FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF KINDERGARTEN ENROLLEES

FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AND FORMULATING STRATEGIES

TO PREVENT MATERIAL NUMBER OF STUDENTS FROM
TRANSFERRING TO OTHER INSTITUTION
OF SAINT PEDRO POVEDA COLLEGE

A Final Paper Presented to

Faculty, Graduate School of Business
University of Southeastern Philippines
Iñigo St., Obrero, Davao City

In partial fulfillment of the requirements

for the course BA 2003 Quantitative Methods for Business

Presented by:

Tricia Marie Tumanda

Milarie Tandan Babia
Abegail Nacional
Lincoln Romero
Ericca Novicio
Kim Dading
Celeste Orquillas

December 21, 2019

1
 ABSTRACT

Institucion Teresiana de Educacion y Cultura, Inc. (Saint Pedro Poveda College) takes
pride in providing a Personalized Education Program (PEP) for more than 60 years of
operation in Metro Manila, Philippines. IsTEC, Inc. upholds its vision to be recognized
for their excellence in Holistic education anchored on Povedian Pedagogy which
means the total development of persons through academic instruction, spiritual, and
social formation. The institution is acknowledged mainly for its educational
participation in human transformation and social advancement over the years. It
responded to the challenge of opening a branch in the southern part of the country to
share the said program in a coeducational (COED) and inclusive school. It is now in
its 5th year of implementation in Davao City.

The school started with only 6 number of enrollees in kindergarten. The numbers have
positively increased to 15% on its 3rd year and 47% on its current year. The increased
in numbers is mainly due to the school’s method and approach in teaching and the
parents also experience a convenient way of sending their children to school. On the
downside, the school has also a number of transferees which resulted to put forth
effort in securing additional enrollees. The school has to offer pre-kindergarten
program as a resource. In the financial position, the company is showing a losing
result. However, we can consider this as normal on the first few years of operation

The forecast of the enrollee’s student’s number, annually, represents a very important
activity, because on this number is based the foundation of the budget incomes and
expenditure of the institution. The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of
students who are admitted each year which is relevant for the operational plans and
strategies of the institution. On the other hand, creates strategies preventing the
material number of students from transferring to other institution. This study uses
Exponential Smoothening with trend projection, probabilities and decision tree
analysis.

2
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENT ....................................................................................................................... 3

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................... 4
LIST OF FIGURE ............................................................................................................................... 5
1. Problem formulation ................................................................................................................... 6
1.1. Purpose of research .................................................................................................................... 6
1.2. Model description ........................................................................................................................ 6
1.3. Assumptions .............................................................................................................................. 7

2. Procedure /Methods …………………………………………………………………………………….. 8

2.1 Solution approaches/ Statistical Method …………………………………………………………….. 8
2.2 A systematic problem solving flowchart ……………………………………………………………... 9
2.3 Technical and programming difficulties …………………………………………………………… 10-11
3. Analysis of Results …………………………………………………………………………………….. 12
3.1 Forecasting No. of Enrollees using Exponential Smoothening ……………………………………12-14
3.2 Probabilities ……………………………………………………………………………………………... 14
3.3 Decision Tree Analysis ………………………………………………………………………………… 15

4. Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 17
4.1 Specific(applications) …………………………………………………………………………………... 17
4.2 General (principles) ………………………………………………………………………………….. 17
4.3 Summary of Management …………………………………………………………………………….. 18

5. Appendixes …………………………………………………………………………………………… 19-21

3
LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 Actual number of enrollees for the early childhood education …………. 12

Table 3.2 Number of Forecasted Enrollees …………………………………………… 12

Table 3.3. Probability …………………………………………………………………… 14

4
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Systematic Problem-Solving Flowchart …………………………………. 9

Figure 3.1– Graph of School Year 2020 up to 2025………………………………… 13
Figure 3.2 Decision Tree Analysis ……………………………………………………. 15

5
I. PURPOSE OF RESEARCH

The institution is challenged to achieve the desired number of enrollees per year the
best way possible. The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of students
annually admitted determining the financial capability and competence of the company
to carry out its operational plans and to create strategies to prevent the material
number of students from transferring to other institution. Forecasting is necessary in
the assessment of the institution’s competitiveness in the educational era. The
forecasts will be a rational estimation of the number of students admitted each year
which will help in coping up with the trend outlined from the recent years. These
forecasts are essential in the planning stage especially when there is a clear tendency
of reduction of the number of students.

