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With a consistently growing middle class and increasing disposable income, the tourism and
hospitality sector is witnessing a healthy growth and accounts for 7.5 per cent of the country's
GDP. According to a report by KPMG, the hospitality sector in India is expected to grow at 16.1
per cent CAGR to reach Rs 2,796.9 thousand crore in 2022.The hospitality sector encompasses
a wide variety of activities within the services sector and is a major job provider both direct and
indirectly. The sector attracts the most FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) inflow and is the most
important net foreign exchange earners for the country. It also contributes significantly to
indirect tax revenue at the state and central level which includes revenues from VAT, Service
Tax, and Luxury Tax etc.
The growth in the hospitality sector and its contributions to the GDP will continue to be
substantially higher than other sectors of the economy on the back of huge tourism potential in
the country. However, the hospitality sector is one of the most heavily taxed industries and is
saddled with multiple layers of tax such as VAT, service tax, luxury tax, etc. ranging from 20 per
cent - 30 per cent. This multiple taxations adds to operational costs and reduces profitability.
While the operationalization of the much awaited GST regime is expected to rationalise the
taxation structure, bring a positive outcome with streamlined taxes, enhance ease of doing
business and lower cost for the consumers, there is an urgent need for lowering the tax levied,
to incentivize and attract more investments to the sector.
Infrastructure development is the backbone and key to the growth of the hospitality sector.
Taxes on real estate development for the hospitality sector must be lowered to boost
investments as there is an acute shortage of good quality accommodation in the country.
Secondly, the industry has been clamouring for industry status for over two decades. Providing
industry status to the hospitality sector will go a long way in attracting investment and
development of the sector. With India projected to be the fastest-growing nation in the wellness
tourism sector in the next five years, at over 20 per cent gains annually through 2017 (SRI
International), infrastructure development becomes critical in order to support this growth.
The government must also look at incentivizing investment in the development of luxury and
ultra-luxury projects which will provide impetus to the hospitality and travel sector in India. The
government should also provide service tax exemption for new developments and a longer tax
holiday for new hotels and resorts that will help in attracting investments into the industry. Also,
the tax rate for the sector needs to be lowered from the proposed 18% tax slab under
consideration for the new GST regime.
The hospitality industry relies on a host of enabling the ecosystem to function and has a
reciprocal relationship with several other sectors like transportation, entertainment, aviation etc.
Strengthening these related sectors will lead to the growth and development of the hospitality
sector. Therefore, single window clearance for real estate and hospitality projects and providing
infrastructure status to the hospitality industry are much-needed steps for the growth of the
industry.
The hospitality sector has the potential to be the main driving force behind the growth of the
economy. It, however, will be possible only with the right amount of support and incentives from
the government in all categories of hotels and not only limited to the luxury and ultra-luxury
segment. I believe that the government must provide its full support in incentivizing the sector
and the overall taxation on the hospitality sector should be reduced to stimulate its growth and
make India competitive against other internationally renowned hospitality chains
India is a large market for travel and tourism. It offers a diverse portfolio of niche tourism
products - cruises, adventure, medical, wellness, sports, MICE, eco-tourism, film, rural and
religious tourism. India has been recognised as a destination for spiritual tourism for domestic
and international tourists.
Total contribution by travel and tourism sector to India’s GDP is expected to increase from US$
136.3 billion in 2015 to US$ 275.2 billion in 2025. India ranked third among 184 countries in
terms of travel & tourism’s total contribution to GDP in 2016. Travel and tourism is the third
largest foreign exchange earner for India. A sum of US$ 27.693 billion was earned under foreign
exchange through tourism during calendar year 2017. The employment in the sector is expected
to rise to 46.42 million by 2026. During calendar year 2017, 10.177 million foreign tourists have
arrived in India. The Government of India has set a target of 20 million foreign tourist arrivals
(FTAs) by 2020 and double the foreign exchange earnings as well.
The launch of several branding and marketing initiatives by the Government of India such as
‘Incredible India!’ and ‘Athiti Devo Bhava’ has provided a focused impetus to growth. The Indian
government has also released a fresh category of visa - the medical visa or M visa, to
encourage medical tourism in the country. Incredible India 2.0 campaign was launched in
September 2017.
