Tercera Entrega Granja Juan-Producción

SUPUESTOS
1. Se van a tomar que cada mes tiene 4 semanas en las cuales se van a laborar, para un total de 48 semanas en el año.
2. La demanda para el mes se distribuye en partes iguales para cada semana.
3. Lo anterior debido a que la investigcaión realizada por la tesis, se puede observar que el Lead Team de alistamiento toma 6
El boom de materiales tanto para las alas de pollo como para las pechugas se divide en dos partes:
1. Mezcla para marinar la carne.
2. Empaquetado.
CANTIDAD
LEAD TIME
TAMAÑO LOTE
PECHUGA DE POLLO
MEZCLA PARA MARINAR EMPAQUETADO
AJO ACEITE SAL PIMIENTA BANDEJA VINIPEL ETIQUETA
2 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Res Cerdo Pollo
Proporción por Proporción

Mes Mes Mes
demanda por demanda
Jan-15 8.77% 0.0877 Jan-15 5.22% Jan-15

Feb-15 15.05% 0.1505 Feb-15 3.81% Feb-15
Mar-15 6.74% 0.0674 Mar-15 9.30% Mar-15
Apr-15 12.17% 0.1217 Apr-15 12.27% Apr-15
May-15 7.75% 0.0775 May-15 4.98% May-15
Jun-15 8.62% 0.0862 Jun-15 6.31% Jun-15
Jul-15 8.13% 0.0813 Jul-15 6.31% Jul-15
Aug-15 7.63% 0.0763 Aug-15 12.04% Aug-15
Sep-15 7.14% 0.0714 Sep-15 11.60% Sep-15
Oct-15 6.17% 0.0665 Oct-15 8.43% Oct-15
Nov-15 6.16% 0.0616 Nov-15 11.81% Nov-15
Dec-15 5.67% 0.0567 Dec-15 7.92% Dec-15
Jan-16 12.57% Jan-16 2.56% Jan-16
Feb-16 11.15% Feb-16 4.90% Feb-15
Mar-16 2.48% Mar-16 10.63% Mar-15
Apr-16 6.37% Apr-16 11.98% Apr-15
May-16 17.35% May-16 4.32% May-15
Jun-16 3.54% Jun-16 13.40% Jun-15
Jul-16 16.11% Jul-16 11.49% Jul-15
Aug-16 3.54% Aug-16 7.26% Aug-15
Sep-16 6.37% Sep-16 7.04% Sep-15
Oct-16 9.73% Oct-16 7.26% Oct-15
Nov-16 5.13% Nov-16 13.22% Nov-15
Dec-16 5.66% Dec-16 5.92% Dec-15
Jan-17 4.47% Jan-17 14.96% Jan-17
Feb-17 5.92% Feb-17 2.98% Feb-17
Mar-17 2.16% Mar-17 7.90% Mar-17
Apr-17 9.81% Apr-17 15.80% Apr-17
May-17 14.43% May-17 7.18% May-17
Jun-17 10.25% Jun-17 7.74% Jun-17
Jul-17 13.42% Jul-17 2.84% Jul-17
Aug-17 14.14% Aug-17 4.78% Aug-17
Sep-17 5.05% Sep-17 4.80% Sep-17
Oct-17 9.24% Oct-17 14.41% Oct-17
Nov-17 4.33% Nov-17 12.36% Nov-17
Dec-17 6.78% Dec-17 4.24% Dec-17
Jan-18 3.05% Jan-18 1.24% Jan-18
Feb-18 9.62% Feb-18 12.91% Feb-18
Mar-18 5.60% Mar-18 4.49% Mar-18
Apr-18 11.45% Apr-18 14.31% Apr-18
May-18 11.94% May-18 3.87% May-18
Jun-18 11.08% Jun-18 14.10% Jun-18
Jul-18 1.95% Jul-18 6.88% Jul-18
Aug-18 9.99% Aug-18 6.74% Aug-18
Sep-18 11.21% Sep-18 12.54% Sep-18
Oct-18 12.06% Oct-18 6.74% Oct-18
Nov-18 3.41% Nov-18 5.87% Nov-18
Dec-18 8.65% Dec-18 10.32% Dec-18
Proporción
por
demanda
3.47%
4.63%
6.02%
6.94%
8.10%
8.80%
9.26%
9.95% 0.0048
9.72%
10.88%
11.57%
10.65%
7.13%
7.72%
8.46%
8.61%
8.17%
8.61%
8.91%
7.57%
8.02%
8.54%
8.91%
9.35%
7.29%
7.76%
7.52%
7.99%
8.23%
8.34%
8.58%
8.46%
8.93%
9.05%
9.05%
8.81%
7.05%
7.23%
7.96%
8.14%
8.32%
8.14%
8.50%
8.50%
8.68%
8.95%
9.04%
9.49%
PRODUCCIÓN EN TONELADAS CARNE
Colombia D. Meta La Granja de Juan
AÑO
100% 35% 15%
2015 942,285 329,799.750 49,469.963
2016 910,052 318,518.200 47,777.730
2017 905,025 316,758.750 47,513.813
2018 935,025 327,258.750 49,088.813
Proporción
PRODUCCIÓN
Mes por PERIODO
CARNE PRODUCCIÓN CARN
demanda
9000
Jan-15 8.77% 1 4339.7503605688 8000
Feb-15 15.05% 2 7447.3710948642 7000
Mar-15 6.74% 3 3331.8733656621
6000
Apr-15 12.17% 4 6019.5453520798
5000
May-15 7.75% 5 3835.8118631155
Jun-15 8.62% 6 4264.1595859508 4000
Jul-15 8.13% 7 4020.5893121817 3000

Aug-15 7.63% 8 3777.0190384126 2000
Sep-15 7.14% 9 3533.4487646435 1000
Oct-15 6.17% 10 3052.4226708744 0
1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 1
Nov-15 6.16% 11 3046.3082171053 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 29 3
Dec-15 5.67% 12 2802.7379433362
Jan-16 12.57% 13 6003.9271327434
Feb-16 11.15% 14 5327.428300885
Mar-16 2.48% 15 1183.8729557522
Apr-16 6.37% 16 3044.2447433628
May-16 17.35% 17 8287.1106902655
Jun-16 3.54% 18 1691.247079646
Jul-16 16.11% 19 7695.1742123894
Aug-16 3.54% 20 1691.247079646
Sep-16 6.37% 21 3044.2447433628
Oct-16 9.73% 22 4650.9294690266
Nov-16 5.13% 23 2452.3082654867
Dec-16 5.66% 24 2705.9953274336
Jan-17 4.47% 25 2125.4375
Feb-17 5.92% 26 2811.0625
Mar-17 2.16% 27 1028.4375
Apr-17 9.81% 28 4662.25
May-17 14.43% 29 6856.25
Jun-17 10.25% 30 4867.9375
Jul-17 13.42% 31 6376.3125
Aug-17 14.14% 32 6719.125
Sep-17 5.05% 33 2399.6875
Oct-17 9.24% 34 4388
Nov-17 4.33% 35 2056.875
Dec-17 6.78% 36 3222.4375
Jan-18 3.05% 37 1494.787225944
Feb-18 9.62% 38 4723.527633983
Mar-18 5.60% 39 2750.4084957369
Apr-18 11.45% 40 5620.3999695493
May-18 11.94% 41 5859.5659257004
Jun-18 11.08% 42 5441.0255024361
Jul-18 1.95% 43 956.66382460414
Aug-18 9.99% 44 4902.9021010962
Sep-18 11.21% 45 5500.8169914738
Oct-18 12.06% 46 5919.3574147381
Nov-18 3.41% 47 1674.1616930573
Dec-18 8.65% 48 4245.1957216809
PRODUCCIÓN EN TONE
ranja de Juan Colombia
AÑO
15% 100%
49,469.963 2015 329,000.000
47,777.730 2016 414,354.872
47,513.813 2017 453,485.710
49,088.813 2018 513,297.688
Proporción
PRODUCCIÓN CARNE Mes por PERIODO
demanda
Jan-15 5.22% 1
Feb-15 3.81% 2
Mar-15 9.30% 3
Apr-15 12.27% 4
May-15 4.98% 5
Jun-15 6.31% 6
Jul-15 6.31% 7
Aug-15 12.04% 8
Sep-15 11.60% 9
Oct-15 8.43% 10
3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 29 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Nov-15 11.81% 11
Dec-15 7.92% 12
Jan-16 2.56% 13
Feb-16 4.90% 14
Mar-16 10.63% 15
Apr-16 11.98% 16
May-16 4.32% 17
Jun-16 13.40% 18
Jul-16 11.49% 19
Aug-16 7.26% 20
Sep-16 7.04% 21
Oct-16 7.26% 22
Nov-16 13.22% 23
Dec-16 5.92% 24
Jan-17 14.96% 25
Feb-17 2.98% 26
Mar-17 7.90% 27
Apr-17 15.80% 28
May-17 7.18% 29
Jun-17 7.74% 30
Jul-17 2.84% 31
Aug-17 4.78% 32
Sep-17 4.80% 33
Oct-17 14.41% 34
Nov-17 12.36% 35
Dec-17 4.24% 36
Jan-18 1.24% 37
Feb-18 12.91% 38
Mar-18 4.49% 39
Apr-18 14.31% 40
May-18 3.87% 41
Jun-18 14.10% 42
Jul-18 6.88% 43
Aug-18 6.74% 44
Sep-18 12.54% 45
Oct-18 6.74% 46
Nov-18 5.87% 47
Dec-18 10.32% 48
PRODUCCIÓN EN TONELADAS CERDO
D. Meta La Granja de Juan
35% 15%
115,150 17,273
145,024 21,754
158,720 23,808
179,654 26,948
PRODUCCIÓN
CERDO PRODUCCIÓN CERDO
4500
901.424900354
4000
657.788810721
1606.62664666 3500
2119.14082634 3000
860.421054624 2500
1090.52138699 2000
1090.52138699 1500
2079.64215085
1000
2003.16631829
500
1455.32709897
2040.15139298 0
1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
1367.76802623
557.615961671
1065.46648975
2313.24389822
2606.37705309
940.245146328
2915.28674157
2499.07704528
1579.99913038
1531.70276811
1579.99913038
2876.51963108
1288.09778415
3561.93926724
710.665805653
1880.87302974
3762.73935578
1709.30842405
1842.37075059
675.569239093
1138.6000475
1142.5174446
3430.73146285
2942.14966823
1010.53527967
334.75759347
3479.65957699
1211.14734924
3854.95301919
1042.93852877
3798.88228643
1854.41535643
1815.95868372
3378.54481839
1815.95868372
1581.72632028
2780.25343926
PRODUCCIÓN EN TONELADAS POLLO
Colombia D. Meta La Granja de Juan
AÑO
100% 35% 15%
2015 1,424,388 498,536 74,780
2016 1,478,924 517,623 77,644
2017 1,563,569 547,249 82,087
2018 1,629,648 570,377 85,557
Proporción
PRODUCCIÓN
Mes por PERIODO
POLLO PRODUCCIÓN
demanda
Jan-15 3.47% 10000
1 2596.540625
Feb-15 4.63% 9000
2 3462.05416667
Mar-15 6.02% 8000
3 4500.67041667
Apr-15 6.94% 4 5193.08125 7000
May-15 8.10% 5 6058.59479167 6000
Jun-15 8.80% 6 6577.90291667 5000

Jul-15 9.26% 7 6924.10833333 4000
Aug-15 9.95% 8 7443.41645833 3000
Sep-15 9.72% 9 7270.31375 2000
Oct-15 10.88% 10 8135.82729167 1000
1 3 5 7
Nov-15 11.57% 11 8655.13541667 0
4 4 4 4 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Dec-15 10.65% 12 7962.72458333
Jan-16 7.13% 13 5533.61318486
Feb-16 7.72% 14 5994.74761693
Mar-16 8.46% 15 6571.16565702
Apr-16 8.61% 16 6686.44926503
May-16 8.17% 17 6340.59844098
Jun-16 8.61% 18 6686.44926503
Jul-16 8.91% 19 6917.01648107
Aug-16 7.57% 20 5879.46400891
Sep-16 8.02% 21 6225.31483296
Oct-16 8.54% 22 6628.80746102
Nov-16 8.91% 23 6917.01648107
Dec-16 9.35% 24 7262.86730512
Jan-17 7.29% 25 5980.51362515
Feb-17 7.76% 26 6366.35321387
Mar-17 7.52% 27 6173.43341951
Apr-17 7.99% 28 6559.27300823
May-17 8.23% 29 6752.19280259
Jun-17 8.34% 30 6848.65269976
Jul-17 8.58% 31 7041.57249412
Aug-17 8.46% 32 6945.11259694
Sep-17 8.93% 33 7330.95218566
Oct-17 9.05% 34 7427.41208284
Nov-17 9.05% 35 7427.41208284
Dec-17 8.81% 36 7234.49228848
Jan-18 7.05% 37 6033.82329114
Feb-18 7.23% 38 6188.53670886
Mar-18 7.96% 39 6807.39037975
Apr-18 8.14% 40 6962.10379747
May-18 8.32% 41 7116.81721519
Jun-18 8.14% 42 6962.10379747
Jul-18 8.50% 43 7271.53063291
Aug-18 8.50% 44 7271.53063291
Sep-18 8.68% 45 7426.24405063
Oct-18 8.95% 46 7658.31417722
Nov-18 9.04% 47 7735.67088608
Dec-18 9.49% 48 8122.45443038
ranja de Juan
15%
74,780
77,644
82,087
85,557
PRODUCCIÓN POLLO
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Desviación
Pronostico
Produccion Error de absoluta
Periodo t N=3 Movil
mensual
simple pronóstico media
(MAD)
0
1 4,339.75
2 7,447.37
3 3,331.87
4 6,019.55 5,039.66 979.88 979.88
5 3,835.81 5,599.60 -1,763.78 1,763.78
6 4,264.16 4,395.74 -131.58 131.58
7 4,020.59 4,706.51 -685.92 685.92
8 3,777.02 4,040.19 -263.17 263.17
9 3,533.45 4,020.59 -487.14 487.14
10 3,052.42 P 3,777.02 -724.60 724.60
11
12
3,046.31
2,802.74
R 3,454.30
3,210.73
-407.99
-407.99
407.99
407.99
13 6,003.93 O 2,967.16 3,036.77 3,036.77
14
15
5,327.43
1,183.87
M 3,950.99
4,711.36
1,376.44
-3,527.49
1,376.44
3,527.49
16 3,044.24 E 4,171.74 -1,127.50 1,127.50
17
18
8,287.11
1,691.25
D 3,185.18
4,171.74
5,101.93
-2,480.50
5,101.93
2,480.50
19
20
7,695.17 I 4,340.87 3,354.31 3,354.31
1,691.25 5,891.18 -4,199.93 4,199.93
21 3,044.24 O 3,692.56 -648.31 648.31
22 4,650.93 4,143.56 507.37 507.37
23 2,452.31 3,128.81 -676.50 676.50
24 2,706.00 M 3,382.49 -676.50 676.50
25
26
2,125.44
2,811.06
O 3,269.74
2,427.91
-1,144.31
383.15
1,144.31
383.15
27
28
1,028.44 V 2,547.50 -1,519.06 1,519.06
4,662.25 1,988.31 2,673.94 2,673.94
29 6,856.25 I 2,833.92 4,022.33 4,022.33
30
31
4,867.94
6,376.31
L 4,182.31
5,462.15
685.63
914.17
685.63
914.17
32 6,719.13 6,033.50 685.63 685.63
33
34
2,399.69
4,388.00
S 5,987.79
5,165.04
-3,588.10
-777.04
3,588.10
777.04
35
36
2,056.88 I 4,502.27 -2,445.40 2,445.40
3,222.44 2,948.19 274.25 274.25
37 1,494.79 M 3,222.44 -1,727.65 1,727.65
P
L
I
M
38
39
4,723.53
2,750.41
P 2,258.03
3,146.92
2,465.49
-396.51
2,465.49
396.51
40 5,620.40 L 2,989.57 2,630.83 2,630.83
41
42
5,859.57
5,441.03
E 4,364.78
4,743.46
1,494.79
697.57
1,494.79
697.57
43 956.66 5,640.33 -4,683.67 4,683.67
44 4,902.90 4,085.75 817.15 817.15
45 5,500.82 N 3,766.86 1,733.95 1,733.95
46
47
5,919.36
1,674.16
= 3,786.79
5,441.03
2,132.56
-3,766.86
2,132.56
3,766.86
48 4,245.20 3 4,364.78 -119.58 119.58
49 3,946.24
50 3,946.24
51 3,946.24
52 3,946.24
53 3,946.24
54 3,946.24
55 3,946.24
56 3,946.24
57 3,946.24
58 3,946.24
59 3,946.24
60 3,946.24
193,851.39 228,496.21 -2,408.95 74,345.20
190,467.19 189,788.72
Error
Error porcentual Pronostico movil
Error de
cuadrático absoluto ponderado w1: 0,10
w2:0,4 w3:0,50 pronóstico
medio (MSE) medio PROMEDIO
(MAPE) MOVIL
PONDERAD
O
960,165.62 0.16 5078.86015683362 -39.20

