02 June 2020

2 June 2020

Jawad Shamim , CFA

Pakistan By the Numbers +92 21 35141169 | jawad.shamim@efg-hermes.com

Farah Hamza
+20 2 35356289 | fhamza@efg-hermes.com

Haris Imtiaz
Budget may see stock-specific news, but COVID-19 +92 21 35141165 | haris.imtiaz@efg-hermes.com
dynamics still drive the market Simon Kitchen
+44 7470 384 690 | skitchen@efg-hermes.com

Macro Strategy Report

What to watch: Budget, COVID-19 lockdown, Sukuk payment, and external flows
Budget 2021 is expected on 12 June, and we expect related newsflows to drive the market for the next two weeks. The gov’t has already
rolled out a cPKR1.2trn (USD7.3bn) relief package for COVID-19, so further stimulus looks unlikely in our view. However, certain supportive
measures for specific industries and lower income groups cannot be ruled out – these would likely be financed through a token cut in
development expenditure and new policies to increase the tax base. Recent newsflow implies that the IMF has suggested that the FY2019-
20 tax target of PKR5.1trn be carried forward to next year, requiring an aggressive 30% increase from the estimated collection for FY20.
We highlight that COVID-19 remains the key ongoing issue, with the intensity of the lockdown playing a major role in how the budget pans
out and gets applied. Sector specific news could come in to play as the market reacts to the budget.

Lockdown eased and cases jumped: May witnessed a nationwide easing of the lockdown, as the gov’t eventually succumbed to continued
business pressure. Businesses and manufacturing resumed operations, while public transport came back online and economic activity sped
up. However, the number of cases and casualties have risen exponentially (reached c66k and c1.4k, respectively). The rise is worrisome, and
the trend of cases will be key to shaping future decisions – already, risk protocols are not being implemented rigorously and the govt. might
have to consider reversing the relaxation of the lockdown.

Energy Sukuk: Finally, after a long wait, the energy Sukuk-II was completed towards the end of May. The gov’t raised PKR200bn at 6M
KIBOR minus 10bps (the issue was oversubscribed). This will help reduce circular debt (currently cPKR2.1trn, 5% of FY2019-20 GDP) and
improve companies’ liquidity situation across the energy chain. The payment has yet to be released by the gov’t, but we expect major
interest in IPPs including HUBC and KAPCO, in our coverage. PSO, PPL, and OGDC might also attract attention depending on how the
proceeds are directed.

External flows: The government has been very proactive in sourcing emergency funding from IFIs and official creditors to help shore up
reserves, reducing ST external vulnerabilities, and providing support to the PKR. Meanwhile, the pace of carry trade outflows has eased off
significantly - net outflows totalled cUSD151mn in May vs. USD601mn in April - the outstanding balance of foreign money still stands at
USD627mn.

What to Buy: becoming cautious on cyclicals, banks offer great value, and KAPCO in focus
Our model portfolio’s performance was weak in May, dragged by financials. Our equal-weighted and free float-weighted basket lost 3.9%
and 3.5%, respectively, vs. -1.0% for the KSE100 Index. During the month, we changed our basket by reducing our cement sector
exposure in favour of banks – we think valuations are now very attractive given that we expect major rate cuts are behind us now.
Meanwhile, we still watch out for a correction in high-beta names, following their outperformance in April and flattish display in May. Our
portfolio now comprises of INDU, LUCK, MCB, UBL, HBL, OGDC, KAPCO and FFC.

Disclosure Appendix at the back of this report contains important disclosures, analyst certifications Page 1 of 17
and the status of non-US analysts
Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Contents

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Pakistan top picks list

Our eight top picks consist of INDU, LUCK, HBL, MCB, UBL, KAPCO, OGDC and FFC. Our portfolio offers
average upside of 73%.

