Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonde
deadly weapon if you wish t
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORA
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1,646 Remember! Focus on decisio
Face Value (Rs) 2.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 173.2
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 285,092

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 15.9% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've de
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 21.3% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 19.6% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 4.3 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 15.1%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 24.4
Latest P/E (x) 12.2
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be a
deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Equity Share Capital 287 293 295 309 312 315 316 318 335 344
Reserves 17,895 20,897 23,921 31,581 37,263 44,757 50,534 59,690 91,488 ###
Borrowings 98,463 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Other Liabilities 27,329 36,060 45,694 56,282 68,801 87,097 98,573 ### ### ###
Total ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Net Block 613 808 842 851 1,002 1,470 1,568 2,266 2,349 2,310
Capital Work in Progress - 3 7 32 21 9 19 54 23 24
Investments 32,743 41,597 48,639 59,492 72,914 93,782 ### ### ### ###
Other Assets ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Total ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Working Capital 83,290 96,839 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Debtors 260 397 633 216 377 458 467 1,482 245 612
Inventory 0 - - - - - - - - -
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 4 6 8 2 3 3 3 9 1 2
Inventory Turnover ### - - - - - - - - -
Fixed Asset Turnover 41.5 31.9 36.0 42.3 40.7 32.9 33.9 26.9 33.8 41.4
Debt/Equity 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.9 3.7 3.5
Return on Equity 14% 17% 19% 17% 17% 15% 16% 14% 14% 16%
Return on Capital Employed 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Trailing
Sales 25,413 25,765 30,276 35,948 40,753 48,316 53,223 61,034 79,474 95,694 ###
% Growth YOY 1% 18% 19% 13% 19% 10% 15% 30% 20%
Expenses 14,188 12,623 12,484 14,170 15,314 19,516 21,228 26,377 44,714 51,819 60,632
Material Cost (% of Sales) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3%
Operating Profit 11,225 13,142 17,792 21,778 25,439 28,799 31,995 34,657 34,760 43,875 52,938
Operating Profit Margin 44% 51% 59% 61% 62% 60% 60% 57% 44% 46% 47%
Other Income 39 28 27 39 61 74 34 53 6,282 7,891 6,629
Other Income as % of Sales 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 7.9% 8.2% 5.8%
Depreciation 91 49 51 54 47 47 121 108 116 141 245
Interest 7,289 7,876 11,552 14,296 16,608 18,710 20,296 21,953 24,718 29,525 31,975
Interest Coverage(Times) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Profit before tax (PBT) 3,884 5,244 6,217 7,467 8,846 10,117 11,613 12,650 16,207 22,099 27,348
% Growth YOY 35% 19% 20% 18% 14% 15% 9% 28% 36%
PBT Margin 15% 20% 21% 21% 22% 21% 22% 21% 20% 23% 24%
Tax 1,255 1,539 1,727 2,002 2,358 3,166 3,639 4,021 3,096 4,518 4,052
Net profit 2,629 3,705 4,490 5,465 6,488 6,951 7,974 8,629 13,111 17,581 23,296
% Growth YOY 41% 21% 22% 19% 7% 15% 8% 52% 34%
Net Profit Margin 10% 14% 15% 15% 16% 14% 15% 14% 16% 18% 21%
EPS 18.3 25.3 30.4 35.3 41.6 44.1 50.5 54.3 78.2 102.1 134.5
% Growth YOY 38% 20% 16% 18% 6% 14% 8% 44% 31%
Price to earning 29.7 27.8 22.1 23.4 21.3 29.8 21.9 27.7 23.3 19.3 12.2
Price 543 701 673 826 884 1,316 1,106 1,502 1,826 1,968 1,646
Dividend Payout 31.9% 29.2% 29.7% 29.1% 27.5% 27.0% 26.4% 25.9% 28.0% 22.3%
Market Cap 78,014 102,858 99,444 127,767 ### ### ### ### ### ###
Retained Earnings 1,791 2,625 3,154 3,874 4,704 5,077 5,872 6,396 9,443 13,665
Buffett's $1 Test 4.6

