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CONFIDENCE IN AN UNCERTAIN GLOBAL MARKET?
The Business Process Framework (BPF) was introduced in 2007 to AngloGold Ashanti as part of Project ONE by Australian consultant Mick
McAlear, who has decades of experience developing world class management systems. The BPF purpose is to ensure that processes deliv-
er the business expectations established by management. The underlying theme is to reduce variation and provide clarity to the opera-
tions by stabilizing the way the company does work globally. Across cultures and languages the BPF allows each site to speak the same
business language. The BPF simply is designed around the Deming Shewart cycle of Plan-Do-Check-Act. Clarifying the process flow of
doing work allows consistent measurements and confident planning to result in delivering the expected outcomes. The pictured diagram
indicates the overall flow of the BPF. What is evident from the diagram is that every one of the activities identified in it affects, and is
affected by, every other activity in the diagram. If any activity is not designed correctly, or not executed at the right time, and in the right
way, then the quality and efficiency of every other activity will be affected. Executing each one of the activities on the below diagram
entails a significant number of decisions and actions – there are over 350 in the detail of the Business Process Framework design. Work
Management was the first portion
to be implemented globally with
the goal to execute the work con-
sistently before suggesting chang-
es to the overall process. Analyze
& Improve measures the outputs
to clearly understand when an
operation is within specifications.
This paper will only address the
portion of Integrated Planning
which is the first step to setting up
the operation for success. The
five blocks of Integrated Planning
provide a multiple-angled ap-
proach to validate the budget plan
and optimize the schedule. This
sets the Confidence Level of the
plan. The next section will intro-
duce the Confidence Level metric.
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WHAT IS A CONFIDENCE LEVEL?
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INTEGRATED PLANNING: FITTING THE PIECES TOGETHER
The purpose of Integrated Planning is to set the confidence level of we achieve the plan? The first process to Set Production Strategy
the plan. The design is a multiple angle approach to validate the looks at the critical constraint and branches the output into its key
budget plan and optimize the schedule. This first step is the “top drivers. In the case of the illustrative diagram below, hauling has
down approach” to Set Performance Targets, and answers the been branched as the critical constraint and using data available put
question of what is the operation capable to achieve? The start is to into a statistical model to simulate which drivers can be changed to
interpret the business expectations from the stakeholders and senior provide the greatest impact on the overall outcome. The other side
management, then map the flow of the key productive processes. of this strategy process is to Set Service Strategy to analyze risk
There are 3 distinct types of process dependencies: Transform, management to find the most cost effective way to sustain the pro-
Transfer, and Store. Next, historical data is gathered for each step duction activities. This is done by analyzing the criticality, failure
in the flow and the capability can be calibrated to fit a mathematical modes and effects of each critical area or equipment in the opera-
function. This technique moves away from the law of averages and tion. The result is a set of optimized work packages scheduled to the
accounts for the actual variation in process capability. From this a correct interval to reliably deliver the plan. These changes are again
statistical model is run to simulate iterations of outcomes to display modeled to reflect the proposed improvements in the Operating Mas-
a histogram distribution of the array of results possible. Then the ter Schedule distribution. Once these confidence levels are met the
target Confidence Level is determined from the histogram. The next last step is to Set Expenditure Schedule to answer the question
step is to look at the operation from the “bottom up approach” with how much will it cost? This approach adds the costing rate ranges to
the Operating Master Schedule. This takes the projected produc- each variable task into a histogram that forecasts the probable over-
tion plan with variable rates and commencement dates and inte- all cost of achieving the plan. These 5 process steps of Integrated
grates with downtime ranges expected from service and support Planning must be fed and monitored with proper measures to Ana-
work. This Schedule is in the form of a model to be simulated in lyze & Improve. This will set up the Work Management to deliver the
iterations to form a histogram of what can the operation achieve? If expected outcomes with the Right Work, in the Right Time, and the
these histograms do not align or do not match desired confidence Right Way. The last section will discuss how to implement this new
levels then the strategies must be analyzed to understand how can approach to planning and the tools that AngloGold Ashanti is using.
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IMPLEMENTATION OF INTEGRATED PLANNING
The implementation of
Integrated Planning
began in 2012 with the
roll out of Performance
Targets to the global
operations. This was an
exercise by the corpo-
rate team to begin to
understand the confi-
dence levels of each
mine’s current capabili-
ties. In 2013, the ac-
countability to Set Per-
formance Targets has
been shifted to the sites
with regional support
for implementation.
