Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
matrices
Andrea Fontanari∗
Delft University of Technology and CWI Amsterdam
Iddo Eliazar
Independent Researcher
Pasquale Cirillo
Delft University of Technology
Cornelis W. Oosterlee
CWI Amsterdam and Delft University of Technology
Abstract
We propose Quantum Majorization as a way of comparing and ranking correlation matrices,
with the aim of assessing portfolio risk in a unified framework. Quantum majorization is a
partial order in the space of correlation matrices, which are evaluated through their spectra.
We discuss the connections between Quantum Majorization and an important class of risk
functionals, and we define two new risk measures able to capture interesting characteristics of
portfolio risk.
1 Introduction
Consider a portfolio P containing n assets. A common way to deal with the dependence structure
of P–and thus with portfolio risk–is to consider its n × n correlation matrix C [7]. We refer to the
correlation matrix in the most general sense, as a real, symmetric, positive semidefinite, Hermitian
matrix, whose entries are correlation coefficients according to some definition [18], all lying in the
interval [−1, 1], with all ones on the main diagonal.
The main idea of this work is to define a way of comparing and ranking empirical correlation
matrices, and of extracting the portfolio risk information they contain, for risk management pur-
poses. The comparison can be over time, if one studies the evolution of the correlation matrix for a
given portfolio, but it can also be cross-sectional, comparing different portfolios at the same time,
for example to look for the one minimizing portfolio risk. The only requirement is that the size
of the matrices is the same, i.e. only portfolios having the same number of assets are considered.
Our proposal is to use Quantum Majorization, a tool developed in the field of quantum mechanics
[1, 41, 40] to study the dynamics of the entropy of a system. To the best of our knowledge this is
the first time that such a machinery is used in finance, and applied to portfolio correlation matrices.
Quantum majorization is a partial order to rank matrices looking at their eigenvalues. In
particular, a matrix is defined riskier than another when the spectrum of the latter belongs to the
convex hull spanned by the former. This can be verified by exploiting the so called majorization
relation among positive real vectors [4].
The use of eigensystems to study multivariate dependence is not at all new: in the past decades,
it has been shown that Markowitz-based portfolio optimization strategies are often outperformed
by naive strategies such as the 1/N rule [13, 14]. The reason for that is the instability of correlation
matrix estimators, when the number of assets is large with respect to the length of the time series
∗ Corresponding Author: Andrea Fontanari, Applied Probability Group, EEMCS Faculty, Delft University of
Technology, Building 28, Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628 XE Delft, The Netherlands. Phone:+31.152.782.589.
Mail: A.Fontanari@tudelft.nl
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used for the estimation [35, 34]. To solve this, a number of different methodologies to build and
study portfolios has been introduced (a review in [9]), with many authors agreeing that eigenvalues-
based strategies should be preferred.
As said, in finance, correlation matrices are often used to study the amount of (possibly sys-
temic) risk embedded in a portfolio, when market variables move. Risk managers usually summarize
this information by the means of measures like the determinant, the Frobenius norm, the entropy,
or the average correlation. The use of a summary measure, instead of the whole correlation matrix,
is perceived as preferable for reporting and communication purposes. In this paper, we show that
the presence or absence of Quantum Majorization may be more informative than any single risk
measure. And this is particularly true in large and granular portfolios, like those prescribed by
financial regulations–think for instance about Basel III [8].
We introduce a class of risk functionals, the Mλ class, which are isotonic to Quantum Majoriza-
tion, and whose aim is to capture the (monotonic) dependence embedded into portfolio correlation
matrices. An important property of such a class, stated in Proposition 2, is that under Quantum
Majorization, i.e. when it is possible to rank correlation matrices according to the order introduced
in Definition 3, all risk functionals in Mλ are comonotonic. The implication is that, if we are able
to identify majorization, then the choice of the specific risk functional becomes secondary, as they
will all behave (and move) in the same way, indicating an increase (or a decrease) of portfolio
risk. It is indeed only when the ordering does not hold that risk functionals may give incoherent
information.
When compared to single risk measures, Quantum Majorization provides a stronger charac-
terization of risk and dependence among correlation matrices. We therefore provide a unifying
approach to the analysis of portfolio risk and correlation: we introduce several tools, discuss their
properties, and show how to use them in practice. In doing so, we will give preference to financial
interpretability and usability, avoiding the unnecessary mathematical minutiae.
The paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents the concept of Quantum Majorization
for correlation matrices; Section 3 deals with the Mλ class of isotonic risk measures, analyzing its
properties, and discussing its link with Quantum Majorization; Section 4 introduces the empirical
majorization matrix approach as a fully data-driven methodology to deal with portfolio risk; Section
5 is devoted to an application to empirical data related to the Industrial Dow Jones, in which we
show how to use the tools introduced in the previous sections; Section 6 builds a connection between
our approach and network analysis, which can open the path for future research; finally Section 7
closes the work and suggests future lines of research.
