Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering 4 (2014) 161-171 D DAVID PUBLISHING

Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS

Signal by Using Geometrical Model

Yuli Chen
Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

Abstract: To analyze the detection probability of shipborne AIS (automatic identification system) signal from space, a mathematical
model dependent upon three factors of message collision avoidance, power of signal received by satellite and interference ratio of
signal received is presented in the paper. The altitude and footprint area of the AIS satellite are discussed to overcome the collision of
messages transmitted in the different time slots from different SOTDMA (self organizing time division multiple access) cell areas,
but arrive at the same time slot due to the different signal path lengths. The simulated result shows that compared to the normal LEO
(low earth orbit) satellite system, on average the maximum signal coverage area and the maximum FOV (field of view) of the AIS
satellite system are reduced by 74% and 38%. The majority of power of signal transmitted from shipborne 12W-power AIS
transmitters located within the maximum signal coverage area may be received with the sufficient margin of power of signal by the
LEO satellite, but the space-based AIS system generally suffers from the insufficient CIR (carrier to co-channel interference ratio) of
signal received since around 95% pairs of message simultaneously received by satellites may not be correctly decoded. The
insufficient CIR of signal received is the bottleneck for the high message detection probability. Therefore, the measure of separating
the collision messages should be further taken by the space-based AIS system to increase the detection probability.

Key words: AIS, LEO satellite, detection probability, message collision, distance delay, signal margin, CIR.

1. Introduction The space-based AIS system is defined as the

system of specialized micro-size satellites carrying
The maritime AIS (automatic identification system)
AIS transceivers in the LEO (low earth orbit) to
is initially defined as a navigation broadcasting system
directly capture the AIS messages and transfer such to
operating on the VHF (very high frequency) radio
the shore station so that the global surveillance of
wave for the information communication between ship
maritime traffic is really achieved from the space.
to ship and ship to shore in real time. The
This concept has continuously attracted Norway, the
International Convention on the SOLAS (safety of life
United States, Canada, etc. to make every effort to
at sea) has mandated that vessels engaged on
carry out the relative research with the great
international voyages should carry AIS mobile
investment since its inception in 2003 [1]. Technical
equipment (known as Class A shipborne equipment)
researches regarding reception of AIS messages from
onboard by the end of 2004. Practice shows that the
space, including link budget, message detection
introduction of AIS into the maritime community has
probability [2, 3], and satellite antenna design,
made the navigational information exchange between
Doppler shift and atmospheric interference [4, 5] have
ship to ship and ship to shore more appropriate and
been widely investigated.
more reliable and furthered the enhancement of
However, the abovementioned researches regarding
navigational safety and marine environmental
message detection probability are directly conducted
protection.
based on a constant altitude of the satellite orbit, such
Corresponding author: Yuli Chen, associate professor, as 600 km or 800 km and the fixed ship number
research fields: marine navigation, maritime education and within the satellite footprint area. Actually, the
training. E-mail: ylchen@shmtu.edu.cn.
162 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model
performance of space-based AIS system is highly
dependent upon the determination of the satellite orbit
altitude. The footprint area, power margin of signal
received, message detection probability, etc., vary
with the satellite orbit altitude and become unusual if
AIS technical characteristics is also considered. The
paper based on the AIS technical characteristics
presents the mathematical model that AIS signal can
be correctly received and decoded from space relative
to the factors of message collision avoidance, power
of signal received and interference ratio of signal
received. Comparison of coverage area between
space-based AIS satellite and normal LEO satellite as
well as the quantity of power of signal received and
CIR of signal received that are both required within
the available AIS satellite footprint area are analyzed
as well at the various altitudes of satellite orbits so as
to demonstrate the appropriate orbit altitude for
space-based AIS system or the system performance
properties which would be achieved as the satellite
altitude remains constant.
2. AIS Technical Characteristics
Totally 27 different types of messages can be
transmitted by using the various AIS application
platforms, such as Class A AIS equipment, Class B
AIS equipment, AIS base station, SAR (search and
rescue) aircraft AIS equipment, AtoN (AIS Aids to
Navigation), etc., between ship to ship, ship to shore
and ship to space [6]. Each AIS application platform
is able to transmit and receive several types of
messages. For the Class A shipborne equipment which
is mandatorily required to be fitted on the SOLAS
Convention vessels, the message’s information
exchanged is classified into four categories, i.e., static,
dynamic, voyage related and short safety related. The
details including the component and the refreshing
transmission rate for these four categories of messages
are illustrated in Ref. [7].
To enable the automatic and autonomous operation
for AIS without any organization of the base station
and simultaneously avoid the collisions between
messages transmitted by different AIS application
platforms, the communication protocol so-called
SOTDMA (self organizing time division multiple
access) is applied. Fig. 1 shows the principle of the
SOTDMA which specifies that one-minute, also
referred to as one frame, is divided into 2,250 slots for
each of two designated VHF channels, AIS1-87B
(161.975 MHz) and AIS2-88B (162.025 MHz), to
alternatively transmit but simultaneously receive AIS
messages. Each time slot is then equal to 26.67 ms
long for 256-bit information communication. AIS
automatically and autonomously determines the slots
unused to transmit its messages at the rate of 9.6 Kb/s
using a binary GMSK (gaussian minimum shift
keying) modulation and meanwhile reserves other
slots for next message transmission. Multiple slots for
the transmission of the longer AIS message are also
allowed. The SOTDMA scheme that requires AIS to
reserve their transmission slots ahead of time is able to
ensure that AIS messages are not transmitted at the
same time slots within a SOTDMA cell. Moreover, as
a channel approaches an overloaded state, the
SOTDMA algorithm is capable of producing a
progressive reduction of the SOTDMA cell size in
order to drop AIS reports from vessels farthest from
the center of operations, while maintaining the
integrity of the (more important) closer range reports.
Fig. 1 Principle of SOTDMA protocol.
 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model 163