The Government has also been making serious efforts to boost investments in tourism sector. In
the hotel and tourism sector, 100 per cent FDI is allowed through the automatic route. A five-
year tax holiday has been offered for 2, 3 and 4 star category hotels located around UNESCO
World Heritage sites (except Delhi and Mumbai). Total FDI received by Indian hotel & tourism
sector was US$ 10.6 billion between April 2000 and September 2017.
Growth Of Hospitality Industry In India
The hotel industry in India is going through an interesting phase. One of the major reasons for the
increase in demand for hotel rooms in the country is the boom in the overall economy and high
growth in sectors like information technology, telecom, retail and real estate. Rising stock market
and new business opportunities are also attracting hordes of foreign investors and international
corporate travellers to look for business opportunities in the country.
The hotel industry in India is going through an interesting phase. The industry has a capacity of
110,000 rooms. According to the tourism ministry, 4.4 million tourists visited India last year and at
the current rate, the demand will soar to 10 million by 2010 to accommodate 350 million domestic
travellers. The hotels of India have a shortage of 150,000 rooms fuelling hotel room rates across
India. With tremendous pull of opportunity, India has become a destination for hotel chains looking
for growth.
Due to such a huge potential available in this segment, several global hotel chains like the Hilton,
Accor, Marriott International, Berggruen Hotels, Cabana Hotels, Premier Travel Inn (PTI),
InterContinental Hotels group and Hampshire among others have all announced major investment
plans for the country. The Government's move to declare hotel and tourism industry as a high priority
sector with a provision for 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) has also provided a further
impetus in attracting investments in to this industry.
It is estimated that the hospitality sector is likely to see US$ 11.41 billion rise in the next two years,
with around 40 international hotel brands making their presence known in the country by 2011.
Simultaneously, international hotel asset management companies are also likely to enter India.
Already, US-based HVS International has firmed up plans to enter India, and industry players
believe others like Ashford Hospitality Trust and IFA Hotels & Resorts among others are likely to
follow suit
ONLINE FOOD PORTALS
In my report i would be talking about some of the well known food portals you would be
knowing:-
1. Foodpanda
Zomato is a restaurant search and discovery service founded in 2008 by Deepinder Goyal
and Pankaj Bhardwaj. It currently operates in 23 countries, including India, Australia and
the United States. It features restaurant information such as scanned menus and photos
sourced by local street teams, as well as user reviews and ratings. The company also
provides cashless payment, online ordering, white-label apps, table reservation, and
point-of-sale systems.
3. Swiggy
Swiggy is a Food ordering and Delivery Company based out of Bengaluru, India. Swiggy
was inspired by the thought of providing a complete food ordering and delivery solution
from the best neighbourhood restaurants to the urban foodie. A single window for
ordering from a wide range of restaurants, they have their own exclusive fleet of delivery
personnel to pick up orders from restaurants and deliver it to customers. Having their
own fleet gives them the flexibility to offer customers a no minimum order policy on any
restaurant and accept online payments for all partner restaurants that we work with.
4. TastyKhana
TastyKhana was founded by Shachin Bharadwaj and Sheldon D’souza in 2007. Available
on Android and iOS platforms, it enables users to get instant access to its database of
over 7,000 restaurants across India. It provides a few options to let users create profiles,
save restaurant locations and their previous orders. You can choose to pay through net
banking, cash on delivery or credit/debit card. Foodpanda acquired this food delivery
service in 2014.
5. JustEat
JustEat is another similar kind of service which lets you browse nearby restaurants and
then order food online. You also get discounts for online payment or via various coupon
codes. It operates in most of the big cities in India.
6. Domino’s
Domino’s pizza delivery app is mostly popular with pizza lovers across India. It works on
Android, Windows Smartphones and iOS. The app provides users with the easiest way to
order food without making a call. The unique feature of Domino’s Pizza delivery app is
that it allows users to apply coupons to their orders and also choose the mode of
payment as per their convenience.
