Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
The What-If Model will allow a team the ability to model the potential financial impact of a variety of initiatives upo
This scenario, or “what-if”, modeling will incorporate the company’s historical financial statements and five-year pro
provided by the Quantitative Model. The historical and projected financial statements provided by the client will ser
state. The inputs provided by the Quantitative Model provide the variables to be modeled with the client projections
provide expected changes in financial statements and financial statement metrics from the base assumptions. These
target and prioritize the scenarios with the greatest expected benefits. This prioritization will aid further discussions
further work to be performed.
The model is segregated into four sections: inputs, calculations, statements, and analysis. Only the input section is e
protected and read only. The model’s format does have the capacity to be modified quickly. For example, if a subje
cannot be fit into the current format, the current format can be appended or changed to accommodate the different fo
assumptions are inaccurate, they can also be altered to accommodate company-specific assumptions. Outlined below
how particular areas operate within the section. Sections Two – Four are protected and therefore have no operationa
Input Template:
Project Costs
Segregate Capitalized and Expensed Project Costs based on the expenditure characteristics.
Include project fees
Historical Financial Information
Income Statement - Based on audited financial report data, categorize revenues and expenses into the broad categorie
Balance Sheet - Further, categorize assets, liabilities and equity into the appropriate balance sheet line items provided
Operating Assumptions
Pre-Implementation and Base Year: these are darkened to illustrate that they are not inputs, but calculations for infor
Income Statement Assumptions are percentage changes in the current year from the prior year.
Balance Sheet Assumptions are the assumption’s percentage of total assets.
Post-Implementation:
Sales revenue growth percentages are used for all projected years. The financial statements use these percentages by
dollars by one plus
The following theprojected
items’ growth rate for costs
years’ each are
yearconstant
(compounding).
(i.e. equal to the base year) and are direct inputs from histor
other accrued expenses, taxes payable, other current liabilities, long-term notes payable, deferred taxes payable, pref
dividend distribution to common shareholders.
The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: R&D expenses, G&A expenses, interest
payable, and distributions payable. The financial statements use these percentages by multiplying the prior year doll
for each year. Growth is not proportionate to sales.
The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: selling expenses, accounts receivable, inv
current assets, other noncurrent assets, accounts payable, unearned revenue, and current portion of long-term debt. T
prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input. Further, this product is multiplied by one plus the sales growth i
proportionally with sales.
The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: selling expenses, accounts receivable, inv
current assets, other noncurrent assets, accounts payable, unearned revenue, and current portion of long-term debt. T
prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input. Further, this product is multiplied by one plus the sales growth i
proportionally with sales.
Machinery & Equipment and Building and Plant, for all projected years, are estimated capital expenditures in whole
lysis. Only the input section is editable. All other sections are
quickly. For example, if a subject business’s financial statements
to accommodate the different format. Additionally, if the operating
ific assumptions. Outlined below is a description of Section One, and
and therefore have no operational details.
MODEL INPUT
I
Project 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Project Costs-Capitalized 5 0 0 0 0
Project Costs-Expensed 1 1 1 1 1
II
Historical Financial Information Pre-Implementation Base Year*
Income Statement 1996 1997 1998 1999
Preferred Dividends 0
MODEL INPUT
Historical Financial Information Pre-Implementation Base Year*
Balance Sheet 1996 1997 1998 1999
Current Assets
Cash 1,652
Accounts Receivable 6,860
Inventory 5,472
Prepaid Expenses 875
Other Current Assets 4,790
Noncurrent Assets
Machinery and Equipment 0
Building and Plant 61,962
Accumulated Depreciation 0
Deferred Income Tax Asset 0
Other Noncurrent Assets 2,534
Intangible Assets
Deferred Fin./ License/Startup 0
Goodwill 0
Other Intangibles 0
Accumulated Amortization 0
Current Liabilities
Interest Payable 0
Accounts Payable 0 7,677
Other Accrued Expenses 4,445
Unearned Revenue 0
Notes Payable 4,109
Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0
Taxes Payable 2,359
Distributions Payable 0
Other Current Liabilities 8,153
Noncurrent Liabilities
Long-Term Notes 10,901
Deferred Income Tax Liability 10,939
Deferred Taxes Payable 770
Shareholder Equity
Retained Earnings 49,365
Common Equity 2,822
Additional Paid-in Capital 0
Preferred Stock 668
Treasury Stock (16,977)
Other Equity (1,086)
Number of Shares - Common Stock 2,428
* Current or Post-Implementation Year
MODEL INPUT
III Pre-Implementation Base Year* Post-Implementation Growth
Operating Assumptions 1996 1997 1998 1999 Benchmark 2000 2001 2002 2003
Income Statement Assumptions
Projected Expenses
Interest Expense 0 0 0 647 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2004
5.00%
250
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.0%
Post-Implementation Percentages
46.0%
54.0%
MODEL INPUT
Pre-Implementation Base Year* Post-Implementation Growth
Operating Assumptions 1996 1997 1998 1999 Benchmark 2000 2001 2002 2003
Balance Sheet Items
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Inventory #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prepaid Expenses #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Current Assets #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Noncurrent Assets
Capital Expenditures:
Machinery and Equipment 0 0 #DIV/0! 0% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Building and Plant 0 0 0 74% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other Noncurrent Assets #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current Liabilities
Interest Payable 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0%
Accounts Payable #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Accrued Expenses 0 0 0 4,445 0% 0% 0% 0%
Unearned Revenue #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notes Payable 0 0 0 4,109 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current Portion of Long Term Debt #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taxes Payable 0 0 0 2,359 0% 0% 0% 0%
Distributions Payable 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0 8,153 0% 0% 0% 0%
Noncurrent Liabilities
Long-Term Notes Payable 0 0 0 10,901 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deferred Taxes Payable 0 0 0 770 0% 0% 0% 0%
Equity Assumptions
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 668 668 668 668 668
Treasury Stock 0 0 0 (16,977) (16,977) (16,977) (16,977) (16,977)
Cash Flow Assumptions
Preferred Stock Dividends 6%
Dividend Distributions to Common Shareholders
2004
0%
0%
0%
0%
$0.00
$0.00
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
668
(16,977)
MODEL INPUT
IV
Intangible Assets Amortization Percent
Period Amortizable
Goodwill 40
Other Intangibles 5
Project Costs-Capitalized 10
V
Additional Assumptions
Asset Lives
Machinery and Equipment 7
CALCULATIONS
Book Depreciation Existing 2000 2001 2002
Existing Basis Life Basis
Machinery and Equipment 7 0 0 0 0
Building and Plant 12.70 61,962 4,879 4,879 4,879
Total 4,879 4,879 4,879
2003 2004
0 ###
0
4,879 4,879
4,879 4,879
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0
0
0
4,879 4,879
CALCULATIONS
Income Taxes 2000 2001 2002
2003 2004
48,951 52,063
48,951 52,063
0 0
48,951 52,063
42,132 44,810
42,132 44,810
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
CALCULATIONS
Intangible Asset Amortization Existing 2000 2001 2002
Life Basis
Lic. Agr. / Def. Fin. 10
Beginning Balance 0 0 0
Amortization 0 0 0
Ending Balance 0 0 0
Goodwill 40
Beginning Balance 0 0 0
Amortization 0 0 0
Ending Balance 0 0 0
Other Intangibles 5
Beginning Balance 0 0 0
Amortization 0 0 0
Ending Balance 0 0 0
Total Amortization 0 1 1
2003 2004
0 0
0 0
0 ###
0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 1
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 ###
0
0 0
0
0
0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 1
CALCULATIONS
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
SVA
Income From Continuing Operations 0 0 0 37,911 40,475 43,164 45,986
Less: W.A.C.C. x (Total Noncurrent Assets + Working Capital) 0 0 0 5,740 6,300 6,897 7,534
SVA 0 0 0 32,171 34,175 36,266 38,453
Post-Implementation
2003 2004
###
48,951 52,063
8,212 8,933
40,739 43,130
10,914 11,310
2 2
10,912 11,309
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
ASSETS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Current Assets
Cash 0 0 0 1,652 11,481 21,658 32,194 43,108
Accounts Receivable 0 0 0 6,860 7,203 7,563 7,941 8,338
Inventory 0 0 0 5,472 5,746 6,033 6,335 6,651
Prepaid Expenses 0 0 0 875 919 965 1,013 1,064
Other Current Assets 0 0 0 4,790 5,030 5,281 5,545 5,822
Total Current Assets 0 0 0 19,649 30,378 41,500 53,028 64,983
Noncurrent Assets
Machinery and Equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Building and Plant 0 0 0 61,962 61,962 61,962 61,962 61,962
