Brexit

Shift August 2018

www.bestforbritain.org www.hopenothate.ORG.UK
Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Major new analysis shows over

half of UK constituencies now
support staying in the EU
n Ground-breaking research by Best for Britain and
HOPE not hate shows monumental shift in public opinion
against Brexit in the biggest study of its kind so far
n Huge shift in number of constituencies that are majority
remain, with 112 switching from leave to wanting to stay in
n Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg
would all see their constituencies swing to remain
n Analysis shows there are now 341 seats with majority
support to stay in the EU and only 291 with a leave majority
n Nearly half of English constituencies would now vote to
stay in, with 97 switching from leave. 257 of 533 English
constituencies would now vote to stay
n All Scottish constituencies would switch to backing a vote
to stay and 25 of 40 in Wales – an increase of 14

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Best for Britain has joined forces with HOPE not hate to produce the first full
analysis of changing attitudes on Brexit at a constituency-by-constituency level in
the UK. 
The analysis shows that over half of constituencies across England, Scotland and
Wales would now vote to stay, a monumental shift in the sands of public opinion at a
key point in the Brexit process.
Modelling of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales showed that in 2016, 229
were remain and 403 were leave seats. Our analysis shows that public opinion in 112
seats has shifted and that there are now 341 seats with majority remain support,
compared to 291 that are majority leave seats.
The Multilevel Regression and Poststratification analysis was carried out by
Focaldata, based on YouGov polling of a total of 15,000 people across June and July,
before and after the Prime Minister’s Chequers proposal.
Best for Britain believes this analysis is one of the clearest signs yet that the British
public want a chance to be heard, and are calling on Parliament to urgently legislate
for the public to have the final say on the Brexit deal.

The British are turning their backs on Brexit

Our analysis of a poll of over 15,000 people, taken either side of the Government’s Chequers deal,
shows that if a new Referendum was held today 53% of the British public would vote to stay in
the European Union as opposed to 47% who would still want to leave.
2017 Labour voters who voted leave in the EU Referendum are shifting dramatically. Our polling
shows that only 71% of these voters would back leave in a new referendum, with the biggest
movement occurring amongst poorer white working class voters.
Other groups that are shifting most are young leave voters and BME voters, particularly Hindus
and Muslims.
Wales has seen a substantial change, with remain now leading leave by 55.1% to 44.9%,
overturning a 53%/47% leave victory in the 2016 Referendum. In Rhondda, 60% of people voted
leave in 2016, but in another vote now, 50.4% would back remain. In Merthyr Tydfil, a 41.6% remain
vote in 2016 rises to 51.3% now.
In what could provoke a constitutional crisis, the voters of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
now all back staying in the European Union.
However, the shift in Labour leave voters is being partly offset by 2017 Conservative voters who
backed remain in the EU Referendum. Only 78% of 2017 Conservative voters who voted to remain
in the Referendum would vote the same way if there was a new vote, with 15% backing leave and
6% are now undecided. Overall, 69% of Tory supporters would back Brexit in a new poll, compared
to 25% who would support remain.
Using a method called Multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP), the consumer
analytics company Focaldata, who were commissioned by HOPE not hate and Best for Britain, has
estimated the constituency vote if there was another EU referendum today.
The results are startling.

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Voters in 112 parliamentary constituencies which backed leave in 2016 would now return remain
majorities today. The new analysis suggests there are now 341 seats with majority remain support,
up from 229 seats at the referendum – a complete reversal of 2016, when 403 constituencies
backed leave. One seat has switched support in Scotland and 97 have switched in England, while
an incredible 14 of the 40 seats in Wales have switched from leave to remain. Overall, the model
puts remain on 53% support, with 47% backing leave.
Yorkshire and South Wales have seen some of the biggest shifts. In Barnsley Central, where 31.6%
of voters backed remain in 2016, the figure has risen 17.2 points to 48.8%. In Swansea East a
12.8 point shift switches this seat from a leave majority in 2016 to 50.7% pro remain now.
The remain vote goes up 14.3 points in Liverpool Walton, 13.7 points in both Stoke on-Trent-South
and West Ham.
Other constituencies where the remain vote has gone up by double-digits include Rotherham,
Thurrock, Grimsby, Stoke-on-Trent North and the Rhondda.
Diane Abbott’s constituency, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, is the most remain seat in the
UK, with 82.5% of voters wanting to stay in the EU. The next most remain constituency is Jeremy
Corbyn’s Islington North, where 81.5% of voters want to stay in, up from 78.5% in 2016.
Over in West London, John McDonnell’s Hayes & Harlington has flipped from leave to remain, with
the remain vote now 12.5% higher than in 2016.
Whilst the remain vote has increased in virtually every Labour-held constituency, it has only
marginally increased or even fallen back in some Conservative held seats, reflecting the move
from remain to leave of Tory voters.
However, Tory-held seats in London and the South East have become more remain, with Boris
Johnson’s Uxbridge constituency and Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath seat both switching from leave
to remain. Even in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s seat of Somerset North East there has been a shift to
remain of 3 points, making it now 51.1% in favour of remain.
Over the coming days and weeks HOPE not hate and Best for Britain will release more information
explaining why the shift in attitudes against Brexit is happening and who precisely is moving.
We will also be explaining our campaign strategy to highlight how Brexit is failing the very people
who voted for it in the belief that it would make their lives better.
Opinion polls have been showing a shift in public attitudes towards Brexit for a few months, but
the rate of change has quickened in recent weeks. A 5,000 sample poll, commissioned by HOPE
not hate in February, found only a 2% lead for remain. Now it is slightly over 6%.
More importantly though, our research graphically demonstrates where the switch is happening
down to a constituency level and in the process it is going to pile the pressure on the Labour
Party to move.

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Analysis shows voters in most constituencies now favour remaining in the EU

Infographic: The Guardian

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Best for Britain champions from across the political

spectrum have come out in support of the research.
Commenting, Dr Philip Lee MP said:
“I am not at all surprised by these results. They very much reflect the views that I have been
hearing from residents and businesses in the Bracknell Constituency. 
“This research is a reflection of the increasing realisation that the reality of Brexit Britain will
not be the land of milk and honey that voters were promised by the campaign. Faced with the
prospect of a disastrous ‘No Deal’ Brexit or the Chequers ‘Worst of Both Worlds’ Brexit, it’s clear
that most people prefer the bespoke deal we already have with the EU. 
“It’s not too late. The British people should have the final say. Brexit must be put back to the
electorate in the form of a people’s vote.”

David Lammy MP said:

“When a slim majority of Brits voted for Brexit more than two years ago, they were promised
heaven. The reality they now have to deal with is hell. The pound is free-fall, our Prime Minister
is an international laughing stock, and our government’s negotiators are being made to look like
fools.
“It’s clear that the mood of the nation has changed. Many who voted in 2016 would now vote to
remain. They see that our problems are the result of our incompetent government in Westminster,
not decisions we make with our friends in Europe.
“With a majority of constituencies now in favour of remaining in the EU, I call on my colleagues
across the house to think about which side of history they want to be on. Do they want to be
remembered for helping to deliver a catastrophic Brexit which impoverishes the country, or the
side that gave the public a final say on the deal, with the right to stay in the EU and take a leading
role in its future?”

