Federal Election 2010 | The grunt needed for Defence | Robert Gottliebsen, Election 2010 | Commentary | Business Spectator

11/08/10 11:01 AM

Commentary 1 Comment

The grunt needed for Defence

Robert Gottliebsen, Election 2010
Published 7:45 AM, 11 Aug 2010 Last update 10:07 AM, 11 Aug 2010

Apart from the Prime Minister, in my view the most important minister in the 2010-13 parliament
will be the Defence Minister. Yes, more important than the Treasurer and Foreign Affairs
Minister.
If the Treasurer makes a mistake it can be rectified in the next few years. But the person who
becomes Defence Minister after the August 21 election faces a situation in which our children,
grandchildren and great-grandchildren will suffer if they make a mistake.
Australia has been blessed. Both the ALP and the Coalition have a person – and probably only
one person – who can perform this incredibly difficult task. In the case of a Gillard government
that person is Kevin Rudd. In the case of an Abbott government that person is Malcolm
Turnbull.
Since the 1960s the F-111 has given us dominance of the skies in the Asia-Pacific. Combine
that with the ANZUS alliance and Australia was secure. The Defence Minister could afford
mistakes.
In 2002 Australia joined the program to develop the Joint Strike Fighter to replace its F-111 and
other aircraft. We believed that the JSF would be delivered about 2013 and would maintain our
air superiority in the region. It is now not expected to be in full operation until 2020 – seven
years late. The delay was a serious problem, but nothing prepared us for what happened this
year when the Russians unveiled the PAK-FA T-50. Once defence experts analysed the plane’s
ability they realised that even if the JSF eventually reached its hoped-for specifications, the
Russian aircraft could shoot it out of the sky. The JSF was like a rifle against a machine gun.
(Last chance for Australia's defence, February 9; and Air defence in a spin, February 22.)
By 2020 Russia, India, China and Indonesia will have upgraded their versions of Russia’s
Sukhoi fighter to the PAK-FA T-50. Indonesia, India and China will then have the ability to fly
across the northern parts of Australia at will. Should we challenge them with the JSF, our planes
will almost certainly be shot down.
The US, as a result of lobbying from vested interests, is basing its future air defence mainly on
the JSF so it cannot help us. The US has an aircraft that can match the Russians – the F-22 –
but it needs further development. Originally the F-22 cost more than the JSF, but the escalation
in the JSF costs probably makes the F-22 cheaper than the JSF. The government has not yet
revealed to the parliament that the cost of Australia’s fleet of JSF lemons will be in excess of
$20 billion. So far they have quoted price tags that don’t include the engine and other essential
components.
In the life of the next parliament, Australia must decide whether to place firm orders for JSF
aircraft. The Defence Minister for the past 14 months, John Faulkner, was a fine minister who
realised the potential JSF problem and saw the magnitude of the decisions that would have to
be made in the next three years. For this and other reasons, he stepped down.
The Defence Minister in the new government has these tasks:
-- Evaluate the research that has been carried out in the UK, US and Australia to determine
whether the JSF really is a lemon. This is no easy task because it must be done by experts
outside the Australian Defence Department, which will not admit an error.
-- If the JSF is a lemon then the minister must stand up to the military bureaucracy in Australia.
This will be an enormous task because the bureaucracy will throw everything against a minister
who does not toe their line.
-- With the help of Kim "Bomber” Beazley in the US, the minister must begin to work on the
Americans to persuade them to scale down the JSF and boost the development of the F-22.
(Send in Bomber Beazley, March 11).

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Both Rudd and Turnbull have the intellectual horsepower to fully evaluate the JSF and come to
a sensible conclusion. I concede it is possible that they will come to a different conclusion from
aircraft evaluators around the globe, but assuming they don’t, then both Rudd and Turnbull also
have the stomach to handle the attack that will come from the top brass of the Australian
military.
They also have the difficult task of telling the American emperor that he has no clothes.
I realise Rudd wants to be Foreign Minister, but the fact is that, as Prime Minister, Rudd left
relations with China and India in a worse situation than they were under Howard. There was
also a problem with US President Obama. (Rudd's fatal diplomatic blunder, July 30.) If the
ALP wins the election we want a Prime Minister able to repair those relations. Gillard will not be
able to undertake the task if Rudd is Foreign Minister.
In the case of Turnbull, it's true his expertise is in the finance area, but like Rudd his intellect will
be well applied to the defence portfolio and in handling the consequences of the tough
decisions.
Whether the new Prime Minister is Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott, they both have a talent among
their potential ministers who is able to handle the incredibly important defence task. Let’s hope
that whoever wins uses that talent.

1 Comment

Richard Kleeman wrote:

Robert,
I think an ex-bureaucrat and lawyer/banker would not have the faintest idea of how to make
a separate judgement on something as complex as the modern jet fighter (See The grunt
needed for Defence , August 11) .
I make this comment based my 45-year flying career, which included flying for airlines. I
doubt whether Rudd would even know what three phase power is.
11 Aug 2010 10:33 AM

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