Renewable Energy 36 (2011) 1869e1874

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Renewable Energy
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Techincal Note

Potential and viability of grid-connected solar PV system in Bangladesh

Md. Alam Hossain Mondal a, *, A.K.M. Sadrul Islam b
a
Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Walter Flex Str. 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany
b
Department of Mechanical & Chemical Engineering, Islamic University of Technology, Gazipur, Bangladesh

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The potential of grid-connected solar PV system in Bangladesh was estimated utilizing GeoSpatial toolkit,
Received 18 February 2010 NASA SSE solar radiation data and HOMER optimization software. Financial viability of solar photovoltaic
Accepted 26 November 2010 as an electricity generation source for Bangladesh was also assessed utilizing a proposed 1-MW grid-
Available online 31 December 2010
connected solar PV system using RETScreen simulation software for 14 widespread locations in
Bangladesh. The technical potential of gird-connected solar PV in Bangladesh was calculated as about
Keywords:
50174 MW. The annual electricity generation of the proposed system varied depending on the location
Solar PV
between 1653 MWh and 1854 MWh, with a mean value of 1729 MWh. Several different economic and
Grid electricity
Feasibility
financial indicators were calculated, such as the internal rate of return, net present value, benefit-cost
Bangladesh ratio, cost of energy production and simple payback. All indicators e for all sites e showed favorable
condition for development of the proposed solar PV system in Bangladesh. The results also showed that
a minimum of 1423 tons of greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided annually utilizing the proposed
system at any part of the country.
Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction is connected and synchronized to the grid using an appropriate

The energy from sunlight reaching the earth is a huge potential
that can be exploited and used for generating electricity. Among
several available technologies, solar photovoltaic (PV) is the most
promising. PV technology converts sunlight into direct current (DC)
electricity. When light falls on the active surface of the solar cell,
electrons become energized and a potential difference is estab-
lished, which drives a current through an external load. The central
issue with PV technology is cost. The unit cost of PV has sunk in
several orders of magnitude while the efficiency is continuously
being improved [1e6]. Solar PV is becoming more and more
popular owing to high modularity, no requirement for additional
resource (e.g., water and fuel), no moving parts and low mainte-
nance required. Over the last two decades, the cost of
manufacturing and installing solar PV system has decreased by
about 20% for every doubling of installed capacity [1]. In 2010,
Brussels-based organization expects global cumulative installed PV
capacity to grow by at least 40%, while the annual growth is
expected to increase by more than 15% [7].
Different types of grid-interactive systems are being tested in
countries where extensive utility grid lines are available. A PV array
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ49 (0)17623891608.
E-mail addresses: alam-hossain@uni-bonn.de, alam_90119@yahoo.com
(Md. Alam Hossain Mondal).
power conditioning sub-system that converts the DC energy to
alternating current (AC) energy synchronized to the grid energy [8].
Therefore, no additional energy storage is necessary. The grid itself
is the storage medium for such a grid-interactive system, which
delivers energy to the grid as long as enough sunshine is available.
The system is usually integrated directly into structural elements of
buildings (roof, façade). Therefore, the system has the following
advantages [9]:
1) It reduces both energy and capacity losses in the utility distri-
bution network, as the electric generators are located at or near
the site of the electrical load.
2) It avoids or delays upgrades to the transmission and distribu-
tion (T&D) network where the average daily output of the PV
system corresponds with the utility’s peak demand period
(afternoon peak demand during summer as a result of loads
from cooling).
3) It is cost competitive, since the savings for building material is
considered, i.e., no roof tiles are needed when solar panels are
installed.
In recent years, rapid development in grid-connected building-
integrated PV systems is due to the government-initiated renew-
able energy programs aiming at the development of renewable
energy applications and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
Germany introduced a “1 00 000 roofs program” [10]. The Japanese

0960-1481/$ e see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2010.11.033
1870 Md. Alam Hossain Mondal, A.K.M. Sadrul Islam / Renewable Energy 36 (2011) 1869e1874

