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FY 20 FY 19 FY 18
Quarter Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Growth Rate 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.83 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.13 7.69 6.77 5.99
% (estimate
)
REPORT
Forecast changes in GDP FY 21 Q1:
FY 20 – Q3 vs Q2: The Indian economy continued to remain sluggish in the three months
ended December 2019. The pace of growth fell sharply in the third quarter when compared to
the revised growth during the second quarter. India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.7
percent in the October-December quarter of 2019-20. GDP growth in the previous quarter has
been revised to 5.1 percent. The official Q3 GDP data showed that the impact of a global
slowdown and weak manufacturing continued to weigh on the economy. According to the
estimates, farm sector grew at 3.5 percent compared to 4.3 percent in the previous quarter.
The CSO projected that the manufacturing sector saw contraction of 0.2 percent in 2019-20
against -0.1 percent in Q2 while mining and quarrying grew at 3.2 percent against 0.1 percent
in Q3. In gross value added terms, the economy grew at 4.5 percent in Q3, compared to a
revised 4.8 percent in Q2.
In comparison with Q2, Private consumption reflected in private final consumption
expenditure, rose by 5.86 percent in Q3. Investments, as measured by gross fixed capital
formation, fell 5.16 percent in Q3. Government final consumption expenditure rose by 11.8
percent in Q3. The agriculture sector grew at 3.5 percent in Q3, compared to 3.1 percent in
Q2. Mining sector growth stood at 3.2 percent in Q3 compared to 0.2 percent in the previous
quarter. Manufacturing contracted at 0.2 percent in Q3, compared to a contraction of 0.4
percent in Q2. Electricity and other public utilities contracted by 0.7 percent in Q3, as against
3.9 percent in Q2. The financial services sector grew at 7.3 percent in Q3 compared to 7.1
percent in the previous quarter.
The sharp contraction in gross fixed capital formation in Q3 FY20 underscores the tepid
investment sentiment, as well as the decline in capital spending by the state governments, a
fallout of their fiscal constraints.
FY 20 – Q2 vs Q1: The economy saw further deterioration in the growth of India's GDP to
5.1 per cent in Q2 from 5.6 per cent in Q1 of FY2020, due to weakening momentum in
industry. With subdued domestic demand, investment activity, and non-oil merchandise
exports weighing upon volume expansion, manufacturing growth decelerated further from the
marginal 0.6 percent in Q1 of FY2020 to 0.4 per cent in Q2. Heavy rainfall in August-
September of 2019 along with the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon and constrained
activities in the mining and construction sectors also contributed to a lower demand for
electricity from the agricultural and household sectors. In addition to that, muted industrial
activity reduced the demand for electricity generation.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew
by 2.0 percent as compared to growth of 3.1 per cent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices
for Q1 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by 2.7 percent as compared to growth of 0.2
percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 5.7
percent as compared to growth of 2.9 percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1
from Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting sector
grew by 7.1 percent as compared to growth of 5.8 percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at Basic
Prices for Q1 from Public Administration, Defence and Other Services sector grew by 8.5
percent as compared to growth of 10.1 percent in Q2.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 from Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services
sector grew by 5.9 percent as compared to growth of 7.1 percent in Q2. Quarterly GVA at
Basic Prices for Q1 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector
grew by 8.6 percent as compared to growth of 3.9 percent in Q2.
FY 20 – Q2 vs FY 19 – Q2: The National Statistical Office (NSO) estimated the growth rate
of GDP for Q2 of FY 19 to be 7% and the GDP growth rate for Q2 FY 20 to be 5.1%. Weak
domestic demand and sentiment, regulatory uncertainty and concerns about the health of the
non-banking financial sector were some of the reasons fuelling this downward spiral.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector
grew by 2.1 percent as compared to growth of 4.9 percent in Q2 FY 19.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by
0.1 percent as compared to growth of -2.2 percent in Q2 FY 19. The key indicators of Mining
sector, namely, production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered
growth rates of (-) 10.3 percent, (-) 5.1 percent, (-) 2.6 percent and (-) 1.2 percent, during Q2
of FY 20 as compared to 6.2 percent, (-) 4.4 percent, (-) 2.0 percent and 0.9 percent
respectively, during Q2 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from
‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by (-)1 percent as compared to growth of 6.9 percent in Q2 FY
19.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other
Utility Services’ sector grew by 3.6 percent as compared to growth of 8.7 percent in Q2 FY
19. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 0.4
percent during Q2 of FY 20 as compared to 7.5 percent in Q2 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at
Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 3.3 percent as compared to
growth of 8.5 percent in Q2 FY 19. Key indicators of Construction sector, namely,
production of Cement and Consumption of finished Steel registered growth rates of 0.3
percent and 3.3 percent respectively, during Q2 of FY 20 as compared to 12.5 percent, 9.9
percent respectively, in Q2 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q2 FY 20 from
Public Administration, Defence and Other Services sector grew by 11.6 percent as compared
to growth of 8.6 percent in Q2 FY 19. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union
Government Revenue Expenditure net of Interest Payments excluding Subsidies, grew by
33.9 percent during Q2 of FY 20 as compared to 22.2 percent in Q2 of FY 19.
FY 20 – Q1 vs FY 19 – Q1: The growth of GDP has declined largely due to low growth in
manufacturing and construction sector. The slowdown of Indian economy has been triggered
by a mix of both internal as well as external factors such as synchronised global slowdown,
demonetisation, poor implementation of GST, plummeting domestic automobile sales,
flattening of core sector growth and declining investment in construction and infrastructure.
Also High inflation, fuelled by rising crude prices, had stoked the slowdown.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector
grew by 2.0 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at
Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by 2.7 percent as
compared to growth of 0.4 percent in Q1 FY 19. The key indicators of Mining sector,
namely, Production of Coal, Crude Oil & Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates
of 2.7 percent, (-) 6.8 percent, (-)0.5 percent and 3.0 percent respectively, during Q1 of FY 20
as compared to 12.9 percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 0.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, during
Q1 of FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew
by 0.6 percent as compared to growth of 12.1 percent in Q1 FY 19.
Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other
Utility Services’ sector grew by 8.6 percent as compared to growth of 6.7 percent in Q1 FY
19. The key indicator of this sector, namely IIP of Electricity, registered growth rate of 7.2
percent during Q1 FY 20 as compared to 4.9 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic
Prices for Q1 FY 20 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 5.7 percent as compared to growth
of 9.6 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from Financial,
Real Estate and Professional Services sector grew by 5.9 percent as compared to growth of
6.5 percent in Q1 FY 19. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 FY 20 from this sector grew
by 8.5 percent as compared to growth of 7.5 percent in Q1 FY 1