Figure 1: Sector breakdown of KSE100 and our EQ and FF weighted portfolio

Energy Financials Materials Consumer Utilities Others

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
KSE100 Port FF Port EQ

Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 2: Portfolio performance vs. KSE100 Figure 3: Portfolio performance vs. MSCI FEM
In PKR returns since launched in Oct 2017 In USD returns since launched in Oct 2017

PK FF PK EQ KSE100 PK FF PK EQ MSCI FEM

30% 20%

20% 10%
0%
10%
-10%
0%
-20%
-10%
-30%
-20% -40%
-30% -50%
-40% -60%
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20
Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20
Jul-18

Jul-19
Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20
Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20
Jul-18

Jul-19
Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Figure 4: Pakistan macroeconomic indicators (year-end June)

2018a 2019a 2020e 2021e 2022e

Real sector
Nominal GDP (USDbn) 315 283 260 271 287
Real GDP growth 5.8% 3.3% -0.8% 2.0% 2.7%
Population (mn) 213 217 221 225 230
Per capita GDP (USD) 1,479 1,306 1,176 1,202 1,250
CPI inflation (% avg.) 3.9% 6.8% 10.9% 6.7% 7.8%

External sector
Trade balance (USDbn) (31.8) (28.5) (17.3) (17.1) (20.6)
Services balance (USDbn) (6.1) (4.3) (3.9) (4.4) (4.4)
Private transfers (net) (USDbn) 19.9 21.8 20.4 18.3 20.2
Current account balance (USDbn) (19.9) (13.8) (3.9) (6.4) (8.4)
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.3% -4.9% -1.5% -2.4% -2.9%
FDI (USDbn) 3.5 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.6

Fiscal sector
Tax revenues (USDbn) 40.6 32.9 29.7 33.8 37.9
Primary balance (% of GDP) -2.2% -3.5% -3.7% -1.0% 0.5%
Fiscal balance (USDbn) (20.5) (25.3) (25.1) (17.3) (14.3)
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -6.5% -8.9% -9.7% -6.4% -5.0%
Net domestic debt (% of GDP) 47.7% 53.8% 59.1% 60.4% 59.5%
Gross external gov't debt (% of GDP) 20.4% 23.9% 32.8% 32.2% 31.1%

Monetary sector
NFAs in the banking system (USDbn) (1.7) (9.4) (6.5) (2.0) 0.5
Foreign reserves (USDbn) 11.4 9.3 14.4 18.1 22.1
Exchange rate vs. USD (avg.) 110.0 136.1 160.0 165.0 170.0
Benchmark lending rate (EOP) 6.5% 12.3% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Broad money growth 9.7% 11.3% 13.0% 13.5% 10.8%
Private sector credit growth (%, EOP) 14.9% 11.6% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0%
Private sector credit (% of GDP) 17.3% 17.3% 16.0% 15.5% 15.6%
Source: State Bank of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, EFG Hermes estimates

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Leaders, laggards, and stocks in focus

Figure 5: KSE100 Index performance

KSE100 Index, 5-day ADVT in USDmn, RHS USDmn

Request for ECC defers electicity SBP suspends G20 debt relief Moody's rating on
additional IMF adjustments country placed 70
dividends for memorandum
35,000 financing banks recieved under review 65
200bps rate
Construction cut 60
33,000 package unveiled 55
Energy Sukuk 50
31,000 Pakistan retains
launched 45
Fuel prices status in MSCI
are cut Lockdown EM Index 40
29,000
IMF approves down by extended but 35
FATF extends MPC delivers
USD1.4bn RFI ease off certain
27,000
PKR weakens to a
deadline
average another 100bps AIIB and WB to 30
new high of 168 G20 debt 20% restrictions provide USD1bn
cut
relief loan 25
25,000 20

11-May-20

16-May-20
01-May-20

06-May-20

21-May-20

26-May-20
01-Apr-20

06-Apr-20

11-Apr-20

16-Apr-20

21-Apr-20

26-Apr-20

Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 6: Performances remain mixed, Pakistan down 3% in May Figure 7: Pakistan vs. commodities and index aggregates
MSCI IMI indices (returns are calculated monthly) KSE100, USD returns