70 000 roofs program started in 1994 and dominated the market

for the rest of the 1990’s [1]. A PV system dissemination program
has been very successful in USA, and its 1 million solar-roof
initiative is going well [9] [11]. Grid-connected PV systems thus
took off in the mid-to-late 1990’s and since then have been the
dominant application [1].
Bangladesh has been facing a severe power crisis for a decade.
Power generation in the country is almost entirely dependent on
natural gas, which accounts for 81.4% of the electricity generation of
the total installed capacity 5248 MW [12]. At the current rate of
increase in consumption (10% annually), the national proven
reserve of natural gas may not last more than 15e20 years [13].
Only limited amount of coal resource is available to generate
electricity, although it has adverse environmental impact. On the
other hand, the government of Bangladesh has declared that it aims
to provide electricity for all by the year 2020, although at present
there is a high unsatisfied demand for energy, which is growing by
more than 8% annually [14,15]. The Rural Electrification Board (REB)
in its master plan of 2000 noted that it had supplied electricity
services to about 31% of the total rural population. It aims to reach
97 million rural populations by 2020, which is about 84% of the
total rural population [16]. In order to address this target only fossil
fuel based power plant would not be able to satisfy the demand. It
needs to look for the alternative sources of energy for power
generation. Renewable energy technologies would be one of the
important emerging options.
Bangladesh is situated between 20.30 and 26.38 north latitude Fig. 1. Solar radiation (kWh/m2/day) and area of Bangladesh with highest potential for
and 88.04 and 92.44 east longitude with an area of 147500 km2, solar energy utilization.
which is an ideal location for solar energy utilization. Daily solar
radiation varies between 4 and 6.5 kWh/m2. Solar PV technology is an
important emerging option for electricity generation. So, densely 2. Solar energy resource potential
populated tropical country like Bangladesh could be electrified by PV
grid system using the inexhaustible and pollution free solar energy Estimation of the technical potential of solar energy in
without using any novel technologies. Compensation of electricity Bangladesh is done using a GIS-based GeoSpatial Toolkit (GsT) and
shortage and reduction CO2 emission would be done by introducing NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data. GsT is one of
solar energy sources for electricity generation in mass scale. the tools of the solar and wind energy resources assessment
Bangladesh is known to have a good potential for solar energy, application developed by the United Nations Environmental
but so far no systematic study has been done to quantify this Program (UNEP) project funded by the Global Environmental
potential for power generation. Facility (GEF). First, the theoretical potential of the solar resource is
In this paper, the technical potential of solar energy for electrical estimated based on the availability of data on solar irradiation and
power generation in Bangladesh is estimated. This paper explores the land area. This potential is then converted into technical potential by
economic feasibility of grid-connected solar PV for Bangladesh introducing social and technical constraints. Social constraints
employing a proposed 1-MW solar PV system utilizing the RETScreen mainly concern the identification of suitable locations for installa-
simulation software. It also searches the potential of greenhouse gas tion of solar energy technology. Technical constraints concern the
(GHG) emissions reduction. characterization of exploitation technologies and the organizational

Fig. 2. Monthly average sunshine hours in Bangladesh.

 Md. Alam Hossain Mondal, A.K.M. Sadrul Islam / Renewable Energy 36 (2011) 1869e1874 1871

Fig. 3. Monthly average solar radiation in Bangladesh.