7. Faaso’s
Kallol Banerjee and Jaydeep Barman are the founders of this food delivery app that hit
the market in 2011. Faaso’s food delivery app is compatible with Windows Phones,
Android and iPhones. It is mostly used in Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Pune. The
app is fairly simple to use and allows users to customize their orders in multiple ways.
8. FoodMingo
9. Pizza Hut
Pizza hut app discovers Pizza hut restaurant near you. It offer all your favorite deals,
pastas, pizzas, drinks and dessert. Pizza hut app offers fast access and local deals. An
amazing feature is that you can place order 7 days in advanced.
10. Holachef
Holachef is a food delivery platform which serves food made by renowned chefs to your
doorstep. Holachef has a changing menu every day with delicious food made fresh by
chefs working in the hospitality industry for years.
THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY
The latter includes chefs, cooks, managers, and dishwashers. Fast food restaurantslimit their
staff to food preparation people, managers, and cashiers. ... Equipment suppliers are an
example of a segment of the food service industry that does not deal directly with food.
Restaurant companies are essentially retailers of prepared foods, and their operating
performance is influenced by many of the same factors that affect traditional retail stores. For
the most part, restaurants have business models that are relatively easy to understand, and the
array on the Value Line page is the same as that of a standard industrial company.
Nonetheless, there are a number of unique factors to consider when making investment
decisions regarding this large and segmented industry.
Competition between restaurants is intense, since dining options abound. And, while there are
certainly dominant players in this industry (especially among fast-food purveyors), no one
company has the market cornered. Indeed, virtually every restaurant location must compete not
only against other publicly traded chains, but also a wide array of small, local establishments.
Competitors include everything from delis and pizzerias to fine-dining restaurants. And, of
course, it is relatively easy to forgo prepared foods, altogether, in favor of home cooking, which
is usually a less expensive option. Thus, restaurant meals are discretionary purchases, and the
industry tends to be highly cyclical.
Sales
Top-line growth is typically generated in two ways, opening locations and boosting same-store
sales. Opening new doors is a straightforward strategy, and usually the main driver of revenue
when a company is in its early stages. As a chain grows in size, however, it becomes
increasingly difficult to capture benefits. The best, most profitable locations are established first,
and then managers must be careful not to place restaurants too close together, lest they
cannibalize each other's sales.
Comparable-store sales, or "comps", is a valuable metric to examine when analyzing
restaurants. Comps are particularly important once a company reaches maturity, since they
become the primary driver of growth. Product innovations and menu-price increases are two of
the most common ways to increase same-store sales. Remodeling existing locations is another
way to boost guest traffic. Furthermore, promotions and limited-time offers are widely used to
attract diners. Investors should also pay attention to trends in the dollar value of the average
guest check, as this can shed additional light on what exactly is driving sales.
Margins
Management's execution and ability to deliver a menu that appeals to a wide range of palates
go a long way toward determining a restaurant's margins. Most companies in this industry have
operating margins in the mid- to upper teens, and net profit margins in the mid- to high-single
digits. Food costs are obviously an important line item and, at times, can fluctuate wildly. Prices
for staples, such as corn, chicken, beef and dairy, can move greatly, depending on factors like
crop yields, feed costs and other external demand factors.
Labor is another major cost for service-oriented restaurants. Typically, workers earn modest
salaries, often at or just slightly above government-mandated minimum wages. Employees that
fall into this category are usually fast-food workers, dishwashers and bus boys. Servers, who
make the lion's share of their money through tips, are usually paid even less. Consequently,
changes to federal or state minimum-wage laws can have a noticeable impact on a restaurant's
costs and margins.
Investment Considerations
Restaurant stocks have a number of attractive attributes. Their business
models are easy to understand, as are the factors that effect their
performance. Most are cyclical, so broad economic conditions often play an
outsized roll in the group's overall performance. However, fast-food retailers
can sometimes provide more shelter in a down economy. Conservative
investors might find the stocks of mature operators appealing as growth-and-
income holdings. Conversely, fledgling companies, with new or unique
formats, use most of their cash flow for expansion, and their stocks may
offer attractive 3- to 5-year appreciation potential to the more ventures
Evergreen industry – The restaurant industry is an evergreen industry. Sure, there may be
recessions and other downturns which might affect the industry. But overall, this industry is
going to stick around at all times and is only going to grow with rising disposable income.
