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Quess Corp
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
30,196 8,879
CMP: INR166 TP: INR280 (+70%) Upgrade to Buy
Stable business/liquidity position; Attractive multiples
The stock corrected almost ~75% from pre-COVID-19 levels on concerns around: a)
Bloomberg QUESS IN the severe impact on general staffing and collections, b) liquidity position, and c)
Equity Shares (m) 147 the potential legal liabilities in outcome-based businesses.
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 24.5 / 0.3 However, given a) industry concerns around manpower shortages / sharp wage
52-Week Range (INR) 718 / 165 increases and b) government orders forbidding lay-offs, we understand the
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -17/-44/-55
General Staffing segment has not witnessed any material dislocation thus far.
12M Avg Val (INR M) 144
Accordingly, we believe the above-mentioned concerns are exaggerated. A
material impact is unlikely going forward as the economy goes into a phased re-
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
opening and enterprises try to dodge the supply-side disruption.
Y/E March FY20E FY21E FY22E
Sales 109.0 116.0 139.7 While Terrier and Monster should witness stronger demand in the current
EBIT 4.0 3.9 5.1 situation, volumes in Facilities Management (FM) are likely to be higher (v/s pre-
EBIT Margin (%) 3.6 3.3 3.6 COVID) once the lockdowns are eased. We anticipate continued headwinds in IT
PAT 2.6 2.3 3.5 Staffing, BPO, and MIS until there is further clarity regarding the easing of the
EPS (INR) 17.8 15.7 23.6 lockdown in global/tier I cities.
EPS Growth (%) 1.5 -11.6 50.1 Given the business pressures on clients due to the lockdowns, mark-ups and
BV/Share (INR) 263.5 283.8 314.3
working capital cycles may witness some headwinds in the near term.
Ratios
Ministry of Finance recently announced that 44 central labor laws are being
RoE (%) 9.1 7.4 10.2
RoCE (%) 11.7 10.2 12.3 subsumed into four uniform codes. As we highlighted in an earlier note (link),
Valuations reduced labor market rigidity should increase the formality of the workforce, in
P/E (x) 9.3 10.6 7.0 turn driving demand for flexi staffing. We expect Quess / TeamLease / SIS Security
P/BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.5 to be the biggest long-term beneficiaries of these reforms.
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.7 3.3 2.1 In the Base Case, we expect 13%/15% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY20–22E. Using
EV/Sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 residual income approach, we arrive at a target price of INR280. We adjust FY20E
book value of the company for outstanding goodwill/inter-company loans/MAT
Shareholding pattern (%) credit on the balance sheet. We use an equity charge of ~16% to factor in some of
As On Mar-20 Dec-19 Mar-19 the elevated risks. Our Target Price implies ~12x FY22E EPS, still a steep 65%
Promoter 54.9 54.7 71.4
discount to the target multiple of TeamLease. Encouraging efforts by the new
DII 16.6 13.2 7.1
management to address certain investor concerns (e.g., capital allocation and
FII 14.6 16.6 13.1
governance) would be a key re-rating driver.
Others 13.9 15.5 8.4
FII Includes depository receipts Expect resilience in General Staffing going ahead
COVID-19-led lockdowns, the resultant business uncertainty, and liquidity issues
Stock Performance (1-year)
have led to a surge in unemployment in the past couple of months. The impact
Quess Corp
Sensex - Rebased
has been more pronounced in the gig economy (e.g. Zomato, Swiggy, Uber, etc.)
870 and blue-collar workforce given that a significant share of these jobs cannot be
690 delivered from home. This has led to concerns of massive lay-offs and requests
510 for demobilizations in the General Staffing segments of Quess/TeamLease.
330
150
However, we understand the reality has turned out much better than initially
Nov-19
May-19
May-20
Aug-19
Feb-20
feared. We reckon the headcount reduction in either of these firms would not
have been significant (not > 8k) even at the peak of uncertainty over March–
April. This was largely driven by: a) industry concerns around potential
manpower shortages / sharp wage increases once the lockdown is lifted and b)
government orders forbidding lay-offs.