setting conditions that have to be satisfied in the implementation of 10%, an area of 3e10 km2 is required to establish an average elec-
solar energy technology projects. tricity output of 100 MW, which is about 10% of a large coal or
nuclear power plant [5]. Unlike other energy conversion technol-
2.1. Theoretical potential ogies, solar energy technologies cause neither noise, nor pollution;
hence they are often installed near consumers to reduce
GeoSpatial toolkit was used to get the solar radiation map of construction costs. Thus, identification of suitable locations for
Bangladesh and from this map it was found that solar radiation is in application of solar energy is practically the search for suitable
the range of 4 to 5 kWh/m2/day on about 94% area of Bangladesh rooftops and unused land. A study suggested that 6.8%
(Fig. 1). The average sunny hours per day and monthly solar radi- (10 000 km2) of Bangladesh’s total land is necessary for power
ation were found, based on an average solar radiation data taken generation from solar PV to meet electricity demand of 3000 kWh/
from NASA for 14 widespread locations in Bangladesh using Hybrid capita/year [18]. Another study found that total household roofs
System Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) area is about 4670 km2 [14] which is about 3.2% of total land area of
model. The average sunny hours per day is 6.5 (Fig. 2), and the the country. In urban area (Dhaka city), 7.86% of total land is suit-
annual mean solar radiation is 0.2 kW/m2 (Fig. 3). This indicates able for solar PV electricity generation [19]. Considering the grid
that Bangladesh theoretically receives approximately 70 PWh of availability, only 1.7% of the land in Bangladesh is assumed tech-
solar energy every year, i.e., more than 3000 times higher than the nically suitable for generating electricity from solar PV [17,20]. The
current electricity generation in the country. However, in the capacity of grid-connected solar PV is derived using the annual
course of exploitation, constraints such as land use, geographical mean value of solar radiation (200 W/m2) and a 10% efficiency of
area and climate are encountered. In addition, several of solar the solar PV system. Thus, the technical potential of grid-connected
energy technologies are limited by different factors. For detailed solar PV in Bangladesh is calculated as about 50174 MW.
information, it is therefore necessary to examine the potential of Whereas the potential market for grid-connected PV systems is
solar energy from the viewpoint of a specific application [17]. in the densely populated urban and electrified areas, the potential
market for solar home systems (SHSs) is households without access
2.2. Technical potential to the national grid network, especially those in remote and
mountainous areas. According to a survey report, a market of SHSs
The average annual power density of solar radiation is typically of approximately 0.5 million households reaching 4 million in the
in the range of 100e300 W/m2. Thus, with a solar PV efficiency of future is envisioned in Bangladesh [21]. Considering an average
standard 50-Wp solar panel for each household, the technical total
Table 1 capacity will be equivalent to 200 MW. The same capacity is
Average daily solar radiation at 14 sites in Bangladesh [24,25]. applicable for the hybrid system, as this system is suitable only for
Station name Elevation Latitude Longitude Radiation Radiation
rural non-electrified remote areas.
(m) (degrees) (degrees) (RERC)a (NASA)
(kWh/m /day) (kWh/m2/day)
2
Table 2
Dhaka 50 23.7 90.4 4.73 4.65 Technical specifications of solar panel.
Rajshahi 56 24.4 88.6 5.00 4.87
Item Specification
Sylhet 225 24.9 91.9 4.54 4.57
Khulna 11 22.8 89.6 e 4.55 Manufacturer BP solar
Rangpur 230 25.7 89.3 e 4.86 PV module type Mono-si
Cox’s Bazar 76 21.4 92 e 4.77 Module number BP 4175
Dinajpur 194 25.6 88.6 e 4.99 Efficiency 13.9 percent
Kaptai 345 22.5 92.2 e 4.71 Rated power (Pmax) 175 W
Chitagong 118 22.3 91.8 e 4.55 Voltage at Pmax 35.4 V
Bogra 59 24.8 89.4 4.85 4.74 Current at Pmax 4.9 A
Barisal 31 22.7 90.4 4.71 4.51 Short circuit current 5.5 A
Jessore 23 23.2 89.2 4.85 4.67 Open circuit current 44.5
Mymensingh 114 24.8 90.4 e 4.64 Frame area 1.26 m2
Sherpur 308 25 90 e 4.67 Dimension (mm) 1593  790  50
Weight 15.4 kg
a
Data from RERC, Dhaka University.
1872 Md. Alam Hossain Mondal, A.K.M. Sadrul Islam / Renewable Energy 36 (2011) 1869e1874

Table 3 The economic feasibility of solar PV as an electricity generation

Costs and other assumptions. source for Bangladesh employing a proposed 1 MW grid-connected
Parameter Unit Value system was examined using the RETScreen software.
Cost of solar cell [26] BDTa/Wp 274
Lifetime of solar cell Years 25
Cost of inverter [27] BDT/kWp 15000 3.2. Proposed 1-MW solar PV system
Replacement cost BDT/kWp 10000
of inverter
The proposed solar PV grid-connected system with 1-MW capacity
Lifetime of inverter Years 10
Feasibility study, Percent of 0.6 consists of 5714 fixed panels (Table 2) with a total area of 7194 m2. The
development and total initial cost system cost of solar panel is 274 Taka/Wp (1 USD ¼ 70 Bangladeshi
engineering cost [28] Taka, BDT) [26]. The panels are inclined at an angle equal to the site
Installation and spare parts Percent of 8.6
latitude and are south facing. The azimuth angle was taken as zero for
total initial cost
Miscellaneous Percent of 3
all the studied locations. Direct current into alternating current (DC/
total initial cost AC) inverters was utilized in the proposed system with a total capacity
Annual operation & BDT 1188000 of 900 kW for converting DC into AC to feed the grid with an efficiency
maintenance of 95%. The cost of inverter is 15 000 Taka/kWp. [27] The economic
Inflation rate [29] Percent 5
feasibility analysis was performed using data on initial costs associ-
Discount rate [30] Percent 10
Energy cost increase rate Percent 5 ated with the implementation of the proposed system, and interest
Analysis period Years 25 rates. These initial costs include costs for preparing a feasibility study,
a
Bangladeshi Taka (1 USD ¼ 70 Taka).
performing the project development functions, completing the
necessary engineering, purchasing and installing the energy equip-
ment, and miscellaneous costs (Table 3) [26e30].
3. Economic viability of grid-connected solar PV system
3.3. Results
The economic viability is calculated based on total investment
cost, and fixed operation and maintenance costs, life cycle of panels
The site conditions i.e., site latitude, monthly solar radiation on
and inverters, purchasing price offered by the government, as well as
horizontal surface, and monthly mean temperature in addition to
increasing energy costs. The costs and benefits of a grid-connected
the solar PV system’s specifications and parameters form an input
solar PV system throughout its lifetime are then analyzed and
to the RETScreen simulation software to perform an economic
assessed using the RETScreen computer simulation software [22]. It
feasibility analysis and calculate energy produced by the system
is worth to mention here that the economic viability of SHS and solar
and GHG emissions, avoided when using the system for electricity
hybrid systems were analyzed in [23] and [16], respectively.
generation instead of plants, operating on the fossil fuels.