Caroline Lucas MP said:

“The tide is turning across the country now that the reality of Brexit is becoming clear. We owe
it to future generations to fight for their right to a final say on the Brexit deal. The establishment
need to give people a real choice, including the right to build a better Britain within a reformed
EU.”

Tom Brake MP said:

“This comprehensive analysis underlines the fact that public opinion is shifting. The mess the
Government are making of Brexit, and the facts that are now emerging point towards the urgent
need for a final say on the deal and a chance to exit from Brexit.” 

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Number of constituencies that have switched to remain

Country Number of constituencies that have switched to remain

England 97 (257/533 seats now remain)

Scotland 1 (59/59 seats now remain)

Wales 14 (25/40 seats now remain)

Top 20 switcher constituencies by largest point change 2016-18

Constituency Member of vote now Change from 2016
Parliament (percentage points)
Liverpool Walton Dan Carden 60.5% 14.3
Knowsley George Howarth 61.0% 13.4
Swansea East Carolyn Harris 50.7% 12.8
Hayes & Harlington John McDonnell 53.4% 12.8
Oldham West & Royton Jim McMahon 51.3% 12.6
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Gill Furniss 51.0% 12.4
Hull North Diana Johnson 52.4% 12.4
Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips 52.3% 12.4
Rhondda Chris Bryant 51.1% 12.3
Warley John Spellar 50.2% 12.0
Barking Margaret Hodge 51.5% 11.8
Halton Derek Twigg 54.0% 11.8
Bootle Peter Dowd 56.5% 11.3
Luton North Kelvin Hopkins 53.1% 11.3
Bradford East Imran Hussain 56.1% 11.3
Gateshead Ian Mearns 55.2% 11.3
Feltham & Heston Seema Malhotra 55.3% 11.2
Preston Mark Hendrick 54.3% 11.2
Rochdale Tony Lloyd 53.4% 10.8
Southampton Itchen Royston Smith 50.9% 10.8

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

112 Switch seats

Region Constituency 2016 2018 Region Constituency 2016 2018
East Midlands Broxtowe leave remain South East Bracknell leave remain
East Midlands Derby North leave remain South East Eastleigh leave remain
East Midlands Derbyshire Mid leave remain South East Milton Keynes South leave remain
East Midlands Gedling leave remain South East Portsmouth South leave remain
East Midlands Harborough leave remain South East Reading West leave remain
East Midlands High Peak leave remain South East Slough leave remain
East Midlands Leicester East leave remain South East Southampton Itchen leave remain
East Midlands Leicester West leave remain South East Southampton Test leave remain
Eastern Bedford leave remain South East Southend West leave remain
Eastern Chelmsford leave remain South East Surrey Heath leave remain
Eastern Colchester leave remain South East Worthing East & Shoreham leave remain
Eastern Hertsmere leave remain South West Bournemouth East leave remain
Eastern Ipswich leave remain South West Chippenham leave remain
Eastern Luton North leave remain South West Devon East leave remain
Eastern Luton South leave remain South West Dorset West leave remain
Eastern Watford leave remain South West Plymouth Sutton & Devonport leave remain
Eastern Welwyn Hatfield leave remain South West Poole leave remain
London Barking leave remain South West Salisbury leave remain
London Carshalton & Wallington leave remain South West Somerset North East leave remain
London Croydon Central leave remain South West St Ives leave remain
London Eltham leave remain South West Swindon South leave remain
London Erith & Thamesmead leave remain South West Thornbury & Yate leave remain
London Feltham & Heston leave remain South West Wiltshire North leave remain
London Hayes & Harlington leave remain Wales Aberconwy leave remain
London Ilford North leave remain Wales Caerphilly leave remain
London Sutton & Cheam leave remain Wales Carmarthen East & Dinefwr leave remain
London Uxbridge & Ruislip South leave remain Wales Cynon Valley leave remain
North East Gateshead leave remain Wales Gower leave remain
North West Knowsley leave remain Wales Llanelli leave remain
North West Lancashire West leave remain Wales Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney leave remain
North West Lancaster & Fleetwood leave remain Wales Neath leave remain
North West Liverpool Walton leave remain Wales Newport West leave remain
North West Liverpool West Derby leave remain Wales Rhondda leave remain
North West Oldham West & Royton leave remain Wales Swansea East leave remain
North West Preston leave remain Wales Vale of Clwyd leave remain
North West Rochdale leave remain Wales Vale of Glamorgan leave remain
North West Salford & Eccles leave remain Wales Ynys Mon leave remain
North West St Helens North leave remain West Midlands Birmingham Hodge Hill leave remain
North West St Helens South & Whiston leave remain West Midlands Birmingham Perry Barr leave remain
North West Stalybridge & Hyde leave remain West Midlands Birmingham Yardley leave remain
North West Warrington South leave remain West Midlands Coventry North East leave remain
North West Birkenhead leave remain West Midlands Hertfordshire North East leave remain
North West Blackburn leave remain West Midlands Shrewsbury & Atcham leave remain
North West Blackley & Broughton leave remain West Midlands Warley leave remain
North West Bootle leave remain West Midlands Wolverhampton South West leave remain
North West Bury North leave remain West Midlands Worcester leave remain
North West Bury South leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Bradford East leave remain
North West Ellesmere Port & Neston leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Calder Valley leave remain
North West Halton leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Halifax leave remain
North West Hazel Grove leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Huddersfield leave remain
North West Weaver Vale leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Hull North leave remain
North West Worsley & Eccles South leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Keighley leave remain
Scotland Banff & Buchan leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Leeds West leave remain
South East Aylesbury leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough leave remain
South East Banbury leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Sheffield Heeley leave remain
South East Basingstoke leave remain Yorkshire & Humber Shipley leave remain

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Seats with a majority to stay in the EU 2016-2018

Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018 Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave remain leave remain leave
Aberconwy 46.6% 53.4% 50.3% 49.7% Caerphilly 44.8% 55.2% 52.0% 48.0%
Aberdeen North 56.9% 43.1% 64.9% 35.1% Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 50.6% 49.4% 56.8% 43.2%
Aberdeen South 67.7% 32.3% 68.5% 31.5% Calder Valley 46.8% 53.2% 52.2% 47.8%
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 61.4% 38.6% 58.5% 41.5% Camberwell & Peckham 69.8% 30.2% 76.0% 24.0%
Airdrie & Shotts 59.9% 40.1% 60.6% 39.4% Cambridge 73.8% 26.2% 76.9% 23.1%
Altrincham & Sale West 61.5% 38.5% 61.3% 38.7% Cambridgeshire South 61.6% 38.4% 60.1% 39.9%
Angus 51.9% 48.1% 56.6% 43.4% Cambridgeshire South East 55.0% 45.0% 56.9% 43.1%
Arfon 65.1% 34.9% 67.7% 32.3% Canterbury 54.7% 45.3% 57.2% 42.8%
Argyll & Bute 60.6% 39.4% 64.6% 35.4% Cardiff Central 69.6% 30.4% 72.2% 27.8%
Aylesbury 47.9% 52.1% 53.0% 47.0% Cardiff North 60.9% 39.1% 62.5% 37.5%
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 57.0% 43.0% 58.5% 41.5% Cardiff South & Penarth 55.1% 44.9% 57.5% 42.5%
Ayrshire Central 57.3% 42.7% 61.6% 38.4% Cardiff West 55.2% 44.8% 61.1% 38.9%
Ayrshire North & Arran 57.7% 42.3% 60.4% 39.6% Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 46.2% 53.8% 50.1% 49.9%
Banbury 49.5% 50.5% 51.7% 48.3% Carshalton & Wallington 43.7% 56.3% 51.3% 48.7%
Banff & Buchan 46.0% 54.0% 51.2% 48.8% Ceredigion 54.6% 45.4% 57.7% 42.3%
Barking 39.7% 60.3% 51.5% 48.5% Cheadle 57.3% 42.7% 60.3% 39.7%
Basingstoke 46.4% 53.6% 50.8% 49.2% Chelmsford 49.5% 50.5% 55.3% 44.7%
Bath 68.3% 31.7% 71.2% 28.8% Chelsea & Fulham 70.8% 29.2% 69.8% 30.2%
Battersea 77.0% 23.0% 75.7% 24.3% Cheltenham 57.2% 42.8% 62.2% 37.8%
Beaconsfield 50.7% 49.3% 51.0% 49.0% Chesham & Amersham 55.0% 45.0% 56.7% 43.3%
Beckenham 51.6% 48.4% 53.3% 46.7% Chester, City of 57.3% 42.7% 61.0% 39.0%
Bedford 48.1% 51.9% 57.0% 43.0% Chingford & Woodford Green 50.8% 49.2% 56.4% 43.6%
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 73.0% 27.0% 78.0% 22.0% Chippenham 47.7% 52.3% 50.9% 49.1%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 56.8% 43.2% 54.3% 45.7% Chipping Barnet 59.1% 40.9% 60.7% 39.3%
Bethnal Green & Bow 69.1% 30.9% 75.7% 24.3% Cities of London & Westminster 71.4% 28.6% 71.6% 28.4%
Birkenhead 48.3% 51.7% 58.4% 41.6% Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 61.3% 38.7% 67.4% 32.6%
Birmingham Edgbaston 52.7% 47.3% 58.0% 42.0% Colchester 48.9% 51.1% 57.0% 43.0%
Birmingham Hall Green 66.4% 33.6% 69.3% 30.7% Colne Valley 50.2% 49.8% 52.9% 47.1%
Birmingham Hodge Hill 48.5% 51.5% 56.9% 43.1% Coventry North East 40.8% 59.2% 50.7% 49.3%
Birmingham Ladywood 64.4% 35.6% 72.1% 27.9% Coventry South 51.1% 48.9% 56.5% 43.5%
Birmingham Perry Barr 48.8% 51.2% 55.9% 44.1% Croydon Central 49.7% 50.3% 58.8% 41.2%
Birmingham Selly Oak 53.1% 46.9% 60.7% 39.3% Croydon North 58.8% 41.2% 64.9% 35.1%
Birmingham Yardley 39.9% 60.1% 52.3% 47.7% Croydon South 54.2% 45.8% 55.3% 44.7%
Blackburn 46.3% 53.7% 54.1% 45.9% Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 62.1% 37.9% 65.2% 34.8%
Blackley & Broughton 48.7% 51.3% 59.0% 41.0% Cynon Valley 43.0% 57.0% 50.4% 49.6%
Bootle 45.1% 54.9% 56.5% 43.5% Derby North 46.3% 53.7% 52.0% 48.0%
Bournemouth East 46.5% 53.5% 53.3% 46.7% Derbyshire Mid 47.5% 52.5% 50.1% 49.9%
Bracknell 46.7% 53.3% 52.6% 47.4% Devon East 49.5% 50.5% 50.7% 49.3%
Bradford East 44.8% 55.2% 56.1% 43.9% Dorset West 49.0% 51.0% 50.4% 49.6%
Bradford West 53.3% 46.7% 60.8% 39.2% Dulwich & West Norwood 77.9% 22.1% 80.7% 19.3%
Brent Central 57.1% 42.9% 65.1% 34.9% Dumfries & Galloway 54.6% 45.4% 56.2% 43.8%
Brent North 56.9% 43.1% 63.3% 36.7% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale 56.1% 43.9% 57.9% 42.1%
Brentford & Isleworth 56.7% 43.3% 63.9% 36.1% Dunbartonshire East 73.3% 26.7% 76.8% 23.2%
Bridgend 50.3% 49.7% 55.6% 44.4% Dunbartonshire West 62.0% 38.0% 67.3% 32.7%
Brighton Kemptown 56.6% 43.4% 61.1% 38.9% Dundee East 61.7% 38.3% 64.9% 35.1%
Brighton Pavilion 74.3% 25.7% 75.7% 24.3% Dundee West 58.8% 41.2% 65.8% 34.2%
Bristol East 53.2% 46.8% 61.1% 38.9% Dunfermline & Fife West 60.0% 40.0% 65.3% 34.7%
Bristol North West 61.1% 38.9% 63.0% 37.0% Durham, City of 55.6% 44.4% 59.7% 40.3%
Bristol South 52.0% 48.0% 58.9% 41.1% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 51.6% 48.4% 54.1% 45.9%
Bristol West 79.3% 20.7% 81.3% 18.7% Ealing Central & Acton 70.8% 29.2% 73.0% 27.0%
Bromley & Chislehurst 50.2% 49.8% 52.3% 47.7% Ealing North 53.7% 46.3% 61.3% 38.7%
Broxtowe 47.6% 52.4% 53.3% 46.7% Ealing Southall 58.2% 41.8% 65.3% 34.7%
Buckingham 51.3% 48.7% 57.9% 42.1% East Ham 53.1% 46.9% 66.6% 33.4%
Bury North 46.3% 53.7% 52.3% 47.7% East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 62.0% 38.0% 65.5% 34.5%
Bury South 45.5% 54.5% 53.1% 46.9% East Lothian 64.6% 35.4% 66.2% 33.8%

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Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Seats with a majority to stay in the EU 2016-2018 (continued)

Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018 Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave remain leave remain leave
Eastleigh 46.0% 54.0% 50.7% 49.3% Hexham 54.6% 45.4% 53.9% 46.1%
Edinburgh East 72.4% 27.6% 73.6% 26.4% High Peak 49.5% 50.5% 53.7% 46.3%
Edinburgh North & Leith 78.2% 21.8% 78.7% 21.3% Hitchin & Harpenden 60.2% 39.8% 59.6% 40.4%
Edinburgh South 77.8% 22.2% 79.4% 20.6% Holborn & St Pancras 73.3% 26.7% 75.1% 24.9%
Edinburgh South West 72.1% 27.9% 69.8% 30.2% Hornsey & Wood Green 75.0% 25.0% 78.2% 21.8%
Edinburgh West 71.2% 28.8% 72.8% 27.2% Horsham 51.3% 48.7% 51.9% 48.1%
Edmonton 54.5% 45.5% 60.0% 40.0% Hove 66.1% 33.9% 68.7% 31.3%
Ellesmere Port & Neston 42.2% 57.8% 50.4% 49.6% Huddersfield 48.9% 51.1% 56.7% 43.3%
Eltham 48.2% 51.8% 53.4% 46.6% Hull North 40.0% 60.0% 52.4% 47.6%
Enfield North 50.8% 49.2% 58.6% 41.4% Ilford North 47.4% 52.6% 52.7% 47.3%
Enfield Southgate 62.1% 37.9% 64.1% 35.9% Ilford South 56.1% 43.9% 64.4% 35.6%
Epsom & Ewell 52.0% 48.0% 53.9% 46.1% Inverclyde 63.8% 36.2% 66.7% 33.3%
Erith & Thamesmead 45.7% 54.3% 55.3% 44.7% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 58.6% 41.4% 61.1% 38.9%
Esher & Walton 58.4% 41.6% 58.6% 41.4% Ipswich 43.4% 56.6% 52.8% 47.2%
Exeter 55.3% 44.7% 61.6% 38.4% Islington North 78.4% 21.6% 81.5% 18.5%
Falkirk 58.0% 42.0% 65.3% 34.7% Islington South & Finsbury 71.7% 28.3% 76.6% 23.4%
Feltham & Heston 44.1% 55.9% 55.3% 44.7% Keighley 46.7% 53.3% 50.5% 49.5%
Fife North East 61.9% 38.1% 65.3% 34.7% Kenilworth & Southam 53.4% 46.6% 53.0% 47.0%
Filton & Bradley Stoke 52.0% 48.0% 55.5% 44.5% Kensington 68.6% 31.4% 66.6% 33.4%
Finchley & Golders Green 69.1% 30.9% 69.0% 31.0% Kilmarnock & Loudoun 60.4% 39.6% 61.3% 38.7%
Garston & Halewood 52.1% 47.9% 62.2% 37.8% Kingston & Surbiton 58.4% 41.6% 64.0% 36.0%
Gateshead 44.0% 56.0% 55.2% 44.8% Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 58.3% 41.7% 62.6% 37.4%
Gedling 43.8% 56.2% 52.4% 47.6% Knowsley 47.6% 52.4% 61.0% 39.0%
Glasgow Central 71.2% 28.8% 73.9% 26.1% Lanark & Hamilton East 64.5% 35.5% 62.9% 37.1%
Glasgow East 56.2% 43.8% 60.0% 40.0% Lancashire West 45.1% 54.9% 51.3% 48.7%
Glasgow North 78.4% 21.6% 76.2% 23.8% Lancaster & Fleetwood 49.1% 50.9% 53.7% 46.3%
Glasgow North East 59.3% 40.7% 64.3% 35.7% Leeds Central 52.6% 47.4% 58.3% 41.7%
Glasgow North West 68.5% 31.5% 70.8% 29.2% Leeds North East 62.7% 37.3% 68.0% 32.0%
Glasgow South 71.8% 28.2% 72.3% 27.7% Leeds North West 64.6% 35.4% 68.4% 31.6%
Glasgow South West 59.1% 40.9% 64.5% 35.5% Leeds West 45.0% 55.0% 54.5% 45.5%
Glenrothes 53.5% 46.5% 60.0% 40.0% Leicester East 46.8% 53.2% 54.3% 45.7%
Gordon 55.4% 44.6% 59.4% 40.6% Leicester South 57.4% 42.6% 63.5% 36.5%
Gower 49.8% 50.2% 53.0% 47.0% Leicester West 48.3% 51.7% 55.4% 44.6%
Greenwich & Woolwich 64.3% 35.7% 69.3% 30.7% Lewes 53.0% 47.0% 53.8% 46.2%
Guildford 58.8% 41.2% 59.0% 41.0% Lewisham Deptford 75.3% 24.7% 79.6% 20.4%
Hackney North & Stoke Newington 79.1% 20.9% 82.5% 17.5% Lewisham East 64.6% 35.4% 69.8% 30.2%
Hackney South & Shoreditch 77.8% 22.2% 77.9% 22.1% Lewisham West & Penge 65.5% 34.5% 70.6% 29.4%
Halifax 41.2% 58.8% 50.2% 49.8% Leyton & Wanstead 65.0% 35.0% 70.8% 29.2%
Halton 42.2% 57.8% 54.0% 46.0% Linlithgow & Falkirk East 58.4% 41.6% 62.8% 37.2%
Hammersmith 69.0% 31.0% 72.5% 27.5% Liverpool Riverside 73.1% 26.9% 75.8% 24.2%
Hampshire East 51.3% 48.7% 51.5% 48.5% Liverpool Walton 46.2% 53.8% 60.5% 39.5%
Hampshire North East 54.1% 45.9% 53.1% 46.9% Liverpool Wavertree 64.2% 35.8% 68.9% 31.1%
Hampstead & Kilburn 76.5% 23.5% 77.6% 22.4% Liverpool West Derby 49.7% 50.3% 60.0% 40.0%
Harborough 47.8% 52.2% 50.6% 49.4% Livingston 56.2% 43.8% 60.6% 39.4%
Harrogate & Knaresborough 52.8% 47.2% 55.1% 44.9% Llanelli 44.5% 55.5% 50.9% 49.1%
Harrow East 52.5% 47.5% 55.3% 44.7% Loughborough 50.3% 49.7% 51.1% 48.9%
Harrow West 54.9% 45.1% 63.4% 36.6% Luton North 41.8% 58.2% 53.1% 46.9%
Hayes & Harlington 40.6% 59.4% 53.4% 46.6% Luton South 44.6% 55.4% 54.8% 45.2%
Hazel Grove 47.8% 52.2% 53.6% 46.4% Macclesfield 51.8% 48.2% 53.8% 46.2%
Hendon 58.1% 41.9% 60.6% 39.4% Maidenhead 54.6% 45.4% 57.1% 42.9%
Henley 56.9% 43.1% 53.3% 46.7% Manchester Central 63.3% 36.7% 68.4% 31.6%
Hertford & Stortford 50.8% 49.2% 51.2% 48.8% Manchester Gorton 62.1% 37.9% 68.0% 32.0%
Hertfordshire North East 48.6% 51.4% 51.4% 48.6% Manchester Withington 73.7% 26.3% 77.4% 22.6%
Hertfordshire South West 53.6% 46.4% 55.0% 45.0% Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 41.6% 58.4% 51.3% 48.7%
Hertsmere 49.2% 50.8% 52.7% 47.3% Midlothian 62.1% 37.9% 63.5% 36.5%

page 10 of 15
Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Seats with a majority to stay in the EU 2016-2018 (continued)

Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018 Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave remain leave remain leave
Milton Keynes North 50.2% 49.8% 56.5% 43.5% Somerset North 52.0% 48.0% 54.1% 45.9%
Milton Keynes South 47.0% 53.0% 53.0% 47.0% Somerset North East 47.9% 52.1% 51.1% 48.9%
Mitcham & Morden 55.3% 44.7% 64.3% 35.7% Southampton Itchen 40.0% 60.0% 50.9% 49.1%
Mole Valley 52.4% 47.6% 51.0% 49.0% Southampton Test 49.3% 50.7% 60.0% 40.0%
Monmouth 52.2% 47.8% 54.0% 46.0% Southend West 44.9% 55.1% 50.6% 49.4%
Moray 50.1% 49.9% 53.3% 46.7% Southport 54.5% 45.5% 57.5% 42.5%
Motherwell & Wishaw 63.0% 37.0% 67.2% 32.8% St Albans 62.0% 38.0% 64.1% 35.9%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) 56.1% 43.9% 59.3% 40.7% St Helens North 41.7% 58.3% 50.9% 49.1%
Neath 45.8% 54.2% 53.8% 46.2% St Helens South & Whiston 43.9% 56.1% 52.0% 48.0%
Newbury 52.5% 47.5% 53.6% 46.4% St Ives 44.9% 55.1% 51.5% 48.5%
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 51.6% 48.4% 58.6% 41.4% Stalybridge & Hyde 40.7% 59.3% 51.1% 48.9%
Newcastle upon Tyne East 58.9% 41.1% 65.3% 34.7% Stirling 67.8% 32.2% 67.4% 32.6%
Newport West 47.0% 53.0% 50.6% 49.4% Stockport 53.2% 46.8% 60.0% 40.0%
Norwich South 59.6% 40.4% 62.1% 37.9% Streatham 79.5% 20.5% 81.1% 18.9%
Nottingham East 57.1% 42.9% 64.1% 35.9% Stretford & Urmston 51.5% 48.5% 60.5% 39.5%
Nottingham South 53.5% 46.5% 60.1% 39.9% Stroud 54.0% 46.0% 55.7% 44.3%
Ochil & South Perthshire 60.7% 39.3% 59.4% 40.6% Surrey Heath 48.0% 52.0% 50.2% 49.8%
Oldham West & Royton 38.7% 61.3% 51.3% 48.7% Surrey South West 59.4% 40.6% 58.9% 41.1%
Orkney & Shetland 59.7% 40.3% 64.7% 35.3% Sussex Mid 53.3% 46.7% 53.7% 46.3%
Oxford East 67.7% 32.3% 72.0% 28.0% Sutton & Cheam 48.7% 51.3% 55.2% 44.8%
Oxford West & Abingdon 61.8% 38.2% 65.8% 34.2% Swansea East 37.9% 62.1% 50.7% 49.3%
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 63.9% 36.1% 67.5% 32.5% Swansea West 57.3% 42.7% 61.1% 38.9%
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 65.8% 34.2% 69.1% 30.9% Swindon South 48.4% 51.6% 52.5% 47.5%
Perth & North Perthshire 59.8% 40.2% 61.1% 38.9% Tatton 54.2% 45.8% 53.0% 47.0%
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 45.6% 54.4% 51.4% 48.6% The Cotswolds 52.2% 47.8% 52.5% 47.5%
Pontypridd 54.2% 45.8% 59.4% 40.6% Thornbury & Yate 46.7% 53.3% 51.5% 48.5%
Poole 43.1% 56.9% 50.3% 49.7% Tooting 74.7% 25.3% 76.5% 23.5%
Poplar & Limehouse 65.8% 34.2% 68.2% 31.8% Tottenham 76.2% 23.8% 76.0% 24.0%
Portsmouth South 48.2% 51.8% 58.8% 41.2% Truro & Falmouth 53.8% 46.2% 57.2% 42.8%
Preston 43.1% 56.9% 54.3% 45.7% Tunbridge Wells 55.3% 44.7% 56.2% 43.8%
Pudsey 51.6% 48.4% 55.7% 44.3% Twickenham 66.3% 33.7% 69.2% 30.8%
Putney 73.1% 26.9% 74.4% 25.6% Tynemouth 52.2% 47.8% 56.4% 43.6%
Reading East 61.8% 38.2% 66.4% 33.6% Uxbridge & Ruislip South 43.6% 56.4% 51.4% 48.6%
Reading West 47.3% 52.7% 52.5% 47.5% Vale of Clwyd 44.1% 55.9% 50.2% 49.8%
Reigate 52.2% 47.8% 52.8% 47.2% Vale of Glamorgan 47.7% 52.3% 50.1% 49.9%
Renfrewshire East 74.3% 25.7% 72.9% 27.1% Vauxhall 77.6% 22.4% 80.7% 19.3%
Rhondda 38.8% 61.2% 51.1% 48.9% Wallasey 50.1% 49.9% 56.5% 43.5%
Richmond Park 72.3% 27.7% 74.0% 26.0% Walthamstow 66.5% 33.5% 73.0% 27.0%
Rochdale 42.5% 57.5% 53.4% 46.6% Wantage 53.6% 46.4% 54.4% 45.6%
Romsey & Southampton North 54.2% 45.8% 54.0% 46.0% Warley 38.2% 61.8% 50.2% 49.8%
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 56.6% 43.4% 58.9% 41.1% Warrington South 49.4% 50.6% 54.9% 45.1%
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 51.0% 49.0% 54.9% 45.1% Warwick & Leamington 58.9% 41.1% 63.9% 36.1%
Runnymede & Weybridge 50.2% 49.8% 52.6% 47.4% Watford 48.8% 51.2% 55.0% 45.0%
Rushcliffe 58.7% 41.3% 58.3% 41.7% Weaver Vale 49.8% 50.2% 54.0% 46.0%
Rutherglen & Hamilton West 62.7% 37.3% 67.9% 32.1% Welwyn Hatfield 47.5% 52.5% 53.5% 46.5%
Salford & Eccles 46.4% 53.6% 55.1% 44.9% West Ham 52.6% 47.4% 66.3% 33.7%
Salisbury 49.7% 50.3% 50.7% 49.3% Westminster North 67.0% 33.0% 69.4% 30.6%
Sefton Central 54.9% 45.1% 61.0% 39.0% Westmorland & Lonsdale 52.5% 47.5% 55.6% 44.4%
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 38.6% 61.4% 51.0% 49.0% Wiltshire North 49.6% 50.4% 51.5% 48.5%
Sheffield Central 69.6% 30.4% 71.9% 28.1% Wimbledon 70.6% 29.4% 71.8% 28.2%
Sheffield Hallam 64.1% 35.9% 68.3% 31.7% Winchester 60.3% 39.7% 59.8% 40.2%
Sheffield Heeley 42.4% 57.6% 51.7% 48.3% Windsor 53.9% 46.1% 55.1% 44.9%
Shipley 47.8% 52.2% 52.1% 47.9% Wirral South 53.5% 46.5% 59.7% 40.3%
Shrewsbury & Atcham 47.0% 53.0% 50.6% 49.4% Wirral West 55.3% 44.7% 59.1% 40.9%
Slough 45.9% 54.1% 56.6% 43.4% Witney 53.7% 46.3% 56.4% 43.6%

page 11 of 15
Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Seats with a majority to stay in the EU 2016-2018 (continued)

Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018 Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave remain leave remain leave
Woking 55.9% 44.1% 59.1% 40.9% Wycombe 52.0% 48.0% 57.6% 42.4%
Wokingham 57.5% 42.5% 57.5% 42.5% Wythenshawe & Sale East 50.1% 49.9% 58.1% 41.9%
Wolverhampton South West 45.6% 54.4% 51.6% 48.4% Ynys Mon 49.1% 50.9% 55.0% 45.0%
Worcester 46.3% 53.7% 53.0% 47.0% York Central 61.5% 38.5% 68.2% 31.8%
Worsley & Eccles South 40.2% 59.8% 50.1% 49.9% York Outer 55.1% 44.9% 58.1% 41.9%
Worthing East & Shoreham 46.3% 53.7% 51.3% 48.7%

