Feldman.: “Welfare
151
http://www.skollglobalthreats.org
128
See Patz, Jonathan A., et al.; “Global climate change
economics and social choice theory.” Boston: Martinus
http://www.stockholmresilience.org and emerging infectious diseases.” JAMA: the journal
Nijhoff (1980).
of the American Medical Association 275.3 (1996): 217-
http://www.un.org/en/sc/ 152
223.
http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-risks Release “UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw
See Benton, Michael J., and Richard J. Twitchett.
129
Examples of relevant literature: keeps governments on a track towards 2015 climate
“How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction
Endnotes
agreement.” 105.14 (2008): 5307-5312. Congress, 2010.

153
“The so-called “Warsaw International Mechanism Though some have argued for a significant climate
173 191
See Bennett, Bruce W., and Jennifer Lind.: “The
for Loss and Damage” will from next year commit effect of the nuclear explosions themselves, see Fujii, Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and
developed nations to provide expertise and potentially Yoshiaki.: “The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions Requirements.” International Security 36.2 (2011): 84-
aid to countries hit by climate-related impacts. [...] on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th 119.
However, the vague wording fell short of the kind of century.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial 192
Even the 1968 capture by North Korea of the USS
detailed commitments on additional funding and the Physics 73.5 (2011): 643-652. Pueblo did not reignite conflict (see Armbrister, Trevor.:
commitment to compensation that many developing 174
There is (fortunately) very little empirical evidence “A Matter of Accountability: The True Story of the Pueblo
nations had been seeking.” (source: Business Green: on the impact of nuclear bombs on cities. Hiroshima Affair.” Globe Pequot, 2004).
“COP 19: Warsaw climate deal finalised as deadlock suffered a firestorm, while Nagasaki did not – and both 193
See the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
broken“). cities and nuclear weapons are very different now from “Conference: Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear weapons.”
154
See for instance Bulkeley, Harriet, and Peter Newell.: what they were in 1945. 194
This conference took place 13-14 February of 2014
“Governing climate change.” Routledge (2010). See Toon, Owen B., et al.: “Atmospheric effects and
175
http://www.sre.gob.mx/en/index.php/humanimpact-
155
See the National Research Council: “Abrupt Impacts societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts nayarit-2014
of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises.” Washington, and acts of individual nuclear terrorism.” Atmospheric 195
See The 1983 War Scare: “The Last Paroxysm” of
DC: The National Academies Press (2013). Chemistry and Physics 7.8 (2007): 1973-2002, and the Cold War Part I, The 1983 War Scare: “The Last
156
See NASA’s “GISS Surface Temperature Analysis.” Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov.: Paroxysm” of the Cold War Part II, and The 1983 War
157
See the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. “Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate Scare: “The Last Paroxysm” of the Cold War Part III.
model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic
158
See the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. 196
See The 1983 War Scare: “The Last Paroxysm” of the
consequences.” Journal of Geophysical Research:
159
See the IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species. Cold War Part III.
Atmospheres (1984–2012) 112.D13 (2007).
See McManus, J. F., et al.: “Collapse and rapid
160 197
An extensive but certainly not exhaustive list can be
Arsenals have been reduced, but there remain
176
resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_
over 17,000 nuclear warheads in the world’s arsenals
deglacial climate changes.” Nature 428.6985 (2004): nuclear_accidents.
(source: SIPRI yearbook 2013), down from a peak of
834-837. 198
See especially the role of Vasili Arkhipov in preventing
some 68,000 in 1983, still more than enough to trigger a
See Schuur, Edward AG, et al.: “Vulnerability of
161 the conflict from going nuclear – a role that was only
nuclear winter.
permafrost carbon to climate change: Implications for revealed in 2002 (source: Roberts, Priscilla, ed. “Cuban
177
See Toon, Owen B., et al.: “Atmospheric effects and
the global carbon cycle.” BioScience 58.8 (2008): 701- Missile Crisis: The Essential Reference Guide.” ABC-
societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts
714. CLIO, 2012).
and acts of individual nuclear terrorism.” Atmospheric
162
See Archer, David.: “Methane hydrate stability
199
See Scott Shane, writing in the Baltimore Sun: “The
Chemistry and Physics 7.8 (2007): 1973-2002, and
and anthropogenic climate change.” Biogeosciences Nuclear War that Almost Happened in 1983” (August 31,
Helfand, Ira.: “NUCLEAR FAMINE: TWO BILLION
Discussions 4.2 (2007): 993-1057. 2003).
PEOPLE AT RISK?.” International Physicians for the
163
For example, as climate warms, the destabilization of Prevention of Nuclear War (2013).
200
See the PBS report on the incident.
the West Antarctic ice sheet could raise sea level rapidly, Maher, Timothy M., and Seth D. Baum.: “Adaptation
178
201
Errors of a different kind happened in the early days
with serious consequences for coastal communities. to and recovery from global catastrophe.” Sustainability of the Cold War, when simple game theory models were
164
http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_war 5.4 (2013): 1461-1479. used to argue for a nuclear first strike (source: Kaku,
For an analysis of the possibility of accidental nuclear
165 Michio, and Daniel Axelrod. “To win a nuclear war: the
179
See the later part of the scenario in Tonn, Bruce, and