C1 Minimal Element: The least risky element among all correlation matrices should be the
identity matrix;
C2 Maximal Elements: The riskiest elements among all correlation matrices should be the set
of matrices of rank 1;
C3 Monotonocity: The order should not increase in the rank of the correlation matrices;
C4 Quasi convexity: The correlation matrix obtained as convex combination of two correlation
matrices should not be riskier than the riskiest of the original correlation matrices.
Conditions C1 and C2 fix the two extremes of the ordered set, i.e. the minimal and the maximal
elements. C1 identifies the case of no correlation (the identity matrix) as the least risky one; while
C2 finds the riskiest situation in a portfolio whose assets are all linear transformations of one
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of them (comonotonicity and countermonotonicity), therefore all correlation matrices of rank 1.
From a portfolio risk prospective, we can think of the propagation of market shocks: if assets in
our portfolio are completely uncorrelated, shocks on one of them do not propagate to any of the
others; while in a comonotonic (countermonotonic) portfolio, shocks on one single asset affect all
the others, possibly increasing the overall risk.
Notice that while the minimal element is necessarily unique (the identity), the maximal one
corresponds to a set of correlation matrices, given that in a comonotonic portfolio all assets can
represent the leading term. An interesting characterization for this type of structure is presented
in [12].
Condition C3 implies that, given two portfolios P1 and P2 , such that P1 has more monotonically
dependent assets than P2 (hence its correlation matrix a smaller rank), then the risk associated to
P1 should never be lower than that of P2 .
Finally, condition C4 describes how the order should respond to diversification. In the context
of portfolio theory, condition C4 requires that, by taking convex combinations of portfolios, not
necessarily uncorrelated, the overall risk should decrease.
Investigating the available literature, a powerful partial order, compatible with conditions C1-
C4 above, and thus useful to deal with portfolio risk, was introduced in the field of quantum
mechanics by Alberti and Uhlmann [1], and further analyzed by Ando [2]. This order, called
Quantum Majorization, was developed to study entropy-increasing dynamics on density matrices,
and it relies on the eigenvalues, also known as the spectrum, of the matrices under scrutiny, which
are required to be Hermitian and with equal trace.
Being real symmetric, a correlation matrix is a special type of Hermitian matrix, and its trace is
equal to the number of assets the matrix represents: n. In other words, the sum of the eigenvalues
of a correlation matrix–equal to its trace–is nothing but the number of elements it deals with.
Therefore, if we consider two different n × n correlation matrices, we know for sure that their
spectra will sum to the same value n. This apparently simple property of the trace justifies the
use of Quantum Majorization on correlation matrices, and not on variance-covariance ones.
It is important to stress that, in introducing their order, Alberti and Uhlmann [1] did not
consider the C1-C4 conditions stated above, which are just relevant to us in terms of portfolio risk.
A possible alternative to rank correlation matrices with conditions similar to C1-C4 was also
developed by Giovagnoli and Romanazzi [25], using a special type of G-majorization [26]. However,
despite being theoretically interesting, such an approach is difficult to use in practice, especially
in finance and risk management, given the difficulty of verifying some of the required conditions.
Conversely, Quantum Majorization–the approach we are proposing here–only requires the diago-
nalization of the correlation matrix to be safely used; and this can be easily performed in every
programming languages. Furthermore, Quantum Majorization is richer than Giovagnoli and Ro-
manazzi’s order, as it orders at least the same number of elements, and possibly more [1, 25].
Conditions C1-C4 can be easily restated in terms of the spectra of correlation matrices, a trick
that will prove essential to deal with Quantum Majorization as per Theorem 1. This "eigenrepre-
sentation" of the axiomatic conditions also bridges towards the spectral study of random matrices
[6, 43], and classical multivariate analysis à la Wilks [28], further supporting the approach we are
proposing.
For a portfolio containing n uncorrelated assets, C1 requires the spectrum of the correlation
matrix to be the n-dimensional vector of ones λ = [1, ..., 1]. A n × n identity matrix (the minimal
element according to C1) has indeed a single eigenvalue equal to 1, with an algebraic multiplicity
of n. On the opposite side, C2 requires the spectrum of the correlation matrix of a comono-
tonic/countermonotonic portfolio to be equal to λ = [n, 0, ..., 0], which is the case of a n × n matrix
of rank 1.