II. MODEL DESCRIPTION

The study is based on the number of enrolled students of Kindergarten of Institucion

Teresiana de Educacion y Cultura, Inc. (Saint Pedro Poveda College) in Davao City.
The data from its five-year operation will be gathered, analyzed and forecasted. It is
interesting to focus on this since it is the mandatory and compulsory Kindergarten
education (Republic Act No. 10157). Quite a number of Kindergarten students do not
stay on the same school and keep on transferring to other schools. We find it crucial
for an institution to maintain a good number of students because it affects its
operations, financial stability, and reputation.

III. FACTS ABOUT INSTITUCION TERECIANA DE EDUCACION Y CULTURA, INC

(SAINT PEDRO POVEDA COLLEGE)

The institution’s Personalized Education Program (PEP) is based on the pedagogical

principles of Saint Pedro Poveda. It is an approach that motivates the learner to be
involved in the learning process while the teacher acts as facilitator of the activities.
The student moves according to one’s pace, rhythm and ability to accomplish the
tasks, considering his limitations and potentials. The program focuses on individuality
and personal characteristic, developing the student as a social and integrated person.

The PEP in a coed and inclusive school is offered first time in Davao City which is
different from what the institution has been practicing for more than 60 years. The
Povedan pedagogy was first offered in Metro Manila for an exclusively for girls. Now,
it has ventured in new kind of clientele which is for girls and boys.

6
IV. ASSUMPTIONS

Class Size 25 students

Number of Classrooms 2 classrooms
Classes per room 2 per day
Class duration 3 hours per class
Social Class Middle Class
Location Km. 11, Talomo, Davao City, Davao del Sur
and students who live nearby

It is assumed that the school will be able to determine the outcomes which will serve
as a basis for operational plans and strategies thru achieving a proper forecast.

7
2. METHODOLOGY

For this study, we will focus on the following:

a. Forecasting on the number of Kindergarten enrollees for 5 years and show

the trends each year on the percentage of students who will:

• still enroll in ITEC, Inc. (SPPC) the following year in Grade 1

• transfer to other school for the following year

b. Discuss possible points that will help the school increase its enrollees in

Kindergarten and minimize the number of transferees.

1. Solution Approaches

For the purpose of this study, data on the number of Kindergarten students

for the past 5 school years will be collected as basis for Exponential Smoothing.

Furthermore, per school year will be analyze using Probabilities and Decision Tree

Analysis to give a clear picture on the percentage of students that will stay in the

same school or transfer to other school for the next year level.

Secondly, we will highlight points from parent’s feedbacks on the best

practices and experiences that will help the school increase its enrollees in

Kindergarten and minimize the number of transferees in Grade 1.

8
2. Systematic Problem-Solving Flowchart

Figure 2.1

9
3. Systematic Problem-Solving Description

Step 1. We used the Forecasting Exponential Smoothing with Trend

Projections Method to project demand of Kindergarten students for 5 years of

ITEC, Inc. (SPPC).

Step 2. Since, inviting students to enroll in an institution is very competitive

and challenging for a neophyte school like ITEC, Inc. (SPPC), number of

enrollees vary each year. It is then a problem that we are considering in this

study on how to attract clients to increase enrollment in this educational

institution.

Step 3. Here are some constraints

3.a. Technical/Programming Difficulties

For this study, the data that is considered were from S.Y. 2015-2016 up

to 2019-2020 enrollment. Normally enrollment projection is a

serious concern that needs forecasting. It is crucial to forecast the

number of enrollments for the succeeding years in order to

determine the following factors:

• If the number of students meet the desired minimum or

maximum target to cover operational expenses, just break-even

or gain an income.

• Projection of the number of teachers and teacher aides needed

• Make use of classrooms and facilities conducive for learning

• Purchase of instructional materials and supplies needed for the

class.

10
The most challenging aspect is that the school is a neophyte school. And there are

a lot of established schools in the vicinity. Forecasting will help determine how possible

the school could sustain and looking into the future how viable is it for more offerings

and later expansion. However, we only consider the constraints for two possible

outcome: that students after Kindergarten will still enroll in ITEC, Inc. (SPPC) the

following year in Grade 1 or transfer to other school for the following year.

