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DRIVING THE

LOW CARBON
ECONOMY
PAPER 1: Renewing Our Ambitions
DRIVING THE
LOW CARBON
ECONOMY

Introduction
Across the world, policy makers are wrestling with three major
challenges: reviving economic growth, reducing carbon emissions
“Climate change and securing energy supplies. Increasingly, renewable energy is being
recognised as a key part of the answer to not just one or two of these
and energy security questions, but to all of them.
are two of the
For these reasons, European, UK and Scottish governments have set
key challenges stretching targets for the percentage of energy met by renewable sources by
facing humankind. 2020. These have in turn driven the development of a legislative, regulatory
Renewable energies and fiscal framework to encourage investment in all forms of renewables.

are the key for With the strongest wind, wave and tidal resources in Europe, Scotland has
led the way, with the current Holyrood administration setting ambitious
the solution of targets for 50 per cent of electricity consumption and 20 per cent of all
both problems as primary energy use to be met by renewables by 2020.
they are carbon These objectives were dismissed as unachievable and unworkable at the
free, abundant and time, but the growth of onshore wind looks set to power us to the interim
sustainable.” objective of 31 per cent of electricity consumption by 2011, and to meet the
lion’s share of progress towards our 2020 target.
Prof. Peter Höpper
In addition, over the last three years Scotland’s renewable energy sector has
Head of GeoRisks Research
Corporate Climate Change Centre declared a new scale of ambition, with announcements of:

• Agreements for 10.6GW of offshore wind development

• Commitments to 1.2GW of wave and tidal power in the Pentland


Firth and Orkney Waters

• 1200MW of additional potential hydro capacity

• Proposals for more than 500MW of biomass heat and power

Together, even a small proportion of these plans would add significant


capacity to Scotland’s generation mix, changing the scale of development
that Scotland can achieve over the next decade.

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DRIVING THE
LOW CARBON
ECONOMY

Defining the
Potential
To assess the potential impact of these plans on the balance of supply and demand, Scottish Renewables
commissioned the modelling of four scenarios for electricity supply and demand in 2020, looking at the impact of
different patterns of development and use.

The results are set out below: (all figures and tables from Renewable Energy Scenarios for Scotland in 2020, Garrad
Hassan (2010)).

25000 25000 80000


Tidal
Tidal Tidal
70000

Wave
60000

20000 Wave
20000 Wave

Energy (GWh)
Energy from Waste
50000

40000 Biomass
Capacity (MW)

Capacity (MW)

Energy from Waste Energy from Waste


15000 15000 30000
Wind Offshore

20000
Biomass Biomass
Wind Onshore
10000

10000 10000 Hydro


0
Wind Offshore 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Wind Offshore
Pumped storage

Nuclear
5000 Wind Onshore
5000 Wind Onshore

Other Thermal

Hydro Hydro
Thermal
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pumped storage Pumped storage


Figure 1. Electricity Generation Capacity in Figure 2. Electricity Generation Capacity in
Scotland 2009-2020 – Low Renewables Case Scotland 2009-2020 – High Renewables Case
Nuclear Nuclear

In both scenarios there is a clear increase in installed generation capacity from current level of around 12GW to more
Other Thermal Other Thermal
than 20GW.

These models give the following scenarios for generation:


Thermal Thermal

80000 100000 80000


Tidal Tidal
Tidal
70000
70000 Wave
60000
Wave
80000 Wave
Energy (GWh)

Energy from Waste


60000 50000
Energy (GWh)

Energy (GWh)

40000 Biomass
Energy from Waste Energy from Waste
50000
60000 30000
Wind Offshore

20000
40000 Biomass Biomass
Wind Onshore
10000
40000 Hydro
30000
Wind Offshore 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Wind Offshore
Pumped storage
20000
Wind Onshore
20000 Wind
Nuclear Onshore

10000
Other Thermal

Hydro Hydro
0 0 Thermal
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pumped storage Pumped storage


Figure 3. Electricity Production in Scotland Figure 4. Electricity Production in Scotland
2009-2020 – Low Renewables Case 2009-2020 – High Renewables Case
Nuclear Nuclear

As would be expected, both scenarios show significant increase in output.