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defined as Pn Pn
i=1 xi i=1 xi d d
x̄ = , ..., = , ..., ,
n n n n
that is the n-dimensional vector whose entries correspond to the average of x.
and
k
X k
X
x[i] ≥ y[i] , for all k = {1, ..., n − 1}, (2)
i=1 i=1
where x[1] , ..., x[n] are the coordinates of the vector x sorted in descending order, so that x[1] ≥
w
x[2] ≥ ... ≥ x[n] . If only condition (2) holds, we speak of weak majorization, x y.
Being a partial order [4], it may not be possible to verify the majorization between x and y,
as per Definition 2. In these cases, we write x y. The fact that it is a partial order, however,
guarantees that majorization respects the transitivity property: if x y and y z, then x z.
Strictly related to majorization, and fundamental for our work, is the class of Schur-convex
or isotonic functions. These functions have indeed the property of preserving majorization when
applied.
Definition 2 (Schur-convex function). Let φ be a real-valued function defined on Rn . φ is Schur-
convex if, whenever x y, then φ(x) ≥ φ(y). When the inequality is strict, we speak of strictly
Schur-convex function.
If x y and φ(x) ≤ φ(y) we call φ Schur-concave, such that −φ is Schur-convex.
Schur-convex functions can thus be used as summary measures of the variability of a vector,
when variability is defined in terms of majorization. Interestingly, several quantities commonly
employed in statistics to represent variability are Schur-convex: the variance, the coefficient of
variation, the entropy, the arithmetic and the geometric means, the mean absolute deviation and
inequality indices like the Gini and the Pietra [27]. These common measures of variability are
therefore nothing more than functions naturally related to the concept of majorization, as we shall
also see in the multivariate framework.
Theorem 1. The partial order of Definition 3 is consistent with the requirements of minimal and
maximal element, monotonicity and convexity of conditions C1-C4.
1 From now on, to avoid excessive repetitions, we just speak of majorization for both vectors and matrices.
Naturally, when dealing with matrices we will refer to Definition 3, while for vectors we will imply Definition 1.
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Proof. The first two requirements are easily checked. Their proof follows from the definition of
Quantum Majorization as majorization of the eigenvalues of the correlation Pn matrix C, and by
noticing that all correlation matrices of size n × n have trace equal to n = i=1 λi (C).
Since every correlation matrix is positive semi-definite, we have that its eigenvalues are non-
negative, so that λ(C) ∈ Rn+ . Therefore, using a result for vector majorization (Proposition C1
page 192 in [42]), we have that
λ λ
λmax (C) λ(C) λmin (C),
where λmax (C) = [n, 0, ..., 0] and λmin (C) = [1, 1, ..., 1].
To verify C1, notice that the only diagonalizable matrix with spectrum equal to λmin (C) is the
identity matrix. For C2, observe that the only matrices with spectrum equal to λmax (C) are those
of rank 1.
To prove C3 recall that, given two correlation matrices C1 and C2 of equal size, if Rank(C1 ) ≥
Rank(C2 ) then C1 must have a smaller number of zeros in its spectrum. Therefore, by applying
PRank(C ) PRank(C )
Definition 1, we have that i=1 2 λ[i] (C2 ) > i=1 2 λ[i] (C1 ), meaning that λ(C1 ) can never
majorize λ(C2 ), thus verifying C3.
To check C4, we want to verify that, given two correlation matrices C1 and C2 of equal size,
and a scalar α ∈ [0, 1], we have
k
X k
X k
X
λ[i] (C) ≤ α λ[i] (C1 ) + (1 − α) λ[i] (C2 ),
i=1 i=1 i=1
By applying the Fan representation theorem on both sides of the inequality above the desired result
is obtained. The quasi-convexity then follows from the convexity of the order.
The following proposition, whose proof can be found in [2], underlines an important connection
between Quantum Majorization and the correlation matrices on which it is verified.
λ
Proposition 1. Take two correlation matrices C1 , C2 ∈ C. If C1 C2 , then the following
conditions are equivalent:
1. Let λ(C1 ) and λ(C2 ) be the spectrum of C1 , C2 respectively, then
The first part of the Proposition 1 relates Quantum Majorization to the theory of doubly-
stochastic matrices. In particular, it states that when portfolio P1 majorizes portfolio P2 , then the
spectrum of thePlatter can be written as a weighted average of the spectrum of the former, such
n
that λi (C2 ) = k=1 pi,k λk (C2 ), with weights given by the row elements of the matrix P. Note
however that the matrix P is not known a priori, and that it may not be unique [42].
