Strategic Management

TURBULENCE
by Dr. Tamer Tamer Salameh
Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

CONNECT: tamer@4spx.com, www.4spx.com & +1(858) 733.8888
Epistemology
“the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to its methods, validity, and scope.
Epistemology is the investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion.
Source:
Oxford Dictionaries

Why?
*Mainly based on Russell L. Ackoff

Delineation
Operational Behavior
(Existing)
BEHAVIOR:
Leadership Strategic Behavior (New)
• TURBULENCE Focus on
and
Management
Balance Both

Vision Strategic
Strategic
Information
Talent
Mission Turbulence
Strategic
Leadership
Strategic
Objective Strategy Learning
Goal Capability Entrepreneurship
Innovation
Change
*Mainly based on H. Igor Ansoff & Many Sources**

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved. CONNECT: tamer@4spx.com, www.4spx.com & +1(858) 733.8888
Turbulence vis-à-vis Strategic Myopia

SEE
Source: Salameh, Tamer Tamer: 1987, “First Empirical Examination of Strategic Myopia”.

Acceleration, Expansion and Overlap of the Relevant Business Environment
KEY CONCEPTS
Mass Production Era(1) Post-Industrial Era (1) Digital Era
1950-2000 TURBULENCE
1900-1950 2000-2018+
Single Industry and National Firm Multi-Industry and Multi-National Firm High-tech Global Knowledge Economy perception in terms of;
Industry Unpredictability:
(Ludic2) - Visibility of Future
• New Technologies Impact/Urgency 1:
• New Social Values • Issues - Speed of Change
• New Economic Climate • Signals Changeability:
Ecological2 - Novelty of Events
+VW,
+Alternative - Complexity
Competitors +Chrysler Energy &
FORD +GM
(Big 3)
Honda, &
Driverless Survival If not, then Strategic
Toyota
Auto & Myopia will materialize.
Success 1
Customers Turbulence “People Leading
FIRM
& Managing;
Strategy
themselves,
F each other &
Capability
Government Labor
OptimisticU
the firm’s
Growth T interactions
and with its
Profit U
TURBULENCE in
R
Pessimistic society for
E Effective,
Time
Operational
1900 1930 1950 1980 2000-2017+ Strategic Efficient &
(incremental) (entrepreneurial)
Stable
Repetitive
1
Expanding
2
Changing
3
Discontinues
4
Surprising
5 Turbulent Equitable
Based on: H. Igor Ansoff1 (Father of Strategic Management). Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved. CONNECT: www.StrategicPosture.com /858.733.8888
Performance.
Impact of Strategic Myopia: Five Stages of Decline.
Source: Weitzel, W, & Jonsson, E.
3. Faulty 5.
(1989). “Decline in Organizations: 1. Blinded 2. Inaction 4. Crisis
Action Dissolution
A Literature Integration and
Extension,” Administrative Stage 3
Science Quarterly, 34: 91-109.
Stage 2 Denial of Stage 4

“Institutions can be Undisciplined Risk and Grasping for Stage 5
sick on the inside and Pursuit of Danger Salvation
yet still look strong on
Stage 1 More Capitulation
the outside; decline to
Arrogance
can sneak up on you, Irrelevance
Born of
and then - seemingly or Death
Success
all of a sudden - you're
in big trouble. JIM
COLLINS “How the
Mighty Fall” 2009

Panic of 1901, a U.S. economic recession that started a fight for financial control of the Northern Pacific Railway
Panic of 1907, a U.S. economic recession with bank failures
Depression of 1920-21, a U.S. economic recession following the end of WW1
1900s 1920s
Wall Street Crash of 1929 and Great Depression (1929–1939) the worst depression of modern history
1970s energy crisis
OPEC oil price shock (1973)
1979 energy crisis (1979)
1970s
Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975 in the UK

Latin American debt crisis (late 1970s, early 1980s) known as "lost decade"
Early 1980s Recession
Chilean crisis of 1982
Bank stock crisis (Israel 1983)
1980
Japanese asset price bubble (1986–1992)

Black Monday (1987) (1987) (US)
20th century
Savings and loan crisis failure of 1,043 out of the 3,234 S&Ls from 1986 to 1995 in the U.S.
Early 1990s Recession
1991 India economic crisis
Finnish banking crisis (1990s) (1991-1993)
Swedish banking crisis (1990s)
1994 economic crisis in Mexico
1990s
1997 Asian financial crisis