The detailed technical characteristics for the Class
A AIS equipment are summarized in Table 1 [8].
3. Two Scenarios for Space-Based AIS
Message Collision
As previously stated, AIS message time slots
conflict is able to effectively be avoided during the
communication between ships as the SOTDMA
scheme which is designed for the coordination of the
time slot usage in a given area (a circular area with the
radius of approximate 40 nm) is applied. However,
this is not the case for the space-based AIS system. As
the footprint area from the AIS sensor installed on a
LEO satellite covers a number of SOTDMA cell areas,
there is no coordination between these cell areas in
general. Therefore, time slots conflicts may occur for
many AIS messages received by a LEO satellite at the
same time. The first issue to be considered for
designing the space-based AIS system is then that AIS
messages from different SOTDMA cell areas may
simultaneously arrive at the satellite so that AIS
messages collision arises, which will lose the content
of AIS message.
In theory, two scenarios of space-based AIS
message collision exist. Scenario one is that AIS
messages are transmitted at the same time slots from
different SOTDMA cell areas with the same signal
path lengths. Regarding this case, many AIS messages
transmitted from different AIS-equipped ships located
in the different SOTDMA cell areas are received by a
LEO satellite at the same time slot as both their
transmission time slots and distance from each ship to
satellite are exactly same. Fig. 2 shows two messages
collide in this case. Ship A and ship B are located in
different SOTDMA cell areas due to the sufficient
space between them but both cell areas are within the
coverage of AIS satellite footprint. As the
corresponding distance between satellite to ship A and
ship B is exactly same. If each transmits a message at
the same time slot and these two messages will
undoubtedly also arrive at the satellite at the same
time slot, which will cause the message collide.
Scenario two is that AIS messages are transmitted
in the different time slots from different SOTDMA
cell areas, but arrive at the same time slot due to the
different signal path lengths. The only difference of
this case with the previous case is that even the
massage transmitted by ship A and ship B,
respectively, at different time slots, but will also suffer
from the collision when received by satellite because
the difference of transmission time slot is
compensated by the difference of distance of each ship
to satellite, see Fig. 3, which only shows two
messages collide.

Table 1 Class A AIS equipment technical characteristics parameter.

