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Chap 2 Problems
Solutions
300 SBC
1. 37.5 SBC/W last week
8W
240 SBC
40 SBC/W this week
6W
Higher productivity this week.
.9 .9
.9 .9
b. [.90 + .10(.90)] [.90 + .10(.90)] = .9801
c. [.90 + .99(.10)(.90)]2 = .9783
3. X3 = .92x = .9726
P: .99 = [(1 – .99) x .99] .96 + [(1 – .96) x .96] .93 + [(1 – .93) x .93]
= .9999 = .9984 = .9951
Overall: .9999 x .9984 x .9951 = .9934
b. In #1 the system will fail if any one original and any one backup fails.
In #2 the system will fail only if a component and its backup fails.
c. Space for a line versus space for individual backups, ease of shifting to backups when needed,
possible cost differences.
8. a. RL1 = .8839 RL2 = .8839
FL1 = .1161 FL2 = .1161
If the switch is 100% reliable:
Rsystem = 1 – (.1162)2 = .98652
If the switch is 98% reliable and the switch fails:
Pfailure = (FL1)(Fswitch)(RL2)
Pfailure = (.1161)(.02)(.8839) = .0021
Therefore, with a 98% reliable switch:
Rsystem = .98652 – .0021 = .98442
The decrease in reliability is .0021
b. RA = .9999 RB = .9984 RC = .9951
If the reliability of all three switches are 100%:
Rsystem = (.9999)(.9984)(.9951) = .9934
If each of the three switches are 98% reliable:
Rcomponent = Rcomp(100) – [(Fc1)(Fswitch)(Rc2)]
where:
Rcomponent = reliability of the component with 98% reliable switch
Rcomp(100) = reliability of the component with 100% reliable switch
FC1 = probability of failure associated with the first unit of a given component
F C1 = probability of failure associated with the second (backup) unit of a given component
Fswitch = probability of failure associated with the switch
RA = .9999 – [(.01)(.02)(.99)] = .99970
RB = .9984 – [(.04)(.02)(.96)] = .99763
RB = .9951 – [(.07)(.02)(.93)] = .9938
9. x = reliability
x5 = .98; x = .996 [trial and error]
10. [x + (1 – x)x](x4)
= x5 + (1 – x)x5
x = .995
c. 1– (e–T/MTBF)
T
(1) 50% .7 21 mo.
(2) 85% 1.9 57
(3) 95% 3.0 90
(4) 99% 4.6 138
0 9 12 21
16. = 41 mo. years
= 4 mo.
38 41
a. 38 : z .75. Probability = .2266 (From App. B Table B)
4
40 41
b. 40 T 45 : z .25. Probability = .0987 (From App. B Table A)
4
45 41 .3413
z 45 1.00. Probability = (From App. B Table A)
4 .4400
41
c. 2 months is .5 = 2(.1915) = .3830 (App. B Table A)
.0987
.1915
.1915
.3413
.2266
38 41 40 41 45 39 41 43
17. = 6 years
= .5 years
56
a. (1) 5 yr : z 2.00 .0013
.5 .9772
1 .0228 .9772
–2 0 0 3
66
(2) 6 yr : z 0.00
.5
.5000 .5000
7.5 6 0 –4 0
(3) 7.5 yr : z 3.00
.5
1 .9987 .0013
46
b. 4 yr : z 4.00
.5
Therefore, approximately zero.
2% 5%
MTBF 50 300
19. Availability a. .93 b. .98
MTBF MTR 40 3 300 6
MTBF 50
20. Availability a. .962
MTBF MTR 50 2
142
21. Availability A .953
142 7
100
22. Current Availability .962
100 4
a. Increase in MTBF = (.05)(100) = 5 hrs.
New MTBF = 100 + 5 = 105 hrs.
105 105
Availability .9633
100 4 109
b. Reduction in MTR = (.1)(4 hrs.) = .4 hrs.
New MTR = 4 hrs – .4 hrs = 3.6 hrs.
100
Availability .9653
100 3.6
Since .9653 > .9633, designer should choose to reduce MTR.
