Four-Step Travel Model

Step 1: Trip generation - How many trips are generated?

Step one of the process is to determine the number of daily trips that take place in the region. This procedure is
called trip generation, and it estimates the number of "trip ends" produced in and/or attracted to each transportation
analysis zone (TAZ) in the region. Each trip is made of two "trip ends," one at the production end of the trip and one
at the attraction end of the trip.

In the TPB model, eight trip purposes are modeled. Five are for person travel: home-based work (HBW) trips, home-
based shop (HBS), home-based other (HBO), non-home-based work (NHW), and non-home-based other (NHO).
Two are for truck travel - medium truck and heavy-duty truck - and one is for non-freight commercial vehicles (e.g.,
delivery trucks, service vehicles). School trips are included in the home-based other trip purpose.

The number of trip ends produced and attracted to each zone is estimated using certain assumptions about the
number of trips typically made by each type of household and to each type of destination in the region. We use
special factors to account for different rates of trip-making that are characteristic of different parts of the region. These
assumptions and special factors are included in the equations used to derive the trips for each zone in the region. For
example, a household in an inner suburb such as Arlington County with one car is assumed to make fewer shopping
trips than a household in the outer suburbs with two cars. (In general, the level of auto ownership has been found to
be a good predictor of household trip rates.)

In the trip generation procedure, one assumes that the land activity (e.g., jobs and households) in each zone results
in the "production" and "attraction" of trips (actually trip ends). A trip end that is produced in a zone is called a
"production." A trip end that is attracted to a zone is called an "attraction." The convention for whether a trip end is a
production or attraction is based on the following two rules: A home-based trip is produced at the home and attracted
to the non-home end (regardless of the direction of travel). A non-home-based trip is produced at the origin of the trip
and attracted to the destination of the trip.

A set of equations is used to estimate the number of trips produced by and attracted to each zone based on its
residential and employment characteristics. These estimates rely on the actual or projected employment in the zone
to determine how many workers and shoppers it attracts. The more employment a zone has, the more work trips it
attracts. The more retail employees in a zone, the more shopping trips are assumed to be attracted there.

The Version 2.3 Travel Model estimates both motorized person trips and non-motorized person trips. Motorized
person trips include both those made in private vehicles (e.g., cars, vans, trucks) and those made in public transit
(e.g., buses, subways, commuter rail trains). Non-motorized person trips include walk and bike/bicycle trips. Although
non-motorized trips are estimated in the trip generation step, they are not carried further into trip distribution, mode
choice, and traffic assignment, due to various challenges (e.g., many of these trips are quite short, often not travelling
outside of the zone where they are produced).

When the trip generation procedure is completed, we have an estimate of the number of motorized person trip ends
produced and attracted to each zone. The next step, trip distribution, will match up all of the trip ends, creating actual
trips.
Step 2: Trip distribution - Where do the trips go?

In step two, trip distribution, the motorized person "trip ends" developed in trip generation are linked geographically
into complete trips, from an origin/production zone to a destination/attraction zone. For example, the work trip ends
"produced" by a zone in Gaithersburg, Maryland are matched with the work trip ends "attracted" by other zones
throughout the region. When trip ends are linked to create complete trips, the linking may occur within the same zone,
or between adjacent zones, or between zones that are some distance apart, such as a zone in Gaithersburg and a
zone in downtown Washington, D.C. The same process is used to connect all of the trip ends produced in or attracted
to various zones in the region into complete trips.

The modeling process for trip distribution relies on the general assumption that time spent traveling is perceived
negatively; the more distant the destination, the more burdensome the trip. Most of the trips produced in a given zone
will be attracted to surrounding or nearby zones; some will be attracted to moderately distant zones; and very few will
be attracted to very distant zones. (The effect of travel time in discouraging trips is more pronounced for non-work
trips than for commute trips, where trips fall off less sharply with distance.)

This general principle is translated into a mathematical procedure known as a "gravity model," with the effect of travel
time represented as a "friction factor." Once completed, this procedure yields a set of motorized person trips,
contained in "trip tables," made from and to each zone in the region. Trip tables are produced for each trip purpose.