Fantastic design of the app – Zomato has regularly won awards for its app design and for its
user-friendliness. The App design is fantastic and it helps you discover restaurants nearby as well
as in an area you are going to visit.
Number of users – Zomato has a huge number of users using their app. At the same time, the
site also has 90 million visitors a month approximately. With so many users following the app
and site, there are more reviews and hence more chances to find better restaurants.
Focused approach – The brand has a very focused approach and has always tried to bring the
most of out of its unique offering. It is well connected with restaurants and regularly takes
feedback from customers as well as restaurants. This focused approach has also helped the brand
image and reputation of the firm.
Security issues for the app – A major issue for Zomato in the past has been some security
issues due to which the app was hacked and at least 17 million users data was copied. Such
security issues are a nightmare for internet companies.
Still a lot of expansion required – Considering that the app has established in 24 countries,
there is good expansion. But at the same time, the app has been started 7 years back and with
the amount of funding available for Zomato, the expansion can be much faster. It is allowing
other services to establish themselves in this niche before it reaches their country.
Word of mouth and Facebook check-ins – Besides such apps, in many places word of mouth
still trumps apps and at the same time, Facebook check-ins are a strong competitor
wherein people might not need Zomato. Thus, it is an app for early adopters but definitely not
for laggards.
Further expansion – The number 1 opportunity for Zomato is to expand to more countries and
establish its base faster. Service industry has a major problem that services can be copied very
fast and very easily. As a result, it is critical for Zomato to establish and expand itself faster.
More acquisitions – There are and were many small players in this space. Zomato can acquire
several of its competitors and at the same time, it has to keep an eye on the tech industry and
acquire any tech innovation it can get its hands on to keep on rising.
Cloud restaurants – Zomato is coming up with the concept of Cloud restaurants wherein
restaurants will not have to get a physical space to actually sell their food products. Instead,
they can sell from Zomato.
Creating a community – Zomato does have a huge following but the users do not interact with
each other. Creating a forum and a community out of the users already following Zomato can be
a huge benefit for the brand.
Adoption of the internet and Smartphones – There is a huge increase in the adoption of
Internet across developing and underdeveloped countries as well. Similarly, adoption of
smartphone has also increased. Thus more and more orders and research about restaurants
can happen online instead of through physical visits.
Google’s schema module – One of the major threats Zomato faces right now is the Schema
module of Google wherein google locations itself is getting in restaurant recommendations.
Even google homepage shows the google maps page where you can search for restaurants
within your locality. Google being such a big brand, zomato faces huge competition from them.
Market followers and challengers – In the service industry, it is very easy to replicate the
success of another service product or offering. Similarly, marketing followers and challengers
can slowly take away the market share of Zomato
TripAdvisor SWOT Analysis
1. Entry barriers are less and hence other players can easily enter
2. Continuous innovation is needed to engage users; else users get bored of thi
Threats 3. Intense competition
Strengths Weaknesses
Increasing number of people using Facebook through 1. Increasing number of mobile internet use
mobile devices 2. Users using ad-block extensions
Expansion to China 3. Slow growth rate of online advertising
Diversify sources of revenue 4. Identity thefts
Open Facebook marketplace 5. Weak business model
SWOT Analysis
According to the Wall Street Journal, social norms influence consumption behavior and even
private interests, including one’s taste in music. This is what makes the concept of social proof a
powerful one.
Science describes social proof as a psychological phenomenon in which people follow the actions of
others in an effort to reflect what is considered correct behavior for any given situation -- including
online experiences. Simply put, social proof influences people's decisions on how they should
behave.
We've traditionally turned to a variety of useful sources as social proof. These include credible
experts, thought leaders, celebrities, friends and the wisdom of the crowd. But today's diners rarely
go to a restaurant without first visiting Yelp, and shoppers seldom make a meaningful purchase
without first reading what verified buyers have to say. Online reviews have significant effects on
purchasing behaviors. Predictably, they've emerged as one of the most potent forms of social proof.