As the economy prepares for a phased re-opening and given that clients have
already incurred the bench cost of associates for the previous two months, it is
unlikely that Quess would see a sharp spike in demobilization requests going
forward (May–July). The propensity of enterprises to dodge supply-side disruption
risk would be another key tailwind.
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Quess Corp
In line with the new CEO’s ROE target of ~20% (by FY22, pre-COVID-19), Quess is
likely to make the balance sheet lighter by gradually writing off certain assets (such
as goodwill in TSIPL) that were dragging down asset turns. The company further
indicated a roadmap to rationalize overall outstanding related-party loans (to
~INR1bn from ~INR5.6bn). A significant portion of this reduction would be achieved
by way of conversion into equity (e.g., in Heptagon) and Compulsorily Convertible
Debentures, or CCDs, (e.g., TSIPL).
The logical closure of some of these aspects (such as receivables from TSIPL, Exhibit
5) is still a work in progress. While the conversion of loans may not be the best
payback approach, we used the Residual Income Model to compute the value of the
company by excluding outstanding loans / goodwill from the current book value.
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Quess Corp
Over the past six years, the central government has been talking about simplifying
and unifying the 44 central labor laws into four uniform codes. However, the
execution on this front is still pending (refer to Exhibit 7, 8 for status). While the
Code on Wages was already approved by the Parliament in 2019, the framing of
rules is still pending. The codes on a) Industrial Relations, b) Social Security, and c)
Occupational Safety, Health, and Working Conditions are currently with the
Parliamentary Standing Committee. In the set of reforms announced by Ministry of
Finance recently, it was informed that the 44 existing central labor laws are being
subsumed into four uniform codes. Further clarity is awaited on the mode of
execution and timeline for implementation.
As highlighted in our earlier note (link), regulatory easing in the labor markets would
result in structural decline in hiring / compliance / workforce management costs in
the formal sector. Also, it should ease the theoretical complexity of adherence. Over
the medium to long term, this should translate into higher formality in the labor
market. In sectors such as IT/ITES, BFSI, and Retail as well as in micro-markets such
as Delhi, it was empirically noted (Exhibit 9–12) that a larger formal workforce
would in turn drive a higher need for flexi/temp staffing. Accordingly, we believe
Quess would be one of the key beneficiaries of these reforms.
At the same time, we are cognizant of the fact that the blanket suspension of most
of the central labor laws (proposed by the UP government through an ordinance) or
introduction of a high National Floor Wage (NFW, > 12-15k per month) could be
counter-productive. Such radical measures in either direction may actually drive a
reverse shift in the workforce from the formal to the informal sector. Further
developments in these aspects would be key observables.
In the Base Case, we expect 13%/15% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY20–22E. In the
Bear Case, we expect a 5%/-3% annualized change in revenue/EPS. Using residual
income approach, we arrive at a target price of INR280. We adjust FY20E book value
for outstanding goodwill/inter-company loans/MAT credit on the balance sheet. We
used an equity charge of 16% to factor in some of the elevated risks. Our TP implies
12x FY22E EPS, still a steep 65% discount to TeamLease.
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Quess Corp
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Economy witnessed a sharp spike in employment during the lockdowns
9% 9%
Exhibit 2: However, General Staffing div. of Quess and… Exhibit 3: …TeamLease should not witness sharp impact
Quess - Headcount (k)
244 Teamlease - Headcount (k)
240 240
236 167
165
163
223 161
159
1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20E Apr-20E 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20E Apr-20E
Exhibit 4: Portfolio heat map of Quess across verticals and service offerings
General Staffing Facility Mgt. Security Services
BFSI
Retail
Ecommerce
Industrial
Telecom
IT
FMCG
Healthcare
Federal Govt
Logistics
Others
Source: MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Logical closure on TSIPL still a work in progress
Total receivable from TSIPL - INR 2300mn
Recovered, 920
Yet to be
recovered, 1380
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Quess Corp
Exhibit 6: Company increased its borrowing in March to conserve cash on balance sheet
12,814
11,400
8,848 9,200
8,291 7,844 8,304
4,150
3,096 2,717 3,035
1,447 1,459
127
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Quess Corp
Exhibit 8: Some labor law changes various state governments are proposing/implementing
No. State Labor law reforms
The govt. has relaxed all labor laws in the state, barring three laws, and one provision for a period of
1 Uttar Pradesh three years to enhance business investments. Furthermore, it has increased working hours to 12
hours a day and 72 hours a week from 20th April to 19th July 2020.