Seats with a majority to leave the EU 2016-2018

Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018 Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave remain leave remain leave
Aberavon 40.00% 60.00% 49.90% 50.10% Brentwood & Ongar 39.10% 60.90% 41.60% 58.40%
Aldershot 42.10% 57.90% 48.90% 51.10% Bridgwater & Somerset West 37.80% 62.20% 40.50% 59.50%
Aldridge-Brownhills 32.20% 67.80% 37.70% 62.30% Brigg & Goole 33.80% 66.20% 39.50% 60.50%
Alyn & Deeside 42.30% 57.70% 49.40% 50.60% Broadland 45.90% 54.10% 45.70% 54.30%
Amber Valley 34.70% 65.30% 43.10% 56.90% Bromsgrove 44.60% 55.40% 47.00% 53.00%
Arundel & South Downs 49.30% 50.70% 48.80% 51.20% Broxbourne 34.20% 65.80% 40.10% 59.90%
Ashfield 29.40% 70.60% 38.90% 61.10% Burnley 33.40% 66.60% 45.40% 54.60%
Ashford 40.30% 59.70% 43.00% 57.00% Burton 35.40% 64.60% 42.10% 57.90%
Ashton Under Lyne 38.20% 61.80% 47.60% 52.40% Bury St Edmunds 46.30% 53.70% 49.20% 50.80%
Barnsley Central 31.60% 68.40% 48.80% 51.20% Camborne & Redruth 42.10% 57.90% 46.90% 53.10%
Barnsley East 29.20% 70.80% 40.00% 60.00% Cambridgeshire North East 30.60% 69.40% 35.40% 64.60%
Barrow & Furness 43.20% 56.80% 46.80% 53.20% Cambridgeshire North West 43.00% 57.00% 44.00% 56.00%
Basildon & Billericay 33.10% 66.90% 38.90% 61.10% Cannock Chase 31.10% 68.90% 39.10% 60.90%
Basildon South & Thurrock East 26.90% 73.10% 34.60% 65.40% Carlisle 39.50% 60.50% 46.20% 53.80%
Bassetlaw 31.70% 68.30% 38.10% 61.90% Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South 44.60% 55.40% 47.50% 52.50%
Batley & Spen 39.60% 60.40% 46.00% 54.00% Castle Point 27.30% 72.70% 34.20% 65.80%
Bedfordshire Mid 47.70% 52.30% 49.60% 50.40% Charnwood 41.70% 58.30% 44.10% 55.90%
Bedfordshire North East 46.70% 53.30% 48.00% 52.00% Chatham & Aylesford 35.30% 64.70% 40.20% 59.80%
Bedfordshire South West 41.40% 58.60% 48.40% 51.60% Chesterfield 40.70% 59.30% 48.80% 51.20%
Berwick-upon-Tweed 44.40% 55.60% 47.80% 52.20% Chichester 49.40% 50.60% 49.10% 50.90%
Beverley & Holderness 41.20% 58.80% 43.60% 56.40% Chorley 43.40% 56.60% 49.00% 51.00%
Bexhill & Battle 42.30% 57.70% 43.10% 56.90% Christchurch 40.10% 59.90% 41.90% 58.10%
Bexleyheath & Crayford 35.00% 65.00% 43.50% 56.50% Clacton 28.90% 71.10% 32.90% 67.10%
Birmingham Erdington 37.00% 63.00% 47.30% 52.70% Cleethorpes 31.60% 68.40% 38.20% 61.80%
Birmingham Northfield 38.20% 61.80% 49.20% 50.80% Clwyd South 39.70% 60.30% 47.50% 52.50%
Bishop Auckland 39.40% 60.60% 45.30% 54.70% Congleton 47.30% 52.70% 49.60% 50.40%
Blackpool North & Cleveleys 33.10% 66.90% 43.70% 56.30% Copeland 40.20% 59.80% 44.20% 55.80%
Blackpool South 32.20% 67.80% 41.80% 58.20% Corby 39.90% 60.10% 45.60% 54.40%
Blaenau Gwent 38.00% 62.00% 49.60% 50.40% Cornwall North 39.70% 60.30% 45.20% 54.80%
Blyth Valley 40.10% 59.90% 48.40% 51.60% Cornwall South East 45.10% 54.90% 46.40% 53.60%
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton 35.80% 64.20% 39.10% 60.90% Coventry North West 41.30% 58.70% 49.00% 51.00%
Bolsover 29.70% 70.30% 38.60% 61.40% Crawley 41.60% 58.40% 49.30% 50.70%
Bolton North East 42.20% 57.80% 48.70% 51.30% Crewe & Nantwich 41.00% 59.00% 46.40% 53.60%
Bolton South East 36.60% 63.40% 46.20% 53.80% Dagenham & Rainham 30.10% 69.90% 40.70% 59.30%
Bolton West 44.50% 55.50% 49.70% 50.30% Darlington 41.90% 58.10% 46.80% 53.20%
Boston & Skegness 25.00% 75.00% 31.10% 68.90% Dartford 36.00% 64.00% 43.50% 56.50%
Bosworth 39.20% 60.80% 43.40% 56.60% Daventry 41.20% 58.80% 41.10% 58.90%
Bournemouth West 42.10% 57.90% 47.80% 52.20% Delyn 45.20% 54.80% 48.40% 51.60%
Bradford South 36.40% 63.60% 44.50% 55.50% Denton & Reddish 39.00% 61.00% 49.80% 50.20%
Braintree 38.60% 61.40% 43.80% 56.20% Derby South 38.40% 61.60% 48.80% 51.20%
Brecon & Radnorshire 48.30% 51.70% 49.80% 50.20% Derbyshire Dales 48.70% 51.30% 48.30% 51.70%

page 12 of 15
Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Seats with a majority to leave the EU 2016-2018 (continued)

Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018 Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave remain leave remain leave
Derbyshire North East 37.80% 62.20% 43.10% 56.90% Huntingdon 46.70% 53.30% 49.20% 50.80%
Derbyshire South 39.60% 60.40% 44.50% 55.50% Hyndburn 34.20% 65.80% 41.90% 58.10%
Devizes 48.50% 51.50% 48.30% 51.70% Isle of Wight 38.10% 61.90% 42.50% 57.50%
Devon Central 48.80% 51.20% 49.50% 50.50% Islwyn 41.10% 58.90% 47.50% 52.50%
Devon North 43.00% 57.00% 47.30% 52.70% Kettering 39.00% 61.00% 43.90% 56.10%
Devon South West 44.80% 55.20% 46.70% 53.30% Kingswood 43.20% 56.80% 47.10% 52.90%
Devon West & Torridge 42.90% 57.10% 44.00% 56.00% Leeds East 39.10% 60.90% 48.90% 51.10%
Dewsbury 42.70% 57.30% 45.90% 54.10% Leicestershire North West 39.30% 60.70% 45.80% 54.20%
Don Valley 31.40% 68.60% 39.50% 60.50% Leicestershire South 41.80% 58.20% 44.70% 55.30%
Doncaster Central 33.70% 66.30% 42.70% 57.30% Leigh 36.50% 63.50% 46.00% 54.00%
Doncaster North 27.90% 72.10% 40.60% 59.40% Lichfield 42.40% 57.60% 44.30% 55.70%
Dorset Mid & Poole North 42.10% 57.90% 43.20% 56.80% Lincoln 42.70% 57.30% 47.50% 52.50%
Dorset North 43.60% 56.40% 45.60% 54.40% Louth & Horncastle 30.60% 69.40% 34.60% 65.40%
Dorset South 40.50% 59.50% 43.30% 56.70% Ludlow 41.40% 58.60% 41.60% 58.40%
Dover 36.90% 63.10% 43.20% 56.80% Maidstone & The Weald 44.10% 55.90% 46.10% 53.90%
Dudley North 28.60% 71.40% 37.80% 62.20% Makerfield 35.00% 65.00% 46.00% 54.00%
Dudley South 29.60% 70.40% 39.70% 60.30% Maldon 38.70% 61.30% 40.40% 59.60%
Durham North 39.90% 60.10% 47.40% 52.60% Mansfield 29.10% 70.90% 36.00% 64.00%
Durham North West 45.00% 55.00% 49.80% 50.20% Meon Valley 47.10% 52.90% 46.40% 53.60%
Easington 33.40% 66.60% 46.20% 53.80% Meriden 41.20% 58.80% 45.00% 55.00%
Eastbourne 42.40% 57.60% 48.60% 51.40% Middlesbrough 33.90% 66.10% 46.80% 53.20%
Eddisbury 47.80% 52.20% 48.10% 51.90% Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East 35.00% 65.00% 42.70% 57.30%
Elmet & Rothwell 43.60% 56.40% 46.80% 53.20% Montgomeryshire 44.00% 56.00% 47.10% 52.90%
Epping Forest 38.90% 61.10% 43.00% 57.00% Morecambe & Lunesdale 41.10% 58.90% 45.30% 54.70%
Erewash 36.70% 63.30% 42.90% 57.10% Morley & Outwood 40.20% 59.80% 46.00% 54.00%
Fareham 44.60% 55.40% 45.10% 54.90% New Forest East 40.50% 59.50% 43.50% 56.50%
Faversham & Kent Mid 41.80% 58.20% 41.90% 58.10% New Forest West 44.10% 55.90% 44.80% 55.20%
Folkestone & Hythe 38.20% 61.80% 40.10% 59.90% Newark 44.20% 55.80% 45.30% 54.70%
Forest of Dean 41.90% 58.10% 43.50% 56.50% Newcastle upon Tyne North 42.90% 57.10% 48.90% 51.10%
Fylde 43.40% 56.60% 44.60% 55.40% Newcastle-under-Lyme 38.30% 61.70% 47.10% 52.90%
Gainsborough 38.00% 62.00% 40.60% 59.40% Newport East 39.70% 60.30% 49.20% 50.80%
Gillingham & Rainham 36.40% 63.60% 43.10% 56.90% Newton Abbot 43.90% 56.10% 49.90% 50.10%
Gloucester 41.10% 58.90% 48.30% 51.70% Norfolk Mid 39.40% 60.60% 42.00% 58.00%
Gosport 38.00% 62.00% 43.10% 56.90% Norfolk North 41.70% 58.30% 49.40% 50.60%
Grantham & Stamford 39.00% 61.00% 42.80% 57.20% Norfolk North West 33.90% 66.10% 37.70% 62.30%
Gravesham 34.60% 65.40% 42.10% 57.90% Norfolk South 48.90% 51.10% 49.10% 50.90%
Great Grimsby 28.60% 71.40% 40.50% 59.50% Norfolk South West 33.70% 66.30% 37.90% 62.10%
Great Yarmouth 28.50% 71.50% 36.00% 64.00% Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford 30.70% 69.30% 42.10% 57.90%
Halesowen & Rowley Regis 33.70% 66.30% 40.30% 59.70% Northampton North 39.30% 60.70% 46.40% 53.60%
Haltemprice & Howden 44.50% 55.50% 46.80% 53.20% Northampton South 40.40% 59.60% 47.30% 52.70%
Hampshire North West 45.50% 54.50% 45.20% 54.80% Northamptonshire South 47.30% 52.70% 47.10% 52.90%
Harlow 32.00% 68.00% 39.90% 60.10% Norwich North 42.70% 57.30% 49.90% 50.10%
Hartlepool 30.40% 69.60% 41.40% 58.60% Nottingham North 36.20% 63.80% 44.80% 55.20%
Harwich & Essex North 38.90% 61.10% 42.70% 57.30% Nuneaton 35.20% 64.80% 40.50% 59.50%
Hastings & Rye 43.80% 56.20% 47.80% 52.20% Ogmore 40.20% 59.80% 48.40% 51.60%
Havant 37.50% 62.50% 43.70% 56.30% Old Bexley & Sidcup 36.80% 63.20% 41.90% 58.10%
Hemel Hempstead 44.80% 55.20% 49.40% 50.60% Oldham East & Saddleworth 40.10% 59.90% 46.20% 53.80%
Hemsworth 31.90% 68.10% 41.80% 58.20% Orpington 42.50% 57.50% 44.90% 55.10%
Hereford & Herefordshire South 39.80% 60.20% 44.90% 55.10% Pendle 36.80% 63.20% 44.50% 55.50%
Herefordshire North 41.70% 58.30% 43.10% 56.90% Penistone & Stocksbridge 38.70% 61.30% 43.40% 56.60%
Heywood & Middleton 37.60% 62.40% 42.80% 57.20% Penrith & The Border 44.60% 55.40% 45.50% 54.50%
Hornchurch & Upminster 30.50% 69.50% 37.10% 62.90% Peterborough 38.70% 61.30% 44.50% 55.50%
Houghton & Sunderland South 37.60% 62.40% 46.30% 53.70% Plymouth Moor View 33.60% 66.40% 41.60% 58.40%
Hull East 27.40% 72.60% 40.30% 59.70% Portsmouth North 36.30% 63.70% 43.60% 56.40%
Hull West & Hessle 32.20% 67.80% 45.30% 54.70% Preseli Pembrokeshire 44.20% 55.80% 49.50% 50.50%

page 13 of 15
Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

Seats with a majority to leave the EU 2016-2018 (continued)

Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018 Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave remain leave remain leave
Rayleigh & Wickford 32.10% 67.90% 35.90% 64.10% Tewkesbury 46.20% 53.80% 47.00% 53.00%
Redcar 32.40% 67.60% 41.80% 58.20% Thanet North 35.00% 65.00% 41.60% 58.40%
Redditch 38.60% 61.40% 45.60% 54.40% Thanet South 38.40% 61.60% 42.90% 57.10%
Ribble Valley 41.30% 58.70% 44.90% 55.10% Thirsk & Malton 43.60% 56.40% 44.40% 55.60%
Richmond (Yorks) 45.30% 54.70% 46.50% 53.50% Thurrock 29.70% 70.30% 42.00% 58.00%
Rochester & Strood 36.30% 63.70% 44.70% 55.30% Tiverton & Honiton 42.40% 57.60% 45.00% 55.00%
Rochford & Southend East 39.50% 60.50% 44.10% 55.90% Tonbridge & Malling 47.40% 52.60% 47.20% 52.80%
Romford 30.70% 69.30% 39.70% 60.30% Torbay 37.30% 62.70% 45.20% 54.80%
Rossendale & Darwen 41.40% 58.60% 46.80% 53.20% Torfaen 39.10% 60.90% 48.00% 52.00%
Rother Valley 33.30% 66.70% 40.70% 59.30% Totnes 45.90% 54.10% 47.00% 53.00%
Rotherham 31.70% 68.30% 44.90% 55.10% Tyneside North 40.60% 59.40% 49.50% 50.50%
Rugby 41.60% 58.40% 46.40% 53.60% Wakefield 37.20% 62.80% 45.90% 54.10%
Rutland & Melton 46.00% 54.00% 46.30% 53.70% Walsall North 25.80% 74.20% 37.10% 62.90%
Saffron Walden 49.10% 50.90% 49.40% 50.60% Walsall South 38.40% 61.60% 48.00% 52.00%
Scarborough & Whitby 38.60% 61.40% 40.80% 59.20% Wansbeck 43.80% 56.20% 48.80% 51.20%
Scunthorpe 30.90% 69.10% 41.80% 58.20% Warrington North 41.40% 58.60% 49.60% 50.40%
Sedgefield 41.10% 58.90% 47.70% 52.30% Warwickshire North 32.20% 67.80% 38.10% 61.90%
Selby & Ainsty 42.20% 57.80% 45.10% 54.90% Washington & Sunderland West 38.10% 61.90% 49.20% 50.80%
Sevenoaks 46.10% 53.90% 47.80% 52.20% Waveney 36.80% 63.20% 41.10% 58.90%
Sheffield South East 33.50% 66.50% 42.40% 57.60% Wealden 47.50% 52.50% 46.30% 53.70%
Sherwood 36.20% 63.80% 41.80% 58.20% Wellingborough 37.10% 62.90% 42.20% 57.80%
Shropshire North 40.50% 59.50% 45.00% 55.00% Wells 46.50% 53.50% 49.20% 50.80%
Sittingbourne & Sheppey 34.20% 65.80% 36.90% 63.10% Wentworth & Dearne 31.00% 69.00% 41.50% 58.50%
Skipton & Ripon 47.00% 53.00% 45.50% 54.50% West Bromwich East 32.40% 67.60% 41.90% 58.10%
Sleaford & North Hykeham 38.50% 61.50% 39.30% 60.70% West Bromwich West 30.90% 69.10% 40.30% 59.70%
Solihull 46.70% 53.30% 49.10% 50.90% Weston-Super-Mare 43.30% 56.70% 48.50% 51.50%
Somerton & Frome 49.00% 51.00% 46.10% 53.90% Wigan 37.30% 62.70% 47.80% 52.20%
South Holland & The Deepings 28.80% 71.20% 32.90% 67.10% Wiltshire South West 42.30% 57.70% 47.90% 52.10%
South Ribble 43.10% 56.90% 46.70% 53.30% Witham 39.20% 60.80% 42.90% 57.10%
South Shields 37.90% 62.10% 45.40% 54.60% Wolverhampton North East 32.30% 67.70% 40.90% 59.10%
Spelthorne 39.70% 60.30% 45.20% 54.80% Wolverhampton South East 31.90% 68.10% 43.10% 56.90%
St Austell & Newquay 36.50% 63.50% 41.20% 58.80% Worcestershire Mid 41.10% 58.90% 43.20% 56.80%
Stafford 42.80% 57.20% 43.30% 56.70% Worcestershire West 47.40% 52.60% 47.30% 52.70%
Staffordshire Moorlands 35.40% 64.60% 39.90% 60.10% Workington 39.70% 60.30% 46.40% 53.60%
Staffordshire South 34.80% 65.20% 38.10% 61.90% Worthing West 43.90% 56.10% 46.00% 54.00%
Stevenage 42.90% 57.10% 47.60% 52.40% Wrekin, The 41.80% 58.20% 44.60% 55.40%
Stockton North 33.50% 66.50% 41.50% 58.50% Wrexham 42.70% 57.30% 49.40% 50.60%
Stockton South 42.20% 57.80% 46.50% 53.50% Wyre & Preston North 46.00% 54.00% 48.50% 51.50%
Stoke-on-Trent Central 35.00% 65.00% 43.90% 56.10% Wyre Forest 36.90% 63.10% 41.00% 59.00%
Stoke-on-Trent North 27.90% 72.10% 38.60% 61.40% Yeovil 40.70% 59.30% 44.10% 55.90%
Stoke-on-Trent South 29.20% 70.80% 42.80% 57.20% Yorkshire East 36.70% 63.30% 40.50% 59.50%
Stone 42.00% 58.00% 44.40% 55.60%
Stourbridge 36.30% 63.70% 42.80% 57.20%
Stratford-on-Avon 48.80% 51.20% 47.70% 52.30%
Suffolk Central & Ipswich North
Suffolk Coastal
45.50%
44.20%
54.50%
55.80%
46.90%
45.70%
53.10%
54.30%
Seats with NO majority 2016-18
Suffolk South 45.80% 54.20% 45.60% 54.40% Parliamentary Constituencies 2016 2016 2018 2018
remain leave remain leave
Suffolk West 36.70% 63.30% 40.90% 59.10%
Blaydon 43.70% 56.30% 50.00% 50.00%
Sunderland Central 40.10% 59.90% 48.20% 51.80%
Clwyd West 47.50% 52.50% 50.00% 50.00%
Surrey East 45.80% 54.20% 48.80% 51.20%
Jarrow 38.40% 61.60% 50.00% 50.00%
Sutton Coldfield 48.30% 51.70% 48.50% 51.50%
Swindon North 42.60% 57.40% 48.00% 52.00%
Tamworth 34.00% 66.00% 40.40% 59.60%
n To see our interactive online map of the table
Taunton Deane 47.10% 52.90% 48.90% 51.10%
above go to www.bestforbritain.org/map or donate.
Telford 32.90% 67.10% 40.60% 59.40% hopenothate.org.uk/britain-brexit-changing-minds

page 14 of 15
Brexit Shift
14 August 2018

METHODOLOGY
MRP is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small
geographic areas or sub-groups using national opinion surveys.
We have arrived at the new constituency estimates for remain/leave voters using a statistical
method called Multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP), which has been undertaken
for HOPE not hate and Best for Britain by Focaldata.
MRP is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small geographic areas or sub-
groups using national opinion surveys. It originated in America, Columbia University to be precise,
and was used by academics to estimate state-level opinion cheaply, given the expense of doing
polls throughout the country.
MRP has two main elements. The first is to use a survey to build a multi-level regression model
that predicts opinion (or any quantity of interest) from certain variables, normally demographics.
The second is to weight (post-stratify) your results by the relevant population frequency, to get
population level (or constituency level) estimates.
At the end of this process you get more accurate, more granular (thus more actionable)
estimates of public opinion than traditional polling. There are however significant technical
challenges to implementing it effectively. These include large data requirements, dedicated
cloud computing resources, and an understanding of Bayesian statistics. It is far from a simple
endeavour.
Among the key features are:
n Estimates of opinion at local geographic levels, e.g. constituencies
n Estimates of opinion of precise demographic groups, e.g. young, women who are Asian, own
their own house and drive a bicycle to work
n More accurate estimates of opinion generally because MRP doesn’t exacerbate problems of
unrepresentative samples
n Use of prior knowledge and old polls to improve accuracy and potentially cut sample size
n Quicker decisions as new data automatically flows through models to campaigners
Between 28 June and 6 July and 26 and 31 July, YouGov polled 15,340 people on behalf of HOPE
not hate and Best for Britain with a range of questions about Brexit and other political and
cultural issues and over the next few weeks we will be releasing more data.
However, the key value in MRP is that it will help us be far more effective in our local
campaigning. MRP helps us better understand who we need to speak to on any given issue, how
we should speak to them and on what issues.
The data will guide our door-to-door campaigning, but also but direct our online campaigning as
we will be able to customise our messages to specific audiences far more effectively.

page 15 of 15