war between Russia and the USA, see Barrett, Anthony Pentagon’s secret war plans.” Black Rose Books Ltd.,
Donald MacGregor.: “A singular chain of events.” Futures
M., Seth D. Baum, and Kelly Hostetler.: “Analyzing and 1987).
41.10 (2009): 706-714.
Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between
202
Some have modelled the nuclear standoff as a
180
A synthesis blogpost by Carl Shulman of the Future
the United States and Russia.” Science & Global “perceptual dilemma,” where misperception of the
of Humanity Institute puts the risk of extinction, given
Security 21.2 (2013): 106-133. adversary is the main cause of arms races (source:
civilisation collapse, at no more than 10%.
166
Hellman, Martin E.: “How risky is nuclear optimism?.” Plous, Scott.: “The nuclear arms race: prisoner’s
181
See Tetlock, Philip E.: “Expert political judgment: How
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 67.2 (2011): 47-56. dilemma or perceptual dilemma?.” Journal of Peace
good is it? How can we know?” Princeton University
Research 30.2 (1993): 163-179).
167
See Lundgren, Carl.: “What are the odds? Assessing Press (2005).
the probability of a nuclear war.” The Nonproliferation
203
See Barrett, Anthony M., Seth D. Baum, and Kelly
See the official Remarks by Ambassador Susan
182
Review 20.2 (2013): 361-374. Hostetler.: “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of
E. Rice, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United
Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and
168
A 1979 study by the United States Office of Nations, at the Security Council Stakeout.
Russia.” Science & Global Security 21.2 (2013): 106-133.
Technology Assessment, “The Effects of Nuclear War,” 183
“North Korean nuclear test draws anger, including
estimated 20-160 million immediate casualties from a
204
See Barrett, Anthony M., Seth D. Baum, and Kelly
from China” (Reuters).
full-scale nuclear war. Hostetler.: “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of
184
See the Security Council Resolution 2087 (2013). Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and
Currently estimated at around 17,000 (source: SIPRI
169
See the description of the sanctions in the Security
185
Russia.” Science & Global Security 21.2 (2013): 106-133.
yearbook 2013).
Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 205
See Podvig, Pavel.: “Reducing the risk of an
Though it has been argued that scientists, under
170
1718. Accidental Launch.” Science and Global Security 14.2-3
pressure from governments and industry, have 186
See the States Parties of the Nuclear Non- (2006): 75-115.
systematically underestimated the deleterious global
Proliferation Treaty (NPT). 206
See Intriligator, Michael D., and Dagobert L. Brito.:
impact of radiation. See Perrow, Charles.: “Nuclear
See North Korean security challenges: a net
187
“Accidental nuclear war: a significant issue for arms
denial: From Hiroshima to Fukushima.” Bulletin of the
assessment. International Institute for Strategic Studies, control.” Current Research on Peace and Violence
Atomic Scientists 69.5 (2013): 56-67.
2011, Chapter 5. 11.1/2 (1988): 14-23.
171
The seminal American paper was Turco, Richard 188
See North Korean security challenges: a net 207
See Ayson, Robert.: “After a terrorist nuclear attack:
P., et al.: “Nuclear winter: global consequences of
assessment. International Institute for Strategic Studies, Envisaging catalytic effects.” Studies in Conflict &
multiple nuclear explosions.” Science 222.4630 (1983):
2011, Chapter 6. Terrorism 33.7 (2010): 571-593.
1283-1292. The Soviet Union was working on similar
simulations; see for instance Peterson, Jeannie.: “The
189
See North Korean security challenges: a net 208
See Hellman, Martin E.: “How risky is nuclear
aftermath: The human and ecological consequences of assessment. International Institute for Strategic Studies, optimism?.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 67.2 (2011):
nuclear war.” New York: Pantheon (1983). 2011, Chapter 8. 47-56.
See Mills, Michael J., et al.: “Massive global ozone
172
190
See Chanlett-Avery, Emma, and Mi Ae Taylor.: “North 209
See Shanteau, James.: “Competence in experts: The
loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict.” Korea: US Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal role of task characteristics.” Organizational behavior and
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Situation.” Congressional Research Service, Library of human decision processes 53.2 (1992): 252-266.
Endnotes
210
See also Mosher, David E., et al.: Beyond the Nuclear (Nuclear Threat Initiative). 254
See Schlager, Edella, and Elinor Ostrom. “Property-
Shadow. “A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_
230 rights regimes and natural resources: a conceptual
Safety and US Russian Relations.” No. RAND/MR-1666- nuclear_weapons analysis.” Land economics (1992): 249-262.
NSRD. RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, 2003. 231
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_collapse
255
See Frank, Kenneth T., et al. “Trophic cascades in a
See the Report of the Open-ended Working Group
211
See Pimm, Stuart L., et al.: “The future of
232 formerly cod-dominated ecosystem.” Science 308.5728
to develop proposals to take forward multilateral nuclear biodiversity.” Science 269 (1995): 347-347. (2005): 1621-1623.
disarmament negotiations for the achievement and 256
See the IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species.
See Rockström, Johan, et al.: “Planetary boundaries:
233
maintenance of a world without nuclear weapons. See Zalasiewicz, Jan, et al. “Are we now living in the
257
exploring the safe operating space for humanity.”
See the text of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
212
Ecology and society 14.2 (2009). Anthropocene?” GSA Today 18.2 (2008): 4.
Nuclear Weapons. 258
See Barnosky, Anthony D., et al.: “Approaching a
See Barnosky, Anthony D., et al.: “Approaching a
234
Treaty Between the United States of America and the

