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DETTE EXTÉRIEURE:
ANALYSE ET MESURE
I
BIBLIOGRAPHIE
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Pressions inflationnistes
Fort taux de dépense sur les
biens nationaux et
Pressions sur la balance des paiements d’importations
SELON MCKINSEY :
LES PAYS DONT LA
DETTE AUGMENTE EN
% DU PIB
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Le revenu disponible?
Y = revenu brut - importations & taxes + entrées de K
Y = C + I + G + X – M – T + (Km – K flight)
Epargne = Y – C
(S – I ) + (T – G) = (X – M) + (Km – K F)
Epargne nette Balance Balance Flux de K nets
fiscale commerciale
3
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2010
4
22/01/2019
5
22/01/2019
6
22/01/2019
7
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8
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9
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10
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12
10
0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2019
200
150
100
50
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350%
Private Public
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Japan Ireland Portugal Greece France € Zone Spain UK USA China Italy WORLD Germany EMCs
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Deleveraging?
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-181-90 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
-3
-5
-7
CA/GDP
-9
-11
-13
-15
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2019
14
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1200
700
200
-800
-1300
-1800
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2019
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
15
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0
81-90 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2019
16
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17
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Stock variable
▶Solvency = Debt/GDP < 66%*
Debt/Exports < 150%
Reserves/months of Imports > 6 months
Flow variable
▶Liquidity = Debt Service ratio < 33% of X Interest/X
ratio < 25%
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CALCULER LA DETTE
EXTÉRIEURE TOTALE:
LE SYSTÈME DE
RAPPORTS DES
CRÉANCIERS
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FMI; 1900; 5%
Autres; 2000;
TUNISIE: 6% Club de
DETTE EXTERNE TOTALE Court terme;
Londres; 4445;
12%
220% DETTE/EXPORTS
IFIs/Multi;
6403; 18%
Club de Paris;
3000; 8%
Maturité moyenne = 8 ans
15% détenus par fonds spéculatifs DTS; 384; 1%
Crédits export;
3814; 11%
Bonds; 6900;
19%
Hypothèse du FMI: le taux d’endettement augmente jusqu’
en 2019 avant de se stabiliser par une réduction du déficit
des comptes courants à 8,6% en 2019
41
MH BOUCHET/2019
250
Ratio Dette/Exports 40
30
20
200
10
0
150 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
100
50
0
MH BOUCHET/2019 42
1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
21
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22
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▶Although Tunisia has issued debt over the past few years it has
always come with assistance, guaranteed by the US government,
through its Agency for International Development, or Japan.
▶
International investors keen to capitalize on the country’s recent
presidential elections put in orders > $4bn for the $1bn bond,
allowing the country to borrow at a lower than expected rate of
5.875% over 10 years.
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800
600
400
200
0
1996
2007
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
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LIBOR
Average rate
25
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If Debt/GDP= 85%
If GDP growth = 2%
Then deficit must be < 1,7%
Deficit
Average Debt/GDP
Time
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2019
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27