Impact of Covid-19 crisis

on short-term business
statistics Statistics Explained

Data from May 2020

Planned update of the article: May 2020

Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)

This article presents the development of short-term business statistics (STS) indicators in the Covid-19 crisis.
The first results concern the development of the retail trade volume indicator. In the following weeks, Eurostat
will add information on industrial production, construction and services. These data will be added as soon as
they become available; for the dates of publication see the STS release calendar .

Please also see the monthly Eurostat News Release 6 May 2020 .

Covid-19 containment measures in Europe

The Covid-19 virus hit Europe in January and February, with the first cases confirmed in Spain, France and
Italy. Covid-19 infections have now been diagnosed in all European Union Member States .

To fight the pandemic, EU Member States have taken a wide variety of measures. As of 17 March, EU Member
States imposed temporary restrictions of non-essential travel from third countries into the EU (exceptions were
foreseen for nationals of all EU Member States and Schengen Associated States). Most countries also imposed
restrictions on the movements between EU Member States (an overview of the measures can be found here ).

Source : Statistics Explained (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticsexplained/) - 07/05/2020 1

Schools were closed in most Member States in the second week of March. Public events were cancelled by
almost all Member States and private gatherings (with numbers of persons varying from 2 to 50) were banned.
In almost all countries, bars, restaurants and hotels have been closed. In addition, most countries closed re-
tail shops apart from supermarkets, pharmacies and banks. In Italy and Spain, non-essential production was
stopped and several countries imposed regional or even national lockdown measures which further stifled the
economic activities in many areas.

The large majority of the prevention measures were taken during mid March. The most recent data on the
retail trade volume published on 6 May 2020 are the first short-term statistics results that reflect the crisis.

Development of retail trade volume in March 2020

In March 2020, the retail volume (price adjusted turnover) in the EU-27 fell by 10.4 % compared with February
2020 and by 8.2 % compared with March 2019. In the euro-area , the decline was 11.2 % compared with
February 2020 and 9.2 % compared with the previous year.

Figure 1 shows the March decline in retail trade volume for the total and the various product groups (e.g.
food, non-food, automotive fuel, etc.). The graph also contains data for the distribution channels supermarkets,
department stores and internet trade.

Figure 1: EU-27, development of retail volume 1st quarter 2020, monthly data, seasonally and
calendar adjusted (2015=100) - Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)

In the EU-27, retail trade of non-food products dropped by 21.3 % in March 2020 compared with February
2020. The strongest decline of -40.0 % was recorded for textiles, clothing, and leather products. Unusually large
were also the reductions in the purchases of electric products and furniture (-16.1 %) and computers and books
and similar products (-16.0 %). Sales of automotive fuel dropped by 19.3 %. For food, beverages and tobacco
an increase of 4.7 % was registered for the EU-27 in March, which is significantly higher than a normal increase
(around 0.2 %). The sales volume of pharmaceutical products, cosmetics etc. remained more or less constant.

For comparison, Figure 2 shows how the various retail trade categories usually developed on average dur-
ing the years 2010 – 2019 (to make the various index levels comparable, all years have been re-referenced to
1st quarter = 100). Generally, most product categories show a relatively steady, but moderate increase in sales
volume between January and March; exceptions are textiles and automotive fuel which as a rule show a small
decline in February, but recover again in March.

Impact of Covid-19 crisis on short-term business statistics 2

Figure 2: EU-27, average development of retail trade volume during the first quarter 2010 –
2019, monthly data, seasonally adjusted (2015=100). Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)

For the euro area, the developments were very similar to the trends in the EU-27. The sales volume of non-foods
products declined by 23.1% of which the reductions for textiles (- 38.9 %) was by far the strongest. A fall in
the sales was also recorded for electrical goods (- 17.8 %) and computer equipment etc. (- 16.4 %). The sales
of pharmaceutical and cosmetic products remained almost stable (- 0.5 %). Sales of food products increased by
5.0%.

”Panic buying”
In the expectation of shortages, “panic buying” by worried consumers could be observed during March. The
Federal Statistical Office of Germany conducted a special experimental survey with scanner data that showed
a massive increase in purchases of articles such as disinfectants, flour and toilet paper during mid March. Such
hoarding purchases of certain durable goods (and of alcohol) could be observed in several countries. The sta-
tistical effect of these purchases in the EU retail trade figures is to some extent identifiable, but not clearly
marked. The main reasons are that the effects concern only a very special and small group of articles and that
they were rather short-lived. Supermarket shelves had been emptied rather quickly and could not be re-stocked
in the very short run (although there were actually no shortages of these products) so purchases stopped after
a few days simply because of a lack of supply. Moreover, many of these products are not very expensive and
have only a limited effect on the total value of purchases. Representatives of trade and producers as well as
Government representatives also publicly announced that there were no production shortages of these goods
and that the supply was ensured; this is likely to also have abated consumers’ concerns. And finally, there is a
natural limit to how much of these goods consumers can store at home.

Comparison with 2008

The global financial crisis in 2008 had dramatic effects on the production in industry and construction (for a
detailed analysis of the 2008 crisis on STS indicators see here ; its effects on retail trade were comparatively
modest however (see Figure 3).