The Americas region
has mobilized to lead
the way through the
rest of the concepts of
Integrated Planning in
this years cycle to de-
velop the business plan
for 2014. The delivery
dates on completing
these tasks, illustrated
on the left, align directly
with the milestones for
Executive Committee review and Board approval. The biggest challenge in this implementation is the change management piece to drive
adoption of the new approaches to validate the plan. Following the Prosci® ADKAR® methods, Awareness and Knowledge are the key ob-
stacles in accepting this change. These hurdles are being solved with affective communication from the region through the General Man-
agers and along side on-site Business Improvement teams. The goal is to have all concepts in place this year and sustainably stable by
December 2014 to fully realize the value from this new approach.
Integrated Planning will not replace any of the site’s current planning software and methods. However, new software will be added to
import the plan data and validate it with a confidence level. The corporate team has selected South African based Cyest Corporation’s
Qerent Modeler software as the main tool for Integrated Planning. Cyest has provided a lot of customizations to deliver on the multiple
angled approach of Integrated Planning, this custom version of Qerent software has been internally named OreSim. This software pro-
vides calibration to 53 different statistical distribution functions for accurately
forecasting actual processes. For some analysis, especially with setting Pro-
duction Strategies that can vary greatly depending on site conditions, addi-
tional statistical tools that can be quickly and simply utilized by site manage-
ment. Microsoft® Excel® has been very effective at managing strategies at a
short-range and medium-range level to incorporate variation in the day-to-
day planning of the operations. The Service Strategy development will utilize
the Isograph® RCM software called Availability Workbench. This will help
facilitate FMECA (Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis) workshops to opti-
mize the maintenance intervals and work packages. Other simulation model-
ing software may also be investigated to ensure the best possible analysis
will be done for the operations. These tools will drive Confidence in Business
Process Improvement through Integrated Planning.
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AngloGold Ashanti Americas
6300 South Syracuse Way,
Suite 500
Centennial, CO 80111
Ryan Miles
Direct: +1 303 889 1478
Fax: +1 303 889 0707
Email: rmiles@anglogoldna.com
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gold
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AngloGold Ashanti gold
Third largest gold producer in the world in 2012 (Gold production of 4.16Moz)
2012 All Injury Frequency Rate (AIFR) the lowest on record at 7.72 per million
hours worked.
20 operations in 10 countries, on four continents, with corporate headquarters
in Johannesburg, South Africa
61,242 employees globally (including contractors)
Ore Reserves at end of 2011 totaled 75.6Moz and Mineral Resources of
230.9Moz. 2012 Resources increased 10.6Moz to 241.5Moz reflecting
exploration success at La Colosa and Tropicana.
AngloGold Ashanti is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the
London Stock Exchange (LSE), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Ghana
Stock Exchange (GhSE) and the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
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Global Profile gold
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Top 10 Gold Producers for 2012 gold
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Gold Prices gold
Source: http://www.prweb.com/releases/New-Years-2013/Gold-Price/prweb10282925.htm
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Gold Prices gold
Source http://www.prweb.com/releases/New-Years-2013/Gold-Price/prweb10282925.htm
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Optimize the entire process flow gold
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Why Business Process Framework?
gold
The Business Process Framework is a system for managing the work that people do.
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Integrated Planning – 4 Questions gold
What are we
capable to
achieve?
Can we actually
achieve it?
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Integrated Planning – Multiple Angle Approach gold
Shot Muck
Inventory
Open pit Performance Targets “top down approach”
Drill & Blast
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What is the Confidence Level of the Plan? gold
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Which Process Performed Better? gold
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Variability analysis using histograms gold
120
100
Frequency
80 Distribution
60
40
20
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Dividing histograms into percentiles
gold
75th Percentile
300
are below the 75th
250
percentile value.
200
150 75% of
data point •The 75th percentile
100
number of a process is
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seen as an stretch but
0
2,586 3,517 4,449 5,380 6,312 7,243 8,175 9,106 10,03810,969 achievable process target
that can be sustained if
the process is stable and
constant.
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Expressing targets in confidence levels
gold
0
2,586 3,517 4,449 5,380 6,312 7,243 8,175 9,106 10,03810,969
•A confidence level
associated with a
number, measures the
number f times out of a
100 that the number can
be expected to be
achieved.
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Impact of variation on a confidence level
gold
•Reduction of variability
increases the
predictability of the
output.
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Aligning Confidence Levels
gold
SPT output
OMS output
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Questions? gold
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