213
state shift in Earth’s biosphere.” Nature 486.7401 (2012): state shift in Earth’s biosphere.” Nature 486.7401 (2012):
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of 52-58. 52-58.
Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles. 259
See Dol, Marcel, ed.: “Recognising the intrinsic
235
See Ehrlich, Paul R., and Anne H. Ehrlich.: “Can a
214
collapse of global civilization be avoided?.” Proceedings value of animals: beyond animal welfare.” Uitgeverij Van
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 280.1754 Gorcum (1999).
and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. (2013). 260
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic
215
See Galaz, Victor, et al.: “Global environmental
236
See Hanson, Robin.: “Catastrophe, social collapse,
261
Russian Federation On Strategic Offensive Reductions. governance and planetary boundaries: An introduction.” and human extinction.” Global Catastrophic Risks 1
216
The Treaty between the United States of America Ecological Economics 81 (2012): 1-3. (2008): 357.
and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further 237
See Dol, Marcel, ed.: “Recognizing the intrinsic 262
See Asmussen, Søren. “Steady-State Properties of
Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms value of animals: beyond animal welfare.” Uitgeverij Van of GI/G/1.” Applied Probability and Queues (2003): 266-
also known as the New START Treaty. Gorcum (1999). 301.
217
See Sovacool, Benjamin K. “Contesting the future of 238
See Dasgupta, Partha.: “Human well-being and the 263
Possessing neither variance nor mean.
nuclear power: a critical global assessment of atomic natural environment.” OUP Catalogue (2001). This explains why governments and international
264
energy.” World Scientific, 2011.
See the author’s blog post: “Water, food or energy:
239
organisations seem to over-react to pandemics (such
218
Helfand, Ira.: “Nuclear Famine: Two Billion People we won’t lack them.” summarising the current evidence. as the swine flu scare). Though any single pandemic is
at Risk?” International Physicians for the Prevention of unlikely to cause a large number of casualties, there is
240
See “2013 World Hunger and Poverty Facts and
Nuclear War (2013). always the small risk that it could get out of hand and kill
Statistics.” World Hunger Education Service (2013).
219
See for instance Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, and millions.
241
Maher, Timothy M., and Seth D. Baum.: “Adaptation
Georgiy L. Stenchikov.: “Nuclear winter revisited with a 265
There is always a probability that the power law will
to and recovery from global catastrophe.” Sustainability
modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still not hold for future pandemics – but the majority of the
5.4 (2013): 1461-1479.
catastrophic consequences.” Journal of Geophysical risk is concentrated in scenarios where it does.
242
See Dullinger, Stefan, et al.: “Europe’s other debt
Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 112.D13 (2007),
crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions.”
266
See Hanson, Robin.: “Catastrophe, social collapse,
Toon, Owen B., et al. “Atmospheric effects and societal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and human extinction.” Global Catastrophic Risks 1
consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and
110.18 (2013): 7342-7347. (2008): 357.
acts of individual nuclear terrorism.” Atmospheric
243
G8 2007 Environment Ministers Meeting.
267
Source: EM-DAT, The International Disaster Database.
Chemistry and Physics 7.8 (2007): 1973-2002, and
Stenke, A., et al. “Climate and chemistry effects of a See Pimm, Stuart L., et al. “The future of biodiversity.”
244 See Jeffs, Benjamin.: “A clinical guide to viral
268
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environmental crisis. Earth and Planetary Science Killers. ACS synthetic biology (2013). template. Science 297.5583 (2002): 1016-1018.
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Engineered Pathogens but Call Bioweapons Doomsday 443
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Permian mass extinction. Science 334.6061 (2011): genitalium genome. Science 319.5867 (2008): 1215-
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See Zhang, Ying, et al.: H5N1 hybrid viruses bearing
See Schmidt, Markus, ed.: Synthetic biology:
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425 2009/H1N1 virus genes transmit in guinea pigs by
industrial and environmental applications. Wiley- Donald MacGregor.: A singular chain of events. Futures respiratory droplet. Science 340.6139 (2013): 1459-
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407
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426 445
The Human Fatality and Economic Burden of a Man-
risk might be minute or huge, it’s unclear at present. See Considerations of Synthetic Biology in the International made Influenza Pandemic.
Sahlin, Nils-Eric, and Johannes Persson.: Epistemic risk: Genetically Engineered Machine (iGEM) Competition. 446
See Drexler, K. Eric.: Engines of Creation: the Coming
the significance of knowing what one does not know. BioScience 63.1 (2013): 25-34. Era of Nanotechnology. Fourth Estate (1990).
Future risks and risk management. Springer Netherlands 427
See Wired Magazine’s feature article Genome at 447
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(1994) 37-62.
Home: Biohackers Build Their Own Labs. Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization.
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The decision to lift the moratorium on potentially Public Affairs (2013).
428
Such as Bernauer, Hubert, et al.: Technical solutions
dangerous gain of function flu research was taken by
for biosecurity in synthetic biology. Industry Association 448
See Freitas, Robert A., and Ralph Charles Merkle.:
the researchers themselves (source: Declan Butler: Work
Synthetic Biology, Munich, Germany (2008). Kinematic self-replicating machines. Georgetown, TX:
resumes on lethal flu strains, Nature News). 429
See Lenox, Michael J., and Jennifer Nash.: Industry Landes Bioscience/Eurekah. com (2004).
See Schmidt, Markus.: Diffusion of synthetic biology:
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self‐regulation and adverse selection: a comparison 449
See Committee to Review the National
a challenge to biosafety. Systems and synthetic biology
across four trade association programs. Business Nanotechnology Initiative.: A matter of size: Triennial
2.1-2 (2008): 1-6.
strategy and the environment 12.6 (2003): 343-356. review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative. (2006).
410
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According to the CIA World Factbook.
Endnotes
451
See Roco, Mihail C., and William S. Bainbridge.: 473
See Drexler, K. Eric.: Radical Abundance: How a avoiding this. “Friendly AI” projects focus on the AI’s
Societal implications of nanoscience and Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization. goals directly, and attempt to make these compatible
nanotechnology: Maximizing human benefit. Journal of PublicAffairs (2013). with human survival. The Oracle AI approach attempts
Nanoparticle Research 7.1 (2005): 1-13. 474
See Drexler, K. Eric.: Engines of Creation: the Coming to “box” the AI (constrain its abilities to influence the
See the report of the Center for Responsible
452
Era of Nanotechnology. Fourth Estate (1990). world) in order to prevent it from acquiring power. The
Nanotechnology,: Dangers of Molecular Manufacturing. 475
See Nanostart’s presentation at the reduced impact AI is a novel approach which attempts
See Drexler, K. Eric.: Radical Abundance: How a
453
EuroNanoForum 2013, Dublin: Venture Capital to construct AIs goals that are not friendly per se, but
Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization. Investments in Nanotech (2013). that motivate the AI to have a very limited impact on the
PublicAffairs (2013). world, thus constraining the potential damage it could
476
See Nanostart’s newsletter, A space elevator would
do.
See Barber, Kevin, et al.: Nanotechnology for Uranium
454
be a tremendous benefit for humankind (2012).
Separations and Immobilization. Advances in Materials
494
There are many different designs for AIs, and
See Levine, Michael E., and Jennifer L. Forrence.:
477
Science for Environmental and Nuclear Technology: disagreements about whether they could be considered
Regulatory capture, public interest, and the public
Ceramic Transactions 107 (2010): 177. moral agents or capable of suffering. At one end of
agenda: Toward a synthesis. Journal of Law, Economics,
the scale is the theoretical AIXI(tl), which is essentially
455
See Gubrud, Mark Avrum.: Nanotechnology and & Organization 6 (1990): 167-198.
nothing more than an equation with vast computing
international security. Fifth Foresight Conference on 478
See the Congressional Research Service report,
power; at the other lie whole brain emulations, copies of
Molecular Nanotechnology (1997). Nanotechnology: a Policy Primer (2013).
human minds implemented inside a computer. Suffering
456
See Altmann, Jürgen.: Military uses of 479
Nano-replicator: A system able to build copies of itself for the first design seems unlikely; suffering for the
nanotechnology: perspectives and concerns. Security when provided with raw materials and energy second seems very possible. Determining whether a
Dialogue 35.1 (2004): 61-79. 480
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence specific AI design can suffer will be an important part of
See the Oxford Martin School publication by Drexler,
457
See Armstrong, Stuart, and Kaj Sotala. 2012.: How
481 figuring out what to do with it; it seems unlikely that we’ll
K. Eric and Pamlin, Dennis: Nano-solutions for the 21st We’re Predicting AI—or Failing To. In Beyond AI: Artificial have hard and fast rules in advance.
Century, (2013). Dreams, edited by Jan Romportl, Pavel Ircing, Eva 495
The idea behind uploads, also called whole brain
458
See Wilson, Grant.: Minimizing global catastrophic Zackova, Michal Polak, and Radek Schuster, 52–75 emulations, is to take a human brain, copy the position
and existential risks from emerging technologies through 482
See Chalmers, David, The singularity: A philosophical of its neurones and connections to sufficient precision,
international law. Available at SSRN 2179094 (2012). analysis. Journal of Consciousness Studies 17.9-10 and then run the emulation forwards according to the
459
See Drexler, K. Eric.: Engines of Creation: the Coming (2010): 9-10. laws of physics and chemistry. It should then behave
Era of Nanotechnology. Fourth Estate (1990). 483
See Muehlhauser, Luke, and Anna Salamon.: exactly as a human brain in the real world. See http://
See Phoenix, Chris, and Eric Drexler.: Safe
460
Intelligence explosion: Evidence and import. Singularity www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf
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869. 484
See Yudkowsky, Eliezer.: Intelligence Explosion and tries to estimate the likelihood off success of such
See Freitas Jr, Robert A.: Some limits to global
461
Microeconomics. Technical report 2013-1 Berkeley, CA: an approach (it depends on certain likely but uncertain
ecophagy by biovorous nanoreplicators, with public Machine Intelligence Research Institute (2013). assumptions about how the brain works at the small
policy recommendations. Foresight Institute (2000). scale; ie that most things below a certain scale can
485
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Such as computer viruses today, which endure
462 be handled statistically rather than through detailed
and existential risks from emerging technologies through
despite efforts at eradication, but don’t threaten the modelling).
international law. Available at SSRN 2179094 (2012).
system as a whole.
496
There’s two ways there could be diminishing returns
See Omohundro, Stephen M.: The basic AI drives.
486
See Leary, Scott P., Charles Y. Liu, and Michael LJ