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 15.9% 17.9% 18.6% 21.6%
PBT Growth 21.3% 19.9% 20.1% 23.9%
PBT Margin 20.6% 21.3% 21.4% 21.4%
Price to Earning 24.6 23.8 24.4 23.4

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 677 ### ### ### ### -9,118 ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YoY -1785% 54% -32% -10% -15% 116% -28% 309% -24%
Cash from Investing Activity ### -7,857 -6,275 ### ### ### -9,309 ### -7,954 ### ###
Cash from Financing Activity 13,011 19,801 23,194 23,174 25,719 24,820 29,111 43,127 63,344 54,986 320,286
Net Cash Flow 3,071 542 -615 992 2,000 -2,850 92 1,718 -2,538 369 2,782
CFO/Sales 3% -44% -58% -33% -26% -19% -37% -23% -73% -46%
CFO/Net Profit 26% -308% -391% -219% -165% -131% -247% -164% -442% -252%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 361 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Average FCF (3 Years) -40,034
FCF Growth YoY -3313% 54% -30% -10% -11% 108% -24% 274% -24%
FCF/Sales 1% -45% -59% -35% -28% -21% -39% -26% -74% -47%
FCF/Net Profit 11% -256% -328% -189% -143% -115% -205% -143% -494% -278%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Sales Growth 1.4% 17.5% 18.7% 13.4% 18.6% 10.2% 14.7% 30.2%
PBT Growth 35.0% 18.5% 20.1% 18.5% 14.4% 14.8% 8.9% 28.1%
Net Profit Growth 40.9% 21.2% 21.7% 18.7% 7.1% 14.7% 8.2% 51.9%
Dividend Growth 27.7% 23.1% 19.0% 13.0% 8.1% 13.7% 6.5% 17.2%
Operating Cash Flow Growth ### 53.8% -31.7% -10.3% -15.1% 116.2% -28.1% 308.7%
Free Cash Flow Growth ### 54.1% -30.0% -9.5% -11.3% 107.5% -24.2% 274.2%

Operating Margin 44.2% 51.0% 58.8% 60.6% 62.4% 59.6% 60.1% 56.8% 43.7%
PBT Margin 15.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.8% 21.7% 20.9% 21.8% 20.7% 20.4%
Net Margin 10.3% 14.4% 14.8% 15.2% 15.9% 14.4% 15.0% 14.1% 16.5%

Debtor Days 3.7 5.6 7.6 2.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 8.9 1.1
Inventory Turnover ### - - - - - - - -
Fixed Asset Turnover 41.5 31.9 36.0 42.3 40.7 32.9 33.9 26.9 33.8
Debt/Equity 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.9 3.7
Debt/Assets 68.4% 67.3% 67.1% 65.0% 64.2% 62.2% 62.5% 61.8% 59.1%
Interest Coverage (Times) 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
Return on Equity 14.5% 17.5% 18.5% 17.1% 17.3% 15.4% 15.7% 14.4% 14.3%
Return on Capital Employed 9.6% 9.4% 10.7% 11.1% 11.2% 11.0% 10.6% 9.8% 9.6%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 361 -11,614 ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Mar/19
20.4%
36.4%
34.1%
7.9%
-23.5%
-23.7%

45.8%
23.1%
18.4%

2.3
-
41.4
3.5
58.2%
1.7
15.7%
10.4%
###
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
70% Profit Margin 20%
Capital Allo
Check for a rising trend a
60% Numbers > 20% long term
50% 15% has zero/marginal debt. C
40%
10%
30%
20% 5%
10% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/10 Jan/12

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin RO

120,000
Revenue 60% Revenue and P
Check for a rising trend. Check for a r
100,000 50% Compare gro

80,000 40%
60,000 30%
40,000 20%
20,000 10%
- 0%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/11 Jan/13Gro
Revenue
Net Profit Gr