3,110,936.61 0.46 W1 5087.25913179117 512.34
17,314.33 0.03 4658.91140895586 -263.17
0.1
470,481.15 0.17 4268.35907342954 438.15
69,257.33 0.07 4099.53967678268 -59.35
237,305.91 0.14 W2 3923.16120267403 97.43
525,039.90 0.24 3679.59092890493 97.43
0.4
166,454.70 0.13 3317.29274513583 137.00
166,454.70 0.15 3097.46805336673 113.26
9,221,977.23 0.51 W3 2925.13452559763 42.02
1,894,579.37 0.26 4427.68956541667 -476.69846769
0.5
12,443,196.31 2.98 5345.55879787344 -634.19433889
1,271,251.86 0.37 3323.30051150442 848.442284956
26,029,676.36 0.62 2528.4143840708 656.767615929
6,152,859.00 1.47 5479.6405380531 -1307.8977416
11,251,373.49 0.44 4464.89229026549 -124.02478584
17,639,414.09 2.48 5352.79700707965 538.380320354
420,307.65 0.21 4092.81793274336 -400.26180885
257,428.50 0.11 2968.13862477876 1175.41672035
457,650.67 0.28 3712.28733982301 -583.48024248
457,650.67 0.25 3390.95039469026 -8.4562353982
1,309,438.18 0.54 2799.01391681416 470.730437168
146,803.00 0.14 2390.34770752212 37.565990118
2,307,546.15 1.48 2526.30578274336 21.1926597345
7,149,941.75 0.57 1851.1875 137.125
16,179,165.44 0.59 3023.60625 -189.68958333
470,081.64 0.14 5395.86875 -1213.55625
835,700.69 0.14 5642.69375 -180.54791667
470,081.64 0.10 5820.95625 212.54375
12,874,491.51 1.50 6396.88125 -409.08958333
603,793.75 0.18 4525.125 639.916666667
5,979,960.78 1.19 3825.7875 676.483333333
75,213.06 0.09 3023.60625 -75.41875
2,984,775.47 1.16 2872.76875 349.66875
6,078,662.60 0.52 2242.05611297199 15.9771290093
157,219.35 0.14 3281.92245736906 -135.00500406
6,921,242.90 0.47 3414.09402405603 -424.51957217
2,234,388.85 0.26 4382.71614646772 -17.937446711
486,600.24 0.13 5452.98380024361 -709.52566991
21,936,733.21 4.90 5626.37911845311 13.9513474421
667,734.69 0.17 3240.69870584653 845.053045067
3,006,593.64 0.32 3378.21913063337 388.644678745
4,547,825.41 0.36 4807.23571863581 -1020.4414129
14,189,262.96 2.25 5650.29571406821 -209.27021163
14,300.09 0.03 3754.90551157125 609.873188185
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
3,384.20
204,848,332.49 28.85 221,158.10 593.63
Error
Desviación Error Suavizacion
porcentual
absoluta cuadrático exponencial simple
absoluto
media (MAD) medio (MSE) SUAVIZACIÓ alpha= 0,25
medio (MAPE)
N
EXPONENCIA
L SIMPLE 193,851.00
146473.187590142
111716.733466323
39.20 1,536.26 0.01 84620.5184411575
512.34 262,489.69 0.01 α 64970.2751688881
263.17 69,257.33 0.01 49686.659342445
0.25
438.15 191,972.38 0.01 38331.0344033214
59.35 3,522.75 0.01 29753.4231305365
97.43 9,492.24 0.01 23259.3221075055
97.43 9,492.24 0.01 18327.85377179
137.00 18,770.12 0.01 14508.9959965611
113.26 12,827.49 0.01 11643.3240516971
42.02 1,765.83 0.01 9433.17752460689
476.698467688 227241.429096 0.00864197531 8575.864926641
634.194338885 402202.459474 0.00864197531 7763.75577020199
848.442284956 719854.310901 0.00864197531 6118.78506658955
656.767615929 431343.701333 0.00864197531 5350.14998578287
1307.89774159 1710596.50246 0.00864197531 6084.39016190352
124.024785841 15382.1475028 0.00864197531 4986.10439133915
538.380320354 289853.369344 0.00864197531 5663.3718466017
400.26180885 160209.515624 0.00864197531 4670.34065486278
1175.41672035 1381604.46649 0.00864197531 4263.8166769878
583.480242478 340449.193362 0.00864197531 4360.59487499748
8.45623539823 71.5079171103 0.00864197531 3883.52322261979
470.730437168 221587.144477 0.00864197531 3589.14124882325
37.565990118 1411.20361355 0.00864197531 3223.21531161744
21.1926597345 449.128826623 0.00864197531 3120.17710871308
137.125 18803.265625 0.00864197531 2597.24220653481
189.689583333 35982.1380252 0.00864197531 3113.49415490111
1213.55625 1472718.77191 0.00864197531 4049.18311617583
180.547916667 32597.5502127 0.00864197531 4253.87171213187
212.54375 45174.8456641 0.00864197531 4784.4819090989
409.089583333 167354.287192 0.00864197531 5268.14268182418
639.916666667 409493.340278 0.00864197531 4551.02888636813
676.483333333 457629.700278 0.00864197531 4510.2716647761
75.41875 5687.98785156 0.00864197531 3896.92249858207
349.66875 122268.234727 0.00864197531 3728.30124893656
15.9771290093 255.268651381 0.00864197531 3169.92274318841
135.00500406 18226.3511213 0.00864197531 3558.32396588704
424.519572168 180216.867154 0.00864197531 3356.34509834951
17.9374467113 321.751994522 0.00864197531 3922.35881614946
709.525669915 503426.676268 0.00864197531 4406.66059353719
13.9513474421 194.640095451 0.00864197531 4665.25182076191
845.053045067 714114.648977 0.00864197531 3738.10482172246
388.644678745 151044.686317 0.00864197531 4029.3041415659
1020.44141291 1041300.67718 0.00864197531 4397.18235404288
209.270211632 43794.0214766 0.00864197531 4777.72611921669
609.873188185 371945.305667 0.00864197531 4001.83501267683
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
4,062.68
17,557.09 12,275,933.42 0.39 1,001,756.79
DEM
250000
Error porcentual 200000

Desviación absoluta Error cuadrático
Error de pronóstico absoluto medio 150000
media (MAD) medio (MSE)
(MAPE)
100000
50000
-189,511.25 189,511.25 35,914,513,739.90 43.67 0
enero
febrero
marzo
-139,025.82 139,025.82 19,328,177,652.18 18.67
-108,384.86 108,384.86 11,747,277,899.04 32.53
-78,600.97 78,600.97 6,178,112,970.55 13.06
-61,134.46 61,134.46 3,737,422,603.68 15.94
-45,422.50 45,422.50 2,063,203,484.13 10.65
Proporción
-34,310.45 34,310.45 1,177,206,642.35 8.53
producción
-25,976.40 25,976.40 674,773,569.56 6.88 Produccion
-19,725.87 19,725.87 389,110,079.14 5.58 Pronostico N
-15,275.43 15,275.43 233,338,795.32 5.00 Pronostico m
Suavizacion
-11,462.69 11,462.69 131,393,211.13 3.76
-8,840.59 8,840.59 78,155,962.74 3.15
DEM
-3,429.25 3,429.25 11,759,758.25 0.57
60000
-3,248.44 3,248.44 10,552,340.51 0.61 50000
-6,579.88 6,579.88 43,294,857.85 5.56 40000
30000
-3,074.54 3,074.54 9,452,798.20 1.01 20000
2,936.96 2,936.96 8,625,738.18 0.35 10000
0
-4,393.14 4,393.14 19,299,706.14 2.60
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
2,709.07 2,709.07 7,339,059.30 0.35
-3,972.12 3,972.12 15,777,775.16 2.35
-1,626.10 1,626.10 2,644,187.91 0.53
387.11 387.11 149,856.31 0.08
-1,908.29 1,908.29 3,641,557.78 0.78 Proporción
-1,177.53 1,177.53 1,386,571.94 0.44 producción
-1,463.70 1,463.70 2,142,428.66 0.69 Produccion
Pronostico
-412.15 412.15 169,869.94 0.15
Pronostico
-2,091.74 2,091.74 4,375,374.59 2.03 Suavizacion
2,065.01 2,065.01 4,264,257.19 0.44
3,742.76 3,742.76 14,008,221.32 0.55 DEMA
818.75 818.75 670,358.74 0.17 60000
2,122.44 2,122.44 4,504,754.90 0.33 50000
40000
1,934.64 1,934.64 3,742,843.89 0.29 30000
-2,868.46 2,868.46 8,228,035.13 1.20 20000
-163.03 163.03 26,578.42 0.04 10000
0
enero
febrero
marzo
-2,453.40 2,453.40 6,019,155.19 1.19

abril
-674.48 674.48 454,930.01 0.21

-2,233.51 2,233.51 4,988,584.89 1.49
Proporción
producción
10000
0
febrero
enero
marzo
abril
1,553.60 1,553.60 2,413,688.16 0.33
-807.92 807.92 652,727.41 0.29
2,264.05 2,264.05 5,125,944.46 0.40 Proporción
1,937.21 1,937.21 3,752,771.39 0.33 producción
Produccion
1,034.36 1,034.36 1,069,910.76 0.19
Pronostico
-3,708.59 3,708.59 13,753,624.93 3.88 Pronostico
1,164.80 1,164.80 1,356,752.70 0.24 Suavizacion
1,471.51 1,471.51 2,165,350.07 0.27
1,522.18 1,522.18 2,317,016.92 0.26
-3,103.56 3,103.56 9,632,112.15 1.85
243.36 243.36 59,224.43 0.06
-322,231.37 378,047.02 14,892,536,042.39 104.67

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS
250000 DEMAN
200000 60000
150000 50000
40000
100000 30000
20000
50000 10000
0 0
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
abril
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
diciembre
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
abril
2015
Proporción por demanda Proporción por d

producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN producción anua
Produccion mensual Produccion men
Pronostico N=3 Movil simple Pronostico N=3
Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Pronostico movi
Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25 Suavizacion exp
DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS DEMAND

60000
60000
50000
50000
40000 40000
30000 30000
20000 20000
10000 10000
0 0
mayo
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
enero
febrero
junio
marzo
mayo
julio
agosto
septiembre
octubre
diciembre
noviembre
abril
2017

Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50 Pronostico mov
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
septiembre
diciembre
octubre
noviembre
abril
2019
Proporción por demanda

producción anual LA GRANJA DE JUAN
10000
0
febrero
mayo
junio
enero
marzo
julio
agosto
septiembre
diciembre
abril
octubre
noviembre
2019
Produccion mensual
Pronostico N=3 Movil simple
Pronostico movil ponderado w1: 0,10 w2:0,4 w3:0,50
Suavizacion exponencial simple alpha= 0,25
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
agosto
julio
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
diciembre
abril
2016

Produccion mensual
mayo
agosto
febrero
marzo
junio
julio
noviembre
septiembre
octubre
diciembre
abril
2018

Produccion mensual
Desviación
Pronostico
Periodo t N=3 Movil
mensual
(MAD)
0
1 901.42
2 657.79
3 1,606.63
4 2,119.14 1,055.28 1,063.86 1,063.86
5 860.42 1,461.19 -600.76 600.76
6 1,090.52 1,528.73 -438.21 438.21
7 1,090.52 1,356.69 -266.17 266.17
8 2,079.64 1,013.82 1,065.82 1,065.82
9 2,003.17 1,420.23 582.94 582.94
10 1,455.33 P 1,724.44 -269.12 269.12
11
12
2,040.15
1,367.77
R 1,846.05
1,832.88
194.11
-465.11
194.11
465.11
13 557.62 O 1,621.08 -1,063.47 1,063.47
14
15
1,065.47
2,313.24
M 1,321.85
996.95
-256.38
1,316.29
256.38
1,316.29
16 2,606.38 E 1,312.11 1,294.27 1,294.27
17
18
940.25
2,915.29
D 1,995.03
1,953.29
-1,054.78
962.00
1,054.78
962.00
19
20
2,499.08 I 2,153.97 345.11 345.11
1,580.00 2,118.20 -538.20 538.20
21 1,531.70 O 2,331.45 -799.75 799.75
22 1,580.00 1,870.26 -290.26 290.26
23 2,876.52 1,563.90 1,312.62 1,312.62
24 1,288.10 M 1,996.07 -707.98 707.98
25
26
3,561.94
710.67
O 1,914.87
2,575.52
1,647.07
-1,864.85
1,647.07
1,864.85
27
28
1,880.87 V 1,853.57 27.31 27.31
3,762.74 2,051.16 1,711.58 1,711.58
29 1,709.31 I 2,118.09 -408.78 408.78
30
31
1,842.37
675.57
L 2,450.97
2,438.14
-608.60
-1,762.57
608.60
1,762.57
32 1,138.60 1,409.08 -270.48 270.48
33
34
1,142.52
3,430.73
S 1,218.85
985.56
-76.33
2,445.17
76.33
2,445.17
35
36
2,942.15 I 1,903.95 1,038.20 1,038.20
1,010.54 2,505.13 -1,494.60 1,494.60
37 334.76 M 2,461.14 -2,126.38 2,126.38
P
L
I
M
38
39
3,479.66
1,211.15
P 1,429.15
1,608.32
2,050.51
-397.17
2,050.51
397.17
40 3,854.95 L 1,675.19 2,179.76 2,179.76
41
42
1,042.94
3,798.88
E 2,848.59
2,036.35
-1,805.65
1,762.54
1,805.65
1,762.54
43 1,854.42 2,898.92 -1,044.51 1,044.51
44 1,815.96 2,232.08 -416.12 416.12
45 3,378.54 N 2,489.75 888.79 888.79
46
47
1,815.96
1,581.73
= 2,349.64
2,336.82
-533.68
-755.09
533.68
755.09
48 2,780.25 3 2,258.74 521.51 521.51
49 2,059.31
50 2,059.31
51 2,059.31
52 2,059.31
53 2,059.31
54 2,059.31
55 2,059.31
56 2,059.31
57 2,059.31
58 2,059.31
59 2,059.31
60 2,059.31
89,783.33 109,234.81 2,094.43 42,724.47
87,578.91 87,489.98
Error
Error de
(MAPE) MOVIL
PONDERAD
O
1,131,799.60 0.50 1156.57133765144 -101.29

360,917.83 0.70 W1 1767.99995290577 -306.81
192,026.36 0.40 1438.52952251495 90.20
0.1
70,848.08 0.24 1101.34319798014 255.35
1,135,974.14 0.51 1067.51135375539 -53.69
339,816.72 0.29 W2 1585.08176891921 -164.85
72,423.52 0.18 1942.49215818261 -218.05
0.4
37,677.22 0.10 1736.89429188441 109.15
216,330.64 0.34 1802.52316790735 30.36
1,130,960.38 1.91 W3 1645.47728020568 -24.40
65,730.01 0.24 1029.93033062627 291.914796335
0.5
1,732,629.21 0.57 892.556432165147 104.393727051
1,675,130.35 0.50 1638.57014117572 -326.46135796
1,112,569.29 1.12 2335.0327348074 -340.00358779
925,440.23 0.33 1743.99778422186 209.290914991
119,099.12 0.14 2094.37913462317 59.5905123714
289,663.38 0.34 2509.67773389911 -391.47475617
639,602.52 0.52 2081.15905745773 250.295248284
84,251.17 0.18 1647.75874073577 222.500907188
1,722,969.40 0.46 1560.68058547218 3.21975748437
501,230.10 0.55 2223.42974450276 -227.35590131
2,712,829.98 0.46 1952.65665754447 -37.784475675
3,477,677.04 2.62 2583.86071038836 -8.3418162315
745.59 0.01 1908.91838813798 -55.350769123
2,929,506.06 0.45 1580.89676385321 470.26260369
167,104.61 0.24 2704.7854703514 -586.69273996
370,397.43 0.33 2547.8372573116 -96.863654122
3,106,653.96 2.61 1981.1826804921 456.956829648
73,160.92 0.24 1245.66376218656 163.41904239
5,826.15 0.07 1023.76479444482 195.081884615
5,978,852.51 0.71 1094.25566520883 -108.69342148
1,077,859.27 0.35 2286.23271401743 -382.28306237
2,233,821.92 1.48 2957.61916371704 -452.48630516
4,521,497.05 6.35 2025.20065341388 435.938150172
4,204,599.72 0.59 865.807875426949 563.339638364
157,744.12 0.33 1974.78635385174 -366.46887047
4,751,374.78 0.57 2030.91326476619 -355.72509153
3,260,365.13 1.73 2759.90140699059 88.6852414842
3,106,533.11 0.46 2184.56520698473 -148.21890792
1,090,999.58 0.56 2702.11185664151 196.812754821
173,155.89 0.23 2551.05444566155 -318.97572179
789,952.48 0.26 2029.63371307473 460.118395785
284,815.34 0.29 2601.09741832644 -251.45779881
570,167.57 0.48 2440.99313758953 -104.17240898
271,972.85 0.19 1855.10111546936 403.642158662
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
2,204.41
58,874,702.35 31.75 111,343.39 -367.38
Error
porcentual
absoluto
medio (MAPE)
N
EXPONENCIA
L SIMPLE 193,851.00
145613.606225088
109374.651871497
101.29 10,259.91 0.01 82432.6455652863
306.81 94,135.15 0.01 α 62354.2693805505
90.20 8,136.04 0.01 46980.807299069
0.25
255.35 65,204.25 0.01 35508.2358210498
53.69 2,882.62 0.01 26903.8072125354
164.85 27,176.66 0.01 20697.7659471131
218.05 47,545.31 0.01 16024.1160399073
109.15 11,913.92 0.01 12381.9188046724
30.36 921.63 0.01 9796.47695174993
24.40 595.12 0.01 7689.29972037038
291.914796335 85214.2483195 0.00864197531 5906.37878069544
104.393727051 10898.0502477 0.00864197531 4696.15070795844
326.461357963 106577.018243 0.00864197531 4100.42400552367
340.003587789 115602.439709 0.00864197531 3726.91226741521
209.290914991 43802.6870976 0.00864197531 3030.24548714341
59.5905123714 3551.02916469 0.00864197531 3001.50580074905
391.474756175 153252.484722 0.00864197531 2875.89861188174
250.295248284 62647.7113134 0.00864197531 2551.92374150591
222.500907188 49506.6536994 0.00864197531 2296.86849815764
3.21975748437 10.3668382581 0.00864197531 2117.65115621283
227.355901312 51690.7058615 0.00864197531 2307.36827492968
37.7844756752 1427.66660205 0.00864197531 2052.55065223453
8.34181623146 69.5858980394 0.00864197531 2429.89780598625
55.3507691235 3063.70764256 0.00864197531 2000.08980590294
470.26260369 221146.916429 0.00864197531 1970.28561186114
586.692739961 344208.371122 0.00864197531 2418.39904784176
96.8636541221 9382.56748989 0.00864197531 2241.12639189361
456.956829648 208809.544162 0.00864197531 2141.43748156724
163.41904239 26705.7834157 0.00864197531 1774.97042094863
195.081884615 38056.9417048 0.00864197531 1615.87782758592
108.693421478 11814.2598727 0.00864197531 1497.53773183966
382.283062366 146140.339772 0.00864197531 1980.83616459339
452.486305155 204743.856353 0.00864197531 2221.1645405026
435.938150172 190042.070775 0.00864197531 1918.50722529511
563.339638364 317351.548152 0.00864197531 1522.56981733877
366.468870473 134299.433026 0.00864197531 2011.84225725237
355.725091531 126540.340744 0.00864197531 1811.66853025025
88.6852414842 7865.07205712 0.00864197531 2322.48965248455
148.218907917 21968.8446642 0.00864197531 2002.60187155609
196.812754821 38735.2604602 0.00864197531 2451.67197527431
318.975721786 101745.511089 0.00864197531 2302.35782056218
460.118395785 211708.938139 0.00864197531 2180.75803635239
251.457798814 63231.0245842 0.00864197531 2480.20473186162
104.172408978 10851.8907922 0.00864197531 2314.14321982697
403.642158662 162926.992249 0.00864197531 2131.03899494084
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
2,293.34
10,488.43 3,554,360.48 0.39 883,534.07
DEM
250000