X 2 2.7
23. a. Z 2.33
.3
P ( Z 2.33) .5 .4901 .0099
We would expect approximately 1% of the batteries to fail before the warranty period ends.
b. Since 30 months = 2.5 years, X = 2.5.
X 2.5 2.7
Z .667
.3
P ( Z .667) .5 .2486 .2533
We would expect approximately 25% of the batteries to fail before the warranty period ends.
Therefore, for each individual battery, the company would have to charge more than 25.33%
(price of the battery + $5).
c. In addition to price of the battery, the company should consider:
1. Possible lost future sales of this type of battery as well as lost sales of other products
manufactured and sold by the company due to a high volume of replaced batteries;
2. Possible loss of good will, reputation, poor image in the market due to higher failure rate;
3. The capacity to handle the additional load of battery production and battery exchanges due to
failures;
4. The amount of additional business generated as a result of adding the premium battery. (In
other words, the company must consider the trade-off between the additional business
generated from the premium battery vs. the cannibalization of the current base and the
existing batteries.)
Actual output
2. Efficiency 80%
Effective capacity
Utilization = .4
Actual output
Utilization
Design capacity
Actual output 8
Design Capacity 20 jobs
Effective capacity .4
3. FC = $9,200/month
VC = $ .70/unit
Rev = $ .90/unit
FC $9,200
a. Q BEP 46,000 units
Rev VC $.90 $.70
b. Profit = Rev x Q – (FC + VC x Q)
1. P61,000 = $.90(61,000) [$9,200 + $.70(61,000)] = $3,000
2. P87,000 = $.90(87,000) [$9,200 + $.70(87,000)] = $8,200
Cost TC
$50,000
$9,200
0
100,000
Volume
1.
(units)
4. FC Rev VC
A: $40,000 $15/unit $10/unit
B: $30,000 $15/unit $11/unit
FC $40,000
a. Q BEP Q BEP,A 8,000 units
Rev VC $15 / unit $10 / unit
$30,000
Q BEP , B 7,500 units
$15 / unit $11 / unit
b. Profit = Q(Rev – VC) – FC
[A’s Profit] [B’s Profit]
Q($15 – $10) – $40,000 = Q($16 – $12) – $30,000
Solving, Q = 10,000 units
c. PA = 12,000($15 – $10) – $40,000 = $20,000 [A is higher]
PB = 12,000($16 – $12) – $30,000 = $18,000
5. Demand = 30,000 = Q
FC = $25,000
VC = $.37/pen
a. Rev = $1.00/pen
FC $25,000
Q BEP 39,683 units
Rev VC $1.00 $.37
b. specified profit = $15,000
specified profit FC $15,000 $25,000
Q 30,000
Rev VC Rev $.37 / unit
$140
Plan A
Weekly cost
$120
Plan C
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
0 200 300
Minutes of daytime calls
c. Plan A is optimal for zero to less than 178 minutes. Plan C is optimal from 178 minutes or
more. Plan B is never optimal.
d. A: $20 + $.45D + $.20E
B: $20 + $.55D + $.15E
Setting these equal and solving, D = 1/2 E. Thus, if E = 100 minutes, then D = 50 minutes.
Hence, for 1/3 daytime minutes, the agent would be indifferent between the two plans.
Answer: For Q less than 63,333, the total cost is less for Vendor.
For larger quantities, Process B is better.
BEP: 7Q = 190,000 + 4Q; Q = 63,333
Cost ($000)
500 A B
400
300
200
Vendor
100
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Q(000)
8. Source FC VC
Internal 1 $200,000 $17
Internal 2 240,000 14
Vendor A 20 up to 30,000 units
Vendor B 22 for 1 to 1,000; 18 each if larger amount
Vendor C 21 for 1 to 1,000; 19 each for additional units.
186,000
NA 1.24 2 machine
150,000
208,000
NB 1.38 2 machine
150,000
122,000
NC .81 1 machine
150,000
purchase 1 machine, because even at the upper limit (120) we have not reached the break-even
12. R = $5.95, VC = $3. One line would have a fixed cost of $20 (6,000 300) per hour and two lines
would have a fixed cost of $35 (10,500 300) per hour.