The second part of Proposition 1 provides a hint on how the entries of the two ordered correla-
tion matrices are related, under Quantum Majorization. In quantum information theory, Equation
(4) is a so-called Kraus operation. A Kraus operator is a linear, trace-preserving map (the Ui ’s for
us) that is used to describe how a physical system decays from a pure state towards a maximum
entropy one, commonly known as the fully mixed state. In terms of portfolio risk–and thus of
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majorization–the pure state is the one in which risk is most concentrated, because of a comono-
tonic portfolio in which diversification is not possible, while the fully mixed state represents the
situation in which the portfolio (possibly granular) is highly diversified, so that portfolio risk is
minimal, as it spreads across all the components.
From a geometrical point of view, Equation (4) tells that C2 can be obtained via a sequence
of rotations of C1 . These rotations are represented by the unitary matrices Ui , and they are then
weighted by a factor αi . In financial terms, the collection of unitary matrices Ui , i ∈ {1, ..., K}
can for instance be interpreted as diversification strategies, which allow to decrease the risk of
portfolio P1 , where diversification is more difficult, given that fewer assets account for a greater
share of the total risk, to the level of portfolio P2 , in which risk is spread among more components,
hence better diversified [48, 54]. Unfortunately, such interpretation has an important limit: these
strategies, especially for large portfolios, may not be explicitly obtainable.
In fact, while powerful in theory, Equation (4) has low applicability at the moment, because
there is, at the best of our knowledge, no general and constructive representation of both the unitary
matrices and the weights, nor it is clear how to quantify K. Nevertheless, Equation (4) opens,
in our opinion, an interesting path of research: while being hard to implement for large datasets,
the elements of Equation (4) could be derived analytically under specific modeling restrictions,
such as the one introduced in [45], suggesting a way of building portfolio risk models based on
majorization, in a way similar to some approaches in quantum information theory [41].
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one measure may see increasing risks, while another may indicate a decrease. Therefore, the
consistent and inconsistent behavior of risk functionals is a way of identifying majorization (and
vice versa). Empirical investigations, as the one we offer in Section 5, suggest that financial data
commonly show majorization, especially during periods of crisis, when the phenomenon appears
to be quite strong.
The second property simply extends the behavior that Schur-convex functions exhibit for real
vectors [42], and it thus allows to build new risk measures starting from existing ones.
Finally, the last property can be used to introduce a standardization for the functions in Mλ ,
that is
φ(C) − φ(I)
φ̄(C) = . (5)
φ(J) − φ(I)
In the next subsections, we discuss some examples of matrix functions belonging to Mλ .
This function has several useful properties, for which we refer to [17, 53]. For our purposes, it
is sufficient to notice that if x, y ∈ Rn+ and Lk (x) ≥ Lk (y) for every k ∈ {1, ..., n}, then x y and
vice versa. For this reason the majorization relation between two vectors x and y is sometimes
interpreted as x being more unequal than y.
Several multivariate extensions of the Lorenz curve have been proposed in the literature to
deal with multivariate inequality, and for a review we suggest [31, 53]. Here we introduce a new
one, suitable for portfolio risk management and compatible with Quantum Majorization. For this
reason, we call it Quantum Lorenz curve.
Definition 5 (Quantum Lorenz curve). Let C be an n×n correlation matrix, its Quantum Lorenz
curve is the matrix function L : C → R, such that
Pk
maxUUT =Ik T r(UCUT ) λ[i] (C)
Lk (C) := = Pi=1
n for k = {1, ..., n}, (7)
T r(C) i=1 λi (C)
where U is a k × n unitary invariant matrix, T r is the trace operator, and λ[1] ≥ λ[2] ≥ ... ≥ λ[n]
are the ordered eigenvalues of C.
The definition can be easily extended to any n × m matrix C that admits a singular value
decomposition C = UΣV by setting the numerator in (7) equal to maxUUT =VVT =Ik T r(UΣV).
The Quantum Lorenz has an intriguing interpretation in terms of portfolio risk: for a given k,
it represents the percentage of the total portfolio variance explained by the first k eigenvalues [52].
Alternatively, in the context of dimensionality reduction, 1 − Lk (C) provides an estimate of the
percentage of information that is lost by taking a rank k approximation of the matrix C [28].
Proposition 3 (Properties of the Quantum Lorenz). A Quantum Lorenz curve L(C) has the
following properties:
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4. Perfect inequality bound : Lk (C) = 1 for every k = {1, ..., n} if and only if C is a rank 1
matrix.
Proof. Property 1 simply follows from basic properties of the trace operator: linearity and invari-
ance to cyclic permutations.
Property 2 follows from the sub-additivity of the max and the fact that, for n × n correlation
matrices C1 and C2 , T r(C1 ) = T r(C2 ).