The govt. has exempted industries and factories from all the provisions of the relevant acts, barring a
2 Madhya Pradesh few, for a period of 1000 days. Moreover, it has increased working hours to 12 hours a day and 72
hours a week for a period of three months.
The govt. has exempted all factories from various provisions pertaining to weekly hours, daily hours,
overtime, intervals for rest, etc., under the Factories Act from 20th April to 19th July 2020. Along with
3 Gujarat
this, it has increased working hours to 12 hours a day and 72 hours a week. Furthermore, the due
dates for carrying out tests, examinations, and inspections in factories have been extended further.
All shops and factories have been asked to submit consolidated annual returns instead of multiple
4 Rajasthan returns under various labor laws. The govt. has further raised working hours to 12 hours a day and
raised the threshold for layoffs to 300 from 100 earlier.
The govt. has exempted the payment of late fees. All shops and factories have been asked to submit
5 Maharashtra
consolidated annual returns instead of multiple returns under various labor laws.
The govt. had previously issued a notification increasing the minimum wages of workers, but has now
6 Punjab revoked this with a second notification. It has also amended the Factories Act, increasing the
maximum working hours to 12 hours (from nine hours) for three months.
The govt. has exempted all factories from various provisions pertaining to weekly hours, daily hours,
7 Himachal Pradesh overtime, intervals for rest, etc., under the Factories Act from 21st April to 20th July 2020. Along with
this, it has increased working hours to 12 hours a day and 72 hours a week.
The govt. has exempted all factories from various provisions pertaining to weekly hours, daily hours,
8 Haryana overtime, intervals for rest, etc., under the Factories Act up to 30th June 2020, along with increasing
working hours to 12 hours a day.
Source: MOFSL
Exhibit 9: As formality of workforce increases… Exhibit 10: …demand for flexi staff is also expected to rise
31% Formal sector penetration 2.7% Flexi-staffing penetration
18%
15% 15% 14%
10% 0.9% 0.9%
8%
0.6% 0.6%
0.4% 0.4%
Source: Indian Staffing Federation, MOFSL. Note: Penetration is Source: Indian Staffing Federation, MOFSL. Note: Penetration is
calculated as percentage of total workforce calculated as percentage of total workforce
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Quess Corp
Exhibit 11: As formality of workforce increases… Exhibit 12: …demand for flexi staff is also expected to rise
3%
18%
1%
IT ITES E-comm. BFSI Mfg. Logistics IT ITES E-comm. BFSI Mfg. Logistics
Source: Indian Staffing Federation, MOFSL. Note: Penetration is Source: Indian Staffing Federation, MOFSL. Note: Penetration is
calculated as percentage of total workforce calculated as percentage of total workforce
Exhibit 13: Our Residual Income valuation adjusts the current book value for goodwill, inter-company loans and MAT credit
RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL – QUESS CORP
Current Market price (INR) 166
Base Case Bear Case
Average adjusted ROE (FY20-22E) 16% 12%
Average adjusted ROE (FY22-25E) 22% 19%
Average adjusted ROE (FY25-30E) 21% 20%
Average adjusted ROE (FY20-30E) 19% 18%
Book Value - FY20E (INR m) 29,868 29,868
Our adjustments to Book Value in FY21 (INR m)
Outstanding Goodwill on balance sheet 12,885 12,885
MAT credit 1,700 1,700
Outstanding Inter Company loans 4,700 4,700
Total adjustment 19,285 19,285
Adjusted Book Value FY21E (INR m) 12,885 11,792
Equity charge 16% 16%
Valuation per share (INR) 280 250
Upside (%) 70 52
Source: Company, MOFSL
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Quess Corp
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Quess Corp
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Quess Corp
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Quess Corp
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
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The associates of MOFSL may have:
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- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on
the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL
even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
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company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
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