25,000 Profit Over Time Operating an

10,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numb
- which are rising over ti
20,000 -10,000 Jan/10 Jan/12
15,000 -20,000
-30,000
10,000 -40,000
5,000 -50,000
-60,000
- -70,000
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Operating Margin 44% 51% 59% 61% 62% 60% 60% 57% 44%
PBT Margin 15% 20% 21% 21% 22% 21% 22% 21% 20%
Net Margin 10% 14% 15% 15% 16% 14% 15% 14% 16%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
ROE 14% 17% 19% 17% 17% 15% 16% 14% 14%
ROCE 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Revenue Growth 1% 18% 19% 13% 19% 10% 15% 30% 20%
PBT Growth 35% 19% 20% 18% 14% 15% 9% 28% 36%
Net Profit Growth 41% 21% 22% 19% 7% 15% 8% 52% 34%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue 25,413 25,765 30,276 35,948 40,753 48,316 53,223 61,034 79,474
PBT 3,884 5,244 6,217 7,467 8,846 10,117 11,613 12,650 16,207
Net Profit 2,629 3,705 4,490 5,465 6,488 6,951 7,974 8,629 13,111

Cash Flows
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Operating Cash Flow 677 -11,402 -17,534 -11,969 -10,735 -9,118 -19,710 -14,173 -57,928
Free Cash Flow 361 -11,614 -17,898 -12,534 -11,342 -10,055 -20,866 -15,811 -59,166
 Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year

Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

Jan/11 Jan/13GrowthJan/15 PBT Growth

Revenue Jan/17 Jan/19
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
0
0
0
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

 Mar/19
46%
23%
18%

Mar/19
16%
10%

Mar/19
95,694
22,099
17,581

Mar/19
-44,301
-45,126
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Change in Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Employee Cost 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3%
Selling and Admin Cost 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3%
Other Expenses 54% 47% 39% 37% 35% 38% 37% 41% 49% 48%
Operating Profit 44% 51% 59% 61% 62% 60% 60% 57% 44% 46%
Other Income 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 8%
Depreciation 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Interest 29% 31% 38% 40% 41% 39% 38% 36% 31% 31%
Profit Before Tax 15% 20% 21% 21% 22% 21% 22% 21% 20% 23%
Tax 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 4% 5%
Net Profit 13% 18% 18% 18% 20% 18% 19% 18% 15% 17%
Dividend Amount 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 12% 12% 11% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 16% 17%
Borrowings 68% 67% 67% 65% 64% 62% 63% 62% 59% 58%
Other Liabilities 19% 21% 22% 22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 25% 25%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Capital Work in Progress 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Investments 23% 24% 23% 24% 25% 27% 26% 28% 30% 33%
Other Assets 77% 76% 77% 76% 75% 73% 73% 72% 69% 67%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cash & Bank 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORP

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (46,039) (41,107) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (52,945) (42,208) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (60,887) (43,338) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (66,976) (42,564) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (73,673) (41,804) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (81,041) (41,058) Sales 19% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (85,093) (38,492) PBT 20% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (89,347) (36,086) FCF 32% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (93,815) (33,831) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (98,505) (31,716) 10 FY27
10 -985,054 (317,161) 10
Intrinsic Value (703,535) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 285,092 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -141% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(48,041) (42,894) Year 4-6 15%
(57,649) (45,958) Year 7-10 10%
(69,179) (49,240) Discount Rate 12%
(79,556) (50,559)
(91,489) (51,914)
(105,213) (53,304)
(115,734) (52,352)
(127,308) (51,417)
(140,038) (50,499)
(154,042) (49,597)
(2,310,632) (743,962)
Intrinsic Value (1,235,868)
Current Mkt. Cap. 285,092
Premium/(Discount) to IV -123%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name NCE CORPORATION LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/19 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 10,849.0 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 11.0 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 331,598 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 285,092 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
NCE CORPORATION LTD
Mar/19