(MAPE)
100000
50000
-192,949.58 192,949.58 37,229,538,531.13 214.05 0
enero
febrero
marzo
-144,955.82 144,955.82 21,012,189,002.27 220.37
-107,768.03 107,768.03 11,613,947,260.86 67.08
-80,313.50 80,313.50 6,450,259,043.45 37.90
-61,493.85 61,493.85 3,781,493,381.93 71.47
-45,890.29 45,890.29 2,105,918,341.09 42.08
Proporción
-34,417.71 34,417.71 1,184,579,066.86 31.56
producción
-24,824.17 24,824.17 616,239,171.01 11.94 Produccion
-18,694.60 18,694.60 349,488,055.28 9.33 Pronostico N
-14,568.79 14,568.79 212,249,611.21 10.01 Pronostico m
Suavizacion
-10,341.77 10,341.77 106,952,153.20 5.07
-8,428.71 8,428.71 71,043,134.15 6.16
DEM
-7,131.68 7,131.68 50,860,913.23 12.79
60000
-4,840.91 4,840.91 23,434,431.81 4.54 50000
-2,382.91 2,382.91 5,678,244.86 1.03 40000
30000
-1,494.05 1,494.05 2,232,176.30 0.57 20000
-2,786.67 2,786.67 7,765,513.64 2.96 10000
0
-114.96 114.96 13,215.51 0.04
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
-502.43 502.43 252,434.65 0.20
-1,295.90 1,295.90 1,679,355.47 0.82
-1,020.22 1,020.22 1,040,850.83 0.67
-716.87 716.87 513,901.69 0.45
758.87 758.87 575,881.36 0.26 Proporción
-1,019.27 1,019.27 1,038,912.33 0.79 producción
1,509.39 1,509.39 2,278,253.99 0.42 Produccion
Pronostico
-1,719.23 1,719.23 2,955,758.67 2.42
Pronostico
-119.22 119.22 14,212.64 0.06 Suavizacion
1,792.45 1,792.45 3,212,890.42 0.48
-709.09 709.09 502,809.51 0.41 DEMA
-398.76 398.76 159,006.06 0.22 60000
-1,465.87 1,465.87 2,148,769.70 2.17 50000
40000
-636.37 636.37 404,967.25 0.56 30000
-473.36 473.36 224,070.05 0.41 20000
1,933.19 1,933.19 3,737,238.00 0.56 10000
0
enero
febrero
marzo
961.31 961.31 924,123.65 0.33

abril
-1,210.63 1,210.63 1,465,623.21 1.20

-1,583.75 1,583.75 2,508,262.90 4.73
Proporción
producción
10000
0
febrero
enero
marzo
abril
1,957.09 1,957.09 3,830,200.33 0.56
-800.69 800.69 641,112.34 0.66
2,043.28 2,043.28 4,175,011.50 0.53 Proporción
-1,279.55 1,279.55 1,637,251.08 1.23 producción
Produccion
1,796.28 1,796.28 3,226,623.33 0.47
Pronostico
-597.26 597.26 356,715.47 0.32 Pronostico
-486.40 486.40 236,584.12 0.27 Suavizacion
1,197.79 1,197.79 1,434,693.18 0.35
-664.25 664.25 441,222.81 0.37
-732.42 732.42 536,434.51 0.46
649.21 649.21 421,479.39 0.23
-320,557.21 349,754.96 15,010,781,104.01 270.09

250000 DEMAN
200000 60000
150000 50000
40000
100000 30000
20000
50000 10000
0 0
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
abril
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
diciembre
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
abril
2015


60000
60000
50000
50000
40000 40000
30000 30000
20000 20000
10000 10000
0 0
mayo
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
enero
febrero
junio
marzo
mayo
julio
agosto
septiembre
octubre
diciembre
noviembre
abril
2017

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
septiembre
diciembre
octubre
noviembre
abril
2019

10000
0
febrero
mayo
junio
enero
marzo
julio
agosto
septiembre
diciembre
abril
octubre
noviembre
2019
Produccion mensual
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
agosto
julio
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
diciembre
abril
2016

Produccion mensual
mayo
agosto
febrero
marzo
junio
julio
noviembre
septiembre
octubre
diciembre
abril
2018

Produccion mensual
Desviación
Pronostico
Periodo t N=3 Movil
mensual
(MAD)
0
1 2,596.54
2 3,462.05
3 4,500.67
4 5,193.08 3,519.76 1,673.33 1,673.33
5 6,058.59 4,385.27 1,673.33 1,673.33
6 6,577.90 5,250.78 1,327.12 1,327.12
7 6,924.11 5,943.19 980.92 980.92
8 7,443.42 6,520.20 923.21 923.21
9 7,270.31 6,981.81 288.50 288.50
10 8,135.83 P 7,212.61 923.21 923.21
11
12
8,655.14
7,962.72
R 7,616.52
8,020.43
1,038.62
-57.70
1,038.62
57.70
13 5,533.61 O 8,251.23 -2,717.62 2,717.62
14
15
5,994.75
6,571.17
M 7,383.82
6,497.03
-1,389.08
74.14
1,389.08
74.14
16 6,686.45 E 6,033.18 653.27 653.27
17
18
6,340.60
6,686.45
D 6,417.45
6,532.74
-76.86
153.71
76.86
153.71
19
20
6,917.02 I 6,571.17 345.85 345.85
5,879.46 6,648.02 -768.56 768.56
21 6,225.31 O 6,494.31 -269.00 269.00
22 6,628.81 6,340.60 288.21 288.21
23 6,917.02 6,244.53 672.49 672.49
24 7,262.87 M 6,590.38 672.49 672.49
25
26
5,980.51
6,366.35
O 6,936.23
6,720.13
-955.72
-353.78
955.72
353.78
27
28
6,173.43 V 6,536.58 -363.14 363.14
6,559.27 6,173.43 385.84 385.84
29 6,752.19 I 6,366.35 385.84 385.84
30
31
6,848.65
7,041.57
L 6,494.97
6,720.04
353.69
321.53
353.69
321.53
32 6,945.11 6,880.81 64.31 64.31
33
34
7,330.95
7,427.41
S 6,945.11
7,105.88
385.84
321.53
385.84
321.53
35
36
7,427.41 I 7,234.49 192.92 192.92
7,234.49 7,395.26 -160.77 160.77
37 6,033.82 M 7,363.11 -1,329.28 1,329.28
P
L
I
M
38
39
6,188.54
6,807.39
P 6,898.58
6,485.62
-710.04
321.77
710.04
321.77
40 6,962.10 L 6,343.25 618.85 618.85
41
42
7,116.82
6,962.10
E 6,652.68
6,962.10
464.14
0.00
464.14
0.00
43 7,271.53 7,013.67 257.86 257.86
44 7,271.53 7,116.82 154.71 154.71
45 7,426.24 N 7,168.39 257.86 257.86
46
47
7,658.31
7,735.67
= 7,323.10
7,452.03
335.21
283.64
335.21
283.64
48 8,122.45 3 7,606.74 515.71 515.71
49 7,838.81
50 7,838.81
51 7,838.81
52 7,838.81
53 7,838.81
54 7,838.81
55 7,838.81
56 7,838.81
57 7,838.81
58 7,838.81
59 7,838.81
60 7,838.81
320,067.77 395,416.15 8,158.12 26,461.18
312,146.45 312,492.73
Error
Error de
(MAPE) MOVIL
PONDERAD
O
2,800,020.51 0.32 3894.8109375 -375.06

2,800,020.51 0.28 W1 4743.01420833333 -357.75
1,761,249.52 0.20 5556.5969375 -305.81
0.1
962,194.92 0.14 6231.6975 -288.50
852,324.91 0.12 6699.0748125 -178.87
83,234.85 0.04 W2 7149.14185416667 -167.33
852,324.91 0.11 7304.93429166667 -92.32
0.4
1,078,723.71 0.12 7720.38079166667 -103.86
3,329.39 0.01 8308.93 -288.50
7,385,436.25 0.49 W3 8256.9991875 -5.77
1,929,534.30 0.23 6817.40996742762 566.414427524
0.5
5,496.32 0.01 6007.09154073868 489.936920966
426,766.63 0.10 6236.84319376392 -203.6677075
5,906.80 0.01 6571.16565701559 -153.71147736
23,627.22 0.02 6501.9954922049 30.7422954714
119,612.79 0.05 6548.10893541203 23.0567216036
590,680.46 0.13 6767.14779064588 -119.12639495
72,358.36 0.04 6375.1835233853 119.126394952
83,064.44 0.04 6156.14466815145 184.453772829
452,239.72 0.10 6392.47606458797 -147.94729696
452,239.72 0.09 6732.56270824053 -142.18311656
913,394.58 0.16 7061.12099109131 -124.89057535
125,159.76 0.06 6587.10538272935 133.027087717
131,874.02 0.06 6301.66878750402 234.909260541
148,872.19 0.06 6231.30935781434 -57.875938308
148,872.19 0.06 6385.645193302 -19.291979436
125,093.99 0.05 6617.14894653349 -122.18253643
103,383.46 0.05 6781.13077173913 -61.091268214
4,135.34 0.01 6935.46660722679 -54.660608402
148,872.19 0.05 6974.05056609871 -28.937969154
103,383.46 0.04 7147.67838102233 -41.799288778
37,218.05 0.03 7340.5981753819 -106.1058869
25,845.87 0.02 7417.76609312573 -22.507309342
1,766,991.15 0.22 7330.95218566392 32.1532990599
504,155.64 0.11 6653.44976924765 245.126118241
103,537.83 0.05 6231.24689973449 254.37052976
382,979.87 0.09 6482.49220253164 -139.24207595
215,426.17 0.07 6822.86172151899 -170.18475949
0.00 0.00 7023.98916455696 -61.885367089
66,489.56 0.04 7023.98916455696 -10.314227848
23,936.24 0.02 7132.28855696203 -15.471341772
66,489.56 0.03 7240.58794936709 -72.199594937
112,367.36 0.04 7348.88734177215 -25.78556962
80,452.37 0.04 7526.8077721519 -74.778151899
265,958.24 0.06 7673.78551898734 -67.042481013
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
7,921.33
28,345,275.34 4.08 398,299.66 -1,893.35
Error
porcentual
absoluto
medio (MAPE)
N
EXPONENCIA
L SIMPLE 193,851.00
146037.38515625
110393.552408854
375.06 140,666.90 0.01 83920.3319108073
357.75 127,981.91 0.01 α 64238.5192456055
305.81 93,522.68 0.01 49693.5381321208
0.25
288.50 83,234.85 0.01 38914.6293282572
178.87 31,995.48 0.01 30916.9990795263
167.33 28,000.21 0.01 25048.603424228
92.32 8,523.25 0.01 20604.031005671
103.86 10,787.24 0.01 17486.9800771699
288.50 83,234.85 0.01 15279.0189120441
5.77 33.29 0.01 13449.9453298664
566.414427524 320825.303707 0.00864197531 11470.8622936136
489.936920966 240038.186526 0.00864197531 10101.8336244418
203.667707498 41480.5350775 0.00864197531 9219.16663258528
153.711477357 23627.2182713 0.00864197531 8585.98729069731
30.7422954714 945.088730852 0.00864197531 8024.64007826797
23.0567216036 531.612411104 0.00864197531 7690.09237495933
119.126394952 14191.0979742 0.00864197531 7496.82340148676
119.126394952 14191.0979742 0.00864197531 7092.48355334224
184.453772829 34023.1943107 0.00864197531 6875.69137324722
147.947296956 21888.4026766 0.00864197531 6813.97039519154
142.183116555 20216.0386334 0.00864197531 6839.73191666091
124.890575353 15597.6558119 0.00864197531 6945.51576377631
133.027087717 17696.2060664 0.00864197531 6704.26522911895
234.909260541 55182.360688 0.00864197531 6619.78722530573
57.8759383079 3349.62423502 0.00864197531 6508.19877385591
19.291979436 372.180470557 0.00864197531 6520.96733244834
122.182536428 14928.5722079 0.00864197531 6578.77369998255
61.0912682139 3732.14305198 0.00864197531 6646.24344992816
54.6606084019 2987.78211086 0.00864197531 6745.07571097726
28.9379691539 837.406058754 0.00864197531 6795.08493246914
41.7992887779 1747.18054234 0.00864197531 6929.05174576783
106.105886898 11258.4592344 0.00864197531 7053.6418300368
22.507309342 506.578973814 0.00864197531 7147.08439323853
32.1532990599 1033.83464044 0.00864197531 7168.93636704993
245.126118241 60086.8138441 0.00864197531 6885.15809807226
254.37052976 64704.3664105 0.00864197531 6711.00275076938
139.242075949 19388.3557147 0.00864197531 6735.09965801375
170.184759494 28962.8523639 0.00864197531 6791.8506928774
61.8853670886 3829.79865969 0.00864197531 6873.09232345552
10.3142278481 106.383296103 0.00864197531 6895.34519195873
15.4713417722 239.362416231 0.00864197531 6989.39155219689
72.1995949367 5212.78150902 0.00864197531 7059.92632237552
25.7855696203 664.895600641 0.00864197531 7151.50575443987
74.7781518987 5591.77200139 0.00864197531 7278.2078601337
67.0424810127 4494.69426033 0.00864197531 7392.57361661926
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
7,575.04
6,519.98 1,662,450.51 0.39 1,156,072.12
DEM
250000

(MAPE)
100000
50000
-191,254.46 191,254.46 36,578,268,230.82 73.66 0
enero
febrero
marzo
-142,575.33 142,575.33 20,327,725,006.79 41.18
-105,892.88 105,892.88 11,213,302,456.61 23.53
-78,727.25 78,727.25 6,197,979,996.61 15.16
-58,179.92 58,179.92 3,384,903,609.47 9.60
-43,115.64 43,115.64 1,858,958,000.03 6.55
Proporción
-31,990.52 31,990.52 1,023,393,433.53 4.62
producción
-23,473.58 23,473.58 551,009,081.07 3.15 Produccion
-17,778.29 17,778.29 316,067,583.74 2.45 Pronostico N
-12,468.20 12,468.20 155,456,103.85 1.53 Pronostico m
Suavizacion
-8,831.84 8,831.84 78,001,480.11 1.02
-7,316.29 7,316.29 53,528,162.70 0.92
DEM
-7,916.33 7,916.33 62,668,314.63 1.43
60000
-5,476.11 5,476.11 29,987,831.95 0.91 50000
-3,530.67 3,530.67 12,465,616.30 0.54 40000
30000
-2,532.72 2,532.72 6,414,657.26 0.38 20000
-2,245.39 2,245.39 5,041,771.09 0.35 10000
0
-1,338.19 1,338.19 1,790,754.65 0.20
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
-773.08 773.08 597,646.34 0.11
-1,617.36 1,617.36 2,615,851.40 0.28
-867.17 867.17 751,981.59 0.14
-246.88 246.88 60,951.67 0.04
103.05 103.05 10,618.50 0.01 Proporción
423.14 423.14 179,043.56 0.06 producción
-965.00 965.00 931,229.13 0.16 Produccion
Pronostico
-337.91 337.91 114,184.53 0.05
Pronostico
-446.35 446.35 199,231.72 0.07 Suavizacion
51.07 51.07 2,608.58 0.01
231.23 231.23 53,465.22 0.03 DEMA
269.88 269.88 72,834.67 0.04 60000
395.33 395.33 156,285.05 0.06 50000
40000
200.04 200.04 40,014.76 0.03 30000
535.87 535.87 287,153.71 0.07 20000
498.36 498.36 248,363.03 0.07 10000
0
enero
febrero
marzo
373.77 373.77 139,704.20 0.05

abril
87.41 87.41 7,640.14 0.01

-1,135.11 1,135.11 1,288,481.70 0.19
Proporción
producción
10000
0
febrero
enero
marzo
abril
-696.62 696.62 485,281.36 0.11
96.39 96.39 9,290.58 0.01
227.00 227.00 51,530.88 0.03 Proporción
324.97 324.97 105,603.24 0.05 producción
Produccion
89.01 89.01 7,923.04 0.01
Pronostico
376.19 376.19 141,515.49 0.05 Pronostico
282.14 282.14 79,602.46 0.04 Suavizacion
366.32 366.32 134,188.68 0.05
506.81 506.81 256,854.78 0.07
457.46 457.46 209,272.42 0.06
729.88 729.88 532,726.00 0.09
-305,381.15 318,631.74 13,747,437,475.40 50.88

250000 DEMAN
200000 60000
150000 50000
40000
100000 30000
20000
50000 10000
0 0
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
abril
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
diciembre
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
abril
2015


60000
60000
50000
50000
40000 40000
30000 30000
20000 20000
10000 10000
0 0
mayo
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
enero
febrero
junio
marzo
mayo
julio
agosto
septiembre
octubre
diciembre
noviembre
abril
2017

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
enero
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
julio
agosto
septiembre
diciembre
octubre
noviembre
abril
2019

10000
0
febrero
mayo
junio
enero
marzo
julio
agosto
septiembre
diciembre
abril
octubre
noviembre
2019
Produccion mensual
febrero
marzo
mayo
junio
agosto
julio
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
diciembre
abril
2016

Produccion mensual
mayo
agosto
febrero
marzo
junio
julio
noviembre
septiembre
octubre
diciembre
abril
2018

Produccion mensual
Demanda con Tendencia
REGRESIÓN LINEAL
PRONÓSTICO 𝑒_𝑡= 𝑥_𝑡 - 𝑥_𝑡
AÑO MES PERIODO DEMANDA
DEMANDA
Enero 1 2,597 38 2559.1208
Febrero 2 3,462 76 3386.4768
Marzo 3 4,501 113 4387.8328
Abril 4 5,193 151 5042.1888
Mayo 5 6,059 188 5870.5448
Junio 6 6,578 226 6351.9008
2015
Julio 7 6,924 264 6660.2568
Agosto 8 7,443 301 7141.6128
Septiembre 9 7,270 339 6930.9688
Octubre 10 8,136 377 7759.3248
Noviembre 11 8,655 414 8240.6808
Diciembre 12 7,963 452 7511.0368
Enero 13 5,534 490 5044.3928
Febrero 14 5,995 527 5467.7488
Marzo 15 6,571 565 6006.1048
Abril 16 6,686 603 6083.4608
Mayo 17 6,341 640 5700.8168
Junio 18 6,686 678 6008.1728
2016
Julio 19 6,917 715 6201.5288
Agosto 20 5,879 753 5125.8848
Septiembre 21 6,225 791 5434.2408
Octubre 22 6,629 828 5800.5968
Noviembre 23 6,917 866 6050.9528
Diciembre 24 7,263 904 6359.3088
Enero 25 5,981 941 5039.6648
Febrero 26 6,366 979 5387.0208
Marzo 27 6,173 1,017 5156.3768
Abril 28 6,559 1,054 5504.7328
Mayo 29 6,752 1,092 5660.0888
Junio 30 6,849 1,130 5719.4448
2017
Julio 31 7,042 1,167 5874.8008
Agosto 32 6,945 1,205 5740.1568
Septiembre 33 7,331 1,242 6088.5128
Octubre 34 7,427 1,280 6146.8688
Noviembre 35 7,427 1,318 6109.2248
Diciembre 36 7,234 1,355 5878.5808
Enero 37 6,034 1,393 4640.9368
Febrero 38 6,189 1,431 4758.2928
Marzo 39 6,807 1,468 5338.6488
Abril 40 6,962 1,506 5456.0048
Mayo 41 7,117 1,544 5573.3608
Junio 42 6,962 1,581 5380.7168
2018
2018
Julio 43 7,272 1,619 5653.0728
Agosto 44 7,272 1,657 5615.4288
Septiembre 45 7,426 1,694 5731.7848
Octubre 46 7,658 1,732 5926.1408
Noviembre 47 7,736 1,770 5966.4968
Diciembre 48 8,122 1,807 6314.8528
Enero 49 1,845
Febrero 50 1,882
Marzo 51 1,920
Abril 52 1,958
Mayo 53 1,995
Junio 54 2,033
2019
Julio 55 2,071
Agosto 56 2,108
Septiembre 57 2,146
Octubre 58 2,184
Noviembre 59 2,221
Diciembre 60 2,259
PERIODO -DEMANDA
10,000
9,000
= 𝑥_𝑡 - 𝑥_𝑡
8,000
7,000 f(x) = 37.6840534085974 x + 5744.80319148936
R² = 0.235209937291003
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
DEMANDA vs PRONÓSTICO DEMANDA