463 to intelligence: first, it might not be possible for an AI
Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and applications 171
Apuzzo.: Toward the emergence of nanoneurosurgery: to improve its own intelligence strongly. Maybe it could
(2008): 483.
Part III-Nanomedicine: Targeted nanotherapy, find some ways of better executing its algorithms, and
487
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nanosurgery, and progress toward the realization of Intelligence Explosion and Machine Ethics. In Singularity
nanoneurosurgery. Neurosurgery 58.6 (2006): 1009- after doing this, it will find that the remaining intelligence-
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1026.. edited by Amnon Eden, Johnny Søraker, James H. Moor, itself sufficiently to make them easy (you could analogise
464
See the later part of the scenario in Tonn, Bruce, and and Eric Steinhart. Berlin: Springer (2012) this to dampened resonance - initially the AI can improve
Donald MacGregor.: A singular chain of events. Futures 488
Dealing with most risks comes under the category its intelligence quite easily, and this gives it more
41.10 (2009): 706-714. of decision theory: finding the right approaches to intelligence with which to work, allowing it to improve its
465
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good is it? How can we know? Princeton University But an intelligent agent can react to decisions in a way and it soon plateaus).
Press (2005). the environment cannot, meaning that interactions The other way there could be diminishing returns to
See Lewandowski, Bartosz, et al.: Sequence-
466
with AIs are better modelled by the more complicated intelligence is if intelligence doesn’t translate into power
specific peptide synthesis by an artificial small-molecule discipline of game theory. effectively. This is more likely with things like social
machine. Science 339.6116 (2013): 189-193. 489
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467
a positive and negative factor in global risk. Global convince, say, 99% of Britain to vote for their party,
Kinematic self-replicating machines. Georgetown, TX: catastrophic risks 1 (2008): 303. no matter how socially intelligent it was. Scientific and
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Defined by Eric Drexler as a “device able to guide
468
need friendly AI. Think: Philosophy for Everyone (2014). by creativity (unlikely), constraints on the speed of
chemical reactions by positioning reactive molecules 491
The balance is currently very uneven, with only three making experiments, or just the fact that humans have
with atomic precision.” small organisations – the Future of Humanity Institute, solved the easy problems already.
469
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See the report of the Center for Responsible
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Robock, A., L. Oman, and G. L. Stenchikov 612