Between January 2008 and December 2008, the total retail volume index for the EU-27 dropped by 1.7 in-
dex points compared with a drop by 11.7 points between March and February 2020. The strongest decline
in 2008 was measured for electrical goods, books, and similar articles (-4.7 points), the index for automotive
fuel dropped by 2.7 points and the index for textiles by 2.8 points. The mail order volume dropped by only
half an index point. By comparison, in March 2020 compared with only one month earlier, the index for the
sales volume of textiles dropped by 41.0 points, the index for automotive fuel by 20.6 points and the indices for
computer equipment, electrical appliances and furniture by 18 to 19 points.

Impact of Covid-19 crisis on short-term business statistics 3

Figure 3: EU-27, development of retail trade volume during the global financial crisis 2008,
monthly data, seasonally adjusted (2015=100). Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)

Development by country
Since the Covid-19 containment measures differed between countries as to timing and strictness, it was to be ex-
pected that the effects on retail trade would also vary. Table 1 shows the March on February growth rates for the
years 2010-2019 (average) and for the year 2020. For food products (including beverages and tobacco), there was
a general and substantial increase in March 2020 compared with the average March, in particular in Luxembourg
(20.1 %), Ireland (13.8 %) and Belgium (13.3 %). Purchases of non-food products (excluding automotive fuel)
dropped in all EU Member States, in particular in Luxembourg (-35.4 %), France (-33.3 %) and Spain (-33.0 %).

The reduction in retail volume was particularly strong for textiles, with the sales reduced by half or even
more in almost all Member States. The sales of computer equipment, books and similar goods were reduced by
around 15 % to 20 % in many countries, with the strongest declines observed in Bulgaria (-41.3 %) and Spain
(-40.6 %). The sales volume of electrical goods and furniture was reduced in a way comparable to computers
and books, the strongest decreases were recorded in Spain (-44.4 %) and Belgium (-40.1 %).

The consumption of automotive fuel was reduced by one third or more in several countries, e.g. in Bulgaria
(-36.7 %), Belgium (-33.1 %), France (-30.3 %), Austria (-30.2 %) and Malta (-30.1 %). The only non-food
product group for which increases were observed in March are pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, which may be
partly the result of an exploding demand for disinfectants (see above), but also a consequence of pharmacies
being one of the few shops that were allowed to open (see below). The countries in which the demand for these
products were exceptionally high were Estonia (16.7 %) and Sweden (13.4 %).

Impact of Covid-19 crisis on short-term business statistics 4

Table 1: Retail trade volume growth rates according to product groups - average March (2010-
2019) and March 2020, monthly data, seasonally adjusted. Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)

Around mid March 2020, many countries closed stores that were not considered essential, generally only su-
permarkets and pharmacies remained open. This had clear effects on the retail trade volume of the various
distribution channels (see Table 2). In supermarkets (i.e. general stores with food products prevailing) sales
generally increased, even in countries that experienced the strongest declines in sales activities, e.g. Bulgaria
(-18.1 % in total and 2.3 % in supermarkets), Spain (-14.4 % in total and 10.6 % in supermarkets) and Portugal
(-11.8 % in total and 2.6 % in supermarkets). Sales in department stores (which were mostly closed after mid
March) significantly dropped, e.g. by 60.2 % in Belgium, 39.2 % in Spain, 36.3 % in Lithuania, and 29.8 % in
Germany. The development of internet sales was relatively heterogeneous, but the sales via this channel also
increased in many Member States. (Note that the internet trade in statistics covers only businesses whose main
activity is the internet trade.)

Table 2: Retail trade volume growth rates according to sales channel - average March (2010-2019)
and March 2020, monthly data, seasonally adjusted. Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)

Impact of Covid-19 crisis on short-term business statistics 5

Source data for tables and graphs
• Impact of Covid-19 crisis on short-term business statistics: tables and figures

Data sources
The latest results for the development of retail trade are published in monthly news releases by Eurostat.

According to the STS-Regulation the retail trade volume index is published only 30 days after its reference
months. At this early stage it is normal that no complete coverage of data can be ensured by National Statisti-
cal Institutes and that data have to be estimated to some degree. As a consequence, revisions occur during the
publications that follow.

The Covid-19 crisis posed additional problems for data collections, since for example closed shops could not be
reached or did not supply any data. Moreover, it was not clear if missing data might not be due to businesses
being permanently closed. As a consequence, it may be expected that revisions of the first retail volume data
could be subject to greater revisions than is usually the case.

The data in this article are, for several Member States, based on fewer statistical observations than usual
or alternative sources. For missing data, imputation and estimation methods were applied. Information on the
compilation of short-term business statistics during the COVID-19 crisis can be found here .

Main tables
• Short-term business statistics (t_sts) , see:

Trade and services (t_sts_ts)

Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G) (t_sts_wrt)

Turnover and volume of sales (t_sts_wrt_ts)

Database
• Short-term business statistics (sts) , see:

Trade and services (sts_ts)

Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G) (sts_wrt)
Turnover and volume of sales index (sts_wrt_ts)

Dedicated section
• Short-term business statistics

Methodology
• Methodology of short-term business statistics – interpretation and guidelines
• Methodology of short-term business statistics – associated documents

• Short-term business statistics - Metadata in SDMX format (ESMS metadata file — sts_esms)
• More information on Metadata in Eurostat

Impact of Covid-19 crisis on short-term business statistics 6

Publications
• All News Releases related to short-term statistics

• Recession in the EU: its impact on retail trade, Statistics in Focus 88/2009

External links
• Federal Statistical Office of Germany, news release 112 of 25 March 2020

Impact of Covid-19 crisis on short-term business statistics 7