When customers read reviews on sites such as Yelp, Google, Amazon or TripAdvisor, they depend
on star ratings to determine the quality of a product or service. They read others' comments and
ask increasingly specific questions.
“Will this bank location help solve my problem the way it solved others’ problems?”
“Is the food as good as advertised? What do previous diners really think?”
“How long will I have to wait before I see the doctor? How long did others have to wait?”
“Based on others’ experiences, what potential issues or problems might I have to face when
I decide to buy this product?”
People take positive reviews and high ratings as social proof a product or service is worth the
purchase. They reason, “This has great reviews, so I’m buying it.”
According to a study published in Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, the average rating for a hotel with
11 to 20 reviews is 3.5 out of 5 stars, with “terrible” reviews (a rating of 1 star) at close to 12
percent. Interesting, as a hotel sees 101 reviews or more, its average star rating increases to 3.9. The
feedback pattern, therefore, favors quantity. The more your business is reviewed, the likelier you
are to receive higher ratings.
Apart from providing social proof for customers looking to make a purchase decision, reviews also
provide social proof in other ways. These online testimonials shape how people perceive brands.
And reviews also influence what people think they should say, when it's time to add their own voice
to the conversation.
A customer’s opinion about a Yelp-listed restaurant with 100 reviews and an average rating of 4.5
stars is less likely to go against the grain and offer a counterpoint to all the positive feedback. The
consumer thinks, “This has great reviews, so I’m going to say the same about it.”
To stay competitive, you must be able to effectively manage your online reputation. Track and
monitor your reviews. Know when and where your customers are talking about your brand.
Respond to customer feedback, both positive and negative. Dive deeper into the comments to look
for useful insights and information that will help you improve the customer experience.
CONCLUSION
Initially, blogging involved a personal web log, in which a person would journal about their day.
From "web log" came the term "blog."
Like most new innovations on the Internet, many entrepreneurs saw a marketing potential in
having a blog, and blogging took off from there. Not only can a blog be used for marketing, but
also, a blog can be a home business in and of itself.
Blog Versus Website
Many people are still confused over what constitutes a blog over a website. Part of the problem
is that many businesses use both, integrating them into a single web presence. But there are
two features of a blog that set it apart from a traditional website.
1. Blogs are updated frequently. Whether it's a mommy blog in which a woman shares
adventures in parenting, a food blog sharing new recipes, or a business providing
updates to its services, blogs have new content added several times a week.
2. Blogs allow for reader engagement. Blogs are often included in social media because of
the ability for readers to comment and have a discussion with the blogger and others
who read the blog makes it social.
1. Blogging provides an easy way to keep your customers and clients up-to-date on what's
going on, let them know about new deals, and provide tips. The more a customer comes
to your blog, the more likely they are to spend money.
2. A blog allows you to build trust and rapport with your prospects. Not only can you show
off what you know, building your expertise and credibility, but because people can post
comments and interact with you, they can get to know you, and hopefully, will trust you
enough to buy from you.
1. Blogs can make money. Along with your product or service, blogs can generate income
from other options, such as advertising and affiliate products.
Blogging is popular because it works as a marketing tool and makes money. But blogging isn't
all rainbows and unicorns in the world of online income. Before starting a blog as a means to
make money or to promote your existing business, you should consider these potential
downsides:
1. Blogging requires a great deal of time. For blogs to be effective at SEO and engaging
readers, it needs to be updated regularly. The Internet is littered with abandoned blogs
that haven't been updated in months or even years. The success of blogging comes
from having people return, and they only return when there's new stuff to read. That
means generating content at least several times a week, which takes time.
2. You need ideas to write about. To keep the content coming, you have to have ideas to
write about. The good news is that you don't have to write it all. You can have guest
writers or hire freelancers. Another option is to curate content from others or do an
alternative post, such as using video.
3. The payoff isn't immediate. One of the biggest frustrations with blogging is that it's time-
consuming with little payoff in the beginning. It takes time to build up a readership and
momentum.
The good news is that starting a blog or adding a blog to your existing site is relativity easy and
affordable. There are free blog options such as WordPress.com and Blogger, but to retain
control and professional image, consider investing in a domain name and hosting, and installing
WordPress or other content management system on your host. Most webhosts offer this.