10,849.0
8.5
22.1

570,980
285,092

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (40,034) ###

###
Years 1-5 6-10 -320%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) ###

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (46,039) 15% (41,107)
2 (52,945) 15% (42,208)
3 (60,887) 15% (43,338)
4 (70,020) 15% (44,499)
5 (80,523) 15% (45,691)
6 (90,186) 12% (45,691)
7 ### 12% (45,691)
8 ### 12% (45,691)
9 ### 12% (45,691)
10 ### 12% (45,691)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year ###
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
CORPORATION LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD
Particulars Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 3,241 4,528 5,463 6,640 7,948 8,763 ###
Net Profit Margin 13% 18% 18% 18% 20% 18% 19%
Return on Equity 14% 17% 19% 17% 17% 15% 16%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 50,413
Current P/E (x) 17.6
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) ###
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 324,635
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 285,092

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
RATION LTD
Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
### ### ### 20% 15%
18% 15% 17%
14% 14% 16%
 Intrinsic Value Range
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho ### ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham 331,598 ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF ### understand this business?
Expected Return 324,635
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 285,092 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATI
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Sales ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YOY 38% 46% 35% 18% 43% 18%
Expenses 7,558 7,523 ### 9,587 ### ### ### ### ### ###
Operating Profit 9,019 9,318 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Other Income 6 3,454 12 1,020 3,828 679 2,255 1,391 1,255 1,729
Depreciation 23 19 19 31 32 46 33 63 68 82
Interest 5,834 5,851 6,023 6,699 7,427 7,745 7,655 8,207 8,217 7,896
Profit before tax 3,169 6,902 4,396 4,359 7,314 4,321 6,106 4,579 ### 4,601
PBT Margin 19% 41% 21% 22% 32% 18% 21% 20% 37% 16%
% Growth YOY 131% -37% 39% 5% 65% 6%
Tax 966 1,016 1,026 1,063 1,217 944 1,294 1,040 1,313 404
Net profit 2,869 6,682 3,961 2,942 5,759 3,038 4,492 3,094 ### 3,835
% Growth YOY 101% -55% 13% 5% 80% 26%
OPM 54% 55% 49% 51% 48% 47% 40% 50% 58% 37%
COMPANY NAME HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE C
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 173.20
Face Value 2
Current Price 1646.05
Market Capitalization 285092.1

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Sales 25413.3 25765.08 30275.78 35948.18 40753.17 48315.69
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory
Power and Fuel 11.71 13.04 14.24 17.3 20.55 21.18
Other Mfr. Exp 13.9 17.53 19.54 54.73 62.7 70.16
Employee Cost 318.44 371.47 449 532.8 602.51 706.39
Selling and admin 180.43 195.58 227.87 243.11 293.45 322.24
Other Expenses 13663.39 12025.87 11772.92 13321.99 14334.76 18396.52
Other Income 38.5 27.55 27.08 38.75 61.39 74.34
Depreciation 91.44 48.92 50.64 54.2 46.85 46.63
Interest 7288.86 7876.07 11551.92 14295.52 16607.89 18710.29
Profit before tax 3883.63 5244.15 6216.73 7467.28 8845.85 10116.62
Tax 1254.52 1539.32 1726.96 2002.03 2358.34 3165.7
Net profit 3240.98 4528.41 5462.51 6639.72 7947.82 8762.62
Dividend Amount 1033.6 1320.16 1624.64 1932.94 2184.7 2362.05

Quarters
Report Date Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 16577.12 16840.51 21242.61 19654.87 22908.31 24587.35
Expenses 7557.74 7522.87 10817.33 9586.81 11964.06 13154.03
Other Income 5.98 3454.31 12.46 1020.37 3827.78 678.93
Depreciation 22.7 19.06 18.97 31.11 31.85 45.97
Interest 5,834.02 5,850.62 6,022.86 6,698.76 7,426.68 7,745.07
Profit before tax 3168.64 6902.27 4395.91 4358.56 7313.5 4321.21
Tax 965.52 1015.65 1025.8 1063.23 1216.65 944.16
Net profit 2869.41 6681.54 3961.17 2942.26 5759.19 3038.33
Operating Profit 9019.38 9317.64 10425.28 10068.06 10944.25 11433.32

