Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Requests to Host Special
ASEAN Defence Ministers’
Meeting Plus in Hawaii
Carlyle A. Thayer
June 1, 2020
Diplomatic sources are reporting that the Pentagon has proposed a Special ADMM+
meeting in Hawaii. We request your assessment of this U.S initiative.
ANSWER: Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the leaders of the Association of South
East Asian Nations (ASEAN) agreed to a tentative schedule of meetings for 2020. Since
COVID-19 some meetings have been cancelled or held by video conference. For
example, ASEAN’s 36th Summit was initially scheduled for 6-9 April. It was postponed
to June. Finally, it was rescheduled as a Special ASEAN Summit on Coronavirus Disease
2019 on 14 April and held by video conference. Fitting in a Special Meeting of the
ADMM+ at this stage may prove difficult.
According to the ASEAN calendar of meetings for 2020, the ASEAN Defence Ministers’
Meeting (ADMM) and ADMM-Plus were scheduled for 1-4 November in Hanoi.
Diplomatic sources report that Vietnam has moved up the ADMM and ADMM-Plus
meetings to 23-26 October and the Viet Nam International Defence Expo 2020 to 25-
27 October. This will be a special occasion as it marks the tenth anniversary of the
ADMM-Plus. Vietnam hosted the inaugural ADMM-Plus meeting in Hanoi in October
2010.
The ADMM-Plus comprises the ten ASEAN ministers of defence and their counterparts
from Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the United
States.
The reported request by the United States to host a Special ADMM-Plus meeting is
unprecedented. ASEAN has never convened a special ADMM-Plus meeting before.
Vietnam, as ASEAN Chair, will have to canvass other ASEAN members to see if there is
a consensus to hold such a special meeting and when it could be fitted into ASEAN’s
busy work schedule.
At least three issues need to be canvassed by Vietnam as ASEAN Chair.
First, why is the United States requesting a Special ADMM-Plus meeting at this time in
light of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions between Washington and Beijing?
What is on the agenda, and what is the pressing regional security issue that the U.S.
wants to bring up? It is highly unlikely that ASEAN members would agree to a meeting
where the U.S. criticizes China for its mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.
 2

The track record of the Trump Administration’s attendance at ASEAN meetings is not
a good one, not only has President Trump failed to attend high-level meetings but the
U.S. cancelled the ASEAN-United States Special Summit scheduled for earlier this year.
The ostensible reason was the coronavirus; but many analysts believe that the
proposed agenda for the Special Summit lacked focus and that President Trump just
wanted the publicity to highlight his “international leadership.” Some ASEAN leaders
may question why they should do the U.S. a favour.
The U.S. request for a Special ADMM-Plus meeting begs the question how many
ASEAN members (and Plus members for that matter) believe such a gathering would
be worth the time and effort. The ball is in the U.S. court to demonstrate a compelling
reason to bring seventeen defence ministers half way around the world to Hawaii.
Second, is it possible to find a date that all eighteen ADMM-Plus defence ministers can
attend? Or to put it another way, what is the minimum number of defence ministers
to make the special meeting viable?
Third, is it safe, from a public health point of view, to hold a Special ADMM-Plus
meeting in Hawaii? The United States will host the Rim of the Pacific exercises
(RIMPAC) in August. This year, however, because of COVID-19, all activities are
scheduled at sea in the waters around the Hawaiian islands. No activities will be held
on shore for public health reasons at the request of the Hawaiian state government.
Public health considerations related to the coronavirus in Hawaii could improve during
the second half of 2020. Currently, Hawaii has one of the lowest incidents of COVID-
19 of the fifty American states. All persons arriving in Hawaii have to undergo fourteen
days of quarantine. This public health requirement is due to expire this month and
state officials say it is likely to be extended. In sum, it is possible that Hawaii could be
a suitable venue in the final quarter of 2020 if public health considerations continue
to improve.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Requests to Host Special ASEAN Defence
Ministers’ Meeting Plus in Hawaii,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 1,
2020. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.