Term Paper

Submitted To:
Mr. Ahmed Raihan Sadat
Assistant Professor
Department of Business Administration in Finance & Banking
Faculty of Business Studies
Bangladesh University of Professionals

Submitted By:

Asma Sadia 17221003

Alvi Mubashshir 17221019
Labib Hasnath 17221037
Samin Sakib 17221045
Md Abu Sayed Saikat 17221047

Section: A
Department of Business Administration in Finance & Banking
Faculty of Business Studies
Bangladesh University of Professionals

This Term Paper is completed for the fulfillment of the course

‘Corporate Finance’ under FBS, BUP

Date: 07 May 2020

Book Review: Trade Like A

Stock Market Wizard

 Contents
Chapter 1: An Introduction worth Reading...........................................................4

Chapter 2: What You Need to Know First.............................................................5

Chapter 3: Specific Entry Point Analysis- The SEPA Startegy...........................6

Chapter 4: Value Comes at a Price.........................................................................8

Chapter 5: Trading with the Trend......................................................................10

Chapter 6: Categories, Industry Groups and Catalysts......................................12

Chapter 7: Fundamentals to Focus on..................................................................13

Chapter 8: Assessing Earnings Quality................................................................14

Chapter 9: Follow the Leaders..............................................................................15

 Chapter 1: An Introduction worth Reading

Mark Minervini, U.S. investing champion in 1997, averaged a 220% return per year from 1994 to
2000 for a compounded total return of 33,500%. Yes, we all know that these astonishing figures
coincided with a major bull market, but not even a major trader came anywhere close to his record
during this period. In the book, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve
Superperformance in Stocks in Any Market, Minervini shares his SEPA (Specific Entry Point
Analysis) trading strategy. It’s essentially a trend following/breakout strategy that screens for such
variables as earnings surprises and relative strength and that looks for catalysts driving institutional
interest.
The book starts with a quote from the greatest boxer of all time, Muhammad Ali, “Champions
aren’t made in the gyms. Champions are made from something deep inside them- a desire, a dream,
a vision.” In his book, he tried to deliver the same message to the traders as well, those who are
thriving to achieve superperformance. The fundamental two things that are required are: a desire to
succeed and a winning strategy. He states that conventional wisdom or a college education is not
required here since even he left school at the age of 15. It’s okay to start out unsuccessful and with
a little money. But what really required is unconditional persistence because when one truly
commits to something, he/she has no alternative but success. It took countless hours and years for
him to make his models and trading strategies work in the stock market.
Minervini’s philosophy and approach to trading is to be a conservative aggressive opportunist
meaning his style is to be aggressive in pursuit of potential reward and at the same time be
extremely risk-conscious. His “risk-first” approach drove him to achieve superperformance. In
addition to that, to realize profits from investing in stocks, there are three important decisions: what
to buy, when to buy and when to sell.

4
 Chapter 2: What You Need to Know First

It is true while many people hope to achieve great success in the stock market, only a few actually
do. The reason for this lack of success is simply that most investors haven’t studied enough to
figure out what really works in the stock market. One would just be throwing darts if he/she isn’t
prepared to invest a good portion of time before investing money in the stock market.
It is not true that practice makes one perfect. The fact that one has been doing something for a
while doesn’t mean guaranteed success. It could be that he/she is just reinforcing the wrong
principles. So, it is necessary that one should practice properly, objectively analyze your results to
discover mistakes.
Although paper trading may help to learn one’s way around the market, it can also create a false
sense of security and impede one’s performance and learning process. It is recommended not to do
it any longer than necessary until one has some money to invest. Because there is no substitute for
real-life experience and paper trading doesn’t give the feeling of emotional as well as the financial
pressure. So, it is unlikely that one will make the same decisions as in the practice sessions.
Individual traders have a tremendous advantage over the institutional traders since they have a
greater liquidity and speed, enabling them to be more concentrated in a small list of well-selected
names at even lower risk because an individual can utilize stop-loss protection with little or no
slippage. An individual investor can move quickly and respond in an instant during entry and exit,
taking advantage of the best high-growth situations available. Whereas, the common drawback the
big fund managers face is to pick companies with relatively large amounts of shares outstanding
and this is exact opposite of superperformance stocks. Moreover, the fund managers always try to
make just satisfactory results with no risks as they place a safer bet with a better job security.
Some people have a personality best suited for trading and some prefer a long term investment
approach. Therefore, one has to make decision to choose a particular style, either trader or investor.
Because failing to define trading will lead to experiencing inner conflict at key decision-making
moments.