To prove the "if part" of Property 3, just recall that, for U a k × n unitary matrix, we have
that T r(UIU) = T r(Ik ) = k. The "only if" part once again follows from the Fan representation
theorem [20], and it mimics the same reasoning used in the proof of Theorem 1.
Property 4 can be proven in a similar way, after noticing that the set of rank 1 matrices is
writable as {C ∈ C : C = ρρT , ρ ∈ {−1, 1}n }. Therefore T r(ρρT ) = n, since ρi ρi = 1 for every
ρ ∈ {−1, 1}n , and T r(U(ρρT )UT ) = n for every k × n matrix U.
The following proposition identifies a close connection between Quantum Majorization and the
Quantum Lorenz, further justifying the choice of the name.
Proposition 4 (Quantum Lorenz and Quantum Majorization). Given two correlation matrices
λ
C1 , C2 , we have that C1 C2 if and only if L(C1 ) ≥ L(C2 ), with ≥ being the standard product
order for vectors.
Proof. The proof is trivial if one notices that the spectral representation of the Quantum Lorenz
curve implies Definition 3.
On the basis of the Quantum Lorenz, we can finally introduce a class of inequality (risk)
functionals.
Definition 6 (Inequality functionals). Given a correlation matrix C and a real-valued function
ψ : Rn → R increasing in all its arguments, we define an inequality functional as
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For p = 1, we obtain the (correlation) matrix version of the Gini index [24], i.e.
n k
1 XX
D||.||1 (C) = |λ[i] − k|. (10)
n i=1
k=1
Example 3.2 (Ratio indices). If ψ = πk , where πk is the projection operator onto the k-th
coordinate, we have
Dπk (C) = Lk (C). (12)
This represents the matrix extension of the top-α% inequality index used in the social sciences
to measure the proportion of the total wealth owned by the richest α% individuals [16] in the
economy. A particular case of ratio index, called absorption ratio, has already been used as
portfolio risk measure for correlation matrices in [33, 32]. It is obtained by setting k = b0.05 × nc.
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Example 3.5 (Effective rank). By defining g(Sf ) := eSf with f (λi ) = −λi log(λi ), one obtains
another entropy-based index commonly called effective rank [46], that is
Pn
ER(C) := e−T r(f (C)) = e− i=1 λi (C) log λi (C)
.
This measure was developed as an attempt to propose a real-valued proxy for the rank of a
correlation matrix. Clearly −ER belongs to the Mλ class.
for i, j = 1, ..., T .
The matrix A is called Quantum Majorization Matrix.
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λ
By definition a Quantum Majorization Matrix keeps track of all the ordering relations in a
collection {Ct }Tt=1 . Recalling Proposition 1, A thus helps in noticing the presence of a non-trivial
dependence structure in the portfolio.
On row i in A, it is possible to keep track of the correlation matrices which are majorized
by Ci . WhilePT on column i it is possible to find the correlation matrices which majorize Ci . In
particular, j=1 Ai,j provides the total number of correlation matrices which are less risky relative
PT
to Ci , while j=1 Aj,i is the total number of correlation matrices which are more risky relative
to Ci . Finally, if Ai,j = Aj,i = 0 then no ordering relation is present between Ci and Cj . While
when Ai,j = Aj,i = 1 then Ci and Cj are similar. From now on, without any loss of generality,
we request not to haveh similari correlation matrices so that the total number of majorizations in A
lies in the interval 0, T (T2−1) .
Figure 1 gives two graphical representations of possible 8 × 8 Quantum Majorization Matrices.
To represent the different Ai,j ’s in the matrices we choose black for 1, and white for 0. Yellow is
used to indicate the trivial diagonal of each correlation matrix majorizing and being majorized by
itself.
Figure 1: Two examples of 8 × 8 Quantum Majorization Matrices. Black squares represent ones,
white squares zeros, and the yellow diagonal shows the trivial situation of a correlation matrix
majorizing itself.
Consider Figure 1a. For example, A4,1 = 1, and cell (t4 , t1 ) is black. This means that correlation
λ
matrix C4 majorizes C1 , i.e. C4 C1 : the embedded portfolio risk has thus increased at time
t = 4 with respect to time t = 1. As expected, by the antisymmetry of Quantum Majorization,
cell (t1 , t4 ) is white, meaning that A1,4 = 0.
Let us now look for instance at the white cell (t5 , t1 ), i.e. A5,1 = 0, and notice that the
λ
symmetric cell (t1 , t5 ) is black. In this case, we have C1 C5 , i.e. C5 is majorized by C1 . In this
case we deduce that the risk of the portfolio has decreased at time t = 5, when compared to time
t = 1.
Take now (t6 , t4 ): it is white, but also (t4 , t6 ) is. Therefore, between C6 and C4 there is no
λ
majorization, C6 C4 , and no comment on risk can be made in terms of Quantum Majorization.