10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
DEMANDA PRONÓSTICO DEMANDA

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE CARNE DE POLLO
α 0.25 m 37.6864276
β 0.35 b 5744.76112
PER. PRONOSTICA PERIODO DEMANDA ST Gt Ft
0 0 5744.76112 37.6864276
1 1 2596.54063 4985.97082 -241.080428 5782.44755
2 2 3462.05417 4424.18133 -353.328597 4744.89039
3 3 4500.67042 4178.31 -315.72 4070.85274
4 4 5193.08125 4195.21 -199.30 3862.58761
5 5 6058.59479 4511.58 -18.82 3995.90966
6 6 6577.90292 5014.05 163.63 4492.76454
7 7 6924.10833 5614.29 316.45 5177.68233
8 8 7443.41646 6308.90 448.81 5930.73431
9 9 7270.31375 6885.86 493.66 6757.71001
10 10 8135.82729 7568.60 559.83 7379.51894
11 11 8655.13542 8260.11 605.92 8128.431
12 12 7962.72458 8640.20 526.88 8866.02871
13 13 5533.61318 8258.72 208.95 9167.08518
14 14 5994.74762 7849.44 -7.43 8467.67088
15 15 6571.16566 7524.30 -118.63 7842.01298
16 16 6686.44927 7225.87 -181.56 7405.67492
17 17 6340.59844 6868.38 -243.13 7044.31003
18 18 6686.44927 6640.55 -237.78 6625.2489
19 19 6917.01648 6531.33 -192.78 6402.77079
20 20 5879.46401 6223.78 -232.95 6338.5505
21 21 6225.31483 6049.45 -212.43 5990.82711
22 22 6628.80746 6034.96 -143.15 5837.01494
23 23 6917.01648 6148.11 -53.45 5891.81082
24 24 7262.86731 6386.72 48.77 6094.66548
25 25 5980.51363 6321.74 8.96 6435.48684
26 26 6366.35321 6339.62 12.08 6330.70428
27 27 6173.43342 6307.13 -3.52 6351.69654
28 28 6559.27301 6367.53 18.85 6303.61277
29 29 6752.1928 6477.83 50.86 6386.3801
30 30 6848.6527 6608.68 78.86 6528.69417
31 31 7041.57249 6776.05 109.84 6687.54106
32 32 6945.1126 6900.69 115.02 6885.88393
33 33 7330.95219 7094.52 142.60 7015.70861
34 34 7427.41208 7284.69 159.25 7237.12084
35 35 7427.41208 7439.81 157.81 7443.94546
36 36 7234.49229 7506.84 126.03 7597.61726
37 37 6033.82329 7233.11 -13.88 7632.86773
38 38 6188.53671 6961.55 -104.07 7219.22194
39 39 6807.39038 6844.96 -108.45 6857.48099
40 40 6962.1038 6792.91 -88.71 6736.50578
41 41 7116.81722 6807.35 -52.61 6704.19254
42 42 6962.1038 6806.58 -34.46 6754.74063
43 43 7271.53063 6896.97 9.23 6772.11762
44 44 7271.53063 6997.54 41.20 6906.20571
45 45 7426.24405 7135.61 75.11 7038.73771
46 46 7658.31418 7322.62 114.27 7210.72186
47 47 7735.67089 7511.59 140.42 7436.89184
48 48 8122.45443 7769.61 181.58 7652.00167
1 7632.86773
2 7758.89944
3 7884.93115
4 8010.96285
5 8136.99456
6 8263.02627
7 8389.05798
8 8515.08969
9 8641.1214
10 8767.15311
11 8893.18482
12 9019.21653
TOTAL
COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN 0.947104053

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN 742.713876
Error
Desviación
Error porcentual
Error de absoluta
cuadrático absoluto
pronóstico media
medio (MSE) medio
(MAD)
(MAPE)
-3,185.91 3,185.91 10,150,002.91 1.23

-1,282.84 1,282.84 1,645,668.77 0.37
429.82 429.82 184,743.24 0.10
1,330.49 1,330.49 1,770,213.34 0.26
2,062.69 2,062.69 4,254,669.95 0.34
2,085.14 2,085.14 4,347,802.07 0.32
1,746.43 1,746.43 3,050,003.78 0.25
1,512.68 1,512.68 2,288,207.29 0.20
512.60 512.60 262,762.59 0.07
756.31 756.31 572,002.33 0.09
526.70 526.70 277,417.54 0.06
-903.30 903.30 815,958.35 0.11
-3,633.47 3,633.47 13,202,118.72 0.66
-2,472.92 2,472.92 6,115,349.46 0.41
-1,270.85 1,270.85 1,615,052.91 0.19
-719.23 719.23 517,285.54 0.11
-703.71 703.71 495,210.01 0.11
61.20 61.20 3,745.48 0.01
514.25 514.25 264,448.63 0.07
-459.09 459.09 210,760.41 0.08
234.49 234.49 54,984.49 0.04
791.79 791.79 626,935.40 0.12
1,025.21 1,025.21 1,051,046.65 0.15
1,168.20 1,168.20 1,364,695.51 0.16
-454.97 454.97 207,000.62 0.08
35.65 35.65 1,270.85 0.01
-178.26 178.26 31,777.74 0.03
255.66 255.66 65,362.16 0.04
365.81 365.81 133,818.93 0.05
319.96 319.96 102,373.46 0.05
354.03 354.03 125,338.26 0.05
59.23 59.23 3,508.04 0.01
315.24 315.24 99,378.51 0.04
190.29 190.29 36,210.76 0.03
-16.53 16.53 273.35 0.00
-363.12 363.12 131,859.75 0.05
-1,599.04 1,599.04 2,556,943.11 0.27
-1,030.69 1,030.69 1,062,312.04 0.17
-50.09 50.09 2,509.07 0.01
225.60 225.60 50,894.47 0.03
412.62 412.62 170,259.12 0.06
207.36 207.36 42,999.48 0.03
499.41 499.41 249,413.36 0.07
365.32 365.32 133,462.30 0.05
387.51 387.51 150,161.17 0.05
447.59 447.59 200,338.88 0.06
298.78 298.78 89,268.92 0.04
470.45 470.45 221,325.80 0.06
1,644.49 38,292.55 61,009,145.52 6.82

INFORMACION DE DEMANDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE
Plan pronóstico de produccion

Periodo ASAR SOBREBARRIGA CADERA
1 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
2 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
3 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
4 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
5 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
6 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
7 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
8 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
9 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
10 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
11 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
12 1015259.483861 270735.862363 169209.913976858
TOTAL 12183113.80633 3248830.348356 2030518.96772229
INFORMACIÓN DE CAPACIDAD
Norma estandar
Producto Ts/u (dado en horas) CAPACIDAD
A 0.0286 ASAR Dias habiles/mes (promedio) =
B 0.0500 SOBREBAR Jornada de trabajo =
C 0.0400 CADERA Número de turnos =
Número de operarios =
INFORMACIÓN DE COSTOS
Costo de manufactura
A B C
Costo por hora regular $ 4,818 $ 4,818 $ 4,818
Incremento por hora extra 0% 0% 0%
costo por hora extra 0 0 0
Costo M.P. por producto 0 0 0
cm por hora 0 0 0
Nota: El costo incremento por hora es el comportamiento promedio de liquidacion

NDA E INVENTARIOS CARNE
Niveles de inventario Periodo

PRODUCTO Inv. Inicial Inv. Final (deseado) 1
ASAR 0 0 2
SOBREBARRIGA 0 0 3
CADERA 0 0 4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
TOTAL
N DE CAPACIDAD
Capacidad del sis

CAPACIDAD 1 2 3 4 5
ias habiles/mes (promedio) = 21 20 20 20 22
Jornada de trabajo = 8 8 8 8 8
Número de turnos = 1 1 1 1 1
Número de operarios = 302 302 302 302 302
168 160 160 160 176
ORMACIÓN DE COSTOS
Costo de operación
A B C
Costo de mantenimiento de inv.(KG) $ 60 $ 60 $ 60
Costo por defecit de inv. 0 0 0
Costo por subcontratación por producto 0 0 0
Nota: si se trabaja sobre tasa de tiempo extra no se trabaja sobre tasa de recargo nocturno
Costo por cambio en la fuerza de trabajo mejor llamado rotación

Costo de contratacion por operario $ 350,000
Costo de despido por operario $ 440,000
PRONOSTICO EN KG PRONOSTICO EN TONELADAS
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
3384198.27953715 3,384.20
40610379.3544458
Capacidad del sistema

6 7 8 9
18 22 20 21
8 8 8 8
1 1 1 1
302 302 302 302
144 176 160 168
10 11 12
22 19 21
8 8 8
1 1 1
302 302 302
176 152 168
Determinacion de la demanda neta
Periodo A B C
1 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
2 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
3 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
4 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
5 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
6 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
7 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
8 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
9 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
10 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
11 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
12 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
TOTAL 12,183,113.81 3,248,830.35 2,030,518.97
Poka yoke - - -
OPERARIOS A CONTRATAR 299 CAPACIDAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =
Plan de produccion e invenTario

Horas para
Periodo DAT Horas disponibles
inventario
1 49,312.604 50,736 1,423
2 49,312.604 48,320 431
3 49,312.604 48,320 -
4 49,312.604 48,320 -
5 49,312.604 53,152 3,839
6 49,312.604 43,488 -
7 49,312.604 53,152 3,839
8 49,312.604 48,320 2,847
9 49,312.604 50,736 4,270
10 49,312.604 53,152 8,110
11 49,312.604 45,904 4,701
12 49,312.604 50,736 6,124
TOTAL 591,751.242 594,336.000 35,584.912
Demandas agregadas Requerimientos

Periodo DAA DAB DAC RA
1 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 29007.413824604
2 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 28169.827649208
3 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 27916.241473813
4 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 28246.655298417
5 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 28831.069123021
6 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 26572.482947625
7 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 27740.896772229
8 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 25482.310596833
9 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 23807.724421437
10 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 21295.138246041
11 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 16525.552070646
12 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 13758.96589525
TOTAL 348088.9658953 162441.517417783 81220.7587088916 297354.27831912
PLAN M
PRODUCTO A
produccion e inventario
Periodo Demanda Produccion Inventario Defecit
1 1,015,259 1,044,575 29,316 -
2 1,015,259 1,024,135 38,191 -
3 1,015,259 1,003,695 26,627 -
4 1,015,259 994,805 6,172 -
5 1,015,259 1,094,310 85,223 -
6 1,015,259 974,365 44,328 -
7 1,015,259 1,094,310 123,379 -
8 1,015,259 1,073,870 181,989 -
9 1,015,259 1,103,200 269,930 -
10 1,015,259 1,182,195 436,865 -
11 1,015,259 1,112,090 533,696 -
12 1,015,259 1,141,315 659,751 -
12,842,865 2,435,465 -
PRODUCTO B
1 270,735.86 278,560.00 7,824.14 -
2 270,735.86 273,100.00 10,188.28 -
3 270,735.86 267,640.00 7,092.41 -
4 270,735.86 265,300.00 1,656.55 -
5 270,735.86 291,800.00 22,720.69 -
6 270,735.86 259,840.00 11,824.83 -
7 270,735.86 291,820.00 32,908.96 -
8 270,735.86 286,360.00 48,533.10 -
9 270,735.86 294,180.00 71,977.24 -
10 270,735.86 315,260.00 116,501.38 -
11 270,735.86 296,540.00 142,305.51 -
12 270,735.86 304,380.00 175,949.65 -
3,424,780.00 649,482.74 -
PRODUCTO C
1 169,209.91 174,100.00 4,890.09 -
2 169,209.91 170,675.00 6,355.17 -
3 169,209.91 167,300.00 4,445.26 -
4 169,209.91 165,800.00 1,035.34 -
5 169,209.91 182,375.00 14,200.43 -
6 169,209.91 162,400.00 7,390.52 -
7 169,209.91 182,375.00 20,555.60 -
8 169,209.91 179,000.00 30,345.69 -
9 169,209.91 183,850.00 44,985.77 -
10 169,209.91 197,050.00 72,825.86 -
11 169,209.91 185,325.00 88,940.95 -
12 169,209.91 190,225.00 109,956.03 -
2,140,475.00 405,926.71 -
ESTADO GENE
costos de manufactura
pormano de obra
pormateria prima
costo de operación
por defecit
Por inventario
Costo contratación
Costo deproduccion
costo real
costo promedio
Determinación de la dem
Periodo DA(A)
0 0 0 1 29,007.41
0 0 0 2 29,007.41
0 0 0 3 29,007.41
0 0 0 4 29,007.41
0 0 0 5 29,007.41
0 0 0 6 29,007.41
7 29,007.41
8 29,007.41
9 29,007.41
10 29,007.41
11 29,007.41
12 29,007.41
TOTAL 348,088.97
1 2 3
DAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO = 50,736.00 48,320.00 48,320.00
Plan global de produccion e inventario AGREGADO
Tario Ajuste al plan

Horas dedefecit Periodo DAT
- 1 49,313
- 2 49,313
562 3 49,313
993 4 49,313
- 5 49,313
1,985 6 49,313
- 7 49,313
- 8 49,313
- 9 49,313
- 10 49,313
- 11 49,313
- 12 49,313
3,539.621 TOTAL 591,751
Requerimientos Porcentajes de desagregación

RB RC %A %B %C
13536.7931181486 6768.3965590743 0.588 0.275 0.137
13145.5862362972 6572.7931181486 0.588 0.275 0.137
13027.3793544458 6514.1896772229 0.588 0.275 0.137
13182.1724725944 6590.5862362972 0.588 0.275 0.137
13453.965590743 6726.9827953715 0.588 0.275 0.137
12400.7587088916 6200.3793544458 0.588 0.275 0.137
12945.5518270402 6472.7759135201 0.588 0.275 0.137
11891.3449451888 5946.1724725944 0.588 0.275 0.137
11110.1380633374 5554.5690316687 0.588 0.275 0.137
9937.931181486 4968.965590743 0.588 0.275 0.137
7711.7242996346 3855.3621498173 0.588 0.275 0.137
6421.5174177832 3210.7587088916 0.588 0.275 0.137
138764.863215591 69381.9316077954 7.05883236290001 3.29412408277894 1.64704355432106
PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCION E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS
costo de manufactura costo de operacion

MO MP total Inventario Defecit
143,807,510.73 - 143,807,510.73 1,744,971.20 -
140,993,518.90 - 140,993,518.90 2,273,275.73 -
138,179,527.06 - 138,179,527.06 1,584,913.60 -
136,955,633.35 - 136,955,633.35 367,384.79 -
150,654,569.63 - 150,654,569.63 5,072,772.66 -
134,141,641.52 - 134,141,641.52 2,638,577.19 -
150,654,569.63 150,654,569.63 7,343,965.06 -
147,840,577.79 147,840,577.79 10,832,686.26 -
151,878,463.33 151,878,463.33 16,067,240.79 -
162,753,770.81 162,753,770.81 26,003,878.65 -
153,102,357.04 153,102,357.04 31,767,599.85 -
157,125,787.15 157,125,787.15 39,270,904.38 -
1,768,087,927 - 1,768,087,927 144,968,170 -

67,111,777.83 - 67,111,777.83 465,722.48 -
65,796,333.02 - 65,796,333.02 606,444.96 -
64,480,888.21 - 64,480,888.21 422,167.44 -
63,917,126.15 - 63,917,126.15 98,604.20 -
70,301,611.04 - 70,301,611.04 1,352,421.92 -
62,601,681.33 - 62,601,681.33 703,858.68 -
70,306,429.52 - 70,306,429.52 1,958,866.87 -
68,990,984.71 - 68,990,984.71 2,888,875.07 -
70,875,010.06 - 70,875,010.06 4,284,359.45 -
75,953,687.10 - 75,953,687.10 6,934,605.74 -
71,443,590.60 - 71,443,590.60 8,470,566.31 -
73,332,434.44 - 73,332,434.44 10,473,193.55 -
825,111,554.02 - 825,111,554.02 38,659,686.65 -

33,555,888.92 - 33,555,888.92 291,076.55 -
32,895,757.27 - 32,895,757.27 378,284.05 -
32,245,262.58 - 32,245,262.58 264,598.69 -
31,956,153.83 - 31,956,153.83 61,627.62 -
35,150,805.52 - 35,150,805.52 845,263.70 -
31,300,840.67 - 31,300,840.67 439,911.67 -
35,150,805.52 - 35,150,805.52 1,223,547.75 -
34,500,310.83 - 34,500,310.83 1,806,290.96 -
35,435,095.79 - 35,435,095.79 2,677,724.66 -
37,979,252.79 - 37,979,252.79 4,334,872.63 -
35,719,386.06 - 35,719,386.06 5,294,103.94 -
36,663,807.98 - 36,663,807.98 6,545,001.92 -
412,553,367.77 - 412,553,367.77 24,162,304.16 -
ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOS DE PRODUCCIÓN
producto A producto b producto C subtotal
1,768,087,926.94 825,111,554.02 412,553,367.77 3,005,752,848.73

- - - -
1,768,087,926.94 825,111,554.02 412,553,367.77
- - - -
144,968,170.17 38,659,686.65 24,162,304.16 207,790,160.97
144,968,170.17 38,659,686.65 24,162,304.16
1,913,056,097.11 863,771,240.67 436,715,671.93
148.96 252.21 204.03
174.57
Determinación de la demanda agregada
DA(B) DA(C) DAT