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617
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instedd.org/ 623
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Bagus, Ghalid (2008): Pandemic Risk Modeling Discovering the Nanoscale (2004): 269 http://
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620
E.g. US Government laboratories had 395 incidents
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that involved the potential release of selected agents
628
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infections were reported. The accidents, including
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animal bites, needle sticks, and other mishaps, are 629
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perspective/2007/03/talking-about-flu-pandemic-worst-
mentioned briefly in an NRC report on the plans for a One of those who led the development of how
630
case-scenario
risk assessment for an Army biodefense lab to be built at organisations can become destructive is Philip
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R. Carpenter, and William A. Brock.: Uncertainty and the Review of Risk Assessment Work Plan for the Medical com/
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Human health, well-being, and global ecological 621
Clauset, Aaron, and Ryan Woodard. (2013): 632
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Sources for the estimates include: 635
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“What rough beast? Synthetic biology, uncertainty,
Endnotes
(1992%E2%80%93present) 656
Nagy, Béla; Doyne Farmer, J.; M. Bui, Quan; E.
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636 Trancik, Jessika (2013): A projection of future PV
ending-extreme-poverty electricity costs from the Photovoltaics2 historical data
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pone.0052669.g006.
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notalwayswithus
658
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/
639
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe worldageing19502050/pdf/90chapteriv.pdf
http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/english/beyond/
640
659
global/chapter3.html worldageing19502050/pdf/90chapteriv.pdf
641
660
642
661
643
http://esa.un.org/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2012_
662
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_data
HIGHLIGHTS.pdf For some examples of visualisation tools: http://www.
663
644 creativebloq.com/design-tools/data-visualization-712402
HIGHLIGHTS.pdf
664
For a discussion about risk and the importance
645 of probability curves of risk, see Kaplan, Stanley and
HIGHLIGHTS.pdf Garrick, John B., On the Quantitative Definition of
Risk, Risk Analysis, Vol. I, No. 1, 1981, in which the
646
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
authors state (pp. 11–27): “We prefer to say that ‘risk is
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/pdf/
647
probability and consequence.’ In the case of a single
WPP2010_Wallchart_Text.pdf
scenario the probability times consequence viewpoint
648
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_ would equate a low-probability high-damage scenario
publications/living_planet_report/ with a high-probability low-damage scenario – clearly not
649
http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/english/beyond/ the same thing at all. In the case of multiple scenarios the
global/chapter8.html probability times consequence view would correspond
650
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_ to saying the risk is the expected value of damage, i.e.,
anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll the mean of the risk curve. We say it is not the mean of
651
Van Evera, Stephen (2013): Causes of war: Power the curve, but the curve itself which is the risk. A single
and the roots of conflict. Cornell University Press, 2013. number is not a big enough concept to communicate
Xu Jin (2006): The Strategic Implications of Changes the idea of risk. It takes a whole curve. Now the truth is
in Military Technology, Chinese Journal of International that a curve is not a big enough concept either. It takes a
Politics 2006 1: 163-193. http://cjip.oxfordjournals.org/ whole family of curves to fully communicate the idea of
content/1/2/163.full risk.”
652
http://www.plosone.org/article/
665
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/
info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0052669 uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf
http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-
653
666
SNRA covers risks such as school shootings,
returns heatwaves and collapses of hydroelectric dams
Lloyd, Seth (2000): Ultimate physical limits to