3.1. Global solar radiation 3.3.1. Electricity generation

The annual electricity generation, which is the amount of
Due to the limited solar radiation data in Bangladesh, a NASA SSE equivalent DC electrical energy actually delivered by the proposed
data set for the period from July 1983 to June 1993 was used and 1 MW solar grid-connected system to the utility, was calculated for
compared to data from the Renewable Energy Research Center all 14 locations (Fig. 4). The highest electricity production was
(RERC), Dhaka University, for 6 different stations in Bangladesh. The obtained from Dinajpur PV system about 1844 MWh/year. The
data vary from 0.66% to a maximum 4.52% from the NASA SSE data lowest production was obtained from Barisal with an annual elec-
set at the same locations (Table 1) [24,25]. 10-year NASA global solar tricity production of 1653 MWh. For Bangladesh, an average about
radiation data from 14 widespread Bangladesh locations (Table 1) 1728 MWh/year of electricity can be generated by means of the
were used for economic analysis of grid-connected solar PV system. proposed plant at any part of the country.
Electricity Generation (MWh/year)

1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
Jessore
Kaptai

Bogra
Dinajpur
Rajshahi

Khulna

Cox’s Bazar

Barisal

Sherpur
Dhaka

Rangpur

Chitagong
Sylhet

Mymensingh

Location
Fig. 4. Annual electricity production by the proposed 1-MW solar PV system.
 Md. Alam Hossain Mondal, A.K.M. Sadrul Islam / Renewable Energy 36 (2011) 1869e1874 1873

calculated by finding the discount rate that causes the net present
a
value of the project to be equal to zero. If the IRR is equal to or
11.5
greater than the required rate of return, then the development of
11
the solar project will likely be considered financially acceptable.
IRR (%)

10.5 The maximum IRR of 11.4% was observed in Dinajpur, while the
10 minimum IRR of 10.2% was observed for Barisal and Khulna. On an
9.5
average, an IRR of 10.62% can be obtained from any location in
Bangladesh (Fig. 5a).
9
Net present Value (NPV) is the value of all future cash flows,
b discounted at the discount rate. With this method, the present
50 value of all cash inflows is compared to the present value of all cash
NPV (Million BDT)

40 outflows associated with an investment project. Positive NPV

30
represents an indicator of a potentially feasible project.
The highest NPV value was about 46.43 million BDT for Dinajpur
20
and the lowest was about 5.03 million BDT for Barisal (Fig. 5b).
10 Cost of energy (COE) production is the avoided cost of energy that
0 brings the NPV to zero. The energy production cost per kWh, is thus
c obtained which was performed by RETScreen assuming that all
20 financial parameters other than the avoided cost of energy are kept
constant (Fig. 5c).
18
Cost of Energy

The COE varied between minimum of 13.25 BDT/kWh at

(BDT/kWh)

16 Dinajpur and a maximum of 17.78 BDT/kWh at Barisal. In

14 Bangladesh, on an average cost of energy per kWh equal to
12 14.36 BDT can be obtained at any location.
10
Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio is the ratio of the net benefits to costs of
the proposed project. Net benefits represent the value of annual
d revenues less annual costs, while the cost defines the project
1.15 equity. The B-C ratio for all locations was calculated (Fig. 5d) and it
1.12 was found that on an average, a B-C of about 1.07 can be obtained
B-C Ratio

1.09 from any location of Bangladesh:

Simple payback (SP) represents the number of years it takes for
1.06
the cash flow to equal the total investment. The basic assumption of
1.03
the SP method is that the more quickly the cost of an investment
1 can be recovered, the more desirable is the investment.
e The SP for all selected locations varied between 12.3 and 13.8
14 years (Fig. 5e). On an average of SP of 13.2 years can be achieved at
Simple Payback (year)

13.5 any location of the country.