%LCL %USD Month YTD

25% 50%
40%
20%
30%
15% 20%
10%
10% 0%
5% -10%
-20%
0% -30%
-40%
-5%
-50%
-10% -60%
EM FX

MSCI EM
MSCI FM

Coal

Urea
Oil

Copper

Cotton

Pakistan
Vietnam
Nigeria

Morocco

Peru

Colombia
Kenya
Thailand

KSA
Bangladesh

UAE
Indonesia

Philippines

Pakistan
Egypt
Argentina

Sri lanka

Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Figure 8: Best performing stocks in KSE100

Ranked according to monthly performance; prices are as of 29 May 2020

Ticker Sector Month YTD Mcap ADVT 3M P/E (x) P/B (x) DY (%) ND/EBITDA(x)

(%) (%) (USDmn) (USDmn) 2019 2020 2021 Trailing Trailing Trailing
HUMNL Communication 140.7 261.4 67.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A 4.2 N/A N/A
TRG Industrials 61.8 16.3 95.5 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
EFUG Financials 38.3 21.4 152.0 0.0 N/A 9.8 N/A 1.3 8.1 N/A
SHEL Energy 26.6 -30.1 116.1 0.2 N/A N/A 7.7 3.8 N/A N/A
SCBPL Financials 23.2 10.5 572.1 0.0 N/A 5.2 N/A 1.3 12.4 N/A
FATIMA Materials 20.7 8.0 369.8 0.0 4.1 4.8 5.5 0.8 6.1 0.8
NESTLE Staples 20.6 -14.0 1911.1 0.0 N/A 44.4 N/A 95.7 2.2 1.7
PTC Communication 17.5 -3.7 265.5 0.0 7.6 N/A N/A 0.5 5.9 0.9
UNITY Staples 16.7 -16.5 44.9 1.0 N/A 13.1 N/A 1.3 0.7 4.3
ABOT Health Care 11.3 13.6 299.5 0.1 N/A 26.6 N/A 3.7 1.5 -0.7
Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 9: Worst performing stocks in KSE100

Ranked according to monthly performance; prices are as of 28 May 2020

Ticker Sector Month YTD Mcap ADVT 3M P/E (x) P/B (x) DY (%) ND/EBITDA (x)
(%) (%) (USDmn) (USDmn) 2019 2020 2021 Trailing Trailing Trailing
KTML Discretionary -15.1 -11.1 62.3 0.1 6.2 821.2 N/A 0.4 5.2 4.5
BAHL Financials -10.5 -29.0 351.0 0.2 5.2 4.8 4.2 0.9 6.8 N/A
UBL Financials -8.1 -38.6 720.8 1.1 5.8 5.8 4.5 0.6 12.5 N/A
MLCF Materials -8.0 12.1 174.6 2.2 N/A N/A 14.1 0.8 1.6 5.5
IGIHL Financials -7.7 12.0 197.3 0.0 N/A 78.7 N/A 0.8 1.3 N/A
JLICL Financials -7.6 -11.6 163.2 0.0 N/A 15.4 N/A 2.3 5.3 N/A
MCB Financials -7.5 -24.1 1065.2 0.8 7.6 6.8 6.3 1.0 12.3 N/A
ASL Materials -7.4 -2.5 43.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A 12.5 N/A 8.3
HUBC Utilities -7.2 -16.3 621.6 1.4 4.6 5.0 2.9 1.5 N/A 2.8
EPCL Materials -6.8 -20.6 145.9 0.6 5.7 8.5 5.3 1.3 3.1 2.3
Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 10: Stocks with largest increase in liquidity on KSE100