11
III. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

Forecasting the number of students each year represents a significant activity for
Saint Pedro Poveda College because this number is the basis of determining the
probable incomes thus the basis of foundation for operational plans or strategies for
the school. Forecasting is a technique that uses historical data as inputs to make
estimates of future trend.

Below figures show the actual number of enrollees for the early childhood education
of Pedro Poveda College from the time it started its operation and the actual number
of students who opt to stay in the school as well as those who transfer to other
school for their primary education.

Table 3.1 Actual number of enrollees for the early childhood education

No. of Students stayed in the institution for their primary Transferred

School Year Enrollees education students

2015-2016 6 5 1

2016-2017 7 6 0

2017-2018 40 26 14

2018-2019 85 57 28

III. 1. By using exponential smoothening with trend projection, we forecast the trend of
number of enrollees for the next five years on each school year.

Table 3.2 Number of Forecasted Enrollees

School Year No. of Enrollees

2015-2016 6

2016-2017 7

2017-2018 40

2018-2019 85

2019-2020 78 Forecasted

2020-2021 96

2021-2022 115

2023-2024 134

2024-2025 153

12
Figure 3.1– Graph of School Year 2020 up to 2025

13
 By using exponential smoothening with trend analysis as our forecasting method we
have forecasted the number of students who will be enrolling for their early childhood
education for the next five years. Using the probability, we have calculated the number
of kindergarten students who will stay in Poveda for their primary education as well as
those who choose to transfer to other school for their primary education.
Using the historical data we develop the following matrix:

{ .65 }
P=
{.35 }
Table 3.3. Probability

EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION PROBABILITY

SCHOOL FORECASTED # OF STAY IN THE SAME TRANSFER TO OTHER
YEAR ENROLEES INSTITUTION (65%) INSTITUTION (35%)

2020-2021 96 62 34

2021-2022 115 75 40

2022-2023 134 87 47

2023-2024 153 99 54

2024-2025 171 111 60

Poveda just started running its private educational institution five (5) years ago.
Since its new in the business, starting is not an easy endeavor. Most of its cash
outflows is geared towards acquiring and maintenance of its school facilities as well
as hiring staffs that would help running the business. Hence, revenue is still low and
initial startup cost are high. Moreover, it results to a negative cash flow to the
company.

One of the main challenges of the school is the material number of students that
currently enroll in Poveda for their early childhood education who opt to transfer to
other school for their primary education for the upcoming next school year.In the

14
Illustration below we had two options either increase tuition fee or stabilize the tuition
fee.

Figure 3.2 Decision Tree Analysis:

Using the illustration above. We used the historical data to develop the following
probabilities:

Increase tuition fee

a. 40% kindergarten students who will remain in the same school for the next
school year; results average amount of P306,000 profit will be earn
b. 60% kindergarten students who will transfer to other school for the next
school year; average amount of P459,000 decrease of profit

Stabilize tuition fee

c. 68% kindergarten students who will remain in the same school for the next
school year; results average amount of P520,000 profit will be earn
d. 32% kindergarten students who will transfer school for the next school year;
average amount of P245,000 decrease of profit

15
Expected Monetary Value:

Increase Tuition fee: ((306,000) *(40%) + (-459,000) * (60%)) = -153,000

Stabilize Tuition fee: ((520,000) * (68%) + (-245,000) * 32%)) = 257,200

Using the decision tree analysis, if we choose to increase the tuition fees
there is an average decrease of P153,000 of profit and if we choose to
stabilize the tuition fee an average increase of 245,000 of profit will be
obtain. Thus, the best alternative is to stabilize the tuition fee that will give
an average of P245,000 of profit

16
IV. CONCLUSION

1. Specific (application)
In any educational institution projection on the number of enrollees is very important
and necessary. Forecasting therefore played a crucial role. Wrong forecast may result
to opportunity lost. And in any educational institution once opportunities are lost it will
take time to regain back the reputation of the school. Once your client are satisfied
with the quality of education that the school is offering, it will passed on to the next
generation after generation. The school is strategically situated wherein there are a lot
of subdivision in the vicinity for potential clients. Therefore, it is very important to have
a good forecasting so not to give problem to the school in terms of hiring of teachers,
provision of facilitates in the case there will be influx of students.