Once your blog is up and running, you need keep it active with new content to grow your
business. While your blog can compliment an existing business, it's also a great way to add
additional income. You can promote other companies' products and services in affiliate
marketing. You can offer advertising or feed ad networks on to your blog. If you have a service
business you're promoting with your blog, you can create your own information products to
compliment it.
Or, if you have your own product, you can offer a service.
Finally, like all other business ideas, your success comes from marketing, and letting your target
market know about your blog. Great ways to reach your market are through social media, email
list, and reaching out to other bloggers, podcasters, and media outlets for publicity.
Speech recognition
Learning
Planning
Problem solving
Artificial intelligence is a branch of computer science that aims to create intelligent machines. It
has become an essential part of the technology industry.
Research associated with artificial intelligence is highly technical and specialized. The core
problems of artificial intelligence include programming computers for certain traits such as:
Knowledge
Reasoning
Problem solving
Perception
Learning
Planning
Ability to manipulate and move objects
Knowledge engineering is a core part of AI research. Machines can often act and react like
humans only if they have abundant information relating to the world. Artificial intelligence must
have access to objects, categories, properties and relations between all of them to implement
knowledge engineering. Initiating common sense, reasoning and problem-solving power in
machines is a difficult and tedious approach.
Machine learning is another core part of AI. Learning without any kind of supervision requires an
ability to identify patterns in streams of inputs, whereas learning with adequate supervision
involves classification and numerical regressions. Classification determines the category an
object belongs to and regression deals with obtaining a set of numerical input or output
examples, thereby discovering functions enabling the generation of suitable outputs from
respective inputs. Mathematical analysis of machine learning algorithms and their performance
is a well-defined branch of theoretical computer science often referred to as computational
learning theory.
Machine perception deals with the capability to use sensory inputs to deduce the different
aspects of the world, while computer vision is the power to analyze visual inputs with a few sub-
problems such as facial, object and gesture recognition.
Robotics is also a major field related to AI. Robots require intelligence to handle tasks such as
object manipulation and navigation, along with sub-problems of localization, motion planning
and mapping.
There are some who question whether strong AI will ever be achieved, and others
who insist that the creation of superintelligent AI is guaranteed to be beneficial. At
FLI we recognize both of these possibilities, but also recognize the potential for an
artificial intelligence system to intentionally or unintentionally cause great harm.
We believe research today will help us better prepare for and prevent such
potentially negative consequences in the future, thus enjoying the benefits of AI
while avoiding pitfalls.
Because AI has the potential to become more intelligent than any human, we have
no surefire way of predicting how it will behave. We can’t use past technological
developments as much of a basis because we’ve never created anything that has
the ability to, wittingly or unwittingly, outsmart us. The best example of what we
could face may be our own evolution. People now control the planet, not because
we’re the strongest, fastest or biggest, but because we’re the smartest. If we’re no
longer the smartest, are we assured to remain in control?
FLI’s position is that our civilization will flourish as long as we win the race between
the growing power of technology and the wisdom with which we manage it. In the
case of AI technology, FLI’s position is that the best way to win that race is not to
impede the former, but to accelerate the latter, by supporting AI safety research.
TIMELINE MYTHS
The first myth regards the timeline: how long will it take until machines greatly
supersede human-level intelligence? A common misconception is that we know the
answer with great certainty.
One popular myth is that we know we’ll get superhuman AI this century. In fact,
history is full of technological over-hyping. Where are those fusion power plants and
flying cars we were promised we’d have by now? AI has also been repeatedly over-
hyped in the past, even by some of the founders of the field. For example, John
McCarthy (who coined the term “artificial intelligence”), Marvin Minsky, Nathaniel
Rochester and Claude Shannon wrote this overly optimistic forecast about what
could be accomplished during two months with stone-age computers: “We propose
that a 2 month, 10 man study of artificial intelligence be carried out during the
summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College […] An attempt will be made to find how to
make machines use language, form abstractions and concepts, solve kinds of
problems now reserved for humans, and improve themselves. We think that a
significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems if a carefully
selected group of scientists work on it together for a summer.”
