From Technologies to Markets

Cédric Malaquin, Analyst - RF Devices & Technologies, malaquin@yole.fr

Towards ADAS to
Imaging radar for
automotive
market and
technology trends

2019 Report

© 2019
 DRIVING AUTOMATION
SAE level and sensing technology
Feature AD time AD condition Actuation type Sensing technology

5 AD
VPA &
3-7
8
5-6
4

Automated
4
drive helps in 3-7 5-6
AD &
raising the 8 2
number of
sensors. The TJA
full set of
sensors is
3 HP
DM
&
3-7
8
5-6
1
required by
OEM to
reach highly
automated
2 LKA
ACC
&
3-7
8
1-3

Camera
drive.
Radar
1 LKA
ACC
or
1-3
6
1-3
Ultrasonic
BSD Lidar
0 FCW/AEB
LDW
1-3
6
1-3

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 2

 RADARS SENSORS FOR PC/LCV
Some examples

5+
conventional
radar used
for
automated
drive

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 3

 RADAR SENSORS FOR ROBOTIC CARS
Main players

Custom Radars
Much more 4X LRR HR
sensing
3X LRR HR
capability
enabled by
Radar in
robotic car
either by Custom/Standard
prominent Radar mix
custom
Radar or by 3X LRR HR
high number 2X LRR HR 8X standard LRR
5X standard LRR 10X USRR
of standard
Radar

10X standard
Standard Radar

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 4

 RADAR TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
From assisted drive to automated drive
2015 2018 2025 2035

79 GHz / 77 GHz

6 SRR 2 LRR
$25 $50
Radar will
improve in 24 GHz / 77 GHz 79 GHz / 77 GHz 79 GHz / 77 GHz 120°/90m 120°/30m 120°/90m
resolution and 20°/250m 20°/250m
reduce in cost 4 MRR/SRR
and size, 120°/90m 120°/30m 120°/90m
4 MRR/SRR 1 LRR 2 SRR 1 LRR
enabling the 2 SRR 1 LRR $30 $70
$45 $80
creation of a $60 $90
safety cocoon
120°/90m 120°/30m 120°/90m
around the car 120°/90m 120°/90m
120°/50m 20°/250m
20°/250m
20°/250m 120°/90m 120°/30m 120°/90m
120°/50m 120°/90m 120°/90m

Level 0 - Level 1 - Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

Driver assistance Automated drive
| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 5
 FREQUENCY REGULATION
Range Short Range Medium to long
Resolution High Resolution Medium
Interoperability Bad Interoperability Good
Prohibited Application BSD Application ACC, AEB
in Europe Worldwide
24 GHz UWB (21.65-26.65) 77 GHz (76-77)
after 2022 agreement

24 GHz tends
to be replaced
by 79 GHz
which can be
used for both
short and mid
range MOSARIM project
79GHz project
ISM band
24GHz NB (24.05 to 24.25) 79 GHz (77-81) FCC agreement
limitation
07/17
Range Short Range Short to medium
Resolution Poor Resolution High
Interoperability Good Interoperability Good
Application BSD Application AEB pedestrian, PA

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 6

 RADAR REGULATION
Radar frequency allocation

? 76-81 GHz : LRR and SRR ?

UWB 24.25-26.65 GHz ?
76-77 GHz : LRR
Toward the
77/79 GHz
frequency band
UWB 22-29 GHz ?
harmonization. 78-81 GHz : LRR
Unified
frequency band
from short to UWB 22-29 GHz
long range 76-81 GHz : LRR and SRR
adopted in the
US and 76-77 GHz : LRR
suggested ETSI
for CEPT UWB 21.65-26.65 GHz
approval 77-81 GHz : SRR 76-81 GHz : LRR and SRR
76-77 GHz : LRR

Worldwide ISM 24.05-24.25 GHz

< 2015 2018 2020 2022 2024+

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 7
 RADAR EQUATION

Pr Received power
Pt Transmitted power
Gr Reception antenna gain
Gt Transmission antenna gain
λ Wave length
σ Radar cross section
Received power R Target range
is critical for Lsys System losses
target detection.

