Implications of reverse migration that we see today – some thoughts

Bhaskar Mittra

I hate numbers and statistics beyond a point, but three numbers are what I will start with. 40
percent of India’s population, i.e. approximately 580 million people, is estimated to be urban
by 2030. India’s informal workforce stands at approximately 450 million, while internal
migrants numbers are approximately 450 million too (this number may have increased as this
was 2011 census data). With the onset of Covid crisis and the subsequent lockdown, a large
number of migrants and informal workers, and their families, are trying to return to their
homes across cities, towns and villages they came from. The number of people on this
reverse migration journey must be in millions, maybe all of those 450 million migrants who
now want to return home. No one knows what the correct numbers are.

To begin with, this reverse migration is likely to lead to a sudden reverse shift in urbanization
trends across India. India is approximately 33 percent urban, and well on its way towards the
40 percent mark by 2030. The large number of people returning back home is likely to reduce
the urban population by quite a margin. With many migrants also unwilling to never return to
the cities, or atleast not return with their families, is like to lead to a drop in urban numbers
and an increase in the rural population figures.

This is likely to have two possible fallouts in the urban and industrial centres. The first likely
outcome is the shortage of informal sector workers in the urban areas, many of whom are the
so-called faceless migrants. Migrants have often taken up small and menial jobs in urban
areas, and their return is going to lead to a shortfall in several crucial services they were
providing. Similarly, in the industrial areas, factories are going to face a labour shortage over
the short to medium term. There has been a rush to change labour laws in many states, and
that aspects needs to be studies and understood better. This sudden outflow of workers from
the urban pockets is likely to lead to an increase in wage rates in urban areas. In all
likelihood, this vacuum left by the sudden exodus will eventually be filled in the medium to
long term by another set of migrant workers from some other part of the country. Meanwhile
industries will surely find it difficult to return to full operating capacity in the absence of
skilled and unskilled workers. Who seizes this opportunity first will be interesting subject of
study.

There are going to a few fallouts in rural areas too, but I will touch upon what I consider the
most critical ones. A sudden arrival of a large number of people back home will lead to an
increase in the population of the villages. Every household in rural areas will likely have a
few extra members home who will have to taken care of. The remittance economy is likely to
be hit for some time as jobs loss has been extensive, and in all likelihood the persons
responsible for the remittance money may have returned home. Lesser incomes and more
mouths to feed could cause a food security stress within households in the high poverty
regions of the country, that have also traditionally served as a source for migration. These
will be the states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand Odisha, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh
that could see a rise in the number of households that could face a food security crisis. The
food security crisis could be worse due to the fall in incomes from job loss and lack of
remittances income.

A significant number of migrants who return home may enter the local labour market. This is
likely to depress wage rates in these areas in the upcoming kharif season and beyond. A large
unoccupied work force is likely to flood the local labour market that would not just lower
existing wage rates, but also take work away from the more marginal and needy segments of
the population in those areas. Paddy transplantation for example, traditionally done by
women in eastern India, could be replaced by more able-bodied men at same or lower wages
rates. This could severely impact women-headed households and other vulnerable segments
of the local population. On the other hand, in states like Punjab and Haryana, a drop in
agriculture labour workforce could make farming an expensive proposition. Land owners in
these parts could shift towards mechanization or take up alternate farming practices that
requires less labour.

One other area where I see a significant effect would be for those households who have been
dependent on the National Food Security Act (NFSA). Ration cards issued under the Public
Distribution System allows every eligible individual to access grains and other essentials at
subsidized prices. How these returning migrants access their share of food grains back home
if they had cards issued in cities needs to be seen. An attempt has been made to address this
issue through the one nation-one ration card scheme today, but it would be important to
quickly roll it out. This should in the long run benefit every Indian who is covered by this
scheme.

The other significant group who seem to have been missing from the common discourse have
been the children. The experience that small children are being put through could have severe
psychological and behavioral consequences. Children who may have been studying in
schools in urban areas could end up in a fairly new ‘home’ that they need getting used to first,
apart from the fact that they may have to take admission in local schools. Adjusting may not
be as easy as its sounds.

The kind of reverse migration that we have seen in the last few weeks is not just migration in
its simplest sense. It is no less than displacement of a large segment of a very vulnerable
population, people who may have not just lost their livelihoods but also the dreams that
brought them to the cities in the first place. Trust broken and dreams shattered would surely
not be covered by any numbers or statistics.