13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
13,536.79 6,768.40 49,312.60
162,441.52 81,220.76 591,751.24
4 5 6 7 8 9
48,320.00 53,152.00 43,488.00 53,152.00 48,320.00 50,736.00
ADO
Ajuste al plan de produccion e invenTario Plan maestro de producción r

Horas disponibles Horas para inventario Horas dedefecit Periodo A
50,736 1,423 - 1 1,044,575

49,743 1,854 - 2 1,024,135
48,751 1,292 - 3 1,003,695
48,320 300 - 4 994,805
53,152 4,139 - 5 1,094,310
47,327 2,154 - 6 974,365
53,152 5,993 7 1,094,310
52,159 8,840 8 1,073,870
53,583 13,110 9 1,103,200
57,422 21,220 10 1,182,195
54,014 25,921 11 1,112,090
55,437 32,045 12 1,141,315
623,797 118,293 0 TOTAL 12,842,865
0 0 0 Desagregacion maestra
Inventario neto agregado horas de trabajo por producto
INAA INB INC DMA DMB DMc
837.586175395863 391.2068818514 195.6034409257 29845 13928 6964
1091.17235079173 509.4137637028 254.2068818514 29261 13655 6827
760.75852618759 354.6206455542 177.8103227771 28677 13382 6692
176.344701583454 82.8275274055995 41.4137637028 28423 13265 6632
2434.93087697932 1136.034409257 568.0172046285 31266 14590 7295
1266.51705237518 591.241291108399 295.6206455542 27839 12992 6496
3525.10322777104 1645.4481729598 822.2240864799 31266 14591 7295
5199.68940316691 2426.6550548112 1213.827527406 30682 14318 7160
7712.27557856277 3598.8619366626 1799.430968331 31520 14709 7354
12481.8617539586 5825.068818514 2913.034409257 33777 15763 7882
15248.4479293545 7115.2757003654 3557.637850183 31774 14827 7413
18850.0341047504 8797.4825822168 4398.241291108 32609 15219 7609
69584.7216808773 32474.1367844092 16237.0683922 366939 171239 85619
operacion Inventario inicial 0

total costo de producción Inventario final 0
1,744,971.20 145,552,481.93 Costo de MO por unidad 137.67
2,273,275.73 143,266,794.63 Costo de MP por unidad 0.00
1,584,913.60 139,764,440.66 Costo de mantenimiento 59.52
367,384.79 137,323,018.15 Costo Penal 0.00
5,072,772.66 155,727,342.29 Costo estandar / und 137.67
2,638,577.19 136,780,218.71 Costo real / und 148.96
7,343,965.06 157,998,534.68
10,832,686.26 158,673,264.05
16,067,240.79 167,945,704.12
26,003,878.65 188,757,649.47
31,767,599.85 184,869,956.89
39,270,904.38 196,396,691.53
144,968,170 1,913,056,097 % de incremento 8.20
operacion Inventario inicial 0.00

total costo de producción Inventario final 0.00
465,722.48 67,577,500.31 Costo de MO por unidad 240.92
606,444.96 66,402,777.98 Costo de MP por unidad 0.00
422,167.44 64,903,055.64 Costo de mantenimiento 59.52
98,604.20 64,015,730.35 Costo Penal 0.00
703,858.68 63,305,540.01 Costo real / und 252.21
1,958,866.87 72,265,296.39
2,888,875.07 71,879,859.77
4,284,359.45 75,159,369.51
6,934,605.74 82,888,292.84
8,470,566.31 79,914,156.91
10,473,193.55 83,805,627.99
38,659,686.65 863,771,240.67 % de incremento 4.69

61,627.62 32,017,781.46 Costo Penal 0.00
845,263.70 35,996,069.22 Costo estandar / und 192.74
439,911.67 31,740,752.34 Costo real / und 204.03
1,223,547.75 36,374,353.27
1,806,290.96 36,306,601.80
2,677,724.66 38,112,820.45
4,334,872.63 42,314,125.42
5,294,103.94 41,013,490.01
6,545,001.92 43,208,809.90
24,162,304.16 436,715,671.93 % de incremento 5.86
Total
3,005,752,848.73
207,790,160.97
130,550,000.00
3,213,543,009.70
3,344,093,009.70
10 11 12
53,152.00 45,904.00 50,736.00
Plan maestro de producción real

B C
278,560 174,100
273,100 170,675
267,640 167,300
265,300 165,800
291,800 182,375
259,840 162,400
291,820 182,375
286,360 179,000
294,180 183,850
315,260 197,050
296,540 185,325
304,380 190,225
3,424,780 2,140,475
8118.468468
8118.918919
Periodo A B C
1 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91 0
2 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91 0
3 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91 0
4 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91 0
5 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91 0
6 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91 0
7 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
8 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
9 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
10 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
11 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
12 1,015,259.48 270,735.86 169,209.91
TOTAL 12,183,113.81 3,248,830.35 2,030,518.97
Poka yoke - - -
HORAS POR OPERARIO POR PERIODO=
Plan global de
Plan de
Periodo DAT
1 49,312.60
2 49,312.60
3 49,312.60
4 49,312.60
5 49,312.60
6 49,312.60
7 49,312.60
8 49,312.60
9 49,312.60
10 49,312.60
11 49,312.60
12 49,312.60
TOTAL 591,751.24
DESAGREGACION MAESTRA DEL P

Periodo DAA DAB DAC RA RB
1 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 29007.4138246 13536.7931181486
2 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28960.82764921 13536.7931181486
3 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28899.24147381 13463.3793544458
4 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28810.65529842 13445.1724725944
5 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28736.06912302 13409.965590743
6 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28651.48294762 13370.7587088916
7 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28604.89677223 13348.5518270402
8 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28520.31059683 13309.3449451888
9 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28445.72442144 13274.1380633374
10 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28399.13824604 13252.931181486
11 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28314.55207065 13213.7242996346
12 29007.4138 13536.7931181486 6768.396559074 28262.96589525 13189.5174177832
TOTAL 348088.966 162441.517417783 81220.75870889 343613.2783191 160351.070097442
PLAN M
Periodo A B C Costo de contratacion
1 1,016,890.00 271,180.00 169,475.00 101,850,000.00

2 1,017,415.00 271,760.00 169,575.00 5,250,000.00
3 1,018,360.00 271,100.00 169,725.00 -
4 1,017,870.00 271,440.00 169,650.00 -
5 1,018,220.00 271,520.00 169,700.00 -
6 1,016,890.00 271,180.00 169,475.00 21,700,000.00
7 1,018,220.00 271,520.00 169,700.00 -
8 1,017,870.00 271,440.00 169,650.00 9,800,000.00
9 1,016,890.00 271,160.00 169,500.00 -
10 1,018,220.00 271,520.00 169,700.00 -
11 1,017,065.00 271,220.00 169,500.00 15,400,000.00
12 1,016,890.00 271,180.00 169,475.00 -
TOTAL 12,210,800.00 3,256,220.00 2,035,125.00 154,000,000.00
PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUC
PRODUCTO A
1 1,015,259 1,016,890 1,631 -
2 1,015,259 1,017,415 3,786 -
3 1,015,259 1,018,360 6,887 -
4 1,015,259 1,017,870 9,497 -
5 1,015,259 1,018,220 12,458 -
6 1,015,259 1,016,890 14,088 -
7 1,015,259 1,018,220 17,049 -
8 1,015,259 1,017,870 19,659 -
9 1,015,259 1,016,890 21,290 -
10 1,015,259 1,018,220 24,250 -
11 1,015,259 1,017,065 26,056 -
12 1,015,259 1,016,890 27,686 -
12,183,114 12,210,800 184,335 -
15,361.27
sobreinventario = 27,686.19
Requerimiento bruto = 12,183,113.81
Requerimiento Neto = 12,183,113.81
Total producido = 12,210,800.00
PRODUCTO B
1 270,736 271,180 444 -
2 270,736 271,760 1,468 -
3 270,736 271,100 1,832 -
4 270,736 271,440 2,537 -
5 270,736 271,520 3,321 -
6 270,736 271,180 3,765 -
7 270,736 271,520 4,549 -
8 270,736 271,440 5,253 -
9 270,736 271,160 5,677 -
10 270,736 271,520 6,461 -
11 270,736 271,220 6,946 -
12 270,736 271,180 7,390 -
3,248,830 3,256,220 49,643 -
4,136.89
PRODUCTO C
1 169,210 169,475 265 -
2 169,210 169,575 630 -
3 169,210 169,725 1,145 -
4 169,210 169,650 1,585 -
5 169,210 169,700 2,075 -
6 169,210 169,475 2,341 -
7 169,210 169,700 2,831 -
8 169,210 169,650 3,271 -
9 169,210 169,500 3,561 -
10 169,210 169,700 4,051 -
11 169,210 169,500 4,341 -
12 169,210 169,475 4,606 -
2,030,519 2,035,125 30,702 -
2,558.48
ES
pormano de obra
pormateria prima
COSTO POR OPERACION

por mantenimiento de inventario
Por rotacion o contratacion
Por rotacion o despido
Costo deproduccion
costo real
costo promedio
Periodo DA(A) DA(B)

0 0 1 29,007.41 13,536.79
0 0 2 29,007.41 13,536.79
0 0 3 29,007.41 13,536.79
0 0 4 29,007.41 13,536.79
0 0 5 29,007.41 13,536.79
0 0 6 29,007.41 13,536.79
7 29,007.41 13,536.79
8 29,007.41 13,536.79
9 29,007.41 13,536.79
10 29,007.41 13,536.79
11 29,007.41 13,536.79
12 29,007.41 13,536.79
TOTAL 348,088.97 162,441.52
168.00
ERARIO POR PERIODO= 1 2 3
168.00 160.00 160.00

Operarios Operarios en el Op. Q salen de la Op. Q entran a Horas reales
requeridos periodo linea línea disponibles
294 3 - 291 49,392.00
309 294 - 15 49,440.00
309 309 - - 49,440.00
309 309 - - 49,440.00
281 309 28 - 49,456.00
343 281 - 62 49,392.00
281 343 62 - 49,456.00
309 281 - 28 49,440.00
294 309 15 - 49,392.00
281 294 13 - 49,456.00
325 281 - 44 49,400.00
294 325 31 - 49,392.00
3,629 3,338 149 440 593,096
EGACION MAESTRA DEL PLAN GLOBAL DE PRODUCCIÓN EINVENTARIO AGREGADO

0
mientos Porcentajes de desagregación Inventario neto agrega
RC %A %B %C INAA
6768.3965590743 0.588 0.275 0.137 46.5861753958634
6757.7931181486 0.588 0.275 0.137 108.172350791727
6743.1896772229 0.589 0.274 0.137 196.75852618759
6722.5862362972 0.588 0.275 0.137 271.344701583454
6704.9827953715 0.588 0.275 0.137 355.930876979317
6685.3793544458 0.588 0.275 0.137 402.51705237518
6674.7759135201 0.588 0.275 0.137 487.103227771044
6655.1724725944 0.588 0.275 0.137 561.689403166907
6637.5690316687 0.588 0.275 0.137 608.275578562771
6625.965590743 0.588 0.275 0.137 692.861753958634
6606.3621498173 0.588 0.275 0.137 744.447929354497
6594.7587088916 0.588 0.275 0.137 791.034104750361
80176.9316077954 7.05883991531654 3.29408732071686 1.647072763967 5266.72168087734
PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN REAL
Costo de despido Costo total de la

operación
- 101,850,000.00
- 5,250,000.00
- -
- -
12,320,000.00 12,320,000.00
- 21,700,000.00
27,280,000.00 27,280,000.00
- 9,800,000.00
6,600,000.00 6,600,000.00
5,720,000.00 5,720,000.00
- 15,400,000.00
13,640,000.00 13,640,000.00
65,560,000.00 219,560,000.00
AN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

MO MP total Inventario contratar
139,996,093.71 - 139,996,093.71 97,054.53 59,911,764.71
140,068,370.90 - 140,068,370.90 225,359.06 3,086,855.50
140,198,469.83 - 140,198,469.83 409,913.60 -
140,131,011.13 - 140,131,011.13 565,301.46 -
140,179,195.92 - 140,179,195.92 741,522.66 -
139,996,093.71 - 139,996,093.71 838,577.19 12,764,679.68
140,179,195.92 - 140,179,195.92 1,014,798.39 -
140,131,011.13 - 140,131,011.13 1,170,186.26 5,764,670.21
139,996,093.71 - 139,996,093.71 1,267,240.79 -
140,179,195.92 - 140,179,195.92 1,443,461.99 -
140,020,186.10 - 140,020,186.10 1,550,933.19 9,058,842.35
139,996,093.71 - 139,996,093.71 1,647,987.72 -
1,681,071,012 - 1,681,071,012 10,972,337 90,586,812
Para el analisis es necesario comparar el requerimiento neto con el total producido

para determinar si es posible cubrir la demanda

65,333,759.02 - 65,333,759.02 26,436.76 27,958,823.53
65,473,494.92 - 65,473,494.92 87,397.34 1,442,849.80
65,314,485.10 - 65,314,485.10 109,072.20 -
65,396,399.25 - 65,396,399.25 150,985.15 -
65,415,673.17 - 65,415,673.17 197,660.01 -
65,333,759.02 - 65,333,759.02 224,096.78 5,956,880.22
65,415,673.17 - 65,415,673.17 270,771.63 -
65,396,399.25 - 65,396,399.25 312,684.59 2,690,152.48
65,328,940.54 - 65,328,940.54 337,930.88 -
65,415,673.17 - 65,415,673.17 384,605.74 -
65,343,395.98 - 65,343,395.98 413,423.45 4,227,545.08
65,333,759.02 - 65,333,759.02 439,860.22 -
784,501,412 - 784,501,412 2,954,925 42,276,251


32,664,470.27 - 32,664,470.27 15,778.93 13,979,411.76
32,683,744.19 - 32,683,744.19 37,510.24 720,294.71
32,712,655.06 - 32,712,655.06 68,170.12 -
32,698,199.63 - 32,698,199.63 94,365.72 -
32,707,836.58 - 32,707,836.58 123,537.51 -
32,664,470.27 - 32,664,470.27 139,316.44 2,978,440.11
32,707,836.58 - 32,707,836.58 168,488.22 -
32,698,199.63 - 32,698,199.63 194,683.82 1,345,177.30
32,669,288.75 - 32,669,288.75 211,950.85 -
32,707,836.58 - 32,707,836.58 241,122.63 -
32,669,288.75 - 32,669,288.75 258,389.66 2,113,612.57
32,664,470.27 - 32,664,470.27 274,168.59 -
392,248,297 - 392,248,297 1,827,483 21,136,936

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOSDE PRODUCCIÓN
1,681,071,011.67 784,501,411.60 392,248,296.56 2,857,820,719.83

- - - -
1,681,071,011.67 784,501,411.60 392,248,296.56
10,972,336.84 2,954,924.74 1,827,482.73 15,754,744.31

90,586,812.44 42,276,251.10 21,136,936.45 154,000,000.00
38,564,808.92 17,996,601.05 8,998,590.02 65,560,000.00
140,123,958.20 63,227,776.90 31,963,009.21
1,821,194,969.86 847,729,188.51 424,211,305.77
149.15 260.34 208.44
176.73
la demanda agregada
DA(C) DAT
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
6,768.40 49,312.60
81,220.76 591,751.24
4 5 6 7 8 9
160.00 176.00 144.00 176.00 160.00 168.00
0 0 Desagregacion maestra
INB INC DMA DMB DMc
22.2068818513999 10.6034409257 29054 13559 6779
73.4137637027998 25.2068818514 29069 13588 6783
91.6206455541997 45.8103227771 29096 13555 6789
126.8275274056 63.4137637028 29082 13572 6786
166.034409256999 83.0172046285 29092 13576 6788
188.241291108399 93.6206455542 29054 13559 6779
227.448172959799 113.2240864799 29092 13576 6788
262.655054811199 130.8275274056 29082 13572 6786
283.861936662599 142.4309683313 29054 13558 6780
323.068818513999 162.034409257 29092 13576 6788
347.275700365399 173.6378501827 29059 13561 6780
369.482582216799 184.2412911084 29054 13559 6779
2482.13678440919 1228.0683922046 348880 162811 81405 593096
discrepancia del inv. Fin

e operacion costo de Inventario inicial
Despedir Total producción Inventario final
- 60,008,819.24 200,004,912.95 Costo de MO por unidad
- 3,312,214.56 143,380,585.46 Costo de MP por unidad
- 409,913.60 140,608,383.43 Costo de mantenimiento
- 565,301.46 140,696,312.59 Costo Penal
7,247,103.33 7,988,625.99 148,167,821.91 Costo estandar / und
- 13,603,256.87 153,599,350.58 Costo real / und
16,047,091.82 17,061,890.21 157,241,086.13
- 6,934,856.47 147,065,867.59
3,882,377.03 5,149,617.82 145,145,711.52
3,364,740.73 4,808,202.72 144,987,398.63
- 10,609,775.54 150,629,961.64
8,023,496.01 9,671,483.73 149,667,577.44
38,564,809 140,123,958 1,821,194,970 % de incremento

- 150,985.15 65,547,384.40 Costo Penal
- 6,180,976.99 71,514,736.01 Costo real / und
7,488,418.45 7,759,190.09 73,174,863.26
- 3,002,837.07 68,399,236.32
1,811,703.15 2,149,634.03 67,478,574.57
1,570,212.34 1,954,818.08 67,370,491.24
- 4,640,968.53 69,984,364.51
3,744,335.99 4,184,196.21 69,517,955.23 % de incremento
17,996,601 63,227,777 847,729,189

- 757,804.95 33,441,549.13 Costo de MP por unidad
- 94,365.72 32,792,565.34 Costo Penal
- 3,117,756.54 35,782,226.82 Costo real / und
3,744,489.72 3,912,977.95 36,620,814.53
- 1,539,861.12 34,238,060.75
905,919.82 1,117,870.66 33,787,159.41
785,046.93 1,026,169.56 33,734,006.15
- 2,372,002.23 35,041,290.98
1,872,168.00 2,146,336.58 34,810,806.85
8,998,590 31,963,009 424,211,306 % de incremento
Total
2,857,820,719.83
235,314,744.31
3,093,135,464.14
10 11 12
176.00 152.00 168.00
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
14,088
-
-
137.67
0.00
59.52
0.00
137.67
149.15
8.34
3,765
0
0
240.92
0.00
59.52
0.00
240.92
260.34
8.06
2,341
0
0
192.74
0.00
59.52
0.00
192.74
208.44
8.15

Periodo MILANESA COSTILLAS CHORIZOS
1 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
2 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
3 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
4 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
5 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
6 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
7 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
8 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
9 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
10 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
11 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
12 771544.5906399 330661.9674171 220441.311611402
TOTAL 9258535.087679 3967943.609005 2645295.73933682
Norma estandar
A 0.0333 MILANESA Dias habiles/mes (promedio) =
B 0.0667 COSTILLAS Jornada de trabajo =
C 0.0250 CHORIZOS Número de turnos =
A B C
cm por hora 0 0 0