Radar design, From radar equation, range is a function of

noise, and system • Wave Length
loss • Transmitted power (regulated by frequency band). It is defined by radar chipset power and
management, are
key parameters antenna gain
to enable high • Radar Cross Section (RCS) which represents the reflectivity of targets.
probability of • Received power which depends on antenna gain and receiver sensitivity (phase noise)
detection. Signal over noise ratio must at least be higher than 12 dB to ensure high probability of target
detection and low false alarm rate.
• System losses (packaging, chips back end, …)

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 8

 FREQUENCY BAND PERFORMANCE COMPARISON

Velocity Velocity
resolution resolution
Range Range
resolution resolution

24 GHz UWB improved range

resolutions.
Better performance

77 GHz improved angle and

velocity resolutions. Angle Angle
Higher resolution resolution

frequency and 79 GHz drastically improved range

wider bandwidth resolution. Velocity Velocity
improve radar resolution
Range resolution
Range
performance resolution resolution
Higher frequency (122/140 GHz)
could then further reduce velocity
and angle resolutions while range
resolution will depend on the
available bandwidth.
Angle Angle
resolution resolution

Source: CEPT/Yole
| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 9
 RADAR CROSS SECTION
The higher the frequency / The larger the object.
The better the Radar Cross Section (RSC),
the higher probability of detection.

RCS is a function of several physical parameters

such as :
– Target material
– Target shape
– Target range
Automotive – Back scattered wave frequency.
radar must deal
with low RCS Typical RCS (dBsm) Pedestrian case study
to detect
pedestrians 45

20

-10

Source European Commission - Joint Research Center

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 10

 RADAR SUPPLY CHAIN – OVERALL VIEW
Tier2 Tier1.5 Tier1 OEM
Chip supplier Module supplier Module supplier
Fabless/IDM/Foundry

Well
consolidated
supply chain
from US and
Europe market.
Chinese Willing
ecosystem is to move
emerging with
many new
comers

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 11

 RADAR SUPPLY CHAIN
Main components in a Radar system

NXP and
Infineon
historical
leadership in
mmWave IC
and MCU. TI
and Analog
devices
coming from
digital and
analog
domain start Tx
DAC
to invade RF- MCU DSP
ADC
mmWave VCO
domain.
Digital Analog
Rx

xTal
RF- mmWave
| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 12
 BILL OF MATERIAL
Full system cost

System Plus
consulting
analysis
enable full
system cost
review which
highlight a
MMIC
fraction of
roughly 15%

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 13

 COMMERCIAL RADAR TODAY
RF board

System Plus
consulting
teardown
enable the
analysis of
current
systems

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 14

 AUTOMOTIVE RADAR TREND
Radar size
16000 RACAM

14000
SRR2

12000 ARS-4

Radar size has 10000

been reduced
Size (mm²)

by a factor of ARS510
2-3 depending 8000 SRR520
on the
manufacturer
6000
over the past
10 years.
4000
FR5
LRR4

2000
SRR510

0
2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2020 2021

Dimension (mm²)

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 15

 AUTOMOTIVE RADAR TREND
Radar channel and Resolution

Size above 10000 cm²

The trend is to
move forward
with an
increase of Tx
and Rx antenna
/ channels
leading to an 48 Tx 72 Rx
increase of
antenna
aperture. 12 Tx 16 Rx
However
combining 9 Tx 8 Rx
antenna
aperture with 4 Tx 12 Rx
small size is
challenging 3 Tx 4 Rx

1 Tx 1 Rx

Elevation and Separation capability

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 16

 COMMERCIAL RADAR MMIC
77-79 GHz
Short/Mid/Long range Ultra Short Range TI has developed 2 fully integrated CMOS
based product lines. AWR1243/AWR1443
High performance CMOS 45nm CMOS 45nm are the 2 solutions for multimode sensing.
AWR1642 include a MCU and is intended
Tx 3ch Tx 3ch
Rx 4ch Rx 4ch
for tiny sensor in application that make
VCO, ADC, VCO,BB sense for it (park assist).
1st BB ADC, MCU

generation of Entry level FCCSP 108mm² FCCSP 108mm²

SiGe
CMOS 28nm SiGe-130nm
transceiver is SiGe-180nm CMOS 40nm

currently Tx 3ch Tx 3ch Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch
Tx 3ch
Rx 4ch
replaced by Rx 4ch
VCO,
Rx 4ch
VCO, VCO, VCO,
ADC ADC
more ADC ADC

integrated WLCSP 71mm² WLCSP 55mm² Under development eWLB 59mm²

solutions, SiGe-180nm SiGe-130nm SiGe-180nm
either SiGe
or CMOS Tx 3ch
Rx 4ch Tx 3ch
VCO
technology. Tx 2ch Rx 3ch
VCO, VCO
Rx 4ch
ADC