654
667
https://www.msb.se/RibData/Filer/pdf/26561.pdf
computation, http://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/9908043. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/
668
pdf?origin=publication_detail uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v406/n6799/
669
Richard Possner has described key elements of such
full/4061047a0.html a centre in the book Catastrophe: risk and response.
655
E.g. Claw E. (1998) The natural limits of technological Posner, Richard A. Catastrophe: risk and response.
innovation: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ Oxford University Press, 2004.
article/pii/S0160791X98000050
Endnotes
Appendix 1 – Global Challenges Bibliography
Appendix 1 –
Global Challenges
Bibliography
The Global Catastrophic Risk Insti- More publications were identified Further, the term is used by re-
tute (GCRI) published a GCR bibliog- by searching scholarly databases searchers from a variety of different
raphy compiled in July 2011 by Seth (mainly Web of Science and Google backgrounds. This makes it a par-
Baum, available at http://gcrinstitute. Scholar) and databases of popular ticularly fruitful term for discovering
org/bibliography. This contains 115 literature (mainly Amazon and the new global challenges research.
entries, emphasising publications New York Public Library) for relevant
surveying the breadth of the risks or keywords and for citations of the One hallmark of the global chal-
discussing other topics of general publications already identified. lenges topic is that it is studied by
interest to the study of GCR, with distinct research communities that
less emphasis on analysis of spe- Several keywords and phrases have limited interaction with each
cific global challenges. It has been were searched for in the databases: other. As research communities often
updated for this Global Challenges “existential catastrophe”; “exis- develop their own terminology, it can
Foundation report and now contains tential risk”; “global catastrophe”; be difficult to discover one commu-
178 entries. “global catastrophic risk”; “greatest nity by searching for another’s terms.
global challenges”; “human extinc- For example, “existential risk” is
The reason for focusing on general tion”; “xrisk”; and “infinite risk”. The used heavily by researchers studying
interest publications is because the results of these searches were then risk from artificial intelligence and
literature on specific global challeng- screened for relevant publications. other emerging technologies, but it is
es is far too voluminous to cata- Many of the results were not rele- rarely used by researchers studying
logue. It would include, for example, vant, because these terms are used environmental risks. Discovering and
a significant portion of the literatures in other ways. For example, “existen- connecting the disparate corners
on climate change, energy, nuclear tial risk” is sometimes used to refer of the GCR research is an ongoing
weapons, infectious diseases and to risks to the existence of business- challenge for the GCR community.
biodiversity, all topics that receive es, countries or other entities; “hu- Bibliography searches such as these
extensive research attention. Thus man extinction” is used in the study are an important way to meet this
the full bibliography compiled by of memory. The publications that challenge.
GCRI is only a small portion of the use these terms in the same sense
total global challenges literature. as the bibliography were then further
screened for publications of general
Publications for the full bibliography global challenges interest, not for
were identified in several ways. The specific global challenges.
bibliography began with publications
already known to fit the selection The most productive search term for
criteria. Additional publications were the database searches turned out to
identified by examining the reference be “global catastrophe”. This term
lists of the initial publications. produced a relatively large number
of hits and relatively few publications
on unrelated topics.
– Andersen, Ross, 2012. We’re under- – Baum, Seth D., 2009. Global Cat- – Bloom, Barry, 2003. Bioterrorism and
estimating the risk of human extinc- astrophic Risks (book review). Risk the university: The threats to security –
tion. The Atlantic, March 6. http:// Analysis, vol. 29, no. 1 (January), and to openness. Harvard Magazine,
www.theatlantic.com/technology/ pages 155-156. http://sethbaum.com/ November-December, pages 48-52.
archive/2012/03/were-underesti- ac/2009_Rev-GCR.pdf
mating-the-risk-of-human-extinc- – Bommier, Antoine and Stéphane
tion/253821 – Baum, Seth D., 2009. Cost-ben- Zuber, 2008. Can preferences for
efit analysis of space exploration: catastrophe avoidance reconcile social
– Andersen, Ross, 2013. Omens. Some ethical considerations. Space discounting with intergenerational eq-
Aeon, February 25. http://aeon.co/ Policy, vol. 25, no. 2 (May), pages uity?. Social Choice and Welfare, vol.
magazine/world-views/ross-anders- 75-80. http://sethbaum.com/ac/2009_ 31, no. 3 (October), pages 415-434.
en-human-extinction CBA-SpaceExploration.html
– Bostrom, Nick 1999. The doomsday
– Asimov, Isaac, 1981. A Choice of Ca- – Baum, Seth D., 2010. Is humanity argument is alive and kicking. Mind,
tastrophes: The Disasters That Threat- doomed? Insights from astrobiology. vol. 108, no. 431, pages 539-550.
en Our World. New York: Ballantine Sustainability, vol. 2, no. 2 (February), http://www.anthropic-principle.com/
Books. pages 591-603. preprints/ali/alive.html
– Barrett, Scott, 2006. The problem of – Baum, Seth D., 2013. Teaching – Bostrom, Nick, 2001. The doomsday
averting global catastrophe. Chicago astrobiology in a sustainability course. argument, Adam & Eve, UN++, and
Journal of International Law, vol. 6, no. Journal of Sustainability Education, Quantum Joe. Synthese, vol. 127,
2, pages 527-552. February (online): http://www.jsed- no. 3, pages 359-387. http://www.
imensions.org/wordpress/content/ anthropic-principle.com/preprints/cau/
– Barrett, Scott, 2007. Why Cooper- teaching-astrobiology-in-a-sustainabil- paradoxes.html
ate? The Incentive to Supply Global ity-course_2013_02.
Public Goods. Oxford: Oxford Univer- – Bostrom, Nick, 2002. Existential
sity Press. – Baum, Seth D., Timothy M. Maher risks: Analyzing human extinction
Jr., and Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2013. scenarios and related hazards. Journal
– Barrett, Anthony M., Seth D. Baum, Double catastrophe: Intermittent of Evolution and Technology, 9. http://
and Kelly R. Hostetler, 2013. Analyzing stratospheric geoengineering induced www.jetpress.org/volume9/risks.pdf
and reducing the risks of inadvertent by societal collapse. Environment,
nuclear war between the United States Systems, and Decisions, vol. 33, no. 1 – Bostrom, Nick, 2003. Astronomical
and Russia. Science and Global Secu- (March), pages 168-180. waste: The opportunity cost of delayed
rity, vol. 21, no. 2, pages 106-133. technological development. Utilitas,
– Baum, Seth D. and Grant S. Wilson, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 308-314. http://
– Baudiment, Fabienne Goux, 2009. 2013. The ethics of global catastrophic www.nickbostrom.com/astronomical/
Tomorrow will die. Futures, vol. 41, no. risk from dual-use bioengineering. Eth- waste.pdf
10 (December), pages 746-753. ics in Biology, Engineering and Medi-
cine, vol. 4, no. 1, pages 59-72. – Bostrom, Nick, 2006. Dinosaurs,
– Baum, Seth, 2008. Reducing cat- dodos, humans?. Global Agenda,
astrophic risk through integrative – Beckstead, Nicholas, 2013. On The January, pages 230-231. http://www.
assessment. Hawaii Reporter, August Overwhelming Importance Of Shaping nickbostrom.com/papers/globalagen-
25; Daily Camera (Boulder, CO), Sep- The Far Future. Doctoral Dissertation, da.pdf
tember 2 http://www.amergeog.org/ Department of Philosophy, Rutgers
newsrelease/baum-hawaii08.pdf University. – Bostrom, Nick, 2011. Existential risk
FAQ. http://www.existentialrisk.com/
– Baum, Seth D., 2008. Better to exist: – Benatar, David, 2006. Better Never to faq.html
A reply to Benatar. Journal of Medical Have Been: The Harm of Coming Into
Ethics, vol. 34, no. 12 (December), Existence. Oxford: Clarendon Press. – Bostrom, Nick (2013) Existential risk
pages 875-876. http://sethbaum.com/ prevention as a global priority. Global
ac/2008_BetterToExist.pdf Policy 4(1) 15-31.
– Bostrom, Nick and Milan M. Ćirković, – Charles, Daniel, 2006. A ‘forever’ – Ćirković, Milan, Anders Sandberg,
2003. The doomsday argument and seed bank takes root in the Arctic. and Nick Bostrom, 2010. Anthropic
the self-indication assumption: Reply Science, vol. 312, no. 5781 (23 June), shadow: Observation selection effects
to Olum. Philosophical Quarterly, vol. pages 1730-1731. and human extinction risks. Risk Anal-
53, no. 210 (January), pages 83-91. ysis, vol. 30, no. 10 (October), pages
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preprints/olum/sia.pdf ing extinction: Equal treatment of the com/papers/anthropicshadow.pdf
present and the future. Economics,
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2008. Global Catastrophic Risks. economics-ejournal.org/economics/ Makes People Healthy, Happy, and
Oxford: Oxford University Press. http:// journalarticles/2009-32 Fulfilled In The Face Of Current World
www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/ Challenges? Mens Sana Monographs
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extinction: The future of economics. gov/pmc/articles/PMC3653221
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Appendix 2 – Workshops
Appendix 2 –
Workshops
Workshop 1
14 January 2014,
at the Future of Humanity Institute
(FHI), University of Oxford:
Participants
Stuart Armstrong, James Martin Re- Patrick McSharry, head of Smith Jules Peck, Founding Partner, Jericho
search Fellow, FHI, Oxford School’s Catastrophe Risk Financing Chambers; Trustee, New Economics
Seth Baum, Executive Director of the research area. Foundation
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Vincent Müller, James Martin Research Anders Sandberg, James Martin Re-
Nick Beckstead, Research Fellow, Fellow, FHI, Oxford search Fellow, FHI, Oxford
FHI, Oxford Robert de Neufville, Professional As- Andrew Simms, Author, Fellow at the
Eric Drexler, Academic Visitor, James sociate, Global Catastrophic New Economics Foundation and Chief
Martin Research Fellow, FHI, Oxford Risk Institute Analyst at Global Witness
Madeleine Enarsson, Transformative Toby Ord, James Martin Research Andrew Snyder-Beattie, Academic
Catalyst, 21st Century Frontiers Fellow, FHI, Oxford Project Manager, FHI, Oxford
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, James Martin Aca- Dennis Pamlin, Executive Project James Taplan, Principal Sustainability
demic Project Manager, FHI, Oxford and Manager, Global Challenges Advisor, Forum for the Future
project manager, Cambridge’s Centre for Foundation Raj Thamotheram, CEO, Preventable
Study of Existential Risk, Cambridge Surprises
Agenda 10.40-11.40 14.30-15.30