2. General (Principle)
Given that potential competitors within the area the school must fortify its quality of
education and strengthen its marketing and promotion:
Quality Education
• ITEC, Inc. (SPPC): Personalized Education Pedagogy = multiple intelligences
• PEP curriculum must aligned with DepEd curriculum
• Environment = conducive for learning, friendly and safe
• Competitive Facilities

Marketing and Promotion

• massive promotion like tarpaulin, flyers etc.
• visit daycare centers and make campaigns
• maintain the good relationship/partnership with parents because parents are
the main promoters of the school
• proximity of the school
3. Summary for Management

Stabilize tuition fee

• Most of the students opt to transfer to other school to avail a lower tuition fee
• The institution should set a tuition fee that provide a minimal profit at the same
time provides no loss (breakeven point), since the school just started its
operation recently it us expected to have a negative cash flow.

17
SUMMARY FOR MANAGEMENT
Every learning institution has a unique factor of its own. Having a Personalized
Education Pedagogy which aims at the holistic education or total development of
persons through academic instruction, spiritual an social formation is a must that the
school must prove.
Since it is a neophyte school, teacher trainings, curriculum, classroom management,
facilities and among others need to be maintained and continuously monitored to lie
up the pedagogy of the school.

18
V.APPENDICES

Below figures show how we get the above forecasted figures using exponential
smoothening with trend projection.

Figure 3.2 – S.Y. 2020-2021

Figure 3.3 – S.Y. 2021-2022

19
Figure 3.4 – S.Y. 2022-2023

Figure 3.5 – S.Y. 2023-2024

20
Figure 3.6 – S.Y. 2024-2025

21
 CURRICULUM VITAE

PERSONAL DATA

NAME: TRICIA MARIETUMANDA

Other Names: TRISH
Address: Brgy. Bayabas, Toril, Davao City
Mobile Number: 09451072248
Email Address: triciatumanda22@gmail.com
Date of Birth: 06/April/1996

EDUCATION

• Masters of Business Administration, University of Southeastern Philippines, Obrero,

Davao City, 2019 – Present
• Bachelor of Science in Accountancy, University of Immaculate Concepcion, Bonifacio
Street, Davao City, 2016
•
WORK EXPERIENCE

• Accounting Specialist, Eastwest Bank, Corner Inigo Street, Bajada, Davao City–
December 2018 up to present.

22
 CURRICULUM VITAE

PERSONAL DATA

Name : Fairy Abigail L. Nacional

Permanent Address : Magobawok, Bayabas, Surigao del Sur
Mobile Number : +63 912 066 2726
Email Address : fairyabigailn@gmail.com
Date of Birth : December 5, 1992

EDUCATION
• Masters of Business Administration
University of Southeastern Philippines
Obrero, Davao City (2019 – Present)
• Bachelor of Science in Business Administration Major in Marketing
Management
Xavier University-Ateneo de Cagayan
Corrales St., Cagayan de Oro City (2009 – 2014)
WORK EXPERIENCE
• El Don Resort
Sales and Reservations Officer
Brgy. Pundaguitan, Governor Generoso, Davao Oriental
Booking Office: Roadway Inn Mezzanine Floor, JP Laurel Ave., Bajada,
Davao City
April 2019 – Present
• Department of Social Welfare and Development CARAGA
Project Development Officer II
R.Palma St., Capitol Site, Butuan City
April 2016 – December 2018
• Convergys Philippines
Customer Service Representative
Abreeza Corporate Center, JP. Laurel Ave., Davao City
October 2014 – February 2016

23
 CURRICULUM VITAE

PERSONAL DATA

NAME: Ericca L. Novicio

Address: Blk 54 Lot 13 Country Homes, Cabantian, Davao City
Mobile Number: 09091785874
Email Address: ericcanovicio8@gmail.com
Date of Birth: November 15, 1996

EDUCATION
• Masters of Business Administration, University of Southeastern Philippines,
Obrero, Davao City, (2019 – Present)
• Bachelor of Science in Customs Administration, Holy Cross of Davao Inc.,
Sta. Ave., Davao City, (2013 – 2017)
• Customs Broker Licensure Exam Passer

WORK EXPERIENCE
• Import Associate, Global Brilliance Customs Brokerage, 3rd Flr. D.C. Invest
Bldg, Ponciano Davao City, (2018 – Present)