MILANESA 0 0 2
COSTILLAS 0 0 3
CERDO 0 0 4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
TOTAL
N DE CAPACIDAD
Capacidad del sis

CAPACIDAD 1 2 3 4 5
168 160 160 160 176
ORMACIÓN DE COSTOS
Costo de operación
A B C

2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
2204413.11611402 2204.41311611402
26452957.3933682

6 7 8 9
18 22 20 21
8 8 8 8
1 1 1 1
325 325 325 325
144 176 160 168
10 11 12
22 19 21
8 8 8
1 1 1
325 325 325
176 152 168
Periodo A B C
1 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
2 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
3 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
4 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
5 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
6 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
7 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
8 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
9 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
10 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
11 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
12 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
TOTAL 9,258,535.09 3,967,943.61 2,645,295.74
Poka yoke - - -

Horas para
inventario
1 53,273.317 54,600 1,327
2 53,273.317 52,000 53
3 53,273.317 52,000 -
4 53,273.317 52,000 -
5 53,273.317 57,200 3,927
6 53,273.317 46,800 -
7 53,273.317 57,200 3,927
8 53,273.317 52,000 2,653
9 53,273.317 54,600 3,980
10 53,273.317 57,200 7,907
11 53,273.317 49,400 4,033
12 53,273.317 54,600 5,360
TOTAL 639,279.804 639,600.000 33,167.076

1 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 25718.15302133
2 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 25077.30604266
3 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 25051.459063991
4 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 25640.612085321
5 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 25718.15302133
6 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 23822.30604266
7 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 25051.459063991
8 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 23156.612085321
9 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 21875.765106651
10 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 19953.918127981
11 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 16137.071149311
12 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 14190.224170642
TOTAL 308617.836256 264529.573933682 66132.3934834205 271393.03898119
PLAN
PRODUCTO A
1 771,545 790,770 19,225 -
2 771,545 772,320 20,001 -
3 771,545 753,870 2,326 -
4 771,545 753,120 - 16,098
5 771,545 828,420 56,875 -
6 771,545 734,670 20,001 -
7 771,545 828,390 76,846 -
8 771,545 809,970 115,272 -
9 771,545 829,200 172,927 -
10 771,545 886,050 287,432 -
11 771,545 829,950 345,838 -
12 771,545 849,180 423,473 -
9,665,910 1,540,217 16,098
PRODUCTO B
1 330,661.97 338,895.00 8,233.03 -
2 330,661.97 330,990.00 8,561.07 -
3 330,661.97 323,100.00 999.10 -
4 330,661.97 322,755.00 - 6,907.87
5 330,661.97 355,035.00 24,373.03 -
6 330,661.97 314,850.00 8,561.07 -
7 330,661.97 355,035.00 32,934.10 -
8 330,661.97 347,130.00 49,402.13 -
9 330,661.97 355,365.00 74,105.16 -
10 330,661.97 379,740.00 123,183.20 -
11 330,661.97 355,695.00 148,216.23 -
12 330,661.97 363,945.00 181,499.26 -
4,142,535.00 660,067.37 6,907.87
PRODUCTO C
1 220,441.31 225,920.00 5,478.69 -
2 220,441.31 220,680.00 5,717.38 -
3 220,441.31 215,400.00 676.07 -
4 220,441.31 215,160.00 - 4,605.25
5 220,441.31 236,680.00 16,238.69 -
6 220,441.31 209,920.00 5,717.38 -
7 220,441.31 236,680.00 21,956.07 -
8 220,441.31 231,440.00 32,954.75 -
9 220,441.31 236,880.00 49,393.44 -
10 220,441.31 253,160.00 82,112.13 -
11 220,441.31 237,160.00 98,830.82 -
12 220,441.31 242,600.00 120,989.51 -
2,761,680.00 440,064.91 4,605.25
ESTADO GENE
pormano de obra
pormateria prima
costo de operación
por defecit
Por inventario
Costo contratación
Costo deproduccion
costo real
costo promedio
Determinación de la dem
Periodo DA(A)
0 0 0 1 25,718.15
0 0 0 2 25,718.15
0 0 0 3 25,718.15
0 0 0 4 25,718.15
0 0 0 5 25,718.15
0 0 0 6 25,718.15
7 25,718.15
8 25,718.15
9 25,718.15
10 25,718.15
11 25,718.15
12 25,718.15
TOTAL 308,617.84
1 2 3
Tario Ajuste al plan

- 1 53,273
- 2 53,273
1,220 3 53,273
1,273 4 53,273
- 5 53,273
2,547 6 53,273
- 7 53,273
- 8 53,273
- 9 53,273
- 10 53,273
- 11 53,273
- 12 53,273
5,039.902 TOTAL 639,279.804

RB RC %A %B %C
22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 0.483 0.414 0.103
21495.2623222803 5374.06558057008 0.483 0.414 0.103
21473.3934834205 5368.09837085513 0.483 0.414 0.103
21977.5246445607 5494.13116114017 0.483 0.414 0.103
22044.1311611402 5511.03279028504 0.483 0.414 0.103
20419.2623222803 5105.06558057008 0.483 0.414 0.103
21473.3934834205 5368.09837085513 0.483 0.414 0.103
19848.5246445607 4962.13116114017 0.483 0.414 0.103
18750.6558057008 4687.16395142521 0.483 0.414 0.103
17103.786966841 4276.19674171025 0.483 0.414 0.103
13831.9181279812 3458.2295319953 0.483 0.414 0.103
12163.0492891213 3040.26232228034 0.483 0.414 0.103
232625.033412448 58155.5083531119 5.79308206077776 4.96554953611368 1.24136840310857

127,010,292.35 - 127,010,292.35 915,495.68 -
124,046,927.67 - 124,046,927.67 952,419.94 -
121,083,562.98 - 121,083,562.98 110,772.77 -
120,963,101.00 - 120,963,101.00 - -
133,057,483.71 - 133,057,483.71 2,708,352.83 -
117,999,736.31 - 117,999,736.31 952,419.94 -
133,052,665.23 133,052,665.23 3,659,344.19 -
130,094,119.02 130,094,119.02 5,489,125.59 -
133,182,764.17 133,182,764.17 8,234,621.28 -
142,313,782.19 142,313,782.19 13,687,259.82 -
133,303,226.15 133,303,226.15 16,468,469.79 -
136,391,871.29 136,391,871.29 20,165,394.04 -
1,552,499,532 - 1,552,499,532 73,343,676 -

108,863,899.81 - 108,863,899.81 392,049.17 -
106,324,561.29 - 106,324,561.29 407,669.77 -
103,790,041.25 - 103,790,041.25 47,576.08 -
103,679,216.23 - 103,679,216.23 - -
114,048,583.40 - 114,048,583.40 1,160,620.60 -
101,139,877.71 - 101,139,877.71 407,669.77 -
114,048,583.40 - 114,048,583.40 1,568,290.37 -
111,509,244.88 - 111,509,244.88 2,352,482.40 -
114,154,589.94 - 114,154,589.94 3,528,817.28 -
121,984,618.58 - 121,984,618.58 5,865,866.45 -
114,260,596.48 - 114,260,596.48 7,057,915.62 -
116,910,760.02 - 116,910,760.02 8,642,821.94 -
1,330,714,572.98 - 1,330,714,572.98 31,431,779.45 -

27,214,770.33 - 27,214,770.33 260,889.92 -
26,583,549.56 - 26,583,549.56 272,256.04 -
25,947,510.31 - 25,947,510.31 32,193.58 -
25,918,599.44 - 25,918,599.44 - -
28,510,941.23 - 28,510,941.23 773,270.88 -
25,287,378.67 - 25,287,378.67 272,256.04 -
28,510,941.23 - 28,510,941.23 1,045,526.91 -
27,879,720.46 - 27,879,720.46 1,569,273.98 -
28,535,033.63 - 28,535,033.63 2,352,068.66 -
30,496,154.65 - 30,496,154.65 3,910,101.44 -
28,568,762.98 - 28,568,762.98 4,706,229.46 -
29,224,076.15 - 29,224,076.15 5,761,405.10 -
332,677,438.63 - 332,677,438.63 20,955,472.02 -
1,552,499,532.06 1,330,714,572.98 332,677,438.63 3,215,891,543.67

- - - -
1,552,499,532.06 1,330,714,572.98 332,677,438.63
- - - -
73,343,675.86 31,431,779.45 20,955,472.02 125,730,927.33
73,343,675.86 31,431,779.45 20,955,472.02
1,625,843,207.93 1,362,146,352.43 353,632,910.64
168.20 328.82 128.05
201.67
DA(B) DA(C) DAT

22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
22,044.13 5,511.03 53,273.32
264,529.57 66,132.39 639,279.80
4 5 6 7 8 9
52,000.00 57,200.00 46,800.00 57,200.00 52,000.00 54,600.00
GREGADO
Ajuste al plan de produccion e invenTario Plan maestro de produc

54,600 1,327 - 1 790,770

53,327 1,380 - 2 772,320
52,053 160 - 3 753,870
52,000 - 1,113 4 753,120
57,200 3,927 - 5 828,420
50,727 1,380 - 6 734,670
57,200 5,307 7 828,390
55,927 7,960 8 809,970
57,253 11,940 9 829,200
61,180 19,847 10 886,050
57,307 23,880 11 829,950
58,633 29,240 12 849,180
667,406.978 106,348.106 1,113.219 TOTAL 9,665,910.000
640.846978669808 548.868838859835 136.967209715 26359 22593 5648
666.693957339616 570.73767771967 142.9344194299 25744 22066 5517
77.5409360094236 66.6065165795044 16.90162914487 25129 21540 5385
0 0 0 25104 21517 5379
1895.84697866981 1624.86883885983 405.967209715 27614 23669 5917
666.693957339616 570.73767771967 142.9344194299 24489 20990 5248
2561.54093600942 2195.6065165795 548.9016291449 27613 23669 5917
3842.38791467923 3293.47535543934 823.8688388598 26999 23142 5786
5764.23489334904 4940.34419429917 1234.836048575 27640 23691 5922
9581.08187201885 8212.21303315901 2052.80325829 29535 25316 6329
11527.9288506887 9881.08187201884 2470.770468005 27665 23713 5929
14115.7758293585 12099.9507108787 3024.73767772 28306 24263 6065
51340.573104132 44004.4912321131 11001.62280803 322197 276169 69042

- 120,963,101.00 Costo Penal 0.00
952,419.94 118,952,156.25 Costo real / und 168.20
3,659,344.19 136,712,009.42
5,489,125.59 135,583,244.61
8,234,621.28 141,417,385.44
13,687,259.82 156,001,042.00
16,468,469.79 149,771,695.93
20,165,394.04 156,557,265.33
73,343,676 1,625,843,208 % de incremento 4.72

- 103,679,216.23 Costo Penal 0.00
407,669.77 101,547,547.48 Costo real / und 328.82
1,568,290.37 115,616,873.76
2,352,482.40 113,861,727.27
3,528,817.28 117,683,407.22
5,865,866.45 127,850,485.04
7,057,915.62 121,318,512.10
8,642,821.94 125,553,581.96
31,431,779.45 1,362,146,352.43 % de incremento 2.36

- 25,918,599.44 Costo Penal 0.00
773,270.88 29,284,212.10 Costo estandar / und 120.46
272,256.04 25,559,634.70 Costo real / und 128.05
1,045,526.91 29,556,468.14
1,569,273.98 29,448,994.44
2,352,068.66 30,887,102.29
3,910,101.44 34,406,256.09
4,706,229.46 33,274,992.44
5,761,405.10 34,985,481.25
20,955,472.02 353,632,910.64 % de incremento 6.30
Total
3,215,891,543.67
125,730,927.33
106,750,000.00
3,341,622,471.00
3,448,372,471.00
10 11 12
57,200.00 49,400.00 54,600.00

B C
338,895 225,920
330,990 220,680
323,100 215,400
322,755 215,160
355,035 236,680
314,850 209,920
355,035 236,680
347,130 231,440
355,365 236,880
379,740 253,160
355,695 237,160
363,945 242,600
4,142,535.000 2,761,680.000 -
8118.468468468
8118.918918919
Periodo A B C
1 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31 0
2 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31 0
3 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31 0
4 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31 0
5 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31 0
6 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31 0
7 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
8 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
9 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
10 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
11 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
12 771,544.59 330,661.97 220,441.31
TOTAL 9,258,535.09 3,967,943.61 2,645,295.74
Poka yoke - - -
Plan global de
Plan de
Periodo DAT
1 53,273.32
2 53,273.32
3 53,273.32
4 53,273.32
5 53,273.32
6 53,273.32
7 53,273.32
8 53,273.32
9 53,273.32
10 53,273.32
11 53,273.32
12 53,273.32
TOTAL 639,279.80

1 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25718.15302133 22044.1311611402
2 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25645.30604266 22044.1311611402
3 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25672.45906399 21942.3934834205
4 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25638.61208532 21976.5246445607
5 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25635.76510665 21973.6558057008
6 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25608.91812798 21950.786966841
7 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25606.07114931 21947.9181279812
8 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25579.22417064 21925.0492891213
9 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25576.37719197 21922.1804502615
10 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25503.5302133 21860.3116114016
11 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25477.68323463 21837.4427725418
12 25718.153 22044.1311611402 5511.032790285 25439.83625596 21805.573933682
TOTAL 308617.836 264529.573933682 66132.39348342 307101.9356638 263230.099407793
PLAN M
1 773,730.00 331,590.00 221,080.00 110,250,000.00

2 770,730.00 331,260.00 220,200.00 5,250,000.00
3 772,560.00 330,150.00 220,720.00 -
4 771,630.00 330,705.00 220,480.00 -
5 772,350.00 331,005.00 220,640.00 -
6 771,630.00 330,705.00 220,480.00 23,450,000.00
7 772,350.00 331,005.00 220,680.00 -
8 771,630.00 330,705.00 220,480.00 10,500,000.00
9 773,730.00 331,590.00 221,040.00 -
10 772,320.00 331,005.00 220,680.00 -
11 772,680.00 331,140.00 220,760.00 16,800,000.00
12 773,730.00 331,590.00 221,080.00 -
TOTAL 9,269,070.00 3,972,450.00 2,648,320.00 166,250,000.00
PRODUCTO A
1 771,545 773,730 2,185 -
2 771,545 770,730 1,371 -
3 771,545 772,560 2,386 -
4 771,545 771,630 2,472 -
5 771,545 772,350 3,277 -
6 771,545 771,630 3,362 -
7 771,545 772,350 4,168 -
8 771,545 771,630 4,253 -
9 771,545 773,730 6,439 -
10 771,545 772,320 7,214 -
11 771,545 772,680 8,350 -
12 771,545 773,730 10,535 -
9,258,535 9,269,070 56,012 -
4,667.66
PRODUCTO B
1 330,662 331,590 928 -
2 330,662 331,260 1,526 -
3 330,662 330,150 1,014 -
4 330,662 330,705 1,057 -
5 330,662 331,005 1,400 -
6 330,662 330,705 1,443 -
7 330,662 331,005 1,786 -
8 330,662 330,705 1,829 -
9 330,662 331,590 2,757 -
10 330,662 331,005 3,100 -
11 330,662 331,140 3,578 -
12 330,662 331,590 4,506 -
3,967,944 3,972,450 24,927 -
2,077.21
PRODUCTO C
1 220,441 221,080 639 -
2 220,441 220,200 397 -
3 220,441 220,720 676 -
4 220,441 220,480 715 -
5 220,441 220,640 913 -
6 220,441 220,480 952 -
7 220,441 220,680 1,191 -
8 220,441 220,480 1,230 -
9 220,441 221,040 1,828 -
10 220,441 220,680 2,067 -
11 220,441 220,760 2,386 -
12 220,441 221,080 3,024 -
2,645,296 2,648,320 16,018 -
1,334.81
ES
pormano de obra
pormateria prima
COSTO POR OPERACION

Costo deproduccion
costo real
costo promedio
Periodo DA(A) DA(B)

0 0 1 25,718.15 22,044.13
0 0 2 25,718.15 22,044.13
0 0 3 25,718.15 22,044.13
0 0 4 25,718.15 22,044.13
0 0 5 25,718.15 22,044.13
0 0 6 25,718.15 22,044.13
7 25,718.15 22,044.13
8 25,718.15 22,044.13
9 25,718.15 22,044.13
10 25,718.15 22,044.13
11 25,718.15 22,044.13
12 25,718.15 22,044.13
TOTAL 308,617.84 264,529.57
168.00
168.00 160.00 160.00

318 3 - 315 53,424.00
333 318 - 15 53,280.00
333 333 - - 53,280.00
333 333 - - 53,280.00
303 333 30 - 53,328.00
370 303 - 67 53,280.00
303 370 67 - 53,328.00
333 303 - 30 53,280.00
318 333 15 - 53,424.00
303 318 15 - 53,328.00
351 303 - 48 53,352.00
318 351 33 - 53,424.00
3,916 3,601 160 475 640,008

0
RC %A %B %C INAA
5511.03279028504 0.483 0.414 0.103 72.8469786698079
5495.06558057009 0.482 0.414 0.103 45.6939573396157
5501.09837085513 0.483 0.413 0.104 79.5409360094236
5494.13116114017 0.483 0.414 0.103 82.3879146792315
5493.16395142521 0.483 0.414 0.103 109.234893349039
5488.19674171025 0.483 0.414 0.103 112.081872018847
5487.2295319953 0.483 0.414 0.103 138.928850688655
5481.26232228034 0.483 0.414 0.103 141.775829358463
5480.29511256538 0.483 0.414 0.103 214.622808028271
5465.32790285042 0.483 0.414 0.103 240.469786698079
5459.36069313546 0.483 0.414 0.103 278.316765367887
5451.39348342051 0.483 0.414 0.103 351.163744037694
65807.5576422333 5.79310539544606 4.965514855086 1.241379749468 1867.06433624501

operación
- 110,250,000.00
- 5,250,000.00
- -
- -
13,200,000.00 13,200,000.00
- 23,450,000.00
29,480,000.00 29,480,000.00
- 10,500,000.00
6,600,000.00 6,600,000.00
6,600,000.00 6,600,000.00
- 16,800,000.00
14,520,000.00 14,520,000.00
70,400,000.00 236,650,000.00