Ranked according to change in monthly ADVT relative to three-month average; prices are as of 29 May 2020
20 days
ADVT ADVT P/E P/B DY ND/EBITDA
Ticker Sector Month YTD Mcap vs 3M
20 days 3M (x) (x) (%) (x)
ADVT
(%) (%) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (%) 2019 2020 2021 Trailing Trailing Trailing
HUMNL Communication 140.7 261.4 67.2 0.3 0.1 256.7 N/A N/A N/A 4.2 N/A N/A
FHAM Financials 0.6 1.8 12.2 0.0 0.0 252.9 N/A 6.2 N/A 0.6 14.2 3.1
FATIMA Materials 20.7 8.0 369.8 0.1 0.0 184.1 4.1 4.8 5.5 0.8 6.1 0.8
IGIHL Financials -7.7 12.0 197.3 0.1 0.1 164.2 N/A 78.7 N/A 0.8 1.3 N/A
SHEL Energy 26.6 -30.1 116.1 0.2 0.1 113.2 N/A N/A 7.7 3.8 N/A N/A
COLG Staples 1.8 -5.4 776.2 0.0 0.0 92.2 N/A 27.9 N/A 7.9 1.9 -1.1
GSKCH Staples 4.6 -4.1 172.9 0.1 0.1 82.8 N/A 18.6 N/A 4.6 2.1 -1.2
SCBPL Financials 23.2 10.5 572.1 0.0 0.0 72.0 N/A 5.2 N/A 1.3 12.4 N/A
SEARL Health Care 8.3 6.4 261.6 1.6 1.0 61.8 14.7 20.0 N/A 3.0 1.2 1.1
PSEL Discretionary 3.2 0.0 199.4 0.0 0.0 60.9 N/A N/A N/A 1.0 N/A 11.7
Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Foreigners – Net foreign buying and ownership stats

Figure 11: Foreign ownership and securities in USD Figure 12: Foreigners continued to be net sellers in May albeit at a
slower pace
Monthly net buying, USDmn

FO in USD bn FO % of MCAP (RHS)

10 12.0% 100

9 11.5%
50
11.0%
8
10.5% 0
7 10.0%
6 9.5% (50)

5 9.0%
(100)
8.5%
4
8.0% (150)
3 7.5%
(200)
2 7.0%

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19
Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20
May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19
Feb-19
Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-20
Nov-16
May-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Source: State bank of Pakistan, EFG Hermes calculations Source: NCCPL, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 13: Portfolio investments saw further hefty outflows in April Figure 14: Global EM ETFs flows remain negative in May

In USDmn
Monthly ETF flows in USDmn into major EM ETFs

FDI FPI
1,000
8,000
500 6,000

0 4,000
2,000
(500)
0
(1,000) (2,000)

(1,500)
(4,000)
(6,000)
(2,000)
(8,000)
Dec-18
Jun-18

Jun-19

Dec-19
Aug-18

Aug-19
Apr-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20
Oct-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Nov-18

Mar-19

Nov-19
Jan-19

Jan-20
Mar-20
May-18
Jul-18

May-19
Jul-19

May-20
Sep-18

Sep-19

Source: State Bank of Pakistan, EFG Hermes calculations

Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

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Macro Strategy Report

Figure 15: Keeping an eye on real estate prices as currency stabilises Figure 16: Market risk premium shrinks as market rerates and yields
and inflation eases come off sharply
Y-o-Y growth, USD/PKR change in an inverse scale KSE100 EY, 3M T-bill yield in (%)

PK house PK residence USDPKR move CPI YoY 3M Tbill yield 12M forward EY

50% 25%

40% 20%

30%
15%
20%
10%
10%
5%
0%
0%
-10%

Jan-17
Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
Jan-20
May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20
Jun-14

Dec-16

Jun-19
Aug-13

Aug-18
Mar-13

Jan-14

Jan-19
Apr-15
Sep-15

Oct-17
Mar-18

Apr-20
Nov-14

Feb-16
Jul-16

Nov-19
May-17

Source: Zameen, Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

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 Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Valuation – Market aggregates

Figure 17: Despite the recovery, the market is still trading at nearly Figure 18: Price-to-book is well below its LT average
6x fwd P/E
MSCI PK IMI with bands showing 12m forward P/E ratios P/B, +/- 1SD

3,000 12x 2.3

11x 2.1
2,500 1.9
10x
9x 1.7
2,000
8x 1.5
7x 1.3
1,500
1.1
6x
1,000 0.9
0.7
500 0.5

Nov-17
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
May-17

May-18
Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Jun-11

Aug-12

Dec-14

Jun-18
Jan-12

Sep-16
Apr-17

Jan-19
Aug-19
Mar-13
Oct-13

Mar-20
May-14

Jul-15
Feb-16

Nov-17

Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 19: Actual and 12M forward return on equity Figure 20: Market valuation is low, with relatively decent expected
earnings growth compared to peers
ROEs for MSCI Pakistan IMI X-axis: 2020-22e EPS CAGR; Y-axis: 2020e P/E