5
Chapter 3: Specific Entry Point Analysis- The SEPA Startegy
The SEPA strategy focuses on identifying, company-by-company, the precursors of inefficient
pricing in order to distinguish appropriate low risk/high reward entry points. Utilizing SEPA,
stocks displaying the potential for significant price appreciation are identified. The five key
elements of SEPA are described:

i. Trend: Virtually every superperformance phase in big, winning stocks occurred while the stock
price is in a definite price uptrend. In almost every case, the trend is identifiable early.

ii. Fundamentals: Most superperformance phases are driven by an improvement in earnings,

revenue, and margins. This typically materializes before the start of the superperformance phase. In
most cases, earnings and sales are on the table and measurable early on.

iii. Catalyst: Every stock that makes a huge gain has a catalyst that attracts institutional interest.
Approval by the FDA, a newly awarded contract, or even a new CEO can bring life to a previously
dormant stock.

iv. Entry points: It is crucial to catch a meteoric rise at a low-risk entry point. Timing the entry
point is pivotal since there could be profit right away.

v. Exit points: Not all stocks that display superperformance characteristics will result in gains. This
is why it is necessary to establish stop-loss points to force one out of losing positions to protect the
account.

The SEPA ranking process can be summarized as follows:

1. Stocks are screened through a series of "filters" based on fundamental and technical data. Most
stocks in the market are eliminated from this first layer of screening.

2. The remaining stocks are scrutinized and ranked for similarity to a proprietary Leadership Profile
in-line with specific criteria exhibited by historic models. This stage of qualifiers removes most of
the remaining companies, leaving a narrowed list of investment ideas for further review and
evaluation.

3. The final stage is a comprehensive manual review. The narrowed list of candidates are examined
individually and scored according to a "relative prioritizing" ranking process which considers the
following factors: earnings surprise history, EPS and sales acceleration, profit margins, industry
and market position, potential catalysts and so on.
 Chapter 4: Value Comes at a Price
This chapter discusses the concept of P/E ratio that is commonly misinterpreted by the investors
and analysts. Many investors rely too heavily on this popular formula because of a
misunderstanding or a lack of knowledge. But it is true that the historical analyses of
superperformance stocks suggest that P/E ratios rank among the most unimportant statistics of Wall
Street. The common trap where almost everyone falls is buying a cheap stock. In many cases,
stocks with superperformance potential sell at an unreasonable high P/E ratio and this scares away
many amateur investors. When the growth rate of a company is extremely high, the traditional
valuation measures based on P/E are of little help in determining overvaluation. It is important to
concentrate on companies reporting strong earnings as strong earnings growth will make a stock a
better value.
The example of Apollo Group shows us that from 2001 till 2004, the P/E ratio for Apollo was
unchanged despite a 200 percent rally in the stock price. This happened because earnings kept its
pace with the stock’s price appreciation. If a company can deliver strong earnings as fast as its
increase in stock price, an initial high valuation may prove to be very cheap.
 Figure: Apollo Group (APOL) 1999-2004
In 2001, APOL was trading at 60x earnings; by 2004 the price advanced 200 percent, but the P/E
ratio remained at 60x due to earnings growth keeping pace. From 2000 to 2004, Apollo Group’s
stock advanced more than 850 percent. During the same period, the Nasdaq Composite Index was
down 60 percent.
Thus, the bigger point is that P/E ratio doesn’t have much predictive value for finding
superperformance stocks. It is far less important than a company’s potential for earnings growth.
 Chapter 5: Trading with the Trend
In this chapter, Minervini has mentioned the importance of the trend before buying a stock. A stock
should meet certain technical standards to qualify as a buying candidate despite how perfect the
company looks fundamentally. The writer has provided an in-depth view of life cycle of stock and
differentiated into four stages as they start from dormancy into growth to peak and lastly into
decline.

Stage 1 - Neglect Phase:

In the first phase, the stock is in a period of neglect as company’s earnings, sales, and margins may
be lackluster along with its share price. The basic characteristics of this stage are:

 The stock price will move in a sideways fashion with a lack of any sustained price
movement up or down.

 Price oscillates around its 200-day moving average.

 Volume will generally contract and be relatively light compared with the previous volume
during the stage 4 decline.