124,273,396.19 - 124,273,396.19 104,067.11 53,224,137.93
123,791,548.27 - 123,791,548.27 65,277.08 2,531,524.22
124,085,475.50 - 124,085,475.50 113,629.91 -
123,936,102.65 - 123,936,102.65 117,697.02 -
124,051,746.15 - 124,051,746.15 156,049.85 -
123,936,102.65 - 123,936,102.65 160,116.96 11,320,506.74
124,051,746.15 - 124,051,746.15 198,469.79 -
123,936,102.65 - 123,936,102.65 202,536.90 5,068,965.52
124,273,396.19 - 124,273,396.19 306,604.01 -
124,046,927.67 - 124,046,927.67 343,528.27 -
124,104,749.42 - 124,104,749.42 397,595.38 8,110,454.60
124,273,396.19 - 124,273,396.19 501,662.49 -
1,488,760,690 - 1,488,760,690 2,667,235 80,255,589


106,517,300.46 - 106,517,300.46 44,192.03 45,620,689.66
106,411,293.92 - 106,411,293.92 72,669.77 2,176,041.56
106,054,726.46 - 106,054,726.46 48,290.37 -
106,233,010.19 - 106,233,010.19 50,339.54 -
106,329,379.77 - 106,329,379.77 66,674.42 -
106,233,010.19 - 106,233,010.19 68,723.60 9,703,417.79
106,329,379.77 - 106,329,379.77 85,058.48 -
106,233,010.19 - 106,233,010.19 87,107.65 4,344,827.59
106,517,300.46 - 106,517,300.46 131,299.68 -
106,329,379.77 - 106,329,379.77 147,634.56 -
106,372,746.08 - 106,372,746.08 170,398.02 6,951,636.32
106,517,300.46 - 106,517,300.46 214,590.05 -
1,276,077,838 - 1,276,077,838 1,186,978 68,796,613


26,631,734.35 - 26,631,734.35 30,413.73 11,405,172.41
26,525,727.81 - 26,525,727.81 18,922.70 542,434.22
26,588,368.04 - 26,588,368.04 32,193.58 -
26,559,457.17 - 26,559,457.17 34,035.88 -
26,578,731.08 - 26,578,731.08 43,497.24 -
26,559,457.17 - 26,559,457.17 45,339.54 2,426,075.47
26,583,549.56 - 26,583,549.56 56,705.65 -
26,559,457.17 - 26,559,457.17 58,547.96 1,086,206.90
26,626,915.88 - 26,626,915.88 87,056.93 -
26,583,549.56 - 26,583,549.56 98,423.04 -
26,593,186.52 - 26,593,186.52 113,598.68 1,737,909.08
26,631,734.35 - 26,631,734.35 144,012.41 -
319,021,869 - 319,021,869 762,747 17,197,798

1,488,760,689.65 1,276,077,837.71 319,021,868.67 3,083,860,396.02

- - - -
1,488,760,689.65 1,276,077,837.71 319,021,868.67
2,667,234.77 1,186,978.17 762,747.35 4,616,960.28

80,255,589.00 68,796,612.92 17,197,798.08 166,250,000.00
33,986,217.71 29,130,964.32 7,282,817.97 70,400,000.00
116,909,041.47 99,114,555.40 25,243,363.41
1,605,669,731.12 1,375,192,393.11 344,265,232.07
173.23 346.18 129.99
209.26
la demanda agregada
DA(C) DAT
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
5,511.03 53,273.32
66,132.39 639,279.80
4 5 6 7 8 9
160.00 176.00 144.00 176.00 160.00 168.00
INB INC DMA DMB DMc
61.8688388598348 15.967209714958 25791 22106 5527
101.73767771967 9.9344194299156 25691 22084 5505
67.6065165795044 16.901629144873 25752 22010 5518
70.4753554393392 17.868838859831 25721 22047 5512
93.344194299174 22.836048574789 25745 22067 5516
96.2130331590088 23.803258289747 25721 22047 5512
119.081872018844 29.770468004705 25745 22067 5517
121.950710878678 30.737677719662 25721 22047 5512
183.819549738513 45.70488743462 25791 22106 5526
206.688388598348 51.672097149578 25744 22067 5517
238.557227458183 59.639306864536 25756 22076 5519
300.426066318018 75.606516579494 25791 22106 5527
1661.76943106711 400.44235776671 308969 264830 66208 0

- 117,697.02 124,053,799.67 Costo Penal
- 11,480,623.70 135,416,726.34 Costo real / und
14,231,704.97 14,430,174.76 138,481,920.91
- 5,271,502.42 129,207,605.06
3,186,254.15 3,492,858.16 127,766,254.35
3,186,181.05 3,529,709.32 127,576,636.98
- 8,508,049.98 132,612,799.39
7,009,655.17 7,511,317.66 131,784,713.85
33,986,218 116,909,041 1,605,669,731 % de incremento

- 50,339.54 106,283,349.73 Costo Penal
- 9,772,141.38 116,005,151.57 Costo real / und
12,198,524.86 12,283,583.34 118,612,963.11
- 4,431,935.24 110,664,945.42
2,731,021.60 2,862,321.27 109,379,621.73
2,731,030.17 2,878,664.74 109,208,044.51
- 7,122,034.34 113,494,780.42
6,008,275.86 6,222,865.91 112,740,166.37 % de incremento
29,130,964 99,114,555 1,375,192,393

- 561,356.92 27,087,084.74 Costo de MP por unidad
- 34,035.88 26,593,493.05 Costo Penal
- 2,471,415.01 29,030,872.18 Costo real / und
3,049,770.16 3,106,475.82 29,690,025.38
- 1,144,754.85 27,704,212.02
682,724.25 769,781.18 27,396,697.06
682,788.78 781,211.82 27,364,761.38
- 1,851,507.76 28,444,694.28
1,502,068.97 1,646,081.38 28,277,815.73
7,282,818 25,243,363 344,265,232 % de incremento
Total
3,083,860,396.02
241,266,960.28
3,325,127,356.30
10 11 12
176.00 152.00 168.00
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
3,362
-
-
160.62
0.00
47.62
0.00
160.62
173.23
7.85
1,443
0
0
321.23
0.00
47.62
0.00
321.23
346.18
7.77
952
0
0
120.46
0.00
47.62
0.00
120.46
129.99
7.91

Periodo ALAS PECHUGAS
1 763286.7728057 3816433.864029
2 775889.9436964 3879449.718482
3 788493.1145871 3942465.572935
4 801096.2854778 4005481.427389
5 813699.4563685 4068497.281842
6 826302.6272591 4131513.136296
7 838905.7981498 4194528.990749
8 851508.9690405 4257544.845203
9 864112.1399312 4320560.699656
10 876715.3108219 4383576.554109
11 889318.4817126 4446592.408563
12 901921.6526033 4509608.263016
TOTAL 9991250.552454 49956252.76227 0
Norma estandar
A 0.0667 ALAS Dias habiles/mes (promedio) =
B 0.0333 PECHUGAS Jornada de trabajo =
C Número de turnos =
A B C
cm por hora 0 0 0


ALAS 0 0 2
PECHUGAS 0 0 3
0 0 4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
TOTAL
N DE CAPACIDAD
Capacidad del sis

CAPACIDAD 1 2 3 4 5
168 160 160 160 176
ORMACIÓN DE COSTOS
Costo de operación
A B C

7632867.7280572 7632.8677280572
7758899.43696406 7758.89943696406
7884931.14587091 7884.93114587091
8010962.85477777 8010.96285477777
8136994.56368463 8136.99456368463
8263026.27259149 8263.02627259149
8389057.98149835 8389.05798149835
8515089.69040521 8515.08969040521
8641121.39931206 8641.12139931206
8767153.10821892 8767.15310821892
8893184.81712578 8893.18481712578
9019216.52603264 9019.21652603264
99912505.524539

6 7 8 9
18 22 20 21
8 8 8 8
1 1 1 1
1185 1185 1185 1185
144 176 160 168
10 11 12
22 19 21
8 8 8
1 1 1
1185 1185 1185
176 152 168
Periodo A B C
1 763,286.77 3,816,433.86 -
2 775,889.94 3,879,449.72 -
3 788,493.11 3,942,465.57 -
4 801,096.29 4,005,481.43 -
5 813,699.46 4,068,497.28 -
6 826,302.63 4,131,513.14 -
7 838,905.80 4,194,528.99 -
8 851,508.97 4,257,544.85 -
9 864,112.14 4,320,560.70 -
10 876,715.31 4,383,576.55 -
11 889,318.48 4,446,592.41 -
12 901,921.65 4,509,608.26 -
TOTAL 9,991,250.55 49,956,252.76 -
Poka yoke - - -

Horas para
inventario
1 178,100.247 199,080 20,980
2 181,040.987 189,600 29,539
3 183,981.727 189,600 35,157
4 186,922.467 189,600 37,835
5 189,863.206 208,560 56,531
6 192,803.946 170,640 34,367
7 195,744.686 208,560 47,183
8 198,685.426 189,600 38,097
9 201,626.166 199,080 35,551
10 204,566.906 208,560 39,544
11 207,507.646 180,120 12,157
12 210,448.386 199,080 788
TOTAL 2,331,292 2,332,080 387,729

1 50885.78485371 127214.462134287 0 50885.784853715
2 51725.99624643 129314.990616068 0 45731.781100142
3 52566.20763914 131415.519097849 0 38131.988739281
4 53406.41903185 133516.04757963 0 28927.407771133
5 54246.63042456 135616.576061411 0 18958.038195697
6 55086.84181728 137717.104543192 0 3645.8800129738
7 55927.05320999 139817.633024972 0 0
8 56767.2646027 141918.161506753 0 51439.197825664
9 57607.47599541 144018.689988534 0 41388.673821078
10 58447.68738813 146119.218470315 0 32073.361209204
11 59287.89878084 148219.746952096 0 21614.259990043
12 60128.11017355 150320.275433877 0 18982.370163594
TOTAL 666083.3701636 1665208.42540898 0 351778.74368252
PLAN
PRODUCTO A
1 763,287 853,200 89,913 -
2 775,890 902,490 216,513 -
3 788,493 939,165 367,185 -
4 801,096 963,240 529,329 -
5 813,699 1,055,985 771,614 -
6 826,303 973,515 918,827 -
7 838,906 - 79,921 -
8 851,509 1,014,870 243,282 -
9 864,112 1,016,445 395,615 -
10 876,715 1,046,205 565,105 -
11 889,318 941,400 617,186 -
12 901,922 905,340 620,604 -
10,611,855 5,415,095 -
PRODUCTO B
1 3,816,433.86 4,266,000.00 449,566.14 -
2 3,879,449.72 4,512,420.00 1,082,536.42 -
3 3,942,465.57 4,695,840.00 1,835,910.84 -
4 4,005,481.43 4,816,230.00 2,646,659.42 -
5 4,068,497.28 5,279,880.00 3,858,042.14 -
6 4,131,513.14 4,868,100.00 4,594,629.00 -
7 4,194,528.99 - 400,100.01 -
8 4,257,544.85 5,073,720.00 1,216,275.16 -
9 4,320,560.70 5,082,420.00 1,978,134.46 -
10 4,383,576.55 5,230,920.00 2,825,477.91 -
11 4,446,592.41 4,707,120.00 3,086,005.50 -
12 4,509,608.26 4,526,430.00 3,102,827.24 -
53,059,080.00 27,076,164.23 -
PRODUCTO C
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
ESTADO GEN
pormano de obra
pormateria prima
costo de operación
por defecit
Por inventario
Costo contratación
Costo deproduccion
costo real
costo promedio
Determinación de la de
Periodo DA(A)
0 0 0 1 50,885.78
0 0 0 2 51,726.00
0 0 0 3 52,566.21
0 0 0 4 53,406.42
0 0 0 5 54,246.63
0 0 0 6 55,086.84
7 55,927.05
8 56,767.26
9 57,607.48
10 58,447.69
11 59,287.90
12 60,128.11
TOTAL 666,083.37
1 2 3
Tario Ajuste al pla

- 1 178,100
- 2 181,041
- 3 183,982
- 4 186,922
- 5 189,863
- 6 192,804
- 7 195,745
- 8 198,685
- 9 201,626
- 10 204,567
- 11 207,508
- 12 210,448
- TOTAL 2,331,292

RB RC %A %B %C
127214.462134287 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
114329.452750354 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
95330.9718482028 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
72319.0194278324 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
47394.5954892429 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
9115.70003243434 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000
128581.49456416 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
103476.184552695 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
80181.40302301 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
54037.1499751063 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
47453.4254089836 0 0.286 0.714 0.000
879433.859206308 0 3.14286084456377 7.85713915543623 0

274,075,095.00 - 274,075,095.00 3,746,384.47 -
289,908,617.54 - 289,908,617.54 9,021,386.81 -
301,689,799.10 - 301,689,799.10 15,299,382.04 -
309,423,458.17 - 309,423,458.17 22,055,370.14 -
339,216,114.85 - 339,216,114.85 32,150,601.13 -
312,724,116.40 - 312,724,116.40 38,284,449.99 -
- - 3,330,041.74 -
326,008,663.46 326,008,663.46 10,136,751.36 -
326,514,603.77 326,514,603.77 16,483,953.86 -
336,074,466.44 336,074,466.44 23,546,024.24 -
302,407,752.50 302,407,752.50 25,716,087.51 -
290,824,128.58 290,824,128.58 25,858,518.65 -
3,408,866,816 - 3,408,866,816 225,628,952 -

685,187,737.50 - 685,187,737.50 18,731,922.33 -
724,766,725.38 - 724,766,725.38 45,105,684.06 -
754,226,907.00 - 754,226,907.00 76,496,285.19 -
773,563,463.90 - 773,563,463.90 110,277,475.72 -
848,033,059.42 - 848,033,059.42 160,751,755.64 -
781,894,614.38 - 781,894,614.38 191,442,874.96 -
- - - 16,670,833.68 -
814,920,470.58 - 814,920,470.58 50,678,131.79 -
816,317,829.54 - 816,317,829.54 82,422,269.31 -
840,169,301.42 - 840,169,301.42 117,728,246.22 -
756,038,655.17 - 756,038,655.17 128,583,562.53 -
727,016,955.15 - 727,016,955.15 129,284,468.24 -
8,522,135,719.42 - 8,522,135,719.42 1,128,173,509.67 -

3,408,866,815.81 8,522,135,719.42 - 11,931,002,535.23

- - - -
3,408,866,815.81 8,522,135,719.42 -
- - - -
225,628,951.93 1,128,173,509.67 - 1,353,802,461.60
225,628,951.93 1,128,173,509.67 -
3,634,495,767.75 9,650,309,229.09 -
342.49 181.88 #DIV/0!
208.65
DA(B) DA(C) DAT

127,214.46 - 178,100.25
129,314.99 - 181,040.99
131,415.52 - 183,981.73
133,516.05 - 186,922.47
135,616.58 - 189,863.21
137,717.10 - 192,803.95
139,817.63 - 195,744.69
141,918.16 - 198,685.43
144,018.69 - 201,626.17
146,119.22 - 204,566.91
148,219.75 - 207,507.65
150,320.28 - 210,448.39
1,665,208.43 - 2,331,291.80
4 5 6 7 8 9
189,600.00 208,560.00 170,640.00 208,560.00 189,600.00 199,080.00
GADO
Ajuste al plan de produccion e invenTario Plan maestro de producción

199,080 20,980 - 1 853,200

210,580 50,519 - 2 902,490
219,139 85,676 - 3 939,165
224,757 123,510 - 4 963,240
246,395 180,041 - 5 1,055,985
227,171 214,409 - 6 973,515
242,927 261,592 7 -
236,783 299,689 8 1,014,870
237,177 335,240 9 1,016,445
244,111 374,784 10 1,046,205
219,664 386,941 11 941,400
211,237 387,729 12 905,340
2,719,021 2,721,109 0 TOTAL 10,611,855
5994.21514628534 14985.5378657134 0 56880 142200 0
14434.2188998583 36084.5472496458 0 60166 150414 0
24479.0112607189 61197.0281517972 0 62611 156528 0
35288.592228867 88221.9805721676 0 64216 160541 0
51440.9618043028 128601.404510757 0 70399 175996 0
61255.1199870262 153154.299967566 0 64901 162270 0
5328.06677703726 13336.6669425933 0 0 0 0
16218.8021743359 40542.5054358398 0 67658 169124 0
26374.3261789221 65937.8154473054 0 67763 169414 0
37673.638790796 94182.59697699 0 69747 174364 0
41145.7400099574 102866.850024894 0 62760 156904 0
41373.6298364065 103427.574591016 0 60356 150881 0
361006.323094514 902538.807736285 0 707457 1768636 0

22,055,370.14 331,478,828.31 Costo Penal 0.00
38,284,449.99 351,008,566.39 Costo real / und 342.49
3,330,041.74 3,330,041.74
10,136,751.36 336,145,414.82
16,483,953.86 342,998,557.63
23,546,024.24 359,620,490.68
25,716,087.51 328,123,840.01
25,858,518.65 316,682,647.23
225,628,952 3,634,495,768 % de incremento 6.62

110,277,475.72 883,840,939.61 Costo Penal 0.00
160,751,755.64 1,008,784,815.06 Costo estandar / und 160.62
191,442,874.96 973,337,489.33 Costo real / und 181.88
16,670,833.68 16,670,833.68
50,678,131.79 865,598,602.38
82,422,269.31 898,740,098.85
117,728,246.22 957,897,547.64
128,583,562.53 884,622,217.70
129,284,468.24 856,301,423.38
1,128,173,509.67 9,650,309,229.09 % de incremento 13.24

Costo de MO por unidad 0.00
Costo de MP por unidad 0.00
Costo de mantenimiento 41.67
Costo Penal 0.00
Costo estandar / und 0.00
Costo real / und #DIV/0!
% de incremento #DIV/0!
Total
11,931,002,535.23
1,353,802,461.60
269,850,000.00
13,284,804,996.83
13,554,654,996.83
10 11 12
208,560.00 180,120.00 199,080.00

B
4,266,000
4,512,420
4,695,840
4,816,230
5,279,880
4,868,100
-
5,073,720
5,082,420
5,230,920
4,707,120
4,526,430
53,059,080
8118.468468
8118.918919
Periodo A B C
1 763,286.77 3,816,433.86 - 0
2 775,889.94 3,879,449.72 - 0
3 788,493.11 3,942,465.57 - 0
4 801,096.29 4,005,481.43 - 0
5 813,699.46 4,068,497.28 - 0
6 826,302.63 4,131,513.14 - 0
7 838,905.80 4,194,528.99 -
8 851,508.97 4,257,544.85 -
9 864,112.14 4,320,560.70 -
10 876,715.31 4,383,576.55 -
11 889,318.48 4,446,592.41 -
12 901,921.65 4,509,608.26 -
TOTAL 9,991,250.55 49,956,252.76 -
Poka yoke - - -
Plan global de
Plan de
Periodo DAT
1 178,100.25
2 181,040.99
3 183,981.73
4 186,922.47
5 189,863.21
6 192,803.95
7 195,744.69
8 198,685.43
9 201,626.17
10 204,566.91
11 207,507.65
12 210,448.39
TOTAL 2,331,291.80