1998 Russian financial crisis
1998-99 Ecuador financial crisis
Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002)
Samba effect (1999) (Brazil)
Early 2000s recession
Dot-com bubble (2000-2002) (US)
2001 Turkish economic crisis
2002 Uruguay banking crisis
Venezuelan general strike of 2002–03
Questions
2007-2009 Financial Crisis

Late-2000s recession (worldwide)
2000s energy crisis (2003-2009) oil price bubble

Subprime mortgage crisis (US)(2007-2010)
2000s
United States housing bubble and United States housing market correction (US)(2003-2011)
Automotive industry crisis of 2008–2010 (US)
2008–2012 Icelandic financial crisis
2008–2010 Irish banking crisis
Russian financial crisis of 2008–2009
21st century
2008 Latvian financial crisis

Venezuelan banking crisis of 2009–10
2008-16 Spanish financial crisis
European sovereign debt crisis (EU) (2009-)
Greek government-debt crisis (2009-)
2010-14 Portuguese financial crisis
Crisis in Bolivarian Venezuela (2012-)
Ukrainian crisis (2013-2014)
2010s
2014 Russian financial crisis

2014-2017 Brazilian economic crisis
2015 Chinese stock market crash
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2012-2017 Venezuela crisis

12 Examples

8 Facts

SEE

SEE

SEE

• asymptotic analysis
"The real challenge in • competitive analysis
crafting strategy lies in
detecting subtle Future 1.Forecasting
•
•
•
curve fitting
Delphi
extrapolation
discontinuities that may • multiple regression
undermine a business in
the future. And for that
Studies •
•
PESTLE analysis
scenarios
• threats / opportunities
there is no technique, no • trend analysis
program, just a sharp • econometric
mind in touch with the • focus group
• input-output
situation." 2.Modelling • cybernetic
• design thinking
Henry Mintzberg • Stochastic
• PESTLE analysis
• Black Swan
• cross impact analysis
• deductive analysis
3.Impact & • force field analysis
Urgency • impact analysis
• issue management
Estimation • VUCA environments
CONNECT: tamer@4spx.com, www.4spx.com & +1(858) 733.8888 • weak/strong signals
• wild cards
Electric Vehicle 2014
Periodic Behavior:
Resulting in High Risk&
Low ROI
Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved. CONNECT: www.4spx, tamer@4spx.com and +1(858) 733.8888
Future Business Environment
What is the future for Electric Vehicles?
1. Speed of Change – Faster Than Response

2. Familiarity of Events – Unpredictable Surprises
3. Visibility of Future – Electric Vehicle is Coming
4. Complexity – issues impacting decision making are:
I. Technological
Summary
II. Political
III. Economic Turbulent
IV. Health Multi –ideological &

Multi-disciplinary
V. Education Complexity
VI. Geographical Epistemological

Strategic
VII. and, Other? Telesis
Therefore, the Future will be TURBULENT.
Thus, Manageable.
Future Business Environment
What is the future for Electric Vehicles In General?
Most Expensive SUV’s
Make Starting Price

1 G63 AMG SUV 134,300
2 Range Rover 83,545
3 Lexus LX 570 81,780
4 Toyota Land Cruser 78,255
5 Cadilac Escalade 63,170
http://www.bessed.com/mostexpensivesuvs/
Most Expensive Car’s
Make & Price:

1. Bugatti Veyron Super Sports $2,400,000
2. Aston Martin One-77 $1,850,000
3. Pagani Zonda Cinque Roadster $1,850,000
4. Lamborghini Reventon $1,600,000
5. Koenigsegg Agera R $1,600,000
6. Maybach Landaulet $1,380,000
7. Zenvo ST1 $1,225,000
8. Hennessey Venom GT Spyder $1,100,000
9. McLaren F1 $970,000
10. Ferrari Enzo $670,000
11. Pagani Zonda C12 F $667,321
12. SSC Ultimate Aero $654,400
Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights

Reserved. CONNECT: tamer@4spx.com, www.4spx.com &
+1(858) 733.8888
Solar Application(s) Review
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/03/quant
um-mechani/
http://www.ridebuzz.org/articles/solar-powered-
cars-photos.html
http://inhabitat.com/helios-vehicle-by-kim-gu-han/
http://walyou.com/the-volkswagen-solar-supercar/
Wind Application(s)Review
http://www.greenpatentblog.com/2008/09/17/for
d-to-explore-wind-turbines-on-car-roofs/
http://psipunk.com/green-vehicle-facile-a-multi-
dimensional-green-vehicle-for-future-roads/
http://www.motorauthority.com/image/10019205
9_formula-ae-wind-powered-sports-car-005
http://inhabitat.com/v
enturi-eclectic-the-1st-
energy-autonomous-
vehicle/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/2798670/Peugeot-concept-
vehicles-the-cars-of-the-future.html
Solar & Wind Application(s)Review
http://www.engadget.com/2006/12/19/vent
http://auto.infoniac.com/2010/01/aero-eco-friendly- uri-readies-the-launch-of-its-solar-wind-
concept-car-that-harnesses-wind-and-solar-energy/ powered-eclectic/
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/mitsubishi-unveils-all- http://ecoble.com/2009/07/14/8-awesome-uses-of-wind-and-solar-
electric-car-with-solar-roof.html power/
Hydrogen Application(s)Review
Honda FCEV Concept is debuted at the Los Angeles Auto

Show in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2013
Toyota FCV concept car is displayed at the media preview for the Tokyo The 2015 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell hydrogen-powered
Motor Show at the Tokyo Big Sight convention hall in Tokyo, Wednesday, electric vehicle is introduced at the Los Angeles Auto
Nov. 20, 2013 Show on Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2013, in Los Angeles
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-11-hydrogen-
cars-showroom.html#jCp
Market Overview Present and Future
Audi A4 Electric Chevy Spark Chevy Volt Corvette Lithium Ford Focus Electric (limited Mitsubishi i-MiEV Nissan Leaf Smart Electric (select dlrs) Tesla Model S Tesla Roadster (used units Toyota RAV4 EV
produc.) only) (best in each row shown in
green)
Conversion Conversion
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 Year
All-electric Electric "city-car" Electric w /gas recharge All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric Gas Type
Manual 5spd - - Manual 5spd 1spd Autom. - - - Manual 2spd - Transm ission
- - 98 batt then 35-40 gas - 99-110 - 102-129 - - 99 76-103 Gas-Equiv MPG-cm b
70 82 40 batt then 260 motor 100 100 99-126 100 93-122 300 245 80-110 Mi on a Full Charge
Electric Electric Sports Electric Electric Electric Electric Electric Sports Sports Electric Car Class
80 90 100 150 84 81 90 75 120 130 - Top Speed on Flat Rd
Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Rear-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Drive Type
- 8 9 - 10 15 - 6.5 4.2-5.6 4 - 0-60MPH (sec)
* * *
$34,950 $12,170 $34,185 $59,950 $35,200 $29,125 $28,800 $25,000 $62K- 106K $109,000 $49,800 Base Model MSRP
- $7,500 + $7,500 + - $7,500 + $7,500 + $7,500 + $7,500 + $7,500 + $7,500 + $7,500 + Tax Credit (see Notes)
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952
BMW Mini E (mfr trials; unk. Honda FIT EV (limited lease Myers Duo (advance ordrs Subaru R1e (unk. avail) Tango T600 (advance ordrs Tesla Model X Th!nk City (advance ordrs ZENN NEV (unk. avail) (best in each row shown
avail) avail) now) now) now) in green)
2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 Year

All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric All-electric Gas Type Copyright© 2019
- - - - - - - - Transm ission
Tamer Tamer Salameh,
- - 162 - - - - - Gas-Equiv MPG-cm b
109 123 30 50 200 256 100 25 Mi on a Full Charge All Rights Reserved.
Electric Hatchback 3-Wheel Electric Electric SUV Electric Hatchback Car Class CONNECT:
95 92 75 65 135 120 70 35 Top Speed on Flat Rd
Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel Front-wheel 4WD Front-wheel Front-wheel Drive Type
tamer@4spx.com,
8.5 - - - 4 5 - - 0-60MPH (sec) www.4spx.com &
TBD Lease $259/mo $21495 * TBD $160,000 $70K- 80K $32,495 $29,995 Base Model MSRP
+1(858) 733.8888
- - $2,500 + - - $7,500 + $7,500 + - Tax Credit (see Notes)
International Market Overview
The Economist - May 5th 2012 | SHENZHEN |From the print edition
International Market Overview
Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs): Vehicles that generate all their electric energy onboard the vehicle. HEVs include all varieties of hybrids that use electric motors for traction, including
series hybrids, parallel hybrids, through-the-road hybrids, and mild hybrids. Stop-start vehicles are not included in the HEV category.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs): Vehicles that use energy stored from the grid, but also have an ICE to extend the range of the vehicle.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs): Vehicles that use energy stored from the grid.
http://www.navigantresearch.com/wp-assets/uploads/2013/06/EVMF-13-Executive-Summary.pdf
Vision
Sport Utility Vehicle
I. Develop an Electric Vehicle (EV): 1- EV

1. Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV)
2. 300+ Miles per charge
3. High Quality & Safety
4. Ranging from Affordable to Expensive
2- Rough
II. 4 Categories of SUV’s – Ranging from
Family to Maximum Outdoor
Applications
III. Open & Wide Range Design with Central

Command & Control
IV. Global Network of State-of-the-Art

Technology, Eco Friendly Components
and Socially Responsible Global
Participants 3- Tough
4- Rough & Tough
Powered by Panasonic
Concept – 10 Energy Sources
SUV
9- Energy from Solar Roof 8- Energy from Household Plug

Front Grid
Front Lights
10- Energy from Solar Bonnet
Powered by:
1- Energy from Front Wind Turbines 7- Energy from Solar Back
2- Energy from Bottom Wind Turbines
3- Energy from Sides Wind Turbines
6- Energy from Breaks Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All

4- Energy from Wheel Wind Turbines Rights Reserved. CONNECT:
tamer@4spx.com, www.4spx.com &
5- Energy from Spoiler Wind Turbines +1(858) 733.8888
4obo
Wind Energy From Spoiler
Roof
Solar
Front Grid:
1- Front Lights
4obo
2- Front Wind Fans
Sides: Energy from Wind
Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All

Rights Reserved. CONNECT:
tamer@4spx.com, www.4spx.com &
+1(858) 733.8888
Design Team: 1st Draft
11-3-2013
Design Team: 2nd Draft
11-19-2013
Design Team: 3rd Draft
All
Terrain
Grinder
Super
SUV
Powered by Panasonic
Main Components
AM Racing AMR Dual Stack 250-90 AC Motor - Liquid

Cooled, Permanent Magnet - Remy
[AMR 250-90D]
This AM Racing motor is based on the very proven Remy 250-90 cartridge rotor using
their HVH technology. (High Voltage Hairpin) This high efficiency permanent magnet
motor is housed in a billet aluminum case with an integrated oil pump, and
water/glycol heat exchanger. Mainly used in race applications, this motor is designed
for long life use, and is perfectly suited for high output daily driving applications. Can
be used in conjunction with the Rhinehart 100kW or 150kW motor controller/inverter,
and this Dual Stack version is ideal for very high output applications. Requires dual
controllers for operation.
Motor Diameter: 10.5 Inches

Motor Case Length: 11.25 Inches
Motor Shaft Length End to End: 18.5 Inches
Motor Type: Brushless Permanent Magnet
Brushes: No
Weight: 180 lbs.
Max Voltage Input: 360 Volts
Integrated Sensors: Encoder, temperature
Rated Torque: 560 Lb Ft Peak (w/150kW controller)
Rated Power: 420 HP Peak (w/150kW controller)
Max RPM: 10,000
Drive End Shaft: 32 spline 35.5 mm
Thermal Cooling: Internal oil pump with water heat exchange
Warranty Period:1 Year
Vitality Complex &
Vertical Farming 2015
Real time:
High Risk and High ROI
Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved. CONNECT: www.4spx, tamer@4spx.com and +1(858) 733.8888
Many Products &/or Services !!!
& Much Much More
Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved. CONNECT: tamer@4spx.com, www.4spx.com & +1(858) 733.8888 38
Many Concepts !!!
Excellent References - Thank you

So Many Applications !!!
NASA - Hydroponic
NASA - Aeroponic Nevada Naturals 10,000 Pound Greenhouse, Nevada USA

Rose Farm, Australia Emirates Hydroponics Farms, UAE
Washington, USA C&S Hydro-Huts is a family-run hydroponic farm
Michigan - Bowerman Blueberries & Strawberries-Hydroponic Farm USA