Stage 2 – Advancing Phase:

Proper second stage will show significant volume as the stock is in strong demand on big up days
and up weeks, and volume will be relatively light during pullbacks. The basic characteristics of this
phase are:

 The stock price is above its 200-day moving average.

 Short-term moving averages are above long-term moving averages

 The stock price is in a clear uptrend, defined by higher highs and higher lows in a staircase
pattern.

 Large up weeks on volume spikes are contrasted by low-volume pullbacks.

Statistics shows that virtually every superperformance stock was in a definite uptrend before
experiencing its big advances. So, a trader should only think about buying a stock while it’s
experiencing a run higher.

Stage 3 – Topping phase:

This is the phase where the stock price is about to reach its peak. At some point, earnings, though
still increasing, are going to rise by a smaller percentage. During this stage, the stock starts
changing hands from strong buyers to weak ones as the weaker players get to know about the stock
because it has made such a dramatic run and captured headlines. The basic characteristics are:

 There is usually a major price break in the stock on an increase in volume. Often, it’s the
largest one-day decline since the beginning of the stage 2 advance.

 The stock price may undercut its 200-day moving average, lose upside momentum, flatten
out, and then roll over into a downtrend.

Stage 4 - Declining Phase:

As the company starts to lose its EPS momentum and earnings slow down, there will be a negative
surprise and enters this phase. The basic characteristics are:

 The 200-day moving average, which was flat or turning downward in stage 3, is now in a
definite downtrend.

 The stock price is near or hitting 52-week new lows.

 Short-term moving averages are below long-term moving averages.

 Chapter 6: Categories, Industry Groups and Catalysts
The writer in this chapter categorized companies into six departments as it is a good way to gain
perspective and organize one’s thoughts about a particular stock. It will help to establish the type of
company one is considering relative to others in the market in order to make a judgment about
where the stock is in its maturation cycle.
Market Leaders:
Market leaders are the companies that dominate their particular industry. Market leaders in the
high-growth stage are almost always going to appear expensive. But that should never stop the
traders from investing. The beauty about ultrafast growers is that they grow so fast that Wall Street
can’t value them very accurately. This can leave a stock inefficiently priced, providing a big
opportunity.
The Top Competitor:
Usually only one, two, or possibly three companies truly lead an industry group. The number two
company in an industry can eventually take market share from the leader and in some cases take
over the number one spot. So, one should always track the top two or three stocks in an industry
group.
The Institutional Favorite:
Institutional favorites are also referred to as quality and mature companies; most likely won’t go
out of business. They’re usually big and sluggish by the time they reach institutional favorite status.
Turnaround Situation:
Big profits can be made in troubled companies that turn around. In purchasing a turnaround
situation, one should look for companies that have very strong results in the most recent two or
three quarters. It’s important to follow the story and ascertain whether the turnaround is running
better than, worse than, or as expected.
Cyclical Stocks:
A cyclical company is one that is sensitive to the economy or to commodity prices. Examples
include auto manufacturers, steel producers etc. Interestingly, cyclical stocks have an inverse P/E
cycle, meaning they generally have a low P/E ratio when they are poised to rally and a high P/E
near the end of their cycle.
Past Leaders and Laggards:
A laggard is a stock that belongs to the same group as the market leader but has inferior price
performance. Laggards usually appear to be relatively cheaper than market leaders, and that attracts
unskilled investors.

Chapter 7: Fundamentals to Focus on

In this chapter the writer discussed about the reasons of when a stock suffers a major break in price
and the fundamentals things to focus on.
Every stock price movement is rooted in one of these two elements: (i) anticipation of news, an
event, an important business change, or (ii) reaction to an unexpected event and a surprise, whether
positive or negative. In our study of past super performance stocks, as well as in the Love and
Reinganum studies, current quarterly earnings showed the highest correlation with big stock price
performance. Three out of four times, the very best performers will show meaningful earnings
increases in the most recent quarter. We should demand not only that the most recent quarter be up
by a meaningful amount but that the past 2 or 3 quarters also show good gains. Really successful
companies generally report earnings increases of 30 to 40% or more during their super
performance phase. The Earnings Maturation Cycle has four stages. The elements of those stages
are value stock, positive earnings surprise, earnings accelerate, estimates revised upwards, loss of
EPS momentum, negative earnings surprise, and estimates revised downwards, stock sold down.
Key Fundamentals
Earnings surprises: When quarterly results are meaningfully better than expected, analysts
must revise their earnings estimates upward. This increases the attention paid to a stock.
Trending analyst estimates: Here we should look for companies for which analysts are raising
estimates.
Trending EPS: To see a steadily improving trend in earnings growth, now we have to Smooth out
quarterly results by using a 2-quarter rolling average over the past 4, 6, or 8 quarters.
Accelerating earnings per share (EPS) and revenues: More than 90% of the biggest stock market
winners showed some form of earnings acceleration before or during their huge price moves.
EPS breakout: Here we need to go back 2 to 4 years or more to a record year and see if current
earnings are breaking out above the previous trend.
Turnaround situations: With turnaround situations, investors should insist that the current earnings
be very strong (+100% or better in the most recent 1 or 2 quarters).
Deceleration is a red flag: A company can be doing great with high-double-digit percentage growth
and then “deteriorate” to mid-double-digit growth (e.g. 60% drop to 30% is material deterioration).