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Equity Share Capital 287.11 293.37 295.39 309.27 312.1 314.94
Reserves 17895.12 20896.75 23920.64 31581.29 37262.51 44756.69
Borrowings 98,463.33 ### ### ### ### ###
Other Liabilities 27329.26 36059.57 45694.02 56281.63 68800.89 87096.82
Total 143974.82 175306.16 212389.25 251834.99 296977.47 349525.18
Net Block 612.54 807.56 841.87 850.58 1002.24 1470.23
Capital Work in Progress 3.14 6.57 32.48 21.04 8.98
Investments 32743.06 41,596.98 48638.85 59492.42 72914.21 93782.42
Other Assets 110619.22 132898.48 162901.96 191459.51 223039.98 254263.55
Total 143974.82 175306.16 212389.25 251834.99 296977.47 349525.18
Receivables 259.57 397.37 632.63 216.02 376.79 457.79
Inventory 0.16
Cash & Bank 6276.49 6818.46 6481.36 7071.67 8588.11 4261.92
No. of Equity Shares 287110222 1.467E+09 1.477E+09 1.546E+09 1.561E+09 1.575E+09
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 2 2 2 2 2

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Cash from Operating Activity 676.56 -11402.29 -17534.34 -11969.28 -10734.9 -9118.19
Cash from Investing Activity -10616.34 -7856.56 -6274.63 -10212.34 -12983.44 -18552.12
Cash from Financing Activity 13010.79 19800.75 23193.93 23173.97 25718.53 24820.38
Net Cash Flow 3071.01 541.9 -615.04 992.35 2000.19 -2849.93

PRICE: 543.44 701.2 673.3 826.25 883.9 1315.7

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 143.56 146.69 147.70 154.63 156.05 157.47
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

53222.93 61034.35 79473.86 95693.52

23.76 25.1 26.98 28.91

84.57 93.35 287.44 338.41
796.8 923.35 3406.21 2980.37
473.1 546.26 2419.3 2723.37
19849.79 24788.89 38573.84 45747.87
34.18 53.28 6282.1 7891.17
120.52 107.98 116.48 141.47
20295.6 21953.15 24,718.46 29,525.33
11612.97 12649.55 16207.25 22098.96
3639.34 4020.79 3096.04 4518.45
10190.26 11051.12 11979.9 16231.76
2685.74 2859.57 3351.8 3615.05

Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

28652.48 23124.73 32796.5 28996.17
17114.03 11667 13704.39 18146.44
2254.6 1390.74 1255.39 1728.76
32.54 62.56 68 81.7
7,654.82 8,206.55 8,217.33 7,896.00
6105.69 4579.36 12062.17 4600.79
1294.41 1039.64 1313.48 404.31
4491.98 3094.38 10388.61 3835.38
11538.45 11457.73 19092.11 10849.73

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

315.97 317.73 335.18 344.29
 50533.61 59690.48 91487.7 111388.85
### 293,794.62 336,416.45 386,755.10
98573.39 121542.74 141213.33 165494.48
398840.62 475345.57 569452.66 663982.72
1568.25 2266.03 2349.48 2310.32
18.71 53.68 23.42 24.22
104720.74 132855.28 172217.55 217724.8
292532.92 340170.58 394862.21 443923.38
398840.62 475345.57 569452.66 663982.72
466.8 1482.43 245.11 611.99

6397.03 7496.78 3128.54 4536.54

1.58E+09 1588672140 1675879893 1721437390

2 2 2 2

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

-19710.41 -14173.09 -57928.02 -44301.42
-9308.58 -27235.77 -7953.65 -10315.61
29110.59 43127.31 63344.1 54985.63
91.6 1718.45 -2537.57 368.6

1105.6 1502.1 1825.6 1968.25

157.98 158.87 167.59 172.14

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