Parameter Characteristics standard
Baseband 161.975 MHz and 162.025 MHz (87 B and 88 B)
Wavelength 1.85 m (of 162 MHz)
Transmitter power 2 W or 12.5 W (by default)
Bandwidth 12.5 kHz or 25.0 kHz (on high seas)
Modulation GMSK
Modulation index 0.25 for 12.5 kHz or 0.5 for 25 kHz
Bit rate 9,600 bits/s ±50 ppm
Frame length 1 min
Slot length 26.7 ms or 256 bits
Capacity 4,500 slots per min for two channels
-107 dBm for 25 kHz bandwidth under normal test conditions
RS (receiver sensitivity)
-104 dBm for 12.5 kHz bandwidth under normal test conditions
CIRT (CIR threshold) 10 dB
164 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model
Fig. 2 Scenario one for AIS message collision.
Fig. 3 Scenario two for AIS message collision.
4. Mathematical Model for Correct
Reception of AIS Signal from Space
Considering the AIS SOTDMA scheme and the
radio signal knowledge, the following conditions
should be simultaneously met provided that shipborne
AIS message can be received and properly decoded by
the LEO satellite:
The messages collision is avoided;
The power of signal received by satellites is of
sufficient margin;
The co-channel interference ratio of signal received
by satellites is satisfied.
The mathematical model that AIS signal can be
correctly received and decoded from space hence can
be expressed by
F  M P T (1)
where, F represents the set that AIS message can be
received and properly decoded by satellites, M means
the set that messages collision does not occur, P is the
set that power of AIS signal received by satellites is of
sufficient margin, and T is the set that the AIS signal
received by satellites meets the requirements of the
co-channel interference ratio.
The probability and the reliability of AIS signal
reception from space is apparently the function of the
message collision avoidance, power of signal received
and interference ratio of signal received. As far as the
avoidance of message collision is concerned, the
research associated with scenario one is focusing on
the statistical analysis with respect to the ship’s
number, swath width and satellite observation time [2,
4]. The paper will consider the massage detection
probability of scenario one based on the method of the
avoidance of scenario two by using the AIS message
buffer structure.
5. AIS Message Buffer Structure
AIS message data transfer uses a bit-oriented
protocol based on the HDLC (high-level data link
control). The transmission packet with the total length
of default packet is 256 bits equivalent to one slot
including seven parts, i.e., ramp up, training sequence,
start flag, data, frame check sequence, end flag and
buffer, shown in Fig. 4. Among them the buffer part is
24 bits long consisting of bit stuffing, distance delay,
repeater delay and synchronization jitter. And the
distance delay with 12 bits long equivalent to 202.16
nautical miles (nm) is reserved for avoiding AIS
messages collisions within one SOTDMA cell area due
 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model
Fig. 4 AIS message buffer structure.
to the different signal path lengths. That is to say in
theory the SOTDMA protocol provides the Class A
AIS equipment with the protection for the difference
of a propagation range up to 202.16 nm.
6. Relation between Altitude and Footprint
Area of AIS Satellite
Based on AIS message structure, it is concluded
that due to the 12-bit part of distance delay reserved in
AIS message structure, AIS messages collision is still
able to be avoided as long as these signal transmission
path differences are not more than 202.16 nm even
though these messages are simultaneously received
from different SOTDMA cells. Fig. 5 shows the
geometrical relations among the satellite altitude,
footprint area and signal path difference, where point
S, G, O represent LEO satellite, satellite’s projection
on ground surface (known as the subsatellite point),
earth’s center, respectively.
Supposing point A and S1 are two AIS transmitters,
then their signal path difference ( h ) can be defined
by:
h  SA  SS1 (2)
And if point A and B are just located on the edge of
the satellite footprint area, in order to avoid the
collision of message transmitted in the different time
slots from the different SOTDMA cell areas, then the
maximum signal path difference ( hmax ) between all
165
AIS transmitters within the satellite footprint range is
identified by:
hmax  SA  SG (3)
where, SG is the satellite altitude above the ground
surface. If point B is the intersection point between
SA and the arc of BG relative to point S as the
center, i.e., SB is equal to SG , hence
hmax  SA  SB  202.16 nm (4)
Then according to the space geometry, the
mathematical relation between satellite altitude ( h )
and footprint area radius ( x ) can be referred to as
h(2h  h)
x  0.54re arccos[1  ] (5)
2re (h  re )
where, h and re are the mathematical symbol of
SG and OG (the radius of the earth) in km,
respectively, and x is the mathematical symbol of
the arc of AG representing the radius of satellite
footprint area on the ground surface in nm.
As a result, in order to avoid the collision of
message transmitted in the different time slots from
the different SOTDMA cell areas for all AIS
transmitters, as the AIS satellite altitude remains
constant, the satellite footprint area should be
designed to meet the following equation
h(2h  hmax )
x  xmax  re arccos[1  ] (6)
2re (h  re )
Fig. 5 Geometry of satellite altitude, footprint area and
signal path difference.
166 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model
  hma
 re sin arccos[1 
  2
7. Comparison of Coverage Area between BSAmax  arcsin
AIS Satellite and Normal LEO Satellite  h  hm
  hmax (2h  hmax )  
 re sin arccos[1   ] 
The satellite FOV (field of view) is used to expressBSA  arcsin    2re (h  re ) 
max  (9)
the coverage area on the ground surface that the signal  h  hmax 
 