Actual ROE Frwd ROE

25
33%
Hundreds

KSA TH
28% 20 MY
MA
PE
23% PH VN
15 AR UAE

18% KE
10 ID
13% EG
PK
5
8% LK NG
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
May-17
Nov-17
May-18
Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20

0
5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations Source: Company data, EFG Hermes calculations

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

Valuation – Our coverage

Figure 21: EFG Hermes Pakistan and peers stocks coverage valuation table
Close TP MTD YTD ADVT MCAP P/E (x) P/B (x) DY (%)
Ticker Sector Rating
(LC) (LC) (%) (%) (USDmn) (USDmn) 2019 2020 2021 2020 2020
HCAR PA Discretionary 183 221 Buy 7.03 -16.31 0.24 163 6.8 28.9 22.9 1.56 0.00
INDU PA Discretionary 974 1472 Buy 0.27 -16.19 0.11 475 6.0 13.2 9.8 2.08 3.40
PSMC PA Discretionary 170 136 Sell 3.38 -26.22 0.28 87 NA NA 13.3 0.60 0.00
SEARL PA Healthcare 204 196 Buy 9.81 7.88 1.16 269 21.6 23.5 15.4 3.32 1.92
CTC SL Staples 950 1362 Buy -5.04 -13.70 0.03 955 9.6 8.9 8.4 20.4 11.0
BATBC BD Staples 908 1201 Neutral NA -6.42 0.28 1927 16.8 14.5 11.9 3.73 3.32
MBL BD Staples 1563 1572 Neutral NA -6.62 0.04 581 24.3 18.3 17.9 25.3 5.5
OLYMPI BD Staples 150 234 Buy NA -8.97 0.03 354 16.0 14.1 12.2 3.60 3.73
SINGER BD Discretionary 147 211 Buy NA -18.51 0.11 173 14.4 12.1 10.0 3.81 4.14
BAFL PA Financials 28.6 61 Buy -5.24 -37.53 0.29 315 3.72 3.14 2.78 0.51 9.6
HBL PA Financials 96 185 Buy -4.88 -39.17 1.18 873 10.5 4.96 3.10 0.64 6.3
MCB PA Financials 148 255 Buy -9.38 -27.63 0.67 1092 8.0 5.7 4.73 1.06 11.5
MEBL PA Financials 60 105 Buy -9.33 -37.45 0.53 475 4.89 3.81 3.61 1.14 8.4
UBL PA Financials 96 205 Buy -9.95 -41.41 0.94 733 6.2 3.87 2.93 0.62 13.5
NBP PA Financials 26.8 51 Buy -5.47 -38.11 0.18 354 2.22 1.97 1.75 0.23 0.00
COMB SL Financials 65 110 Neutral 7.82 -31.79 0.75 334 4.65 4.07 3.27 0.47 6.9
HNB SL Financials 104 235 Buy -1.14 -39.66 0.26 224 3.88 2.94 2.40 0.33 6.3
SAMP SL Financials 120 214 Buy 0.84 -26.11 0.47 246 4.50 3.67 2.85 0.38 5.8
EQBNK KN Financials 35.8 74 Buy -4.91 -33.08 1.26 1264 6.6 5.1 4.13 1.05 7.0
BRAC BD Financials 31.9 76 Buy NA -44.13 0.20 464 6.8 5.8 4.69 0.86 2.59
CITYBA BD Financials 17.1 23.7 Sell NA -18.96 0.18 205 6.2 6.2 5.2 0.59 2.42
GUARANTY NL Financials 24.4 44.8 Buy 16.19 -17.85 3.22 1995 3.82 3.34 3.12 0.90 14.4
STANBIC NL Financials 35.8 41.8 Neutral 35.09 -12.68 0.15 1006 5.3 5.2 4.91 1.17 7.0
ZENITHBA NL Financials 17.5 33.8 Buy 22.03 -6.18 2.62 1522 2.76 2.64 2.33 0.58 18.4
Note: Pakistan top picks are in bold
Prices as of 28 May 2020
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, EFG Hermes estimates