All in all, if one of the two symmetric cells is black, majorization takes place, if both cells are
white, no majorization can be observed.
Consider now Figure 1b, and let us focus our attention on the correlation matrix C6 , represented
by row t6 . It is clear that this correlation matrix majorizes all the others, thus representing the
up-to-date maximum in the dataset in terms of portfolio risk, according to Quantum Majorization
(as time passes, the ranking could change). Matrix C4 then represents the second riskiest portfolio
(up-to-date), which majorizes all other portfolios apart from the one represented by C6 , by which
λ
it is majorized: C6 C4 .
Looking at patterns in a Quantum Majorization Matrix we can therefore identify periods of
higher and lower risk, and we can compare them. In Section 5, we provide empirical evidence of the
presence of large black areas in the Quantum Majorization Matrix plot of the Industrial Dow Jones,
in correspondence of times of financial distress. In particular, we conjecture that when a portfolio is
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granular and representative of a market, majorization can be used to look for and analyze increases
in systemic risk (with assets that tend to become comonotonic and less diversifiable), and thus the
emergence of financial crises.
It is important to stress that every risk evaluation obtained via a Quantum Majorization
Matrix–either by visual inspection or using the more quantitative approach explained later–can
only lead to a relative risk comparison among the correlation matrices in a dataset, hence the
systemic validity is limited by the representativity of the portfolio under scrutiny. More general
risk claims can only be given if additional assumptions are made: for example under weak alpha-
mixing conditions [18] of the underlying portfolio value processes, and/or when a sufficiently large
amount of correlation matrices are included in the dataset, so that historical bias is contained.
The frequent recalibration of the Quantum Majorization Matrix is another procedure we strongly
suggest, as time passes, in order to keep the validity of every given risk consideration.
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90-day overlap, we have constructed a series of 447 correlation matrices, which we compare and
study using majorization. It is worth underlying that changing the size of the moving windows and
of the overlaps does not affect our conclusions, until it is possible to play with a sufficient number
of correlation matrices (≥ 50). The combination here shown is the one providing the best results
from a graphical point of view. For each correlation matrix in the collection, we have computed
the associated eigenvalues via a standard singular value decomposition.
For each 100-day moving window, Figure 2 shows the average log-returns of the INDJ index;
superimposed we also provide the time series of the corresponding matrix Gini index (D||.||1 ),
computed on the different correlation matrices. The chosen measure seems definitely capable of
identifying some major events in the observation period, something not always possible by just
looking at the log-returns.
Figure 2: The average INDJ index (gray) in the period between January 3 2000 and February 21
2018, over rolling windows of 100 days, with a 90-day overlap. For the same windows we provide
the matrix Gini index (black) computed on the corresponding correlation matrices. Major events
in the observation period are indicated.
λ
Figure 3: Time series of four monotonic measures applied to the dataset.
The choice of the matrix Gini in Figure 2 is arbitrary, that is why in Figure 3 we also provide
other possible measures of risk in Mλ : the Frobenius norm, the effective rank, the absorption ratio
and the Pietra index. Evidently, all these measures tend to behave in a similar way, suggesting
the presence of several majorizations in the portfolio evolution, consistently with Property 1 of
Proposition 2.
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A measure of the amount of majorization in the portfolio is provided by the U (A) measure of
Equation (19): recall that the closer U (A) to one, the more often majorization occurs.
Figure 4 shows the behavior of U (A) over 30-day rolling windows. Since U (A) ≥ 0.5 most of
the times, we can conclude that our portfolio presents important levels of majorization, hence of
systemic risk (and diversification) becomes more difficult to attain. During the riskiest moments,
i.e. the period 2008-2013, the majorization index U (A) often touches the value 0.8, indicating a
very strong ordering, while in better periods, like the years 2005-2007, it decreases towards 0.2 and
less, and so systemic risk lowers down. The behaviour of the U (A) measure is in line with what
can be observed in Figure 3 where the different risk measures behave similarly quite often.
Figure 4: Time evolution of the U (A) measure over a 30-day rolling window.
Let us now have a look at Figure 5, which presents the Quantum Majorization Matrix A of the
INDJ sample. An interesting fact, consistent with the behavior of U (A), is noticeable: the corre-
lation matrices of the 2007-2009 crisis period are the up-to-date maximal elements for the dataset.
In fact, is clear from the red band in the picture, they majorize most of the other correlation
λ
matrices, with just a few exceptions of non-majorization (). Conversely, the correlation matrices
of the years 2005, 2006 or 2014 are majorized by almost all the other correlations, representing the
least risky set (and periods).