Chapter 8: Assessing Earnings Quality

In this chapter the writer told about how a company can generate earnings in various ways. In other
words, where did the company’s earnings come from? Did the company Improve outcomes as a
result of stronger deals? If sales were strong, was it only because of a single product or one major
customer?
Earnings improvement from cost cutting, plant closures, and other so-called productivity
enhancements walks on short legs. In this case the ideal situation is when a company has higher
sales volume with new and current products in new and existing markets.
To assess the quality of earnings we should look for earnings from core operations and gains from
one-time or extraordinary events must be stripped away. On the other side, if “one-time charges”
keep showing up over and over, one should seriously question the earnings quality. In this case we
should beware of a positive earnings surprise from a lowered estimate.
There are three specific market’s reactions to company’s earnings. They are, what was the initial
response, if the stock sold off, how it recovered quickly and powerfully, how well the stock held its
gains and resist profit taking. For a true super performer, there should definitely not be a huge sell-
off that breaks the whole leg of the stock’s upward move.
By tracking the Company-Issued Guidance, we can ascertain the quality and tendencies of the
company’s guidance. We must take long-term forecasts with a grain of salt. No one, not even
management, can accurately forecast what a company will earn or what its rate of growth will be a
year or two down the road.
If we analyze Inventories and Receivables, we see when inventory grows much faster than sales, it
indicates weakening sales, misjudgment by management of future demand, or both. If receivables
are increasing at a far greater rate than sales or if the trend is accelerating, this could be a warning
that the company is having trouble collecting from its customers.
If a company has hot-selling products, sales should increase as the company expands into new
markets. If a company has a management team that’s on the ball, profit margins should improve as
the company improves productivity.
 Chapter 9: Follow the Leaders
In this chapter the writer told us to concentrate on the facts and follow the leaders. He assures that
the new companies with new products and new technologies will continue to emerge for as long as
any country operates as a free enterprise system.
Most of the big money made in bull markets comes in the early stages, during the first 12 to 18
months. As a bear market is bottoming, leading stocks, the ones that best resisted the decline, will
turn up first and then sprint ahead. Market leaders are stocks that emerge first and hit the 52-week-
high list just as the market is starting to turn up. Few investors buy stocks near new highs, and most
investors focus on the market instead of the individual market leaders and often end up buying late
and owning laggards. If we concentrate on the general market solely for timing our individual stock
purchases, we’re likely to miss many of the really great selections as they emerge at or close to a
market bottom. The true market leaders will show strong relative price strength before they
advance. The stocks that hold up the best and rally into new high ground off the market low during
the first 4 to 8 weeks of a new bull market are the true market leaders, who are capable enough to
advancing significantly. Market leaders tend to stand out best during an intermediate market
correction or in the later stages of a bear market.
In general, 3 or 4 to as many as 8 to 10 industry groups or subgroups lead a new bull market. Our
portfolio should consist of the best companies in the top 4 or 5 sectors. The industry groups with a
healthy number of stocks hitting new highs early in a bull market will often be the leaders.
During the first few months of the new bull market we should see multiple waves of stocks
emerging into new high ground; general market pullbacks will be minimal and probably will be
contained to 3 to 5% from peak to trough. As the broader market indexes start to bottom and begin
the first leg up in a new bull market, we should concentrate on the new 52-week-high list. We
should also keep an eye on stocks that held up well during the market’s decline and are within
striking distance (5 to 15%) of a new 52-week high. Coming off a market low, we should buy in
order of breakout. After an extended rally or bull market, the market’s true leaders have already
made their big moves. The smart money that moved into those stocks ahead of the curve will move
out swiftly at the first hint of slowing growth.