sensors installed on the satellites can provide. Fig. 6  
illustrates the normal satellite space geometry, where Consequently, the comparison of coverage area
SP and SQ are tangential with the earth surface, between space-based AIS satellite and normal LEO
respectively. satellite by considering the satellite altitude (h) of
Therefore, the maximum satellite FOV ( PSQmax ) integer times of one hundred from 40 km to 1,500 km
can be determined in radian by: is summarized in Table 2 based on 6,371 km of the
re earth radius, where r representing the relative error
PSQmax    2[arccos( )] (7)
h  re of the radius of the satellite footprint on the ground
And the maximum radius of satellite footprint area and d representing the relative error of the FOV are
on the ground surface ( y max ) can correspondingly defined by Eqs. (1) and (2) respectively.
y  xmax
determined in nm by: r  max  100% (10)
r ymax
ymax  0.54re arccos( e ) (8)
h  re
However, for the AIS satellite system, as the
maximum margin of the signal path difference should
be taken into account in order to avoid the collision of
messages transmitted in the different time slots from
the different SOTDMA cell areas, the maximum
radius of satellite footprint area on the ground surface
( xmax ) should be determined by Eq. (6) when the
satellite altitude is fixed. As a result, the maximum
FOV ( BSAmax ) for AIS satellite system in radian
should be identified by: Fig. 6 Maxi mum FOV for normal satellite system.

Table 2 Comparison of coverage area between AIS satellite and normal LEO satellite.
h (km) ymax (nm) xmax (nm) r (%) PSQmax (°) BSAmax (°) d (%)
400 1,188.36 347.45 70.76 140.4 95.1 32.30
500 1,320.46 373.16 71.74 136.0 90.4 33.54
600 1,437.72 396.53 72.41 132.1 86.2 34.77
700 1,543.62 418.01 72.92 128.6 83.4 35.94
800 1,640.44 437.88 73.30 125.4 78.9 37.05
900 1,729.78 456.38 73.62 122.4 75.8 38.08
1,000 1,812.82 473.68 73.87 119.6 72.9 39.04
1,100 1,890.46 489.94 74.08 117.0 70.3 39.94
1,200 1,963.39 505.28 74.27 114.6 67.9 40.78
1,300 2,932.17 519.78 74.42 112.3 65.6 41.56
1,400 2,097.27 533.53 74.56 110.1 63.6 42.29
1,500 2,159.06 546.60 74.68 108.1 61.6 42.98
Average 74.40 Average 38.20
 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model
PSQmax  BSAmax
d   100% (11)
PSQmax
Therefore, similar to the normal LEO satellite
system, the signal coverage area of AIS satellite
system grows as the satellite altitude rises but the
FOV reduces. Nevertheless, as for the same satellite
altitude, the signal coverage area and the FOV of the
AIS satellite system both are much less than those of
the normal LEO satellite system. For example, at 700
km orbit altitude, the radius of the maximum signal
coverage area and the maximum FOV of the AIS
satellite system are 418.01 nm and 83.4 °whereas the
normal LEO satellite system reserves 1,543.62 nm and
128.6°, respectively. That is to say when designing
AIS satellite system at 700 km of the satellite altitude,
it should be considered that the satellite FOV may be
fixed within 834° rather than 128.6° to avoid the
collision of messages transmitted in the different time
slots from the different SOTDMA cell areas. On
average, compared to the normal LEO satellite system,
the maximum signal coverage area and the maximum
FOV of AIS satellite system are reduced by 74.4%
and 38.2% at the satellite altitude from 400 km to
1,500 km.
8. Analysis on Power of Signal Received by
Satellites
According to the Friis transmission equation and
considering the signal power attenuation caused by the
transmitter waveguide and the atmospheric influence,
the power of signal ( Pr ) transmitted from the
shipborne AIS transmitters on the earth ground and
received by the satellite AIS receiver can be obtained
by:

Pr  Pt  Gt  Gr  20 log 10( )  P (12)
4 d
Where, Pr is the power of signal received by the
satellite AIS receiver in dBm, Pt is the shipborne
AIS transmission power in dBm, Gt and Gr
represent the transmitter gain and the satellite receiver
gain in dB, respectively,  is the AIS radio wave
167
length in km, d is the signal path distance in km
between the shipborne AIS transmitter and the
satellite receiver, P is the total signal power loss in
dB caused by the AIS transmitter waveguide, the
inonspheric polarization and the atmospheric
absorption.
As the signal path distance (d ) between the
shiborne AIS transmitter and the satellite receiver
varies with the radius of satellite footprint area on the
ground surface ( x) at a satellite orbit, according to
Fig. 7, where point T is a shipborne AIS transmitter,
mn is the horizontal line tangential with the earth
surface, OZ is the line passing through T and
vertical with mn , then the relation between d and
x can be determined by
x
a (13)
re
d 2  re2  (h  re ) 2  2re (h  re ) cos (14)
( h  re ) sin a
d (15)
cos
where,  is the central angle in radian
corresponding to the arc of x ,  is the signal
radiation angle above the horizontal plane in radian.
As a result, suppose the satellite receiver gain ( Gr )
being 3 dB, the total signal power loss ( P ) is
assumed by approximate 2.2 dB [9], and the AIS
transmitter gain ( Gt ) can be determined by the
radiation pattern equation of Eq. (16) based on
halfwave dipole antenna which is widely used for the
shipborne AIS transmitter,
Fig. 7 Relation between signal path distance and footprint
radius.
168 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model

 graphical relation between the radius of the satellite

cos[( ) sin  ]
2 coverage area on the earth and the AIS message power
f ( )  (16)
cos that could be received by the satellite at various orbits
Power of signal received by AIS satellite is from 400 km to 1,500 km with the default setting of
obviously the function of the signal traveling path and 12 W and 2 W for shipborne AIS transmitter power,
the transmitter gain at an orbit. Figs. 8 and 9 show the respectively.

Fig. 8 Coverage area and message power received at orbits for 12 W power.