The Mirak Group, UAE
Indonesia, The Amazing Farm.
Commercial Hydroponics - UK & Europe
Urban Oasis Hydroponic Farm, Florida USA
Vertical and rooftop agriculture gain momentum in Cairo,

Egypt 4/7/11 Village Farms Canada, USA (Texas, Delaware, New Jersey & Washington) & Mexico & Much More
Complex 4 Vitality
The project was approved and not

implemented, it contained:
1. Hydroponics
2. Stem Cell Bank
3. Water Plant
4. Medical Clinic
5. Vitality Center
6. Restaurant(s)
7. R&D
8. Incubator of Health Projects
Anticipated Future
2011-2021
The Future Business Environment is highly ”TURBULENT”, characterized by

unpredictability, discontinuity, uncertainty, novelty, and surprises. Attractive
results are: Health and wealth leading to an outstanding life. Therefore, the
following strategic issues are deterministic to strategic objectives:
•Population increase
•Food & Water shortage
•Questionable Food & Water quality
•Health Ramifications
•Nutritional Ambiguity
•Increasing Cost(s) Food, Water and Health Care
•Complexity encompasses Technological, Political, Economic, Educational, Religious,
Societal & other variables that impact decision making.
•&, gaps between two or more of the above
Strategic Large-scale farming (SLSF) can change individuals, societies,
and be a stabilizer in a current & future turbulent business environment.
+1(858) 733.8888
80+ Markets
Middle East - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates & Yemen.
Population of 66,200,675 Million.
Asia - China, Philippine, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma/Myanmar, Malaysia, Indonesia,
Sri Lanka, Pakistan & India. Population of 3,309,062,303 Billion.
Australia - New Zealand & Australia. Population of 26,342,366 Million.
Africa - Madagascar, South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan,
Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia &
Ivory Coast. Population of 530,004,853 Million.
North America, USA - Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut,
New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia,
Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Hawaii, California, Oregon & Washington.
Population of 307,928,000 Million.
South America - Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Columbia, Venezuela,
Guyana, Suriname & French Guiana. Population of 367,758,711 Million.
Total Population of 4,607,296,908 Billion.

+1(858) 733.8888

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TURBULENCE

by Dr. Tamer Tamer Salameh

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

*Mainly based on Russell L. Ackoff

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Goal Capability Entrepreneurship

*Mainly based on H. Igor Ansoff & Many Sources**

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Stage 2 Denial of Stage 4

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975 in the UK

Japanese asset price bubble (1986–1992)

1997 Asian financial crisis

2007-2009 Financial Crisis

2000s energy crisis (2003-2009) oil price bubble

2008 Latvian financial crisis

2014 Russian financial crisis

2012-2017 Venezuela crisis

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights Reserved.

1. Speed of Change – Faster Than Response

IV. Health Multi –ideological &

VI. Geographical Epistemological

Make Starting Price

Make & Price:

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights

Honda FCEV Concept is debuted at the Los Angeles Auto

2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 Year

I. Develop an Electric Vehicle (EV): 1- EV

III. Open & Wide Range Design with Central

IV. Global Network of State-of-the-Art

9- Energy from Solar Roof 8- Energy from Household Plug

1- Energy from Front Wind Turbines 7- Energy from Solar Back

2- Energy from Bottom Wind Turbines

3- Energy from Sides Wind Turbines

6- Energy from Breaks Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All

2- Front Wind Fans

Sides: Energy from Wind

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All

AM Racing AMR Dual Stack 250-90 AC Motor - Liquid

Motor Diameter: 10.5 Inches

& Much Much More

Excellent References - Thank you

NASA - Aeroponic Nevada Naturals 10,000 Pound Greenhouse, Nevada USA

Washington, USA C&S Hydro-Huts is a family-run hydroponic farm

Michigan - Bowerman Blueberries & Strawberries-Hydroponic Farm USA

Indonesia, The Amazing Farm.

Commercial Hydroponics - UK & Europe

Urban Oasis Hydroponic Farm, Florida USA

Vertical and rooftop agriculture gain momentum in Cairo,

The project was approved and not

The Future Business Environment is highly ”TURBULENT”, characterized by

Total Population of 4,607,296,908 Billion.

Copyright© 2019 Tamer Tamer Salameh, All Rights

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