24
 CURRICULUM VITAE

PERSONAL DATA

NAME: Maria Milarie T. Babia

Provincial Address: Esperanza Kinoguitan Mis. Or.
City Address: Blk 13 Lot 2 Mt. Sinai St. Cor Beverly Hills, Phase
2 Well Spring Catalunan Pequeno, Davao City
Mobile Number: 09773356943
Email Address: mariamilariebabia@gmail.com
Date of Birth: November 6, 1978

EDUCATION

• Masters of Business Administration, University of Southeastern Philippines,

Obrero, Davao City, (2019 – Present)
• Bachelor of Science in Business Management, Xavier University Ateneo De
Cagayan, Cagayan De Oro City
• Undergraduate 18 units in Education, University of Southeastern Philippines,
Obrero, Davao City
• LET Passer

WORK EXPERIENCE

• Institucion Teresiana de Educacion y Cultura, Inc. (Saint Pedro Poveda

College), Davao City – Finance In-Charge and General Service (2017 –
Present)
• Institucion Teresiana de Educacion y Cultura, Inc. (Saint Pedro Poveda
College), Davao City – Kindergarten Teacher (2015 – 2017)
• Saint Pedro Poveda College, Quezon City – Purchasing Officer (2008 – 2014)
• St. Mary’s High School, Cagayan de Oro City – Cashier (2002 – 2008)
• Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement, Camuigin – Enterprise
Development Associate – (2000 – 2002)
• Tahanan n Maria Foundation, Cagayan de Oro City – Street Educator and
Bookkeeper (1999 - 2000)

25
 CURRICULUM VITAE

PERSONAL DATA

NAME: CELESTE O. ORQUILLAS

City Address: San Lorenzo Ruiz Waling2x St. Buhangin, Davao City
Mobile Number: +63916 -150-2415
Email Address: orquillasceleste@gmail.com
Date of Birth: October 18, 1987

EDUCATION

• Masters of Business Administration, University of Southeastern Philippines,

Obrero, Davao City, (2019 – Present)
• Mindanao University of Science and Technology
2011 - 2015
Degree: BS Technology Communication Management
• University of Southeastern Philippines
2004 - 2008
Degree: BS Information Technology

WORK EXPERIENCE

Department of Health Regional Office – XI

September, 2018
JO Staff
Department of Health Regional Office – X
May, 2015 September, 2018
Administrative Aide I - JO

CURRICULUM VITAE

26
PERSONAL DATA

NAME: Lincoln G. Romero

Provincial Address: Davao Del Sur
City Address: Sandawa Village, Buhangin District,
Davao City
Mobile Number: 09770283666
Email Address: lincolngromero0803@gmail.com
Date of Birth: August 03, 1994

EDUCATION

• Masters of Business Administration, University of Southeastern Philippines,

Obrero, Davao City, (2019 – Present)
• Bachelor of Science in Accounting Technology, Notre Dame of Marbel
University, Koronadal City, South Cotabato

WORK EXPERIENCE

• F.E. Bascones Bookkeeping & Auditing Office, Davao City – Accountant

(2016 – Present)
• SPES Program @ Provincial of Veterinary Office - Provincial of South
Cotabato (April 2012)
• SPES Program @ Provincial of Statistics Office - Provincial of South Cotabato
(May 2012)

CURRICULUM VITAE

27
PERSONAL DATA

NAME: Kimberly C. Dading

Address: Blk 8 Lot 10 Purok 11 Communal, Davao City
Mobile Number: 09288298614
Email Address: keeem021214@gmail.com
Date of Birth: October 31, 1995

EDUCATION
• Masters of Business Administration, University of Southeastern Philippines,
Obrero, Davao City, (2019 – Present)
• Bachelor of Science in Entrepreneurship, University of Southeastern
Philippines, Obrero, Davao City, (2013 – 2017)

WORK EXPERIENCE
• Founder, ATD Business Consultancy Services, Door 2A Bldg. 20 Iñigo St.
Obrero, Davao City (February 2019-Present)
• Manager for Research Development and Sales, Trust Management Centre,
Unit 3B Nicholas Bldg. Quirino Avenue, Davao City (2017-2019)
• Branch Manager, RJ4 Motor parts and Hardware, Babak Samal Island. (2017)

28