There have been a number of surveys asking AI researchers how many years from
now they think we’ll have human-level AI with at least 50% probability. All these
surveys have the same conclusion: the world’s leading experts disagree, so we
simply don’t know. For example, in such a poll of the AI researchers at the 2015
Puerto Rico AI conference, the average (median) answer was by year 2045, but
some researchers guessed hundreds of years or more.
There’s also a related myth that people who worry about AI think it’s only a few
years away. In fact, most people on record worrying about superhuman AI guess it’s
still at least decades away. But they argue that as long as we’re not 100% sure that
it won’t happen this century, it’s smart to start safety research now to prepare for
the eventuality. Many of the safety problems associated with human-level AI are so
hard that they may take decades to solve. So it’s prudent to start researching them
now rather than the night before some programmers drinking Red Bull decide to
switch one on.
CONTROVERSY MYTHS
Another common misconception is that the only people harboring concerns about AI
and advocating AI safety research are luddites who don’t know much about AI.
When Stuart Russell, author of the standard AI textbook, mentioned this during his
Puerto Rico talk, the audience laughed loudly. A related misconception is that
supporting AI safety research is hugely controversial. In fact, to support a modest
investment in AI safety research, people don’t need to be convinced that risks are
high, merely non-negligible — just as a modest investment in home insurance is
justified by a non-negligible probability of the home burning down.
It may be that media have made the AI safety debate seem more controversial than
it really is. After all, fear sells, and articles using out-of-context quotes to proclaim
imminent doom can generate more clicks than nuanced and balanced ones. As a
result, two people who only know about each other’s positions from media quotes
are likely to think they disagree more than they really do. For example, a techno-
skeptic who only read about Bill Gates’s position in a British tabloid may mistakenly
think Gates believes superintelligence to be imminent. Similarly, someone in the
beneficial-AI movement who knows nothing about Andrew Ng’s position except his
quote about overpopulation on Mars may mistakenly think he doesn’t care about AI
safety, whereas in fact, he does. The crux is simply that because Ng’s timeline
estimates are longer, he naturally tends to prioritize short-term AI challenges over
long-term ones.
The fear of machines turning evil is another red herring. The real worry isn’t
malevolence, but competence. A superintelligent AI is by definition very good at
attaining its goals, whatever they may be, so we need to ensure that its goals are
aligned with ours. Humans don’t generally hate ants, but we’re more intelligent
than they are – so if we want to build a hydroelectric dam and there’s an anthill
there, too bad for the ants. The beneficial-AI movement wants to avoid placing
humanity in the position of those ants.
The consciousness misconception is related to the myth that machines can’t have
goals. Machines can obviously have goals in the narrow sense of exhibiting goal-
oriented behavior: the behavior of a heat-seeking missile is most economically
explained as a goal to hit a target. If you feel threatened by a machine whose goals
are misaligned with yours, then it is precisely its goals in this narrow sense that
troubles you, not whether the machine is conscious and experiences a sense of
purpose. If that heat-seeking missile were chasing you, you probably wouldn’t
exclaim: “I’m not worried, because machines can’t have goals!”
I sympathize with Rodney Brooks and other robotics pioneers who feel unfairly
demonized by scaremongering tabloids, because some journalists seem obsessively
fixated on robots and adorn many of their articles with evil-looking metal monsters
with red shiny eyes. In fact, the main concern of the beneficial-AI movement isn’t
with robots but with intelligence itself: specifically, intelligence whose goals are
misaligned with ours. To cause us trouble, such misaligned superhuman intelligence
needs no robotic body, merely an internet connection – this may enable
outsmarting financial markets, out-inventing human researchers, out-manipulating
human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand. Even if
building robots were physically impossible, a super-intelligent and super-wealthy AI
could easily pay or manipulate many humans to unwittingly do its bidding.
The robot misconception is related to the myth that machines can’t control humans.
Intelligence enables control: humans control tigers not because we are stronger, but
because we are smarter. This means that if we cede our position as smartest on our
planet, it’s possible that we might also cede control.