RCP 3x36mm² eWLB 81mm² eWLB 2x36mm²

Power consumption 2.5W
NXP moved from its historical MR2001 platform
with 2 integrated options in parallel: MR3003 (SiGe)
and TEF810 (CMOS). However MR3003 no longer is
recommended for new design, meaning future
development will happen on the CMOS platform
Power consumption 3W
ST Microelectronic has directly launched a
single integrated transceiver. A 12bit ADC is
included, as well as 2 different VCO for 76-77
GHz and 77-81 GHz bands.
Infineon moved from RRN77/RTN77 platform to
RXS86 platform integrating all features in a single
transceiver. A CMOS platform is under development
for ultra short range application.
| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 17
 SEMI CONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE

• From 2009-2010, 1st generation of SiGe Radar IC Cut Off frequency

Bi-CMOS Radar IC technology has 800
ramped to progressively replace GaAs
technology. Up to 2018, it was used for 700
SiGe Bi-CMOS to be demonstrated
current Rada
• From 2018, 2nd generation of SiGe Bi- 600
4x F operation
Bulk CMOS and CMOS and bulk CMOS Radar IC have SiGe Bi-CMOS
2nd generation been made commercially available. Bulk 500
FDSOI

Ft / Fmax (GHz)
of SiGe Bi- CMOS is similar to 2nd generation SiGe Bulk CMOS Ft (GHz) CMOS
CMOS are the Bi-CMOS in terms of cut off frequency 400
Fmax (GHz) CMOS
competing performance. CMOS with an optimal gate Ft (GHz) SiGe
technology for length (45 to 28nm) and 2nd generation of 300
Fmax (GHz) SiGe
the next SiGe Bi-CMOS (130nm) enable a great
generation margin of 4x the operation frequency (77 200

Radar GHz) FinFET

100
• 22nm FDSOI is also a candidate for Radar
IC. It is used by Arbe Robotics with 0
Global Foundries 22FDX platform 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Technology node (nm)
• 16nm FinFET won’t compete in the Radar
IC field

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 18

 SEMI CONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE
Output power and Temperature stability

• Output power performance logically follow

cut off frequency ranking
2nd gen SiGe Bi-CMOS RXS81
CMOS Radar • CMOS Radar output power is close to 2nd

15
IC need to generation of SiGe Bi-CMOS
overcome

14
output CMOS
power
• Output power stability in temperature (and
stability over

13

Tx power dBm
in frequency) is an important criterion for
the
the automotive industry 1st gen SiGe Bi-CMOS
frequency

12
range to
tackle the
long range • Target would be to get 14 dBm along the

11
detection whole temperature range and frequency
range

10
-45°C RT 125°C

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 19

 RADAR MMIC PACKAGING
eWLB vs FC CSP

Fan Out type of

packaging such as
eWLB has the
advantage in
terms of RF
performance, 0.65W
silicon mm² and 2W
power
consumption.
However, some
level of signal
processing can be
included in the
chip with FC CSP
and it might avoid
having to use an
FPGA or a MCU

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 20

 OVERALL MARKET VEHICLE FORECAST
By SAE level
• SAE level 1 & 2 market penetration Overall vehicle forecast 2015-2025
well established 120

100
• SAE level 3 market penetration has
just begun. German brand likely to 80

Vehicle in Mu
push this level, but many brands
willing to skip that level and go 60
Automated straight forward to level 4
drive 40
penetration
will be • No level 4 expected until 2025 20
incremental.
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
• Robotic vehicles already on the Robotic vehicle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
road with high automation level, SAE level 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
but in restricted area SAE level 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1
SAE level 3 0 0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.7 5.8 7.6
SAE level 2 8.2 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.4 15.1 16.5 18.5 20.8 22.8 25.2
SAE level 1 24.0 26.9 28.4 29.9 33.1 35.4 37.9 40.2 42.5 45.3 47.4
SAE level 0 59.3 59.1 58.2 55.7 51.8 49.0 46.5 43.8 41.1 37.7 35.3

Sources Marklines, Decision Conseil, Internal

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 21
 RADAR MODULE FORECAST
Split per frequency
Radar module forecast 2015-2025 (Mu)
• 24 GHz radar module demand still
growing up to 2020 due to
attractive price point. Since 24 200
GHz will be restricted to Narrow
band operation and 79 GHz AEB+AD level2+/level3
Radar market module start to roll, we expect 24
150
growth GHz module to start decreasing