13
12.5
3.3.3. GHG emission
12
11.5
Greenhouse gases are most relevant to energy projects’ analysis
are CO2, CH4 and N2O; these gases are considered in GHG emission
reduction analysis using RETScreen software.
Calculation of the annual reduction in GHG emissions-estimated
to occur if the proposed 1-MW solar PV system is implemented e
Location
was performed. The calculation is based on emission factors of both
Fig. 5. Economic indicators for 1-MW solar PV system for 14 locations, Bangladesh. the proposed system and grid-connected power generation plants
operating on the conventional fuels (Natural gas 81.4%, diesel & fuel
oil 9.8% and coal 4.8%, remaining from hydro) in Bangladesh. The
3.3.2. Economic feasibility indicators highest GHG emissions mitigation of 1588 tons/year was observed
The costs and benefits of the proposed solar PV system at Dinajpur and the lowest reduction was observed at Barisal with
throughout its lifetime are analyzed and assessed by RETScreen a value of 1423 tons/year.
using the following financial indicators:
Internal rate of return (IRR) represents the true interest yield 3.3.4. Sensitivity analysis
provided by the project equity over its life. It is referred to as the To explore the possible variations in the results due to variations
return on investment or the time-adjusted rate of return and is in some key parameters, the sensitivity analysis was performed for

Table 4
Sensitivity analysis results of NPVs for Dinajpur.

Initial costs Electricity export rate (BDT/MWh)

BDT % Change 12000 20% 13500 10% 15000 0% 16500 10% 18000 20%
261257382 20% 31878289 71814276 111750263 151686250 191622237
293914555 10% 778883 39157104 79093091 119029077 158965064
326571728 0% 33436056 6499931 46435918 86371905 126307892
359228901 10% 66093229 26157242 13778745 53714732 93650719
391886073 20% 98750402 58814415 18878428 21057559 60993546
1874 Md. Alam Hossain Mondal, A.K.M. Sadrul Islam / Renewable Energy 36 (2011) 1869e1874
Table 5
Sensitivity analysis results of NPVs for Barisal.
Initial costs Electricity export rate (BDT/MWh)
BDT % Change 12000
20%
261257382 20% 1241103
293914555 10% 33898275
326571728 0% 66555448
359228901 10% 99212621
391886073 20% 131869794
important parameters such as discount rate, initial investment cost,
project lifetime and electricity export cost.
Discount rate is important not only in this study but also in
every economic activity with a dynamic aspect. So, variations in the
analysis results of 8% and 12% were observed. Cost of energy
production varied between 11 BDT/kWh and 12.3 BDT/kWh with
a discount rate of 8% and the cost varied between 15.71 BDT/kWh
and 17.53 BDT/kWh with a discount rate of 12%. If the project
lifetime is considered 15 years, the energy production cost varied
between 17.72 BDT/kWh and 19.77 BDT/kWh and the cost
decreases with the increase of lifetime. The sensitivity analysis
results on NPV varied significantly with the variation of initial cost
and electricity export rate. In almost all variations of electricity
export rate and few variation of initial cost, the NPVs were found
positive at the best solar location at Dinajpur (Table 4). At Barisal,
where the energy production cost found relatively high, most of the
NPVs were found not positive when the electricity export cost
decreased (Table 5).
4. Conclusions
This study examines the technical potential of solar PV elec-
tricity generation and feasibility of solar PV grid-connected system
for 1-MW generation plant in Bangladesh. It is estimated that about
50174 MW can be generated from solar PV. The study found that
annual electricity generation of the proposed solar PV system,
which varies between a minimum of 1653 MWh/year at Barisal and
a maximum of 1844 MWh/year at Dinajpur. It was found that the
per unit electricity production cost from the studied system varied
from 13.25 to 17.78 BDT which is cost-competitive with grid-con-
nected fuel-oil based power generation which is around 15e18 BDT
[31]. If clean development mechanisms, carbon tax, and oil price
increase are considered, the unit cost would be lower than the grid-
connected fuel-oil based power generation. Favorable condition
was found based on all economic indicators as discussed for the
development of the proposed 1-MW grid-connected solar PV
system in Bangladesh. A pilot project of 1-MW grid-connected solar
PV system should be installed in order to supplement the electricity
grid, and studying the system performance under real Bangladesh
conditions should be carried out. Due to the high initial investment
cost of solar PV grid system, there should be favorable policies for
this sector.
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