Figure 5: Quantum Majorization Matrix of the INDJ dataset. Black squares represent Quantum
Majorizations between correlation matrices, the red lines indicate major market events during the
observation period, while the red band underlines the riskiest period (in term of majorizations) in
the dataset.
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In Figure 6, we provide the behavior of the other risk measure we have discussed in Subsection
4.1, i.e. θ(Ci ), together with the average log-returns of the INDJ portfolio. For every correlation
matrix {Ct }447
t=1 the associated θ(Ct ) is computed. Looking at the graph, we can see that all periods
of crisis (see again Figure 2) are characterized by riskier correlation matrices, i.e. θ(Ct ) > 0.5,
while less turbulent periods exhibit θ(Ct ) < 0.5. Once again the maximal levels of majorization
are observed in 2007-2009 and 2011-2012, where θ almost reaches 1.
Figure 6: Time evolution of the risk measure θ(Ci ) for {Ct }Tt=1 , T = 447, with its 0.5 threshold
level. The INDJ average log-returns are also provided for readers’ convenience.
3 Plots in higher dimensions do not add much information, that is why we restrict our attention to the two-
dimensional case.
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Figure 7: Projection of the INDJ dataset on a 2D Euclidean plane, on the basis of the eigende-
composition of A. The separation into 2 (top) and 3 (bottom) clusters via the k-means algorithm
is given.
In Figure 8, the clusters of Figure 7 are superimposed to the time series of the θ(Ct ) risk
index also presented in Figure 6. In Figure 8a, the red areas indicate the majorizing correlation
matrices, that is the red dots in Figure 7. The empirical threshold for θ(Ct ), separating majorizing
and majorized matrices, is 0.54. This value is close to the theoretical one (0.5) we expect from
Equation (18). The periods of high portfolio risk are quite evident, and consistent with the recent
economic history.
In the 3-cluster case of Figure 8b, the yellow areas show those correlation matrices that cor-
respond to transitions between the majorizing/riskier (red) and the majorized/less risky (white)
situations. In the INDJ dataset, a correlation matrix belongs to the yellow cluster if its θ falls in
the interval [0.34, 0.68].
Figure 8b can thus represent a first example of an alarm system based on Quantum Majoriza-
tion. If we monitor the θ index over time, the closer (from below) the value to the 0.68 threshold,
the higher the chance of entering into a risky period of strong Quantum Majorization soon after.
The lower θ, the smaller our portfolio risk.
One could argue that the good results of Figure 8 are just an illusion based on the fact that
θ(Ct ) is an index based on Quantum Majorization. Therefore it is almost tautological that areas
of stronger majorization and higher values of θ(Ct ) coincide. In Figure 9, the same three risk areas
of Figure 8b are superimposed to the time series of the INDJ average log-returns. Visibly the INDJ
average returns exhibit a clear tendency to lose value and be more volatile in the red areas, those
associated to stronger majorization and higher portfolio risk. White areas, conversely, correspond
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(a) 2-cluster case, discriminating threshold at 0.54.
Figure 8
to a more stable behavior of the time series. Finally the yellow areas–indicating medium-risk
situations–always precede red areas, and this is a good sign, but they can be associated to both
positive and negative returns. This behavior, in our opinion, shows that majorization is able to
capture some deep features of the market that are not immediately graspable by looking at market
returns directly.
As in all alarm systems [36], false alarms represent a problem, which requires serious treatment.
For example, in Figure 8b, around year 2013, we see that θ oscillates in the yellow area. Or, in
Figure 9, we see that yellow areas may precede both white and red areas–but there is no red
area without a yellow area preceding it. Therefore a naive alarm just looking at an increase in
majorization, as indicated by the presence of a yellow area, could generate several false alarms.
A reliable alarm system should clealry take care of this. For example, one could study whether
the time length of a given risk area has an effect on the quality of the prediction, or whether
specific patterns are more meaningful than others. However, the development of a similar system
goes beyond the scope of the present paper, and we leave it to future research. An interesting
possibility could for instance be to build an urn-based alarm system, similar to the one introduced
in [11].
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0.003
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Figure 9: Comparison of the risk areas identified by the k-means clustering with three centroids
and the INDJ average log-returns.
Figure 10: Examples of graphs associated to the Quantum Majorization Matrices of Figure 1.
Thick lines represent the direction of the edges between the nodes, and can be read as arrows.
Figure 10 shows an example of graphs associated to the two Quantum Majorization Matrices
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presented in Figure 1.
A Majorization Graph can be thought of as a special case of directed inhomogeneous graph,
in which the connection probability is different for each vertex, and it depends on the size of the
convex hull spanned by the spectrum of the correlation matrix associated to that vertex.