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Figure 22: EFG Hermes Pakistan and peers stocks coverage valuation table (continued)
Close TP MTD YTD ADVT MCAP P/E (x) P/B (x) DY (%)
Ticker Sector Rating
(LC) (LC) (%) (%) (USDmn) (USDmn) 2019 2020 2021 2020 2020
FFC PA Fertilizers 109 121 Buy -2.80 7.1 0.70 859 7.8 7.4 6.8 2.05 9.7
FFBL PA Fertilizers 17.6 31.0 Buy 6.8 -9.84 0.11 102 19.1 10.7 5.3 0.96 1.51
EFERT PA Fertilizers 60 72 Neutral -2.53 -18.15 1.10 497 4.73 6.3 6.0 1.59 12.5
ABUK EY Fertilizers 12.0 27.0 Buy -23.33 -42.80 0.54 956 5.5 5.8 4.93 2.10 10.8
EGCH EY Fertilizers 3.52 4.50 Sell -16.59 -34.57 0.22 199 NA NA 10.8 0.55 0.00
MFPC EY Fertilizers 37.5 98 Buy -10.07 -39.45 0.05 544 5.2 3.77 3.12 0.52 8.0
SAFCO AB Fertilizers 76 85 Neutral 6.6 -2.58 8.2 8380 15.5 13.3 12.8 3.46 6.6
LUCK PA Cement 449 589 Buy -4.46 4.92 4.20 903 12.7 10.9 11.3 1.26 2.45
PIOC PA Cement 59 34.0 Buy -0.42 94 1.64 83 13.2 5.5 NA 0.84 0.00
DGKC PA Cement 82 81 Neutral -5.33 10.4 3.00 223 11.0 17.6 12.0 0.46 4.88
CHCC PA Cement 86 31.8 Sell -6.36 62 1.32 104 6.0 NA 23.6 1.33 0.00
KOHC PA Cement 135 102 Buy -7.86 74 0.61 168 8.1 6.9 10.3 1.11 0.74
FCCL PA Cement 17.2 13.0 Sell 0.88 10.5 0.96 147 8.4 23.3 36.8 1.20 2.91
MLCF PA Cement 25.8 34.0 Buy -8.41 11.5 2.84 176 6.2 NA 14.9 0.82 0.00
ARCC EY Cement 2.98 7.4 Buy -13.37 -11.04 0.02 71 39.0 NA 12.6 0.95 0.00
OCOI OM Cement 0.23 0.33 Neutral -2.54 -2.13 0.02 198 9.9 9.0 7.3 0.46 7.7
RCCI OM Cement 0.36 0.39 Neutral -5.79 -15.96 0.12 186 31.7 25.0 15.9 0.49 3.59
BMBC KN Cement 44.0 76 Sell -2.44 -45.00 0.00 149 NA 33.4 17.6 0.49 1.50
DANGCEM NL Cement 139 126 Neutral 4.14 -2.46 0.83 6556 11.7 11.1 13.7 2.86 6.3
WAPCO NL Cement 11.6 19.0 Buy -1.69 -24.18 0.26 519 7.7 4.38 3.74 0.44 11.4
TWIGA TZ Cement 2200 2413 Buy NA 10.0 0.00 171 7.2 7.4 7.3 1.68 12.2
OGDC PA Energy 111 181 Buy 5.3 -22.07 2.91 2963 4.31 4.32 4.25 0.71 10.8
PPL PA Energy 92 162 Neutral 0.88 -32.82 2.74 1557 4.49 4.57 4.49 0.78 6.3
POL PA Energy 319 447 Neutral 0.34 -28.64 1.22 562 5.4 4.72 4.49 2.17 18.8
PSO PA Energy 160 294 Buy 3.59 -16.53 1.50 466 4.07 3.92 3.65 0.53 8.9
MARI PA Energy 1244 1401 Neutral 6.3 -5.06 0.40 1031 6.8 6.2 6.3 1.85 0.46
PAEL PA Industrials 23.2 19.0 Sell -3.65 -14.26 0.83 72 13.8 NA 9.9 0.38 0.00
KAPCO PA Utilities 23.5 60 Buy 2.13 -25.37 0.26 129 1.58 1.16 0.96 0.39 26.6
HUBC PA Utilities 77 168 Buy -8.95 -17.87 1.26 618 8.5 3.27 3.03 1.18 6.2
DGEN OM Utilities 0.18 0.31 Buy NA -14.29 0.00 104 29.1 17.5 14.1 0.89 10.0
KEGC KN Utilities 4.88 8.3 Buy 7.3 -14.69 0.02 301 4.65 2.92 2.56 0.15 11.9
UMEM UG Utilities 246 404 Buy 0.41 5.6 0.02 106 2.64 2.24 1.88 0.41 8.9
Note: Pakistan top picks are in bold
Prices as of 28 May 2020
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, EFG Hermes estimates