1 50885.7849 127214.462134287 0 50885.78485371 127214.462134287
2 51725.9962 129314.990616068 0 51683.78110014 129314.990616068
3 52566.2076 131415.519097849 0 52531.98873928 131222.971848203
4 53406.419 133516.04757963 0 53336.40777113 133341.019427832
5 54246.6304 135616.576061411 0 54143.0381957 135357.595489243
6 55086.8418 137717.104543192 0 54971.88001297 137428.700032434
7 55927.0532 139817.633024972 0 55807.93322296 139521.333057407
8 56767.2646 141918.161506753 0 56607.19782566 141519.49456416
9 57607.476 144018.689988534 0 57437.67382108 143595.184552695
10 58447.6874 146119.218470315 0 58237.3612092 145594.40302301
11 59287.8988 148219.746952096 0 59043.25999004 147608.149975106
12 60128.1102 150320.275433877 0 59848.37016359 149619.425408984
TOTAL 666083.37 1665208.42540898 0 664534.6769055 1661337.73012943
PLAN M
1 763,920.00 3,819,600.00 370,300,000.00

2 775,770.00 3,882,060.00 24,850,000.00
3 789,030.00 3,941,940.00 6,300,000.00
4 801,600.00 4,008,000.00 6,650,000.00
5 813,870.00 4,069,380.00 -
6 826,365.00 4,131,750.00 91,000,000.00
7 839,520.00 4,197,600.00 -
8 851,655.00 4,258,290.00 45,150,000.00
9 864,720.00 4,323,600.00 -
10 877,230.00 4,386,180.00 -
11 889,845.00 4,449,270.00 71,050,000.00
12 902,160.00 4,510,800.00 -
TOTAL 9,995,685.00 49,978,470.00 - 615,300,000.00
PRODUCTO A
1 763,287 763,920 633 -
2 775,890 775,770 513 -
3 788,493 789,030 1,050 -
4 801,096 801,600 1,554 -
5 813,699 813,870 1,724 -
6 826,303 826,365 1,787 -
7 838,906 839,520 2,401 -
8 851,509 851,655 2,547 -
9 864,112 864,720 3,155 -
10 876,715 877,230 3,670 -
11 889,318 889,845 4,196 -
12 901,922 902,160 4,434 -
9,991,251 9,995,685 27,665 -
2,305.40
PRODUCTO B
1 3,816,434 3,819,600 3,166 -
2 3,879,450 3,882,060 5,776 -
3 3,942,466 3,941,940 5,251 -
4 4,005,481 4,008,000 7,769 -
5 4,068,497 4,069,380 8,652 -
6 4,131,513 4,131,750 8,889 -
7 4,194,529 4,197,600 11,960 -
8 4,257,545 4,258,290 12,705 -
9 4,320,561 4,323,600 15,744 -
10 4,383,577 4,386,180 18,348 -
11 4,446,592 4,449,270 21,026 -
12 4,509,608 4,510,800 22,217 -
49,956,253 49,978,470 141,504 -
11,792.02
ES
pormano de obra
pormateria prima
COSTO POR OPERACION

Costo deproduccion
costo real
costo promedio
Periodo DA(A) DA(B)

0 0 1 50,885.78 127,214.46
0 0 2 51,726.00 129,314.99
0 0 3 52,566.21 131,415.52
0 0 4 53,406.42 133,516.05
0 0 5 54,246.63 135,616.58
0 0 6 55,086.84 137,717.10
7 55,927.05 139,817.63
8 56,767.26 141,918.16
9 57,607.48 144,018.69
10 58,447.69 146,119.22
11 59,287.90 148,219.75
12 60,128.11 150,320.28
TOTAL 666,083.37 1,665,208.43
168.00
168.00 160.00 160.00

1,061 3 - 1,058 178,248.00
1,132 1,061 - 71 181,120.00
1,150 1,132 - 18 184,000.00
1,169 1,150 - 19 187,040.00
1,079 1,169 90 - 189,904.00
1,339 1,079 - 260 192,816.00
1,113 1,339 226 - 195,888.00
1,242 1,113 - 129 198,720.00
1,201 1,242 41 - 201,768.00
1,163 1,201 38 - 204,688.00
1,366 1,163 - 203 207,632.00
1,253 1,366 113 - 210,504.00
14,268 13,018 508 1,758 2,332,328

0
RC %A %B %C INAA
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 42.2151462853435
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 34.2188998583006
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 70.0112607188712
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 103.592228867048
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 114.961804302839
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 119.119987026243
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 160.066777037267
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 169.802174335884
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 210.326178922121
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 244.638790795965
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 279.74000995743
0 0.286 0.714 0.000 295.629836406508
0 3.42856755401151 8.57143244598849 0 1844.32309451382

operación
- 370,300,000.00
- 24,850,000.00
- 6,300,000.00
- 6,650,000.00
39,600,000.00 39,600,000.00
- 91,000,000.00
99,440,000.00 99,440,000.00
- 45,150,000.00
18,040,000.00 18,040,000.00
16,720,000.00 16,720,000.00
- 71,050,000.00
49,720,000.00 49,720,000.00
223,520,000.00 838,820,000.00

245,395,507.00 - 245,395,507.00 26,384.47 105,800,000.00
249,202,105.54 - 249,202,105.54 21,386.81 7,095,860.09
253,461,641.13 - 253,461,641.13 43,757.04 1,801,048.13
257,499,526.67 - 257,499,526.67 64,745.14 1,900,000.00
261,441,042.63 - 261,441,042.63 71,851.13 -
265,454,835.77 - 265,454,835.77 74,449.99 26,000,135.13
269,680,642.00 - 269,680,642.00 100,041.74 -
273,578,791.65 - 273,578,791.65 106,126.36 12,899,902.34
277,775,687.00 - 277,775,687.00 131,453.86 -
281,794,298.63 - 281,794,298.63 152,899.24 -
285,846,639.60 - 285,846,639.60 174,837.51 20,300,000.00
289,802,611.00 - 289,802,611.00 184,768.65 -
3,210,933,329 - 3,210,933,329 1,152,702 175,796,946


613,488,767.50 - 613,488,767.50 131,922.33 264,500,000.00
623,520,841.13 - 623,520,841.13 240,684.06 17,754,139.91
633,138,525.54 - 633,138,525.54 218,785.19 4,498,951.87
643,748,816.67 - 643,748,816.67 323,725.72 4,750,000.00
653,607,425.04 - 653,607,425.04 360,505.64 -
663,625,043.23 - 663,625,043.23 370,374.96 64,999,864.87
674,201,605.00 - 674,201,605.00 498,333.68 -
683,949,388.35 - 683,949,388.35 529,381.79 32,250,097.66
694,439,217.50 - 694,439,217.50 656,019.31 -
704,490,565.04 - 704,490,565.04 764,496.22 -
714,623,826.73 - 714,623,826.73 876,062.53 50,750,000.00
724,506,527.50 - 724,506,527.50 925,718.24 -
8,027,340,549 - 8,027,340,549 5,896,010 439,503,054

3,210,933,328.60 8,027,340,549.23 - 11,238,273,877.83

- - - -
3,210,933,328.60 8,027,340,549.23 -
1,152,701.93 5,896,009.67 - 7,048,711.60

175,796,945.69 439,503,054.31 - 615,300,000.00
63,862,691.61 159,657,308.39 - 223,520,000.00
240,812,339.24 605,056,372.36 -
3,451,745,667.85 8,632,396,921.59 -
345.32 172.72 -
201.49
la demanda agregada
DA(C) DAT
- 178,100.25
- 181,040.99
- 183,981.73
- 186,922.47
- 189,863.21
- 192,803.95
- 195,744.69
- 198,685.43
- 201,626.17
- 204,566.91
- 207,507.65
- 210,448.39
- 2,331,291.80
4 5 6 7 8 9
160.00 176.00 144.00 176.00 160.00 168.00
INB INC DMA DMB DMc
105.53786571337 0 50928 127320 0
192.547249645781 0 51718 129402 0
175.028151797218 0 52602 131398 0
258.980572167668 0 53440 133600 0
288.404510757158 0 54258 135646 0
296.299967565661 0 55091 137725 0
398.666942593234 0 55968 139920 0
423.50543583979 0 56777 141943 0
524.815447305387 0 57648 144120 0
611.596976989997 0 58482 146206 0
700.850024893647 0 59323 148309 0
740.574591016339 0 60144 150360 0
4716.80773628525 0 666379 1665949 0 2332328

- 1,844,805.17 255,306,446.30 Costo de mantenimiento
- 1,964,745.14 259,464,271.81 Costo Penal
- 26,074,585.13 291,529,420.90 Costo real / und
28,411,210.39 28,511,252.13 298,191,894.13
- 13,006,028.69 286,584,820.34
5,154,260.08 5,285,713.94 283,061,400.94
4,777,119.42 4,930,018.66 286,724,317.29
- 20,474,837.51 306,321,477.11
14,205,816.01 14,390,584.66 304,193,195.66
63,862,692 240,812,339 3,451,745,668 % de incremento

- 4,717,737.05 637,856,262.60 Costo de mantenimiento
- 5,073,725.72 648,822,542.38 Costo Penal
- 65,370,239.82 728,995,283.05 Costo real / und
71,028,789.61 71,527,123.29 745,728,728.29
- 32,779,479.46 716,728,867.81
12,885,739.92 13,541,759.23 707,980,976.73
11,942,880.58 12,707,376.80 717,197,941.84
- 51,626,062.53 766,249,889.26
35,514,183.99 36,439,902.23 760,946,429.73 % de incremento
159,657,308 605,056,372 8,632,396,922
Total
11,238,273,877.83
845,868,711.60
12,084,142,589.44
10 11 12
176.00 152.00 168.00
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1,787
-
-
321.23
0.00
41.67
0.00
321.23
345.32
7.50
8,889
0
0
160.62
0.00
41.67
0.00
160.62
172.72
7.54
Nivel 1
Sal Agua Fosfato Ajo

Nivel 2 100 gr 100 ml 30 ml 2 ajos Con un paquete de cada ingrediente se alcanzan a marinar
1 Mes 0 0 0
t -1 0 1
RB 4579720
STOCK 457972
Inventario 0 457972
PAQUETE DE POLLO RN 5037692
MARINADO PRO 5037692
PCO 5037692 4662900.9
Cs 201.5 922813580
Cm 49000 22440628000
CT/P 23363441580
RB 4579720
STOCK 457972
Inventario 0 457972
ETIQUETA
RN 5037692
PRO 5037692
PCO 5037692 4662901
RB 4579720
STOCK 457972
Inventario 0 457972
VINIPEL
RN 5037692
PRO 5037692
PCO 5037692 4662901 4738520
RB 4579720
STOCK 457972
Inventario 0 457972
BANDEJA
RN 5037692
PRO 5037692
PCO 5037692 4662901 4738520
RB 915944
STOCK 91595
Inventario 0 91595
SAL
RN 1007539
PRO 1007539
PCO 1007539 932579
RB 915944
STOCK 91595
Inventario 0 91595
AJO
RN 1007539
PRO 1007539
PCO 1007539
RB 915944
STOCK 91595
Inventario 0 91595
AGUA
RN 1007539
PRO 1007539
PCO 1007539
RB 915944
STOCK 91595
Inventario 0 91595
FOSFATO
RN 1007539
PRO 1007539
PCO 1007539
POLLO MARINADO
NIVEL 0 Paquete de pollo marinado 1kg
Mezcla Marinada Pollo Etiqueta Vinipel Bandeja

1000 gr 1 1 1
1mes 2 meses 2 meses
e cada ingrediente se alcanzan a marinar 5 bandejas, por lo que la demanda se divide entre 5.
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
4655339 4730958 4806577 4882196 4957815 5033434 5109053
465533.9 473095.8 480657.7 488219.6 495781.5 503343.4 510905.3
465533.9 473095.8 480657.7 488219.6 495781.5 503343.4 510905.3
4662900.9 4738519.9 4814138.9 4889757.9 4965376.9 5040995.9 5116614.9
4662900.9 4738519.9 4814138.9 4889757.9 4965376.9 5040995.9 5116614.9
4738519.9 4814138.9 4889757.9 4965376.9 5040995.9 5116614.9 5192233.9
938050808.5 953288037 968525266 983762494 998999723 1.014E+09 1.029E+09
22811161100 2.318E+10 2.355E+10 2.392E+10 2.429E+10 2.466E+10 2.503E+10
23749211908.5 2.413E+10 2.452E+10 2.491E+10 2.529E+10 2.568E+10 2.606E+10
4655339 4730958 4806577 4882196 4957815 5033434 5109053
465534 473096 480658 488220 495782 503344 510906
465534 473096 480658 488220 495782 503344 510906
4662901 4738520 4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615
4662901 4738520 4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615
4738520 4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615 5192234
4655339 4730958 4806577 4882196 4957815 5033434 5109053
465534 473096 480658 488220 495782 503344 510906
465534 473096 480658 488220 495782 503344 510906
4662901 4738520 4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615
4662901 4738520 4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615
4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615 5192234 5267853
4655339 4730958 4806577 4882196 4957815 5033434 5109053
465534 473096 480658 488220 495782 503344 510906
465534 473096 480658 488220 495782 503344 510906
4662901 4738520 4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615
4662901 4738520 4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615
4814139 4889758 4965377 5040996 5116615 5192234 5267853
931067 946191 961315 976439 991563 1006686 1021810
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322 1038447
931067 946191 961315 976439 991563 1006686 1021810
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
931067 946191 961315 976439 991563 1006686 1021810
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
931067 946191 961315 976439 991563 1006686 1021810
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
93107 94620 96132 97644 99157 100669 102181
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
932579 947704 962827 977951 993076 1008198 1023322
Periodo ALAS PECHUGAS
1 763286.773 3816433.86 4579720.64 4579720
2 775889.944 3879449.72 4655339.66 4655339
3 788493.115 3942465.57 4730958.69 4730958
4 801096.285 4005481.43 4806577.71 4806577
5 813699.456 4068497.28 4882196.74 4882196
6 826302.627 4131513.14 4957815.76 4957815
7 838905.798 4194528.99 5033434.79 5033434
8 851508.969 4257544.85 5109053.81 5109053
9 864112.14 4320560.7 5184672.84 5184672
10 876715.311 4383576.55 5260291.86 5260291
11 889318.482 4446592.41 5335910.89 5335910
12 901921.653 4509608.26 5411529.92 5411529
TOTAL 9991250.55 49956252.8 28612609.2 28612609
9 10 11 12
5184672 5260291 5335910 5411529
518467.2 526029.1 533591 1082305.8
518467.2 526029.1 533591 200
5192233.9 5267852.9 5343471.9 5960243.8
5192233.9 5267852.9 5343471.9 5960243.8
5267852.9 5343471.9 5960243.8 0
1.045E+09 1.06E+09 1.075E+09 1.09E+09
2.54E+10 2.578E+10 2.615E+10 9800000
2.645E+10 2.684E+10 2.722E+10 1.1E+09
5184672 5260291 5335910 5411529
518468 526030 533591 541153
518468 526030 533591 200
5192234 5267853 5343471 5419091
5192234 5267853 5343471 5419091
5267853 5343471 5419091 0
5184672 5260291 5335910 5411529
518468 526030 533591 541153
518468 526030 533591 200
5192234 5267853 5343471 5419091
5192234 5267853 5343471 5419091
5343471 5419091 0 0
5184672 5260291 5335910 5411529
518468 526030 533591 541153
518468 526030 533591 200
5192234 5267853 5343471 5419091
5192234 5267853 5343471 5419091
5343471 5419091 0 0
1036934 1052058 1067182 1082305
103694 105206 106719 108231
103694 105206 106719 200
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1053570 1068695 1083817 0
1036934 1052058 1067182 1082305
103694 105206 106719 108231
103694 105206 106719 108231
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1036934 1052058 1067182 1082305
103694 105206 106719 108231
103694 105206 106719 200
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1036934 1052058 1067182 1082305
103694 105206 106719 108231
103694 105206 106719 200
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817
1038447 1053570 1068695 1083817

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SUPUESTOS

Proporción por Proporción

Jan-15 8.77% 0.0877 Jan-15 5.22% Jan-15

Jul-15 8.13% 7 4020.5893121817 3000

May-15 8.10% 5 6058.59479167 6000

Jun-15 8.80% 6 6577.90291667 5000

960,165.62 0.16 5078.86015683362 -39.20

Error porcentual 200000

-2,453.40 2,453.40 6,019,155.19 1.19

-674.48 674.48 454,930.01 0.21

-322,231.37 378,047.02 14,892,536,042.39 104.67

Proporción por demanda Proporción por d

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS DEMAND

Proporción por demanda Proporción por d

Proporción por demanda

Proporción por demanda

Proporción por demanda

1,131,799.60 0.50 1156.57133765144 -101.29

Error porcentual 200000

961.31 961.31 924,123.65 0.33

-1,210.63 1,210.63 1,465,623.21 1.20

-320,557.21 349,754.96 15,010,781,104.01 270.09

Proporción por demanda Proporción por d

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS DEMAND

Proporción por demanda Proporción por d

Proporción por demanda

Proporción por demanda

Proporción por demanda

2,800,020.51 0.32 3894.8109375 -375.06

Error porcentual 200000

373.77 373.77 139,704.20 0.05

87.41 87.41 7,640.14 0.01

-305,381.15 318,631.74 13,747,437,475.40 50.88

Proporción por demanda Proporción por d

DEMANDA VS PRONOSTICOS DEMAND

Proporción por demanda Proporción por d

Proporción por demanda

Proporción por demanda

Proporción por demanda

DEMANDA vs PRONÓSTICO DEMANDA

DEMANDA PRONÓSTICO DEMANDA

PER. PRONOSTICA PERIODO DEMANDA ST Gt Ft

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN 0.947104053

-3,185.91 3,185.91 10,150,002.91 1.23

1,644.49 38,292.55 61,009,145.52 6.82

Plan pronóstico de produccion

Nota: El costo incremento por hora es el comportamiento promedio de liquidacion

Niveles de inventario Periodo

Capacidad del sis

Costo por cambio en la fuerza de trabajo mejor llamado rotación

Capacidad del sistema

OPERARIOS A CONTRATAR 299 CAPACIDAD DISPONIBLE POR PERIODO =

Plan de produccion e invenTario

Demandas agregadas Requerimientos

Tario Ajuste al plan

Requerimientos Porcentajes de desagregación

PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCION E INVENTARIO Y PLAN MAESTRO DE COSTOS

costo de manufactura costo de operacion

costo de manufactura costo de operacion

costo de manufactura costo de operacion

ESTADO GENERAL DE COSTOS DE PRODUCCIÓN

producto A producto b producto C subtotal

1,768,087,926.94 825,111,554.02 412,553,367.77 3,005,752,848.73