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A. Inflation is an overall general rise in the price level for goods and
services
B. In the time value of money analysis above, interest rates were
assumed to be "real" rates, and the cash flows over the time line
were assumed to have the same purchasing power. With inflation
the purchasing power of cash flows over a time line declines at the
rate of inflation.
C. Real versus Nominal Cash Flows
One measure of inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The annualized percentage increases in the CPI are a
measure of the rate of inflation.
Consumers and investors are concerned about the real
value of $1 or the purchasing power of the dollar or
investment return in a period of time.
D. Inflation and Interest Rates
Actual dollar prices or interest rates are called nominal
dollars or interest rates. Bonds, loans, and most financial
contracts are quoted in nominal interest rates.
Nominal rates, adjusted for inflation in a period, are real
interest rates, or the rate at which the purchasing power of
an investment.
The real rate of interest is calculated as
The approximate real rate is the nominal rate minus the
inflation rate. (See slide 3-48)
E. What Fluctuates: Real or Nominal Rates?
Investors and lenders include expected inflation rates in
nominal rates to compensate for the loss of purchasing
power.
Nominal rates include expected real rates of return plus
expected inflation rates.
F. Valuing Real Cash Payments
Since nominal rates include real rates plus expected
inflation, discounting nominal future cash flows by nominal
rates will give the same answer as discounting real,
expected inflation adjusted cash flows by the real interest
rate.
Current dollar cash flows must be discounted by the nominal
interest rate; real cash flows must be discounted by the real
interest rate.
G. Providing For Retirement
Expected inflation is a significant variable in retirement
planning, tuition savings plans, choice of vocation, or any
long-term financial planning. Even a low rate of inflation can
have a major negative effect on people who will receive
relatively fixed nominal income or returns.
The actual purchasing power rate of return (real rate) on an
investment is the nominal expected rate of return, 1+r,
divided by 1 + the expected inflation rate. With high inflation,
the realized real rate may be negative.
H. Real or Nominal?
Most financial analyses in this text will assume nominal rates
and will discount nominal cash flows. When one set of cash
flows are presented in real term, such as the social security
cash flows, then nominal cash flows and rates must be
adjusted to compare, contrast, and mix the cash flows. As
noted above, do not mix nominal and real or you will have-
garbage!
II. ANNUALLY COMPOUNDED INTEREST RATES VERSUS ANNUAL
PERCENTAGE RATES
A. The effective annual interest rate (See slide 3-52) is the period rate
annualized using compound interest. If the one-month rate is 1
percent, the effective annual rate is 12 percent to the twelfth power
for there are twelve months in a year. Thus, (1.01)12 -1 = .1268 or
12.68 percent. The exponent used is the number of periods in one
year.
B. The annual percentage rate (APR) is the period rate times the
number of periods to complete a year or the interest rate that is
annualized using simple interest. In the case above the one-month
rate of 1 percent times the number of months in a year equals
12.68 percent. This is the APR.