Thanks to the graph representation of majorization, one can immediately observe some inter-
esting connections with what we have developed in this paper. For example, the risk measure
θ(Ci ) corresponds to the difference between the out-degree and the in-degree centralities of the
vertex associated to Ci , while measure U (A) is nothing but the density of the graph.
A Majorization Graph could also be used to build and calibrate a stochastic model to predict
the dynamics of a correlation matrix, for instance by exploiting the approach of [29].
Another active field of research in networks theory is the detection of communities [49]. In a
Majorization Graph, communities can be understood as nodes corresponding to correlation ma-
trices with a similar behaviour. Their individuation could therefore lead to results compatible
with those discussed in Section 5, also extending them towards the development of a taxonomy of
communities for crisis detection.
7 Conclusions
This paper presents Quantum Majorization, a partial order on the space of correlation matrices,
which we propose as a novel comprehensive way of dealing with portfolio risk. The correlation
matrices under scrutiny can be defined in different ways e.g., the standard Pearson’s correlation,
Kendall’s τ , Spearman’s ρ or Gini correlation [30, 47]. The key ingredients of the Quantum
Majorization approach are the spectra of these correlation matrices, which we study in terms of
vector majorization [4].
An important characteristic of the Quantum Majorization partial order is the fact that several
risk measures commonly used in the business practice are isotonic to it. In other words, if Quantum
Majorization manifests itself in a portfolio, the choice of this or that particular risk measure
becomes secondary, just a matter of taste, because all the isotonic risk measures will share the same
consistent message. The presence of the ordering thus becomes the relevant piece of information
one looks for, to identify and analyze portfolio risk. Accordingly, in the paper, we discuss how
Quantum Majorization can be empirically tested in market data.
While different partial orders are available in the literature, the choice of Quantum Majorization
is mainly due to the fact that 1) it can be easily verified in data, 2) it satisfies the axiomatic
approach commonly used in financial and actuarial mathematics. In particular, one can show that
Quantum Majorization allows for the existence of a minimal and a maximal element, and that it
is monotone and quasi-convex (hence not strictly coherent).
In financial terms, we show that Quantum Majorization measures the overall risk of a portfolio,
and whether it can be diversified. In fact, when majorization increases over time, it means that
a smaller and smaller number of assets is responsible for the overall risk of the portfolio, which
thus appears concentrated and badly diversified. The limit situation is the one in which one asset
accounts for all the risk, because all the others are comonotonic to it. Conversely, a decreasing
majorization indicates the situation where diversification improves, as portfolio risk is correctly
spread among all the components of the portfolio. When a portoflio majorizes the other, we say
that the first is riskier.
Linked to Quantum Majorization, we study old and new risk measures, focusing our attention
on the so-called Mλ class, containing all those risk functionals that are isotonic with respect to
Quantum Majorization. In other terms, every risk measure belonging to Mλ will provide the same
type of signal (increase/decrease of risk), every time Quantum Majorization takes place and varies
in strength.
In the final part of the paper, we discuss an application on actual data. In particular, we use
a dataset containing daily observations, over a 20-year period, of the components of the Industrial
Dow Jones. We test for the presence of Quantum Majorization and we verify the performances
of some risk measures in the Mλ class. We thus discover that markets tend to exhibit Quantum
Majorization in proximity and during times of financial distress. These empirical findings suggest
the possibility of building an alarm system based on Quantum Majorization. Our proposal is to use
some new risk measures we propose in the paper, and to cluster their values in areas of risk, using
a simple k-means approach. The performances are encouraging, even if further work is necessary,
especially in designing an optimal system, able to minimize false alarms.
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In terms of future work, it would be interesting to combine Quantum Majorization with some
other approaches commonly used in risk management, like for example the Value-at-Risk (VaR)
and the Expected Shortfall (ES) prescribed by the Basel Framework [8], when dealing with market
risk [38]. While VaR and ES do not belong to the Mλ class in general, they could be isotonic to
Quantum Majorization under further restrictions, which need to be studied. Given its ability to
unveil some hidden strucure of portfolio risk, a combination of majorization and more standard
approaches is therefore surely meaningful.
Another possible research direction is to exploit the connection between Quantum Majoriza-
tion and graphs, which we have sketched in Section 6. The possibility of reading the Quantum
Majorization Matrix as an adjacency matrix opens indeed several possibilities to develop new risk
measures, alternative graphical tools and predictive models [10]. Given its connection to graphs,
Quantum Majorization seems to us a natural tool to study the overcrowding phenomena of risk
factors in risk factor investing [3].
Acknowledgments We kindly acknowledge the generous support of the EU H2020 Marie Sklodowska-
Curie Grant No 643045.
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