In the next step, the mode choice model is used to predict the likely travel modes of all travelers in the region.

The third step of the modeling process is known as mode choice. The current TPB travel model, known as the
Version 2.3 Travel Model, uses a nested choice structure as shown below:

The mode choice model includes only "motorized person trips," as defined here. The model includes three auto
modes (drive alone, shared ride 2-person, and shared ride 3+person) and four transit modes (commuter rail, all bus,
all Metrorail, and combined bus/Metrorail) by three modes of access to transit (park and ride, kiss and ride, and walk).
Although the nesting structure does not include explicit branches for specialized transit modes - such as light-rail
transit (LRT), bus rapid transit (BRT), and streetcar - the model is designed to deal with these special transit modes
(See Chapter 11 of the user’s guide, which can be found on this page, for details).

The mode choice model assumes that these choices are based on the relative availability and attractiveness of each
mode. Factors considered in the attractiveness of the mode include:
  Travel time for each mode,
 Travel cost for each mode,
 Accessibility of mass transit,
 Automobile ownership, and
 Proximity to carpool lanes.

The cost variables represent "out of pocket" costs, including transit fares, the price of gasoline, parking, and a
mileage rate for driving. Time variables include time spent waiting for transit, time transferring between routes, or time
spent parking and “unparking” a car (known as "excess time"). The mode choice factors are arrayed in an equation
that estimates the probability of each traveler selecting each mode, given the characteristics of both the mode and
the traveler.

Among the most important factors in mode choice are the average parking costs and the time it takes to walk to the
final destination from parking spaces or transit stops. Average parking costs for each zone are based on the zonal
density of work trip attractions. Thus, heavily used downtown zones have the highest parking costs, and zones with
fewer workers per square mile have lower parking costs.

Since access to transit is such an important determinant of whether travelers will choose transit, before the travel
model is run, we use a GIS-based procedure to determine the share of each TAZ that is within a short-walk to transit
(less than one-half mile) and a long-walk to transit (between on-half mile and one mile).

Step 4: Trip assignment - What is the route of each trip?

The final step in the forecasting of travel behavior is to determine the routes travelers choose to reach their
destinations. This step is known as trip assignment. Onlymotorized person trips are assigned, which includes both
trips made by automobile/car and trips made by public transit. The previous travel model, the Version 2.2 Travel
Model, assigned only those made by private vehicles (cars, vans, trucks). The new travel model, the Version 2.3
Travel Model, adds a new capability: the ability to assign transit trips. Private-vehicle trips and truck trips are assigned
to the highway network ("traffic assignment") and public transit trips area assigned to the transit network ("transit
assignment").

Before conducting traffic assignment and transit assignment, the model must build minimum-impedance paths
between all zone pairs in the region. Since the current modeled are has 3,722 transportation analysis zones (TAZs),
the number of paths is 3,722 squared, or about 13.9 million zone pairs.

For highway path building and highway assignment, the effects of congestion are taken into account. First of all, each
road link has a link performance function, also known as a volume-delay function (VDF), which models the fact that
as more traffic uses a link, the effective speed of vehicles on that link decreases. There are different VDFs for each
type of road, i.e., freeways, major arterials, minor arterials, collectors, and expressways, thus taking into account the
differing carrying capacity of different road types. Second, there is an iterative nature to each traffic assignment, with
the iteration stopping when a defined level of convergence is reached. Third, since the congested link speeds coming
out of traffic assignment have an effect on trip distribution and mode choice, these congested link speeds are fed
back into prior modeling steps (a process known as speed feedback) to ensure that the system is in equilibrium.

For transit network path building and transit assignment, the model is not currently sensitive to congestion effects.
Although the Metropolitan Washington Region is arguably a region where crowding on transit is an issue, the current
TPB model, like most transit assignment models in the U.S. is not able to account for the effects of crowding on
transit (See, for example, page 9-25 of Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 2010. Travel Model Validation and
Reasonability Checking Manual, Second Edition, Washington, D.C.: Travel Model Improvement Program, Federal
Highway Administration.