Fig. 9 Coverage area and message power received at orbits for 2 W power.
 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model
Therefore, AIS message power of signal received
by the satellite reduces as the orbit altitude rises. For a
constant orbit, except that it is null around the
sub-satellite point due to the halfwave dipole
properties, the graphical relation between the signal
power received by satellites and the radius of the
satellite coverage area on the earth is like a
left-skewed curve, i.e., the power received will
quickly reach the peak before the gradual reduction as
the radius of the satellite coverage area on the earth
increases. For example, if the satellite is orbiting at the
altitude of 700 km, the maximum message power to
be received for the AIS transmitter working on 12 W
will be around 94 dBm transmitting from the position
of about 280 nm from the sub-satellite point.
As the radius of AIS satellite footprint area should
be limited within xmax at various orbit altitudes to
avoid the collision of messages transmitted in the
different time slots from the different SOTDMA cell
areas according to Table 2, the percentages that the
power of signal received within xmax area received
by satellites is more than the AIS receiver sensitivity
required at various orbit altitudes for the different
shipborne AIS transmitter power are shown in Fig. 10.
As a result, when shipborne AIS transmitters
Fig. 10 Percent of power of signal received by satellites with sufficient margin varying from orbits.
169
located within xmax area are working on the power
of 12 W, the majority of power of signal received by
satellites orbiting from the altitudes of 400 km to 1500
km is more than AIS receiver sensitivity. All
messages transmitted from the ground will be received
with the sufficient margin of signal power by the
satellites orbiting at 400-700 km altitudes. Even for
the 1,500 km—altitude satellites there is about 87% of
messages with the sufficient margin of signal power
can be received. By comparison, most power of signal
received by LEO satellites is rather weaker than the
AIS receiver sensitivity when shipborne AIS
transmitters located within xmax area are working on
the power of 2 W, especially none of power of signal
received by the satellites running at the altitudes of
900 km or above are sufficient.
9. Analysis on CIR of Signal Received by
Satellites
Even though scenario two of message collision can
be avoided by using distance delay, scenario one may
still occur. The signal interference simultaneously
received by satellites should be avoided in order to
correctly decode the messages. The minimum CIRT
(carrier to co-channel interference ratio threshold) for
170 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model

Fig. 11 Percent of CIR of signal received by satellites more than CIRT varying from orbits.

a typical AIS receiver is required as 10 dB. To analyze of 12 W and 2 W, respectively.

the quantity that the difference between any two
signals transmitted within xmax area and received by
AIS satellites is more than the required CIRT as
satellite altitude varies, the percent of CIR of signal
received by AIS satellite more than CIRT required at
an orbit altitude is defined by
xmax
 g ( x)dx
CIR%  0
xmax
% (17)
 f ( x)dx
0 transmitters located within xmax area, about 95% of
where, g (x) is the function of the total amount that
the difference between any two power of signals
transmitted within xmax area and received by AIS
satellites is more than the required CIRT, and f (x)
is the function of the total amount of the difference
between any two signals transmitted within xmax
area and received by AIS satellites.
Fig. 11 shows the percentages that the difference
between any two signals transmitted within xmax
area and received by AIS satellites is more than the
required CIRT at various satellite altitudes when
shipborne AIS transmitters are working on the power
Even though the percentages that the power
difference between any two signals transmitted within
xmax area and received by AIS satellites is more than
the required CIRT rises as the satellite orbits increases,
the space-based AIS system generally suffers from the
insufficient CIR irrespective of satellite orbits and
shipborne AIS transmitters powers. For instance, if at
the same slot the AIS satellite orbiting at the altitude
of 700 km simultaneously receives one message
transmitted from 12 W-power shipborne AIS
these pairs of messages cannot be correctly decoded
due to the insufficient CIR.
10. Conclusions
By using the distance delay in the AIS buffer
structure to avoid the collision of messages
transmitted in the different time slots from the
different SOTDMA cell areas, compared to the normal
LEO satellite system, on average the maximum signal
coverage area and the maximum FOV of the AIS
satellite system are reduced by 74% and 38%. The
appropriate orbit altitude of the AIS satellite system
 Detection Probability Analysis of Space-Based AIS Signal by Using Geometrical Model
should be around 600-700 km with the maximum
signal coverage of 800  800 nm area and the
maximum FOV of 80.0°as the majority of power of
signal transmitted from shipborne 12 W-power AIS
transmitters located within the maximum signal
coverage area can be received with the sufficient
margin of signal power by the LEO satellite. But due
to the insufficient CIR of signal received, for the
space-based AIS system, the measure of separating the
collision messages should be further taken to correctly
detect and decode the messages and increase the
probability and the reliability of AIS signal reception
from space.
Acknowledgement
The research is sponsored by Science and
Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality
(Project No.: 13510501600).
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