Other Thermal Other Thermal

3 PAPER 1: Renewing Our Ambitions Thermal Thermal


DRIVING THE
LOW CARBON
ECONOMY

The Balance
of Power
By combining the two scenarios for generation with the two scenarios for
demand, four scenarios are developed for 2020.

Demand Growth Demand Reduction

Case Low Renewables ▼ High Renewables ▲ Low Renewables ▼ High Renewables ▲

Total generation capacity 20,830 MW 23,248 MW 20,830 MW 23,620 MW


Fossil, nuclear and pumped storage
8,609 MW (41%) 8,109 MW (34%) 8,609 MW (41%) 8,109 MW (34%)
capacity
Renewables generation capacity 12,221 MW (59%) 15,511 MW (66%) 12,221 MW (59%) 15,511 MW (66%)

Total electricity production 74,910 GWh 82,203 GWh 74,910 GWh 83,203 GWh
Fossil, nuclear and pumped storage
39,368 GWh (53%) 36,784 GWh (44%) 39,368 GWh (53%) 36,784 GWh (44%)
production
Renewables production 35,542 GWh (47 %) 46,419 GWh (56%) 35,542 GWh (47 %) 46,419 GWh (56%)

Gross consumption 43,815 GWh 43,815 GWh 37,876 GWh 37,876 GWh

Net export 31,095 GWh 39,388 GWh 37,034 GWh 45,327 GWh

Net export (% of total production) 42% 47% 49% 54%


Renewables production as % of gross
81% 106% 94% 123%
consumption (2020 target: 50%)
Emissions reductions in 2020
11.7 15.3 11.7 15.3
[million tonnes CO2]
Average emissions reductions 2010 - 2020
9.7 11.0 9.7 11.0
[million tonnes CO2 per year]

Table 1. Scenarios for Supply and These show clearly that Scotland can go much further in releasing our
Demand in Scotland 2020
potential, with even the most pessimistic scenario of low renewables
growth and increasing demand for electricity, Scotland can meet and
go beyond the 50 per cent target.

In the most positive scenario, renewables could produce the equivalent of


123 per cent of annual demand. Not only do these results take us up to and
beyond our existing electricity targets, they move us to close to or beyond
30 per cent of total energy use in Scotland from renewable sources.

Under each generation scenario, Scotland will contribute more than 50 per
cent of the total capacity necessary for the UK to meet its 2020 target of
15 per cent renewables by 2020. Strengthened grid connections between
regions and nations will carry de-carbonised electricity to the rest of the
UK when renewables output is high, and secure peak supplies to Scotland
when output is low – and move us closer to greater inter-connectivity with
the rest of Europe.

The growth in renewables delivers an annual reduction of between 11.7


million and 15.3 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.

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DRIVING THE
LOW CARBON
ECONOMY

Realising the Ambition


However, none of this can be taken for granted. To achieve this scale of
ambition in the timescales set out will require investment on a massive
“it is now time scale and concerted support from all levels of government. The priorities
for a new level must be:

of ambition for • effective and efficient consenting regimes that balance the need
the proportion of for renewable energy development with other interests

electricity demand • delivery of new grid connections and upgrades to carry power
from where it is generated to where it is consumed
met from renewable
sources.” • introduction of a modern grid charging framework that recognises
our increasing inter-dependence and the need to incentivise
generation where our strongest renewable resources are located

• investment in infrastructure necessary to support the


development of a supply chain capable of large scale deployment
of offshore wind and wave and tidal energy

• certainty for investors through the maintenance of stable market


support mechanisms

conclusion
Scotland’s renewable energy industry has grown massively over the last
few years, putting us well on track to meet our 2020 targets. This paper
shows that Scotland could go well beyond our current electricity target
of 50 per cent, and that it is now time for a new level of ambition for the
proportion of electricity demand met from renewable sources.

To secure this requires confidence, certainty and leadership, all of which


would be strongly reinforced and supported by the extension of existing
targets, and can only be achieved with the right legislative, regulatory and
financial environment for the development of all forms of renewables.

To achieve it would mean massive environmental, economic and social


gains for our country.

Over the coming months Scottish Renewables will be publishing a series of


technology-specific papers on the barriers to be overcome in meeting our
new ambition, and renewed aspirations for renewable heat and transport.

We look forward to working with you on our journey to power Scotland’s


progress to a low carbon economy.

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