Major events during 2013 and links to 2014 Emerging challenges
09.30 Welcome Discussing the draft list and structure. Probabilities and impacts, discussions
What is missing, especially with regards to regarding the challenges. Who can
09.35-09.50: Round of introductions emerging countries? What could happen provide an estimation of the risk and who
during 2014 that we think should be can continue to work on these? Are there
09.50-10.10 reflected in the report? synergies between them and between
Introducing the Global Challenges Foun- them and today’s major challenges?
dation and the work with the “Global 11.40-12.30
Challenges Report” Infinite impacts 15.30-16.00
What is the background for this work, How can infinite impacts be defined and Natural challenges and policy challenges
draft structure of the report and agenda presented in ways that make policy mak- How to deal with these challenges that are
for the day? ers take them seriously? What models different, especially policy challenges?
and narratives exist, what coalitions can
10.10-10.40 work with such questions? 16.00-16.30
Global Challenges in society today and Next steps and need for funding
global risks 12.30-13.30 Lunch Based on the discussion during the day,
Who cares about and works with the what are possible next steps? Are there
major global challenges that pose an 13.30-14.30 initiatives/work in need of funding? What
existential threat and who wants to cancel Major challenges role could a quarterly Global Challenges/
the apocalypse? In short: In what context Probabilities and impacts, discussions risk report have?
will the report be received? regarding the challenges. Who can
provide an estimation of the risk and who
can continue to work on these? Are there
synergies between them?
Appendix 2 – Workshops
Workshop 2
15 January 2014
at the Munich RE office in London:
Participants
Oliver Bettis, pricing actuary Mu- Nick Silver, director of Callund Con-
nich RE and fellow of the Chartered sulting and founder and director of the
Insurance Institute and the Institute & Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI)
Faculty of Actuaries. Liang Yin, Investment Consultant at
Madeleine Enarsson, Transformative Towers Watson
Catalyst, 21st Century Frontiers
Jennifer Morgan, Founder & Co-Con-
vener, the finance lab
Dennis Pamlin, Executive Project Man-
ager, Global Challenges Foundation
Agenda 12.45-13.00
How can infinite impacts be included
11.00-11.05 in mainstream actuary work? How can
Welcome thought leaders in the actuarial profes-
sion begin to include infinite impacts?
11.05-11.15
Round of introductions 13.00-13.30
What should the report include to be
11.15-11.30 relevant for actuaries/financial sector?
The Global Challenges Foundation and
a risk report 13.30-14.00
Possible ways forward
11.30-12.00
Infinite impacts and global challenges.
12.00-12.15
What risks with a possible infinite impact
are on the radar screen of actuaries
today (comparing the list from Oxford
with current actuary work) and how can
“Infinite impacts” be addressed?
12.15-12.45
Relations and overview
Notes
Notes
design by wearebwa.co.uk
Published February 2015
by Global Challenges Foundation
globalchallenges.org
Global Challenges Foundation