Volume No. of lines Profit
14 1 $21.30 = 14 (5.95 – 3) – 20
15 1 24.25 = 15 (5.95 – 3) – 20
16 2 12.20 = 16 (5.95 – 3) – 35
17 2 15.15 = 17 (5.95 – 3) – 35
18 2 18.10 = 18 (5.95 – 3) – 35
Choose one line. Assumption: Little or negligible cost of manufacturing.
13. a. 11/hr.
b. Operation 3 by 1 hour. Beyond that, Operation 1 would become the limiting (bottleneck)
operation.
14. a. 15 units per hour (10 upper branch and 5 lower branch).
b. Increase #1 by 5 units and #2 by 10 units, yielding an upper branch capacity of 20/hr, and a
total capacity of 20 + 5 = 25/hr.
2) Analyze decisions from right to left (i.e., work backwards from the end of the tree towards the
root). For instance, begin with decision 2 and choose expansion because it has a higher present
value ($450,000 vs. $50,000).
3) Compute the expected value of the ends of the remaining branches (numbered 1 to 5 in the
diagram), and then determine the expected value for the two initial alternatives.
(1).4 x $400,000 = $160,000
(2)(eliminated) $430,000 (expected value if build small is chosen)
(3).6 x $450,000 = $270,000
(4).4 x –$10,000 = $–4,000
(5).6 x $800,000 = $480,000 $476,000 (expected value if build large is chosen)
4) Since the expected value of building a large plant has the higher expected value, select the
large plant alternative.
Low High
Payoff
800
Build Large
-10
1.0 .54 0
P (low)
11. 1/3
0
1/3 60
1
1/3
90
50
.30 40
49
.50
4 44
Alternative A 60
.20
49 1/3
(45)
1/3
2 45
1/3 99
Alternative B 40
.30
46 40
.50
5 50
.20 30
1/2
45 40
3
EV1 = (1/3)(0) + (1/3)(60) + (1/3)(90) = 50 1/2
50
EV2 = (1/3)(–45) + (1/3)(45) + (1/3)(99) = 33
EV3 = (1/2)(40) + (1/2)(50) = 45
Lease $100
Build Small
2
Demand High (.50) Expand
1 $500
Demand Low (.50) $40
Build Large
Maximin:
The worst possible payoff for small would occur with expanding under high demand: $500k. The worst
possible payoff for large would be $40k for low demand. Hence, build a small warehouse.
Maximax:
The best possible payoff would occur with a large warehouse ($2,000k), so build a large warehouse.
Laplace:
Assume the probabilities of low and high demand to be .50 each. The expected payoffs would be:
Minimax regret:
Small: Large:
Large = $2,000k Small = $700k
Small = $500k Large = $40k
$1,500k $660k
Hence, build a large warehouse.
Solutions
1. OT = 10.4 minutes NT = OT x PR = 10.4 x 1.25 = 13.0 minutes
s = 1.2 minutes ST = NT x AFjob = 13.0 x 1.16 = 15.08 minutes
PR = 1.25
AFjob = 1.16
2. OT = 1.2 minutes
PR = .95
A = 10%
1
AFday 1.111
1 A
a. OT = 1.2 minutes
b. NT = OT x PR = 1.2 x .95 = 1.14 minutes
c. ST = NT x AFday = 1.14 x 1.111 = 1.27 minutes
3. Element PR OT NT AFjob ST
1 .90 .46 .414 1.15 .476
2 .85 1.505 1.280 1.15 1.472
3 1.10 .83 .913 1.15 1.050
4 1.00 1.16 1.160 1.15 1.334
4. Cycle
1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum Average
b.
x .83
2 2
s .034 zs 2(.034)
n 67.12, round to 67
z 2.00 ax .01(.83)
A .01
2 2
zs 2(.034)
c. e = .01 minutes n 46.24, round to 47
e .01
6
12. p .12 n=(z/e)2[p(1 – p)] = (1.96/.05) 2[.12(.88)] = 163
50
z = 1.96