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 0 0 0 0 (4,879) (9,758) (14,637) (19,516)
Net Fixed Assets 0 0 0 61,962 57,083 52,204 47,325 42,446
Intangible Assets
Deferred Fin./ License/Startup 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Project Costs-Capitalized 5 5 5 5
Project Fees 0 1 2 2
Other Intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Less: Accumulated Amortization (0) (1) (1) (2)
Total Intangible Assets 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5
Post-Implementation
2004
54,418
8,755
6,984
1,117
###
6,113
77,387
0
61,962
(24,394)
37,568
0
3,234
0
0
###
5
###
3
0
(3)
5
40,806
118,194
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
LIABILITIES 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Current Liabilities
Interest Payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts Payable 0 0 0 7,677 8,061 8,464 8,887 9,331
Other Accrued Expenses 0 0 0 4,445 4,445 4,445 4,445 4,445
Unearned Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Notes Payable 0 0 0 4,109 4,109 4,109 4,109 4,109
Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Taxes Payable 0 0 0 2,359 2,359 2,359 2,359 2,359
Distributions Payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0 8,153 8,153 8,153 8,153 8,153
Total Current Liabilities 0 0 0 26,743 27,127 27,530 27,953 28,397
Noncurrent Liabilities
Long-Term Notes 0 0 0 10,901 10,901 10,901 10,901 10,901
Deferred Income Tax Liability 0 0 0 10,939 10,939 10,939 10,939 10,939
Deferred Taxes Payable 0 0 0 770 770 770 770 770
Total Noncurrent Liabilities 0 0 0 22,610 22,610 22,610 22,610 22,610
SHAREHOLDER’S EQUITY
Total Liabilities and Shareholder’s Equity 0 0 0 84,145 90,127 96,503 103,292 110,515
Post-Implementation
2004
###
0
9,798
4,445
0
4,109
###
0
2,359
###
###
0
8,153
28,864
10,901
10,939
770
22,610
51,474
81,293
1,736
0
668
###
(16,977)
###
66,720
118,194
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Earnings Before Interest and Tax (“EBIT”) 0 0 0 38,558 41,122 43,811 46,633 49,598
Interest Income 0 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income from Continuing Operations 0 0 0 37,911 40,475 43,164 45,986 48,951
Provision for State & Federal Tax 0 0 0 32,631 34,837 37,151 39,581 42,132
Net Income Before Dividends 0 0 0 5,280 5,638 6,013 6,406 6,819
Preferred Dividends 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40
Net Income Available to Common Shareholders 0 0 0 5,280 5,598 5,973 6,366 6,779
Post-Implementation
2004
141,937
###
141,937
76,578
65,358
46.05%
###
1
0
250
0
7,518
7,769
###
57,589
###
4,879
1
12,649
52,710
647
###
0
###
0
52,063
44,810
7,252
40
7,212
74,080
(40)
81,293
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures: 0 0 0 0
Cash Provided (Used) by Investing Activities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Financing Activities
Change in Long-Term Notes 0 0 0 0
Change in Notes Payable 0 0 0 0
Preferred Dividends (40) (40) (40) (40)
Cash Provided (Used) by Financing Activities (40) (40) (40) (40)
Net Cash Flow Available to Common Shareholders 0 0 0 0 9,829 10,177 10,536 10,914
Post-Implementation
2004
7,252
0
###
(0)
4,880
(417)
(333)
(53)
(291)
(1,094)
###
0
467
0
0
0
467
###
(154)
0
0
11,350
###
0
0
0
0
(40)
(40)
11,310
0
11,310
43,108
54,418
ANALYSIS
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
Financial and Operating Ratios 1996 1997 1998 1999 Benchmark 2000 2001 2002
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9
Quick Ratio (Cash, Equivalents and Accounts Receivable/Current Liabilities) 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4
Working Capital (Current Assets Less Current Liabilities) (7,094) 3,251 13,970 25,075
Activity Ratios
Sales/Average Receivables 32.4 16.6 16.6 16.6
Days in Average Receivables 11.3 22.0 22.0 22.0
Cost of Sales/Average Inventory 21.9 11.2 11.2 11.2
Days in Average Inventory 16.6 32.5 32.5 32.5
Cost of Sales/Average Accounts Payable 15.6 8.0 8.0 8.0
Days in Average Accounts Payable 23.4 45.6 45.6 45.6
Working Capital Turnover (Net Sales Revenue/(Average Working Capital) (15.7) 35.9 14.2 6.6
Fixed Asset Turnover (Net Sales Revenue/Average Net Fixed Assets) 3.6 2.0 2.2 2.6
Asset Turnover (Net Sales Revenue/Average Total Assets) 2.6 1.3 1.3 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Net Income/Average Shareholder’s Equity 0.30 0.15 0.14 0.13
Growth
Sales Growth 5% 5% 5%
EPS 2.17 2.32 2.48 2.64
Cost
NI/Sales (Profit Margin) 5% 5% 5% 5%
Gross Margin 46% 46% 46% 46%
SG&A as a % of Sales 7% 7% 6% 6%
Capital
Assets/Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 76% 77% 79% 80%
SVA 0 0 0 32,171 34,175 36,266 38,453
Project
ROI #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15% 14% 13% 12%
NPV $39,729
IRR Err:523
Post-Implementation
2003 2004
2.3 2.7
1.8 2.2
36,586 48,523
16.6 16.6
22.0 22.0
11.2 11.2
32.5 32.5
8.0 8.0
45.6 45.6
4.4 3.3
3.0 3.5
1.3 1.2
0.12 0.11
5% ###
5%
2.81 2.99
###
5% ###
5%
46% 46%
###
6% ###
5%
82% 83%
40,739 43,130
11% 11%