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

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The context – Recent macro data

Figure 23: Exports dropped in April, but lower imports and resilient Figure 24: …supported the overall current account balance
remittances…
3M average Y-o-Y growth In USDbn

Imports Exports Remittances Oil imports Exports Non oil imports Trade balance
50% 3
40% 2
1
30%
0
20%
(1)
10%
(2)
0% (3)
-10% (4)

-20% (5)
(6)
-30%

Jun-19

Dec-19
Aug-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Apr-20
May-19

Oct-19

Feb-20
Jul-19

Nov-19
Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20
Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Source: State Bank of Pakistan, EFG Hermes calculations Source: State Bank of Pakistan, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 25: FDI’s share of financing the current account deficit Figure 26: Reserves still cover up to three months of imports
continues to improve
12M sum as a % of GDP In USDbn

Trade balance Service balance Remittances SBP reserves Other reserves Imports coverage (RHS)
FDIs CA+FDIs
10% 30 6

5% 25 5

20 4
0%
15 3
-5%
10 2
-10% 5 1

-15% 0 0
Nov-15

May-17

May-18
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15

May-16
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20

Source: State Bank of Pakistan, EFG Hermes calculations Source: State Bank of Pakistan, EFG Hermes calculations

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Figure 27: REER still 1SD below its LT average Figure 28: Policy rate has been cut as inflation declines
REER, LT average, +/- 1SD

Core inflation YoY (NFNE) YoY Headline CPI Policy rate

130 18%
125 16%
120
14%
115
12%
110
10%
105
100 8%
95 6%
90 4%
85 2%
80 0%
Nov-18
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-19
May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

Apr-14
Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20
Oct-11

Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19
Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes calculations

Figure 29: Real private sector credit growth has been trapped in negative territory since Aug 2019
Real private sector growth adjusted using headline CPI inflation

YoY Private credit growth YoY Private credit real growth

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%
Jan-13

Jan-20
Jan-12

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-19
Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16
Jul-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20
Oct-11

Jul-12
Oct-12

Jul-13
Oct-13

Jul-14
Oct-14

Jul-15
Oct-15

Oct-16

Jul-17
Oct-17

Jul-18
Oct-18

Jul-19
Oct-19

Source: State Bank of Pakistan, Reuters, EFG Hermes calculations

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Disclaimer
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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

Macro Strategy Report

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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

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Guide to Analysis
EFG Hermes investment research is based on fundamental analysis of companies and stocks, the sectors that they are exposed to, as well as the country and regional economic
environment.

In special situations, EFG Hermes may assign a rating for a stock that is different from the one indicated by the 12-month expected return relative to the corresponding target price.
For the 12-month long-term ratings for any investment covered in our research, the ratings are defined by the following ranges in percentage terms:

Rating Potential Upside (Downside) %

Buy Above 15%

Neutral (10%) and 15%
Sell Below (10%)

EFG Hermes policy is to update research reports when appropriate based on material changes in a company’s financial performance, the sector outlook, the general economic
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Pakistan By the Numbers 2 June 2020

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Sales Contact
Institutional Sales
Cairo Office: London Office New York Office
Mohamed Aly Yasser Waly Sruti Patel Karim Baghdady
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Hatem Adnan Hany Ghandour Bassam Nour Muathi Kilonzo
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