Radar module (Mu)

acceleration from 2020
with AD level
2+/level3. 100

77-79 GHz • 77 GHz radar module growth is Classical ADAS+AEB

radar module mainly pulled by AEB adoption
sales will be
50
larger than
24 GHz from • 79 GHz radar module to takeover
2020 from 2020 onward thanks to
better resolution demand from 0
CAGR
OEM as well as competitive price. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2015-
2025
79 GHz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8 12.3 25.3 39.3 55.1 70.9 0.0%
77 GHz 11.3 15.8 21.2 27.8 36.6 46.3 60.5 76.6 95.5 113.3 123.2 27.0%
24 GHz 13.4 20.8 27.8 35.1 43.7 46.6 46.0 40.5 31.7 20.1 12.7 -0.6%
Overall Forecast 2018 30 41 56 74 84 93 104

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 22

 RADAR CHIP FORECAST
Split per frequency
• 24 GHz Radar chip market is modestly Radar chip forecast 2015 - 2025 (Mu)
growing up to 2020. Few new products 300
have been released by the Tier1 on this Single chip solution
frequency band. 24 GHz market leaders
such as Hella will start to introduce 77 250
GHz products from 2021, new short
Overall range product release from Continental
MMIC are based on 77/79 GHz frequency band. 200
demand is Bosch already produce 100% of 77 GHz Multichip solution

Chip sales (Mu)

growing at a
150
18.7% CAGR
with a clear • As a consequence, demand for 77 GHz
trend to Radar MMIC is booming, moreover as 100
integrate 77 GHz radar module often require a
multichip solution (from 2 up to 7).
higher From 2022 we expect more single chip
frequency solution to be implemented which
50

products. results in lower MMIC demand.

0
CAGR
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2015-
• 79 GHz radar MMIC is expected to 2025

phase in from 2020 as a support 79 GHz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8 12.3 25.3 39.3 55.1 70.9 0.0%

technology for short range high 77 GHz

24 GHz
26.5 40.2 58.3 80.7 106.7 131.3 153.0 166.3 173.4 180.6 180.1 21.1%

resolution Radar
23.0 37.2 49.5 61.6 74.6 78.6 75.2 64.3 52.4 36.9 25.0 0.8%
Forecast 2018 72.2 99.1 134.2 168.8 183.8 191.6 199.7

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 23

 FUTURE CHALLENGE FOR RADAR
4 steps toward super sensor
Classification, Labelling

Ensure no miss
4D
3D Discriminate nearby objects
Measure height
Future radar
development
toward Image processing
automated AI/Deep learning
drive
Availability
Interference
mitigation
High resolution

Elevation capability

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 24

 RADAR TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION: ROAD TO HIGH RESOLUTION

Digital Beam Forming and MIMO technologies

Icon Ultres/Phoenix

Channel number / Radar aperture

Imaging
ARS 5th gen
4D UHR
X,Y,Z,Doppler,depth
Leveraging 4D HR
AI/Deep Learning
military and LRR 4th gen Ultra high resolution
telecom X,Y,Z,Doppler,depth
technologies, High resolution
advanced radar 3D X,Y,Z,Doppler,depth
technology fully
support up to X,Y,Z,Doppler
level 4 autonomy 2D ADAS
with high improved
resolution and
radar imaging
coming to the WARLORD TM
X,Y,Doppler
market with low
C-SWAP. Analog Beam Forming and metamaterials
2D ADAS
Basic

X,Y,Doppler

Resolution, classification and object tracking capability

C-SWAP: Cost Size Weight and Power

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 25
 RADAR IN A NUTSHELL

Radar offer
interesting
capabilities for
autonomous
driving and
will be a
robust sensor
in the sensor
mix

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 26

YOLE REPORT COLLECTION – SOME AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 27

 YOLE 2.0 – 4 DIVISIONS
Cédric Malaquin, Analyst - RF Devices & Technologies, malaquin@yole.fr

Life Sciences Semiconductor Semiconductor

& Healthcare & Software & Software
o Microfluidic o Package & Assembly & Substrates
o BioMEMS o Semiconductor Manufacturing
o Inkjet Printing o Memory
o Solid-State Medical Imaging & BioPhotonics o Software & Computing
o Bio Technologies
Life Photonics,
Sciences & Sensing
Healthcare
& Display

Power Photonics,
& Wireless Sensing & Display
o RF Devices & Technology o Solid-State Lighting & Display
o Compound Semiconductors & Emerging Materials Power & Wireless o MEMS, Sensors & Actuators
o Power Electronics o Imaging
o Batteries & Energy Management o Photonics & Optoelectronics

| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019 28