Stureplan 4C
114 35 Stockholm
For comments and/or queries on this report, please contact the co-authors:
Dennis Pamlin Dr Stuart Armstrong

Executive Project Manager James Martin Research Fellow
Global Risks Future of Humanity Institute
Global Challenges Foundation Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy
dennis@globalchallenges.org University of Oxford
globalchallenges.org stuart.armstrong@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
fhi.ox.ac.uk

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Artificial Extreme Future Bad

Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance

Risks that threaten Ecological

Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano

Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System

Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global

Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid

Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System

Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano

The case for a new risk category

Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid

Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown

Artificial Extreme Future Bad

1. Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation 28

2. Risks with infinite impact: A new category of risks 30

2.1 Report structure .............................................................................................................37

3. Twelve Global Challenges 60

3.1 Current risks / 3.1.1 Extreme Climate Change ............................................................62

4. Relations between global risks 138

5. Probabilities and uncertainties – an initial overview 142

6. Underlying trends of key importance 170

6.1 Poverty ............................................................................................................................171

7. Possible ways forward ................................................................................................ 176

Appendix 1 – Global Challenges Bibliography 198

This is the executive summary

With such a focus it may surprise some readers to find that

The idea that we face a number of global challenges

History: It is only 70 years ago that

This report has, to the best of the authors’ knowledge,

The report conducts its exploration It is worth noting that complex

Artificial Extreme Future Bad

Global System Major Asteroid

The four main goals of this report are to acknowledge,

The second goal is to inspire by The fourth goal is to deliver actual

The first part of the report introduces and defines the

– the last of the twelve challenges are

For several reasons the potentially The review of literature indicates

Climate change is a good example, Most risks are linked to increased

Risk = Probability x Impact

There is a clear ethical dimension to the concept of infinite

Using traditional economic tools events that could result first in a

Normal Risks New Category

In order to establish a list of global challenges with

– A quantitative assessment of Two workshops were arranged

Leading organisations’ priorities

Current Current Current

Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid

ificial Extreme Future Bad

Current Current Exogenic

ological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Ecological

Exogenic Emerging Emerging

gical Nanotechnology Nuclear War

Emerging Emerging Global Policy

me Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid

technology Nuclear War

5 key Nuclear War

Artificial And if these motivations do not

Global Policy risk

Two things make the understanding of the relation

first risk worsens second risk

solving first risk improves second risk

both of the above

In order to better understand the relations between